THT

We all know that the universe, planets, Earth and Human beings work to the laws of natural growth and display Fibonacci ratios (If you stood inside a circle, outstretched limbs you'd create a pentagram shape, the pentagram is riddled with Fibonacci ratios and golden triangles) Even the "dance" that ensues between the interaction cycles of the Earth Vs Venus create a lovely pentagram, once enough rotations have passed!! So Fibonacci in the markets? - Of course it is! Depends how you use it - 1 method I use to time the markets, YES time them, is to apply a little known mathematical multiplication using a Fibonacci ratio (not shown or revealed), this method can time the big turns in the market highly accurately Elliott Wave International first introduced me to the concept of Fibonacci levels, ratios etc, but it'**** and miss in general application and I don't use it how they use it. Look at the chart of the DOW below - again this method is hit and miss - but I just wanted to show you of the beauty of the markets - Markets regardless of what most people tell you, are NOT random, they are uniquely governed by mathematics and a complex inter-relation of growth. Which when looked back on with hindsight - definite mathematical relations can be calculated and seen - I obviously know that this is virtually useless in the real world when we trade the blank right hand side of a chart!!!!!! (I've done extensive research and testing over the past decade and for me I can't find a way to use Fibonacci on price levels with a high level of certainty and by that i mean 75%+ of the time) There's definitely traders out there like Joe DiNapoli who use Fib levels to trade with and from and the likes of Elliott Wavers The thing to think about and remember is that EVERY major swing high or low in the markets will have a Fibonacci mathematical relationship to its previous or past swings - so the growth or decomposition of a market is moving in a predefined direction to satisfy that growth (knowing the end date is what eludes us traders and investors! Also as some of you are highly likely to question this post - That's fair enough - to some of you it will seem far-fetched - It did for me when I first came across it - however, repeat the method a few times and it crops up far more often than random permits. Chart below shows how PRICE can turn into TIME when Fib ratios applied (and vice versa!) DId I time the market in Feb using the method above? = NO, I used the below method Now I didn't use the above method to work this out (see below) - but this is what I produced and posted to another site back in June 2017 (confirmed by the date in the yellow box on the chart) - As you can see in June 2017 the March 2020 period was a potential highly volatile period of time for the markets and the fall down into the Dec 2018 low highlighted a possible reversal - traders would then use methods to identify the low to get in (you would NOT trade these dates blindly as they don't always work!) Now back in June 2017, a few things had not happened so I was still using a projection date of Dec 2016 for the cycles - If you move the projection date back 1 month to Nov 4th 2016 then the Dec 2018 LOW and the HIGH of FEB 2020 came in BANG on TIME

Last weeks expected and forecast bounce arrived right on schedule! This weeks Analysis:

I don't trust computers to do it properly, they'll apply perfect trades, probably ignore gaps and whatnot - I've not back tested anything for about 10 years but when i did I devoted a day or 2 to manually do it - also I'm useless at computer code, coding or anything mildly technical, so doing it manually would have been much quick than me learning to code etc

I just like to test anything I'm considering to absolute destruction, to pick outs its flaws or identify the market types it struggles in etc - just my personality though

I've always back tested over a min of 100 trades - manually on a chart not via a comp, which invariable covers numerous years if done on daily charts I also make sure I test it through a bull, bear and sideways market too to see if any affect the method - again you'll have to define how you classify those types of market. Its all about having a positive expectancy which then gives you the confidence to trade it too

Hi Because the different indicators are for the different trading methods I trade so that I see within secs if a chart is set up of not - I don't even look at the MA's or DTF for this particular trade - I have my charts formed that way so that within seconds I can determine if a trade is setting up or not from the various methods that I trade - If all the ducks aren't in a row I skip the trade opp - Price formation, then the Indicator needs to confirm = trade set-up - it is simple and highly successful for the past 11 years. The 1st chart is a different market to the one above - and I have another method that trades on MA's - the chart above is a precision based trading method, I appreciate that not all traders can use sophisticated methods, but when my income is dependent on trades taken I prefer to hold as many of the cards in my favour.

This is a continuation of the Boomer - THT Wedger (sort of, but it was within my allowable criteria) Anyone tells you, you can't use indicators to trade with ignore them, right settings, right indicator and you can beat the market

Another one from last week

This weeks outlook and analysis:

In a sim you don't have the emotions that present themselves with a real trade. Its very very different

Hi I've used MA's combo's for over 10 years - Personal preference at the end of the day, there's no perfect solution although some traders have optimised the perfect settings but its neither here nor there in terms of success. If I'm designing a method/strategy I would manually back test it over years that include a bull and bear market sequence as you'll get every possible market type/form in those periods - From that you'll be able to ascertain the % your stop needs to be when entering and it'll tell you % gain per trade (The charting software used below is NOT available on IG platform to my knowledge - so the DTF Indicator is unique to the trading software package I use)

INTER-WEEK UPDATE I don't usually do this - but the markets just closed exceptionally close to the prev swing low, it's a bearish outlook - the USA markets are at levels I've been looking for them to reverse from and the UK markets aren't as bullish as the USA. We could and I stress could - be looking at a decent rollover of the main stock markets - more analysis at the weekend Stay Safe

Hi Robert, Most indicators measure momentum in some way - what works on weekly and daily charts also works on intra-day charts I'm assuming that you're not blindly trading Indicators - I use Indicators as when my set-ups show in the markets the indicators I use trigger within a bar or 2 If you alter the period of the Indicator you should be able to get it to work in sync with price cycles

If done properly! This played out last Thursday during the day 100% Technical Analysis This happens frequently every week on various markets On Thursday the DAILY chart Higher Time Frame momentum was BULLISH - See Independent FTSE100 chart below - Moving averages, DTF, DTOSC, STSTOCH and RSI were all Bullish at the close of play Wednesday 6th May With that in mind Thursday 8th May trades are likely to form to the long side = path of least resistance most likely - remember nothing is 100% in the markets So with the above knowledge, Intra day 15 min chart - Details on the chart below: Moving averages in perfect bullish order, Triangles form - other Indicators (not shown) were used in ascertaining that long was most likely the direction of the trigger, which puts the 'edge' into my favour rather than the houses When I place a trade I already know my exit strategy - Triangles have target price level known as the trade order opens, I don't faff about trailing the market To put R value into context, if you risk 2% of your trading account per trade then 2% = 1R - as you can see I risked 2R or 4% over 2 trades to make 14% My advice would be only to take high-ultra high probability trades, put the edge in your favour and beat the markets, it can be done I promise you. If your method does not show up, you simply don't trade, just wait

This Weeks review and Outlook: WEEKLY FTSE250 Chart DAILY FTSE250 Chart

True

Same response for EW - I studied it for a long time - I think and this is from memory it'**** rate was 50% ish - a coin toss has a 50% hit rate. the main EW firm have been calling wave 5 of 5 since 1986, which means that for 34 years their assessment of the overall S&P500 has been wrong, I remember in 2003 them calling for massive lows and again in 2009 - If it worked perfectly it would be really useful - once you start labelling swing highs and lows you mentally submit to being right on them Best Information I've ever come across is from WD GANN from 100 years ago

Hi - Late to the thread! I use Fib and 8ths in my analysis - not for predictive ability but just to see if the market is making moves that are near key natural mathematical laws/ratios I've never found acceptable predictability in Fib retracements or Extensions for my style I've spoken personally to many of the worlds top Fibonacci traders and asked them outright which is the next key level exactly that will be hit and stops the market dead - none of them can say with certainty - that was enough for me to stop investigating further way back in 2010. Thomas Bulowski has tested hundreds of methods out there on his site he lists the probability of those methods, here's the links to Fib retracements: http://thepatternsite.com/fib.html http://thepatternsite.com/FibonacciTargets.html

Hi All, This one is for Technical Chart based traders - Especially those of you that might be struggling - Trading is not easy, hopefully this method will help you to improve profitability. This isn't my method, he method below has been around for decades - I've refined the method to suit me - I'd encourage you all to do the same, if not and you trade it "naked" then it's win rate and profitability suffer to the down side - The content shown below is the "Naked" method I was first alerted to this method at the 2010 Traders Expo in Las Vegas by a well known day trader This set-up is called a BOOMER - It is 2 CONSECUTIVE INSIDE BARS They happen very often - in ALL markets and ALL time-frames I don't usually give stats and probability away as I've had to test, develop and refine methods all by myself but the average profit of a Boomer is 2R (2 times the RANGE of the Trigger bar) - it won't always return 2R you'll need plans in place to deal with those times As you can see in the circled area, there's 3 price bars - The TRIGGER bar is the 3rd bar and 2nd Inside Bar in the sequence - My method that I use tells me the most likely direction of the trade (This bit has not been shown or disclosed), but you could of deciphered that for yourself as Bar in the series is a cross bar, so is the next bar and so is the 3rd and trigger bar in the sequence = price indecision at that level and odds on for a decline of some sort The ENTRY is 1 pip + the spread below the low Trigger Bar The STOP is 1 pip + the spread above the high of the trigger bar The TARGET price is 2 times the amount risked Now look back 12/14 bars and see if you can see another BOOMER set-up! The reward on this one was more than just 2R because of the narrow range of the trigger bar I would only trade this method during normal market hours not out of hours where volume and volatility are reduced I'll let you set and decide on Risk and Trade Management as that's your business OK - How many of you missed the other BOOMER set-up right at the lows in the chart above? Spend a week specifically looking for these set-ups and they'll start to pop out to you easily! Right this one worked BUT it didn't return 2R (2 times amount risked of the range of the trigger bar) - WHY DIDN'T IT WORK???? BECAUSE - that's ALL the market gave us - sometimes you get 1R out them, sometimes a loss of 1R and other times 2R+ depending on how you manage the trade Disclaimer: Not advice nor recommendation - As a trader you are 100% responsible for your trading methods, decisions, risk and risk management techniques - If you are not 100% confident or competent in any of those areas, it would be highly prudent for you to become an expert in because that will determine your success or failure in this game. The Information above is just that information for you to build upon I have deliberately left out key information that I use to trade with so that you don't blindly copy - you are highly encouraged to define your own rules, methods and trading practices No liability for anyone's losses can be held against this post - don't risk money trading/betting Hope it helps and good luck - managed correctly this can be highly profitable THT

Hi All, I thought I would publish my view and analysis of the EURUSD Market - I'll post new analysis of a weekend in the replies section below I've watched, Invested and traded the markets for the past 25 years and specifically traded the markets for the past 10 years The focus will be the EURUSD paring - Although I do trade other parings Details are on the chart - This is what I type on my charts every weekend so that I can form a logical and quick outlook for the trading week ahead At present I will not be revealing the blurred out information I take view from Monthly (not shown here) down to Daily chart time-frame - My view is that the DAILY price action drives WEEKLY price action and that in turn results in the MONTHLY price action being formed. So my entire outlook and focus is based on the DAILY followed by the WEEKLY price charts based on Technical Analysis I do NOT religiously stick to my thinking - If PRICE action rubbishes my outlook then I adapt to price action and form a new opinion based on the facts of price action - PRICE is right and rules, my outlook is highly accurate but not 100%, there will be times when I am simply wrong! I do this for the FTSE250, NASDAQ100 and Forex markets - Trading decisions are made based on the Individual charts (WEEKLY & DAILY) that form those indexes EURUSD WEEKLY CHART: Analysis for W/C 4th May 2020 EURUSD DAILY CHART: Analysis for W/C 4th May 2020

Details on Charts

Hi All, I thought I would publish my view and analysis of the markets - I'll post new analysis of a weekend I've watched, Invested and Traded the markets for the past 25 years and specifically traded the markets for the past 10 years The focus will be the FTSE250 Index as that's the Index that I trade stocks of, I'll also do at some point this weekend analysis for the EURUSD paring Details are on the chart - This is what I type on my charts every weekend so that I can form a logical and quick outlook for the trading week ahead At present I will not be revealing the blurred out information I take view from Monthly (not shown here) down to Daily chart time-frame - My view is that the DAILY price action drives WEEKLY price action and that in turn results in the MONTHLY price action being formed. So my entire outlook and focus is based on the DAILY followed by the WEEKLY price charts I do NOT religiously stick to my thinking - If PRICE action rubbishes my outlook then I adapt to price action and form a new opinion based on the facts of price action - PRICE is right and rules, my outlook is highly accurate but not 100%, there will be times when I am simply wrong! I do this for the FTSE250, NASDAQ100 and Forex markets - Trading decisions are made based on the Individual charts (WEEKLY & DAILY) that form those indexes As you can see this weeks price action conformed nicely to the expectations mentioned on the charts FTSE250 WEEKLY CHART: Analysis for W/C 27th April 2020 FTSE250 DAILY CHART: Analysis for W/C 27th April 2020 Stay Safe THT