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FTSE, DAX and Dow show positive signs after intraday upside breaks

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow push through intraday resistance, pointing towards a potential period of upside despite wider bearish trends in play.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 19 July 2022 

FTSE 100 drifts back into trendline support

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed some welcome respite from the selling pressure of late, with Friday seeing the index push up through the 7225 swing-high.

We are seeing price drift lower this morning, bringing the index back into trendline support. Given the latest push through resistance, a move higher from here is possible as the index seeks to build a more positive period. In particular, a rise through 7271 would signal the beginning of that next period of upside for the index.

To the downside, we would need to see a break back below the prior swing-low of 7006 to bring about a more bearish picture once again. Should that occur, we would still need to be aware of the wider 76.4% Fibonacci support level at 6977.

UKX-4-hours-2022_07_19-08h09.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX shows signs of strength as price breaks through resistance

The DAX has similarly enjoyed a positive break from its prior intraday trend of lower highs, with price moving tentatively through 13021 yesterday.

While price has drifted lower since, we have seen the DAX fall back into trendline support and start to move higher at the open this morning. Whether this trendline holds up or not remains to be seen, but it does look likely that we could see further upside come into play given this recent break.

To the downside, we would need to see a move back below the 12432 level to bring about a return to the bearish intraday trend.

DAX-4-hours-2022_07_19-08h19.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow heads lower overnight, but the bulls may not be finished yet

The Dow enjoyed a push up through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and 31509 resistance on Friday, providing a break from the selling pressure that has dominated over recent months. This points towards a wider retracement like that seen in late-May.

With price back into trendline support, there is a chance we will see the bulls come back into play here. However, to the upside, it is worthwhile noting resistance in the form of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci retracements (32005 and 32561).

To the downside, we would need to see price break below the 30131 swing-low to bring the bearish trend back into play.

DJI-4-hours-2022_07_19-03h33.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Calm before the storm for indices

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 amid a slow start to a busy week.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 25 July 2022 

FTSE 100 stays bullish short-term while above 7,199

The FTSE 100 remains technically bullish in the short-term whilst it manages to stay above Thursday’s low at 7,199, following last week’s first bullish week in a month.

It came after better-than-expected UK Gfk consumer confidence data for July which followed UK inflation which surged to its highest level since 1982 to 9.4% in June.

A prolonged summer rally thus remains on the cards but for it to occur, a daily close above last week’s and the late June highs as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,349 to 7,372 needs to ensue, ideally on a Friday weekly closing basis.

If the 7,362 late June high were to be overcome, a double bottom would be formed with its upside target coming in around this year’s highs at 7,621 to 7,688.

Immediate minor support sits between Friday’s 7,231 low and the 7,225 mid-July high with further support lying at Thursday’s low at 7,198, a potential drop through which would eye the May low at 7,157.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX consolidates close to key resistance between 13,444 and 13,447

Last week, the DAX 40 rallied to its 13,444 June 21 high as Russia resumed its gas exports through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on schedule after a planned ten-day maintenance shutdown.

Since then, the DAX has been consolidating below last week’s high at 13,447 as the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to hike rates by 50-basis points (bps) rather than 25bps and elaborated on its new Transmission Protection Instrument.

If the DAX 40 were to rise and also close on a daily basis above the 21 June and last week’s highs at 13,444 to 13,447, the next higher mid-June high at 13,676 would be targeted. If also bettered, a medium-term bullish reversal could lead to a several week-long rally taking the DAX 40 back towards its March-to-June highs at 14,712 to 14,927.

On the way up lies the mid-May low at 13,685. Support below Thursday’s low at 13,099 can be spotted at the 8 July high at 13,021.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 remains bullish ahead of FOMC

Last week the Nasdaq 100 left its June and July ascending triangle to the upside which has medium-term bullish implications as market players look ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision.

The rise above key resistance between the late June and early July highs at 12,180 to 12,227 has pushed the index to above the mid-May high at 12,588, to last week’s high at 12,670, before consolidating.

Once the 12,670 high has been exceeded, the June peak at 12,942 would be in focus. A sustained summer rally taking the index to the May high at 13,554 may currently be in the making.

Support below Friday’s low at 12,319 is seen at 12,227 to 12,180 with further minor support found along the 55-day SMA at 12,025.

Nasdaq 100Source: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow expected to push higher despite current consolidation

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow consolidate after recent gains, with bulls waiting in the wings for another move higher.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 26 July 2022 

FTSE 100 pushes higher after recent consolidation phase

The FTSE 100 has finally started to push higher, with the index managing to push back up into the 7349 resistance level that was established last Wednesday.

With Russian gas concerns expected to hamper sentiment on mainland Europe, we have seen the FTSE 100 outperform, and this could remain the case going forward.

A move up through this 7349 level would bring about a fresh bullish signal for the index, although it should be noted that the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7378, 200-day SMA (7373), and horizontal 7362 resistance levels do also lie just above that breakout point.

As such, the FTSE faces a number of hurdles in the near-term, with the 7349-7378 zone representing a key region to overcome if this early push higher is to persist.

UKX-4-hours-2022_07_26-08h33.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX consolidates after recent upside break

The DAX has been consolidating over the course of the past week, with the index managing to remain stable despite concerns over gas flows out of Russia.

With the Ifo survey stating that the German economy appears to be on the cusp of a recession, it seems much of the negative news has been priced in.

The bullish move into this current consolidation phase does highlight the potential for another push higher from here, with a break through 13367 and 13447 bringing about a more reliable bullish signal for the DAX.

To the downside, we would need to see 12822 taken out for a more bearish outlook to come into play.

DAX-4-hours-2022_07_26-08h42.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow continues to grind higher after push into 61.8% resistance

The Dow has been on the rise over the course of the past 11 days, with the index pushing into a fresh six-week high on Friday.

While we have seen price consolidate thus far this week, this bullish phase does not seem to be over quite yet.

A decline through the 31509 swing-low would bring about a more bearish phase for the index. Until then, there is a good chance that we continue to push higher and head towards the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level of 32561.

DJI-4-hours-2022_07_26-03h53.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices boosted by positive Asian session ahead of Fed rate decision

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of the highly anticipated US rate decision.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 27 July 2022 

FTSE 100 flirts with key resistance

On Tuesday the FTSE 100 probed but failed to overcome its key 7,349 to 7,373 resistance zone, made up of the late June and 20 July high as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A rise and daily close above this level would confirm a double bottom with its upside target coming in around this year’s highs at 7,621 to 7,688.

The index remains technically bullish in the short-term whilst it manages to stay above Thursday’s low at 7,199, following last week’s first bullish week in a month which occurred after better-than-expected UK Gfk consumer confidence data for July and several better-than-expected US earnings reports.

Immediate minor support sits between Friday’s 7,231 low and the 7,225 mid-July high with further support lying at Thursday’s low at 7,199, a potential drop through which would void the current bullish outlook and instead target the May low at 7,157.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX still consolidates close to key resistance between 13,444 and 13,447

The DAX 40 came off its 13,444 to 13,447 June 21 and current July highs to Tuesday’s 13,030 low as Russia announced it would reduce gas flows through the re-opened Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% from Wednesday, having previously opened it on schedule after a planned ten-day maintenance shutdown.

While 13,030 underpins, another attempt at overcoming the 13,444 to 13,447 resistance area may be made, a rise above which would engage the mid-June high at 13,676. If also exceeded, a medium-term bullish reversal could lead to a several week-long rally taking the DAX 40 back towards its March-to-June highs at 14,712 to 14,927.

On the way up lies the mid-May low at 13,685. Support below Tuesday’s low at 13,030 sits at the 8 July high at 13,021 and also at the 19 July low at 12,823.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow consolidates below its recent high

The Dow Jones Industrial Average manage to heave itself up to 32,216 as the US earnings season hit full throttle and managed to get close to the February and March lows at 32,234 to 32,340 before consolidating in a tight trading range ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and expected 75-basis point (bps) rate hike, although a 100bps hike cannot be ruled out either.

For further upside to gain traction, the March low at 32,340 should be overcome in which case the late May and early June highs at 33,162 to 33,460 would be targeted.

Only failure at last Thursday’s low at 31,523 would negate the current short-term bullish outlook.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices rally post 75bps Fed rate hike and accommodating comments

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 post Fed’s fourth consecutive rate hike by 75bps and as chair, Jerome Powell, said a slowdown in the pace of increases may be on the cards.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 28 July 2022 

FTSE 100 breaks through key resistance

The FTSE 100 finally managed to break through its key 7,349 to 7,374 resistance area, made up of the late June and 20 July high as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The index was boosted by stronger US and Asian equity markets after the Fed delivered another 75-basis point (bps) rate hike, taking the fed funds rate to 2.25%-2.5%.

A rise and daily close above 7,374 would confirm a double bottom with an upside target coming in around this year’s highs at 7,621 to 7,688.

The index remains technically bullish in the short-term while it stays above Thursday’s low at 7,199, following last week’s first bullish week in a month.

Immediate minor support below last week’s high at 7,349 sits between Friday’s 7,231 low and the 7,225 mid-July high, with further support lying at Thursday’s low at 7,199, a currently unexpected drop through which would void the current bullish outlook and instead target the May low at 7,157.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX is gunning for key resistance at 13,444 to 13,447

The DAX 40 is heading back up towards its 13,444 to 13,447 June 21 and current July highs, having recovered from Tuesday’s 13,030 low.

The index rises to a lesser degree than other markets, though, as Russia’s reduction in the flow of gas through the re-opened Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% casts a shadow over the German economy.

Nonetheless, while 13,030 underpins, another attempt at overcoming the 13,444 to 13,447 resistance area may be made, a rise above which would engage the mid-June high at 13,676. If also exceeded, a medium-term bullish reversal could lead to a several week-long rally taking the DAX 40 back towards its March-to-June highs at 14,712 to 14,927.

On the way up lies the mid-May low at 13,685. Support below Tuesday’s low at 13,030 can be found at the 8 July high at 13,021 and also at the 19 July low at 12,823.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 rallies post FOMC rate hike

The Nasdaq 100 is rallying amid the Fed’s fourth consecutive rate hike, taking fed funds to 2.25%-2.5%.

Fed chair, Jerome Powell’s comments that it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases depending on the inflationary and economic outlook triggered a global relief rally in equities.

The fact that the Nasdaq 100 revisited its June to July ascending triangle line and that it acted as support ahead of Wednesday’s rally makes the current advance towards the 12,670 22 July high more solid. Once the 12,670 high has been exceeded, the June peak at 12,942 should be in focus. A sustained summer rally taking the index to the May high at 13,554 may currently be in the making.

Support below Wednesday and last Friday’s lows at 12,239 to 12,319 are seen at 12,227 to 12,180, with further minor support found along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and at Tuesday’s low at 12,048 to 12,036.

Nasdaq chartSource: ProRealTime
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S&P 500 trading at 7-week highs while FTSE 100 and DAX 40 struggle to keep up

Outlook on the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as US equity indices lead the way higher.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 29 July 2022 

FTSE 100 still attempting to break through key resistance

The FTSE 100 is struggling to break through its key 7,349 to 7,374 resistance area on a daily chart closing basis on easing Federal Reserve hike bets as it moots the idea of reducing the pace of future tightening.

The resistance area consists of the late June and 20 July high as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Thursday’s rise and daily close above 7,374 confirmed a double bottom with an upside target coming in around this year’s highs at 7,621 to 7,688. For this bullish signal to be strengthened, ideally an advance above Thursday’s high at 7,411 should ensue as well.

Immediate minor support below last week’s high at 7,349 sits at Thursday’s low at 7,309. The index remains technically short-term bullish while it stays above this level on a daily chart closing basis.

29072022_UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX tries to overcome key resistance at 13,444 to 13,458

The DAX 40 has revisited its 13,444 to 13,458 June 21 and current July highs, having recovered from Tuesday’s 13,030 low.

France’s better than expected second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.5%, versus estimates of 0.2%, added to the positive short-term sentiment which permeates equity markets at present.

While 13,030 underpins, another attempt at overcoming the 13,444 to 13,458 resistance area may unfold, an advance above which would engage the mid-June high at 13,676 and also the mid-May low at 13,685.

If exceeded, a medium-term bullish reversal could lead to a several week-long rally taking the DAX 40 back towards its March-to-June highs at 14,712 to 14,927.

Support below Tuesday’s low at 13,030 can be found at the 8 July high at 13,021 and also at the 19 July low at 12,823.

29072022_DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rallies to 7-week highs

The S&P 500 is trading at seven-week highs and is accelerating to the upside, helped by positive US earnings and Federal Resever chair, Jerome Powell’s comments that slowing the pace of rate hikes whilst keeping a close eye on inflation and the economy might be appropriate.

Over the past couple of days, the index has risen by over 3.5% and is fast approaching its May and June highs at 4,189 to 4,203 which represent important resistance.

Minor support can be spotted at the 22 July high at 4,012.

29072022_SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 on back foot after strong July rally

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as US equity indices continue to lead the way higher.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 01 August 2022 

FTSE 100 gunning for the 7500 region

Last week the FTSE 100 finally broke through its key 7,349 to 7,376 resistance area on a daily chart closing basis on easing Federal Reserve (Fed) hike bets.

This resistance area which consists of the late June and 20 July high as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is now expected to act as support.

Thursday’s rise and daily close above 7,376 confirmed a double bottom with an upside target coming in around this year’s highs at 7,621 to 7,688 but first the 1 June low at 7,518 needs to be overcome.

Below 7,349 lies last Thursday’s low at 7,309. The index remains technically bullish while it stays above this level on a daily chart closing basis.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX rally nears the mid-June high at 13,676

The DAX 40 slid back to its 13,447 July high on weaker than expected German retail sales which tumbled to 1.6% month-on-month (MoM) in June versus a revised 1.2% in May and compared to a market forecast of an 0.2% increase before stabilising.

Further minor support can be seen along the one-month support line at 13,220 and more important support at the 13,030 late July low.

Provided that it underpins, the mid-June high at 13,676 and also the mid-May low at 13,685 continue to be in focus. If exceeded, a medium-term bullish reversal could lead to a several week-long rally taking the DAX 40 back towards its March-to-June highs at 14,712 to 14,927.

Support below last Tuesday’s low at 13,030 can be found at the 8 July high at 13,021 and also at the 19 July low at 12,823.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rally nears the May to June highs at 4,189 to 4,203

Late last week the S&P 500 accelerated to the upside, helped by Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s comments that slowing the pace of rate hikes whilst keeping a close eye on inflation and the economy might be appropriate and 78% of S&P 500 earnings so far beating expectations.

The index rose by close to 8% in July, its best performance in years, and is seen heading towards the May to June highs at 4,189 to 4,203 which are likely to offer resistance. at least in the short-term.

Minor support can be spotted at the early June lows at 4,077 to 4,074 and further potential support at the 22 July high at 4,012.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow ease back as Pelosi heads to Taipei

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow have been easing back at the beginning of the week, with Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei bringing short-term risks.

FTSE 100 chartSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 August 2022 

FTSE 100 falls back into trendline and Fibonacci support

The FTSE 100 started off the week on the back foot, with the index turning lower over the course of yesterday's session.

However, set within a wider recovery phase, there is a good chance we see the bulls come back into play for the index. The four-hour chart highlights how price has found support on the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci support and ascending trendline.

With that in mind, there is a good chance we see the bulls come back into play here, with a break back below the 7308 support level required to bring about a wider pullback into play.

Until then, bullish positions are favoured here.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX easing back after six-week high

The DAX has also been on the back foot, with price turning lower off the back of a Monday morning rise into a six-week high.

Recent economic data out of the eurozone has caused some consternation, with the contractions seen across eurozone manufacturing PMI readings also bringing about a confirmation that the German sector shrank in July.

Nonetheless, we are yet to see a reversal signal for the DAX despite the weakness seen thus far. A move back below the 13339 swing-low could bring a wider period of downside into play for the index.

With price moving back towards that level, there is a growing chance of a wider retracement of the 13029-13572. As such, the short-term picture will be dictated by whether or not we break this 13339 support level.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow rolls over as Pelosi heads to Taipei

The Dow has started to roll over following a rise into a six-week high, with price heading back towards an ascending trendline of support.

That weakness comes as House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, sets off on an Asian tour that includes a highly contentious visit to the Taiwan capital, Taipei.

Quite how China will react remains to be seen, but that heightening of tensions does provide a worrying backdrop for markets. With that in mind, we could see short-term downside as markets determine just how much of a risk this event will be.

To the downside, watch out for a potential trendline rebound, with a break below that line bringing about a wider retracement of the rally from 31694.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow weakness could bring buying opportunity

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow drift lower as Pelosi stokes US-China tensions, but that weakness could soon bring a buying opportunity.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 August 2022 

FTSE 100 finds Fibonacci support once more

The FTSE 100 has continued to struggle in its attempts to push higher, with markets seemingly waiting to draw a line under Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week.

With China embarking on military exercises on all sides of the country, tensions are clearly high. However, Pelosi reportedly plans to leave today, which could bring a relief rally to stocks and remove some of the risk-off sentiment that has been taking hold.

For the FTSE, we have seen price fall back into the 61.8% Fibonacci level once again this morning, with that point of support again holding strong.

With the index clearly still trading within a bullish pattern over the past three weeks, it makes sense to view this current pullback as a buying opportunity, with a bullish outlook in play unless price falls back below the 7308 swing-low.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX expected to push higher from recent consolidation

The DAX has been taking a breather this week, with recent gains having taken the index into a fresh six-week high.

The declines seen over the course of this week thus far take price back down towards trendline support. Quite whether we see the index head higher from this trendline or break lower remains to be seen.

However, the bullish pattern playing out over the course of the past three weeks brings expectations that this period of weakness is a precursor to price heading higher once again.

As such, a bullish outlook holds as long as price remains above the 13029 swing-low.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow falls through trendline support after nervy period

The Dow has similarly been heading lower this week, with Pelosi’s visit to Taipei sparking a risk-off move in anticipation of a breakdown in US-China relations.

However, traders should have grown accustomed to standoffs between the two nations, with fears typically subsiding soon after any confrontation.

On this occasion, we are likely to see the bulls come back into play once the House Speaker leaves the island nation (today?).

As such, while the downside seen over the course of Monday and Tuesday have taken us down through trendline support, there is a strong chance that this current pullback will bring a good buying opportunity.

A break below the 31694 swing-low would bring about a bearish picture given the wider trend evident over recent months.

However, until that happens, this current pullback looks like a potential precursor to another move higher once Pelosi leaves Taiwan.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 on the up again

Indices managed to stage a recovery yesterday, reversing fears that a move lower was beginning.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 04 August 2022 

FTSE 100 rally continues

The index continues its breakout from the range that dominated in June and July, joining in the global rally and holding close to a two-month high.

Additional gains target shallow trendline resistance from the April highs, which would come into view just below 7600, and then on to the June high at 7630.

Trendline support from late July continues to underpin the move higher, but a reversal below 7380 would negate some of this bullish outlook.

A drop back below 7300 would put the index back in the recent range, and continued price action below this level would add to a bearish view.

FTSE_040822.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rally reverses bearish view

Yesterday’s bounce put the index back on to a bullish trajectory, and put it at a fresh two-month high.

More gains will target the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 13,765, and then on towards 13,826. June’s high at 14,640 remains the area to watch however; if the price is unable to move above this level then the downtrend remains firmly intact.

Wednesday’s bounce puts the buyers back in charge, but a reversal below 13,400 would mark a bearish development, with a renewed drop putting the July lows back into view.

DAX_040822.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 back on the front foot

Here too Wednesday’s session restored the bullish outlook. The price is now heading back to the area just below 4200 which marked the highs in late May and early June. A break above 4200 cements the bullish view, and would bring 4300 into view.

The index has rallied by almost 15% from its June lows, with no sign yet that a reversal will gain traction. Losses that put the index back below 4100 would reinforce the view that a lower high has been created.

SPX_040822.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 3 weeks later...

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 head lower in early trading

Indices have resumed the selling that began last week, and have pushed lower in early trading.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 22 August 2022 

FTSE 100 falters at post-April trendline

The index has returned to trendline resistance from the April highs and is beginning to head lower.

This marks the potential beginning of a fresh turn lower that will target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7392, and then on to the 7340 zone that marked resistance on the way up.

Below the 7250 level the price would be back in the trading range that marked the swings of June and July, between 7000 and 7250.

A recovery above 7560 would put the index back on an upward path, targeting 7600 and then 7690.

SPX_220822.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX losses accelerate

With this index it looks like a full-blown reversal is in progress, with the DAX having shed some 600 points over the past four sessions.

The 50-day SMA at 13,245 is now in sight, and below this 13,070 would come into play as possible support.

If the index has created a lower high then the drop could push all the way back to 12,500, as the downtrend for the year so far reasserts itself.

DAX_220822.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 futures move sharply lower

A potential reversal at the 200-day SMA could spell the beginning of a bigger downward move here for the index.

The price finds itself back below 4200, with 4100 the next major level to look out for. Potential levels below this would be 4000, as well as the 50-day SMA (currently 3967).

Buyers would be looking for a reversal back above 4200 and then on to the 200-day SMA at 4305. The inability to hold above the 200-day SMA is a potentially negative sign, although given the scale of the rebound from the June lows it is perhaps not surprising that the index has stalled at the 200-day SMA on the first try.

SPX_220822.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq reverse lower, with further downside likely

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq head lower, with markets appearing to have topped out after a two-month recovery period.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 23 August 2022 

FTSE 100 heads lower as pound helps alleviate downside

The FTSE 100 has managed to hold off the downward pressure seen across global markets thus far, with the dramatic declines seen elsewhere simply not evident in this index.

That comes as a result of the sharp declines seen for the pound, with a collapse in GBP/USD bringing an upward rerating of the value of earnings for those companies reporting in dollars.

However, there will be a limit to the amount of time the index can hold off in the face of losses elsewhere, with price heading lower around the open today.

The question comes down to whether we see the 7463 swing-low taken out to negate the recent uptrend. Should that occur, we could finally see the index follow its peers lower.

UKX-4-hours-2022_08_23-07h40.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX collapse looks set to continue

The DAX has been a posterchild of this latest collapse in stocks, with the German bourse losing roughly 6% over the past week.

The risks associated with the energy crisis for Germany are significant, raising question marks over the impact on economic growth as we move towards the winter.

Meanwhile, there are questions over just how nimble and supportive the European Central Bank (ECB) can be when members are being affected by a crisis to different degrees.

The DAX has been selling off heavily since breaking back below the 13454 swing-low, bringing an end to the recovery phase seen throughout much of the past month. That decline looks set to continue unless we see price rise through the latest swing-high of 13781.

DAX-4-hours-2022_08_23-07h45.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq tumbles through support to end recent recovery trend

The Nasdaq has similarly broken from its bullish recovery trend this week, with price falling back down through the 12942 support level to end the creation of higher lows evident through the past two months.

This ramps up the likeliness of a bearish phase, with the declines seen throughout the first half of 2022 expected to come back into play from here.

It is worthwhile noting that the tech/growth names within the Nasdaq have previously been at the forefront of market declines given the stretched nature of their P/E ratios.

With that in mind, it makes sense to look for bearish positions in the Nasdaq until price manages to retake the latest swing-high (currently 13722).

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_08_23-03h08.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq losses ease, but bearish outlook remains

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq at risk of further downside, with short-term consolidation expected to give way once again.

BG_ftse_ukx_stock_markets_indices.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 24 August 2022 

FTSE 100 heads back into support as pound helps alleviate losses

The FTSE 100 has been threatening to break towards the downside over the course of this week with price action still relatively muted in comparison to its peers.

The recent collapse in the pound served to minimise the severity of the sell-off seen in this market with price yet to break through support to bring a bearish signal.

However, with price currently resting above that 7463 swing low there is a good chance that we do finally get to see they bearish breakdown for this index.

For traders, near-term sentiment looks set to be determined by the success or failure of breaking through 7463.

UKX-4-hours-2022_08_24-07h37.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX pauses after latest leg lower

The DAX have seen dramatic declines over the course of the past week with fears around German growth prospects serving to damage equity valuations throughout the region.

The selling pressure seen up until now appears to be slowing, with price starting to show some signs of life. Whether we see any decent upside move remains to be seen with a rise through the 13299 resistance level required to bring a wider upside pop for the index.

Until the 13299 level breaks any near-term consolidation looks to be a precursor to further downside.

DAX-4-hours-2022_08_24-07h36.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq takes out support, with price falling back into next level

The Nasdaq has similarly been on the back foot over the course of the past week. However, it is only just now that we have seen price break below key support to negate the uptrend evident over recent months.

That move back down through 12942 support brings greater confidence that this market has topped out, with bearish positions favoured as a result. Nonetheless price has paused at the next support level of 12795, and we are seeing some consolidation here.

A move back up through 13001 resistance would signal a potential upside retracement phase coming into play. However until that move happens we are looking at further short-term downside to continue building on this apparent top that has come into fruition for the Nasdaq.

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_08_24-03h00.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 recover losses

Indices have staged a turnaround from yesterday’s lows, and are in strong form ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

BG_ftse_ukx_stock_markets_indices.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 25 August 2022 

FTSE 100 bounces from three-week low

The index fell to its lowest level in three weeks yesterday, but has now rebounded to recoup all of yesterday’s losses.

Additional gains now target trendline resistance from the April highs once more, which would coincide with the 7580 highs from last week. A breakout above here puts 7620 and then 7690 into view.

A reversal below 7400 would put the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) back in view, and then down towards 7240.

FTSE_250822.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX looks to create higher low

After dipping below the 50-day SMA earlier in the week the index has rebounded, potentially creating a higher low.

Continued gains from the current level would put the price on course to target the 100-day SMA at 13,638, and then on to the mid-August high at 13,990.

The recovery of the past two days may well have created a higher low, boosting the bullish medium-term view.

It would take a reversal back below Wednesday’s low of 13,079 to put the sellers back in charge, and would suggest a move back towards the July lows at 12,500.

DAX_250822.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 climbs ahead of Powell speech

The reversal from the 200-day SMA at the end of last week may well have ended with the recovery in the index over the past 24 hours.

A continued move above 4200 bolsters the bullish view, and puts the price on course to target the 200-day SMA (currently 4297), and then on to the mid-August high at 4325.

The bullish view remains in place unless we see a reversal that eliminates yesterday’s bounce and sees the price drop below 4100. This might then suggest further weakness towards the July lows.

SPX_250822.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq losses ease, but bearish outlook remains

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq continue to grind higher, but bearish risks remain prominent ahead of Powell’s appearance at Jackson Hole.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 26 August 2022 

FTSE 100 at risk of fading given recent break through support

The FTSE 100 has been on the rise over recent days, with price recovering from the significant breakdown on Wednesday.

However, it is that break below 7463 which appears to pave the way for further downside here as it ended the bullish trend of higher lows. When such a breakdown occurs, the subsequent rebound is typically expected to provide a retracement before the market turns over once again.

That appears to be playing out with price having perfectly respected the 76.4% Fibonacci level yesterday. With that in mind a bearish outlook holds for the FTSE 100 here with a rise up through 7577 required to negate that outlook.

UKX-4-hours-2022_08_26-07h16.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX struggling to move beyond the 200-SMA resistance

The DAX has been attempting to regain ground over the course of the past two days. However, the upside momentum appears to be struggling at the confluence of 13339 resistance and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

With the stochastic back up into overbought territory there is also a chance we see momentum fade before long.

Coming off the back of a break below the crucial 13454 support level it is thus expected that this market will soon turn lower with the break up through the prior swing high of 13781 required to bring about a more positive outlook.

DAX-4-hours-2022_08_26-07h20.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq on the rise as traders await Powell appearance

The Nasdaq has been on the rise over the past two days with the index seeking to regain ground lost over the week prior.

Today could bring fireworks for financial markets as traders await the appearance of Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Given the sensitivity of growth stocks to interest rate movements, Powell’s guidance over where the Federal Reserve goes from here will be important for the Nasdaq.

In terms of price, the decline through 12942 brought an end to the uptrend in play over the course of the past two months. With that in mind, the rise seen since Wednesday's low looks to be a retracement before price starts to roll over once more.

As such, a bearish turn looks likely before long with the stochastic oscillator providing another tool to watch given the recent rise into overbought territory.

Quite whether we see further short-term gains remains to be seen, but this current rally does look likely to represent a precursor to another bearish reversal before long.

That bearish view holds unless price rises through the prior peak of 13722.

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_08_26-02h47.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq upside unlikely to last

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq on the front foot in early trade, but bears wait in the wings to drive prices lower once again.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 September 2022 

FTSE 100 rallies into 61.8% retracement level

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a rare period of upside over the course of this week thus far with price rising into a one week high.

However, despite the tentative push through Friday's high we are already starting to see signs that the bears could come back into play here. The stochastic oscillator is well into overbought territory, rolling over to signal a potential bearish shift for momentum.

Meanwhile, with price into the deep Fibonacci zone between the 61.8% and 76.4% levels, it looks highly likely that the bears regain the front footing before long.

As such a bearish view holds unless price rallies through the most recent swing high of 7391.

UKX-4-hours-2022_09_06-07h46.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX expected to maintain downtrend irrespective of near-term gains

The DAX has managed to take back some of the losses sustained over the course of a particularly volatile Friday session. That volatility appears to be predominantly geared towards the downside with more tentative periods of bullish momentum often wiped out by a sharp collapse in price.

The bearish trend remains dominant for this pair with near-term gains viewed as a retracement before we see a fresh low created once again. That is no different on this occasion with the current rise providing a midsized retracement of the selloff from 13057.

Whilst we could see further short-term upside to build a deeper pullback, the bears are expected to take hold once again before long. That negative view holds unless price rises through the 13057 swing high.

DAX-4-hours-2022_09_06-08h07.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq on the rise once again

The Nasdaq has been at the forefront of the selling pressure across in the US, with the index currently 27% below it's 2021 high.

Growth stocks are often full front of any bull market but periods of contraction with rising rates do provide particular risk that those gains are swiftly deflated.

Friday saw this index fall sharply from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with price falling back towards the prior swing low of 12011. However, we are seeing an upward turn from that level with price failing to create a new lower low. Instead, we look to be moving upwards into a fresh retracement for the near-term.

A break up through the 12502 swing high would be required to bring about a more bullish outlook. Until then short-term gains are likely to be sold into.

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_09_06-03h21.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 on back foot as yields surge

Technical levels for the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 within their fundamental context.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 September 2022 

FTSE 100 follows Wall Street lower

The FTSE 100 opened lower on Wednesday on the back of US indices which hit six- to seven-week lows amid rapidly rising yields.

This comes after the index rallied to its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,330 in the previous three sessions before being rejected by it. While it caps, another down leg towards the early September low at 7,131 seems to be on the cards, continuing the August descent.

Slightly below 7,131 the March to September uptrend line can be found at 7,108.

Minor resistance is to be seen around the 7,300 mark which may be revisited before further downside is seen as the UK Halifax month-on-month house price index came in at a better than expected 0.4% versus an expected 0.1% and compared to -0.1% in the previous month.

07092022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX takes a hit amid worries of a looming recession

The DAX 40 slid to 12,703 in its overnight session, in line with weaker US and Asian equity markets following rapidly rising US yields and disappointing trade data for China.

The index remains within its downtrend channel as investors continue to worry about a looming European recession and await the highly anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday which may see an aggressive 75-basis point rate hike.

Better-than-expected German industrial production, coming in at a month-on-month -0.3% compared to an expected -0.5%, helped the index stabilise.

Support below Wednesday’s overnight session low at 12,703 can be found at the early September lows at 12,602 to 12,596, a slip through which would have medium-term bearish implications.

Resistance is to be seen along the downtrend channel resistance line at 12,858 and also at Tuesday’s 12,931 high.

07092022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 drops to mid-July lows

The S&P 500 continues to slide within its August to September downtrend channel as US yields surge with a drop through Tuesday’s low at 3,884 opening the way for a slide towards the July trough at 3,720 to be witnessed.

This will remain the case while no rise and daily chart close above Tuesday’s high at 3,961 unfolds.

Minor support on the way down sits at the May low at 3,811. Immediate resistance can be found at the late July 3,911 low.

07092022SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 on the front foot after bounce

Indices rebounded yesterday, and are looking for further gains in early trading today, although the tone is still cautious as investors await the ECB decision.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 September 2022 

FTSE 100 holds above 7250

The index posted a strong recovery yesterday, rallying back above 7200. It has stabilised in early trading, holding above support around 7238. Additional gains need to push on above 7300 and then Tuesday’s high of 7325.

This might then suggest additional upside towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7399, while a bigger rebound targets the August peak at 7565.

It would take a reversal below 7150 to suggest a renewed move to the downside is in play, targeting 7130, and then down to 7040.

FTSE_080922.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX stuck below 13,000

The rally from earlier in the week entered a higher gear yesterday, as the price rebounded from the low near 12,600 to move back to 13,000.

Additional gains above 13,000 would then bring the 50-day SMA at 13,186 into view, and would then suggest that a bigger move higher is in play. This might indicate a move towards 13,976, the highs from mid-August.

Sellers will be watching for a reversal back below 12,800 that would denote a fresh move to the downside that could target the July lows around 12,410.

DAX_080922.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 bounces back above trendline support

After dipping to a two-month low earlier in the week, the price recovered and moved back above the trendline from the June low.

Additional gains now target the 4000 level, and then on to the 50-day SMA at 4027.

If the price has created a higher low then a continued move up will target the 200-day SMA at 4262 and then 4300, the August high.

A drop below 3900 is needed to revive the bearish view that prevailed until yesterday’s bounce.

SPX_080922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 recover despite rate hikes

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 post ECB 75-basis point rate hike.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 September 2022 

FTSE 100 follows Wall Street and Asia higher

The FTSE 100 opened up on Friday, following US and Asian markets higher as the US dollar retraces for a third day in a row and the US 10-year treasury yield pauses its ascent around the 3.30% mark.

The current end-of-week rally has taken the FTSE 100 to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,336 with the late June and 20 July highs at 7,349 to 7,362 and then the 200-day SMA at 7,400 being next in line.

For a significant bullish reversal to be confirmed the late August high at 7,487 should ideally be taken out. Minor slips should find support along the breached one-month downtrend line at 7,316 and around the 7,300 mark.

09092022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX recovers in line with Asian and US markets

The DAX 40’s recovery from Thursday’s 12,688 low is taking shape despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented 75-basis point rate hike, which itself came after a 50-basis point rise in July, and despite the central bank indicating that several more hikes are in the pipeline.

China’s inflation, which unexpectedly fell to 2.5% year-on-year in August, helped boost Asian markets which in turn aided European equity indices in their recovery.

The DAX 40 index has now definitely left its downtrend channel and is gunning for its 13,057 early September high, a rise above which would engage the 55-day SMA at 13,169 ahead of the 26 August high at 13,376.

Strong support remains to be seen between the late August and September lows at 12,706 to 12,596.

09092022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 recovery is ongoing

The S&P 500 has left its August to September downtrend channel as the surge in US yields pauses and the US dollar is entering its third straight day of consolidation.

The index is now trading back above the 4,000 mark and is aiming for the 30 August high at 4,071, above which minor resistance can be encountered at the 4,102 5 August low.

Minor support below the 55-day SMA at 4,013 can be found at Wednesday’s high at 3,988 and further support around the 3,960 zone. Key support remains to be seen at the current September low at 3,884, a fall through which would have medium-term bearish implications and would push the June and July lows at 3,720 to 3,636 back to the fore.

09092022SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 on the up as the new week begins

Indices have picked up where they left off, making further gains (or at least holding) steady after last week’s recovery in risk sentiment.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 September 2022 

FTSE 100 returns to the 200-day SMA

The past week has seen the index rebound from a six-week low, and it now sits at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) - currently 7409.

Additional gains from here target the highs of August near 7600, with trendline resistance from the April high coming in around 7550. Above 7600 the price then moves on towards the high of June (around 7630).

The more bullish view remains in place unless we see a drop back below 7300 which might then suggest a fresh drop back towards the September low.

FTSE_120922.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX pushes on above 50-day SMA

This index staged a bounce last week as well, moving sharply higher from its September low.

Further gains will depend on whether the price can move above 13,370, which marked an area of resistance in late August. Above this level, the 100-day SMA (13,487) and then the August high at 13,976 come back into view as upside targets.

Sellers will be watching for a reversal back below the 50-day SMA as a first indication that bearish pressure has resumed.

DAX_120922.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 makes further headway

The index has moved resolutely higher, pushing back above the intraday peak of late August around 4070.

Further upside puts the 4200 level and then the August high at 4300 into play, with the 200-day SMA likely to come into play before then.

Bulls will take heart from the fact the market established a higher low in September, rebounding off trendline support. If the index can now move above the mid-August high and establish a higher low, then the bullish view would become even more entrenched.

SPX_120922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 await US CPI data

Technical analysis on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 within their fundamental context.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 September 2022 

FTSE 100 continues to rally as unemployment lowest since 1974

The FTSE 100 looks bid on Tuesday as the UK jobless rate fell to 3.6% in the three months to July of 2022, the lowest reading since 1974, and compared to 3.8% in the previous period.

The index is now trading close to its late August high at 7,487, a rise and daily chart close above which would confirm a significant bullish reversal with the 25 August high at 7,536 and the August peak at 7,577 being eyed.

The area around the 7,487 high may cap in the short-term, however, as the FTSE 100 pauses its 3% rally of the past couple of days.

Good support comes in along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,403.

13092022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX advance is ongoing

The DAX 40’s recovery from last week’s 12,688 low is ongoing on the back of stronger US and Asian markets and as the final German inflation rate was confirmed at 7.9% in August, its highest level since reunification.

However, on a month-on-month basis inflation came in at 0.3%, easing from 0.9% in July.

With the DAX 40 having overcome the 26 August high at 13,376, the 17 August low at 13,606 represents its next upside target, followed by the 13,796 early August high and the August peak at 13,975.

Minor support comes in along the 55-day SMA and the 30 August high at 13,182 to 13,157.

13092022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Four consecutive day S&P 500 rally continues

The S&P 500 extended gains for the fourth session, so far by over 6% from its early September low, amid hopes that the publication of US prices data later today might offer another signal that inflation has peaked.

The index is now trading back above the 4,102 5 August low and nears the 8 August high at 4,186, above which lurks the 26 August high at 4,215. Further up the 200-day SMA can be spotted at 4,256.

Minor support may be found around the 30 August high at 4,071 and below it along the 55-day SMA at 4,024. Key support remains to be seen at the early September low at 3,884, a fall through which would have medium-term bearish implications and would push the June and July lows at 3,720 to 3,636 back to the fore.

13092022SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 see biggest losses in months

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 after US CPI data.

FTSE 100Source: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 14 September 2022 

FTSE 100 forms bearish engulfing day

The FTSE 100 reversed its short-term uptrend in line with US and Asian markets as higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) data increased fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to pursue a more aggressive tightening policy to combat inflation.

The index topped out at 7,515 on Tuesday before forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart whereby yesterday’s negative open-to-close body completely “engulfed” the previous day’s bullish body.

Since this reversal pattern comes after an Elliott wave zigzag correction, a decline to below the 7,131 early September low is likely to ensue in the course of the coming days despite the UK inflation rate unexpectedly slowing to 9.9% in August from 10.1% in July, which was the highest reading since 1982. It is the first time in 11 months that inflation dropped, amid a big slowdown in the cost of motor fuel prices. Having said that, core prices continued to climb to 6.3% year-on-year versus 6.2% previously.

Minor support may be found along the breached one-month resistance line, now because of inverse polarity support line, at 7,252 while resistance is seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,402.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX's September rally ends abruptly

The DAX 40’s recovery from last week’s 12,688 low ended abruptly at Tuesday’s 13,570 high as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US CPI rose by 0.1% in August and by 8.3% from last year versus an expected 0.1% fall and 8.1% rise respectively.

The higher reading stoked fears that the Fed will not only raise rates by 75- and perhaps even 100 basis points (bps) at next week’s meeting but also continue to pursue an aggressive monetary tightening policy to reign in soaring inflation.

The index formed a bearish reversal candle and is now trading below its 55-day SMA whilst revisiting the 13,057 early September high with an eventual slide to below its early September low at 12,596 looking probable.

Above the 55-day SMA at 13,178 resistance can be found between the early August low and late August high at 13,334 to 13,376. Further resistance comes in at the 20 July high at 13,376.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 logs biggest one-day drop in two years as US CPI remains elevated

The S&P 500 brutally ended its four-day rally at 4,155 before selling off by 4.32% in regular trading as US consumer price inflation came in higher than expected.

This made investors fret about the prospect of an even more aggressive response from the Fed and provoked the biggest one-day drop in over two years as the index wiped out the previous three days’ gains within one day.

Key support at the early September low at 3,884 is thus back in sight, a fall through which would have medium-term bearish implications and would put the June and July lows at 3,720 to 3,636 back on the map.

Resistance can be seen along the 55-day SMA at 4,022.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 stabilise in the short-term

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 post US CPI rout.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 15 September 2022 

FTSE 100 slide is taking a breather

The FTSE 100 reversed its recent short-term uptrend on Tuesday amid higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) data which stoked fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to pursue a more aggressive tightening policy to combat inflation.

The index topped out at 7,515 on Tuesday when it formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart and slipped to 7,259 the following day before stabilising above this level.

Since this reversal pattern comes after an Elliott wave zigzag correction, a decline to below the 7,131 early September low is likely to ensue in the course of the coming days despite the UK inflation rate unexpectedly slowing to 9.9% in August from 10.1% in July, which was the highest reading since 1982, on Wednesday. It is the first time in 11 months that inflation dropped, amid a big slowdown in the cost of motor fuel prices. Having said that, core prices continued to climb to 6.3% year-on-year versus 6.2% previously.

Today minor support may be found along the breached one-month resistance line, now because of inverse polarity, support line at 7,230 while minor resistance is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,344 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 7,402.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX drop slows down

The DAX 40’s swift sell-off from Tuesday’s 13,570 high, as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US CPI rose by 0.1% in August and by 8.3% from last year versus an expected 0.1% fall and 8.1% rise respectively, has so far taken it to Wednesday’s low at 12,951 before levelling out in the short-term.

The index formed a bearish reversal candle on Tuesday and is now trading below its 55-day SMA at 13,183. A fall through Wednesday’s low at 12,951 would engage the early September low at 12,596.

Above the 55-day SMA at 13,183 minor resistance can be found between the early August low and late August high at 13,334 to 13,376. Further resistance comes in at the 20 July high at 13,376.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 stabilises above support line for now

The Nasdaq 100 took a 4% hit earlier in the week after the publication of higher-than-expected US CPI data but has so far managed to hold above its June-to-September support line.

The higher-than-expected inflation reading made some analysts change their forecast from a 75-basis point Fed rate hike next week to a 100-basis point hike and indicates that the central bank is likely to pursue an aggressive monetary tightening policy to reign in soaring inflation.

While this week’s high at 12,902 isn’t overcome, the odds favour a slide towards the June low in the coming weeks. The index has already been in a downtrend since the middle of August with a series of lower highs and lower lows being visible on the daily chart.

In the course of this week, it is likely that the three-month support line at 12,018 and also the early September low at 11,918 will give way with the mid-July low at 11,451 representing the next downside target. Slightly below it sits the late June low at 11,317 and further down the June trough at 11,037.

Any attempt of a bounce may already be thwarted by the June and early July highs at 12,180 to 12,227. If not, the 2 September high at 12,454 together with the 55-day SMA at 12,551 offer stronger resistance.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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Rout in FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 continues

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 00 ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 16 September 2022 

FTSE 100 continues its descent

The FTSE 100's decline on the back of higher-than-expected US CPI data on Tuesday, which made investors fear that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to pursue a more aggressive tightening policy to combat inflation, is ongoing.

The decline in UK retail sales, the biggest so far this year with a drop of 1.6% month-on-month in August following a 0.4% rise in July, should also exert downside pressure on the UK stock market. The data came in much worse than an expected 0.5% drop, with rising cost of living prices weighing on consumer spending.

The index topped out at 7,515 on Tuesday when it formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart and so far tumbled to its breached one-month resistance line at 7,228. A slide through this level would push the 8 September low at 7,174 and also the 1 September trough at 7,131 to the fore.

Today minor support may be found along the breached one-month resistance line, now because of inverse polarity support line, at 7,231 while resistance comes in between the 6 September high at 7,325 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,344 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 7,402.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX descent has further to go

The DAX 40’s swift sell-off from Tuesday’s 13,570 high has further to go as the index follows US and Asian markets lower and as the IMF downgrades its growth forecast for 2023 and the World Bank warned of a global recession next year, prompted by the wave of tightening central banks.

The index formed a bearish reversal candle on Tuesday and is now trading below its September support line at 12,870 with the early September lows at 12,688 to 12,596 being in focus. Failure there would engage the July lows at 12,432 to 12,386.

Good resistance can now be found between the 2 September high and the 55-day SMA at 13,057 to 13,178. Above the 55-day SMA minor resistance can be seen between the early August low and late August high at 13,334 to 13,376.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 trades in two-month lows

The S&P 500’s rapid descent from Tuesday’s 4,155 high, to 7% so far by close, is taking the index to its 3,720 July low as investors brace for a large US rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and worry about the impact it and further tightening will have on the US economy.

Furthermore, shares of companies such as Hilton Food Group took a massive plunge on Thursday, down 23.8%, having issued a profit warning earlier which was attributed to profit falls due to higher costs from inflation as opposed to falls in revenue.

FedEx also warned last night about further weakness in the economy and is down around 16% in after-hours trading.

The prospect of an aggressive response from the Fed to soaring inflation has pushed the S&P 500 to a two-month low with the 4 July high at 3,853 representing its next downside target.

Further down beckon the June and July lows at 3,720 to 3,636. Resistance above the 3,884 to 3,904 early September lows can be spotted at yesterday’s high at 3,958.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq rebound expected to falter

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq attempt to regain ground as we start a new week, but bearish influences could soon drive indices lower once again.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 September 2022 

FTSE 100 stabilises around Fibonacci support

The FTSE 100 has been subject to significant selling pressure over the course of the past week, with the index falling 4% from last Tuesday’s peak of 7515.

Fortunately, we have started the week on a somewhat brighter note, with price rebounding from the 76.4% Fibonacci support level (7222) despite yesterday’s bank holiday. This should result in a strong open for UK markets, but there is still risk as we remain below the 7297.

A break above that intraday swing-high of 7297 would bring about a more positive short-term view, building on the Fibonacci rebound rather than the recent bearish move. However, until that happens there is a good chance that price reverses downward to continue this recent bearish move.

Ultimately, we would need to see a decline through 7132 to bring an end to the wider trend of higher lows, signalling the possible start of a major decline for the index.

UKX-4-hours-2022_09_20-07h16.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rebounds from support, but questions remain

The DAX has been on the front foot over the course of this week thus far, with price attempting to turn the tide on a painful week just gone for bulls.

This current push higher came off the back of a decline into the 12595 support level established on 5 September, with that threshold representing the key support level of note.

While we could see a short-term rebound, there is a good chance that the bears come back into play before long, with a move through the 13194 level required to bring about a more positive outlook.

Until then, there is a strong chance that price soon starts to roll over once again.

DAX-4-hours-2022_09_20-07h35.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq rebound looks unlikely to last

The Nasdaq has continued its bearish trend of late, with the protracted rebound seen in mid-September ultimately resolving in another sharp move lower.

The trend therefore kicks back into the pattern of lower highs and lows, with the current move higher expected to bring about a fresh bearish turn from here.

Given the fact that price currently stands around the deep Fibonacci zone of 61.8-76.4%, bearish positions are favoured unless price rises through the most recent swing-high of 12187.

NASDAQ-4-hours-2022_09_20-02h46.pngSource: ProRealTime
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All eyes on the Fed for FTSE 100, DAX 40, and S&P 500

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40, and S&P 500 ahead of Fed rate announcement.

FTSE 100Source: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 September 2022 

FTSE 100 slide nears early September low

The FTSE 100 is trading dangerously close to its 7,131 early September low ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate announcement.

Another 75-basis point rate (bps) hike is in the offing, but some market analysts expect as much as 100-basis points.

From a technical analysis perspective, since an Elliott wave A, B, and C zigzag correction ended at its 7,515 mid-September high, the 7,131 low is expected to soon give way with the June and July lows at 7,006 to 6,966 being eyed.

Short-term the FTSE 100 continues to hold along the breached one-month resistance line, now because of inverse polarity support line, which today comes in at 7,144, and also gets support from its two-year uptrend line at 7,183.

Minor resistance is seen around the 7,250 mark but while the next higher 6 September and Tuesday’s high as well as the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,324 to 7,347 cap, downside pressure should be maintained.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX remains under pressure ahead of Fed rate hike

The DAX 40’s swift sell-off from last Tuesday’s 13,570 high amid higher-than-expected US inflation pushed the index to near three-month lows ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement.

Not only will the size of the rate hike, whether 75- or 100-basis points, be closely watched but also the Fed’s forecast which matters most.

The index formed another bearish reversal candle, a Bearish Engulfing Day, on Tuesday and is now slipping towards its July lows between 12,432 and 12,386 as Russian president Putin signals the annexation of parts of Ukraine by supporting decisions made on “referendums” in Russian occupied territories.

A fall through the July trough at 12,386 would engage the 50% retracement of the pandemic bull market at 12,130. Minor resistance above the early September low at 12,596 can be spotted at the 12,706 August low.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 bearish ahead of FOMC rate announcement

The S&P 500 continues its near 7.5% slide from its 4,155 mid-September high towards its July low at 3,720 ahead of the Fed’s rate announcement amid fears that it will need to pursue a more aggressive tightening policy to combat inflation and thus push the US economy into a recession.

Another potential downside target is the 3,636 June low.

While the index remains below this week’s high at 3,918 on a daily chart closing basis, immediate downside pressure should remain in play.

Minor resistance below this level can be spotted around the early September low at 3,884.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 recover slightly following sharp losses

Indices fell sharply in the wake of the Fed decision, but have attempted to recover in early trading this morning.

BG_data_chart_stocks_indices_index_24324Source: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 September 2022 

FTSE 100 under pressure

The index is back to the early September lows around 7150, after its reversal yesterday.

Additional declines below 7130 would put the lows of the summer at 7040 into view as the next possible area of support.

If the price repeats the September bounce and holds support around 7150 then a short-term rebound may develop, targeting 7500.

Currently the index sits on two-year support from early February 2021. A break below this would mark a fresh bearish development.

FTSE_220922.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX hovers at summer low

The reversal on Wednesday put the index back towards the 12,500 lows that were last reached in July.

After the steep losses of the past two weeks, the index has a firm bearish outlook, but a defence of 12,500 might yet result in a bounce, although this would need a move back to 12,800. Even then, the run of lower highs since March means that the bearish view remains in place unless the price can top 13,600.

A move below 12,400 would open the way to 11,700, last seen in November 2021.

DAX_220922.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges up after losses

Two days of sharp losses have taken the index back to the July lows around 3750.

Additional declines target the June lows at 3640, and would mark the complete reversal of the gains from the June lows that peaked in August at 4300.

A recovery above 3900 would suggest a short-term low has been formed, potentially targeting the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3984, and then on to the 50-day SMA (currently 4044).

SPX_220922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 on track for second weekly loss

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as week comes to a close.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 September 2022

FTSE 100 drops to early September low

The FTSE 100 is once more approaching its 7,131 early September low following the Fed’s third 75-basis point rate hike in a row and the Bank of England’s (BoE) hike by 50-basis points to 2.25%, its highest level since the financial crisis in 2008.

With GfK Consumer Confidence falling to a record low of -49 in September compared to -44 in August, further downward pressure is being exerted on the index despite Friday’s mini-budget which promises to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis through tax cuts and energy caps for UK consumers to some extent.

From a technical analysis perspective, since an Elliott wave A, B, and C zigzag correction ended at its 7,515 mid-September high, the 7,131 low is expected to soon give way with the June and July lows at 7,006 to 6,966 being in focus.

A daily, and since its Friday also weekly, chart close by the FTSE 100 below its two-year uptrend line at 7,188 would have bearish implications and put the June and July lows at 7,006 to 6,966 back in the frame.

Minor resistance above the 8 September wave B low at 7,174 remains to be seen around the 7,250 mark.

While the next higher 6 September and Tuesday’s high as well as the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,324 to 7,346 cap, medium-term downside pressure should remain in play.

23092022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX continues its ordered descent as central banks continue to tighten

The DAX 40’s swift sell-off from last Tuesday’s 13,570 high is ongoing amid renewed rate hikes by several western central banks in the course of this week, further putting pressure on their economies and pushing these closer to a recession.

The DAX 40 index is still slipping towards its July lows between 12,432 and 12,386 as Russian president Putin imposes a draft and signals the annexation of parts of Ukraine by supporting decisions made on “referendums” in Russian occupied territories.

A fall through the July low at 12,386 would put the 50% retracement of the pandemic bull market at 12,130 on the map.

Minor resistance above the two-week downtrend line is seen at the early September low at 12,596 with further minor resistance being spotted at the 12,706 August low.

23092022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 tumbles towards June lows

The Nasdaq 100 has slipped to levels last seen in July following the Fed’s third consecutive 75-basis point rate hike as investors fret about the diminishing odds of a soft economic landing while the central bank is pursuing its aggressive monetary tightening policy to rein in soaring inflation.

The continued descent towards the June lows between 11,317 to 11,037 has so far taken the index to its 11,451 mid-July low.

Any potential short-term bounce is expected to encounter resistance at the mid-September 11,707 low. Further up sits more solid resistance between the June and early July highs at 12,180 to 12,227.

23092022NASDAQ-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 hold their ground in early trading

After recent losses indices are attempting to move higher, although the cautious outlook remains in place.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 September 2022 

FTSE 100 hovers at July support

The index is sitting right at the 7050 support zone, which held back in July.

A drop below 7000 marks a fresh bearish development, and would bring the 6874 level into view, last seen in March.

Given the recent run of losses we might perhaps expect a rebound of sorts to develop, although for this to happen we would need to see a recovery above 7060, and then on above 7120.

A longer-term bounce targets 7500 and then 7570, the highs from September and then August, respectively.

FTSE_260922.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX probes recent lows

There is little sign of a rebound here, with the index still close to Friday’s lows.

A move back above the February and June lows of 12,400 would help to provide a more short-term bullish view, although the broader bearish outlook remains in place.

Lower highs have been in place over recent months, so it would need a move above 13,500 to put a dent in this outlook.

Further declines target 11,700, eating into yet more of the post-Covid rebound.

DAX_260922.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges up off recent low

June’s lows have been reached, after a huge decline since late August. If this level holds then the index may yet be able to stage a short-term bounce, targeting 3800 and then on towards 3900.

The bigger bearish view remains intact however, given the lower high at 4127.

The next major level to watch is 3582, and then on below that down to 3400.

SPX_260922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 hold their ground in early trading

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 hold their ground in early trading.

1664344842332.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 September 2022 

FTSE 100 hovers at July support

The index is sitting right at the 7050 support zone, which held back in July.

A drop below 7000 marks a fresh bearish development, and would bring the 6874 level into view, last seen in March.

Given the recent run of losses we might perhaps expect a rebound of sorts to develop, although for this to happen we would need to see a recovery above 7060, and then on above 7120.

A longer-term bounce targets 7500 and then 7570, the highs from September and then August, respectively.

1664344842291.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX probes recent lows

There is little sign of a rebound here, with the index still close to Friday’s lows.

A move back above the February and June lows of 12,400 would help to provide a more short-term bullish view, although the broader bearish outlook remains in place.

Lower highs have been in place over recent months, so it would need a move above 13,500 to put a dent in this outlook.

Further declines target 11,700, eating into yet more of the post-Covid rebound.

1664344842303.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges up off recent low

June’s lows have been reached, after a huge decline since late August. If this level holds then the index may yet be able to stage a short-term bounce, targeting 3800 and then on towards 3900.

The bigger bearish view remains intact however, given the lower high at 4127.

The next major level to watch is 3582, and then on below that down to 3400.

1664344842313.pngSource: ProRealTime
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