Rintel

Welcome Back Bumpkins That’s Q1 done! It wasn’t the sexiest for equities, but, for the most part, the first 3 months are done. Yields have had their best quarter in what feels like forever, and that has buoyed the dollar – The consensus ‘short dollar in 2021’ trade is steam rolling a lot of funds. The USA wants to do infrastructure + OPEC came up with no recommendation for ministers (who sit down today), this should come as no surprise given that they’ve failed to agree on a recommendation on the last 4 meetings. These are political decisions as much as anything else, and that is where the ministerial brinkmanship comes in. Lastly, France is on Lockdown (AGAIN)! As we have seen before, in the world of Covid containment, action begets action, and we now look for other EU members to follow France’s renewed stricter stance. Germany is a prime candidate. Here are custom trading ranges for today ( I tend to buy at the towards the lower range and sell towards the higher range) ^VXN (Bearish) 22.633 - 27.42 prev. close: 24.89AAP (Bullish) 177.617 - 191.911 prev. close: 183.49AAPL (Bearish) 117.518 - 127.129 prev. close: 122.15ABNB (Bullish) 168.675 - 212.147 prev. close: 187.94ACM (Bullish) 60.829 - 66.408 prev. close: 64.11ADBE (Bullish) 453.77 - 487.746 prev. close: 475.37ALB (Bearish) 140.288 - 155.205 prev. close: 146.11AMLP (Bullish) 28.44 - 31.379 prev. close: 30.5AMZN (Bearish) 2990.039 - 3181.736 prev. close: 3094.08ARKG (Bearish) 81.701 - 94.102 prev. close: 88.73ARKK (Bearish) 109.375 - 127.576 prev. close: 119.95ASBFY (Bullish) 31.132 - 34.651 prev. close: 33.28AU (Bearish) 19.445 - 23.056 prev. close: 21.97AUDJPY (Bullish) 82.08 - 85.057 prev. close: 84.13BA (Bullish) 233.337 - 277.077 prev. close: 254.72BABA (Bearish) 215.561 - 239.282 prev. close: 226.73BAL (Bearish) 43.046 - 47.683 prev. close: 45.77BFI (Bullish) 14.963 - 16.641 prev. close: 15.41BFT (Bearish) 14.049 - 16.779 prev. close: 15.1BIGC (Bearish) 52.087 - 60.473 prev. close: 57.8BIZD (Bullish) 15.743 - 16.659 prev. close: 16.2BKNG (Bullish) 2134.961 - 2435.323 prev. close: 2329.84BLNK (Bearish) 34.395 - 47.18 prev. close: 41.1BLOK (Bullish) 48.829 - 60.67 prev. close: 55.84BSPE (Bearish) 9.818 - 10.288 prev. close: 9.96BUD (Bearish) 61.145 - 65.007 prev. close: 62.85BYD (Bullish) 54.308 - 63.489 prev. close: 58.96C (Bullish) 69.11 - 74.652 prev. close: 72.75CBOE (Bullish) 95.15 - 101.576 prev. close: 98.69CCJ (Bullish) 15.284 - 19.431 prev. close: 16.61CCL (Bullish) 23.346 - 29.478 prev. close: 26.54CDEV (Bullish) 3.018 - 4.941 prev. close: 4.2CENX (Bullish) 14.542 - 19.782 prev. close: 17.66CEW (Bearish) 17.659 - 18.127 prev. close: 17.89CFG (Bullish) 41.42 - 46.173 prev. close: 44.15CFRUY (Bullish) 9.412 - 10.122 prev. close: 9.77CHWY (Bearish) 73.134 - 87.892 prev. close: 80.38CL (Bearish) 76.531 - 80.88 prev. close: 78.83CL=F (Bullish) 54.793 - 62.619 prev. close: 59.49CLF (Bullish) 14.742 - 21.378 prev. close: 20.11CLSK (Bearish) 16.73 - 27.455 prev. close: 23.82CLVR (Bearish) 9.838 - 12.482 prev. close: 10.29CNQ (Bullish) 28.279 - 32.037 prev. close: 30.87COF (Bullish) 119.686 - 132.025 prev. close: 127.23CORN (Bullish) 16.367 - 17.649 prev. close: 17.53COST (Bullish) 336.912 - 362.977 prev. close: 352.48CPER (Bullish) 24.068 - 25.406 prev. close: 24.62CPPMF (Bullish) 2.194 - 2.753 prev. close: 2.48CPRI (Bullish) 45.528 - 54.223 prev. close: 51.0CRBP (Bearish) 1.695 - 2.246 prev. close: 1.97CRWD (Bearish) 168.554 - 198.43 prev. close: 182.51CTVA (Bullish) 45.265 - 48.281 prev. close: 46.62CUT (Bullish) 35.002 - 36.805 prev. close: 35.915CVX (Bullish) 98.904 - 108.875 prev. close: 104.79CWB (Bearish) 79.994 - 86.244 prev. close: 83.35D (Bullish) 74.26 - 77.625 prev. close: 75.96DAO (Bearish) 20.982 - 29.842 prev. close: 23.82DASH (Bearish) 120.708 - 140.031 prev. close: 131.13DB (Bullish) 11.683 - 12.599 prev. close: 12.0DBI (Bullish) 14.442 - 18.735 prev. close: 17.4DD (Neutral) 74.573 - 79.454 prev. close: 77.28DDOG (Bearish) 76.095 - 89.65 prev. close: 83.34DDS (Bullish) 84.916 - 104.067 prev. close: 96.57DE (Bullish) 352.663 - 387.887 prev. close: 374.14DHI (Bullish) 84.376 - 93.776 prev. close: 89.12DIS (Bullish) 178.893 - 188.171 prev. close: 184.52DKNG (Bullish) 55.375 - 67.436 prev. close: 61.33DLTR (Bullish) 108.746 - 117.876 prev. close: 114.46DNN (Bearish) 0.938 - 1.37 prev. close: 1.09DPST (Bullish) 190.842 - 256.648 prev. close: 231.67DPZ (Bullish) 360.741 - 378.86 prev. close: 367.79DRIO (Bearish) 16.63 - 23.985 prev. close: 19.26DUFRY (Bullish) 5.933 - 7.424 prev. close: 6.805DUK (Bullish) 94.983 - 98.566 prev. close: 96.53DUSL (Bullish) 34.93 - 41.381 prev. close: 39.12DUST (Bullish) 19.997 - 23.735 prev. close: 22.33EMR (Bullish) 86.265 - 93.086 prev. close: 90.22EOSE (Bearish) 16.281 - 23.149 prev. close: 19.72ETHUSD (Bullish) 1616 - 2010 prev. close: 1937EURUSD (Bearish) 1.165 - 1.184 prev. close: 1.172EWA (Neutral) 24.287 - 25.199 prev. close: 24.79EWG (Bullish) 32.678 - 33.905 prev. close: 33.44EWI (Bullish) 30.823 - 31.854 prev. close: 31.51EWJ (Bearish) 67.075 - 70.932 prev. close: 68.52EWN (Bullish) 44.978 - 47.125 prev. close: 46.15EWP (Neutral) 26.748 - 27.902 prev. close: 27.39EWS (Bullish) 22.976 - 23.779 prev. close: 23.42EWT (Bullish) 57.855 - 61.573 prev. close: 59.96EWU (Bullish) 30.54 - 31.843 prev. close: 31.31EWW (Bullish) 42.202 - 44.974 prev. close: 43.83EWY (Bearish) 85.962 - 92.16 prev. close: 89.7EXPC (Bearish) 9.736 - 12.066 prev. close: 10.29EXPE (Bullish) 159.698 - 187.859 prev. close: 172.12EYE (Bearish) 39.939 - 46.135 prev. close: 43.83FANG (Bullish) 67.079 - 77.89 prev. close: 73.49FAS (Bullish) 81.651 - 96.943 prev. close: 90.87FCX (Bullish) 29.763 - 35.843 prev. close: 32.93FISV (Bullish) 118.219 - 122.579 prev. close: 119.04FLR (Bullish) 19.277 - 26.165 prev. close: 23.09FNV (Bullish) 121.897 - 132.945 prev. close: 125.29FXB (Neutral) 131.247 - 133.88 prev. close: 133.04FXC (Neutral) 77.452 - 79.341 prev. close: 78.16FXE (Bearish) 109.142 - 110.975 prev. close: 109.87FXF (Bearish) 95.35 - 97.572 prev. close: 96.12GDRX (Bearish) 33.268 - 41.878 prev. close: 39.02GDX (Bearish) 31.449 - 34.213 prev. close: 32.5GH (Neutral) 135.514 - 160.462 prev. close: 152.65GM (Bullish) 54.34 - 60.809 prev. close: 57.46GME (Bearish) 79.087 - 252.86 prev. close: 189.82GOLD (Bearish) 19.166 - 20.876 prev. close: 19.8GRWG (Bearish) 39.429 - 56.99 prev. close: 49.69GS (Bullish) 317.338 - 338.542 prev. close: 327.0GUSH (Bullish) 58.033 - 76.769 prev. close: 70.47HIBL (Bearish) 46.092 - 61.63 prev. close: 56.4HMMJ.TRT (Bearish) 11.282 - 13.826 prev. close: 12.23HON (Bullish) 208.856 - 222.85 prev. close: 217.07HZNP (Bullish) 79.268 - 94.764 prev. close: 92.04IHRT (Bullish) 15.517 - 20.595 prev. close: 18.15IIPR (Bearish) 163.479 - 200.289 prev. close: 180.16INDA (Bullish) 40.346 - 43.186 prev. close: 42.18INDL (Bullish) 43.16 - 49.204 prev. close: 47.08IP (Bullish) 51.26 - 56.396 prev. close: 54.07IPI (Bullish) 27.659 - 36.567 prev. close: 32.56IRDM (Bearish) 36.185 - 42.406 prev. close: 41.25IVOL (Neutral) 28.487 - 28.871 prev. close: 28.58IWF (Neutral) 236.868 - 248.082 prev. close: 243.04IWO (Bearish) 281.059 - 313.553 prev. close: 300.74JD (Bearish) 76.936 - 86.011 prev. close: 84.33JDST (Bullish) 10.814 - 13.386 prev. close: 12.29JO (Bearish) 34.6 - 37.311 prev. close: 35.82JPM (Bullish) 145.884 - 156.513 prev. close: 152.23KBA (Bearish) 42.587 - 45.769 prev. close: 44.24KMI (Bullish) 15.79 - 17.299 prev. close: 16.65KRE (Bullish) 62.489 - 68.723 prev. close: 66.34LABU (Bearish) 56.841 - 94.036 prev. close: 78.92LB (Bullish) 57.485 - 67.347 prev. close: 61.86LEN (Bullish) 94.567 - 113.099 prev. close: 101.23LIN (Bullish) 272.791 - 287.737 prev. close: 280.14LIND (Bullish) 16.315 - 19.805 prev. close: 18.9LMNR (Bullish) 15.437 - 18.195 prev. close: 17.5LOTZ (Bearish) 6.411 - 8.202 prev. close: 7.13LQD (Bearish) 128.327 - 130.76 prev. close: 130.05MA (Bullish) 338.036 - 366.39 prev. close: 356.05MAIFF (Bullish) 0.441 - 0.559 prev. close: 0.508MARA (Bullish) 33.453 - 52.723 prev. close: 48.02MAXR (Bearish) 29.687 - 41.604 prev. close: 37.82MDC (Bullish) 54.106 - 61.696 prev. close: 59.4MLLCF (Bearish) 23.103 - 27.486 prev. close: 24.01MO (Bullish) 49.771 - 53.489 prev. close: 51.16MOS (Bullish) 29.082 - 33.002 prev. close: 31.61MP (Bearish) 27.497 - 43.096 prev. close: 35.95MRO (Bullish) 9.434 - 11.344 prev. close: 10.68MS (Bullish) 75.08 - 80.55 prev. close: 77.66MSFT (Bullish) 228.882 - 241.686 prev. close: 235.77MSOS (Bearish) 38.672 - 46.443 prev. close: 42.4MSTR (Bearish) 561.669 - 738.528 prev. close: 678.8MTDR (Bullish) 20.611 - 25.183 prev. close: 23.45MTUM (Bearish) 154.899 - 165.9 prev. close: 160.86NCMI (Bullish) 3.849 - 5.325 prev. close: 4.62NEE (Bearish) 70.646 - 77.698 prev. close: 75.61NEM (Neutral) 58.535 - 64.329 prev. close: 60.27NIB (Bearish) 28.573 - 30.199 prev. close: 29.31NIO (Bearish) 34.211 - 43.339 prev. close: 38.98NLY (Neutral) 8.453 - 8.807 prev. close: 8.6NORW (Bullish) 13.313 - 14.0 prev. close: 13.85NVDA (Neutral) 500.49 - 558.349 prev. close: 533.93NVR (Bullish) 4373.583 - 4850.019 prev. close: 4710.93ONEM (Bearish) 35.462 - 42.533 prev. close: 39.08ORLY (Bullish) 496.444 - 517.979 prev. close: 507.25OSTK (Bearish) 55.481 - 75.775 prev. close: 66.26OUST (Bearish) 7.096 - 9.869 prev. close: 8.5OXY (Bullish) 24.024 - 28.224 prev. close: 26.62PCT (Bullish) 22.378 - 32.553 prev. close: 25.5PDD (Bearish) 112.627 - 148.547 prev. close: 133.88PENN (Bearish) 90.973 - 118.853 prev. close: 104.84PEP (Bullish) 137.095 - 146.818 prev. close: 141.45PG (Bullish) 132.248 - 139.461 prev. close: 135.43PHM (Bullish) 48.765 - 55.266 prev. close: 52.44PINS (Bearish) 67.603 - 78.438 prev. close: 74.03PLCE (Bullish) 64.48 - 75.463 prev. close: 69.7PLTR (Bearish) 20.477 - 25.436 prev. close: 23.29PLUG (Bearish) 28.835 - 40.469 prev. close: 35.84POAHY (Bullish) 9.608 - 12.014 prev. close: 10.63PSCE (Bullish) 5.579 - 6.606 prev. close: 6.31PTON (Bearish) 99.022 - 120.109 prev. close: 112.44PXD (Bullish) 151.04 - 168.97 prev. close: 158.82PYPL (Bearish) 229.875 - 254.308 prev. close: 242.84QCOM (Bearish) 126.001 - 137.17 prev. close: 132.59RAIL (Bullish) 3.78 - 7.729 prev. close: 6.595REKR (Bullish) 16.461 - 24.07 prev. close: 19.99REMX (Bearish) 65.589 - 80.762 prev. close: 74.99RH (Bullish) 522.052 - 651.941 prev. close: 596.6RIG (Bullish) 2.848 - 3.691 prev. close: 3.55RIOT (Bullish) 39.923 - 61.567 prev. close: 53.27ROAD (Bearish) 25.074 - 32.286 prev. close: 29.88ROKU (Bearish) 291.437 - 346.505 prev. close: 325.77RRR (Bullish) 31.464 - 35.325 prev. close: 32.59RSX (Bullish) 24.171 - 27.016 prev. close: 25.81RYTM (Bearish) 19.026 - 23.291 prev. close: 21.27SAVE (Bullish) 32.959 - 39.938 prev. close: 36.9SE (Bearish) 191.191 - 242.09 prev. close: 223.23SFIX (Bearish) 42.52 - 59.672 prev. close: 49.54SGRY (Bullish) 40.192 - 46.711 prev. close: 44.26SLB (Bullish) 25.613 - 28.55 prev. close: 27.19SLCA (Bullish) 10.354 - 12.925 prev. close: 12.29SM (Bullish) 13.874 - 18.693 prev. close: 16.37SNOW (Bearish) 203.737 - 247.933 prev. close: 229.28SOYB (Bullish) 20.45 - 21.742 prev. close: 21.62SPHB (Bullish) 65.347 - 71.64 prev. close: 69.53SQ (Bearish) 200.007 - 250.283 prev. close: 227.05STKL (Bullish) 13.265 - 16.552 prev. close: 14.77STM (Neutral) 36.725 - 40.44 prev. close: 38.33SU (Bullish) 19.016 - 22.111 prev. close: 20.9SUM (Bullish) 25.041 - 29.97 prev. close: 28.02TBT (Bullish) 20.617 - 23.06 prev. close: 21.74TCS (Bullish) 14.524 - 19.255 prev. close: 16.64TMHC (Bullish) 28.599 - 32.606 prev. close: 30.81TMUS (Neutral) 121.204 - 127.444 prev. close: 125.29TNA (Bullish) 71.485 - 99.543 prev. close: 89.51TOL (Bullish) 52.265 - 60.292 prev. close: 56.73TPR (Bullish) 38.439 - 44.657 prev. close: 41.21TQQQ (Bearish) 82.746 - 98.381 prev. close: 91.26TSLA (Bearish) 602.134 - 706.683 prev. close: 667.93TSM (Bearish) 107.918 - 124.762 prev. close: 118.28TUR (Bearish) 18.78 - 25.556 prev. close: 22.99TWLO (Bearish) 304.835 - 375.608 prev. close: 340.76TWTR (Bullish) 58.651 - 69.09 prev. close: 63.63UBOT (Bearish) 36.138 - 42.003 prev. close: 39.79UGA (Bullish) 28.791 - 32.898 prev. close: 31.51UPRO (Bullish) 84.376 - 94.014 prev. close: 90.34UPS (Bullish) 160.363 - 174.203 prev. close: 169.99UPST (Bullish) 88.43 - 228.384 prev. close: 128.86URA (Bullish) 17.743 - 21.015 prev. close: 18.83URTY (Bullish) 84.986 - 118.459 prev. close: 106.57USDCAD (Neutral) 1.236 - 1.267 prev. close: 1.256USDJPY (Bullish) 109.397 - 111.097 prev. close: 110.761USDRUB (Bullish) 74.18 - 77.924 prev. close: 75.558UUUU (Neutral) 5.06 - 7.377 prev. close: 5.68UYM (Bullish) 80.968 - 93.832 prev. close: 88.41V (Neutral) 197.689 - 216.148 prev. close: 211.73VEDL (Bullish) 11.781 - 12.975 prev. close: 12.57VMC (Bullish) 156.23 - 175.668 prev. close: 168.75VWAGY (Bullish) 29.621 - 49.358 prev. close: 36.3WEAT (Bearish) 5.8 - 6.067 prev. close: 6.01WM (Bullish) 124.021 - 132.93 prev. close: 129.02WMT (Bearish) 131.47 - 137.989 prev. close: 135.83WOOF (Bearish) 20.537 - 24.389 prev. close: 22.16X (Bullish) 19.365 - 29.233 prev. close: 26.17XEG.TRT (Bullish) 6.947 - 7.795 prev. close: 7.53XL (Bearish) 8.081 - 10.603 prev. close: 8.98XM (Bearish) 30.643 - 34.795 prev. close: 32.91XME (Bullish) 35.888 - 41.887 prev. close: 39.92XOM (Bullish) 52.528 - 57.986 prev. close: 55.83XOP (Bullish) 74.358 - 84.851 prev. close: 81.34YETI (Bullish) 64.387 - 78.212 prev. close: 72.21YEXT (Bearish) 13.144 - 16.17 prev. close: 14.48ZEB.TRT (Bullish) 32.8 - 33.621 prev. close: 33.15ZM (Bearish) 295.575 - 342.588 prev. close: 321.29 Best of luck out there !! CA.

Morning before we begin, if you guys wana check out the market news scroll right to the bottom. Right! Let's get to the show. 👇👇 Well, the volatility I was hoping for didn’t manifest itself. Not to worry, I was able to get my order filled for LVS@ 61.15 with a size of roughly 270 basis points. Leaving an extra 230 for any new buying opportunities we may potentially have. As of today pnl is sitting at -3basis points. Now on to this morning’s note, here are a few things that jumped out at me this at 4:55 whilst I was making my notes . Commodities are starting to look interesting again (CRB daily) With the dollar breaking out to 93.4 throw in a higher high and a higher low plus it is sitting right at the top of its volatility adjusted range, I have not been doing this for very long but these are the setups I like for long term positions Now, two things could happen , it either breaks and accelerates higher or it corrects and resumes its downward path . Either way, we gonna get a trend. It’s either gonna be a commodity rally in which case I like the look of the “Natty Gassie “, the CRB index or it’s a dollar wrecking ball then I like the look of the UUP etf. We will know one way as the other as this situation unfolds. I am very bullish on growth and the economy especially for countries who are far ahead in terms of rona vaccinations. So any wobbles I will take as an opportunity to purchase things that I like . Bonds are moving again with the 10yr now at 1.72 within a bullish trend , plus a top range of 1.74 and a lower range of 1.57. Traders who are short the TLT should probably collect some profits here. Bond volatility is sitting comfortably at 67.4 with more potential room to run at a top range of 76 and a bottom range of 60. The almighty vix (19.6) is still within a bearish trend with occasionally bullish signals. The range on that is 17.4 on the low end vs a top end of 21.8. Looking back at the last few months it should be noted that the volatility of the vix has been increasingly compressed ie bearish for the vix the fore bullish for stonks. For the FTSE it’s up 0.06% since Monday and still within a bullish trend. Top end of the range for that is 6825 vs the lower end of the range @6675. In terms of risk reward you have about 0.84% upside vs 1.4% downside. Which isn't very enticing IMHO. If you are wondering how I came about the numbers it's volatility adjusted rescaled range that shows potential statistical trading ranges for assets. If you want daily trading ranges for stocks you like send me a ping and I will run the model to calculate it for you. So that's all from me for now. Keep scrolling down for market and macro economic news that I found useful when taking my morning notes hope you them useful. Good luck out there!! In The News Markets Asia Stocks Dip, U.S. Futures Hover as Yields Rise Asian stocks edged lower Wednesday amid upward pressure on bond yields as investors await more details on the next leg of U.S. stimulus spending. The dollar extended gains as it wraps up its best quarter in a year. Banks weighed on Japan’s equity gauge after Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. joined the list of firms globally to take a hit from the meltdown at Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management. Chinese shares retreated while Australia’s index outperformed. U.S. equity futures steadied after a lower close for the S&P 500 Index. Ten-year Treasury yields advanced again in Asian trading, having touched a 14-month high of 1.77% before subsiding overnight. Gold traded around multi-month lows under $1,700 per ounce. Oil was steady before the April 1 meeting of OPEC and its allies. Investors are watching the course of the U.S. growth rebound and its possible impact on inflation, amid concerns that a renewed rise in bond yields could hit some stocks. President Joe Biden is poised to unveil a large infrastructure package, and key jobs data are due Friday. The International Monetary Fund will upgrade its forecast for global economic growth next week. “It’s a really challenging market right now, very volatile, very rocky,” Terri Spath, Zuma Wealth chief investment officer, said on Bloomberg TV. “Although a lot of the economic data is improving, overseas and in the U.S., we are still in a very fragile place. You need to be cautious at this point because you will have some opportunities to buy at lower levels in the near future.” Asian shares defensive, set for monthly loss on bond rout Asian stocks were on the backfoot on Wednesday while the safe-haven dollar held near a one-year high as Treasury yields resumed their upward march, hitting sentiment even as Chinese data underpinned signs of a solid global economic recovery. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan eased from a one-week high of 682.36 points to be last at 680.04 and still a fair distance away from an all-time peak of 745.89 touched just last month. For the month so far, the index is down 1.6% to be on track for its first loss in five months. It is poised for its fourth consecutive quarterly gain though it would be the smallest increase since a 21% fall in March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic brought the world to a standstill. “Markets are watching closely to gauge the damage and potential ripple effects caused by the Archegos Capital Management crisis,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note. Some global banks are facing billions of dollars in losses after U.S. investment firm Archegos Capital Management LP defaulted on margin calls, putting investors on edge about who else might be exposed. Oil market seeks cues from cautious Saudi Arabia, as OPEC+ mulls May production plans Saudi Arabia has a 1 million b/d question to answer. The OPEC kingpin has been cutting its crude production by that much below its official quota the last two months, bolstering oil prices against the unsteady pandemic prognosis. Now as OPEC and its allies prepare to meet April 1 to decide on May output levels, the market awaits word from Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on when the kingdom will begin easing its production restraint. Early indications are that it may not be soon. Faltering oil prices in recent days after a weekslong surge to around $70/b have many analysts forecasting that the so-called OPEC+ group may largely roll over its quotas for at least another month. The OPEC secretariat itself is less bullish than it was just three weeks ago and is revising down its forecast of 2021 oil demand growth to 5.6 million b/d, after officials determined March 30 the previous estimate of 5.9 million b/d was overly optimistic, delegates told S&P Global Platts. The new projection has yet to be finalized. While setting OPEC+ quotas requires unanimous consent among the coalition's nearly two dozen members, Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut is a unilateral decision, making Prince Abdulaziz's reading of the market's tea leaves the focal point of the week. The OPEC+ deliberations will begin with a March 31 virtual meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which the prince co-chairs with Russian counterpart Alexander Novak, before all 23 OPEC+ ministers convene online on April 1. Brussels squares up to UK in fight over euro swaps clearing The EU is gearing up for a campaign to seize greater control of one of the City of London’s most prized assets: its dominance over the clearing of €81tn worth of derivatives contracts that are vital for global businesses. François Hollande fired the starting gun less than a week after the UK’s shock decision in June 2016 to leave the EU, with the French president at the time warning “the City, which thanks to the EU, was able to handle clearing operations for the eurozone, will not be able to do them”. Five years later, the UK still controls 90 per cent of euro swaps clearing, an issue that is causing increasing angst in Brussels and across EU capitals as Britain’s financial regulations begin diverging from those in the bloc. “We are facing a reality — the current concentration is clearly unsustainable,” a senior EU official told the FT. Swaps are widely used by companies to protect themselves against unfavourable changes in interest rates. Brexit has also reshaped trading of euro swaps, pushing it out of the UK capital to EU cities like Paris and Amsterdam as well as across the Atlantic to Wall Street. US storage fields post first net injection of year due to mild weather US storage fields posted the first net injection of the year in the week ended March 27, according to a survey of analysts, which is one week earlier than normal, while the Henry Hub summer and winter strips slipped slightly to $2.70/MMBtu and $2.90/MMBtu, respectively. The US Energy Information Administration is expected to report a 19 Bcf injection for the week ended March 26, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. Responses to the survey ranged from an 8 to 30 Bcf injection. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report on April 1. The forecast increase in storage would be a dramatic change relative to last year and the five-year average, which saw inventories decrease by 20 and 24 Bcf, respectively. When compared with the prior week, milder temperatures weighed on demand and loosened balances. The EIA will most likely announce the first injection of the year primarily due to the arrival of mild, spring temperatures, especially towards the end of the week to March 26, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. However, at the same time, non-weather related demand continues to increase from LNG exporters and industries recovering from the February freeze. These non-weather factors will play a key part in the coming injection season on whether storage can build back to year-ago levels. Cathie Wood sees bright prospects for China’s tech disrupters Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment Management, has thrown her support behind the growth prospects of China’s tech disrupters, despite recent headwinds that have wiped months of gains from tech shares. Wood, who has risen to investment stardom over the past year by earning huge profits from heavy bets on Tesla and other fast-growing US tech giants, spoke to the audience of an online webinar in March, alongside Li Yimei, Beijing-based chief executive of China Asset Management. She highlighted the rise of “disruptive innovation platforms” in China rather than individual companies, which she believes to be the more fundamental forces for exponential growth, including DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence and blockchain. “The US has had a huge lead in a lot of innovation over the years. But now countries are competing with us,” she said. “Competition in technology is a really good thing, in terms of moving the technology forward faster than otherwise would have been the case,” Wood added. Europe UK calls for world to ‘get tough’ with China as part of global trade shake-up Britain’s international trade secretary has called for the world to “get tough with China” as part of a shake-up of the global trading regime, which she claims is “stuck in the 1990s”. Liz Truss will on Wednesday urge the US and other G7 countries to work to revive the World Trade Organization, which has been caught in the crossfire between Washington and Beijing. Speaking ahead of a virtual meeting of G7 trade ministers — the UK is the current chair of the group of advanced economies — Truss urged the US to put its weight behind the daunting task of reforming the WTO. But she argued that any changes had to include a tough approach to Beijing; former US president Donald Trump said the WTO gave special treatment to China, because of its official designation as a “developing country”. “The WTO was established when China was 10 per cent the size of the US economy,” Truss told the Financial Times in an interview. “It is ludicrous that it is still self-designating as a developing country — and those rules need to change.” UK employers turn much more confident about hiring - REC British employers are turning much more confident about hiring staff as the country speeds ahead with its coronavirus vaccination programme, a survey showed on Wednesday. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) said confidence in hiring rose six percentage points to a net level of +16 in the three months to February 2021. In February alone, it jumped to +29. “Recruiters report that this latest lockdown has been much less damaging than many feared back in January,” Neil Carberry, chief executive of the REC, said. “There is still widespread pessimism about the wider economy, but that may be because respondents fear for sectors that have been shut down during lockdown.” Employers were relying mostly on temporary hiring, a sign of caution about the outlook, and there were concerns about shortages of construction workers, the REC said. Germany to Bar AstraZeneca Vaccine for Those Under 60 Starting Wednesday Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany will halt the use of AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid vaccine for people younger than 60 starting on Wednesday after new cases of rare blood clots emerged. The policy change, endorsed by state health ministers, came after the release of new data on potential side effects of the vaccine. Germany’s vaccination commission said the shots should only be administered to older people as those very rare side effects predominantly occurred in the younger recipients. “These are findings that we and the vaccine commission cannot ignore,” Merkel told reporters Tuesday night. “We all know that vaccination is the most important tool against the coronavirus -- that we have different vaccines at our disposal is our good fortune.” The move marks an astonishing about-face after Germany and other European countries first endorsed the use of the shots only for younger people, amid an initial lack of data for those over 60. They later recommended the use for everyone. Then, earlier this month, a number of countries including Germany temporarily suspended the jab before resuming it after the European Union’s drug regulator said it was safe. Americas Volkswagen U.S. Name Change Was April Fool’s Joke Gone Awry Volkswagen of America’s purported name change to “Voltswagen” was an April Fool’s joke gone bad. On Monday, the automaker briefly posted, then removed, a draft press release on its website related to branding, sparking media speculation that company was changing its name to promote electric vehicles. VW published the announcement in full on Tuesday, pledging to rebrand as “Voltswagen” in the U.S., “a public declaration of the company’s future-forward investment in e-mobility.” Later Tuesday, the company fessed up. “The renaming was designed to be an announcement in the spirit of April Fool’s Day,” VW said in a statement after removing the release from its U.S. media site. “We will provide additional updates on this matter soon.” Earlier, a VW spokesperson at the German manufacturer’s headquarters in Wolfsburg called it “an interesting idea” from the marketing department. U.S. Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 15 Years U.S. home prices are rising at the fastest pace in 15 years, reflecting how fiercely buyers are competing for a limited supply of homes in nearly every corner of the country. From small cities like Bridgeport, Conn., to large ones like Seattle, prices have been steadily moving higher. Two closely-watched house-price indicators released Tuesday posted double-digit national price growth, demonstrating the widespread strength of the market. A number of forces have merged to fuel the red hot housing market, including mortgage rates dropping below 3% in July for the first time ever. Millions of millennials are aging into their prime-homebuying years in their 30s. New-home construction has lagged behind demand and homeowners are holding on to their houses longer. The coronavirus pandemic has turbocharged this demand. Many Americans sought homes with more space to work remotely during Covid-19, or felt freed to move farther from their offices. At the same time, the pandemic worsened the already severe shortage of homes for sale. Low interest rates prompted more homeowners to refinance and stay put instead of moving. Others delayed their moves due to concern about virus exposure, according to real-estate agents. Even as home builders have ramped up the pace of new construction in an effort to keep up with demand, they are limited by rising material costs and shortages of land and labor. “It really can only be characterized as a super sellers’ market, not even just a sellers’ market,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. “The supply-demand imbalance isn’t going away anytime soon.” APAC U.S. trade war pushing China to steal tech, talent, Taiwan says The China-U.S. trade war is pushing Beijing to step up its efforts to steal technology and poach talent from Taiwan to boost China’s semiconductor industry’s self-sufficiency, the government of the tech-powerhouse island said on Wednesday. Washington has taken aim at China’s tech industry during the bitter trade dispute, putting sanctions on firms including telecoms equipment giant Huawei Technologies Ltd, saying they are a threat to national security, angering Beijing. Chinese-claimed Taiwan is home to a thriving and world-leading chip industry, and the government has long worried about China’s efforts to copy that success, through fair means or foul. Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on how to respond to the “red supply chain” - a reference to the colour of China’s ruling Communist Party - Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said the trade war had created new risks. Database reveals secrets of China's loans to developing nations, says study The terms of China’s loan deals with developing countries are unusually secretive and require borrowers to prioritise repayment of Chinese state-owned banks ahead of other creditors, a study of a cache of such contracts showed on Wednesday. The dataset - compiled over three years by AidData, a U.S. research lab at the College of William & Mary - comprises 100 Chinese loan contracts with 24 low- and middle-income countries, a number of which are struggling under mounting debt burdens amid the economic fallout from the COVID-10 pandemic. Much focus has turned to the role of China, which is the world’s biggest creditor, accounting for 65% of official bilateral debt worth hundreds of billions of dollars across Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. “China is the world’s largest official creditor, but we lack basic facts about the terms and conditions of its lending,” the authors, including Anna Gelpern, a law professor at Georgetown University in the United States, wrote in their paper. The researchers at AidData, the Washington-based Center for Global Development (CGD), Germany’s Kiel Institute and the Peterson Institute for International Economics compared Chinese loan contracts with those of other major lenders to produce the first systematic evaluation of the legal terms of China’s foreign lending, according to CGD. Their analysis uncovered several unusual features to the agreements that expanded standard contract tools to boost the chances of repayment, they said in the 77-page report. Middle East U.S. open to discussing wider nuclear deal road map if Iran wishes Efforts to sketch out initial U.S. and Iranian steps to resume compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal have stalled and Western officials believe Iran may now wish to discuss a wider road map to revive the pact, something Washington is willing to do. U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides initially believed Iran, with which they have not had direct discussions, wanted to talk about first steps toward a revival of the agreement that Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, abandoned in 2018. The agreement eased economic sanctions on Tehran in return for curbs to the Iranian nuclear program designed to make it harder to develop an atomic weapon - an ambition Tehran denies. Three Western officials said the Biden administration and Iran had mainly communicated indirectly via European parties to the deal - Britain, France and Germany - and that they believe Iran now wants to discuss a broader plan to return to the pact. “What we had heard was that they were interested first in a series of initial steps, and so we were exchanging ideas on a series of initial steps” said a U.S. official who, like others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity. Turkey logs highest new coronavirus cases since beginning of pandemic Turkey has recorded 37,303 new coronavirus cases in the space of 24 hours, the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic more than a year ago, health ministry data showed on Tuesday. The government had said on Monday it would tighten restrictions on movement and gatherings because of rising infections, less than a month after easing them. President Tayyip Erdogan announced the tightening, including the return of full nationwide weekend lockdowns for the holy Islamic month of Ramadan. The latest daily death toll was 155, bringing the cumulative toll to 31,385, according to the data. Iran rejects ending 20% enrichment before U.S. lifts sanctions - state TV Iran will not stop its 20% uranium enrichment before the United States lifts all sanctions, Iranian state TV quoted an unnamed official as saying on Tuesday, as Washington considered ways to jump-start nuclear talks. The Biden administration has been seeking to engage Iran in talks about both sides resuming compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal. The agreement removed economic sanctions on Tehran in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program to make it harder to develop a nuclear weapon - an ambition Tehran denies. “A senior Iranian official tells Press TV that Tehran will stop its 20-percent uranium enrichment only if the U.S. lifts ALL its sanctions on Iran first,” state-run Press TV said on its website. That's really all for now. CA

It is a shame IG doesn't allow purchases on bitcoin but if you are flexible enough to have a position in it, I want to point you to a chart I pulled this evening. We are heading towards the top of the range here so I would not be buying any here not because its a bad investment or speculative asset but more a function of appropriate risk management. I would like to buy some but I have no qualms waiting for prices to hit the low end of the range. Hopefully this occurs sometime in April.

No worries . Will try to do these at least once daily. It’s very important to be macro aware

Stocks Steady as Yields Climb on Vaccine Outlook Asia stocks drifted and Treasury yields climbed as investors weighed rapid progress in the U.S. vaccine rollout against the risk of further blow-back from the implosion of Archegos Capital Management. Shares rose in China and Hong Kong while Japan’s index fell, led by banks. Nomura Holdings Inc. said it’s too soon to estimate the impact of losses tied to a U.S. client, identified by Bloomberg as Bill Hwang, head of the troubled investment firm. U.S. futures fluctuated as traders assessed broader Wall Street exposures. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index lifted off lows on President Joe Biden’s announcement that 90% of adults will be eligible for the Covid-19 vaccine next month. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 1.74%, and the five-year hit its highest point in a year. Australia’s benchmark yield jumped 10 basis points. The U.S. dollar held steady. “It’s never better when you are a shark in the water to be buying from a forced sellers,” said Spotlight Asset Group’s Shana Sissel on Bloomberg TV. The chief investment officer is skeptical of the potential for broader market fallout from Archegos. “I find it hard to believe that this would have a systemic massive impact on global markets beyond the few positions that they held.” Ripples are barely detectable in credit markets so far, though traders are demanding higher rates to hedge potential losses on the debt of banks caught up in the Archegos situation, including Nomura and Credit Suisse Group AG. Archegos said that “all plans were being discussed.” Investors have been focusing on the strength of the recovery and inflation risks as governments step up spending to spur growth. Later this week, the U.S. president plans to unveil a further stimulus program with a tilt toward infrastructure. Positive news on vaccines is helping risk appetite, with a real-world study from Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. showing their doses effectively prevented coronavirus infections, U.S. government researchers said. Asia shares mixed as broader worries about U.S. hedge fund default ease Asian shares were mixed early Tuesday as global investors shook off worries about a hedge fund default that roiled global banking stocks overnight, while rekindled concerns about inflation pushed bond yields higher. Wall Street pared earlier losses driven by the banking sector on fears that issues with a defaulting hedge fund could spread throughout the banking sector. In Asia, the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was marginally higher by 0.08% in early in the session Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.36% to 28,440 but in Australia a weaker tone emerged when the S&P/ASX200 slid 0.4% to its lowest point for a week. Mainland China’s CSI300 index is 0.18% higher in early trade while Japan’s Nikkei is off 0.1%. Nomura and Credit Suisse are facing billions of dollars in losses and regulatory scrutiny after a U.S. investment firm, named by sources as Archegos Capital, defaulted on equity derivative bets, putting investors on edge about who else might be exposed. Dollar hits 1-year high versus yen as inflation worries lift yields The dollar climbed to a one-year high against the yen on Tuesday amid a spike in Treasury yields, as accelerating vaccinations and massive stimulus in the U.S. stoked inflation concerns. The safe-haven greenback also found support as investors worried about the potential fallout from the collapse of a hedge fund, identified as Archegos Capital, although those jitters had eased as the Asian trading day got under way. The dollar rose to a cusp of 110 yen in Asia, a level not seen since March of last year. It’s on track for the best month since late 2016, with the end of Japan’s fiscal year this month driving up dollar demand as companies seek to square their books. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose as high as 1.7450% in Asia, approaching the 14-month high of 1.7540% touched earlier this month. The five-year note’s yield pushed as high as 0.9170% for the first time since March of last year. Higher yields make a currency more attractive as an investment. That climb in the shorter-dated yield will keep the dollar’s upward momentum going, according to Chris Weston, the head of research at Pepperstone Markets Ltd, a foreign exchange broker based in Melbourne. “The USD has moved into a different realm as an investment destination,” he wrote in a client note. Crude oil futures edge higher on optimism over OPEC+ meeting, demand Crude oil futures edged higher during mid-morning trade in Asia March 30 as optimism over the OPEC+ coalition persisting with its supply cuts and expectations of increased downstream products demand supported the market, although a stronger US dollar limited the upside. At 10:49 am Singapore time (0249 GMT), the ICE Brent May contract was up 16 cents/b (0.25%) from the March 29 settle at $65.14/b, while the May NYMEX light sweet crude contract was 19 cent/b (0.31%) higher at $61.75/b. Ahead of the April 1 OPEC+ meeting, the market brimmed with optimism that the producer group would roll over its April production quotas to May and keep supply in the market tight. Analysts have said this is the likely scenario, since demand-side concerns have continued to fester due to a resurgence of coronavirus infections in Europe and India. "OPEC's cautious approach to the demand recovery saw it extend production curbs until April at the last meeting. Since then the outlook hasn't become any clearer," ANZ analysts said in a March 30 note, adding it was unlikely the coalition would raise production given that market sentiment has barely improved. Despite an almost unanimous agreement among analysts that OPEC+ would defer any increase in production, a Saudi Arabian source told S&P Global Platts that a decision on the status of the cuts had not yet been made and that the speculation in the market was premature. New Mideast Crude Contract May Test OPEC’s Grip on Oil Abu Dhabi allowed trading of a futures contract linked to its flagship grade of crude for the first time on Monday in a debut that could test OPEC’s grip on oil prices. Prices for Murban futures rose 0.6% to $63.90 a barrel on Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s new ICE Futures Abu Dhabi marketplace. Trading was brisk: More than 6,300 lots, equating to over 6.3 million barrels of crude, changed hands by 5 p.m. local time, or 9 a.m. ET. Futures for Brent crude, the benchmark in international energy markets, edged up 0.6% to $64.98 a barrel after engineers freed the container ship that had blocked the Suez Canal, a thoroughfare for oil and gas. West Texas Intermediate, the main grade of U.S. crude, rose 1% to $61.56 a barrel. Abu Dhabi plans to relinquish control over prices of Murban to investors and traders, a major step in efforts to fortify its position in the international oil market. The goal is to make Murban more attractive to refiners in Asia, where oil producers are battling for customers as Western governments seek to phase out fossil fuels. By allowing crude to trade more freely, the emirate could ultimately undermine the sway of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries over prices. The changes that Abu Dhabi is making will erode the influence of cartel leader Saudi Arabia over time, said Philip Verleger, an energy economist and president of PKVerleger LLC. Archegos banks discussed co-operation to head off selling frenzy The biggest counterparties of Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital last week discussed ways to limit the market fallout from his collapsing bets on stocks including ViacomCBS, according to four people briefed on the talks, but the effort foundered and paved the way for days of chaotic trading. Before the troubles at the family office burst into public view at the end of the week, representatives from its trading partners Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, UBS and Nomura held a meeting with Archegos to discuss an orderly wind-down of troubled trades. The banks had each allowed Archegos to take on billions of dollars of exposure to volatile equities through swaps contracts, and Hwang was struggling to deal with margin calls triggered by a plunge in ViacomCBS shares. An orderly wind-down would minimise the market impact and the hit to their own balance sheets as they worked to sell down stakes in companies that Archegos had amassed through the derivatives instruments. It is unclear whether an understanding was reached but several sources said it was quickly clear that some banks had begun selling to stem their own losses. People familiar with the trading said Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley both appeared to have unloaded small batches of shares in the market after the meeting. Goldman, Morgan Stanley Limit Losses With Fast Sale of Archegos Assets Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley were quick to move large blocks of assets before other large banks that traded with Archegos Capital Management, as the scale of the hedge fund’s losses became apparent, according to people with knowledge of the transactions. The strategy helped limit the U.S. firms’ losses in last week’s epic stock liquidation, they said. Losses at Archegos, run by former Tiger Asia manager Bill Hwang, have triggered the liquidation in excess of $30 billion in value. Banks were continuing to sell blocks of stocks linked to Archegos Monday, traders said. “This is a challenging time for the family office of Archegos Capital Management, our partners and employees. All plans are being discussed as Mr. Hwang and the team determine the best path forward,” a company spokeswoman said in a statement Monday evening. Archegos took big, concentrated positions in companies and held some positions in a mix of stock and swaps. Swaps are a common arrangement in which a trader gets access to the returns generated by a portfolio of shares or other assets in exchange for a fee. Losses threatened to spill over into the so-called prime brokerage businesses that have been handling the firm’s trading. The group of large Wall Street banks includes Goldman, Morgan, Credit Suisse Group AG, Nomura Holdings Inc., UBS Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG , said people familiar with the firm’s trading. ECB Governor Warns Against Sharp Policy Tilt When Crisis Passes The European Central Bank must be cautious when it shifts away from its emergency stimulus even if the economy rebounds from the pandemic as predicted, according to outgoing policy maker Vitas Vasiliauskas. The Governing Council member and head of Lithuania’s central bank, who steps down from those roles next month, said in an interview that the ECB should draw on its earlier experiences of tightening too soon. That means switching back to more-standard monetary tools only gradually. Even after inflation is back to its pre-pandemic trajectory, policy makers will need to keep quantitative easing in place for “quite a while,” he predicted. “I don’t think we can allow ourselves to make very sharp changes to our monetary policy, especially having in mind our historic experience,” Vasiliauskas said on Monday. “It would be better to live a little bit longer in the transitional situation.” ECB officials have been forced to backtrack in the past decade after capping or withdrawing monetary support too soon. They halted bond purchases at the end of 2018 -- only to restart buying within a year as the economy deteriorated -- and were forced to reverse two interest-rate increases in 2011. S Korea may rekindle US crude appetite amid high Middle East prices, fuel demand recovery South Korean refiners are looking to revive US crude oil purchases over the coming trading cycles as major Middle Eastern suppliers maintain strong discipline over production levels and continue raising their official selling prices, while domestic transportation fuel demand is expected to improve following the launch of the mass vaccination program. South Korea imported 8.69 million barrels of crude from the US in February, down 28.6% from a year earlier, but the shipments were up 60.2% from 5.43 million barrels received in January, placing the North American producer at the second-highest spot of the suppliers' list for the month, latest data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp. showed. Middle Eastern crude supply remains tight, while major OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE, have been consistently raising their official selling prices, prompting major South Korean refiners to tap into the North American market for top-up spot barrels, according to refinery feedstock trading sources in Seoul and a market analyst at Korea Petroleum Association. "Depending on OPEC's production cut strategy for the second quarter, while also considering the uptrend in Middle Eastern official selling prices, South Korea may import at least three VLCCs, or around 6 million barrels, of US crude on average per month over Q2 and Q3," a crude oil and condensate procurement manager at a major South Korean refiner said. Europe EU official urges Greece to investigate reports of asylum-seeker pushbacks Greece “can do more” to investigate reports it has pushed asylum-seekers back to Turkey, a senior European Union official said on Monday, as Greek authorities pledged a new migrant reception centre on the island of Lesbos would open in time for winter. The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR has said it has received a growing number of reports in recent months suggesting asylum-seekers may have been pushed back to Turkey at sea or immediately after reaching Greek soil, or left adrift at sea. Greek officials have always rejected the reports. “I am very concerned about the UNHCR report and there are some specific cases that I really think need to be looked into closer,” Ylva Johansson, the EU’s home affairs commissioner, said during a visit to the island of Lesbos. “I think the Greek authorities can do more when it comes to investigating these alleged pushbacks.” Americas Biden targets big offshore wind power expansion to fight climate change The Biden administration on Monday unveiled a goal to expand the nation’s fledgling offshore wind energy industry in the coming decade by opening new areas to development, accelerating permits, and boosting public financing for projects. The plan is part of President Joe Biden’s broader effort to eliminate U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to fight climate change, an agenda that Republicans argue could bring economic ruin but which Democrats say can create jobs while protecting the environment. The blueprint for offshore wind power generation comes after the Biden administration’s suspension of new oil and gas leasing auctions on federal lands and waters, widely seen as a first step to fulfilling the president’s campaign promise of a permanent ban on new federal drilling to counter global warming. The United States, with just two small offshore wind facilities, has lagged European nations in developing the renewable energy technology. The administration of Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump had vowed to launch offshore wind as a promising new domestic industry but failed to permit any projects. “We’re ready to rock and roll,” National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy said at a virtual press conference to announce the administration’s moves. Biden to explain funding of $3 trillion infrastructure plan Wednesday -White House U.S. President Joe Biden will outline how he would pay for his $3 trillion to $4 trillion plan to tackle America’s infrastructure needs on Wednesday, the White House confirmed on Monday, a proposal likely to include tax increases first laid out on the campaign trail. Biden will lay out the plan, which is aimed at rebuilding roads and bridges as well as tackling climate change and domestic policy issues like income equality, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. “The president has a plan to fix the infrastructure of our country ... and he has a plan to pay for it,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters. Biden Says U.S. Adds New Covid-19 Vaccine Sites, Warns Against Complacency President Biden said Monday his administration is adding new vaccine sites, as he and other officials asked Americans to keep taking precautions and the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention described a feeling of “impending doom” with Covid-19 cases rising recently. Mr. Biden said the administration is more than doubling the number of pharmacies in the federal program and opening additional mass vaccination sites. He said 90% of adults would be eligible for vaccination by April 19, and 90% will have a vaccination site within 5 miles of their residence. Several states have been broadening their eligibility requirements for vaccine appointments in recent days. The president also called on governors and local officials to maintain or reinstate mask mandates and said states should pause their reopening efforts. Although the U.S. has vaccinated more people than any other country, administration officials said the spread of new variants that are more transmissible, an increase in travel and loosened restrictions in several states could lead to a surge US to make it easier for diplomats to meet Taiwanese officials The Biden administration is preparing to issue guidelines that would make it easier for US diplomats to meet Taiwanese officials by adopting some of the changes introduced by Donald Trump, in a move China is likely to see as a provocation. In one of his final acts in office, Trump significantly loosened constraints that had made it difficult for US diplomats to hold such meetings. Experts were waiting to see if Joe Biden would reverse course. But the measures under consideration would keep many of the Trump changes in place, according to people briefed on the policy. The limits on contacts between American diplomats and Taiwanese officials had been in effect for decades until Trump loosened them. One person familiar with the guidelines said they would focus on encouraging US officials to meet Taiwanese counterparts rather than imposing limits on contact. A second person said most of the restrictions on interactions “between US and Taiwanese diplomats . . . will disappear”. APAC Japan's retail sales fall for third straight month Japanese retail sales fell for the third straight month in February as households kept a lid on expenditure amid the coronavirus emergency, underscoring the fragile nature of the economy’s recovery from last year’s slump. Analysts expect Japan’s economy sharply contracted in the first quarter, as lacklustre consumer spending and weakening exports create challenges for policymakers who have already rolled out massive stimulus. Retail sales lost 1.5% in February from a year earlier, government data showed on Tuesday, a smaller fall than the median market forecast for a 2.8% drop. But it marked the third straight month of declines following January’s 2.4% fall and a 0.2% drop in December. “That the coronavirus isn’t subsiding is a major reason to worry about a delay of an economic recovery,” said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. China's parliament approves Hong Kong electoral system reform plan: SCMP The top decisionmaking body of the Chinese parliament unanimously approved a plan on Tuesday to reform Hong Kong’s electoral system, the South China Morning Post reported citing the city’s sole representative to the body. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee approved the plan by a vote of 167-0, the paper said, citing comments from Tam Yiu-chung, who represents Hong Kong on the committee. Middle East Traffic in Suez Canal resumes after stranded ship refloated Shipping was on the move again late on Monday in Egypt’s Suez Canal after tugs refloated a giant container ship which had been blocking the channel for almost a week, causing a huge build-up of vessels around the waterway. With the 400-metre-long (430-yard) Ever Given dislodged, 113 ships were expected to transit the canal in both directions by early Tuesday morning, Suez Canal Authority (SCA) chairman Osama Rabie told reporters. He said a backlog of 422 ships could be cleared in 3 -1/2 days. The Ever Given had become jammed diagonally across a southern section of the canal, the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia, in high winds early on March 23. Evergreen Line, which is leasing the Ever Given, said the ship would be inspected for seaworthiness in the Great Bitter Lake, which separates two sections of the canal. “The ship was ready for limited navigation after an initial inspection and not a single container was damaged, but a second investigation will be more precise and if it was affected it will show,” Rabie said. Iran rejects ending 20% enrichment before U.S. lifts sanctions - state TV Iran will not stop its 20% uranium enrichment before the United States lifts all sanctions, Iranian state TV quoted an unnamed official as saying on Tuesday in reaction to a U.S. media report that Washington would offer a new proposal to jump-start talks. The Biden administration has been seeking to engage Iran in talks about both sides resuming compliance with the deal, under which economic sanctions on Tehran were removed in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme to make it harder to develop a nuclear weapon - an ambition Tehran denies. “A senior Iranian official tells Press TV that Tehran will stop its 20-percent uranium enrichment only if the U.S. lifts ALL its sanctions on Iran first,” state-run Press TV said on its website. “The official said Tehran will further reduce its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal if the U.S. does not lift all sanctions, warning that Washington is rapidly running out of time,” it added. Investing Idea( 6 month outlook) I have added LVS ( Las Vags Sands) to my portfolio , as a way to place the reopening and an acceleration of vaccinations in the US. The idea is as people get more vaccinations , gambling businesses flourish due to increased mobility. Check out the charts below. Looks bullish and the volatility also looks like it may have peaked. I placed a limit order this morning of 1%. Also Looking at volatility index ( VIX) , it may break towards 22-23 ish, at which point I will add another 1% with a max of 3.5-4%. Let's see how it goes. See below for the charts for volatility and LVS ( I like to buy when vol is high and rising in small 0.5%- 1% increments).

The Newsquawk pre-market roundup - • Asia-Pac equity markets eventually traded mostly higher as the region picked up the baton from last week's late surge on Wall St • In FX, the DXY consolidated overnight, EUR/USD was rangebound beneath 1.18, GBP/USD sits on a 1.37 handle • German Chancellor Merkel threatened the use of federal law to toughen pandemic restrictions • The stuck tanker in the Suez Canal has reportedly been refloated with engineers partially freeing the ship • White House Press Secretary Psaki stated that President Biden plans to split his Build Back Better package into two separate proposals. In The News Markets U.S. Futures Drop, Stocks Mixed After Block Trades U.S. equity futures fell and Asian stocks were mixed Monday as traders assessed a $20 billion wave of block trades. Oil dropped after the ship blocking the Suez Canal was partially refloated. Shares in Japan retreated amid a slide in Nomura Holdings Inc., which warned of a possible “significant” loss that people familiar with the matter said was related to the unwinding of trades by Archegos Capital Management LLC. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares was little changed. U.S. equity futures declined following revelations that Archegos -- the family office of Bill Hwang -- was behind the block trades, selling Chinese tech giants and U.S. media firms. Credit Suisse Group AG said it and a number of other banks are existing positions after a hedge fund defaulted on margin calls. European equity futures were marginally in the red. West Texas Intermediate crude was more than 2% lower after the Ever Given was refloated. It wasn’t clear how soon the Suez Canal would be open to traffic. A dollar gauge ticked higher and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped. Oil slumps as Suez Canal container ship starts to move Oil slumped more than 2% on Monday after news from the Suez Canal that salvage crews have managed to move the giant container ship that has been clogging up the vital global trade passage for nearly a week. Brent oil was down $1.38, or 2.1%, at $63.19 a barrel by 0511 GMT. U.S. crude fell 1.48 cents, or 2.4%, to $59.49 a barrel. The stranded container ship Ever Given has almost been completely floated and will be inspected before it is moved, a shipping source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. Bond Bulls Charge Ahead, Challenging Consensus on Rising Yields Robert Tipp doesn’t buy the popular Wall Street view that U.S. government bond yields are bound to keep rising this year, though he allows that they could before likely falling later. The chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, Mr. Tipp is among a relatively small group of contrarians who have bet for months that the forces lifting bond yields—expectations for a post pandemic surge in growth and inflation, increased government borrowing—are no match for the structural factors that have suppressed them for decades. Mr. Tipp’s position is notable because he and other so-called bond bulls have generally been right about the direction of Treasury yields over the past 30 years. That gives their perspective some added ballast as investors confront a set of highly unusual circumstances, including the possible end of a pandemic and an unprecedented surge in peacetime government spending and tax cuts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a key driver of interest rates across the economy, topped 1.7% earlier this month for the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, settling Friday at 1.658%. That was up from 0.913% at the end of last year but down from around 5% 15 years ago and 8% 30 years ago. Vanguard, BlackRock Join Investors Pledging Net-Zero Emissions The world’s largest asset managers have joined a group of investors committing to cut the net greenhouse-gas emissions of their portfolios to zero. BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. are among 43 investment firms managing more than $22.8 trillion of assets that are joining the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, according to a statement Monday. By signing up, the money managers are pledging to support efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by targeting net-zero emissions by 2050 across all their holdings. They also will set a public goal for the proportion of their assets that in 2030 will be on course for net zero. Eliminating emissions is becoming a greater focus for investors as activists, clients and regulators push them to move from talk to action and use their influence and resources to hold companies to account. And there is a growing urgency to act since scientists have said emissions need to drop by about 50% by 2030 and reach net zero by the middle of the century to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. “Climate change represents a long-term, material risk to our investors’ portfolios,” Vanguard Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tim Buckley said in the statement. “As a steward of our clients’ assets, we recognize the crucial role we and others play in driving real progress on climate risk over time.” Nomura shares plunge after fire sale of $20bn in US and Chinese stocks Nomura could face a total wipeout of its profits for the second half of the financial year following a fire sale of about $20bn of Chinese and US stocks linked to a massive unwinding of assets by Archegos Capital Management. Shares in Japan’s largest investment bank fell by as much as 16 per cent on Monday morning in Tokyo, erasing over $3.2bn from its market capitalisation, as Nomura warned of recent transactions with an unnamed client and the risk of a “significant loss” at its US subsidiary. Bankers from other institutions providing prime brokerage services to Archegos said they understood the fund was the unnamed client referred to by Nomura. The Japanese bank provides prime brokerage services to Archegos, which was founded by former hedge manager Bill Hwang, they said. A private investment firm, Archegos was behind billions of dollars worth of share sales that captivated Wall Street on Friday. The fund, which had large exposures to ViacomCBS and several Chinese technology stocks, was hit hard after shares of the US media group began to tumble on Tuesday and Wednesday. The declines prompted a margin call from one of Archegos’ prime brokers, triggering similar demands for cash from other banks. Credit Suisse warns of 'significant' losses from exiting hedge fund positions Credit Suisse’s first quarter results could suffer a material impact after the bank started exiting positions after a U.S.-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls it made, the bank said on Monday. “While at this time it is premature to quantify the exact size of the loss resulting from this exit, it could be highly significant and material to our first quarter results,” the bank said. Switzerland’s second biggest lender said the un-named hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week by Credit Suisse and other banks. A margin call is a demand from a broker to add more money to an account to cover potential losses. Following the failure of the fund to meet these margin commitments, Credit Suisse and a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions, Credit Suisse said. Europe Merkel presses German states to get tough with COVID curbs Chancellor Angela Merkel pressed Germany’s states on Sunday to step up efforts to curb rapidly rising coronavirus infections, and raised the possibility of introducing curfews to try to get a third wave under control. Merkel expressed dissatisfaction that some states were choosing not to halt a gradual reopening of the economy even as the number of infections per 100,000 people over seven days had risen over 100 - a measure she and regional leaders had agreed on in early March. “We have our emergency brake ... unfortunately, it is not respected everywhere. I hope that there might be some reflection on this,” Merkel said in a rare appearance on broadcaster ARD’s Anne Will talk show. Coronavirus infections have risen rapidly in recent weeks, driven by more transmissible strains of the virus. Merkel’s chief of staff warned earlier on Sunday that the country was in the most dangerous phase of the pandemic and must suppress the virus now or risk dangerous mutations that were immune to vaccines. On Sunday, the incidence of the virus per 100,000 rose to 130 from 104 a week ago. The number of total confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany increased by 17,176 to 2,772,401, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed on Sunday. The reported death toll rose by 90 to 75,870, the tally showed. UK economic data confound forecasters and beat expectations The latest UK economic data has been significantly better than economists expected, suggesting households and companies have been more resilient to the latest lockdown and Britain will climb international economic performance league tables in the months ahead. Most of the important economic data for the period of the lockdown that began on January 4, including output, employment, business sentiment and public finances, have been better than forecast and much stronger than in the first lockdown, showing the ability of businesses and consumers to adapt. With the UK economy poised to reopen gradually in the weeks ahead amid a successful coronavirus vaccination rollout, unlike much of the EU, the prospects for the immediate economic recovery are strong. The positive surprises also lower the immediate pressure on policymakers to provide further monetary or fiscal boosts. UK govt to provide sports with further 50 million pounds in support package The UK government said it is providing a further 50 million pounds ($68.88 million) in support grants for sports in the latest tranche of its winter survival package to help deal with the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government said in a statement on Monday that horse racing, rugby league, speedway and drag racing would receive a combined 40 million pounds, while National League soccer clubs across Steps 1-6 will get 10 million pounds. The grants will help cover essential costs due to the lack of spectators at venues because of the pandemic. “We promised to stand by and protect our major spectator sports when we had to postpone fans returning,” said Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden. More than a fifth of small UK exporters have temporarily halted EU sales More than a fifth of small British exporters have temporarily halted sales to the European Union and 4% have done so permanently, a survey showed on Monday, highlighting problems that have followed the Brexit trade deal. A trade agreement between London and Brussels that came into force on Jan. 1 has caused disruption and delays for some companies having to deal with new bureaucracy and rules. In the survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), 30 out of 132 exporters said they had stopped sales to the European Union temporarily, while five reported having done so permanently. Just over one in 10 said they had set up, or were thinking of establishing, a presence within an EU country, the research, conducted between March 1 and 15, showed. UK's Johnson urges caution as some lockdown measures ease Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged Britons to be cautious as a stay-at-home order and some other lockdown measures are lifted in England, citing rising cases in other parts of Europe and the threat posed by new variants of the virus. The government will also set up a new Office for Health Promotion to help tackle obesity, improve mental health and promote exercise. Johnson himself said he was “too fat” when he became gravely ill with COVID-19 last year. From Monday, up to six people, or two households, in England can meet outside whilst outdoor sporting facilities such as tennis and basketball courts can be used with social contact limits in place. Bank of England clamps down on Brexit-driven EU relocations The Bank of England is demanding that lenders seek its approval before relocating UK jobs or operations to the EU, after becoming concerned that European regulators are asking for more to move than is necessary for financial stability after Brexit. The BoE has taken this stance — described by one senior banker as “increasingly curmudgeonly” — after hearing of several requests from the European Central Bank that it considers excessive and beyond what is required from a prudential supervisory perspective, according to people familiar with the move. Governor Andrew Bailey has taken a personal interest in the issue, they added. UK politicians and regulators have long been concerned that their European counterparts are attempting to poach as much financial services business as possible under the guise of repatriating robust oversight of all euro-related financial activities. They fear the loss of associated jobs, tax revenue and prestige. Americas Blinken says finishing Nord Stream 2 pipeline ultimately up to builders U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that it was ultimately up to those building the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline whether to complete it despite opposition from Washington. On Wednesday, Blinken said he had told his German counterpart that U.S. sanctions against the pipeline from Russia to Germany were a real possibility and there was “no ambiguity” in American opposition to its construction. Because the pipeline would run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine, critics argue that it would deprive Kiev of lucrative transit revenues and potentially undercut Ukrainian efforts to counter Russian aggression. The Kremlin says the $11 billion venture led by Russian state energy company Gazprom is a commercial project, but several U.S. administrations have opposed the project. Biden Plans to Split Spending Plan in Two President Biden plans to split up his next big government-spending push into two programs and will lay out his vision for an infrastructure-focused first proposal, including green-energy programs, at an event in Pittsburgh this week, a top administration official said Sunday. The second proposal, which the administration plans to release in April, would focus more on child care and healthcare programs, among other priorities for the administration, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on “Fox News Sunday.” At some point the administration plans to propose tax increases on higher-income households and businesses to help pay for the programs, though it has yet to lay out its tax strategy or how it will fit together with the next two proposals. Ms. Psaki also left open the possibility that both elements of the president’s spending plans could be pursued in one legislative package. U.S. Farmers Vie for Land as a Grain Rally Sparks Shopping Spree In a resurgent American Farm Belt, the hottest commodity around is dirt. Across the Midwest, prices to buy and rent farmland are climbing as demand is driven by rallying grain markets, historic government payments and low interest rates, according to economists, agricultural lenders and land managers. The battle for farmland is playing out in small town community centers, online portals and parking lots, where bids in Covid-19-era auctions are placed with a wave from the window of a pickup truck or a quick flashing of headlights. There, auctioneers are peddling parcels of land to farmers eager to cash in on the best commodity prices in nearly a decade. They are also presiding over intense jockeying for fields that can test the fabric of rural communities as a shrinking set of growers compete for control of the nation’s prime soil. “Each month it seems like we’re setting new highs in the auctions we’re handling,” said Mike Norgaard, co-owner of Northwestern Farm Management Co., which sells and rents land in such states as Iowa and Minnesota. APAC China warns companies against politicising actions regarding Xinjiang Chinese officials on Monday said Sweden’s H&M and other foreign companies should not to make rash moves or step into politics after the companies raised concerns about forced labour in Xinjiang, sparking furious online backlash and boycotts. H&M, Burberry, Nike and Adidas and other Western brands have been hit by consumer boycotts in China since last week over comments about their sourcing of cotton in Xinjiang. The growing rift comes as the United States and other Western governments increase pressure on China over suspected human-rights abuses in the western region. “I don’t think a company should politicize its economic behaviour,” said Xu Guixiang, a Xinjiang government spokesman at a news conference on Monday morning. “Can H&M continue to make money in the Chinese market? Not any more.” “To rush into this decision and get involved in the sanctions is not reasonable. It’s like lifting a stone to drop it on one’s own feet,” he said. Chinese social media users last week began circulating a 2020 statement by H&M announcing it would no longer source cotton from Xinjiang. Middle East Container ship Ever Given has been partially refloated in Suez Canal The container ship Ever Given has been partially refloated and tugs are still assisting operations at the Suez Canal, according to shipping agencies and sources at the location with knowledge of the developments. Representatives of shipping agencies said they were still waiting for the Suez Canal Authority to make an official announcement. It remained unclear as to what extent the vessel had been dislodged and how soon the passage would be open to vessel transits. The Ever Given has already been partially refloated, but the salvage operation is continuing, an official at shipping agent, Leth Agencies said, adding that several tugboats were assisting the ship. Even with the ship refloated, it will be several days before the traffic backlog can be cleared, and the near-term impact will only wear off early next month, a few shipping brokers said. The main challenge is to safely tow the ship away without it running aground again, a marine navigator tracking the developments said. Iran and China sign 25-year cooperation agreement China and Iran, both subject to U.S. sanctions, signed a 25-year cooperation agreement on Saturday to strengthen their long-standing economic and political alliance. “Relations between the two countries have now reached the level of strategic partnership and China seeks to comprehensively improve relations with Iran,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted by Iran’s state media as telling his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. “Our relations with Iran will not be affected by the current situation, but will be permanent and strategic,” Wang said ahead of the televised signing ceremony. “Iran decides independently on its relations with other countries and is not like some countries that change their position with one phone call.” India calls Saudi advice on tapping stored oil 'undiplomatic' Indian oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Friday described his Saudi counterpart’s advice to reduce oil stores to tackle high crude prices as “undiplomatic”. “That was in a way (an) undiplomatic answer by some of our old friend. I politely disagree with that kind of approach. “Certainly India has its own strategy, when and how to use our own storage, and we are conscious about our interests,” Pradhan said at Times Network’s India Economic Conclave in the Indian capital. Pradhan has criticised OPEC and Saudi output cuts aimed at supporting prices and suggested India will have to look for energy alternatives to Gulf oil, its main source of crude. With India hard hit by rising oil prices, Pradhan has repeatedly called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to ease supply curbs. That's it for now more later!!

Inflationary pressures will accelerate over the next three months as a result of base effects. Then towards the end if the year the dust will settle IMHO.

Have you tried yahoo finance ?