Does your strategy work on any market?

[u0362565]

Hi all,

I often hear people say the markets are all the same and so if they feel that way their strategy must work equally well on all of them.

However, when I look at the markets I don't think stock markets behave the same as Forex for example. I look at Forex and can't make heads or tails of what's going on but I see more structure and repeated patterns in the stock markets. Is this all in my head and I'm just interpreting what I'm seeing or are they truly different and therefore different strategies are required.

[Karma]

I think trending markets and flat/oscillating markets require different strategies. I use Dochian/MACD for first but I am hopeless when no trend. I heard channel trading works but just trying out.

[jlz]

No, normally strategies are market related. You will find many people that trade only one market on a daily basis and eventually will venture into other options.

The benefit of watching a market constantly is that you get to understand it better than if you would look at many.

You could group markets into their trends i.e sideways, long or short markets , then your techniques might be valid for multiple markets, but since you have to account position sizing based on price,  volatility and margin required  I doubt that a single technique would work in multiple markets.

[Karma]

I agree with Jlz - though there is so much **** out there so hard to filter through and get the correct info.

[u0362565]

Ok thanks I think that comes as a relief to me as I've been watching one market in particular for some time and at least within that time i feel I am"getting to know" how it behaves. Trends I can make some sense of although when the trend ends your bit like now what.. So I would imagine being able to adapt to the conditions is beneficial but that might require multiple strategies then.

[THT]

If a method works - it WILL WORK on ALL MARKETS and ALL TIME-FRAMES

The methods that I trade worked over 100 years ago and they are still working to this day, exactly as they did back in the 1920's!

I trade FTSE100, FTSE250, Individual FTSE350 stocks, GOLD, Silver, ETFS, ETCS, EURUSD and all my methods work on all those markets

If you think your method does not do that then the problem is either you or the method

No-one can always read a market - price and time are evolving in 4D, we're forced to view that action on a 2D front on chart

[nondec123]

3 hours ago, THT said:

If a method works - it WILL WORK on ALL MARKETS and ALL TIME-FRAMES

These claims are astrology at best. Some markets are different than others and some strategies works well only in few of them. Stop spreading misinformation.

[u0362565]

13 hours ago, THT said:

If a method works - it WILL WORK on ALL MARKETS and ALL TIME-FRAMES

The methods that I trade worked over 100 years ago and they are still working to this day, exactly as they did back in the 1920's!

I trade FTSE100, FTSE250, Individual FTSE350 stocks, GOLD, Silver, ETFS, ETCS, EURUSD and all my methods work on all those markets

If you think your method does not do that then the problem is either you or the method

No-one can always read a market - price and time are evolving in 4D, we're forced to view that action on a 2D front on chart

Probably both 😀 Interesting split in opinions here. There's so much variation in the markets that probably all opinions are valid some of the time.

[THT]

You and only you can figure that out

Everything you are doing I was doing and trying to figure out over 10 years ago

yep EVERYTHING works at some point, but does it work often enough to be able to trade profitably with/from

To answer your original question - the FOREX markets will look different to the stock market, the stock market organically grows (which is why buying and holding works on it) but the FOREX and for that the commodity markets are different markets in terms of their growth and decline - but the same methods will work on all those markets if they work in the markets on daily and lower time frames, weekly timeframes is where it changes

If this is of Interest to you - get a chart of the Dow from 1915 to present and then one of say the Soybean or wheat market for the same time frame and notice how they display on a chart - the overall growth of the commodity will be limited as it won't go upwards continually like the stock market because its based on real life prices in the shops - it WILL go through growth and decomposition phases though and range itself

But drop down to the daily charts and you'll get the same patterns and formations as you do on the stock market

Viewing charts is all about how you view them and the context 

Just remember only 5% of people trading actually make it work - that means 95% fail and if you're listening to the 95% of people that fail then, well you can work that one out

 

 

[THT]

12 hours ago, nondec123 said:

These claims are astrology at best. Some markets are different than others and some strategies works well only in few of them. Stop spreading misinformation.

OK I'll bow to your superior knowledge - tell you what, lets test it - you pick the markets - pick 3-5 - also in that pick name a timeframe lower than 1 day too please - Lets see who's right here

Also lets have YOUR method too and I'll use that

I'll also show you 1 of mine that I've published on this site too

[THT]

52 minutes ago, THT said:

OK I'll bow to your superior knowledge - tell you what, lets test it - you pick the markets - pick 3-5 - also in that pick name a timeframe lower than 1 day too please - Lets see who's right here

Also lets have YOUR method too and I'll use that

I'll also show you 1 of mine that I've published on this site too

Here's - GOLD, GBPEUR and NASDAQ100 Index

The METHOD/STRAGEY is to buy the dip in an uptrend and sell the rally in a downtrend as confirmed by establishing the TREND that I detail in my THT HOW TO WIN thread:

Funnily enough it seems to work and back up my claim that if a method works, it'll work in ANY market and ANY time-frame - funny that - must be a lucky few years on the market going my way!

I won't bother with the intra-day chart - you get the jist

Now if the question was/is - "Do all markets behave the SAME?" Then the answer is NO - if the question was "do you need differing techniques in different market cycles?" Then the answer is YES

Those weren't the questions though - as you can see BUYING the dip in an uptrend and SELLING the rally in a downtrend works on various markets

DIFFERENT strategies are required for DIFFERENT MARKET CYCLE STAGES - such as when it goes FLAT/Sideways etc - but if a method WORKS it will work in ANY market as long as you're trading the right direction

 

[u0362565]

Yeah I get you on your last point. The question was perhaps too simple.

Your distinction between stock markets and commodities over longer time frames e.g. weeks+ I assume is because at that scale a trending method perhaps wouldn't work because there isn't so much upward bias but over shorter times they behave more alike. For instance i'd feel more confident shorting a Forex market more frequently than a stock market because I always feel like you're fighting against the flow (overall) when shorting stocks.

 

[THT]

11 minutes ago, u0362565 said:

Yeah I get you on your last point. The question was perhaps too simple.

Your distinction between stock markets and commodities over longer time frames e.g. weeks+ I assume is because at that scale a trending method perhaps wouldn't work because there isn't so much upward bias but over shorter times they behave more alike. For instance i'd feel more confident shorting a Forex market more frequently than a stock market because I always feel like you're fighting against the flow (overall) when shorting stocks.

 

I'm making you think on purpose - I don't apologise for that as if its important to you it'll sink in

YES YES YES YES YES YES

I have said for years that professional stock market fund managers would show how bad they really are and all those Investors who Invest based on Fundamentals - because the stock market just goes upwards over time - It has to, because of all the money pouring in and business growth etc If the stock market acted like the commodity and forex markets then it would definitely show the men from the boys 

Commodities and Forex don't do that, they grow and decompose based on other factors - for example the Soybean market jumps up a growth level once every few decades and will trade in a range for x decades, then jump up a growth level, trading sideways etc etc - Forex not enough price data to work out its cycles yet as with gold

SP500 Index - What about 8 really good shorting positions in 60 years! - Bias is definitely UP

That being said the path of least resistance for most stocks making up the index is up which can be bought 

and then 50 years of GBPUSD = a fund managers nightmare

[u0362565]

Perhaps slightly going off topic but sort of makes me wonder why the obsession with Forex. Whenever you hear the word trading, Forex always comes up but to me, not that any market can be divided into best for beginner traders but surely Forex is not what you should be looking at to start with.

 

[THT]

I think for spread betting and CFD's forex has tight spreads - I view trading as any market, for me forex is least important

[Karma]

On 11/02/2021 at 22:53, THT said:

If a method works - it WILL WORK on ALL MARKETS and ALL TIME-FRAMES

The methods that I trade worked over 100 years ago and they are still working to this day, exactly as they did back in the 1920's!

I trade FTSE100, FTSE250, Individual FTSE350 stocks, GOLD, Silver, ETFS, ETCS, EURUSD and all my methods work on all those markets

If you think your method does not do that then the problem is either you or the method

No-one can always read a market - price and time are evolving in 4D, we're forced to view that action on a 2D front on chart

Your method works on all markets with no adapatations?

[THT]

41 minutes ago, Karma said:

Your method works on all markets with no adapatations?

As long as its a freely traded market yes - not sure what you mean by adapatations - but the basis for the method works on all freely traded markets and time-frames 

[Karma]

5 minutes ago, THT said:

As long as its a freely traded market yes - not sure what you mean by adapatations - but the basis for the method works on all freely traded markets and time-frames 

surely for example and I am only just throwing this out in a less liquid market say like lumber you gonna need to have much wider stops?

[THT]

2 minutes ago, Karma said:

surely for example and I am only just throwing this out in a less liquid market say like lumber you gonna need to have much wider stops?

It all depends on the method - Depending on what it is it will work, but the market cycle and conditions may affect things

For those 3 chart I posted above - the stop I would use is a % of ATR - that will change per market and per time-frame but the overall method of trading still works regardless, you just have to adjust the trade parameters

I'm NOT saying that you can just trade a method and it will work - because it needs to be traded in the correct market conditions for it [the method] to work, but if it works, it works as long as its traded in the same market conditions

I am happy to explain further as its fairly crucial to understand

In those charts above the stop goes 1 penny underneath the last swing low - as the method shown was trading up swings of the markets shown and 1 penny above the swing highs for trading the down swings - the stop would depend on entry to stop positions and as a % of ATR for each market - the METHOD worked, the parameters for stop positions etc is up to the individual trader, but it makes no sense in having a wider stop than shown as a violation of the SL/SH means that the trend has failed and over

If using some glorified Indicator to trade from/with then that is when things can become distorted 

For example stupidly trading every stochastic or RSI or MACD when it becomes oversold or overbought - this methods does work, but only in certain conditions, once you work out those conditions you no longer trade the Indicator on every reversal, as such you've improved the trading method to one that does work and can be traded

 

 

[Karma]

44 minutes ago, THT said:

It all depends on the method - Depending on what it is it will work, but the market cycle and conditions may affect things

For those 3 chart I posted above - the stop I would use is a % of ATR - that will change per market and per time-frame but the overall method of trading still works regardless, you just have to adjust the trade parameters

I'm NOT saying that you can just trade a method and it will work - because it needs to be traded in the correct market conditions for it [the method] to work, but if it works, it works as long as its traded in the same market conditions

I am happy to explain further as its fairly crucial to understand

In those charts above the stop goes 1 penny underneath the last swing low - as the method shown was trading up swings of the markets shown and 1 penny above the swing highs for trading the down swings - the stop would depend on entry to stop positions and as a % of ATR for each market - the METHOD worked, the parameters for stop positions etc is up to the individual trader, but it makes no sense in having a wider stop than shown as a violation of the SL/SH means that the trend has failed and over

If using some glorified Indicator to trade from/with then that is when things can become distorted 

For example stupidly trading every stochastic or RSI or MACD when it becomes oversold or overbought - this methods does work, but only in certain conditions, once you work out those conditions you no longer trade the Indicator on every reversal, as such you've improved the trading method to one that does work and can be traded

 

 

so do you trade on monthly charts cause I been thinking that would make very good sense. I must also confesss ATR is something I have not really looked into. 

[THT]

8 minutes ago, Karma said:

so do you trade on monthly charts cause I been thinking that would make very good sense. I must also confesss ATR is something I have not really looked into. 

Yes but the set-ups on monthly charts can take years to form

I prefer WEEKLY and DAILY

ATR - I just like to be a % of recent volatility covering a number of swings 

I posted THT How to WIN as a thread - def worth a read as lots of methods on there that actually work

Thing to remember is - there is nothing new in the markets, they still work as they were working 200 years ago, albeit more people trading and Investing, but the SAME formations form now as they did back then - Indicators came in in the 1970's and are just mathematical formulas of past price action, sometimes they work sometimes they don't work as a method - As traders all we are bothered about is making a profit, so we find methods that work and then exploit the hell out of them as they are more than happy for us to lose!

and every method that works will not work 100% of the time - so the laws of probability take over - Fr Van Tharp explains this perfectly in his book how to  trade your way financial freedom book

 

 

[THT]

GOLD - same formations/methods - different time frames and slightly different market

Chart 1 is WEEKLY spot price

Notice the DOUBLE TOP 9 years apart! connected by the horizontal purple line

Chart 2 is DAILY - GOLD ETF SGLN

Happens all the time if people choose to look properly at charts

[Karma]

I read some of your how to win - sorry its gonna be a weekend job for me as it was very in depth. I found it interesting do you manually trade or autotrade. I am on a massive educational drive. 

[THT]

14 hours ago, Karma said:

I read some of your how to win - sorry its gonna be a weekend job for me as it was very in depth. I found it interesting do you manually trade or autotrade. I am on a massive educational drive. 

Yeah sorry - I've included a bit of advanced stuff in there too - mostly to make people THINK - I keep on adding to it as and when and I try to keep it as simple as possible, as I can remember the task at hand as a new would be trader - My personal journey was I became disillusioned by the **** out there, so I just read as much as I could to form my own opinion

Bear in mind when reading the thread - I attack the markets from a scientific and as close to precision as possible, some of the posts show that, not saying you need to trade that way as it might not suit your personality and how your brain works

I manually trade - purely down to the fact that I had no idea about programming or want to

 

[CaptainSamurai]

THT, when is your motivational book & seminar coming out... 😜

[THT]

28 minutes ago, CaptainSamurai said:

THT, when is your motivational book & seminar coming out... 😜

LOL - that would be never as it would involve dealing with idiotic and stupid members of the public - we used to have one of them on this site 

Everything I have learnt is out there in printed form  - It doesn't need to be re-written, repackaged and sold again

[Karma]

15 minutes ago, THT said:

LOL - that would be never as it would involve dealing with idiotic and stupid members of the public - we used to have one of them on this site 

Everything I have learnt is out there in printed form  - It doesn't need to be re-written, repackaged and sold again

for a new guy how about a book list as honestly so much rubbish written on trading I get confused. Really are there any books you would reccomend.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Karma

[THT]

2 minutes ago, Karma said:

for a new guy how about a book list as honestly so much rubbish written on trading I get confused. Really are there any books you would reccomend.

You HAVE to remember our brains "might" work and see things different - I want precision, I want to be in a trade near to the high/low depending on trade or at worst within 1 bar of the high/low - your personality might not suit that style! 

My How To WIN thread pieces lots together-  lots

My recommended reading list would be in order as they enter my head:

1. Dr Van Tharps books
2. Mark Douglas "Trading in the Zone"
3. John Caters "Master the Trade"
4. Dave Landry "The Laymans guide to trading stocks"
5. Robert Miners "High Probability Trade Strategies"
6. Elliott Wave Original works
7. WD Gann original works 
8. Street Smarts by Linda Raschke and Larry Connors - if a good read but not not brilliant
9. Di Napoli Levels by Joe DiNapoli - is ok'ish - the focus is on Fibonacci retracements and extensions - a lot of this book (which is expensive) is contained in a slightly different style in Robert Miners (cheaper) book noted above in #5
10. I enjoyed reading stuff from Jake Bernstein and Larry Williams too - but I don't use

You have to take little nuggets from each book - I'm NOT saying these styles are perfect - sometimes in the books its not the trading method that is valuable its the other casual stuff that's mentioned

Take John Carters book - I don't use any of his methods at all - its the mental and practical aspects for me

John recently took his trading account to $18million I didn't look how he did it but he trades options and his favourite Indicator is the SQUEEZE Indicator that is in the book

My methods come from WD Gann and 2 of Elliott Wave and a few that I've mixed and created myself 

I'm afraid one the bad things about trading is you have to read and test a lot of the stuff out there to realise it does not work or suit your style, all the while the sharks are happy to take your £ until you fathom it out

In my How to Win thread you'll see I use a 2 period RSI Indicator - This is just as good as the Indicator in Miners book and Joe DiNapoli's book - blindly trading this RSI will result in failing, but using it as I recommend at key times, gives you a high probability of winning

Thing to remember and you'll ignore this is 95% who try to trade for a living fail - It's hard, its easy to place a trade anyone can do it, 100% of those who end up in the 95% think they'll easily be in the 5% - yet end up in the 95%! EVERYTHING is ultra important from the method to enter, exit and planning

In the How to win thread there's a number of keys to success listed

[Karma]

23 hours ago, THT said:

You HAVE to remember our brains "might" work and see things different - I want precision, I want to be in a trade near to the high/low depending on trade or at worst within 1 bar of the high/low - your personality might not suit that style! 

My How To WIN thread pieces lots together-  lots

My recommended reading list would be in order as they enter my head:

1. Dr Van Tharps books
2. Mark Douglas "Trading in the Zone"
3. John Caters "Master the Trade"
4. Dave Landry "The Laymans guide to trading stocks"
5. Robert Miners "High Probability Trade Strategies"
6. Elliott Wave Original works
7. WD Gann original works 
8. Street Smarts by Linda Raschke and Larry Connors - if a good read but not not brilliant
9. Di Napoli Levels by Joe DiNapoli - is ok'ish - the focus is on Fibonacci retracements and extensions - a lot of this book (which is expensive) is contained in a slightly different style in Robert Miners (cheaper) book noted above in #5
10. I enjoyed reading stuff from Jake Bernstein and Larry Williams too - but I don't use

You have to take little nuggets from each book - I'm NOT saying these styles are perfect - sometimes in the books its not the trading method that is valuable its the other casual stuff that's mentioned

Take John Carters book - I don't use any of his methods at all - its the mental and practical aspects for me

John recently took his trading account to $18million I didn't look how he did it but he trades options and his favourite Indicator is the SQUEEZE Indicator that is in the book

My methods come from WD Gann and 2 of Elliott Wave and a few that I've mixed and created myself 

I'm afraid one the bad things about trading is you have to read and test a lot of the stuff out there to realise it does not work or suit your style, all the while the sharks are happy to take your £ until you fathom it out

In my How to Win thread you'll see I use a 2 period RSI Indicator - This is just as good as the Indicator in Miners book and Joe DiNapoli's book - blindly trading this RSI will result in failing, but using it as I recommend at key times, gives you a high probability of winning

Thing to remember and you'll ignore this is 95% who try to trade for a living fail - It's hard, its easy to place a trade anyone can do it, 100% of those who end up in the 95% think they'll easily be in the 5% - yet end up in the 95%! EVERYTHING is ultra important from the method to enter, exit and planning

In the How to win thread there's a number of keys to success listed

Wow ok I am hitting the books - thanks by the way I am also going through your other thread but its so in depth. Lol I kinda can figure out where a trend starts but enver where it ends. really appreciate your help by the way.

[THT]

1 hour ago, Karma said:

Wow ok I am hitting the books - thanks by the way I am also going through your other thread but its so in depth. Lol I kinda can figure out where a trend starts but enver where it ends. really appreciate your help by the way.

No probs - happy to help

No-one knows when a trend ends before its clear, hence the need for trailing stops and the like

All you need to be is RIGHT some of the time, not all of the time