THT

I was going to offer some advice - anyway, if it were me the initial stop would have been somewhere on that green entry bar and then it would have been trailed upwards to preserve a % of open profits so that a profitable trade did not turn into a b/e trade or loss

Stop placement is probably the hardest thing to do with a profitable trade - only thing i can suggest is that you should know exactly where your stop and trailing stop are going before you get into a trade Swing lows are obvious but as you've seen a nice wash and rinse can happen at that point Can you repost the original chart and show where you're initial stop was placed?

Think this has happened to us all at some point - I know exactly what you mean, the move can defy logic and reasoning, skirts 0.1pt/pip past your stop and then completely 180* u turn and moves as you intended

I remember walking into a seminar in the 2000's at Norwich city FC when i was an financial adviser - to hear from Andy - Walked in and he was being bellowed at down the phone by Mike Ashley (sports direct) questioning why their share price had dipped I was also in the company of that fund management group on d-day Oct 2008 and they didn't have a clue To be fair on Andy, he's probably one of the better fund managers out there, although he'll live and die by his funds performance

A few weeks back I wrote about WD Ganns 4th Time Lucky trading method, with examples The eagle eyed of you would have noticed the set up on a DAILY chart of GOLD (although no-one highlighted it!), as it's been building for a while It took 2 attempts to get in (stop 12 pts) but with a target of 95 points = 7.92R which again is a half decent R value

It's officially LIVE 1st trade is off and running Rules in post 1 above - target levels and stop shown on chart Remember this is to SHOW you over the course of 12 trades and 1 year by ENTERING in a fixed direction, dictated by the NEW MOON, we will see how a virtually random method compares - to be honest the main aim is to show you how by skewing risk/reward and money management into your favour you can win or prevent massive losses For the doubters out there - Yes I have in the past traded this method using ETF's of the FTSE250 Index (MIDD) in the 2000's inside my SIPP and ISA As I'm doing this for fun, the chart will be updated once it's stopped out or target hit Next Trade is in August and we'll be going LONG at the open on the 19th (PS - The MOON has absolutely NOTHING to do with this trade - I just thought it fun to use the moon in the method to prove how you can actually make money trading the markets with a stupid example of a method, but with excellent risk/reward and excellent money management - we could have just gone long on the 1st or last trading day of the month) If you do not see the money management importance of this - then you will be doomed to failure as a trader and there is nothing anyone but you can do about that I'm afraid TABLE: DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 3224.29 3189.29 35 pts 175 pts 3399.29 Aug 19th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Sept 17th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Oct 16th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Nov 15th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses. THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk

I've not looked at those methods for years, but funnily enough I have for years employed a sort of Darvas box to my weekly charts but my box is very very simply the monthly range movement drawn onto a weekly chart (see chart) but all i will say is if they worked once, then they will definitely work again during the same market conditions - markets aren't doing what most people think they are doing, markets are dynamic, in my How to Win thread I mention you have to view the markets in a differing perspective to that forced onto a 2 dimensional chart - the reasoning for that is the reason why the dynamics of the markets change and alter and for methods that once worked seem to have stopped working I tell people to imagine a square box on a stick - the box is right in front of your vision so you can only see one side in your view, for years you see only one side of the box then suddenly it's rotated overnight and you get another side, only this time the market doesn't conform to the previous sides rhythms, cycles or methods If this happens in the markets then that could be the explanation as to why once good methods worked and then suddenly stopped [I spent 2010-12 exploring that question]

I have Miners software which includes his DTosc Indicator - yep they all show the rate of change but with slightly differing maths - to be fair, his DTosc is probably better than most indicators out there, however the best by far is the good old RSI (wilders) Miner used his in conjunction with EW, which when EW works did time the turns pretty well - I don't trade EW's, although a couple of patterns i use can be classed as EW's I published a weekly analysis showing multiple indicates - i think people thought i traded them all - the veiled message which no one picked up on was to show the Indicators and how they were similar, as well as how they moved when set correctly with price moves/cycles of the market Saying that they can be used very well in certain ways - especially in identifying small cycles in the market, crucial turning points and divergences Should clarify that I do/have traded with Indicators, purely because I like to win often and have one over the market, I also use pure price action and it's this that produces me the greatest % returns year on year. William Garrett published in the early 70's a book on Investing with Torque - this included volume into the equation, which is a good read, anyone reading it will come away from the book thinking about his cycle analysis and work - if its still in print My bookshelf use to be packed with books - hundreds - now there's just a handful of the ones that work - I used to pick up a trading book and wonder if it was going to be full of fluff or actually worth something, most books could be condensed into 10-20 straight to the point pages Keep saying price action is doing exactly the same as it did 150 years ago, all that has changed is the growth aspect of the market

I remember testing Elders Impulse system back in 2010 ish, never used it - good post

lol - There's one trader whose most likely just realised their ultra smart trading method is massively beaten and outsmarted by a simple stupid trading strategy dumedin - post your trading strategy in advance of the trade and let's see how you compare - against it - we need to know rules in advance of time so that you can't doctor the results Are you man enough to take on a stupid system?

Yep it rarely fails to make a profit or at worst just to break even in the time I've known about it I'm not advocating trading it as there's far better methods out there, I'm just showing you how to shove the odds of success by controlling money management and R values into your favour and not the houses with a set entry direction on a known date in the future

Yeah - That's one of the reasons I prefer to trade daily charts and the fact that I'm exceptionally lazy and can't stand being tied to a screen all day Slippage and gaps are a cost that need to be factored in

On the face of it this might seem totally CRAZY but, wait.......... What happens if it works? I've spoken at length about money management and risk in previous posts - this method will show you how important it is. Trades with charts will be produced monthly for verification and the table below updated - PLEASE NOTE, I WILL ONLY BE PAPER TRADING THIS METHOD in this thread - the process is to show you how guessing works out and I'll be updating the charts and table when time permits me to do so - I don't have the time to do this real-time THT New Moon Strategy AIM: To show you the effects of a stupidly simple trading method/strategy where we exploit the R value in our favour and employ strict money management / risk methods, by knowing well in advance the trade direction we'll be taking as well as the risk and target levels We only have to be right twice to break-even and once will result in a loss of only 6R If 6R = 60% of your account then you could be in trouble for the next year - for the purposes of this exercise we'll assume 1R = 2% of your account So we KNOW right from the off, that the most we can loose is 12R or 24% of our account in a trading year if we get every single trade wrong - this then allows you to trade the following year with 76% of our original trading capital (live another day!) Wins are obviously a bonus Trade direction is LONG only (The stock markets have a long directional bias) - I could have spiced this up a bit and used a toss of a coin 5 mins before market open but its another level of faff that I can't be bothered with documenting We'll use the SP500 Index for the exercise - DAILY Chart Time-Frame (charts will be updated) - this will be the one from my charting software not IG's - so there will be a slight variance in price if comparing with IG's charts To break even we just have to be right TWICE out of every 12 attempts - which is handy as there are 12 months in the year We know in advance trade direction we're taking, the £ risk, £ profit target and the exact day we'll be trading - the only thing we do not know is if the market is going in out expected direction too! 1R below could be x% of your account Let's trade this for 1 year and see where we end up.................. RULES: 1. Entry is LONG @ the OPEN the day of the New Moon (If this date is a weekend or Bank holiday then we'll open the trade when the market next re-opens) 2. Stop 35 points (this might have to be revised slightly during high/low volatility periods) = 1R 3. Target is 5 times risk = 175 points = 5R 4. Once the position is UP 2 x risk or 70 points - stop gets moved to break even 5. Once the position is UP 3 x risk or 105 points - the stop is moved to protect 40% of any open profits until stopped out or target hit 6. Every trade will be taken regardless of whether others are still open DATE TRADE DIRECTION ENTRY STOP RISK TARGET OUTCOME **** R value July 20th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Aug 19th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Sept 17th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Oct 16th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Nov 15th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Dec 14th 2020 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Jan 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Feb 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Mar 13th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts Apr 12th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts May 11th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts June 10th 2021 LONG 35 pts 175 pts DISCLAIMER: As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire which burns and hurts one - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money or trade it - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses of some degree - this thread and post is for Illustrative purposes only THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk and unless you fully understand the method and risks I would advise against committing money to it

Everyone who takes the markets seriously tries to find the times that turns happen I would absolutely recommend studying Time Cycles - you can't do monthly turns but March 2020 was known about for years in-advance - for me anyway TC's help me to understand the appearance of irrationality into rational reasoning

The spread is crucial - I won't trade some markets because of the spread - it doesn't suit my business model Trader psychology is also crucial - you have to place trades you're comfortable losing money on

Yep I have positions open overnight - I trade from daily charts though so just use the futures contracts not the DFB - worst i've been caught by is about 2R

This is why I say manually back test your method over 100 trades - that way you will know a) if the method works b) the win rate and c) the average pts/% move of the method Then you can set your money management appropriately The method you are trading will determine the possible R profit value - As Nit2wynit says above if you're looking for a 20% move and the market only offers 5% then you've got to alter things to take the 5% I'm thinking of publishing a totally random trading method for 12 months to show how just guessing can make money - I need to decide whether it's worth the hassle and time factor doing it though Anyway - All my methods I use have the following money management rules without fail and i know these rules are going to apply before i even place the trade: Once up XR stop gets moved to break-even Protect 50% of open profits at all times until either stopped out or target hit Then when within XR of profit target, trailing stop gets tightened to a trailing 1-2 bar H/L (depends on price action) If you start taking multiple profit targets you'll dilute the overall R profit value and on a system/method that works 50+% of the time that's likely to be 1-3R It would most likely be better if you traded 2-3 units rather than just 1 - if you're taking profit targets along the way - so if you normally risk 1% of account risk 3% and have 3 target levels etc - it will all depend on the maths and average % move you're method actually works to That's why I published my How to Win thread - it covers everything you've mentioned in this thread and how to deal with it - that was the purpose of the thread, how to deal with what trading throws at you.

Opportunity is all around us - the aim of trading is simply to win Once again our good old friend from 100 years ago Mr WD Gann comes into play - The reason I'm showing you Gann is Three-fold: These methods actually WORK and You need to realise that methods from 100+ years ago are still smashing them out of the park to this day - there's a valid reason for this, as stock markets are auctions, then price will do similar things in the future as it has done in the past, the only difference to the party is different traders are buying and selling Most people would be petrified of buying after a recent plunge in price In this post all I'm showing you are WEEKLY S&P500 charts - This is for Investors as you can use DB/Triple bottoms to go long and just hold using appropriate trade management to protect profits and let the position move - for the ease of simplicity I've shown a target level - as you can see from the charts, price moved much more - I'll leave it up to you how you manage that one I've also shown you the worst case R profit value return possible on these trades by trading the shortest leg of the swings and by having a stop of 25 points - you could have trimmed the stop - again that's up to you to work out/sort If risking 2% of your account then 5R = 10% return - 2 -3 of these a year and you'll be massively outperform 99% of funds and fund managers out there, trade 5 different markets...... By tweaking the trade it is easily possible to make much more than 5R If its worked in the past, then it will show up and work again in the future, you just have to be prepared

Good luck on your trading journey, yeah there's a huge amount of **** out there to sift through and I've certainly made virtually every mistake in the book over the past 10 years or so You can massively outperform the market and win by only having 2-3 winners out of 10 if you get the risk/money management right - accuracy is not req'd to win in the markets 20% a year is definitely doable - the old saying of think outside the box is relevant here

Welcome - All the best for your trading journey

Depends on your big picture outlook - there's no denying the fundamentals are shot to bits - whether the market factors that in or not we will see. For what its worth - my expectation has been that following the rally from March 2020 we'd top out and head sideways to downwards for 12-18 mths ish - see (not to scale) chart below created on 13th March 2020 - someone asked me my outlook, I showed them my expectation once the fall had finished its decent and started to rally (SP500 Index the chart is of) Obviously the market does not have to conform to that outlook and I won't be waiting for it to happen, if it happens, it happens if it doesn't it doesn't

Best thing to do is read what people post - you soon work out those that haven't got a clue - I "ignored" him weeks ago, so I don't see anything he writes - just ignore him, don't bite He'll fail to see that the reason people charge for information is because of the likes of him and his attitude, its definitely a reason I've not got involved with the public during the past 11 years, the world is full of people just like him I would not loose any brain power on him or replying to him

Thanks, much appreciated - Glad you enjoy the read. Trading is a journey, find your style, test, test and test (manually not via a backtest on a comp) tweak and then exploit One of the points of the post is that although we live and trade in the 2020's - the underlying principles of money management were written about over 100 years ago and they will always be applicable now and in the future. I refer to Gann quite a lot - Gann wrote a number of courses and not all of his methods actually work - but some do and of those that do some have very very healthy positive expectancy returns His 4th Time Lucky method shown in the post above on a weekly chart had a double figure R potential - at its basic expectation Here's one from the SAME time period and market as the chart above but this is the DAILY FTSE100 Index chart So although I was aware of and seeing if the weekly 4th time lucky trade happened, I also took this one in the opposite direction in the build up to the weekly one Info on the chart - apologies for any typo's I got disturbed 3 times putting it together (The family know not to disturb me when i'm at my screen, but delivery drivers and the post man don't!) *for reference in the chart - its a imperfect Triple TOP which leads to a 4th Time Lucky trade - AB&C are NOT a Triple bottom in my eyes - price needs to be more aligned and if the next swing had taken out #C I would NOT have classed this as a 4th Time Lucky trade as #C low was too far below #A&B for my preference I posted in a prev post about triangles and pin bars - in the chart above the Pin bar was a sign that price was going higher from #C low Wishing you success on your trading journey THT

Back to our dear old friend Mr WD Gann - the trade below he documented in his trading courses 100 years ago and they still work miles better than most other methods out there to this day! Refresher - WD Gann said "BUY Double and Triple Bottoms - BUT the 4th time price reaches the same level it nearly always goes through" ( which means short the 4th time @ a price level ) Sticking with the old guard, a friend who knew of the impending plunge (Yes it is possible to forecast those big turns) asked me how to trade it, I showed him the following chart - at the time the plunge had yet to happen - but the triple bottom had formed - The chart is the WEEKLY FTSE100 Index chart - Triple bottom #3 formed week of 4th Oct 2019, it finally caved in 4 months later! (patience is a key to success as outlined in prev posts) The FTSE100 Index chart below worked nearly perfectly, the USA markets did not form this formation - for perfection you want confirmed swings as per the swing lines on the chart - notice #3 bottom did not produce a swing bottom as per #1 & 2 - the thing sealed #3 was price trading and closing above its [#3] swing high and then it simply glided into the new year and the time cycle zone Now these 4th Time Lucky trades are rare - which is why I'm showing it to you! They don't always work as with everything in trading! Gold WEEKLY chart below - trade from 2011 - This 4th Time lucky trade was PERFECT - for visual purposes of the perfect set-up Remember all the hype around how wonderful Gold was back in 2010/11 - some of us were sat there watching as that WEEKLY Triple top formed and shorted that down to the 4th Time Lucky level - Remember Gann said "Short Double & Triple Tops" - This really was a beautiful and perfect triple top/bottom trading range Now EVERY single market and time frame that is liquid will FORM this 4th Time Lucky set-up at some point - adding swings to your charts shows you different perspectives of the market - this is why I mentioned them in a previous post DISCLAIMER: The Industry stats say 85% of traders who try to trade lose their shirts - I reckon its probably 95% in reality, that means 95% of people trying to trade end up losing their stake money or at best going round in a circle I've got nothing to sell you, I don't impart my full knowledge in a public forum, because frankly I don't get anything back from doing so, so you can't expect me to reveal all the methods that I use to trade. Not trading advice, no liability can be attributed to any failed trades you place of your own accord, trying to follow any methods shown or mentioned- you're responsible for placing your own trades and bets - all i'm showing you are proven methods that when used with the keys to success enhance your chance of survival in this game - Trading is a game of probabilities, managing losses and maximising winners is the key of which no one else but YOU are 100% responsible for THT

Trading is your responsibility - Here's a couple of methods that work and are half decent R values - but only if you use them correctly - in the wrong hands, people will **** it right up - Don't be THAT person. The vast majority of people don't understand what is going on in the markets - that's evident when you read some of the posts on this site! Markets can only do 1 of 3 things on any given day. They can move higher, move lower or remain unchanged. This simple observation can be represented by a "normal distribution curve" in statistical mathematics. The normal distribution curve is a theoretical frequency that is sometimes approximated by data that is collected experimentally. This distribution is also sometimes called a Gaussian distribution in honour of Carl F Gauss. To introduce you to the normal distribution curve, we may consider a simple experiment in which we place 10 coins into a box, shake them up and toss them into the air. We then count how many coins land with heads facing up. We then collect all the coins, put them back in the box, shake it up and repeat this process over and over until we have done it 1000 times. We will find out that in general we get 5 coins with heads up about 250 times, or 25% of the time. We will get 4 coins heads up about 210 times or 21% and 6 heads also about 210 times or 21%. We will find that we get 7 coins with heads facing up or 3 coins heads up either about 120 times each or 12% of the times. We will find that 8 coins heads up or 2 coins heads up occurs approximately 40 times or 4% of the time each. Getting 9 coins heads up or only 1 coin heads up will only happen about 1 time each or (0.1%). Getting all heads or all tails is almost a 0% probability. Since getting heads or tails is a 50:50 chance, we see that getting a 50:50 split occurs with the greatest frequency as would make sense. We can apply similar ideas to getting an up close or a down close in the markets. If we increase the total number of coins in our box to a larger number like 1000-coins, a graph will approximate a bell shaped curve. Since heads and tails are evenly distributed the mean or average occurrence is awarded. As we deviate to either side (by 1 standard deviation) the frequency of coins with heads landing up decreases proportionately. Many distribution graphs look like normal distribution curves, but are skewed to the left side or the right side. This reflects an unequal frequency of occurrence as you deviate from the mean. For example, the stock market historically has a positive skew towards up closes. It closes positive 3 times as frequently as it closes down. You could use this very simple idea to exploit short-term trades against the trend or even enter longer-term trades with the trend after a reaction. The "advantage" is simple math probabilities based on the concept of a normal distribution curve (Its also why buying and holding works over the long term) The idea is simple probability: There's always 50% chance the next bar's close is higher than current bar's close and 50% chance that it is lower. This is valid at any point in time. Thus the probability that two consecutive closes are lower/higher is 25% and the probability of three consecutive closes in the same direction is 12.5% etc. At that point, discounting any trending influences, there's 6.25% probability that the system is wrong and 93.75% probability that it is correct. This simple trading system illustrates how basic an approach can be to exploit advantages in the markets. This same concept can be used for predicting the winner in a sporting event, "Red or Black" in roulette, bets with or against the house or the roller in craps, etc. As long as you follow the previously mentioned Success Keys, you should make money. The graphs of some distributions have more than a single hump. In a typical distribution, the mean and the mode are equal to one another because the mode measures the event that occurred the most frequently. Measurements that tend to group in two areas are called bimodal because there are two distinct ranges of measurements that are the most popular or the most frequent. A common example would be student's report card grades. There are some students that simply refuse to complete their homework or study, but many other students who will complete their homework and score well on their tests. The grades will be bimodal because one group of students will get D's, another group will get A's and B's, and a few will get C's. The markets are also bimodal because at any given point in time, you have a group of traders that are expecting higher prices, a group that is expecting lower prices, and a group that is undecided or neutral. The skew of this ever-changing bimodal distribution represents the overall opinion or sentiment of the traders participating in the market. Contrarian philosophy is based on the idea that the overall opinion or sentiment of the trading majority is wrong at the opportune time. In other words, trend changes tend to occur in opposing directions when the market sentiment reaches an extreme. If the majority is optimistic and bullish then a top is near, if the majority is bearish and pessimistic then a bottom is near. If everyone wants to buy, then whom are they going to buy from? If everyone wants to sell, then whom are they going to sell to? Markets move limit up or down, or make price gaps on zero volume simply because there was nobody to buy from in an up move or nobody to sell to in a down move. The markets are simply skipping price levels to find an agreeable price where someone will be willing to sell or buy. This particular information will not necessarily make you a better trader, but it is intended to give you another perspective. It is important to understand that the price action of markets "reflect" the "feelings", "attitudes" and emotional energy of the various groups of traders participating in the market. You must learn to keep your emotions out of your trading decisions at all times. It is very easy to miss a good trade because you had a few losses. It is also very easy to take an unnecessary risk after a few winners! I'm not prepared to to show examples of this, but there are times when the markets move into a form/type that is massively in the probability of the trader and not the house Looking at profitable trading methods: Triangles can be very profitable, so can Pin/Hammer bars - Trade them in the right environment and they will work, trade them in the wrong "type" of market form and they won't do to well Right that concludes this post - I wish 99% of you all the best and profitable trading If you cannot make money from the techniques and rules I've given, I would re-read and if still no luck, give up - as I said you don;t want to be that trader, trying for years over and over to consistently fail - someone famous once said "Repeating the same mistakes over and over expecting different results is insanity" I'm off on my summer break - this year at home - will resume full-time trading in September Stay Safe THT