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FTSE 100 moves higher but DAX and S&P 500 more mixed

While higher oil prices have helped the FTSE 100 move higher, the DAX and S&P 500 are under some pressure.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 May 2022 

FTSE 100 recovers 7600

The index’s gains ebbed away yesterday, starting off well but gradually diminishing as the day went on.

A lack of US markets meant that the index was lacking direction, and the impending UK long weekend for the Jubilee suggests that enthusiasm to drive the market higher will be in short supply.

But now that the European Union (EU) has agreed a broad ban on Russian oil imports, driving prices higher, the index’s oil heavyweights may help support further short-term upside.

The 6 May high at 7621 is the first obstacle to overcome, and beyond this the price targets 7657, the 21 April high, and then on to the 7690 peak from the beginning of April. This is also the peak from February, so a break above here provides a fresh bullish view.

A reversal below 7500 would see the price test the trendline resistance from the April high that it broke above last week, and then bring 7220 into view.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX hovers below 14,600

Over the past month, the index has enjoyed a healthy rally, creating higher highs, the last of which saw it return to the 14,600 high from mid-April.

Rebounding risk appetite in oversold markets was enough to generate a relief rally, although the caution around inflation and economic growth remains.

Traders will now watch to see if the price can push on towards the March high at 14,927, the next upside target. Crucially, the index has pulled away from trendline support from the May low, so it could potentially move back to 14,130 and surrender the gains of late last week, and yet still remain in an uptrend.

A drop below 14,000 would put it back below trendline support and argue for a fresh move to the downside that brings the May low at 13,274 into view.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 pauses after rally

The long-expected relief bounce materialised here last week, taking the index back towards 4200 from its 3900 lows.

Unsurprisingly, progress stalled on Monday with cash markets closed, but futures have broadly held their ground overnight. The bounce from oversold levels was, in a sense, the ‘easy’ part. Now indices in the US have to decide whether they can push on towards more overbought territory, and claw back more lost ground.

At present, the index risks creating a lower high, something that remains the case unless it can clear the 4300 area that proved to be such a barrier in late April and early May.

After the losses of the first months of 2022, many will be watching for a reversal to reignite the downward move. A drop below 4100 could provide this, with the mid-May high at 4093 an area to watch too.

It must be noted that, after the sharp bounce last Thursday and Friday, some form of consolidation might be in order for US markets, which might lead to choppy price action, but little progress in either direction.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices mixed as US earnings season draws to a close

Technical outlook on the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid record Eurozone inflation and the start of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 June 2022 

FTSE 100 still flirting with its early May high

The FTSE 100 continues to flirt with its early May high at 7,621 and targets the late April high at 7,657, as traders continue to speculate on how aggressive monetary tightening will need to be to lower global inflation and as China’s metropole Shanghai reopens after two months of lockdown ahead of the UK Queen’s Jubilee weekend which begins tomorrow.

An advance and daily chart close above the 7,657 21 April high would engage resistance between the 7,657 to 7,690 January 2020, February, and April 2021 highs which is expected to thwart the first attempt of a breakthrough. Above the 7,690 January 2020 peak lies the July 2019 high at 7,730.

Minor support below yesterday’s low at 7,572 comes in at the 7,545 mid-May high.

FSTE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 consolidates after Eurozone inflation hits record 8.1%

The recovery rally in the DAX 40 has taken a breather at 14,607 as investors digest yesterday’s Eurozone inflation data which has hit its highest level since the creation of the Euro at 8.1% in the year to May, piling pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike its rates and move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy.

A minor retracement back towards previous resistance, because of inverse polarity now support, at the early and mid-May highs at 14,315 to 14,282 may thus ensue.

Further down meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 14,162 and the one-month support line at 14,140, both of which may also act as support, if reached at all that is.

A rise above this week’s high at 14,607 would open the way for major resistance at 14,840 to 14,927 to be reached. It consists of a previous key support area, made up of the May 2021 to February 2022 lows, before being slipped through when, due to inverse polarity, it changed to a major resistance zone.

Just like in late March, when it triggered the sell-off to the May trough, the 14,840 to 14,927 resistance zone is expected to once again cap when first revisited. Above it the 200-day SMA can be seen at 15,082.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 tests support zone as first quarter earnings season draws to a close

The S&P 500’s swift recovery rally from its May low at 3,811 has so far taken it to this week’s high at 4,203 on the Daily Financial Bet (DFB), while the US cash market was shut for Memorial Day on Monday, before retracing lower as the first quarter earnings season draws to a close.

The index has so far slid back to but held at the 4,142 to 4,097 support area as market participants await US manufacturing and construction spending data for May on Wednesday, which also marks the start of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet reduction.

The 4,142 to 4,097 support zone contains the February-to-March lows and the mid-May high. As such it is likely to again hold the downside today, just like yesterday. If not, a slip to the 2 May low at 4,062 may unfold.

Provided that the mid-May high at 4,097 acts as support on a daily chart closing basis, the last few days' uptrend should remain intact with the 55-day SMA and early May high at 4,274 to 4,308 remaining in focus.

This resistance area needs to be exceeded for a medium-term bullish trend reversal to gain traction and for the 200-day SMA at 4,455 to eventually be reached.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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Stronger start to European markets after losing week on Wall Street

Technical outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 after Friday’s non-farm payrolls data.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 June 2022 

FTSE 100 bullish while above 7,518

The FTSE 100 is seen heading back up towards its early and late May highs at 7,621 to 7,649, slightly above which the late April high can be spotted at 7,657, after a losing week on Wall Street and the UK coming back from a four-day Queen’s Jubilee weekend.

Traders continue to speculate on how aggressive monetary tightening will need to be to lower global inflation, but the FTSE 100 index will remain bullish while it trades above last week’s low at 7,518.

An advance and daily chart close above the 7,657 21 April high would engage resistance between the 7,657 to 7,690 January 2020, February, and April 2021 highs which is expected to thwart the first attempt of a breakthrough.

Above the 7,690 January 2020 peak lies the July 2019 high at 7,730.

FTE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX targets 14,840 to 14,927 zone while 14,282 underpins

The DAX 40, despite being shut today for Pentecost Monday, remains bid as China continues to remove tight Covid-19 restrictions after a two-month long lockdown ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, having last week slid back to but then bounced off the 14,315 to 14,282 support area which consists of the early and mid-May highs.

A rise above last week’s high at 14,643 would open the way for the major 14,840 to 14,927 resistance zone to be reached. It represents a previous key support area, made up of the May 2021 to February 2022 lows, which was slipped through in late February and which, due to inverse polarity, acted as resistance in late March.

Above it meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,603.

Strong support remains to be seen between the early and mid-May as well as last week’s low at 14,315 to 14,282. While it holds, a bullish bias is being maintained.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 tests support zone as first quarter earnings season draws to a close

The S&P 500 took a hit on Friday as a robust jobs report bolstered the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive monetary policy stance to try to combat soaring inflation, making the index drop 1.2% last week.

Investors took the strong non-farm payroll (NFP) data, which showed the US economy added a higher than expected 390,000 jobs in May, to mean that the Fed will stick to its course of aggressive tightening.

From a technical perspective the swift recovery rally from its May low at 3,811 in the S&P 500 index has further to run, provided that it remains above last week’s low at 4,074 on a daily chart closing basis.

A rise above last week’s high at 4,203 on the Daily Financial Bet (DFB) would engage the 55-day SMA and early May high at 4,263 to 4,308. This resistance area needs to be exceeded, for a medium-term bullish trend reversal to gain traction and for the 200-day SMA at 4,449 to eventually be reached.

A slip through and daily chart close below Friday’s and last week’s lows at 4,099 to 4,074 would not bode well for the bulls, though, and could trigger a sell-off towards the minor psychological 4,000 mark.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for recovery

Indices failed to hold their gains yesterday, but have attempted to recover in early trading this morning.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 June 2022 

FTSE 100 stuck below 7600

A brief bounce yesterday saw the index once again attempt to move on above 7600.

However, as with previous attempts in the past week the index was unable to hold on to the bounce, and has slipped back below 7600.  As yet the price has not fallen below 7518, last week’s lows. A broader risk-off move will see this tested, and potentially broken, which would open the way to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7350.

A more bullish view still requires a close back above 7600, which for now eludes the index, capping gains in the short-term.

FTSE_070622.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX still holding bullish pattern

While the index was unable to hold all its gains yesterday, it has remained relatively bullish, holding on to its pattern of higher highs and higher lows seen over the past few sessions.

Higher lows at 14,456 and 14,432 need to be broken to the downside to suggest that a turn lower is at hand. This would potentially mark the beginning of a test of trendline support around 14,420, which would then risk a move back towards the May lows at 13,280, assuming another selloff develops.

Short-term gains continue to target the 200-day SMA at 15,056, once the late March high at 14,940 has been breached.

DAX_070622.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 struggles in early trading

After Friday’s losses and a failure to hold gains yesterday, the index looks at risk of a turn lower.

The past week has seen the index attempt to resume the move higher from the mid-May lows, but instead a see-saw period has resulted.

The 4070 area needs to be broken to the downside to signal that the price is headed back in the direction of the May lows. Should 4070 hold as support then the buyers need to breach 4190 in order to revive the move higher.

The 50-day SMA at 4225 comes into play first, followed by the late-April/early-May highs at 4300.

SPX_070622.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices remain bid ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting

Technical outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of the ECB meeting and US CPI data.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 June 2022 

FTSE 100 approaches key long-term resistance zone

The FTSE 100 continues to gradually rise, shrugging off the UK Conservative Party’s confidence vote in its prime minister, Boris Johnson, in which 41% of ministers of parliament (MP) voted against his leadership, and weaker than expected British in-store and online retail sales which declined by 1.5% in May because of rising living costs versus an expected +0.2%.

The index is approaching key long-term resistance at 7,648 to 7,690 which is likely to thwart any further advance, at least in the course of this week. It consists of the January 2020 as well as this year’s February, April, May and current June highs.

Having said that, while global risk-on sentiment retains the upper hand, as it has done for the past couple of weeks, and while last week’s low at 7,518 underpins on a daily chart closing basis, overall upside pressure should be maintained.

An advance and daily chart close above the 7,690 January 2020 peak would engage the July 2019 high at 7,730.

Failure at the 7,518 on a daily chart closing basis may lead to another down leg taking shape with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the March-to-June uptrend line at 7,350 to 7,316 being back in the picture.

Provided that yesterday’s low at 7,571 holds, though, immediate upside pressure remains in play.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX remains bullish and eyes Monday’s high at 14,712

The DAX 40 continues to rise as China opens up its economy after a two-month long lockdown and ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, having last week slid back to but then bounced off the 14,315 to 14,282 support area which contains the early and mid-May highs.

A rise above Monday’s high at 14,712 would lead to the major 14,840 to 14,927 resistance are being targeted. It represents a previous key support area, made up of the May 2021 to February 2022 lows, which was slipped through in late February and which, due to inverse polarity, acted as resistance in late March.

Above it meanders the 200-day SMA at 15,050. Strong support remains to be seen between the early and mid-May as well as last week’s low at 14,315 to 14,282. While it holds, a bullish bias remains in play.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to range trade but is once again pointing higher towards its late May high at 33,460 as investors look ahead to Friday’s US consumer price index reading for May.

Slightly above the late May high meanders the 55-day SMA at 33,513 and much further up sits the key 34,181 to 34,059 resistance area which consists of the late February and early March as well as the early May highs.

Immediate support continues to be seen between the 32,756 mid-May high and last week’s low at 32,512. While it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the bulls remain in control.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices taking a knock ahead of ECB meeting

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of ECB rate decision.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 June 2022 

FTSE 100 rejected by key long-term resistance zone

The FTSE 100 has been rejected by its key long-term resistance at 7,648 to 7,690 which consists of the January 2020 as well as this year’s February, April, May and current June highs as the UK was predicted to be the worst performing economy in G7 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In its Economic Outlook on Wednesday the OECD lowered its 2022 global growth forecast to 3% due to the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and a two-month long lockdown in China. Many of the hardest-hit countries are in Europe, which is highly exposed to the war through energy imports and refugee flows with the UK faring among the worst in terms of growth forecasts.

The current May low at 7,518 is back in sight, a slip through which on a daily chart closing basis may lead to another down leg being witnessed with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the March-to-June uptrend line at 7,355 to 7,316 potentially being back in the frame.

Minor resistance now sits at this week’s highs at 7,637 to 7,647 and only a currently unexpected advance and daily chart close above the 7,690 January 2020 peak would engage the July 2019 high at 7,730.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX slips back to 14,315 to 14,282 support area ahead of ECB meeting

The DAX 40 continues to slide from Monday’s 14,712 high after Wednesday’s OECD Economic Outlook lowered its 2022 global growth forecast to 3% due to the war in Ukraine which has greatly impacted Germany due to its reliance on Russian oil and gas. Investors also await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting and press conference.

The DAX has thus dropped back to support seen between the early and mid-May as well as last week’s low at 14,315 to 14,282. If fallen through on a daily chart closing basis, the 55-day SMA at 14,174 would be eyed next, below which the mid-April and 25 May lows can be spotted at 13,882 to 13,869.

For the May uptrend to resume, a rise above Monday’s high at 14,712 needs to be seen, in which case the major 14,840 to 14,927 resistance area would be back in the picture. It represents a previous key support area, made up of the May 2021 to February 2022 lows, which was slipped through in late February and which, due to inverse polarity, acted as resistance in late March. Above it meanders the 200-day SMA at 15,050.

Dax 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 trades sideways ahead of US CPI data

The Nasdaq 100’s recovery off its one-year low at 11,490 seems to have stalled at its early June high at 12,942 with the index having range traded ever since whilst market participants await the publication of US consumer price index (CPI) data for May on Friday.

The index continues to oscillate around a previous support line which dates back to the February and March lows. It remains bullish while this week’s low at 12,411 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

If high inflation and growth fears were to push the Nasdaq 100 through the 12,411 low on a daily chart closing basis, a tumble back towards the 9 May low at 12,102 may ensue.

A rise above yesterday’s high at 12,778 would probably lead to the late May high at 12,880 being reached, above which the early June high can be found at 12,942.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 all under selling pressure again

Stocks are heading lower once more, suffering from risk aversion as investors fret about the outlook for earnings.

BG_data_chart_stocks_indices_index_24324Source: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 10 June 2022 

FTSE 100 retreat intensifies

The past two days marked the latest failure of the index to push on above 7600.

A gloomier outlook from the World Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has made investors more cautious once again, a view reinforced by yesterday’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision and renewed lockdowns in China.

Additional declines target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7355 and then the March-June rising trendline just below it. Beyond this the index looks to the 7220 area, last seen in early May.

A more positive view requires a recovery of losses and a firm close above 7650 in order to suggest that another attempt at the 7700 area is in progress.

FTSE_100622.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX drops in wake of ECB

The risk-off atmosphere has taken the DAX lower over the past 48 hours, pushing it back below rising trendline support from the May low. In addition, the price has slipped back below the 50-day SMA, if only just, adding to the broadly bearish outlook.

The next targets on the downside become 13,826, support during the May move higher, and then 13,600 and then the May low at 13,274.

If the price can find support at the first two of these levels then a higher low may yet form, but the broader macro picture still points towards a renewed selloff.

DAX_100622.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 heads lower

After two weeks of indecisive trading that saw plenty of intraday swings but little actual directional movement, the index fell sharply yesterday.

The swift rebound from the May low had stalled throughout the second half of the month, and with cuts to growth forecasts from major institutions it looks like sellers have found the catalysts for a move to the downside once again.

Support levels at 3963, 3919 and 3860 now come into play, followed up by the May low at 3810. Buyers might be encouraged by a recovery back above the early June 7080 level, but a bigger recovery requires a move back above 4100.

SPX_100622.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices fall out of bed amid global risk-off sentiment

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of a plethora of rate decisions.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 June 2022 

FTSE 100 drops to May low

Last week the FTSE 100 was rejected by its key long-term resistance zone at 7,648 to 7,690 which consists of the January 2020 as well as this year’s February, April, May and current June highs as the UK was predicted to be the worst performing economy in G7 by the World Bank and then the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Pushing the FTSE 100 still lower was the release of unexpected 40-year high US inflation data on Friday, increased by 1% from last month and by 8.6% on a year-on-year basis which led to global risk-off sentiment as traders worry about a more hawkish policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Today the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned of an increasing UK recession risk which has made the FTSE 100 open lower still and means that the index is fast approaching its 7,157 May low, a slip through which would push the March trough at 6,764 to the fore.

Minor resistance comes in along the breached four-month support line and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,341 to 7,355.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX falls like a stone towards its 13,275 May low

The DAX 40 continues to rapidly fall from last Monday’s 14,712 high after Wednesday’s OECD Economic Outlook lowered its 2022 global growth forecast to 3% due to the war in Ukraine which has greatly impacted Germany amid its reliance on Russian oil and gas.

Last week’s European Central Bank (ECB) statement in which it mentioned a rate hike in July and an end to its asset purchase programme in June, together with a 40-year high in US inflation data out on Friday, led to further declines towards the May low at 13,275 taking place. Failure there would engage the March low at 12,432.

Resistance comes in at this week’s gap with Friday’s low at 13,681 to 13,743 and at the 13,868 25 May low.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 gaps lower

The Nasdaq 100’s recovery off its one-year low at 11,490 ended at its early June high at 12,942 with the index having since dropped back close to its 11,490 May low, accelerating to the downside in the past three days.

This was on the back of stronger than expected US consumer price index (CPI) data which came in at a 40-year high at a higher than expected 8.6% on Friday, leading to global risk-off sentiment and pushing equity markets around the world lower.

A large gap between Friday’s low and this morning’s pre-market open has so far formed at 11,822 to 11,643 as Asian equity indices dropped as well, with the May low at 11,490 thus being within reach today ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

A daily chart close below 11,490 would engage the significant 11,072 to 10,677 support area which encompasses the July 2020 high, September and November 2020 lows as well as the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

Minor resistance today comes in at this week’s 11,822 to 11,643 gap.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 move off their lows following on from Thursday’s falls

Indices have edged higher, but the falls yesterday seem to suggest that the overall downtrend remains intact.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 June 2022 

FTSE 100 rallies off its low

The index fell sharply yesterday, falling to its lowest level since March and heading towards the 7000 level. The next target to watch is the 7000 level, the price having fallen below the 11 March closing low of 7053.

A broader recovery would require a move back above the early May lows at 7155, and then above 7240, which may well help the index to stabilise and perhaps renew its move towards 7600.

A fall below 7000 opens the way to 6763, the low from March.

FTSE_170622.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX bounces back above 13,000

After Wednesday’s small recovery the index has resumed its falls, dropping back along with other equity markets globally, and helped along by the surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank.

Thursday’s drop carried the price back to 12,954, the lowest level since early March. Below this, the next level to watch is 12,405, the low from the March selloff.

If a bounce does materialise, then the price needs to move back above 13,300, the low from early May, and then move above 13,601, in order to provide a more solid footing for another rally towards the June high.

DAX_170622.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges up after losses

US markets remain under heavy pressure, and the S&P 500’s weighting of tech stocks has meant that it is suffering impressive losses once again.

The index finds itself below 3692, the low from January 2021, and additional losses from here risk taking it towards 3397. This is the pre-pandemic high, and below this 3220 comes into view.

A bounce back above 3700 would then look towards 3860, 3919 and then 3963.

SPX_170622.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100 and DAX move up as Dow futures hold steady

European markets are attempting to move higher this morning, while US cash markets are closed for a bank holiday.

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 June 2022 

FTSE 100 recovers back above 7000

An attempt to rebound on Friday fizzled out as the index dropped sharply back below 7100 in the afternoon session. Worries about global growth had driven the index lower on Thursday, wiping around 250 points off in a torrid session.

Early trading this morning saw the index fall back below 7000, but only briefly, but it still managed to tough its lowest level in over three months.

Additional declines target the March low down at 6763, while a short-term rebound needs to clear Friday’s high at 7130 to suggest a low has been formed for now.

FTSE_200622.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX aims to build on Friday’s bounce

This index was able to hold its small gains on Friday, rallying back above 13,000, and so far this morning the move higher has continued.

From here additional upside targets 13,600, and then on to 13,826 and 14,134. Buyers will have to recoup most of the ground lost since the June high to avoid creating the grounds for a lower high and a reversal.

Fresh declines back below 12,954 bring the March lows around 12,470 into view.

DAX_200622.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow futures hold steady

US cash markets are closed today for the Juneteenth holiday, but the futures remain open.

The index hit a fresh lower low last week, falling to its lowest level since December 2020 and putting it on the cusp of entering its own ‘official’ bear market.

There are as yet no signs that the index is about to begin a bounce, but if one does materialise then the initial target would be 31,000, followed on by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32,700.

Further declines below 29,560 would bring 29,200 and 28,950 into play, the September and October 2020 highs.

Dow_200622.png
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DAX, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 all move higher as risk appetite recovers

Indices have been consumed by a wave of bargain hunting, which has seen them make gains in early trading.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 June 2022 

DAX rebound gathers pace

The index made headway yesterday, rallying back above 13,200, while additional gains target 13,600.

After the heavy losses since the middle of June, a rebound could now be in progress, helped by the move higher in daily stochastics.

A more longer-term move to the upside would head towards 13,826, and then on towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 13,984.

Sellers will want to see a reversal back to 13,000, to open the way to additional downside below the 12,954 support level.

DAX_210622.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 looks to build on rebound

The index slumped to its lowest level since November 2020 last week, marking a further impressive decline from the highs of December. Fresh rate rises by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations of more continue to hit the highly-valued stocks in this index.

For now the price has stabilised, bouncing from last week’s low, but it has now returned to trendline resistance from the April highs. This had been briefly broken in June, but the price dropped back below it in the middle of the month.

Additional gains above 11,500 would mark a break of trendline resistance, and then above 11,574 the price will have moved above horizontal resistance, bringing the 50-day SMA at 12,586 and then the June peak at 12,944 into view.

A move back below 11,000 will then put the index on course for 10,676, the September 2020 low. Another key level below this would be 9752, the pre-pandemic high.

NDX_210622.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225 bounce gathers pace

The index returned towards the 25,532 level last week, but has now begun a bounce that has already carried it back above the 26,000 mark. Global risk appetite appears to be in recovery mode, at least in the short-term.

Additional gains above 26,300 would target 27,000, and then on towards the 200-day SMA at 27,565, while beyond this the March and June peak at 28,408 comes back into view.

A fall below 25,532 once again would then open the way to the March low at 24,505.

Nikkei_210622.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices back under pressure as rebound falters

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of Fed chair's Congress testimony.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 June 2022 

FTSE 100 slips again on recession fears

Following on the back of weaker Asian markets, hit by a Goldman Sachs recession warning, the FTSE 100 has begun to trade lower this morning after yesterday’s largest UK-wide train strike in 30-years, giving back some of its last couple of days’ gains.

The index’s minor recovery from last week’s three month low at 6,966 has so far managed to take it to yesterday’s 7,193 intraday high. While below it, the recent downtrend remains firmly entrenched.

A drop through 6,966 and the 6,946 October 2021 low on a daily chart closing basis would lead to the March trough at 6,764 being back in the frame.

Today resistance sits between the May low and yesterday’s high at 7,157 to 7,193.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX slips on recession worries

The DAX 40’s minor bounce off last week’s 12,944 low seems to have run out of steam at yesterday’s high at 13,444 with the index opening lower today and seen heading back down towards the 12,944 trough as worries of slowing demand and a possible recession weigh on the index.

A fall through last week’s low at 12,944 could lead to the March low at 12,432 being back in play.

For the current downward pressure to diminish a bullish reversal would need to take the DAX 40 to above yesterday’s high at 13,444 and ideally also above the mid-June high at 13,676. It was made within the 13,681 to 13,743 gap.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 back under pressure ahead of Powell’s appearance before Congress

The Nasdaq 100’s minor bounce off its one-year low at 11,037 ran out of steam at yesterday’s high at 11,640 ahead of Wednesday and Thursday’s appearance before the US Congress by the Fed chair, Jerome Powell.

Goldman Sachs' announcement that the risk of the US slipping into a recession within a year has doubled after last week’s aggressive 75 basis point Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike also thwarted the recent minor recovery in US equity markets.

While the original June gap seen between 11,643 and 11,822 remains open, downside pressure is likely to prevail. A drop through and daily chart close below last week’s 11,037 low would be expected to push it deeper into the significant 11,072 to 10,677 support area which encompasses the July 2020 high, September and November 2020 lows as well as the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

Provided that last week’s low at 11,037 underpins, the left over 11,755 to 11,822 gap may still get filled and perhaps the 20 May high at 12,092 be reached.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices mixed amid Fed chair Congress testimony

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid Fed chair's Congress testimony.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 June 2022 

FTSE 100 mixed after 40-year high inflation

With Asian equity markets mostly in positive territory following a day of gains on Wall Street, the FTSE 100 is trading close to Wednesday’s cash session, having slipped on 40-year high UK inflation at 9.1% year-on-year, the country’s largest rail strike in 30-years and amid recession fears.

The index managed to find support at 7,030, above last week’s three-month low at 6,966, though. As long as it holds, a recovery back towards this week’s high at 7,193 may take place. While it caps, the recent downtrend remains firmly entrenched, however.

A drop through 6,966 and the 6,946 October 2021 low on a daily chart closing basis would lead to the March trough at 6,764 being back in the frame.

Today resistance sits between the May low and yesterday’s high at 7,157 to 7,193.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX tries to stabilise short-term

The DAX 40’s slip back towards last week’s 12,944 low took it to 12,967 on Wednesday before an attempt of a recovery began which has been partially thwarted by a warning by US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, that a US recession is possible, dragging European markets lower.

A fall through last week’s low at 12,944 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the March low at 12,432 being eyed. While the 12,967 to 12,944 support area underpins, though, and once the one-month downtrend line at 13,178 has been bettered, the 14 June low at 13,220 should be revisited on the way to this week’s high at 13,444.

For the current downward pressure to diminish a bullish reversal would need to take the DAX 40 to above yesterday’s high at 13,444 and ideally also above the mid-June high at 13,676 which was made within the 13,681 to 13,743 gap.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 tries to stabilise despite Fed chair warning of recession ‘possibility’

The S&P 500’s gradual recovery from its 3,636 current mid-June low has so far taken it close to its May low at 3,811 despite Powell evoking the possibility of a US recession in his testimony before Congress on Wednesday which is going to continue on Thursday.

While Wednesday’s low at 3,690 holds, the 3,811 May low is expected to be reached with the 12 May low at 3,860 being next in line. Further resistance can be spotted at the gap left open at 3,855 to 3,897.

Failure at 3,690 on a daily chart closing basis would put the current June low at 3,636 back into contention.

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European indices helped by stronger US and Asian markets

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow post Fed chair Congress testimony.

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 June 2022 

FTSE 100 tries to rally into week end

Stronger Asian equity markets on the back of another positive session on Wall Street have helped the FTSE 100 recover and may snap the index’s three-week losing streak as UK inflation hit a 40-year high amid the country's largest rail strike in 30-years.

The index managed to find support at 6,992 on Thursday, above last week’s three-month low at 6,966. As long as it underpins, a gradual recovery back towards this week’s high at 7,193 may take place. While it caps, the recent downtrend remains firmly entrenched, though.

A slip through 6,966 and the 6,946 October 2021 low on a daily chart closing basis would target the March low at 6,764.

Today resistance sits between the May low and yesterday’s high at 7,157 to 7,193.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX remains under pressure

The DAX 40 is flirting with last week’s 12,944 low, having so far dipped to 12,839 on Thursday ahead of Friday’s German ifo Business Climate for June which came in at a weaker than expected 92.3 versus an anticipated 92.8 and 93.0 in May.

A fall through this week’s low at 12,839 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the March low at 12,432 being revisited. While the 12,944 to 12,839 support area underpins, though, and once the one-month downtrend line at 13,052 has been exceeded, the 14 June low at 13,220 may be retested on the way to this week’s high at 13,444.

For the current downward pressure to diminish a bullish reversal would need to take the DAX 40 to above this week’s high at 13,444 and ideally also above the mid-June high at 13,676 which was made within the 13,681 to 13,743 gap.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow continues its gradual advance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to gradually advance towards its 31,146 to 31,381 gap, now that it has overcome its May low at 30,637. This as the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Jerome Powell, said in his testimony to Congress that there is a possibility of a recession in the US and that his commitment to bringing down price increases is “unconditional.”

On the way up minor resistance can be spotted at the 31,016 mid-June high. Support below the May trough at 30,637 comes in at the 14 June low at 30,142 and also at the 22 June low at 30,016.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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European indices up as concerns of faster rate hikes ease

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow after last week’s bullish reversals.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 June 2022 

Recovery rally underway in FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 begins the week on a stronger footing on the back of last week’s firm recovery rally in US and Asian equity markets which snapped their recent three-week losing streaks as UK inflation hit a 40-year high amid its largest rail strike in 30-years which ended on Saturday.

The index managed to find support at 6,992 on Thursday, not far above its previous week’s three months low at 6,966, before rising and closing above its 21 June high at 7,193 on Friday as investors bought stocks at lower levels and worried less about future rate hikes.

A short-term bottom has thus been confirmed by Friday’s bullish reversal with the 16 June high and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,331 to 7,359 now being in focus.

Slips may find support between the June 21 high at 7,193, the May low at 7,157 and the 14 June low at 7,135.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX is trying to stabilise

Last week the DAX 40 dipped below its previous week’s 12,944 low by falling to 12,839 on Thursday ahead of Friday’s German ifo Business Climate for June which came in at a weaker than expected 92.3 versus an anticipated 92.8 and 93.0 in May, before recovering in line with European, US and Asian equity markets.

Since last week’s low has not been accompanied by a negative reading of the daily 9-period Relative Strength Index (RSI), positive divergence can be made out on the daily candlestick chart. This increases the odds of a bullish reversal taking shape, but for this to happen, a rise and daily chart close above the 21 June high at 13,444 will need to be witnessed.

Ideally the mid-June high at 13,676, which was made within the 13,681 to 13,743 gap, should be overcome as well. A fall through last week’s low at 12,839 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the March low at 12,432 being revisited.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow sees significant rebound

The Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerated higher on Friday and from a technical perspective, importantly, closed its 31,146 to 31,381 June gap as concerns of higher and faster rate hikes eased. This after the University of Michigan released US longer-term consumer inflation expectations, which settled back from a 14-year high.

The February and March lows as well as the April-to-June downtrend line at 32,234 to 32,340 are in focus for this week. Slips should find support at the 31,227 12 May low, the 30,377 13 June high and also to the 31,016 15 June high.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 moving higher after Monday indecision

The new week began with hesitancy in the indices, but some of that is being reversed in early trading.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 June 2022 

FTSE 100 targeting 50-day SMA

After moving back above the 7230 level the index looks poised for additional gains.

The next areas to watch will be the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7361 and then the 50-day SMA (currently 7398), as the index makes further headway. Risk appetite continues to recover, helping the index to maintain a stronger outlook for the time being.

It would take a reversal below 7150 to suggest a return to the lows of 7000 in early June is on the cards.

FTSE_280622.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX looks to reverse Monday’s indecision

An attempt to continue the rally from Friday’s session ran into difficulty yesterday. The price moved higher initially but then found itself subject to heavy selling pressure as it neared 13,400.

However, buyers have arrived today to stabilise the situation, and with this now pushing up the price another attempt to move on above 13,300 and then 13,400 may develop. From here the highs of mid-June at 13,600, and then the 50-day SMA (currently 13,883), come into play.

This view would be cancelled out with a move back below 13,000, handing the initiative back to the sellers.

DAX_280622.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 aims for further gains

After Friday’s surge an indecisive day such as we saw on Monday was not exactly surprising.

However, futures have recovered as the new day begins and a fresh move to the upside could be in play. This has been helped along by the lack of any more surprises in regard to inflation.

The index of course remains in a firm downtrend, but there is still some space for additional upside, not least towards the 50-day SMA at 4026. Beyond this, the May/June lower highs that peaked at 4184 come into view.

As yet there is no sign of a reversal, but a drop back below 3800 would certainly provide a stronger bearish view that might imply a return to the June lows at 3635.

SPX_280622.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Cautiousness returns to European indices

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as recent winning streak ends.

indicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 June 2022 

FTSE 100 recovery rally stalls

The FTSE 100 has retreated after having reached and been capped by its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,362 on Tuesday as UK barristers walked out of courts in strike over pay with further train, tube, bus and airport strikes coming in the summer.

The FTSE 100 is likely to consolidate below the 200-day SMA at 7,362 today with minor support coming in at the 7,226 19 May low. Slightly further down lies the 21 June high at 7,193.

Despite today’s setback a short-term bottom has been confirmed by Friday’s bullish reversal with the 55-day SMA at 7,411 remaining in focus.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX still trying to stabilise

The DAX 40 remains below last week’s high at 13,444 but above its recent lows at 12,944 to 12,839 as economic concerns continue to weigh on sentiment and disappointing US consumer confidence data weigh on the index.

Since last week’s low has not been accompanied by a negative reading of the daily 9-period Relative Strength Index (RSI), positive divergence can still be made out on the daily candlestick chart. This increases the odds of a bullish reversal taking shape, but for this to happen, a rise and daily chart close above the 21 June high at 13,444 will need to be witnessed. Ideally the mid-June high at 13,676, which was made within the 13,681 to 13,743 gap, should be overcome as well.

A fall through last week’s low at 12,839 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the March low at 12,432 being revisited.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 retreats on disappointing consumer confidence index reading

The S&P 500’s recovery rally from its 3,636 current mid-June low has taken it to yesterday’s high at 3,946 before the index swiftly came off again as the US consumer confidence index came in at a weaker than expected reading of 98.7 for June compared to estimates of between 100 to 103 and versus the previous month’s revised 103.2 (from 106.40).

The 3,811 May low is thus back within reach but may offer short-term support. If not, we would have to allow for the 14 June low at 3,706 to perhaps be back in play.

While last Wednesday’s low at 3,690 underpins, however, renewed upside could be seen. Failure at 3,690 on a daily chart closing basis would put the current June low at 3,636 back on the plate, though. 

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices under pressure as first half draws to a close

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 on last trading day of the month.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 June 2022 

FTSE 100 slips on last day of June

The FTSE 100 is further coming off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,363 on the last trading day of the month and first half of the year. This is in line with the US 500 which is heading for its worst half-year since 1970 amid soaring inflation, aggressive monetary policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The FTSE 100 is likely to slip to the 21 June high at 7,193 below which further support can be found at the 7,157 May low and also at the 7,134 14 June low.

Good resistance can now be seen between the mid-June and this week’s highs at 7,331 to 7,362.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX continues its slide

The DAX 40 continues its descent towards the March low at 12,432, having slid through last week’s low at 12,839 despite better-than-expected German June preliminary consumer price index (CPI) data which came in at 0.1% month-on-month versus an expected 0.4% and 0.9% in May.

Immediate resistance is seen at the 16 June low at 12,944 today and then along the two-month downtrend line at 13,180.

The index will remain in a bearish trend while it stays below its last relative high, i.e. when a daily candlestick high is made at a higher high than that on the candle to its left and to its right. In this case it is the 27 June high at 13,383.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 slips at first-half year draws to a close

The Nasdaq 100’s minor bounce off its one-year low at 11,037 ran out of steam at this week’s high at 12,227 with it heading down towards the 22 June low at 11,286 as Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, reiterated the need to combat inflation even if it meant risking “some pain.”

US equity indices face heading to their worst first half of the year since 1970 amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, 40-year high inflation and recession worries.

Minor support below the 22 June low at 11,286 comes in at the 14 June low at 11,203 and more significant support at the current June trough at 11,037.

Minor resistance can be spotted between the mid-May low at 11,688 and the mid-June high at 11,755. Further up the April-to-June downtrend line can be seen at 12,065 and this week’s high at 12,227.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 all suffering losses

It was a tough first half for most global markets, but the second half has not begun well either, with stocks under pressure again.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_9887897.jpSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 01 July 2022 

FTSE 100 heading lower again

Thursday’s sharp falls meant that the index has firmly joined the likes of the DAX and S&P 500 in heading lower once again. Global risk-off sentiment has surged again this week, just as quickly as it seemed to disappear a week ago.

After finding the going tough earlier in the week, the index fell back from 7300 yesterday. Earlier in the week the price had been unable to sustain gains above this level, and Thursday’s move marked an impressive reversal. Additional losses in morning trading mean that the 7000 level is back in view once again.

Buyers will need a strong bounce back above 7300 to reverse this view.

FTSE_010722.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX sets its sights on March low

Fresh concerns about European growth and earnings have hit the DAX this week, prompting a renewed drop below 13,000 and taking it to a four-month low.

A return to the lows of March just below 12,500 now seems highly likely, barring a sharp recovery today that reverses the renewed bearish view. Below this the next big levels to watch are 11,700, the low from June 2020, and then the October 2020 low at 11,330.

There is little sign of any real bounce beginning to materialise, but if one does occur it will need to move back above 13,000, and then ideally above 13,190, if it is to suggest a low has been formed.

DAX_010722.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 on the back foot after torrid first half

After its worst start to the year since 1970, falling just over 20%, the S&P 500 seems poised for more losses, which will take it back to its June low.

Below the 3640 low from last month the index will head towards the September 2020 peak at 3587, followed on by the October 2020 peak at 3544. From here the pre-pandemic record high of 3397 comes into view.

The strong bearish view would be reversed to an extent if the price can move back above the May support level of 3860, and then on above 3920.

SPX_010722.pngSource: ProRealTime
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European indices try to recover as US shut for Independence Day

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 as German Trade Balance shows first deficit since reunification.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 July 2022 

FTSE 100 tries to recover on the back of stronger Asian markets

The FTSE 100 is seen holding above last week’s low at 7,100 on the back of generally stronger Asian markets on bargain hunting and amid closed US markets for Independence Day. The two-month resistance line at 7,288 represents a possible upside target.

Key resistance above it comes in at the 7,331 to 7,362 mid- to late June highs as well as along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,365. This area would need to be exceeded, for a medium-term bottom to be formed.

Slips may find support between the 21 June high at 7,193 below which further support can be found at the 7,157 May low and also at the 14 June low at 7,134.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX bounces off last week’s low despite first trade deficit since 1991

The DAX 40 continues its recovery rally from last week’s low at 12,617, made not far above its March low at 12,432, despite a much weaker than expected German Trade Balance reading which came in at -€1 billion in May versus an expected €1.2b and €3.5b in April.

It appears to be the first trade deficit since German reunification in 1991.

Immediate resistance is seen along the two-month downtrend line at 13,002 with the May low at 13,275 representing the next upside target. Having said that, the index will remain in a bearish trend while it stays below its last relative high, i.e. when a daily candlestick high is made at a higher high than that on the candle to its left and to its right.

In this case it is the 27 June high at 13,383 and since it is close by, the 21 June high at 13,444 as well. Only if these highs were to be exceeded, would a bullish reversal be confirmed.

Minor support is seen at the 23 June low at 12,839 and more significant support at last week’s low at 12,617 below which lies the March low key support at 12,432.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Euro Stoxx 50 stages recovery rally

The Euro Stoxx 50 has taken its lead from Asian markets overnight and is trying to recover further from Friday’s 3,406 low, made marginally above its mid-June low at 3,401, whilst targeting the one-month resistance line at 3,512 and the 21 June high at 3,524.

On the way up lies the May low at 3,493. If, however, a fall and daily chart close below the recent lows at 3,406 to 3,401 were to ensue, the March trough at 3,388 would probably also be slid through with the October 2020 high at 3,311 being targeted.

Euro Stoxx 50Source: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for gains as US returns from holiday

The return of US markets from their holiday has led to some volatility in early trading.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 July 2022 

FTSE 100 shaky in early trading

Over the past two sessions the index has clambered higher, bouncing from 7100. Recovering risk appetite has helped the index to shrug off the weakness from last Thursday.

The price has returned to trendline resistance from the June peak. A break above here and above 7300 would help cement the more positive view and open the way to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7366, and then on towards 7500.

A failure to move on above trendline resistance points towards a fresh drop to 7100 and then 7000.

FTSE_050722.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX continues building a base

The rate of decline in the index continues to slow, although it looks too early to say with conviction that a bottom has been formed.

The index tested trendline resistance from the June peak yesterday, but in a volume-light session was unable to make much headway. Further gains above trendline resistance would target 13,350, highs from late June.

So far the bearish view seems to have abated as the price slows its decline, but a drop below last week’s lows at 12,625 would hand the sellers the initiative once again.

DAX_050722.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 returns to trendline resistance

The index ended the quarter on a shaky note but started to recover on Friday, and futures made gains in the quiet holiday session yesterday.

Having recovered 3800 the index now targets 3920 and then the 50-day SMA (currently 3975). This last sits just below trendline resistance from the March high, something that has formed a very solid barrier to further gains in the short term. A move above this and above 4000 would be a bullish development from a technical and psychological standpoint.

As yet a reversal has yet to develop, with trendline support from the June low so far preventing the losses of Thursday from turning into anything more serious.

SPX_050722.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and S&P 500 regain more positive footing, but risk of further declines remain

The FTSE, DAX, and S&P 500 manage to regain a more positive footing after recent declines, but the wider picture remains worrying for bulls.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 06 July 2022 

FTSE 100 rebounds, but questions remain

The FTSE 100 declines seen yesterday failed to take out a crucial support zone, established between the June lows and 6977 Fibonacci level (76.4%).

A decline through that zone would have signalled a continuation of the slump seen over recent months. However, we are instead seeing price turn sharply higher in a move that takes back much of yesterday’s move.

Nevertheless, we would need to see price break up through the 7289 swing-high to bring about a more confident view that this rally is more than just an upward retracement.

Until then, keep an eye out for the bears to potentially return between the 7183 and 7223 levels (61.8-76.4% Fibonacci retracements).

UKX-4-hours-2022_07_06-08h33.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rebounds from March lows

The DAX has similarly managed to regain a more positive footing this morning, with price having rebounded from the March lows of 12432.

However, we certainly remain within a bearish trend from an intraday perspective, pointing towards the possibility of another turn lower before long. With that bearish ongoing trend in play, it looks likely that we will see this rebound falter, with the 61.8-76.4% Fibonacci zone providing an interesting area for the bears to come back into play (12744-12829).

A move up through the 12966 swing-high would be required to bring about a more positive outlook for the index.

DAX-4-hours-2022_07_06-08h43.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 finding support for now

The S&P 500 has been relatively stable of late, with price consolidating above the 76.4% Fibonacci support level of 3750.

The wider descending line points towards a potential move up to build on this recent consolidation, retracement phase. However, the wider pattern of lower highs does highlight that any such move would likely represent a precursor to further weakness.

As such, we would need to see a break below 3689 support to signal a bearish continuation from here. Until then, there is a chance of short-term gains to bring price back towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and descending trendline.

SPTRD-4-hours-2022_07_06-04h04.pngSource: ProRealTime
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European indices open higher for second consecutive day

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow after the latest FOMC minutes publication.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 07 July 2022 

FTSE 100 opens higher on the back of stronger US and Asian markets

The FTSE 100 opened higher on the back of stronger US and then Asian markets despite the release of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June meeting minutes which showed that another 50- or 75-basis point (bps) rate hike is in the pipeline for July and amid the ongoing political turmoil in the UK government on hopes that the inflation surge is easing as commodity prices continue to slide.

The fact that the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, does not plan to resign, despite hanging on by a thread, and him firing his cabinet minister and levelling up secretary, Michael Gove, the FTSE 100 remains resilient and continues to bounce off this week’s low at 7,012.

It does so as some commodities such as wheat now trade at pre-invasion of Ukraine levels and investors therefore hope that inflation will diminish towards year end.

The two-month resistance line at 7,252 remains a possible upside target, as is this week’s high at 7,289, as UK house price growth hits its highest level since 2004. The Halifax house price index rose to 13% year-on-year in June, the highest rate of growth since November 2004.

Key resistance above 7,289 comes in at the 7,331 to 7,362 mid- to late June highs as well as along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,366. The latter would need to be exceeded for a medium-term bottom to be formed.

Slips may find support between the 14 June low at 7,134 and the 1 July low at 7,100.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX bounces for second day despite German industrial production slowing sharply

The DAX 40 continues its recovery rally from Tuesday’s low at 12,386, made marginally below its March low at 12,432, despite much weaker than expected German industrial production which only increased by 0.2% month-on month in May.

This is compared to an expected 0.4% and an upwardly revised 1.3% in April, as the ongoing shortage of primary products and supply chain constraints caused by the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China weigh on production.

Immediate resistance along the two-month downtrend line at 12,727 is being tested with the 23 June low at 12,838 representing the next upside target, followed by Monday’s high at 12,965.

Minor support is seen at the 30 June low at 12,617 and more significant support at the March low at 12,432 and this week’s low at 12,386.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow continues to sideways trade despite June FOMC minutes pointing to further rate hikes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s recovery from this week’s 30,356 low remains close to minor resistance at this week’s high at 31,234.

This is after the publication of the latest US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes pointed to another 50- or 75-basis point rate hike in July and as a Bloomberg Economics forecast showed that the odds of a US recession in the next year stood at 38%.

A rise above 31,234 would engage the three-month downtrend line at 31,745 and the late June high at 31,885.

Slips may find support at yesterday’s 30,762 low and at the May low at 30,637.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow push higher ahead of latest US jobs report

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow have been on the rise, but could the current bearish trends signal a possible impending sell-off for European indices?

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 08 July 2022 

FTSE 100 rebounds, with Fibonacci resistance coming into play

The FTSE 100 has been on the rise over much of the second half of the week, with Boris Johnson’s resignation doing little to dampen sentiment around the pound and UK-listed stocks.

However, despite the gains seen over the course of the past three days, questions do still remain given the recent trend of lower highs. This rebound has taken price back into the deep Fibonacci zone between the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement levels.

With that in mind, there is a good chance we see a bearish turn to continue the downward trajectory evident over recent weeks.

A push through the 7289 swing-high would be required to bring about a more positive outlook and signal the potential for a push towards 7400-7500.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX on the rise, but bearish trend brings risk of a bearish turn

The DAX has similarly enjoyed a welcome boost in recent days, with some pointing towards the Chinese consideration of a $220 billion stimulus plan as grounds for optimism in Germany.

The upside evident this week does come off the back of a rebound from the March low of 12432. However, until we see price push up through the 12965 level, there is a distinct risk that the bears will come back into the fray.

A look at the stochastic oscillator, we have seen a move up through the 80 threshold. Previous reversals back out of overbought territory in the past month has subsequently brought about a downside reversal.

As such, a bearish trend remains in play until we see price break back through the 12965 level.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow continues to grind higher

The Dow has managed to build bullish momentum over the course of the week thus far, helping to extend the now three-week period of respite from major selling pressure.

Today provides a fresh hurdle for markets, with the latest jobs report released at 1.30pm (BST). With many expecting to see inflation and higher rates bringing negative impacts upon the economic outlook, there is a good chance people will approach any jobs data with a glass half empty perspective.

Nonetheless, things look relatively positive following the push through 31324. In fact, price has found support on that same level as it attempts to bring a fresh upward move.

A break back below the 30356 level would be required to bring about a more reliable bearish signal. To the upside, keep an eye out for trendline and horizontal resistance (31885).

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices retreat ahead of busy calendar week and start of earnings season

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of key inflation and consumer sentiment data and second quarter earnings reports.

indicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 11 July 2022 

FTSE 100 opens lower on back of generally weaker Asian markets

The FTSE 100 opened lower on the back of generally weaker Asian markets after China’s market regulator imposed fines on Alibaba and Tencent for not complying with anti-monopoly rules and as the UK conservative party begins the search for a new prime minister and successor to Boris Johnson in earnest.

The FTSE 100 last week remained below its two-month resistance line at 7,215 which should continue to act as resistance while the current slide eyes major support at 7,012 to 6,966, made up of the June and last week’s lows.

On the way down minor support can be spotted at the 1 July low at 7,100 and also at the 6 July low at 7,070.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX begins week on the back foot

Last week’s near 5% recovery rally in the DAX 40, following a swift decline, either paused or ended at Friday’s 13,021 high as the index begins this week by opening lower amid worries that the planned 11 to 21 July maintenance shut down of the Nordstream 1 pipeline might be extended by Russia once it is supposed to re-open.

This would have a very negative impact on the European economy as it is the single biggest pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany.

The publication of key consumer sentiment, inflation and industrial production data, both in Europe and the USA, may also weigh on indices this week.

Slips may find support between the late June low and 6 July high at 12,688 to 12,617. Further down sits key support at 12,432 to 12,386, the March and early July lows.

Only a rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at 13,021 would be positive for the DAX 40 and could lead to an extension towards the mid-June low at 13,220 being seen.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow expected to begin week on a weaker footing ahead of Q2 earnings season

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s recovery from last week’s 30,356 low took it to last week’s high at 31,509, to not far below its April-to-July downtrend line at 31,605.

Ahead of the US banking giant JP Morgan kicking off the second quarter (Q2) earnings season on Thursday amid a week of US inflation, sentiment and industrial production data, the Dow is likely to begin this week on a weaker footing.

Potential support is seen at the 7 July low at 31,040 and also at the 6 July trough at 30,762 as well as at the May low at 30,637 while resistance can be found at Friday’s 31,509 high.

A rise above 31,509 would engage the three-month downtrend line at 31,605 and the late June high at 31,885.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Dow start to head lower after recent respite

The FTSE, DAX, and Dow start to roll over, but how long would such weakness last for?

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 12 July 2022 

FTSE 100 rolling over from trendline resistance

The FTSE 100 has been relatively stable over the course of the past week, with price rising back into trendline resistance.

Despite the political uncertainty facing the UK, much of the focus for prospective leaders seems to be on buying favour through promises of lower taxes.

However, while sentiment around the FTSE 100 does not seem to be as fearful as some might have expected, the trend does still point towards the potential for a bearish turn from here. Having engaged with the descending trendline, we are seeing price weakening here.

A break below the 7094 level would point towards a likely move into the ascending trendline that currently makes up the symmetrical triangle. As such, sentiment is set to be determined by whether we see price break through 7216 (bullish) or 7094 (bearish).

UKX-4-hours-2022_07_12-07h55.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX rolls over after tentative upside break

The DAX had also enjoyed a relatively positive period coming into this week, with price tentatively pushing up through the prior swing-high of 12965 to reach the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

Nonetheless, price has clearly failed to follow up on that initial break, with price drifting lower since. The question here is whether we are continuing the downtrend or providing a retracement phase before we head higher once again.

With the stochastic into oversold, there is a chance we see price find some support before long. However, it makes sense to watch out for a move up out of oversold to bring greater confidence in such a move.

Until then, further downside is expected for the time being.

DAX-4-hours-2022_07_12-08h13.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow rolling over from Fibonacci resistance

The Dow has similarly been attempting to regain lost ground of late, with price turning upwards over the course of last week.

However, we have seen the Dow struggle at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level, with price turning sharply lower this morning. That points towards a period of downside coming into play here.

It is worthwhile noting, however, that a break below the 30350 level would be required to signal a wider period of downside coming into play once again for this index.

DJI-4-hours-2022_07_12-03h25.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices recover ahead of US inflation data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of US CPI data and second quarter earnings season.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 13 July 2022 

FTSE 100 continues to be sidelined

The FTSE 100 is expected to follow Asian markets higher which have generally snapped their recent sell-offs as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s US consumer price index (CPI) for June which is anticipated to remain hot.

The index is trying to break through its two-month resistance line at 7,175 and reach Tuesday’s high at 7,225, a rise above which would engage the 5 July high at 7,289 which remains key for the medium-term trend.

Below the May low at 7,157 sits this week’s low at 7,095 which is to act as support. Further down lies the 6 July low at 7,070.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX tries to recover

The recent sell-off in the DAX 40 amid worries that the planned 11 to 21 July maintenance shutdown of the Nordstream 1 pipeline might be extended by Russia once it is supposed to re-open, took the index to 12,653 on Tuesday before it closed near its open. It has thus formed a Doji on the daily candlesticks chart which denotes indecision.

A drop through 12,653 would eye the late June low at 12,617. Further down sits key support at 12,432 to 12,386, the March and early July lows.

Only a rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at 13,021 would be positive for the DAX 40 and could lead to an extension towards the mid-June low at 13,220 unfolding.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 under pressure ahead of US inflation data

The publication of US inflation data is expected to drive equity indices over the next few days with prices to rise 8.7% in June, from 8.6% a year ago, and 1% month-on-month.

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 5.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month.

Over the last few days, the Nasdaq 100 slid back to its breached April-to-July downtrend line, which because of inverse polarity, now acts as a support line at 11,600 ahead of the second quarter (Q2) earnings season with major US investment banks such as JP Morgan and Citigroup reporting on Thursday and Friday.

A slip below Tuesday’s low at 11,684 would nonetheless lead to the May low at 11,490 being back on the map. Further down the late June and early July lows can be found at 11,358 to 11,317.

Resistance above Tuesday’s high at 11,998 can be spotted at the late June and last week’s highs at 12,180 to 12,227.

Nasdaq chartSource: ProRealTime
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Indices calmer as investors await the start of US earnings season

US inflation data yesterday knocked equity markets, but they are attempting to edge higher as investors look towards earnings from JPMorgan.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 14 July 2022 

FTSE 100 stuck in a range

While the FTSE 100 did fall back yesterday along with other indices, it was able to recover from its lows and avoid heavy declines.

It has been a choppy time for the index, which has seen repeated dips towards 7100 and then bounces back to 7200, without much indication that it can break out of this range. Trendline resistance from the late June high continues to limit any upside, but for now any bigger move lower is constrained by the 7100 support zone.

A rally above 7200 and then on above 7230 would help to provide a more bullish view, breaking both horizontal and trendline resistance. Below 7100, the price heads towards 7037 and then down to 7000.

FTSE_140722.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX hovers near six-month lows

The gloomy outlook for the eurozone economy continues to pressure the index. Yesterday’s US consumer price index (CPI) reading points towards further high inflation in Europe too, putting pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to act.

Trendline resistance from mid-June continues to hold back any sustained upside for now. It would need a rally above 13,000 to break trendline and horizontal resistance and suggest a break to the upside is in play. This would then target 13,190 and 13,375.

A fresh decline targets the recent low at 12,410, which was also the low in March. Below this 12,230 and 11,704 come into view.

DAX_140722.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 struggles as earnings season begins

Yesterday’s CPI reading put pressure on US indices, which dropped sharply in the wake of the report. Although they then proceeded to recoup lost ground, futures have dropped back again overnight.

The drop on Wednesday saw the index break below rising trendline support from mid-June, which now puts the low for that month around 3645 back into play.

Earnings season gets underway in earnest today as JPMorgan and other banks report earnings. There will be hope that this can provide the springboard for a market recovery, with the index targeting 3900 and then the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3924 in such an event.

SPX_140722.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Indices recover after difficult start to earnings season

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as second quarter earnings season has begun.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 15 July 2022 

FTSE 100 tries to hold above key support

On Thursday the FTSE 100 dropped to its 7,012 to 6,966 key support zone which is comprised of the June and early July lows on global recession fears and weaker than expected US earnings results from banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase & Co (All Sessions).

Provided that the index manages to stabilise above its 6,966 June low, a gentle recovery towards the two-month downtrend line at 7,177 may ensue.

Only a rise and daily chart close above the last reaction high – a daily candlestick high, higher than that of the candle to its left and right – at Tuesday’s 7,225 peak would begin a bullish trend reversal, though.

As long as the FTSE 100 remains below 7,225, the odds favour a fall through the 7,012 to 6,966 support zone with the March trough at 6,764 remaining in sight.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX slips for the fifth consecutive day

The sell-off in the DAX 40 amid fears that the planned 11 to 21 July maintenance shutdown of the Nordstream 1 pipeline might be extended by Russia once it is supposed to re-open, is ongoing with the index so far slipping to 12,432, close to its 12,386 early July low.

Worse than expected US earnings have also led to risk-off sentiment, pushing the US dollar higher on safe haven flows and global commodities and equities lower, amid worries of further aggressive Federal Reserve tightening with talks of a 100-basis point rate hike at the next meeting making the rounds.

Provided that the recent lows at 12,432 to 12,386 underpin, an end of week recovery rally may reach the two-month downtrend line at 12,735 and the 23 June low at 12,839. Slightly further up sits the mid-June low at 12,944 which may also act as resistance, together with the more significant 13,021 high from last Friday.

A drop through 12,386 would likely engage the 50% retracement of the 2020 to 2021 uptrend at 12,120. Only a rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at 13,021 would be positive for the DAX 40 and could lead to an extension towards the mid-June low at 13,220 unfolding.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 recovers from yesterday’s sell-off as US earnings season continues

The US earnings season has taken over from inflation as the main story, with the likes of banking giants JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley failing to hit the mark and warnings about the risk to the economy in the coming months being prevalent, all of which negatively impacted the Nasdaq 100 which dipped close to this week’s low at 11,451 before recovering from its two-month uptrend line.

Minor resistance above Wednesday’s high at 11,938 sits between Tuesday’s high at 11,998 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 12,086. More important resistance can be found between the late June and last week’s highs at 12,180 to 12,227.

A slip below Wednesday’s low at 11,451 would probably lead to the May low at 11,490 being back on the cards. Further down the late June and early July lows can be seen at 11,358 to 11,317.

Nasdaq 100 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 in bullish form

Indices have begun the new week with gains, and for the time being have shrugged off inflation concerns and a mixed start to earnings season.

BG_data_chart_stocks_indices_index_24324Source: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 18 July 2022 

FTSE 100 clears trendline resistance

The index found itself able to bounce on Friday, taking its cue from the more positive performance of US markets despite strong inflation and relatively poor earnings. This then suggests that another bounce may be developing.

After being held back throughout late June and into July so far by trendline resistance from the June high, the index has been able to break higher in early trading this morning. The next area to watch is the 7230 zone, and then on towards the late June highs at 7360.

A reversal back below trendline resistance would hand the sellers the advantage again, and put a move back to 7040 and 7000 into play.

FTSE_180722.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX pushes higher

This index finds itself 500 points higher from last week’s lows, as global indices put in a bullish performance.

Rising stochastics since mid-June seem to have limited the downside in the moves lower over the last month, and finally the index appears to have the strength to move higher.

Continued gains move towards 13,400, where they may run into some resistance as was the case in the second half of June. Beyond this the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 13,563 is the next target.

12,500 remains in place as potential support in the event of a reversal.

DAX_180722.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 looks to test recent resistance

Last week’s drop below trendline support from the June low turned out to be a false move, and has been swiftly reversed.

Markets have been looking for a reason to bounce for at least a month, but the fact that US indices were able to shrug off surging inflation data and the disappointing start to earnings season seems to suggest this bounce might have some room to run.

The key area to watch in the short-term will be 3920. This stalled gains in June and then also just over a week ago. A break above here would be a notable development and perhaps put 4000 back into play as a target.

Meanwhile, sellers will want to see the price give back its recent gains and fall back below trendline support, putting 3735 and then 3700 into view as potential support.

SPX_180722.pngSource: ProRealTime
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