Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

SocGen says USD/TRY is heading towards 8.00 https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/socgen-says-usdtry-is-heading-towards-800-20180820

Sure, we've been monitoring. Will look to make some changes this morning.

Erdogan: "Ignore forex prices"

So 2 speeches from Erdogan at 12:00 and 14:30 UK time (now!). Finance minister (Erdogan's son-in-law) meant to speak at 12:30 UK time. Hold on to your hats.

Meant to be 12:00 BST (14:00 Ankara). As an FYI, we've gone much wider on minimum non-gs stop distances (to prevent you opening and being closed immediately by spread). Mkt spreads were exceptionally wide this morning, I expect the same throughout any speeches/ press releases. Underlying TRY tom-next mid has also rallied 15.67% to just under 30 pts. This will likely mean it's very expensive to hold Lira shorts overnight, so please consider this going forward. You can see a (slightly delayed) indication in your watch-list.

TURKISH LIRA DROPS 13.5% TO 6.30 VERSUS THE DOLLAR - will post more when possible, be careful- huge vol. spike this AM

It depends. For shares the volume displayed would be that traded on the primary underlying exchange ( so, for example, with BARC it would be volume traded on the LSE, but not BATS, Chi-X etc). For other exchange traded products ( index futures, commodities, etc.) we'd use, broadly speaking, the volume traded in the front month underlying from the relevant exchange. So currently for the Germany 30 DFB we show volume traded in the Eurex DAX Sep18 (GXU8), and we'll move between contracts (so to DEC18, MAR 19, etc) as usual on expiry. With FX the OTC nature of the market means it's not possible to calculate, and therefore display, traded volume for the overall market. Our indicator shows the number of changes (ticks) in our aggregate bid/offer, which gives you a rough idea of volume.

Historic FT headlines on the TRY for perspective. Sep. 5, 2013 Turkey opts for stable interest rates as lira hits record low Jan. 16, 2014 Turkish lira hits new record low vs dollar Dec. 14, 2014 Turkish lira hits all-time low as Erdogan takes EU to task Apr. 15, 2015 Turkish lira hits record dollar low Apr. 24, 2015 Turkish lira sinks to record low June 8, 2015 Turkish lira hits low after election July 15, 2016 Turkish lira in steepest fall since 2008 July 20, 2016 Turkish lira falls to new record low on S&P downgrade Oct. 10, 2016 Turkish lira tumbles towards record low Oct. 13, 2016 Turkish lira sinks to fresh all-time low Oct. 17, 2016 Turkish lira hits record low (again) Oct. 28, 2016 Turkish lira at another record low Nov. 7, 2016 Turkish lira hits lowest level since at least 1981 Nov. 8, 2016 Turkish lira rout deepens to hit fresh all-time low Dec. 1, 2016 Turkish lira slumps back towards record low after Opec deal Jan. 3, 2017 Turkish lira falls to record low as higher inflation spurs selling Jan. 5, 2017 Turkish lira suffers fresh blow amid ratings junking fears Jan. 11, 2017 Lira suffers 4% plunge – steepest since failed coup Nov. 21, 2017 Turkey’s central bank takes action as lira hits record low Apr. 6, 2018 Turkish lira hits record low as political risks cast pall Apr. 9, 2018 Turkish lira hits new low as Erdogan chases high growth Apr. 10, 2018 Turkish lira strikes another record low on growing outflow fears May 3, 2018 Turkish lira sinks to new record low as inflation rises May 14, 2018 Lira hits low after Erdogan stamps authority on monetary policy May 15, 2018 Turkish lira touches yet another low as Moody’s warns on bank risk May 21, 2018 Turkish lira extends declines with heavy drop to new record May 22, 2018 Lira swings to new record low in abrupt move May 24, 2018 Turkish lira resumes slide despite rate hike June 15, 2018 Turkish lira slides almost 6% in worst week in a decade July 11, 2018 Turkish lira hits record low against the dollar Aug. 1, 2018 Turkey’s lira weakens to fresh record low against dollar Aug. 3, 2018 Turkish lira hits fresh historic low Aug. 6, 2018 Turkish lira plumbs new low after central bank’s policy tweak (which I shamelessly stole from here: https://qz.com/1350332/the-relentless-decline-of-the-turkish-lira-as-told-through-exasperated-financial-times-headlines/)

Fair point, but difficult to know for certain with Erdogan breathing down their necks.

TRY keeps on plummeting, you'd think central bank intervention is likely at some point (possibly 13th September, next MP meeting). Turkish CPI inflation now predicted (some might say optimistically) by the CB to be 13.4% in 2018.

USDTRY >5 Very important level (as previously mentioned). All eyes on the Turkish CB / govt. for any reactions.

@TrendFollower Yes, can confirm that's right. Only new positions are subject to the ESMA minimum rates, so any positions you currently hold will be unaffected.

Afternoon @cate For new positions yes, margin will be 3.33%. We won't add an additional risk premium specifically for GBP/USD (3.33% is high enough). Any existing positions you hold will remain at their current margin rates.

TD's take on it.

Hah, true. Fingers crossed.