News and Trade Ideas (Indices)

[MongiIG]

Indices set for a meaty drop

The DAX and Nasdaq form bearish reversal patterns while gains have stalled for the FTSE 100.

Source: Bloomberg

IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 03 February 2022 

FTSE 100 struggles at resistance

The FTSE 100 has briefly risen above last week’s high at 7597 to 7613 on Wednesday, just short of the early January high at 7634.5 before consolidating.

A slip and daily chart close below yesterday’s low at 7559 would create an Evening Star formation on the daily candlestick chart which would constitute a bearish reversal signal. It could lead to another down leg back towards the January low at 7226.

Minor support on the way down comes in at Monday’s 7535 inside day high as well as at the mid-January low at 7507. Only a tumble through Friday’s inside day low at 7418 would put Thursday’s low at 7321 back on the cards.

A rise above the recent highs at 7613 to 7634.5 is needed for the pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690 to come back into play.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 forms Dark Cloud Cover bearish reversal signal

The DAX 40 futures contract has been rejected by the 55-day simple moving average (SMA), today coming in at 15695, and the 15728 to 15800 resistance area. This is made up of several daily highs seen since late October and the 10 January low.

A Dark Cloud Cover formation would be confirmed in the case of a daily close today below yesterday’s low at 15532, in which case a drop all the way back down to the January low at 14839 may ensue.

On the way down the one-month uptrend line can be seen at 15387 and Monday’s low at 15339 which, together with the 25 January high at 15265, offers potential support.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 forms Bearish Engulfing pattern

The Nasdaq formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart around the 200-day SMA, the confirmation of which will be a slip and daily chart close below yesterday’s low at 14769.

If the pattern is indeed confirmed, the July and October lows at 14452 to 14383 will be back in the picture and may offer short-term support. If the 14383 October low were to be fallen through on a daily chart closing basis, the February and April peaks at 14078 to 13906 would be next in line.

Resistance now comes in between the 200-day SMA at 15063, the 10 January low at 15164, the two-month tentative downtrend line at 15216 and, of course, yesterday’s high at 15276.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 holds its ground but DAX and S&P 500 struggle

Indices have seen their forward momentum disappear, with the DAX in particular under heavy pressure.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 04 February 2022 

FTSE 100

Gains have stalled below 7600 once again, putting further short-term pressure on the FTSE 100.

The price has drifted through trendline support from the late January low, but a more short-term bearish view would need a drop below 7500 to put the price below Thursday’s low.

Below this the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) comes into view. A more bullish view requires a move back above 7600.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

A full-blown reversal is in play, with the price having given back most of the gains made since late January. Additional declines bring the 15,000 support zone into view.

The lower high at 15,730 provides a further bearish view, and it will require a move back above this level to provide further upside and reverse the potential bearish crossover developing in stochastics.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

The index rebounded from the lows of the session yesterday, but has slipped back once again in early trading. A

potential lower high appears to be in the works, although confirmation would be needed with a drop below 4452, the 200-day SMA.

Buyers will need to see a recovery back above 4550 to reverse the short-term bearish view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices hover above last week’s lows

Indices begin week above support ahead of another batch of quarterly earnings results and US inflation data.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 07 February 2022 

FTSE 100 stuck below resistance at 7613 to 7634.5

The FTSE 100 ended last week on a downer, having failed at 7613 on Wednesday, just short of the early January high at 7634.5.

A slip and daily chart close below Friday’s low at 7496 would probably kick-start another down leg towards the January low at 7226.  Minor support on the way down is seen at the 7461 December high and further support between the 6 and 10 January lows at 7422 to 7402, as well as along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7385.

Only a rise above the recent highs at 7613 to 7634.5 would put the pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 hovers above fragile support at 15,060 to 15,026

The futures contract has found interim support at the top of its 15,060 to 15,026 support area on Friday.

It contains the 26 November, 20 December and 27 January lows. Failure there would lead to the next lower band of support seen between the November and January lows at 14,917 to 14,840 being next in line.

Until US equity markets open the contract is likely to remain above Friday’s low at 15,057 but will probably encounter resistance at the 15,291 to 15,302 21 December and 3 February lows.

Overall downside pressure should be maintained while the DAX stays below Friday’s high at 15,502.

Source: ProRealTime

NASDAQ 100 recovers from 14,453 to 14,384 support area

Last week the Nasdaq formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and then fell all the way to 14,376 before recovering. This as investors await another batch of quarterly earnings results this week, as well as the latest US inflation data on Thursday.

Resistance above the 14,783 to 14,818 27 July and 20 September 2021 lows can be spotted along the 200-day SMA and the 2022 downtrend line at 15,071 and 15,078.

Friday’s low was formed at 14,376, close to support sitting between the July and October 2021 troughs at 14,453 to 14,384. If slid through on a daily chart closing basis, the February and April peaks at 14,078 to 13,906 would be in the limelight.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 returns to January high as Dax and S&P 500 struggle

While strong oil prices continue to bolster the FTSE 100, other indices are finding it harder to make upside progress. Videos

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 February 2022 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 has returned to its January highs, and, bolstered by heavyweights like BP and Shell, seems set for further gains.

Unlike US markets that continue to struggle, the FTSE has recovered the losses of late January and has returned to the 7620 highs. A breakout to the upside targets 7680.

Selling last week paused at 7500, so a more bearish view requires a reversal back below this level to open up the potential for a short-term retreat.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

Friday’s losses stalled in the 15,000 zone that has held as support since the early summer of 2021.

Now a small recovery has seen the index push back above 15,300, moving above yesterday’s highs and thus breaking the trend of the previous four sessions.

A continued move higher brings 15,720 into view.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Losses have been stemmed for now just above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4455. So long as this holds and daily stochastics continue to rise then a cautiously bullish view prevails for the S&P 500.

We look for a bounce back towards 4550 that will revive the late January rally, and which will also put the price back above trendline resistance from the January high just above 4800.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

European Indices recover on the back of Wall Street

The FTSE 100 nears its January high, the DAX continues its gradual ascent and the Dow approaches its early February peak.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 February 2022 

FTSE 100 flirts with January high

The FTSE 100 is making further headway in its bid to overcome its 7634.5 January high. Above it lurk the pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690.

Support is seen along the one-month uptrend line at 7561 and at the early January 7529 high.

Only a currently unexpected slip and daily chart close below Friday’s low at 7496 would have bearish implications and would provoke a sell-off back towards the January low at 7226. This looks like the less likely scenario, though, and instead further upside is expected to be seen.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX gradually recovers

The Daily Financial Bet (DFB) has found interim support at the top of its 15,060 to 15,026 support area on Friday (26 November, 20 December and 27 January lows) and has been steadily rising since.

Overall, though, downside pressure should retain the upper hand while the DAX stays below Friday’s high at 15,502. Further resistance comes in between the two-month downtrend line and the 27 January high at 15,584 to 15,601.

A fall through the 15,060 to 15,026 support region would target the next lower band of support at 14,917 to 14,840, made up of the November and January lows.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow nears early February high at 35,711

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s recovery from around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 35,064 has taken it back up towards its early February high at 35,711. If bettered, the mid-November, 13 and 16 December highs at 36,109 to 36,320 would represent the next technical upside target area.

Today potential slips may find support at Monday’s ‘Doji’ high at 35,329 and along the accelerated support line at 35,230. More significant support can be found between the 200-day SMA and the current February low at 35,064 to 34,793.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices on a strong footing ahead of US CPI data

The FTSE 100 is trading at 2-year highs while the DAX and Nasdaq approach important resistance areas.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 10 February 2022 

FTSE 100 trades at 2-year highs

The FTSE 100’s advance above its 7634.5 January high has practically taken it back to its pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690. These may offer short-term resistance this week.

Slightly further up the July 2019 peak can be spotted at 7730.

Support remains to be seen between the 27 January and 2 February highs and along the one-month uptrend line at 7613 to 7591 with further minor support being found at the early January 7529 high.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX continues to rise but nears resistance at 15,573 to 15,632

The DAX 40 has had a good day yesterday and heaved itself back over the minor psychological 15,500 mark with the 15,573 to 15,632 resistance zone about to be hit. It is comprised of the two-month downtrend line, late January highs as well as 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

Further resistance sits at the 15,739 early February high, a rise above which would put the January peak at 16,288 back in the frame. Only a currently unexpected fall through the 15,060 to 15,026 support region, consisting of the 26 November, 20 December and 27 January lows, would target the next lower band of support at 14,917 to 14,840, made up of the November and January lows.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 looks bid ahead of US CPI data

On Tuesday the Nasdaq formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart and has since risen back to the 200-day SMA at 15,090 which capped ahead of the release of US CPI data for January, likely to come in at 40-year highs.

Another strong inflation reading later today could put pressure on equities once more as worries about tighter US monetary policy re-emerges. Technically speaking the Nasdaq remains under pressure while the resistance zone made up of the 10 January low and the early February high at 15,165 to 15,276 forms a barrier.

Were this resistance area to be overcome, however, it would bring about a fresh bullish outlook with the 55-day SMA at 15,602 being in focus.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices under pressure following US CPI surge

US markets fell sharply yesterday as CPI in the US hit a new high, and European markets are under pressure as well.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 11 February 2022 

FTSE 100

Despite its strength in recent weeks compared to the US, the FTSE 100 may not be able to escape unscathed if a broader risk-off move takes hold.

Having finally reached 6690 the index fell back in the overnight session, with losses slowing as it approached the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) at 7851.

Short-term support at 7565 and then 7500 may be tested in due course. A deeper decline will see the 50-day SMA at 7444 come into play as possible support.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

Despite yesterday’s reversal the DAX may yet be able to find some support around 15,270. This might provide the foundation for an intraday higher low.

However, the daily chart’s reversal yesterday from 15,600 looks set to put further pressure on the index. Buyers will need to recoup yesterday’s losses and then push the index on above 15,600 to reverse the developing bearish view.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

The lower high that many expected seems to be here, as the price gives back almost all the gains of the previous two days.

A battle for the 200-day SMA at 4461 now begins, the buyers having held the index above this level earlier in the month. A drop below the 200-day moving average (MA) brings the 4300 zone of support into view.

As with the DAX, it will need a reversal back above yesterday’s highs to reverse the growing bearish view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices drop on threat of war in Ukraine

The FTSE 100 comes off its 2-year highs while the DAX and Nasdaq approach important support.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 14 February 2022

FTSE 100 retreats on Ukraine tensions

Last week’s 7688 two-year high for the FTSE 100, made right within its pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690, has been followed by a retracement lower after the US and Europe warned of a possible Russian invasion in Ukraine.

From a technical perspective the current weakness comes as no surprise since last week’s high has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily RSI, pointing to a loss of upside momentum.

Now that the one-month uptrend line at 7641 has been slipped through, the early January 7529 high is being targeted, together with the 4 February low at 7496. If fallen through, the technical picture would become more bearish with the January low and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7226 to 7203 being back in the frame.

Only a currently less likely rally above the 7690 January 2020 high would engage the July 2019 peak at 7730.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX drops back towards range support at 15,057 to 15,026

Last week the DAX 40 failed close to the late January highs as well as 55- and 200-day SMA at 15,615 and has since slid back to its recent range lows at 15,057 to 15,026.

These contain the 26 November, 20 December and 27 January lows and a slip through these would target the next lower band of support at 14,917 to 14,840, made up of the November and January lows.

The latter support zone is key for the medium-term trend and failure there could trigger a bear market. Minor resistance sits at last Thursday’s Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formation low at 15,355.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 falling back towards 13,721 January low on risk of war in Ukraine

Thursday’s Bearish Engulfing pattern on the Nasdaq daily candlestick chart has been followed by a swift fall through the July and October lows at 14,452 to 14,383 with the January trough at 13,721 being back in the spotlight.

Failure there would confirm a major top formation and have medium-term bearish implications with the May low at 12,923 being back on the cards. Minor resistance above the 14,383 to 14,452 zone comes in at the 4 February low at 14,480.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Ukraine tensions put indices under pressure

Indices fell yesterday as markets reacted to rising Ukraine tensions, but are attempting to bounce in early trading.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 February 2022 

FTSE 100

After falling below recent trendline support, the FTSE 100 has seen losses accelerate, bringing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) into play, currently 7454.

Below this the 7300 zone of support, where the index managed to stabilise in late January, comes into view, and then from there the January low at 7226 becomes the next target.

Given the broader risk-off atmosphere the index may struggle to make headway, but a recovery above 7600 would clearly shift the view back towards a bullish one.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

Ukraine tensions saw the index go right back to 14,840 support yesterday, where the index has bounced repeatedly over the past ten months.

But with stochastics turning lower below the 0 level the momentum outlook appears to favour further declines in the near-term. These would see 14,840 tested once more, and below this there is a relative absence of support, which could result in a move back towards 14,190 and the highs of January/February 2021.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Losses here have stabilised for the time being, as the S&P 500 rebounds back above 4400.

From here buyers need to reclaim the 4460 area to reverse the bearish view more effectively, and bring about a scenario where a retest of 4580 is a possibility.

Further declines back below 4370 open up the path to another test of 4300 and the lows of late January.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices continue to recover on the back of easing tensions in Ukraine

The FTSE 100, DAX and Nasdaq have bounced off support and are likely to rise further amid the de-escalation between Russia and the West.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 February 2022 

FTSE 100 bounces back on easing of Ukraine tensions

After three consecutive days of declines the FTSE 100 is rising once more as Russia removes some of its troops from the Ukrainian border.

Today’s advance above yesterday’s high put the January high at 7634 back on the cards, as well as the current February and pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks seen between 7680 and 7690. Further up beckons the July 2019 peak at 7730.

Upside pressure is to retain the upper hand while the one-month uptrend line at 7507 and, more importantly, the current February lows at 7496 to 7483 underpin. Only if this support zone were to be fallen through, would the technical picture become bearish again with the January low and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7226 to 7209 being eyed in such a scenario.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX rallies on Russia-Ukraine conflict de-escalation

On Monday the DAX 40 bounced right off its 14,840 January low on de-escalating geopolitical tensions, having declined the previous three days in a row on the threat of Russia invading Ukraine.

The late January highs as well as 55- and 200-day SMAs at 15,615 to 15,632 will be targeted on a rise above the 2022 downtrend line at 15,514.

Next up is the 15,739 early February high, a rise above which would put the January peak at 16,288 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 heading back up again on Russian invasion trade reversal

Monday’s Doji pattern on the daily candlestick chart and subsequent rise above the formation on easing tensions between Russia and the West puts the 2022 downtrend line at 14,383 back in sight.

Once overcome the early and mid-February highs as well as the 200-day SMA at 15,078 to 15,276 will be back in play.

Since the decline from the current February high can be sub-divided into three distinct waves, it is deemed to be corrective in nature, meaning that the long-term uptrend may finally resume its ascent in the coming weeks.

Only failure at the 13,721 January trough would point to a major top formation and have medium-term bearish implications with the May low at 12,923 then being eyed.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices trade slightly lower, awaiting developments from Eastern Europe

The FTSE 100, DAX and Dow range trade in the wake of ongoing tensions between Russia and the West.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 February 2022 

FTSE 100 remains sidelined below its 7688 February high

The FTSE 100's consolidation below its current February high at 7688 but above its two-month support line at 7527 is ongoing while awaiting developments on the Russia-Ukraine front.

Only a rise above the January and yesterday’s highs at 7633 to 7634 would shift the market’s attention back to its February high at 7688, made right between the pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690. Further up lies the July 2019 peak at 7730.

Upside pressure is to retain the upper hand while the two-month support line at 7527 and, more importantly, the current February lows at 7496 to 7483 underpin.

Only if this support zone were to be slipped through, would the technical picture become bearish with the January low and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7226 to 7212 being thrust back into the picture.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX slightly lower amid ongoing geopolitical tensions

Yesterday the DAX 40 once again failed at its 2022 downtrend line and then formed a Doji on the daily candlestick chart, denoting indecision amongst investors as the Russian situation remains unclear.

Sideways trading below yesterday’s high at 15,544 is thus likely to be witnessed today. If 15,544 were to be bettered, however, the late January highs as well as 55- and 200-day SMAs at 15,615 to 15,633 would be in focus.

Next up is the 15,739 early February high, a rise above which would put the January peak at 16,288 back on the cards. Major support continues to be seen between the October to February lows at 14,917 to 14,814.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow consolidates around the 200-day SMA amid geopolitical worries

These last few days the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been capped by the 200-day SMA at 35,080 while remaining above the two-month support line at 34,530. Potential slips may stabilise along the support line or at Monday’s current February low at 34,302.

A rise above yesterday’s high at 35,142 is needed for the average to head back up towards the 55-day SMA and two-month resistance line at 35,481 to 35,650.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices recover slightly on hopes of Russia-Ukraine de-escalation

The FTSE 100, DAX and Dow continue to be sidelined short-term whilst closely following developments between Russia and the West.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 February 2022 

FTSE 100 holds support amid easing of Ukraine tensions

The FTSE 100 revisited but has so far managed to hold above the recent February lows at 7496 to 7483 on the back of US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, agreeing to meet with Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, next week, raising hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine standoff.

Only a rise above the January- and this week’s high at 7633 to 7634 would have clear bullish implications, however, and target the February high at 7688. It sits between the pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690.

Further up lies the July 2019 peak at 7730. If the current February trough at 7482 were to be slipped through, however, the bears would be back in control, eyeing the January low and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7226 to 7214.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX recovers on easing of tensions in Eastern Europe

The DAX 40 is likely to range trade further between its 2022 downtrend line at 15,498 and this year’s low to date at 14,840 while awaiting developments from Russia, Ukraine and the West.

An advance above this week’s high at 15,544 is needed for the late January highs as well as 55- and 200-day SMAs at 15,614 to 15,633 to be back in the limelight.

Next up is the 15,739 early February high, a rise above which would put the January peak at 16,288 on the map. Major support continues to be seen between the October to February lows at 14,917 to 14,814.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow subdued below its one-month downtrend line

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s rejection by the 200-day SMA at 35,080 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, led to it slipping to yesterday’s low at 34,247, all the while staying below the one-month resistance line at 34,770.

Failure at 34,247 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-February advance at 34,185 would put the December low at 33,952 back in the spotlight.

A rise above this week’s high at 35,142 is needed for the average to head back up towards the 55-day SMA and two-month resistance line at 35,473 to 35,650.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices pressured as geopolitical tensions mount

Stock markets have dropped as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 February 2022 

FTSE 100

Hopes of a rebound have been frustrated here, with the FTSE 100 falling back below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7475 and heading back to the 7400 level. This now brings the 100-day SMA at 7353 into view, followed up by horizontal support at 7226, the low from January.

Sellers appear to be firmly in control here, with a bounce back above 7500 required to provide some kind of relief to the buyers and signal that a higher low has been formed.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

The prospect of a further deterioration in relations between Russia and Germany hit the DAX hard, causing it to fall to its lowest level in almost a year.

The big zone of support around 15,000 has been lost, and now we look to the previous zone of resistance around 14,150 from the first months of 2021 as a possible support area.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Futures yesterday fell below 4300, taking out the support zone around this level that has endured since September. January’s low at 4221 now comes into view, and a move below this creates another lower low.

As yet there is little sign of a bounce for the S&P 500, and for this to occur in any durable fashion we would need to see a recovery back above 4400.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices recoup losses on fragile sentiment

The FTSE 100, DAX, and Dow edge higher as investors continue to grapple with escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 February 2022 

FTSE 100 edges up on well-received corporate earnings

Yesterday the FTSE 100 revisited but then bounced right off its December-to-February uptrend line at 7360 and then formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart on well-received corporate earnings. This bullish reversal took place despite the escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis.

From a technical perspective it could be argued that an Elliott wave A-B-C correction has been formed which would imply that the index is heading back up towards its current February high at 7688 as long as this week’s low at 7360 isn’t slipped through.

The FTSE100 is aiming for the one-month resistance line at 7564 and the January and last week’s highs at 7633 to 7634. These levels will need to be bettered for the bulls to fully regain control. In this case the contract would target the February high at 7688 which sits between the pre-pandemic December 2019 and January 2020 peaks at 7680 to 7690. Further up lies the July 2019 peak at 7730. Minor support comes in along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7463.

If the current February trough at 7360 were to be fallen through, the bears would be back in charge again, with the January low and 200-SMA at 7226 to 7221 being in focus.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX cautiously recoups some recent losses

The DAX 40 is trying to edge higher, having dropped overnight to a near one-year low at 14,306 on increased fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It now faces the previous major 14,840 to 14,917 support zone, which because of inverse polarity, should now act as resistance and cap today. It contains several monthly lows going back to May 2021.

A fall through 14,306 would engage the January and February 2021 highs at 14,135 to 14,194.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow remains above 33,146 January low despite deepening crisis in Ukraine

Re-opening from a holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was caught up with Monday’s global decline in equities but managed to stay above its 33,146 January low.

While this remains the case, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-February advance at 34,185 and the one-month downtrend line at 34,240 may be revisited, together with the mid-February low at 34,303.

Failure at the 33,146 low would put the June 2021 low at 33,061 on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices spiralling lower as Russia invades Ukraine

The FTSE 100, DAX, and S&P 500 have dropped out of bed in light of Russia mounting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 February 2022 

FTSE 100 falls to 200-day SMA as Russia invades Ukraine

As Russia invades Ukraine and president Putin declares war on his Russian neighbour, the FTSE 100 took a beating but less so than other European indices such as the DAX, for example.

This has to do with the fact that the FTSE 100 is commodity, and especially oil, heavy with the likes of BP and Shell outperforming. The index is thus benefitting from the rise in commodity prices on the back of the Russian invasion.

The FTSE 100 nonetheless dropped sharply to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7223 which so far offers support, just as it did in September, November and December. Were it to be slipped through, however, the late December low at 7100 would be targeted next.

Minor resistance seen at the 22 February low at 7360 is expected to cap any potential short-term bounce today, together with the breached three-month uptrend line at 7375.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX drops like a stone on full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine

The DAX 40 fell out of bed as Russia mounts a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, earlier dropping by as much as -5% to the pre-pandemic February 2020 high and 50% retracement of the October 2020 to November 2021 advance at 13,831 to 13,810 which offered interim support.

Slightly further down the January 2020 high and February 2021 low can be found at 13,644 to 13,641. Minor resistance sits at the 22 February low at 14,305 and major resistance at 14,840 to 14,917. This resistance area is made up of several monthly lows going back to May 2021.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 spirals towards May 2021 low at 4030 on Russian invasion of Ukraine

The S&P 500 is on track to tumble to the June 2021 low at 4130 and may continue its slide to the 4030 May 2021 low as Russia declares war on Ukraine.

Around the minor psychological 4000 mark the index may stabilise, however, since the February and mid-March 2021 highs were also made in this vicinity.

A potential short-term bounce is likely to encounter resistance at the 4214 January low. Together with the July 2021 trough at 4224 it is likely to cap the upside today.

Source: ProRealTime

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Ukraine tensions keep indices under pressure

While stock markets were able to rebound overnight, a continued rally still looks unlikely.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 February 2022 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 fell back to 7200 and below yesterday, but managed to hold above it and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7223.

The continued defence of this level could lead to a more durable base being formed, leaving the uptrend intact.

Further losses below 7200 would open the way to 7100 and then 7000, the lows from November and December last year.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

Here however the index remains under pressure, and while it finished the day off the lows more losses overnight mean that yesterday’s low could be tested once again.

Below this the 13,600 level from February last year comes into view. A more bullish view would require a move back above 14,500 to indicate that at least a short-term low is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

While the index tested a nine-month low yesterday, it then rebounded from the low of the day. However gains overnight stalled around 4275, and that may put further declines into view.

A recovery above 4300 would help to build a more short-term bullish view, but with the price still below the 200-day SMA the outlook remains firmly mixed.

Source: ProRealTime

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Indices volatile as Ukraine’s situation remains fraught

The FTSE 100, DAX and S&P have given back some of Friday’s strong gains amid increased Russian sanctions.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 February 2022 

FTSE 100 retests but bounces off 200-day SMA

The FTSE 100 initially slid back to, but then bounced off, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7227 overnight, awaiting a meeting between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators. The index is also benefitting from the rise in commodity prices on the back of the Russian invasion.

However, the FTSE 100 is likely to remain volatile, as indicated by the imposition of sanctions and the closure of European airspace to Russian flights amid heavy ongoing fighting in Ukraine.

The one-month resistance line at 7380 has been retested on Friday and today is back within reach but first the 55-day SMA at 7469 will have to be overcome.

Friday’s high at 7564 would need to be exceeded, for the technical picture to become bullish.

A drop through today’s low at 7219 and, more importantly, last week’s low at 7177 would lead to the 20 December low at 7100 being targeted, as well as the psychological 7000 mark and the November low at 6972.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX tries to hold above last week’s low amid increased Russian sanctions

The DAX 40 tanked overnight as Russian president, Vladimir Putin, put the country's nuclear deterrent forces on high alert as Western nations stepped up sanctions, excluded major Russian banks from the international SWIFT payments system, and announced that they would close their airspace to Russian aircraft.

The index is trying to hold above last week’s 13,795 low, made within the pre-pandemic February 2020 high and 50% retracement of the October 2020 to November 2021 advance at 13,831 to 13,810 which offers support.

Slightly further down the January 2020 high and February 2021 low can be found at 13,644 to 13,641. Minor resistance sits at last Tuesday’s 14,305 low and also at Friday’s 14,678 high.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 mixed in midst of war in Ukraine

Following Friday’s surge in the S&P 500 the index has given back some of its gains over the weekend in the wake of fresh sanctions on Russia and fierce fighting in Ukraine.

The index is today likely to trade between its January low at 4214 and Friday’s high at 4384. A rise above the latter level would be bullish and target the 2022 resistance line at 4483, whereas a fall through the 4214 low would probably lead to a tumble to the June 2021 low at 4130 and even the 4030 May 2021 low taking place.

Around the minor psychological 4000 mark the index may stabilise, however, since the February and mid-March 2021 highs were also made in its vicinity.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100 and S&P 500 look for gains but DAX struggles as Ukraine worries hit the index

A modest recovery still looks to be in progress for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500, but the DAX remains under pressure.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 01 March 2022 

FTSE 100

After rebounding on Friday the FTSE 100 recovered from a drop back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday, and has pushed back towards the 50-day SMA (7494) today. Additional gains above 7485 would put the price above trendline resistance from the February peak.

A failure to break above trendline resistance brings a drop back towards 7370 or even down towards the 200-day SMA (7228) back into play.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

There is little sign of any optimism here, with the price dropping further this morning after Monday’s indecisive session. While it bounced on Friday along with other markets, and finished Monday off the lows, it has failed to make headway above 14,400.

This move lower in early trading brings 14,000 and then 13,826 into view once again. The previous three days have seen buyers defend 14,000, so if this holds and the price can recover 14,600 a more cautiously bullish short-term view may result.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Gains have stalled below 4400 for now, although given the scale of the move from Thursday’s low some consolidation is hardly surprising. A move back below 4250 would likely hand the sellers the upper hand once again.

Conversely, if the index holds above 4300 then a push above 4400 brings the 200-day SMA at 4473 into view.

Source: ProRealTime

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CAC and DAX in bear market amid inflationary fears

The CAC and DAX are now trading in bear market territory and the FTSE 100 is at 11-month lows as inflation fears are being stoked by energy supply concerns.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 07 March 2022 

FTSE 100 at 11-month lows amid energy supply concerns

The FTSE 100 slipped through its key 6828 to 6808 support area overnight, which has held the index in May, July and September 2021, and dropped to an 11-month low at 6764 amid increasing fears of an inflationary spiral being triggered by soaring energy prices.

Failure at 6764 would open the way for the June 2020 low at 6515.

Minor resistance is to be found at the 6946 October low and also at the 6972 November low as well as around the psychological 7000 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 in freefall after US reportedly discusses ban on Russian crude oil

The DAX 40 last week slid all the way to the 200-week moving average at 13,114 amidst the intensifying war in Ukraine and rapidly rising energy prices.

Following reports that the U.S. was discussing a ban on Russian crude oil the index gapped lower this morning and is now trading in bear market territory with a drop of -20% having been seen from its January highs.

Having said that, the gap at 12,927 to 12,2961 may be closed today or this week with the 200-week moving average at 13,114 representing a resistance line.

Possible downside targets are the April 2019 high at 12,466 and the September 2021 low at 12,338.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC 40 enters bear market territory on rising inflation fears

The CAC 40 is in freefall and gapped lower earlier this morning with it entering bear market territory with a -20% drop from its January peak amid rising inflationary fears due to soaring energy prices on the back of the war in Ukraine.

The January 2020 low at 5764 represents the next downside target ahead of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 5649.

Minor resistance is found at today’s 6004 to 6029 gap.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 stage a bounce after heavy losses

Indices have managed to recover somewhat in early trading, bouncing from near-term support.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 March 2022

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 has succeeded in bouncing from 6874 support, after briefly moving below 6800 yesterday.

A bounce from here needs to clear 7037 to break Monday’s highs, and would then look to challenge the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7230 and the area of previous support around 7230.

A break back below 6800 opens the way to additional downside.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

After testing a 16-month low yesterday, following on from last week’s waterfall drop, a rebound has taken place that has brought the price back above 13,000.

If the 12,408 level holds then perhaps a short-term bounce at least can materialise, clawing back losses.

Sellers will want to see a break below 12,408 that can open the path to 11,700.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

So far the index has avoided dropping below 4128, and if this continues to hold some form of base may yet be created.

However, daily momentum indicators have rolled over, and if this bounce is reversed then 4128 and lower come back into play.

4400 remains a near-term target, and could pose a problem to a bounce, having acted as solid resistance in the last week of February.

Source: ProRealTime

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European indices benefit from slight risk-on sentiment

The CAC, DAX and FTSE 100 are all displaying short-term bullish technical signs ahead of this week’s ECB meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 March 2022 

FTSE 100 stabilises as traders mull over geopolitical situation

The FTSE 100 has recovered as slight risk-on sentiment enters the fray in Europe.

Technically speaking the fact that Monday’s Doji on the daily candlestick chart was followed by a bullish candle, and that the contract managed to close above the minor psychological 7,000 mark, indicates a short-term bullish sentiment.

Provided that the current bullish stance can be maintained, the January and February lows as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), making up key resistance at 7,177 to 7,230, may be reached but are expected to cap, at least today.

Minor support is seen around the psychological 7,000 mark and also at the 6,972 to 6,946 October and November lows.

Only currently unexpected failure at the 6,764 current March low would open the way for the June 2020 low at 6515 to be reached.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 forms short-term bottom

Having declined by around 20% from its February high, the DAX seems to be benefitting from some short covering as traders assess the ongoing war in Ukraine and economic stand-off between Russia and the West.

Yesterday’s Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart points to at least a short-term bottom having been formed at this week’s 12,432 low with the steep two-month downtrend line at 13,695 being targeted, together with the 24 February low at 13,795. There the current bounce may stall, however.

Support below the minor 13,000 region is seen at the 12,432 recent low, a currently unexpected drop through which would engage the September 2021 low at 12,338.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC 40 looks technically short-term bullish

The CAC 40 managed to stabilise at 5,755 early this week as traders mull over the consequences of rising energy and commodity prices on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy, ahead of Thursday’s meeting.

Yesterday’s Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart points to a short-term recovery, at the very least, over the coming days with the early March low at 6,312 representing a possible upside target, as do the two-month downtrend line and the September and October lows at 6,378 to 6,421.

Slips should find support around the minor psychological 6,000 mark today.

Source: ProRealTime

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European indices rally as Fed and BoE set to hike rates

The FTSE 100 and DAX have opened higher but the Nasdaq remains subdued ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings which should lead to a 25 basis point rate hike each.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 14 March 2022

FTSE 100’s recovery ongoing ahead of this week’s BoE rate decision

Last week’s rally in the FTSE 100 may continue on the back of mostly positive sentiment in Asia today with all eyes being riveted on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), both of which are set to begin hiking rates by 25 basis points.

Meanwhile investors closely monitor the situation in Ukraine.

A rise above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and last week’s high at 7,232 to 7,264 would engage the 27 January low at 7,321. If also bettered, the 55-day SMA and 2022 downtrend line at 7,441 would be next in line. Further up sits the 25 February high at 7,564 which should act as major resistance.

Minor support is seen at Friday’s 7,053 low and also between last Monday’s Doji high of 7,031 and the psychological 7,000 mark. Below it sit the 6,972 to 6,946 October and November lows.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally continues on back of risk-on sentiment

The DAX 40 followed most Asian equity markets higher as investors expect the Fed to begin hiking rates by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday while keeping a close eye on developments on the Russia and Ukraine crisis.

Last week’s high at 14,102 as well as the January, February and early March 2021 highs at 14,134 to 14,198 are in focus but together create a band of resistance. If overcome, the 22 February low at 14,306 is being targeted as well as the 25 February high at 14,678 which together form another resistance area.

Minor support comes in at Friday’s 13,277 trough with further potential support being found around the 7 March high at 13,151 and also around the minor psychological 13,000 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasday 100 still hovers above key support

The Nasdaq 100 continues to range trade above its February and March lows at 13,106 to 13,033 ahead of the Fed's widely anticipated 25 basis point hike in its target fed funds rate which is due to be seen in the middle of the week.

While the index remains below Friday’s high at 13,862, downward pressure should retain the upper hand. Failure at the 13,033 February low would push the May 2021 low at 12,923 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 to 2022 advance at 12,880 to the fore.

Further down the August 2020 high and the March 2021 low can be seen at 12,466 to 12,212. The early March high at 14,395 would need to be exceeded for a bullish picture to emerge with the 15,131 to 15,165 resistance zone then being targeted. It consists of the 200-day SMA and a confluence of daily highs and lows seen since mid-January and should act as strong resistance.

Source: ProRealTime

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Indices fall back once more, highlighting the possibility of renewed declines

After stalling in recent sessions indices have begun to turn lower, with China Covid concerns now joining high oil prices and the Ukraine war as reasons for investors to be cautious.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 March 2022

FTSE 100

While it is early on in the session, the FTSE 100 is coming under heavy pressure.

The area around 7200/7230 has acted as resistance over the previous three sessions, and as a result a possible reversal could be in play. This could bring the lows down towards 6900 and 6800 into view.

For now, the buyers have to breach 7230 and clear the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as well, in order to suggest a bigger move higher could develop.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

So far the losses here are more contained, but the price has failed to push on above 14,130 and the highs from the end of last week. Should we see a drop back below 13,345, a more solidly bearish view will begin to emerge.

A reversal here would signal a new lower high, possibly opening the path to a retest of the March lows. Buyers would need to see the price exceed 14,170 to suggest a move to the upside has resumed.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Three days of declines have brought the index back towards the 4127 area that marked the low twice over the past month.

This needs to be closely-watched as a break of this level strengthens the bearish view considerably. 4057 and then the psychologically-important 4000 level come into view in the event of a broader move lower.

If 4127 does hold then the buyers need to take out the lower highs at 4300 and 4400 in order to begin building a more bullish view.

Source: ProRealTime

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European indices recover on back of strong rebound in Asia ahead of Fed rate announcement

FTSE 100 and DAX 40 benefit from strong rally after several days of losses in Hang Seng and other Asian indices on hopes of Chinese stimulus package.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 March 2022 

FTSE 100 recovery rally endures ahead of Wednesday’s BoE rate decision

Last week’s FTSE 100 rally has resumed on the back of stronger US equity markets with today’s 6pm GMT US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate announcement and FOMC statement being highly anticipated by market participants while they monitor if and how Russia will pay a $117 million debt amid ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Today’s rise above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and last week’s high at 7,233 to 7,264 is good news for the bulls with the 27 January low at 7,321 about to be reached. If overcome, the 55-day SMA and 2022 downtrend line at 7,418 to 7,444 will be targeted. Further up sits the 25 February high at 7,564 which should act as major resistance.

Minor support can be found between yesterday and Friday’s lows at 7,075 to 7,053 and also between last Monday’s Doji high of 7,031 and the psychological 7,000 mark. Below it sit the 6,972 to 6,946 October and November lows.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally continues amid risk-on sentiment

The DAX 40 followed Asian equity indices higher as hopes of an economic stimulus package in China prompted a swift recovery after several days of heavy losses.

This comes after a rebound on Wall Street with eyes set on today’s Fed rate announcement which is expected to kick off a post-pandemic rate hiking cycle with a 25 basis points rise.

The 22 February low at 14,306 and the 25 February high at 14,678, which together form a resistance zone, are currently being eyed amid ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Further up lies a key multi-year resistance area between 14,840 and 14,917.

Minor support below the accelerated uptrend line at 13,810 comes in at Friday’s 13,277 low with further potential support being found around the 7 March high at 13,151 and also around the minor psychological 13,000 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

Hang Seng recovers by around +10% on hopes of Chinese stimulus package

The Hang Seng’s sharp drop by around -25% from its February high at 25,113 paused at yesterday’s 18,132 low on news that China may provide an economic stimulus package to help its economy as it suffers from the spread of Covid-19 and countrywide lockdowns.

What is interesting from a technical perspective is that yesterday’s low was made marginally above key support at 18,083 to 18,003, consisting of the 2012 and 2016 lows.

While this major support zone underpins, a recovery towards Thursday’s high at 21,089 seems to be underway with the two-month downtrend line at 20,260 representing an obstacle today.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

European indices flat to higher ahead of BoE rate announcement

The FTSE 100 and DAX 40 are taking a breather while Asian indices continue to rally, having rallied strongly on hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace accord and Chinese stimulus package yesterday.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 March 2022

The FTSE 100 remains bid ahead of today’s BoE rate decision

Last week’s FTSE 100 rally is ongoing ahead of today’s widely anticipated Bank of England (BoE) 25 basis point hike, the third in a row for the central bank.

Yesterday’s rise above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and last week’s high at 7,234 to 7,264 has taken it to the 27 January low at 7,321 around which it is consolidating short-term.

Above yesterday’s high at 7,335 lurk the 2022 downtrend line and 55-day SMA at 7,407 to 7,433. Further up sits the 25 February high at 7,564 which should act as major resistance.

Support below the 200-day SMA at 7,235 can be spotted between Tuesday and Friday’s lows at 7,075 to 7,053 and also between last Monday’s Doji high of 7,031 and the psychological 7,000 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally approaches key resistance amid risk-on sentiment

The DAX 40 followed US and Asian equity indices higher as hopes of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, an economic stimulus package in China and a ¼ point rate hike in the US fed funds rate proved to be bullish for indices globally.

The 25 February high at 14,678 is now in focus, ahead of a key multi-year resistance area which sits between 14,840 and 14,917. Because of inverse polarity, this area is to now act as strong resistance.

Minor support lies between last Friday’s high at 14,102 and the one-month uptrend line at 14,040.

Source: ProRealTime

Hang Seng recovers by another 6% on hopes of Chinese stimulus package

The Hang Seng’s sharp drop by around -25% from its February high at 25,113 ended at Tuesday’s 18,132 low on news that China may provide an economic stimulus package to help its economy as it suffers from the spread of Covid-19 and countrywide lockdowns.

This low was made marginally above key support at 18,083 to 18,003, consisting of the 2012 and 2016 lows, and has been followed by a rally of over 15% in the past couple of days alone.

The break through the two-month downtrend line at 20,000, which now represents support with the 9 March low at 20,101, targets the 55-day SMA at 23,329.

On the way there resistance may be encountered at the 22,708 January low.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices make headway once more

After an indecisive start to the week yesterday, indices are looking to resume their move higher.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 March 2022 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 has continued to rally, moving back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in early trading today after an indecisive day yesterday.

This tends to reinforce the bullish view, and should bring the February highs around 7700 back into view on a medium-term basis.

After the surge since early March some consolidation would still not be too surprising, while sellers will have to wait for a reversal back below 7350 to suggest a short-term pullback is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

The DAX drifted back down yesterday, but has stabilised in early trading, as it consolidates following the bounce from 12,500.

It is still at risk of creating a lower high, but sustained price action below 13,800 would be needed to suggest that a new leg lower is underway.

In the short-term the index targets 14,500 to the upside, with a rally above here marking a fresh move higher, bringing the 50-day SMA at 14,828 into view.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

An indecisive day yesterday saw the S&P 500 stall again below the 200-day SMA (4480). However, some tentative gains in the early part of the session may help to revive a bullish view.

Above the 200-day SMA, potential resistance at 4490 and 4590 come into view. A recovery of the latter would mark a fresh bullish development and help to suggest that a medium-term recovery is in progress.

Sellers will need to push the price back below 4400 to suggest that a new move to the downside is beginning.

Source: ProRealTime

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Recovery in indices continues with technology stocks leading the way

The FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 continue their ascents, boosted by stronger US and Asian equity markets, especially in the technology sector.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 March 2022 

FTSE 100 continues to rise despite 30-year high in UK CPI

The recovery in the FTSE 100 100 continues despite UK inflation increasing to a higher than expected 30-year high at 6.2% in February, up from 5.5% in January. The year-on-year retail price index came in as expected at 8.2% compared to 7.8% a month earlier.

The 25 February high at 7,564 remains in focus but is likely to act as resistance, if reached today. Once overcome, the way will be open for the February peak at 7,688.

Slips should find support along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,436 and further down at the one-month support line at 7,385 as well as at the breached 2022 downtrend line at 7,364.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 benefits from overnight rise in US and Asian stocks

The DAX 40 continues its advance, having so far risen by over 15% from its early March low, on the back of a rebound in US and Asian stocks overnight with the war in Ukraine taking a back seat in investors’ minds.

The 25 February high at 14,678 remains in focus, ahead of a key multi-year resistance area which sits between 14,840 and 14,917 and goes back to the May 2021. Because of inverse polarity, this area is likely to act as strong resistance.

Minor support below yesterday’s low at 14,233 can be spotted between Friday’s low and the previous Friday’s high at 14,106 to 14,102 with further support coming in at the 9 March 13,995 high and 16 March 13,927 low.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 leaves bottoming pattern to the upside

US stock futures continue to rally after last week reporting some of their biggest weekly gains since November 2020 with the Nasdaq 100 leaving a double bottom chart formation to the upside and heading towards the 200-day SMA, mid-January low and February highs at 15,133 to 15,164.

Friday’s daily and weekly chart close above the early March high at 14,395 means that a double bottom has been formed, the theoretical upside target of which could take the index all the way to 18,545.

This upside target consists of the distance between the current March low and the early March high, projected higher from the latter. It is valid as long as no slip below the 12,945 current March low is seen.

Support now comes in between the 55-day SMA at 14,430 and the mid-point of the double bottom chart formation at 14,395. Further minor support can be spotted at the 14,040 mid-February low.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Small gains seen in European indices after yesterday’s pullback

The FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow snapped back yesterday, but so far remain above support, as oil prices continue to rise and stoke inflation fears.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 March 2022 

FTSE 100 supported by 55-day SMA

The recovery in the FTSE 100 resumes after yesterday’s pullback to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,436 which acted as support, together with the March uptrend line, ahead of tomorrow’s UK GfK consumer confidence survey for March.

The 25 February high at 7,564 remains in focus but is likely to act as resistance, if reached today. Once bettered, the February peak at 7,688 should be next in line.

Below the 55-day SMA, one-month uptrend line and yesterday’s low at 7,436 to 7,419, the breached 2022 downtrend line - now support line - can be spotted at 7,352.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 inches up after yesterday’s market retreat

Yesterday the DAX 40 came off its 14,497 to 14,584 resistance area as investors grapple with rising oil prices and the prospect of larger rate hikes than previously anticipated.

While the index stays above Friday’s low and the previous Friday’s high at 14,106 to 14,102, however, upside pressure should be maintained with the 25 February high at 14,678 remaining in sight, ahead of a key multi-year resistance zone which sits between 14,840 and 14,917 and goes back to May 2021.

Because of inverse polarity, this area is likely to act as strong resistance. A fall through the 14,106 to 14,102 support zone would engage the 9 March 13,995 high and also the 16 March 13,927 low.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow’s bearish reversal points to short-term retracement lower

Following yesterday’s Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily Dow Jones Industrials Average candlestick chart, due to bonds having suffered unprecedented losses globally and another surge in the oil price stoking inflation fears, a short-term retracement lower seems probable.

The late February and early March highs at 34,181to 33,979 may be reached over the coming days but should offer good support. Further down sits the December low at 33,952.

A rise above Tuesday’s 34,899 high and ideally above the 200-day SMA at 34,989 is needed for the bulls to regain control. In this case the February peak at 35,862 would be back in the frame.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX edge back but US futures point towards more gains

European markets have struggled in early trading, but US futures look more solid, building on recent gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 March 2022 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 continues to consolidate, stuck below 7500.

However, it remains above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7426 and seems poised for an additional move higher, bringing the February highs just below 7700 into view.

An alternative, bearish, view would require a reversal back below the 100-day SMA (7374).

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

A small recovery yesterday still leaves the index stuck below 14500, although the support zone at 14,130 continues to hold.

A break below this level could mark a lower high and put the index on a lower course.

If the 14,130 level continues to hold as support then a move back towards 14,500 could be contemplated, reviving the uptrend.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Thursday’s bounce recouped the losses of Wednesday, and points towards further upside for the S&P 500, with the early February peak at 4600 back in view.

Beyond this the record highs are once again in prospect. Buyers have recovered the initiative, and it would take a drop back below 4450 to suggest some near-term weakness.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices sidelined ahead of busy week for data

The FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow await US consumer confidence, core PCE price index and employment data.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 March 2022 

The FTSE 100 little changed from Friday

The recovery in the FTSE 100 continues despite UK inflation increasing to a higher than expected 30-year high at 6.2% in February last week.

A rise above last week’s high at 7,522 would engage the 25 February peak at 7,564 but this is likely to act as resistance, if reached today.  Once overcome, the way will be open for the February high at 7,688.

Slips should find support along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,436 and further down at the 23 March low at 7,419.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 stalls on lack of catalyst

The DAX 40 continues to trade sideways whilst awaiting April German Gfk consumer confidence data on Tuesday, expected at -14.6 versus -8.1 in the previous month.

The 25 February high at 14,678 remains in focus, ahead of a key multi-year resistance area which sits between 14,840 and 14,917 and goes back to May 2021. Because of inverse polarity, this area is likely to act as strong resistance.

Support below last week’s low at 14,187 can be spotted between Friday’s low and the previous Friday’s high at 14,106 to 14,102 with further support seen at the 9 March 13,995 high and 16 March 13,927 low.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow capped by 200-day SMA

The Dow Jones Industrials Average last week nearly reached the 200-day SMA at 35,003 but remains below it ahead of this week’s US consumer confidence, core PCE price index and employment data.

The average is likely to remain volatile amid heavy ongoing fighting in Ukraine and would need to exceed last week’s high at 34,946 and the 200-day SMA at 35,003 in order to continue its ascent towards its 35,862 February high.

Slips should find support along the breached 2022 downtrend line at 34,515 and the 55-day SMA at 34,441. Only failure at last week’s low at 34,323 would put the bears back in the driving seat.

Source: ProRealTime