Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

Afternoon all, below is from JPM - (3rd party, not advise, usual caveats apply): Jeff Simmons view on EURUSD given midterm outcomes ** Republicans keep Senate and lose House - Assuming we get an as-expected outcome, it is unlikely we get too much activity in the markets, although the USD could sell off a bit at the margin simply on the back of any possibility of the GOP keeping both chambers being removed from the equation. I would not expect such a selloff to exceed 50bp, and very likely it would be a good bit less than this barring any micro-overshoot in thin Far East trading conditions. Republicans to manage to hold on to the House & keep Senate - we would likely see a fairly sharp reaction higher in the USD, perhaps 1-1.5%, as the “Trump Trade” is revisited. Needless to say, such a move would be nothing like what we saw in late 2016, but I would expect 1.1300 to be seriously challenged in eur/usd and most likely broken. Betting markets have this House outcome as roughly a 35% probability, so the odds are not so remote as to not have at least a small element of risk premium for this outcome in the markets already Overall View - We remain tactical usd bears for the time being, with an obvious sense of caution and right-sizing around this event. The levels and overall positioning remain sufficiently convincing though to hold some exposure. In the Euro, 1.1440/60 remains important, and in my mind a close above this area is required to get the idea of an imminent break of 1.13 out of the current narrative.

Decent list of recent polling visible here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ These seem to show us getting close to the 8-9% mark needed for a "blue wave" (Dems taking both houses), but reliability of US/mid term polling is still notoriously poor. Socgen impact sheet (shamelessly stolen from ZH) below.

Evening all, Pretty much all trading publications (e.g FX street) using this graphic (because it looks cool...). It's a cliche to be wary of polls ATM, but I'm leaning towards Democrats taking the lower house (Representatives), particularly due to their share of the popular vote in 2016. Will try to canvas some of our LPs and post if I see/ hear anything interesting. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Afternoon all, We've at long last pushed these out to our HTML5 trading platform. This has been released for all UK Spread Betting and Pro-CFD users. This has also been released to Australia, Dubai, Singapore and South Africa and we expect to roll this out to all of Europe by the end of the week. Feel free to post any feedback – good or bad – and I'll send it in the direction of the options desk. Thanks,

Missed all the citrus producing areas (just), from my very basic research looks like they're all concentrated in the "pan" rather than the "handle". Hurricane season still has 6 weeks to go so one to watch (same applies to sugar, RBOB and WTI - refineries in Louisiana / Texas).

Category 4 (2nd most severe) storm now: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurricane-michael-path-evacuation-florida-storm-surge-weather-forecast-today-2018-live-updates/

Oldie but Goldie, hurricane / storm Michael now looks set to hit Florida with strength. Futures have been on a downtrend of late. Reference for those out the loop:

Stand...by...for...ACTION!" "Anything can happen in the next half-hour! $TLRY (I'll see myself out).

Morning all, Below are the most recent ratios and earnings for TLRY hot off BBG this morning. Moves of the magnitude seen last night are extremely rare and, potentially unwarranted given fundamentals (as usual my opinion only, not advice etc etc.) As it stands the shares desk have been able to secure exactly 0 borrow in this stock, they'll keep trying but looking increasingly unlikely. We do offer equity options (by phone) in hours on US shares, however premiums on puts are eye-watering ATM. Will update if anything interesting pops up. Cheers, Ludwik

24% / 625 bp hike

ERDOGAN SAYS TURKEY SHOULD LOWER RATES

Erdogan on the wires saying interest rates cause inflation & that they are a tool of exploitation. No pressure on the CB then....

Morning all, Crunch time in Ankara at 1200 BST today. Reuters polls are suggesting an increase of 425 basis points to 22%. Turkish banks, among them Garanti & IS bank, seem to be calling this much higher with predictions of 500bp / 22.75%. Most US & EU banks are hiding their cards. Privately a few of our liquidity providers are suggesting 500bp over the next two Central Bank meetings and a 300bp rise today; of course these are 3rd party predictions so usual caveats apply. We intend to widen guaranteed stop distances in the run up to this (and other pairs for MPC/ ECB), either way expect some volatility across all TRY pairs.

Morning all, It is Labor [sic] Day in the US & Canada on Monday. Overall summary of changes to market hours (all hours below in UK BST): Monday 3rd September • US index futures close early at 18.00. We will make out-of-hours prices for Wall St, S&P and Nasdaq until they re-open at 23.00. • US & Canadian equities, and soft commodities, will be closed. • The VIX will close early at 16.30. • London Sugar (No. 5) closes early at 17.00. • US rates, Euribor and the Dollar Index close early at 18.00. • US metals & energies, including Nymex Crude, Gold and Silver close early at 18.00 • Brent Crude & London Gas Oil close early at 18.30. Tuesday 4th September • US grain futures open at 01.00. • Lumber futures open at 15.00, livestock at 14.30. • All other markets open as normal FX volumes will likely be pretty thin throughout the holiday. I'll try to answer any specifics you have, feel free to comment below. Cheers, Ludwik