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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq breaking higher as bulls return to the fold

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq are on the rise, as improved market sentiment helps drive stocks higher.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022 

FTSE 100 rises back into key intraday resistance zone

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a relatively upbeat start to the week, with the index pushing higher after a decline into the 6763 support level (March low).

This rebound has taken price up into the confluence of trendline and swing-high resistance, with the ability to break up through this point bringing greater confidence of a protracted period of upside. Should such a move come to fruition, we would be looking at a potential wider retracement of the sell-off from 7515.

For now, keep a close eye out for a break higher from here to signal the beginning of a more positive period for this index.

To the downside, a break below 6763 would be required to signal the beginning of another major leg lower.

UKX-4-hours-2022_10_04-07h54.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX breaks through resistance as the bulls regain influence

The DAX has been fighting back this week, with the gains seen yesterday bringing the index up through the first swing-high of 12138.

The subsequent resistance level of 12322 has been broken overnight, with price now rising into the confluence of the 27 September high and July low of 12432.

As such, we are building a more positive picture for the near-term, with a rise through 12432 bringing greater confidence that we will see the index retrace the wider sell-off from 13571.

That coincides with the wider descending trendline that has been respected over the course of the year thus far.

DAX-4-hours-2022_10_04-08h09.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq on the rise from key support

The Nasdaq has been on the rise since the Monday gap lower, with the initial move below 11036 being swiftly recovered. That 11036 level represents the bottom established in June, with yesterday’s early decline bringing about a two-year low.

However, we are now utilising this low as a potential area of support to push higher, with price having moved up through the 11298 swing-high.

We have another notable swing-high at 11548 worth watching, with a break above that point signalling the beginning of a wider rebound for this index.

To the downside, a move back below the recent low of 10887 would be required to bring about a renewed bearish short-term view for the index.

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_10_04-03h23.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 on track for further gains

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid hope of slowing tightening path after sharp drop in US job openings.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 October 2022 

FTSE 100 two-day rally has further to go

The FTSE 100 has rallied by over 4% from its September low in the wake of stronger US and Asian equity markets on the back of hopes of a slowing tightening path by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after softer US economic data.

The break through its September-to-October downtrend line has put the early September low at 7,131 on the map which, together with the 8 September low at 7,174, is likely to act as short-term resistance.

After a swift and large two-day rally as the one which has been seen so far, it is usual for equity indices to take a breather, at least in the short-term.

In case of the FTSE 100 the June and July lows at 7,006 to 6,966 may thus be revisited but are expected to offer solid support.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 stalls after 6% two-day rally

The DAX 40’s swift ascent on hopes of a slowdown in the speed and size of global rate hikes following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) unexpected 25 basis point rate rise, half of what traders expected, on Tuesday is likely to pause in the short-term.

Following the contract’s technical bear trap – in which it dipped below its key March to July support at 12,386 to 12,432, only to then rally by over 6% so far this week and close above this area – a slowdown in recent bullish momentum is likely to be witnessed on Wednesday.

Any potential retracement back towards the 12,432 to 12,386 support area may represent a buying opportunity for short-term investors as the index likely has further to run.

Upside targets are the 23 June low at 12,839, followed by the mid-June low and 20 September high at 12,940 to 12,944. The next higher 26 July low, 2 September high and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 13,021 to 13,066 may also be reached in the days to come.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 makes fresh gains

A sharp drop in job openings in the United States on Tuesday was interpreted by market participants as pointing towards weakness in the employment market of the kind that the Fed had suggested would cause them to rethink their plan for further sharp rate increases.

The S&P 500 thus built on its previous day’s sharp rally and managed to rise and close above its 28 September high at 3,737. This is technically significant since it confirms that at the very least a minor bottom has now been formed with its upside target coming in at the early September low and 20 September high at 3,884 to 3,918.

In case of a minor retracement lower taking shape this week, the July low and 6 September high at 3,737 to 3,720 should offer good support.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq regain lost ground, but wider bearish trend remains

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq regain ground, but near-term upside looks unlikely to last long.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 06 October 2022 

FTSE 100 continues to recover, as market mood improves

The FTSE 100 has been enjoying a period of upside that has provided a reprieve from the incessant selling that dominated much of September.

While risks remain, easing concerns around the UK mini-budget and stability in the European banking system have provided an uplift that could yet continue for the time being.

The wider trend does highlight that we experience periods of protracted upside, with the descending trendline highlighting exactly that. While we are unlikely to have seen the end of this sell-off, the current rise looks to represent a retracement of the sell-off from 7515.

With that in mind, the 7235-7342 Fibonacci resistance zone looks a potential area where price could move into and reverse. Wherever we do see price reverse lower, we will be looking for an end to the intraday higher lows currently in play.

Thus, the bearish outlook returns if we move back below the 6976 swing low established yesterday.

UKX-4-hours-2022_10_06-07h44.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX moves into upward retracement mode

The DAX has similarly moved into a more positive phase, with price reversing some of the losses seen over recent weeks.

The trend of lower highs on the daily chart thus comes back into play here, with the current move expected to represent another retracement before the index turns lower once more.

Exactly where this rebound reverses lower remains to be seen, but it is worthwhile noting the existence of the 61.8% (12898) and 76.4% (13155) Fibonacci levels up ahead.

To the downside, a move back below the latest intraday swing-low around 12450 would provide a tentative sign that the bears are already coming back into the fold.

DAX-4-hours-2022_10_06-07h52.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq regaining lost ground

The Nasdaq has also been on the rise, with the push through 11548 resistance bringing an end to the short-term downtrend playing out of late.

With that in mind, we are now looking at the wider trend, with the current rally looking to provide a retracement of the sell-off from 12903.

Quite whether we manage to move into trendline or SMA resistance remains to be seen, but it certainly does highlight the potential for a more protracted near-term rebound before the bears come back into play. With that in mind, watch out for potential near-term upside, as price retraces the 12903 sell-off.

To the downside, a break below 11305 would bring greater confidence that the recovery phase is over, and the bears are returning to prominence.

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_10_06-03h12.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 stall ahead of US jobless data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of US Non-Farm Payroll data which may influence the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy going forward.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 07 October 2022 

FTSE 100 rally taking a breather

The FTSE 100 is retracing lower ahead of the widely anticipated US non-farm payroll (NFP) data which may influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy going forward.

The index has so far rallied by over 4% from its September low on the back of hopes of a slowing tightening path by the Fed after softer US economic data earlier in the week but ran out of steam slightly above the 7,100 mark.

The June low at 6,966 may be revisited. Below it sits further minor support in the 6,945 to 6,934 region, made up of the 26,27 September lows and the 3 October high.

A bullish reversal and rise above this week’s high at 7,104 would likely engage the early September low at 7,131 as well as the 8 September low at 7,174.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 slips ahead of US unemployment data

The DAX 40’s swift ascent on hopes of a slowdown in the speed and size of global rate hikes following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) lower than expected 25 basis point rate rise on Tuesday is taking a breather ahead of Friday’s US unemployment data.

Following the contract’s technical bear trap, in which it dipped below its key March to July support at 12,386 to 12,432, only to then rally by over 7% to 12,704 before slightly coming off again, led it to revisit the 12,386 July low. Between this level and the 3 October high at 12,275 the DAX 40 may find support, however. If not, a slide towards the 30 September high at 12,138 may be witnessed.

Immediate resistance comes in at the 12,596 early September low above which lie the 23 June low at 12,839, followed by the mid-June low and 20 September high at 12,940 to 12,944.

The next higher 26 July low, 2 September high and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 13,021 to 13,066 may still be reached in the days and weeks to come, provided that no drop below the September low at 11,810 ensues.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 rally stalls ahead of US Non-Farm Payroll data

The Nasdaq 100’s near 7% rally from its September low has given way to some profit taking ahead of Friday’s US jobless data which should give clues as to the direction the Fed will take with regards to its monetary policy.

Throughout this week various Fed officials have continued to pour cold water on the idea of a pivot, suggesting that there is little likelihood of a change in policy due to the persistence of high inflation.

This has led to the Nasdaq 100 giving back some of its recent strong gains and it slipping towards the 11,306 low seen on Wednesday.

A rise above this week’s 11,668 high would put the early September low at 11,918 on the cards.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices weaker following strong US jobs report

Stock markets are heading lower again as hopes of a turn in Fed policy are dashed following the latest non-farm payrolls report.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 10 October 2022 

FTSE 100 targets September low

The reversal in stocks that began in the second half of last week has resulted in the index dropping back below 7000.

This fresh bearish move brings the 30 September low at 6780 back into view, which marked an area of support in March as well. Should the index fall below this then the next target is 6730.

It would require a reversal back above 7000 and then on above last week’s highs at 7100 to suggest that the buyers are in charge once again.

FTSE_101022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX under pressure again

The index has created a lower high, faltering at 12,700 last week and heading sharply lower on Thursday and Friday.

As with the FTSE 100, this index now targets last week’s lows around 11,850 as an initial area of potential support. Below this, 11,700 and then 11,265, the latter being the October 2020 low, become the next levels to watch.

A short-term bullish view would require a move back above 12,400, to the challenge last week’s highs, but overall the bearish view remains firmly in place.

DAX_101022.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 heads back to recent lows

Friday’s jobs report killed off any hopes of a Fed pivot towards more dovish monetary policy, and sent the S&P 500 reeling.

The index gave back the gains from the beginning of last week, and is heading back to the lows of the week at 3580. A move below this marks a new low for the 2022 downtrend and also puts the price below the September 2020 high, intensifying the bearish view.

The next major level to watch would be 3397, the pre-pandemic high. Bulls would need a move back above 3800 to suggest a short-term rebound is in progress.

SPX_101022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 try to stabilise ahead of US inflation data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of US Fed minutes and PPI data.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 October 2022 

FTSE 100 drop slows ahead of early October low

Despite UK unemployment data falling to 3.5%, its lowest level since 1974, the FTSE 100 continued its slide to Tuesday’s 6,850 low before stabilising ahead of Wednesday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data which marks a warm-up for Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure.

UK GDP fell by 0.3% in August, while the July figure was revised down to 0.1% and the three-month figure also came in at -0.3%. This data did not seem to deter the FTSE 100 from trying to recover some of its recent losses and head back up towards its July low and the September-to-October downtrend line at 7,006. It may stall againn there, though.

A fall through this week’s low at 6,850 would put the early October low at 6,783 back on the plate.

12102022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 stabilises ahead of US inflation data

The DAX 40’s recent swift descent has taken it to Tuesday’s low at 12,097 with it holding above this low ahead of Wednesday’s US PPI data and Fed minutes as well as Thursday's CPI figures which will be closely watched by market participants.

Immediate resistance comes in at the March to July lows at 12,386 to 12,432 which, together with the September-to-October downtrend line at 12,498, is likely to cap this week.

Failure at this week’s low at 12,097 could lead to the early October low at 11,810 being back in sight.

12102022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 trades at 2-year lows ahead of US PPI and CPI data

The Nasdaq 100 continues its descent and is fast approaching its September 2020 low at 10,677 ahead of Wednesday’s Fed minutes and US PPI data releases.

For this to be the case, a drop through Tuesday’s low at 10,715 needs to be seen. Further down the July 2020 low can be spotted at 10,318.

Minor resistance above the 11,039 early October low can be found at the 23 September low at 11,168 and then along the six-week downtrend line at 11,360.

12102022NASDAQ-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Bearish outlook for FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 remains firmly in place

The FTSE 100 is pushing lower in early trading, while the DAX and S&P 500 are quieter ahead of US CPI this afternoon.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 October 2022 

FTSE 100 on the back foot

The index has opened with fresh losses this morning, and is now testing last week’s lows around 6780, with the 6874 low from March back in sight once again.

A drop below these levels then risks a move back towards 6500, which marks the lows from the first quarter (Q1) of 2021.

Having held up better in the first half of the year than many indices, the FTSE 100 is now joining in the general market rout.

A recovery back above 6880 might provide some short-term relief, but the overall picture remains firmly bearish.

FTSE_131022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX quiet for now

By contrast this index has managed to stem the selling over the past 24 hours, hovering just above the lows of the week.

Renewed moves to the downside and below 12,000 bring the September low around 11,800 into view once more. Below this the 11,704 and then 11,265 lows are the next targets to watch.

While the index has avoided any fresh downside over the past day or so, a bounce has yet to materialise, and even if it rallies back above 12,400 the overall downtrend remains firmly intact.

DAX_131022.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges below September 2020 high

The index is quiet ahead of the US CPI figure this afternoon, but it continues to test the water below the lows of last week.

Crucially, it has now pushed below the September 2020 high, and now looks set to push on towards the all-important 3397 pre-pandemic high. This would represent a decline of almost 30% from the record high seen at the end of 2020.

As with the DAX there is no sign of a bounce as yet, but a recovery above 3692 might suggest some short-term relief, while leaving the downtrend firmly intact.

SPX_131022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 stage dramatic U-turn

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 post higher-than-expected US CPI data, ahead of major US earnings on Friday.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 October 2022 

FTSE 100 stages dramatic recovery rally

Despite the UK government remaining under pressure and likely being forced into another u-turn with regards to its mini-budget tax cuts, and hotter-than-expected US inflation data which initially drove the FTSE 100 to levels last seen in March 2021, the index staged a dramatic bullish reversal late Thursday afternoon.

For technical analysts this came as no surprise since market sentiment had been extremely bearish over the last few weeks and days, short positions at very elevated levels and because positive divergence could be seen on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).

It occurs when the index makes a new price low compared to a previous low, but the indicator makes a higher low, thus not confirming the price low and more often than not leads to a bullish reversal in price.

The two-month downtrend line at 6,958 is thus in sight, a rise above which would put the early September low and the early October high at 7,104 to 7,131 back on the plate.

En route lies the minor psychological 7,000 mark. Slips should find minor support at Friday’s 6,882 intraday low and further support at the 28 to 29 September lows at 6,835 to 6,828.

14102022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 stages a bullish reversal despite hotter-than-expected US inflation data

The DAX 40’s initial reaction to the higher-than-expected US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data, like that of its European and US peers, was to drop before short covering amid extremely negative market sentiment, basically meaning that the market had run out of sellers short-term, and pushed the index higher.

Perhaps some market players took the fact that US inflation decreased marginally for the third month in a row to 8.2% over the 12 months to September, even if less than had been forecast, as a positive and started buying equities despite the still gloomy overall outlook.

After-all, most market players were positioned short into the CPI data and the remainder went short after the data was released, and when the DAX 40 began to rally, some traders needed to buy back their shorts, fuelling further buying which took the index above Wednesday’s highs and later in the day to above the September-to-October downtrend line, fuelling further technical buying.

The early October high at 12,704 is expected to be overcome today or next week with the early September and 20 September highs at 12,940 to 13,057 being next in line.

Slips should find support along the breached two-month downtrend line at 12,396.

14102022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 forms bullish reversal ahead of major US earnings

The S&P 500’s initial drop to levels last traded in November 2020, marginally below the 50% retracement of the pandemic bull market amid higher-than-expected US CPI data, was followed by a short-covering rally to above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 3,600 ahead of today’s earnings by JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, amongst others.

From a technical perspective the bullish reversal on the daily candlestick has further to run with the late September high at 3,737 representing the first upside target, followed by the 3,807 early October peak.

Good support can now be found between the 27 September to early October lows at 3,611 to 3,576.

14102022SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin week on a positive footing

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following higher-than-expected US CPI data, ahead of further US Q3 earnings.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 October 2022 

FTSE 100 remains bid ahead of new UK chancellor statement

The FTSE 100 begins the week on a positive footing, as market players expect the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, to push back on previously announced tax cuts and bring forward tax rises in order to try and calm financial markets and balance the books.

For technical analysts the current recovery comes as no surprise since market sentiment had been extremely bearish over the last few weeks, especially last week, and because short positions were at very elevated levels, increasing the risk of a squeeze being witnessed.

Positive divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) could also be made out and still points to higher levels likely being seen this week. Positive divergence occurs when the index makes a new price low compared to a previous low, but the indicator, in this case the RSI, makes a higher low, thus not confirming the price low and more often than not leading to a bullish reversal in price.

The two-month downtrend line at 6,953 is thus in sight, a rise above which would put the early September low and the early October high at 7,104 to 7,131 back in play. En route lie Thursday’s high at 6,978 and the minor psychological 7,000 mark.

Slips should find minor support at Friday’s 6,826 low and further support at the early October low at 6,783.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 remains bid ahead of German ZEW data out Tuesday

The DAX 40’s initial reaction to the higher-than-expected US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data Last week, like that of its European and US peers, was to drop before short covering amid extremely negative market sentiment propelled it to last week’s high at 12,680, only for disappointing US third quarter (Q3) earnings to push it back down again.

So far, the index remains bid above its breached two-month downtrend line at 12,346, though, with last week’s high at 12,680 in sight ahead of Tuesday’s German ZEW economic sentiment data release.

A rise above 12,680 would engage the 12,704 early October high, a daily chart close above it would mean that at least a medium-term bottom is in the process of being formed, targeting the early September and 20 September highs at 12,940 to 13,057.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 hovers above its recent lows as US earnings season continues

The S&P 500 dropped last week amid concerns about tighter monetary policy, weaker earnings and rising inflation, and the accompanying fears of a global recession.

It did manage to close the week off around the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 3,605, above which it is expected to open this week ahead of Monday’s BNY Mellon and Bank of America Q3 earnings.

From a technical perspective last week’s bullish reversal on the daily candlestick chart has further to run with last week’s high and the late September high at 3,721 to 3,737 representing the first upside target zone, followed by the 3,807 early October peak.

Good support can now be found between the 27 September to early October lows at 3,611 to 3,576.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow rebound, but bears look likely to return before long

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow are on the rise, but the current gains look likely to bring about a fresh selling opportunity for bears.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 October 2022 

FTSE 100 rebound continues, as price rises into 76.4% resistance

The FTSE 100 has continued its recovery phase, with sentiment improving thanks to a wider risk-on sentiment permeating throughout markets.

News that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue to support the gilts market highlights ongoing financial instability in the UK, although that intervention does help avoid concerns of an escalation into a wider issue.

Price has managed to rise through the Friday peak of 6978, bringing a higher low in the process. That points towards a potential retracement of the 7104 sell-off, with a rise through the 7104 resistance level required to bring about a wider rebound for the index.

Until that happens, there is a chance we see the index weaken from the 7010 level which represents the near-term 76.4% Fibonacci level.

UKX-4-hours-2022_10_18-08h21.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX pushes higher but wider trend raises risk of a bearish reversal

The DAX has managed to push through the 12704 resistance level this week, with price building on the early-October rebound that ultimately fell back into a 76.4% Fibonacci support level at 12020.

While a subsequent push higher looked likely, it is expected to take the form of a wider retracement of the 13570 sell-off. With that in mind, bears are expected to return to the fold soon enough.

As such, keep a close eye out for a potential bearish reversal, with the 61.8% (12898) and 76.4% (13155) Fibonacci resistance levels looking to provide key potential reversal points.

A break up through the 13570 level would be required to bring a wider bullish reversal signal for the index.

DAX-4-hours-2022_10_18-08h37.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow rises into trendline resistance

The Dow has managed to push into a fresh three-week high today, with price building on the rebound seen in early October. The rise through 30460 builds on that move, with price simultaneously pushing through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

From a wider perspective, this current rise looks to represent a retracement before we head lower once again. With that in mind, a reversal lower looks likely before long, where a rise through 32666 would be required to bring expectations of a wider recovery.

Until then, keep an eye out for a potential bearish reversal from either trendline or Fibonacci resistance.

DJI-4-hours-2022_10_18-03h49.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow are taking a breather

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow after higher-than-expected UK CPI data and ahead of further US Q3 earnings such as Tesla, IBM and Procter & Gamble.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 October 2022 

FTSE 100 softer on higher-than-expected UK inflation

The FTSE 100 is seen giving back some of its recent gains, as UK consumer price inflation (CPI) comes in at a higher-than-expected 10.1% year-on-year (YoY) and core inflation – excluding food and energy – at 6.5% versus an expected 6.3% in September with month-on-month (MoM) inflation running at 0.6%.

A slip back to Tuesday’s low, the 13 October high and the breached two-month downtrend line at 6,922 to 6,906 may thus be witnessed. Below this area support can be spotted at the 6,783 early October low.

Minor resistance can be found at the psychological 7,000 mark. A rise above Tuesday’s high at 7,018 would target the early September low and the early October high at 7,104 to 7,131.

19102022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 gives back some of its recent gains amid profit-taking

The DAX 40’s near 8% rally from last week’s low is taking a breather around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 12,904 ahead of Thursday’s September German Producer Price Index (PPI) data which is expected to come in at 1.5% month-on-month and 7.9% year-on-year.

It is normal for equity indices to consolidate in the short-term after a fast and strong rally such as the one seen since last week.

Slips should find support around the 12,704 early October high. Further support comes in at the early September trough at 12,596.

A rise above this morning’s overnight session high at 12,948 would engage the August-to-October resistance line and early September high at 13,026 to 13,057.

Further up the late August high can be spotted at 13,376 and the September peak at 13,570.

19102022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) is grappling with the August-to-October downtrend line, having attempted to break through it on Tuesday.

The index is seen losing short-term upside momentum below Tuesday’s 30,838 high as traders await Q3 earnings from the likes of Tesla, IBM and Procter & Gamble on Wednesday.

The 5 October high at 30,457 may be revisited in the meantime but may act as support. Further support can be found at the 30,132 mid-July low.

Were a rise to above Tuesday’s high at 30,838 to materialise, the 55-day SMA at 31,364 would be in focus.

19102022DJI-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices struggling as inflation fears return

The gains of the first half of the week are being eaten away as sellers return to markets.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 October 2022 

FTSE 100 struggles below 7000

The index has come under pressure again after gains earlier in the week, raising the prospect of a fresh push back to the 6800 level.

Gains this week faltered at 7000, and fresh declines below 6900 would seem to suggest that fresh losses are likely, heading back to the 6800 support zone and potentially lower.

A move back above 7000 is needed to suggest that the current range is resolving into a move back to the upside.

FTSE_201022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX reverses below the 50-day SMA

The index has dropped back below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), potentially creating a lower high. If this marks the beginning of a fresh turn lower, targeting 12,000 and lower, towards the September low at 11,800.

This week has seen a failure to break above trendline resistance from the August high, confirming the current downtrend. A more short-term bullish view would need the price to move back above 12,950, putting it back above trendline resistance.

Additional gains would target the 13,500 high.

DAX_201022.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 heads lower

Gains from earlier in the week are at risk of being wiped out, with the drop back below 3700 leading to a move back to 3570. Below this the price heads back towards 3500, the low of October where the index bounced sharply.

For the moment it looks like the bullish view is fading, so it would require a move back above 3760 and then on above 3800 to suggest that another medium-term ‘bear market rally’ is still in progress.

SPX_201022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow likely to reverse lower after recent rebound

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow start to show signs of another bearish turn, with recent rebound starting to fade.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 October 2022 

FTSE 100 rebound phase likely to fade into another decline

The FTSE 100 has been fading over the second half of this week, with the gains seen over Monday and Tuesday giving way to yet another bearish phase.

Coincidentally, that latest short-term rebound took price back into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level, with the bears likely to regain a hold from here on in.

Early morning data out of the UK highlighted further deterioration in the retail sales figure, while public sector net borrowing jumped to the second highest September since monthly records began.

As such, there is little reason to believe we are a turning point for this market, with a rise through 7104 required to bring a wider recovery phase into play.

Until that break occurs, another leg lower looks the most likely outcome from here.

UKX-Daily-2022_10_21-07h57.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX turning lower from 61.8% resistance

The DAX has similarly managed to regain a significant amount of ground over the early part of the week, with the index rising into a one-month high as a result. However, we can see a clear bearish trend in play that remains the dominant force.

The latest rebound took us back into the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at 12898, with price on the back foot since. A rise up through 13571 would be required to bring a wider bullish view into play.

Until such a break occurs, it is likely that the index finds itself on the back foot as the bears come back into play once again.

It is worthwhile noting that previous moves have price back into the zone between trendline and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance.

As such, even if we did see another short-term rebound, that would point towards a deeper retracement before the bears step in.

DAX-Daily-2022_10_21-08h06.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow struggling at the 50% retracement

The Dow has been struggling after a rally into the 50% resistance level at 30688.

The wider bearish trend remains in play unless price breaks through the 32666 resistance level. With the stochastic reversing out of the overbought territory, we can see how momentum is shifting in favour of the bears.

However, whether we do see a deeper rebound or not, it is likely that we will ultimately resolve with another turn lower before long.

DJI-Daily-2022_10_21-03h25.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 on the up for now

A short-term rebound in indices continues, although the overall downtrends are still firmly intact.

BG_data_chart_stocks_indices_index_24324Source: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 October 2022 

FTSE 100 heads back to 7000

The index has climbed from the lows of October, and is now testing the 7000 level from below.

Additional upside would likely see the index test the 7100 highs from the beginning of the month, while beyond this the 7150 lows of early September are the next target.

The overall downtrend, marked by recent lower highs and lower lows, is still intact, and so we would look at a reversal back below 6900 as a sign that a fresh move to the downside is underway, potentially targeting the October low at 6700.

FTSE_241022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rebound still in place

This index has rallied from the beginning of the month, in a counter-trend move that has seen it recoup around a thousand points.

However, the downtrend is even more firmly in place here than for the FTSE 100, with lower highs in August and September and the October lower low confirming the bearish trend.

For the moment the bounce is intact, and 13,530, the high from September, might be the next destination if the price can clear the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

A reversal back below 12,600 would bolster the view that another leg lower in the downtrend has begun, with the creation of a lower high sub-13,000 providing further confirmation of the bearish move.

Dax_241022.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges back to 3800

A bounce from the lows of October has carried the index back to 3800 and the 50-day SMA, although as with the other indices the downtrend is still in place.

Sellers will be on watch for a reversal back below 3700 that would mark a reassertion of the downtrend and a move towards 3600 and lower. The mid-October low at 3485 would also be a target in such a move.

Meanwhile, additional gains above 3800 would open the way to the 3900 area, which marked the lows in early September.

SPX_241022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow gain ground, but bears wait in the wings

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow continue to gain ground, but bears look likely to return before long.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 25 October 2022 

FTSE 100 rebound brings index into deep retracement

The FTSE 100 has struggled to maintain its upwards trajectory this week, with the wider gains seen throughout European and US markets bringing precious little upside for the index.

Often that could be a reflection of FX considerations, with a rally coming alongside a resurgent pound. Such a phenomenon would limit gains as those earning abroad see their revenues devalued.

However, that is not the case here, with the likes of GBP/USD and EUR/GBP actually moving against the pound which should benefit the FTSE 100.

Nevertheless, the fact that this index is struggling to replicate the gains seen elsewhere could be indicative of a lack of momentum, with price currently trading below the key 7104 swing-high.

A break through that level would signal a wider rebound coming into play for the index. Until that happens, there is a good chance we see the index turn lower to continue the trend of lower highs.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX continues its recovery, but bears wait in the wings

The DAX has managed to continue its upward trajectory of late, with price rising through last week’s high and return to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

Typically, we have seen the index reverse lower from the zone between the 100-SMA, and descending trendline. With that in mind, this current upward phase looks to represent a potential shorting opportunity for the index.

While we could see further short-term gains, that would simply provide us with a better price to look for a reversal. After-all, trendline and Fibonacci resistance still lies ahead.

As such, a bearish view holds for this index, with a push up through the 13571 swing-high required to negate that outlook.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow surges towards Fibonacci resistance

The Dow has been a major outperformer this week, with the index pushing sharply higher in stark contrast to the tentative gains seen in the FTSE 100.

Instead, we have seen a substantial push in a move that looks like a potential retracement of the 32666-28629 sell-off. With that in mind, it makes sense to look for a potential reversal from the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 31713.

A break through the 32666 level would weaken the bearish story, although it would ultimately take a break through 34285 to truly bring an end to this wider bearish trend.

Dow chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow rally expected to fade before long

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow continue their push higher, but the wider bearish trend does appear likely to kick in before long.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 26 October 2022 

FTSE 100 rally starts to fade

The FTSE 100 has started to show signs of weakness within a period of gains that saw the index move into a fresh two-week high on Monday.

However, the rising pound has hindered much of this rebound, with the index struggling to continue its upward trajectory. Yesterday’s bearish engulfing candlestick formation is an example of that, with price expected to turn lower as a result.

A break through the 7104 swing-high would signal a wider rebound coming into play.

Until then, watch for a potential bearish reversal from these levels. A break below 0.6861 would bring an intraday confirmation signal for the index.

UKX-Daily-2022_10_26-07h47.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX losing momentum as price rises into key resistance zone

The DAX has similarly started to lose momentum of late, with each daily candle seen this week bringing significantly less volatility than those seen last week.

That lack of follow through could signal an impending bearish reversal, with price having risen into a crucial resistance zone between the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and descending trendline.

While a break through trendline and 13571 resistance would bring about a bullish reversal of the long-term downtrend, it is likely that instead we will see this pair roll over from this current resistance zone.

DAX-Daily-2022_10_26-08h02.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow rallies into Fibonacci resistance

The Dow has managed to push up into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level, with the index enjoying a major boost over the course of October thus far. The size of this move appears to be more a reflection of the size of the decline in September.

Looking at upside resistance, there is a cluster of Fibonacci levels worth noting. Drawing these points from the two swing-highs of 32666 and 34285, it is worth watching for potential resistance around 31713, 32125, and 32950.

To the upside, the initial challenge is to break 32666 resistance, but it would take a move through 34285 to really signal an end to this wider bearish trend.

Until then, it looks likely we will see price roll over in the near future.

DJI-Daily-2022_10_26-03h27.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices show signs of caution after recent rebound

Indices have recovered from their October lows, but there is a growing sense that the rally might be on borrowed time.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 27 October 2022 

FTSE 100 edges back towards October high

The index continues to push higher, having reversed course on Wednesday and recouped the losses seen on Tuesday.

This leaves the counter-trend bounce intact, with a higher high and higher low established over the past 24-hours in the intraday timeframes. The price is now in the zone around 7070 that marked the highs at the beginning of October.

Additional gains will target the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently 7144, and then on towards the early September lows around 7160.

A reversal re-establishes the downtrend and brings 6800 into view once again as an initial downside target.

FTSE_271022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rebound still in play

The recovery from the September low has seen the index rebound by a very creditable 1100 points. But it is still firmly in lower high territory.

Having moved back above the 50- and then 100-day moving averages, the price has now set its sights on the September high at 13,500. A move above here would certainly suggest that the downtrend so far this year has been paused, although not entirely ended.

Meanwhile, sellers will watch for a reversal back below the 100-day SMA (currently 12,992) that might signal that a lower high has been created. This in turn might then prompt a move lower towards the lows of September.

DAX_271022.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 stumbles at 50-day moving average

The index continues to clamber higher, but the last two days have seen weakness in the after-market session that has seen the price falter repeatedly at the 50-day SMA (3844).

The index has yet to turn decisively lower, and fresh earnings may yet provide it with the power to push above the 50-day and also on above 3900.

Trendline resistance from the August high might also lie around 3900, providing another hurdle to further upward progress.

A reversal back below the early October high around 3805 would likely signal that another leg lower is underway, targeting 3600 and lower.

SPX_271022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Have the FTSE 100, DAX and Dow topped out after their recent bounce?

Indices have seen some selling pressure this morning in the wake of results from Apple and Amazon that reiterate how difficult Q4 is likely to be.

BG_data_chart_stocks_indices_index_24324Source: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 28 October 2022 

FTSE 100 drops back towards 7000

The index pushed on towards 7100 yesterday but has run out of momentum for the time being, faltering around the 7040 mark.

If the price rolls over from here then the 7040 area is confirmed as resistance, and might see additional downside that brings 6800 back into play.

Trendline support from early October might come into play towards 6950, with a move below this adding to the bearish view.

Buyers need to step up and push the price back towards 7100 in short order if they are to avoid ceding control to the sellers.

FTSE_281022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX retreats from 13,100

While the index has recovered from weakness in the past couple of weeks, there are heightened expectations of a fresh decline from current levels.

Admittedly a firm catalyst has yet to develop, and the index remains firmly up on the week, but many might view the drop back below 13,200 as a potential lower high that brings the 12,000 level and lower into view. This would mark a firm reassertion of the downtrend, and signal more losses to come.

Buyers need to recover the 13,200 level to reverse this growing bearish view and open the path to 13,500.

DAX_281022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow falters at 32,000

A push towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) - currently 32,559 - ran out of steam yesterday, with the price back below 32,000.

Like the other two indices, the downtrend here remains in place despite the bounce from the lows of October, with a lower high likely to reinvigorate both the downtrend and the sellers that drive it.

We would watch for signs that any intraday strength is being sold, with a drop below 31,500 likely to confirm the bearish view.

Dow_281022.pngSource: ProRealTime

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Indices cautious as busy week begins

Indices have begun the week with a mixed performance, displaying some nervousness ahead of major central bank meetings and the monthly US payrolls report.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 31 October 2022 

FTSE 100 holds above 7000

The index rallied throughout October, moving back above 7000, but can it keep going?

Previous gains in October saw the index falter below 7100, before heading back down to 6800. A reversal back below 7030 would likely signal a similar development, and might revive the current trading range. A continued fall below 6800 would provide further e evidence that the index is now in a downtrend.

A move back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - currently 7124 - and then on above 7160 would help to restore a more neutral view of the outlook.

FTSE_311022.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX back above 100-day SMA

October’s rally saw the index add around 1400 points, moving back above the 100-day SMA for the first time since mid-August.

Despite this impressive performance, the index is still below September’s peak around 13,500, and so a turn lower from here would create a lower high and risk a resumption of the downtrend. This might then suggest a move back to 12,000 and lower.

A move above 13,500 would then put the 200-day SMA (currently 13,672) into play, and then on towards 14,000 and the late August high.

DAX_311022.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges back from recent peak

The index leapt higher on Friday following better earnings from energy giants Exxon and Chevron. This has seen it clamber above the 100-day SMA for the first time since early September.

It has also been able to move above trendline resistance from the August highs, adding to the short-term bullish signs. But with the Fed meeting this week there will be some justifiable caution about pushing this rally much further in the short-term.

Additional gains target 4000, and then on to the 200-day SMA at 4096.

As with the DAX, the index is still at risk of creating a lower high, with a drop back below the 50-day SMA (currently 3825) would provide such a catalyst.

SPX_311022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow push higher, but questions remain given bearish trend

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow rally brings major upside resistance into view, but will the bulls remain in charge?

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 01 November 2022 

FTSE 100 breaks through resistance, completing double bottom

The FTSE 100 has managed to break up through the 7104 resistance level this week, with yesterday's decline in GBP/USD helping to lift the index in the process.

That break does bring about expectations of a fresh push higher, with the index now left with plenty of upside space to move into as it retraces the 7577-6704 decline. As such, further upside is a distinct possibility here, with the trajectory in the pound also key given the inverse correlation between the two.

It is worthwhile noting that the wider bearish trend remains intact though, with any near-term upside looking to represent a potential short-term pullback before the bears come back into play.

A rise up through 7577 is needed to negate that view.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX rebounds into major resistance zone

The DAX has also been on the rise of late, with the index pushing into a fresh six-week high on Friday.

With a very clear downtrend in play over the course of the year, it is worthwhile keeping a close eye out for whether we see that trend end via a move through 13570 resistance. Such a break would bring about an end to the pattern of lower highs, signalling the potential for a wider rebound in the DAX.

However, we are not quite there yet, with the index still finding itself in a key resistance zone between the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), descending trendline, and 200-SMA levels.

Thus, there is still a good chance that we see the index turn lower from here, continuing to bearish 2022 trend. However, should we see a move through 13570, it would set us up for a potential extended period of upside.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow rebounds into key Fibonacci level

The Dow enjoyed an October to remember for bulls, with the index rising 14% over the course of the month. However, that move has taken price up into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at 32969, with the 2022 downtrend coming into question as a result.

This week should bring plenty of volatility, with tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting coming ahead of Friday’s jobs report.

Nonetheless, this recent surge does look likely to fade soon enough, with central banks likely to reiterate that rates will remain elevated until inflation has been brought down.

As such, a bearish turn looks likely before long, we a rise through 34285 required to bring about a more positive wider view for the index.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow rebound towards major inflection points

FTSE, DAX, and Dow rebound coming into question as wider bearish trend brings doubts over longevity of recovery phase.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 02 November 2022 

FTSE 100 continues to push higher after double bottom

The FTSE 100 has been leading the push higher over the course of this week, with price following up the Monday break through 7105 resistance by moving up through the subsequent retracement area.

The wider trend does signal the potential for a deep rebound, bringing a possible move back towards trendline resistance. Alternately, we could be looking at a Fibonacci retracement, with the 61.8% (7244) and 76.4% (7371) levels providing two notable areas of resistance worth considering up ahead.

Ultimately, whether we see price reverse lower from the simple moving average (SMA), Fibonacci, or trendline resistance, the current rise does look like a short-term phenomenon before price reverses lower once again.

For the near-term that means there is also a strong possibility for further upside over the short-term.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX rises towards crucial resistance level

The DAX has enjoyed a substantial surge over the course of the past month, with October representing the best performing month since November 2020.

This takes price up towards the critical 13570, with this rise having already seen a move up through the descending trendline dating back from the beginning of the year.

A rise up through the 13570 swing-high would bring an end to the trend of lower highs established over the course of 2022 thus far. Until that level breaks, there is still a chance that we see price roll over to continue the wider bearish trend.

A move down through the 80 threshold on the stochastic oscillator is one key signal worth following as an indicator that the bears are back in charge.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow starts to fade from Fibonacci resistance

The Dow has been at the forefront of the recent stock market gains, with the index gaining 14% over the course of October. Nonetheless, this week has seen price start to take a turn lower, with the wider 76.4% Fibonacci level coming into play at 32970.

Today sees the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) come back to the fore, with their latest monetary policy decision providing volatility and directional bias going forward.

The wider trend does highlight the potential for another move lower from here, with a decline through the 80 threshold for the stochastic providing us with a notable signal that momentum has shifted back into the hands of the bears.

To the upside, a break through the 34285 level would be required to negate this ongoing bearish trend.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow head lower, as Fed warns of higher rates

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow start to reverse lower, with the Bank of England and US jobs report likely to further damage risk attitudes after a hawkish FOMC meeting.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 03 November 2022 

FTSE 100 reversing lower ahead of BoE

The FTSE 100 posted the worst day of losses since late-September yesterday, with price turning sharply lower from 100-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance.

The recent recovery phase does look to be on its last legs, with the bearish engulfing pattern completed yesterday bringing greater confidence of a downturn from here.

It is also worthwhile noting the break below 80 on the stochastic, which has previously provided timely sell signals over the course of 2022.

As such, bearish positions are favoured here, with the Bank of England (BoE) unlikely to provide much respite given expectations of the biggest rate hike since 1989.

A rise through the recent peak of 7221 would be required to bring expectations of a wider rebound.

UKX-Daily-2022_11_03-07h55.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rolling over after deep retracement

The DAX has seen substantial gains over the course of the past month, with price rising back towards the crucial 13571 resistance level.

While we have seen a push through trendline resistance, yesterday's decline finally provided us with a notable breakdown in price that could signal the beginning of the next bearish phase.

With the stochastic breaking out of overbought after a bearish engulfing pattern from the 76.4% Fibonacci level, the wider bearish trend looks to be back on the cards here.

A break up through Fibonacci and 13571 resistance would be required to negate that view.

DAX-Daily-2022_11_03-08h01.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow declines from Fibonacci level after FOMC meeting

The Dow has ramped up its recent decline, with yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting serving as a reminder that we are unlikely to see any true pivot in rates for some time yet.

In fact, Jerome Powell saw terminal rates as being higher than had previously been forecast. With a wider bearish trend in play, this renewed bearish outlook points towards a substantial decline from here. Keep an eye out for a break below the 80 threshold on the stochastic oscillator, which looks to be on the cards.

All in all, the bearish trend looks likely to return here, following a rise into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at 32970. A break back up through that recent high of 33,000 would be required to negate that bearish outlook.

DJI-Daily-2022_11_03-04h10.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow showing signs of topping out

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow show signs of potentially topping out, with all eyes turning to the US jobs report to wrap up a busy week.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 04 November 2022 

FTSE 100 rises to six-week high

The FTSE 100 has been a notable outperformer in a week that has seen equity markets find themselves under pressure.

A potential stochastic breakdown through the 80 threshold failed to materialise given yesterday’s pop. Thus, the sell signal holds off for now.

This index does stand out as a major outlier thanks to the influence of FX markets, with internationally-focused stocks benefitting from sharp declines in GBP/USD, and a rising EUR/GBP.

Coming off the back of a historic rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) and warnings of the longest recession in history, the pathway for the pound will be key for the FTSE 100.

While the index could rise further, this current rebound looks to be setting up a bearish reversal. Keep an eye out for a potential turn lower from the 61.8% to 76.4% Fibonacci zone (7244-7371).

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX showing signs of having topped out

The DAX is attempting to regain lost ground today, coming off the back of a period that has seen a bearish engulfing pattern signal the potential for a market top.

Coming at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level (13465), there is a good chance this current rise is short-term in nature as momentum starts to reverse. Notably, the stochastic oscillator has broken through the 80 threshold, bringing a sell signal that has been historically very timely in nature.

From a data perspective, further warning signs of a German contraction have been provided by a six-month low in factory orders, which fell 4% in the month of September alone.

As such, another bearish turn looks likely before long, with a move up through the 13570 required to raise questions over the validity of this view.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow reverses from Fibonacci resistance

The Dow has been heading sharply higher over the course of October, but that appears to have come to a swift end in November, with the index turning sharply lower this week.

With the stochastic falling below the 80 threshold as price reverses lower from the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level, there is a strong chance that we have topped out here.

Keep a close eye out for the jobs report this afternoon for any signs that the economy is on the turn. A bearish view holds unless price rises through the 34286 swing-high.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 holding on to recent gains

Indices rallied on Friday and have been able to hold on to their gains at the start of a new week.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 07 November 2022 

FTSE 100 holds around 200-day SMA

Friday’s surge saw the index bounce to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), returning to this level for the first time in over six weeks.

Some weakness has crept in, perhaps unsurprisingly, with the price dropping back below 7300. But it is too early to suggest that a lower high has been created, although that view would receive reinforcement with a further drop towards 7200, along with bearish crossovers in daily stochastics and MACD.

This might then risk the resumption of the downward move, towards 6800 and the October low.

FTSE_071122.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX surge remains intact

This index surged on Friday as well, recouping lost ground from the middle of the week. Further upward progress has not been seen in early trading, but as yet it is too early to suggest that a reversal may begin.

Additional downside towards 13,000 might yet find support. A drop below this level and then below trendline support from the September low might signal a deeper correction is at hand.

A move above 13,570 would put the price above the September high, leaving the 200-day SMA as potential resistance.

DAX_071122.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 steady after Friday bounce

Friday’s session saw the index recover slightly from the losses of the previous four sessions, but it remains below the 50-day SMA.

The retreat from the October high found support around 3700, and a small bounce carried the price back towards 3800. Additional gains above the 50-day SMA would bring 3900 back into view. From there the price might target the 3960 level.

Sellers will want to see a reversal below 3700 that then opens the way to 3630 and then even down towards the October low at 3500, over the course of time.

SPX_071122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow at risk of another bearish reversal

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow showing signs of a potential top after rallying into key resistance.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 November 2022 

FTSE 100 turning lower from Fibonacci resistance

The FTSE 100 has been on the rise over the course of the past month, with price hitting a fresh seven-week high on Friday. However, despite the US jobs report helping to lift sentiment, we are seeing grounds for pessimism here.

With a wider trend of lower highs remaining in play, the recent rise has taken us into a confluence of trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance here. We have been turning lower since, highlighting the potential for another bearish continuation for the index.

Keep an eye out for a break below the 80 threshold on the stochastic, with such a move providing a breakdown signal that has proven relatively reliable on previous occasions.

A break up through the 7577 level would be required to bring a more bullish outlook for the index.

UKX-Daily-2022_11_08-08h05.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX starts to weaken from SMA resistance

The DAX has been on the rise over the course of October, with price rising into the confluence of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and 13571 resistance level.

The wider bearish trend does highlight a strong possibility that we will see another bearish turn come back into play before long, with this current zone of resistance representing a potential area for that to occur.

A move below the 13019 swing-low would provide greater confidence in a bearish breakdown from here, negating the short-term trend of higher lows.

DAX-Daily-2022_11_08-08h10.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow rises back into the Fibonacci and trendline resistance

The Dow has seen a volatile week, with the index attempting to regain ground once again yesterday.

This recent volatility comes around a crucial zone of resistance, with a descending trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level coming into play. That Fibonacci level highlights how we are looking at a potential bearish trend resumption, with another turn lower likely from here.

That bearish outlook remains in play unless price breaks through the 34285 swing-high.

DJI-Daily-2022_11_08-03h22.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 await US mid-term election results and CPI

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of US mid-term election results and CPI data.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 November 2022 

FTSE 100 tries to regain recent losses

The FTSE 100 began the week by giving back some of its previous week’s strong gains as Chinese government officials re-iterated that the country would stick to its zero-Covid-19 policy over the weekend.

The FTSE 100 thus slipped to 7,243 on Tuesday before recovering towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,329 while awaiting the results of the US mid-term elections.

If overcome, the August-to-November downtrend line at 7,366 and last week’s peak at 7,378 would be back in sight. Further up beckon the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577, provided that the index stays above its last reaction low at Tuesday’s 7,243 on a daily chart closing basis. If unexpectedly slid through, the early November high at 7,221 and 8 September low at 7,174 would be in focus.

Further down lies good support at 7,131 to 7,104, made up of the August low, early October high and 55-day SMA.

09112022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to be driven higher

The DAX 40 has seen three consecutive daily higher closes while it remains within its two-month uptrend channel amid US mid-term elections and ahead of Thursday’s widely-awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October.

The index thus trades above the 200-day SMA at 13,602 which should act as short-term support and is gunning for the August peak at 13,976.

Minor support can be spotted between Tuesday’s low and the early November high at 13,489 to 13,445.

09112022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Three-day rally in S&P 500 may pause ahead of US CPI data

The S&P 500’s three-day rally has so far taken it to Tuesday’s high at 3,859, close to the August-to-November downtrend line at 3,872, amid US mid-term elections and as market players await Thursday’s October US CPI release.

In the short-term the index is revisiting the 55-day SMA at 3,817 with further minor support being found at the 3,807 early October high. Below it lies Tuesday’s low at 3,786 as well as the mid-October 3,765 high, which is expected to offer support, if reached at all.

A rise above Tuesday’s high at 3,589 would engage the August-to-November downtrend line at 3,872, a rise above which would put the early November high at 3,917 back on the cards.

09112022SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100 and DAX move higher while S&P 500 struggles

European indices have pushed higher while US markets are more hesitant ahead of this afternoon’s CPI figure.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 10 November 2022 

FTSE 100 remains above support

The index has edged back from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which it hit at the end of last week.

However, for now it shows little desire to head below 7250, with this area providing support in the short-term. A continued defence of this level might then provide a springboard for another move to the 200-day SMA, and then on to last week’s highs at 7378, and from there the early September high just below 7500.

A drop back below 7200 would provide a short-term bearish signal, suggesting a lower high has been created.

FTSE_101122.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX holds firm

After edging above the 200-day SMA on Tuesday, the price dropped back yesterday, but it has continued to hold above the 200-day SMA.

While the price has edged above the September high, it remains below the August peak. Thus a revival of the downtrend is still possible, and could see a drop towards 13,000. Below this a move towards the October lows could be envisaged.

Additional gains would target 14,000, extending the market rally further and suggesting that the downtrend for now has run its course.

DAX_101122.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 struggles ahead of CPI

US markets have failed to display the same strength in recent days as their European peers.

Wednesday saw the S&P 500 fall back below the 50-day SMA, and now a test of 3700 is looking likely. Below this the 3550 area comes into view as possible support.

It would require a move back above 3850 to suggest that the price has managed to recover its forward momentum, and this then might bring the 100-day SMA into play once again.

SPX_101122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq surge in the wake of the US CPI release

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq spike higher after yesterday’s declining CPI figures out of the US. Will this present the beginning of a protracted festive recovery period?

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 11 November 2022 

FTSE 100 breaks through key resistance zone after US CPI decline

The FTSE 100 has managed to push sharply higher in the wake of yesterday’s US CPI reading, with the steep decline across both headline and core inflation helping lift bullish sentiment throughout financial markets.

Calculating when the next period of downside comes into play is going to be the million dollar question. However, the size of any upside for the FTSE is likely to be lesser than that seen in the US, with the resurgent GBP/USD lessening the gains for the index.

Meanwhile, today’s -0.6% reading for the September GDP figure does highlight the ongoing fears of economic collapse over the coming year.

With that in mind, while short-term upside looks likely, such a move is expected to be less dramatic as we head back up into the next descending trendline.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX spikes up through key resistance to end downtrend

The DAX saw a more dramatic day of gains yesterday, with the index recovering over double the amount of ground as the FTSE 100.

With inflation turning sharply lower in the US, there is hope that we could be closer to a notable pivot in monetary policy. However, a number of things are worth considering. Firstly, US CPI now stands at 7.7%; someway off the 2% target. Also, eurozone inflation currently stands at 10.7%, showing precious few signs of slowing let alone reversing. We are seeing bullish sentiment take hold nonetheless, with that positive mindset likely to extend for the time being.

The break up through 13976 resistance brings an end to the 2022 trend of lower highs, signalling the expectation of a wider retracement of the entire 2022 move.

With that in mind, any move up through this trendline resistance would point towards a potential move into the likes of the 14584 and 15239.

A break through the 13019 swing-low would be required to bring the bears back into play.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq spikes into notable resistance level

The Nasdaq was expected to be the most volatile as the bearish trend kicks in once again, but that also applies to the reversal we have seen yesterday.

The 7% spike seen in this index yesterday has taken us up into the 11686 swing-high, with a move up through that level bringing about expectations of another push higher for the index.

The wider downtrend would therefore come into play, with the potential for a move into the likes of trendline, Fibonacci, and simple moving average (SMA) resistance.

For today, the question is whether we can push convincingly through 11686 to bring that next wider rebound into play.

Nasdaq chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking to build on recent gains

Indices enjoyed a solid week last week, and are looking to make further gains as hopes of cooling inflation support markets.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 14 November 2022 

FTSE 100 finds support at the 200-day MA

The index managed to push above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) once again on Thursday, before falling back on Friday.

However, it has found support around the 200-day SMA in early trading, providing hope that buyers may push the price back towards 7400 from here.

A reversal below 7300 might suggest another test of the 7240 level.

Continued price action above the 200-day SMA would mark a distinct change from the regime that has prevailed since June, and could indicate at least a short-term recovery that might bring 7500 and higher into view.

FTSE_141122.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX leaves 200-day MA far behind

‘Regime change’ is evident here too, with the index operating firmly above the 200-day SMA, above trendline resistance from the February high and at its highest level in five months.

Last week witnessed a decisive leap higher from the 200-day SMA, and now the index may enter a consolidation phase, perhaps edging back towards 14,000. But with trendlines broken and the 200-day SMA breached, we may see further buying on the dips.

Further gains target 14,600 and then 14,720, the highs from May and March respectively.

DAX_141122.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 holds firm

The index knocked on the door of 4000 on Friday, having surged on Thursday to a two-month high.

It is holding steady in early trading, and the 200-day SMA (currently 4065) is the first major target to watch to the upside. Beyond this the September high at 4155 is the next level to watch.

Sellers would likely view a move back below the 100-day SMA (currently 3906) as a sign that the bounce has run its course.

SPX_141122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq look set to head higher after recent push through resistance

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq look to head higher once again, with the recent break higher signalling the potential for a strong festive period.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 November 2022

FTSE 100 continues to gain ground after inflation boost

The FTSE 100 has continued its upward trajectory, as the index follows through on the bullish trend playing out over the course of the past six weeks.

Last week saw US inflation head lower, with risk assets gaining ground across the board. This is expected to continue until we see otherwise, with price rising back towards the descending trendline.

A move back down through the latest intraday swing-low of 7242 would bring about a fresh sell signal for the index. Until then, further gains look likely for the time being.

UKX-Daily-2022_11_15-08h46.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX pauses after surge through resistance

The DAX has been taking a breather since Thursday’s rally through 13976 resistance. That break brought an end to the long-term trend of lower highs that has dominated this year thus far.

However, with US inflation data having sparked a push through resistance, we are now looking at a period of upside as traders look on with optimism over the potential for further inflation weakness.

With that in mind, another leg higher does look likely, although it is worthwhile keeping a close eye out for a push through 14434 to highlight the end of any retracement phase and signal the beginning of the next move higher.

DAX-Daily-2022_11_15-09h03.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq pointing higher after recent breakout

The Nasdaq has been consolidating above the 11668 level since last Thursday’s bullish breakout, with the US inflation reading bringing a surge for the tech-focused index.

That rally through 11668 signals the potential for a wider retracement following a double bottom formation. We are therefore looking ahead for a potential period of upside to bring price into the deep retracement zone between 12465 and 12946, which also encompasses the trendline and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) indicators.

As such, we are looking at a market that does look likely to push higher once again, although the wider downtrend points towards a potential downturn down the line.

NASDAQ-Daily-2022_11_15-04h18.pngSource: ProRealTime
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    • @MongiIG Hi - You recently covered Long NICKEL Trading the Trend and A. Rudolf did this morning but I see it is Closing only. Please clarify, Thanks D600
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