News and Trade Ideas (Commodities)

[MongiIG]

Gold and natural gas rise while oil prices hold steady

Gold and natural gas prices have edged higher while oil is in a holding pattern after yesterday’s drop.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 29 September 2023 11:51

Gold edges higher

Gold has managed to rally in early trading, reversing some of yesterday’s losses. However, the overall bearish move is still in place, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) now below the 200-day. This negative outlook will be maintained unless the price can stage a bigger move back above $1930. Further declines target the $18087 level last tested in February and March.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent steady after losses

The price faltered yesterday, though for the moment more selling has yet to materialise. Further declines head towards $90, and then to the rising 50-day SMA (currently $87.63). If the price can hold above $92 then a fresh move higher may develop. This then targets the highs of October and November last year at $97.50 and $98.47.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas moves higher

The price continues to climb, though gains above 3000 are still proving hard to sustain. Additional gains now target the 3050 level, while above this a higher high will be created. A close back below 2800 is needed to suggest a fresh move lower is at hand.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and silver prices slump to multi-month lows, while WTI crude price drops back from recent highs

Precious metals have been hit hard by a surging dollar and rising bond yields, and oil prices have dropped back from the highs seen last week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 02 October 2023 11:50

Gold closes on seven-month lows

Gold’s collapse accelerated on Friday, taking the price to its lowest level since early March. The price has witnessed a remarkable slump since the middle of the month, having dropped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), retreated from trendline resistance from the July highs and then breaking below support at $1885. Further declines target $1807, the lows of February and March. There is as yet little indication of any nascent rebound, though the $1885 level may now prove to be resistance.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI edges down again

A further decline in oil on Friday has raised hopes that a short-term top may be in for the time being. A deeper pullback would need a close below $89, something that eluded the price last week. This would then open the way to a more substantial drop that could see the price head back towards the rising 50-day SMA. This would then create a higher low and help solidify the bullish outlook. If $89 continues to provide support then we could see a fresh attempt to push back to the highs of last week around $93.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver’s fall accelerates

Silver’s decline has been impressive, wiping out all the gains made since early March. The price closed below the $22.40 support zone on Friday, breaking lower after finding support around here three times since June. The sellers remain firmly in control here, and a push towards $21 seems likely. It would need a close back above $22.50 to suggest a short-term bounce may be in the offing.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil tops out, gold sees sixth straight day drop while natural gas looks capped

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and natural gas as the US dollar continues to appreciate.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 11:29

Brent crude oil forms top

Monday’s daily chart close by the Brent crude oil price below last week’s $90.49 low confirms a top formation as the rising US dollar led to a reduction in oil long positions. The June-to-October uptrend line at $88.36 per barrel together with the August high at $87.83 are thus in focus but may offer interim support. Further down meanders the 55-day simple moving average at $87.28. Minor resistance above last week’s low at $90.49 can be spotted at the 21 September $91.37 trough.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold price has seen six straight days of falls

Gold’s swift descent from last week’s $1,947 per troy ounce high due to a rising US dollar and yields has taken it to a seven-month low at $1,816. Slightly below this level the February and March lows can be made out at $1,810 to $1,805 and may offer interim support. There is now no resistance to speak of until the 6 March high at $1,858 and Friday’s $1,880 high.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices once again come off the $3 region

Last week US natural gas futures revisited their $3.021 September high on supply tightness and briefly overcame it but still ended the day below it. Over the past few days further attempts to break through this resistance area failed with front month natural gas futures instead slipping back towards the August-to-October uptrend line at $2.848. While the next lower $2.791 September low underpins, the medium-term uptrend will stay intact, though. A currently not expected rise above the $3.021 to $3.024 region would engage the August peak at $3.050.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI tops out while silver and Arabica coffee find interim support

Outlook on WTI, silver and Arabica coffee as rapidly rising US yields lead to risk-off sentiment.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 October 2023 10:56

WTI slips to near one-month low

WTI is in the process of keeling over from its $94.25 September peak ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting but needs to fall and close on a daily basis below its late September low at $87.85 for a top to be confirmed. Tuesday’s low at $87.02 is within sight and a fall through it may engage the August peak at $84.39. Minor resistance above the 21 September low at $88.28 comes in at Tuesday’s $89.27 high. While below it, further downside pressure is expected to lower the oil price.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver drops to near seven-month low

Friday’s silver bearish reversal off 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) amid rapidly rising US yields took the precious metal down to $20.69 per troy ounce, to levels last traded in mid-March. As long as this week’s low at $20.69 underpins, a minor bounce towards the mid-March low at $21.46 may ensue. Further up lies key resistance between the June-to-September lows at $22.12 to $22.30. Failure at $20.69 would eye the $20.42 February low and also the psychological $20 mark as well as the March trough at $19.90.

Source: ProRealTime

Arabica Coffee finds interim support

Front month Arabica Coffee futures hit a near nine-month low last week amid improved weather in top producer Brazil and dropped to 14,550 before stabilizing. Since Friday’s low at 14,550 has not been accompanied by a lower reading of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, positive divergence can be made out.

More often than not it leads to at least short-term consolidation in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, in case of Arabica coffee that is to say down. A rise above Monday’s high at 15,180 could thus put the July low, 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and late August high at 15,506 to 15,764 on the plate. Intraday support can be found between the mid-August to mid-September lows at 14,761 to 14,711. A fall through last week’s low at 14,550 would engage the January low at 14,288, though.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil retraces lower, gold remains bid while natural gas hits 10-month high

Brent crude oil retraces lower, gold remains bid while natural gas hits 10-month high

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 October 2023 10:50

Brent crude oil slips back after Monday’s gains

Brent crude oil, which rallied by over 3.5% on Monday on heightened Middle East tensions, is seen slipping back to Monday’s $85.89 to $84.53 per barrel price gap which may get filled over the coming days. This is the more likely scenario, provided that Monday’s high at $88.46 isn’t exceeded. Immediate resistance can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $87.71 and at the August high at $87.83.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold surge likely to soon run out of steam

Gold’s gap higher following the Israel-Gaza strip conflict has so far taken the precious metal to $1,865 per troy ounce. A rise above this level could lead to the August low at $1,885 being reached. Together with the $1,893 June low it is likely to act as resistance, though. Were a fall through Monday’s low at $1,845 to be seen, the gap with Friday’s high at $1,835 may at least partially get filled.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices surge to ten-month high

Over the course of last week US natural gas futures have surged to a ten-month high at $3.585 as colder weather forecasts led to natural gas suppliers expecting a significant rise in winter demand. Were the $3.585 high to be exceeded, the 12 January high at $3.742 could be reached and perhaps also the $4 region. Major support now lies a long way off between the $3.056 to $3.050 March and August peaks.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI and sliver little changed while US natural gas trades close to 10-month high

Outlook on WTI, silver and natural gas as US dollar and yields retreat further.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 October 2023 11:27

WTI flirts with the 55-day simple moving average

WTI’s gap with last week’s high at $82.34 per barrel remains unfilled as the situation in Israel and Gaza evolves and a ground invasion of the latter cannot be ruled out, keeping the oil price elevated because of the escalation risk. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $84.54 acts as immediate support ahead of Monday’s $83.73 gap high point. If slid through, the price gap should at least partially get filled. Were Tuesday’s high at $85.45 to be exceeded, though, Monday’s high at $86.11 would be back in focus. Further up sits last Tuesday’s low at $87.02.

Silver likely to recover further from its seven-month low

Silver’s advance off its early October $20.69 per troy ounce low has so far taken it to Monday’s high at $22.01, a rise above which would engage key resistance between the June-to-September lows at $22.12 to $22.30. This we expect to cap, at least over the next few days. Were a slip below Tuesday’s low at $21.64 to be seen, however, the 4 October high at $21.41 may be revisited. For now a bullish bias seems to retain the upper hand, though.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices trade close to ten-month high

US natural gas futures are on track for their seventh straight day of gains and trade close to their ten-month high at $3.585 as colder weather forecasts lead to expectations of a significant rise in winter demand. Above Monday’s $3.585 high lies the 12 January high at $3.742 which may soon be reached ahead of the $4 region. Minor support sits around Tuesday’s low at $3.460 and more significant support a long way off between the $3.056 to $3.050 March and August peaks.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil drops on huge stock build, gold rallies further and Arabica coffee bounces off ten-month low

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and Arabica coffee as US dollar retreats.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 October 2023 11:03

Brent crude oil tries to close price gap

Brent crude oil, which rallied by over 3.5% on Monday on heightened Middle East tensions, did partially close this week’s price gap with Monday’s high at $84.54 per barrel on large US stock build. According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories increased by a huge 12.94 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts of a 1.3 million barrel build. The price gap may still fully be closed but before this happens Tuesday’s low at $86.34 may be reached. Above it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $87.81 and sits the August high at $87.83. While Monday’s high at $88.46 isn’t bettered, the overall skew for the oil price remains bearish.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold approaches $1,885 to $1,893 per troy ounce resistance area

Gold’s rally following the Israel-Gaza conflict is fast approaching the August per troy ounce low at $1,885 which, together with the $1,893 June low, is expected to act as resistance. Further up sits the mid-September low at $1,901. Minor support can now be found at Tuesday’s $1,865 high. Only if a currently unexpected fall through Monday’s low at $1,845 were to be seen, could the gap with Friday’s high at $1,835 at least partially get filled.

Source: ProRealTime

Arabica Coffee bounces off support

Front month Arabica Coffee futures hit a ten-month low at 14,444 amid improved weather conditions in top producer Brazil before bouncing back on Wednesday. Since the low at 14,444 has not been accompanied by a lower reading of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, positive divergence can be seen. More often than not it leads to at least short-term consolidation in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend which in case of Arabica coffee is a downtrend.

A rise above Wednesday’s high at 14,884 would eye the early October high at 15,180. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, at least an interim bottoming formation will have been confirmed with the July low, 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and late August high at 15,408 to 15,764 then being in focus. Intraday support can be found between the mid-August to mid-September lows at 14,761 to 14,711.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and silver make up lost ground

Precious metals have made headway this morning, while oil prices have also recouped some losses from earlier in the week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 October 2023 10:52

Gold reverses Wednesday fall

Gold prices fell back from resistance yesterday, but have edged higher in early trading. The price returned to the $1885 support level yesterday, after rallying from the lows of the week. A close above $1885 would be a small bullish step, though with the price still below the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), the overall outlook leans bearish. In addition, trendline resistance from the July highs may well stymie any progress in the short-term. A lower high below $1930 confirms the near-term bearish outlook.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI struggles below $84

Oil prices stabilised yesterday and have made small gains this morning. A low may be forming around the $81 level, though near-term upside will require a close back above Monday’s highs around $86. This might then suggest a resumption of the uptrend and a move back to the September highs around $93.50. A close back below $81 would hand the initiative to the sellers and suggest further losses towards the 100- and 200-day SMAs.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver recoups Wednesday’s losses

The recovery from the lows of last week continues, though the steep downtrend from the highs of late August remains in place. Trendline resistance from the August highs could come into play towards $22.50, and might still result in a lower high. A close above $22.70 might suggest a bigger rally towards the 200-day SMA or the late September high at $23.80. In the short-term, any close back below $21.50 would suggest a fresh challenge of the lows seen last week.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, silver and sugar prices rise further still

Outlook on Brent crude oil, silver and sugar amid heightened Middle east tensions.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 October 2023 11:20

Brent crude oil price continues to rise on Middle East tensions

Brent crude oil continues its advance amid worries about supply - provoked by heightened tensions in the Middle East - are on investors’ minds. So far a rise to $91.22 per barrel has been seen before the breached June-to-October uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, capped the advance. While this remains the case, the price gap with Tuesday’s high at $90.10 might get filled. More important support can be found between Tuesday’s low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $88.19 to $88.05. While remaining above the latter, the oil price looks short-term bullish. A rise above $91.22 could engage the $93.00 region ahead of the September highs at $94.97 to $95.33.

Source:ProRealTime

Silver breaks through downtrend line

Silver’s advance off its early October $20.69 per troy ounce low has now taken it to above the August-to-October downtrend line at $22.73 towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.33. Above it lies the late September high at $23.77 which may also get hit this week. Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.94 can be spotted along the breached August-to-October downtrend line at $22.71. While Tuesday’s low at $22.38 holds, further upside is expected to be in store. Together with the June-to-September lows at $22.30 to $22.12 it offers significant support.

Source:ProRealTime

Sugar #11 approaches 12-year high

Front month sugar futures are once more approaching their 12-year high at 27.85 amid concerns about supply as producing countries go through a draught. On the way up resistance can be spotted at the 22 September high at 27.59 while immediate support comes in between the late September and 9 October highs at 27.06 to 27.15. While last week’s low at 26.13 underpins, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to be intact.

Source:ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI, gold rally pause as US natural gas resumes its descent

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas as US dollar and yields rally.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 October 2023 11:19

WTI gives back some of its recent gains

WTI’s up to 8% rally from last week’s low is easing as OPEC did not heed a call by Iran for an oil embargo on Israel and as traders reassess the supply situation. While WTI stays below Wednesday’s $88.59 high, a slip through the one-week support line at $86.36 may ensue in which case the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Tuesday’s low at $85.06 to $84.45 would be back in sight. While this support zone holds, the recent uptrend will remain intact. A currently unexpected rise above this week’s $88.59 high would put the minor psychological $90 region back on the plate.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold trades in 2 ½ month highs on heightened Middle East tensions

Gold’s over 6% rally since the Middle East flared up, as it once again acts as a flight-to-safety commodity, has so far taken it to Wednesday’s $1,962 per troy ounce high. Above it beckons the key $1,983 to $1,987 resistance area which consists of the June and July peaks. Slips should find support between Friday’s Marabuzo candlestick pattern high and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,933 to $1,931. While the precious metal remains above its breached May-to-October downtrend line at $1,920, the gold price remains within a steep uptrend with the psychological $2,000 mark representing a possible upside target.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices come further off their ten-month high

Last week US natural gas futures reached a ten-month high at $3.585 as colder weather forecasts lead to expectations of a surge in winter demand before drifting lower since then. Tuesday’s $3.289 low remains in sight, a fall through which could lead to the $3.056 to $3.050 March and August peaks being revisited in the coming weeks. Minor resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high at $3.432. If bettered, the $3.500 region may be retested. Above the next higher current $3.585 October high lies the 12 January high at $3.742.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude oil and silver prices continue to move higher

Commodity prices are continuing to surge, with the most impressive move seen in gold prices this week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 October 2023 10:47

Gold back to highest level since late July

The gold price has gone through an astonishing two weeks, during which it has rallied from a seven-month low to a two-and-a-half month high. During this time it has smashed through trendline resistance from the July highs, and moved back above the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA). The July highs at $1985 are back in view. Above this, the psychological $2000 mark beckons. For the moment bullish momentum, driven by safe haven buying, shows no sign of slowing, but some consolidation back below $1950 might not be surprising in the short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent sets its sights on September highs

The news from the Middle East continues to drive gains in oil prices, with Brent rallying to a two-and-a-half week high on Thursday. Further gains target the $95 highs from late September, while above this the price will be at a new higher high, further bolstering the bullish view. Sellers will need a reversal back below the 50-day SMA to suggest that the price has reversed course.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver clambers back above 50-day MA

The rally for silver has not been quite as impressive as that for gold, but it has still seen a remarkable bounce. While it has broken above trendline resistance from the August highs, the price remains below the 200-day SMA for the time being, and a move higher on Tuesday ran out of momentum and was unable to break above the indicator. Any reversal below $23.80 would still be potentially bearish, but it is possible that a drop back towards $22.50 could still see fresh buying pressure emerge.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and natural gas mostly quiet in early trading

Gold is little-changed in early trading, while oil prices have fallen back from Friday’s highs. Natural Gas remains under some pressure.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 October 2023 11:23

Gold at three-month high

Gold’s astonishing bounce finally hit some selling last week, as it neared $2000. For the moment the buyers remain firmly in control. The price closed below the summer highs around $1980, but a drop back below $1950 would be needed to signal that a bigger short-term consolidation could be underway. Further gains above $1983 would point towards another push towards the important $2000 level.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI stumbles but uptrend intact

Oil’s gains continued on Friday, after a week in which the price moved back above the 50-day SMA. This puts the price on course for the highs of September around $94, with the price having created a higher low at the beginning of the month around $82. The bullish view is back in place after the recent gains, and it would need a drop back below $84 to suggest that another test of the October lows is in the offing.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas pullback goes on

Short-term weakness continues to prevail here, as the price drops back from its recent high. In the near-term further declines may target trendline support from the late August low. Below this the 50-day SMA. However, this would still create a higher low. Overall the bullish view remains in place unless the price drops back below the 2780 zone seen in late September.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and silver edge up in morning trading while Brent crude remains under pressure

Precious metals have edged higher after Monday’s losses, but oil prices continue to struggle.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 October 2023 11:20

Gold consolidates after gains

Gold saw some of its bullish momentum ebb on Monday, halting the leg higher seen over the last week. Should this turn into a more substantial pullback then the 200-day SMA could be an initial target for any downside support. A close back above $1983 continues to target $2000 in the first instance.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude price drops back from last week’s high

Oil prices suffered a further knock on Monday, falling back towards the 50-day SMA. For Brent, a close back below $88 would be a potentially bearish development, as it might then see trendline support from the October low broken. Buyers will want to see the price hold above this level and then a move back towards $92 to maintain the bullish outlook.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver eyes renewed attempt to clear 200-day MA

The price seemed to reverse course on Monday, though a close back below $22.50 is needed to suggest that a lower high has formed. A recovery back above the 200-day SMA might help to suggest that a fresh leg higher is underway, with a close above $23.80 helping to solidify the bullish view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude, silver and natural gas look to move higher

Commodity prices have made further headway, with silver and Brent crude looking for further gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 October 2023 11:32

Brent rallies further

Oil prices came storming back on Wednesday, helping to negate a rising bearish view. The price moved back above trendline support once more, having closed below it on Tuesday. The 50-day SMA was also recovered, in an impressive double-whammy for the commodity. If the price can move above $90 then the bullish view continues to gather pace. Wednesday’s move seems to cancel out the possible bearish view, and it would need a close back below $88 to reverse the outlook once more.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver pushes higher

Silver is not giving up its gains lightly, consolidating and finding buyers on the intraday dips. A close back below $22.50 eludes the price for now, leaving the commodity in a more neutral stance. A close back above $23 could hand the buyers the advantage once more. Sellers need the close back below $22.50 to help solidify a bearish outlook, which might then see a resumption of the downtrend in place from May.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas rally revives

The pullback appears to have run its course here, with the price rallying sharply for a third day on Wednesday. Renewed gains target the 3585 highs from early October, and above this a new higher high is created. The buyers have reasserted control, and a continuation of the uptrend seems likely at this point. Sellers will need a reversal of the gains of the week so far to suggest a new leg of the pullback is underway.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI, gold and US natural gas await plethora of rate decisions

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas amid the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza and rate decisions by the BoJ, Fed and BoE.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 October 2023 12:23

WTI range trades as investors await plethora of rate decisions

WTI continues to range trade below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $85.41 per barrel which capped the upside since Wednesday as investors await rate decisions by the likes of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. If Friday’s high at $85.62 were to be bettered, the mid-October high at $87.05 may be revisited. Strong support remains to be seen between the current October lows at $81.95 to $81.21.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold price retreats from last week’s high

Now that the widely anticipated ground invasion of the Gaza strip by the Israeli army has begun, the price of gold has slipped back below the psychological $2,000 per troy ounce mark as investors bought the rumour and pushed the gold price to its March peak at $2,009 last week but now sell the fact. The accelerated uptrend line at $1,991 may thus be tested and, if fallen through, Friday’s low at $1,977 as well. While it underpins, immediate upside pressure should retain the upper hand, though. A rise above $2,009 would engage the 10 May high at $2,048.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices come off last week’s new ten-month high

US natural gas futures reached a new ten-month high at $3.646 on Friday, marginally above their early October high, as Israel began a ground invasion of the Gaza strip over the weekend and supply worries drove the price of gas higher. Early on Monday morning a lower open is being made with a gap forming with Friday’s low at $3.444 which may act as resistance in the course of the day. As long as Friday’s high at $3.646 isn’t bettered, the odds are stacked in favour of a sell-off being seen as negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) accompanied last week’s advance and acts as a possible early warning signal of a bearish reversal taking shape. If so, the 20 October low at $3.172 may be revisited over the coming days.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold price steady, while WTI crude oil slips and natural gas pushes higher

Gold is holding on to gains and natural gas is higher, but oil prices are coming under pressure again.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 November 2023 12:27

Gold holds firm

The price remained relatively muted on Thursday, matching the limited movement seen on Friday. Bullish momentum has faded over the past week, though dip buyers have stepped in on weakness, most notably on 24 October and 1 November. Overall the bullish move is intact, though a close below $1950 could signal a more substantial pullback is at hand.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI bounce stalls

Oil prices rallied on Thursday, with WTI moving higher off the 100-day SMA. Now the buyers need to provide fresh impetus, with a close above $84 helping to restore a short-term bullish view. This then puts the price on course for more gains towards the October high. A failure to clear trendline resistance from the September high could see selling pressure materialise once again.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas pushes higher

After a mixed performance on Wednesday, the price stabilised on Thursday. The overall rally is firmly intact, as is the move higher from mid-October. With the price having carved out a higher high this week the buyers are in control. A close above 3670 would see the price above the late-2021 low and reinforce the bullish view. In the near-term, a drop below 3350 might suggest a push back towards the mid-October lows.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and natural gas struggle while oil prices edge higher

Commodity prices are mostly quiet in early trading, but oil prices have edged higher.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 November 2023 12:19

Gold prices hold steady

The price continued to push higher on Friday, defeating expectations of a fresh downturn after Wednesday’s recovery. This now puts the price on course to head back towards $2000 and higher, averting a short-term pullback scenario for the time being. A close below $1960 would be a necessary catalyst for a short-term bearish view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI fights to move higher

Friday witnessed a reversal, pushing back the price below the 100-day SAM and potentially marking a renewed downward move towards the 200-day SMA. The close below the early October low hands the initiative to the sellers, reinforcing the bearish view created by the lower high in mid-October. Buyers will need a close back above $84 to suggest that a short-term low is in place. This will then challenge trendline resistance from the late September high.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas drops back

Gains on Thursday failed to carry through into Friday, with the price faltering below the highs of earlier in the week. A move back above 3600 helps to restore a short-term bullish view, and puts the price on course to target a higher high. Trendline support from the August low comes into play down towards 3200.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI falls sharply while gold and US natural gas prices also drop

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas as investors worry about global demand.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 November 2023 12:15

WTI drops to three-month low on huge inventories build

WTI fell by over 4% and dropped to a three-month low, so far to $76.46, amid concerns regarding future demand following weak China data and after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories rose by almost 12 million barrels last week, the biggest increase since the beginning of the year. On the demand side, the EIA also expects total petroleum consumption to decline by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year versus a previously forecast 100,000 bpd increase. WTI now trades below its $77.60 per barrel August low and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78.00 which represent minor resistance ahead of the $81.21 early October low. A fall through Wednesday’s $76.46 low would put the May high at $74.70 back on the cards.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold price retreats further from last week’s high

The gold price continues to gradually slide and on Tuesday nearly revisited its September high and late October $1,953 per barrel low by dropping to $1,957. Further down lies the late September high at $1,947 which may also act as support. Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while no rise above Tuesday’s high at $1,977 is seen. Slightly below it minor resistance can be made out around the $1,970 early November low. Above $1,977 lies minor resistance around the 2 November high at $1,991.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas continues to slide from last week’s ten-month high

US natural gas futures reached a ten-month high at $3.646 on Friday, marginally above their early October high, before they slid back towards their late October low at $3.172 and the September-to-November uptrend line at $3.157. Further down support can be spotted between the mid-to-late September highs at $3.024 to $3.021 while minor resistance sits at the $3.349 late October low.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, silver slide while wheat prices rise

Outlook on Brent crude oil, silver and Chicago wheat as a vessel is struck by a missile in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 November 2023 11:43

Brent crude oil price drops on weak China data

Brent crude oil continues its swift decline towards its $78.52 per barrel May high as China’s consumer prices slip more than expected with the cost of food falling the most in 25 months, pointing towards lower demand for oil. As long as Brent crude oil manages to hold above Wednesday’s $79.18 low, a minor bounce towards the $81.68 to $82.31 resistance area may unfold. It consists of the August lows and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and as such is expected to thwart any recovery attempt.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver drops out of its sideways trading range to the downside

The price of spot silver has been range trading between its last couple of weeks’ extremes at $23.70 to $22.45 per troy ounce with it now leaving it to the downside as the US dollar holds steady. Strong support between the June-to-mid-September lows at $22.30 to $22.12 is likely to be revisited but may well hold again, as it did on Wednesday. If not, and if a daily chart close below the $22.12 June low were to be seen, the late February high at $21.98 would be eyed. Minor resistance above Thursday’s intraday high at $22.64 can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.88. While remaining below it, downside pressure should prevail.

Source: ProRealTime

Chicago Wheat prices rise towards their two-month high

Chicago Wheat prices are rising once more on reports that a shipping vessel was struck by a missile upon entering the port of Odessa in Ukraine. The two-month high at $620, made in October, is thus back in sight, a rise above which could lead to the July low at $627 being reached. Minor support below Tuesday’s high at $602.5 can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $594.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, US natural gas and Chicago wheat recover

Outlook on Brent crude oil, US natural gas and Chicago wheat following OPEC monthly report and shifting weather patterns.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 November 2023 12:06

Brent crude oil price drops on weak China data

Brent crude oil has risen for three consecutive days as OPEC in its monthly report raised its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2023 to 2.46 million barrels per day, citing solid global growth trends and a healthy oil market. The Brent crude oil price is thus trading back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.26 per barrel and tries to reach the early October low at $83.12 which may at least short-term cap. Support below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) comes in around the $81.68 late August low and the psychological $80 mark as well as at last week’s trough at $79.18.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures recover from five-week low

US natural gas futures descent from their ten-month high at $3.665 in late October have taken these to last week’s low at $3.125 before shifting weather patterns led to Monday’s sharp rally and Tuesday’s $3.377 high to date. As long as it isn’t overcome, a slip back towards the $3.172 late October low may ensue. Below it Monday’s price gap can be spotted at $3.216 to $3.198 ahead of last week’s low at $3.125. Further down support can be found between the mid-to-late September highs at $3.024 to $3.021 while minor resistance sits at the $3.432 mid-October high.

Source: ProRealTime

Chicago Wheat prices recover

Chicago Wheat prices, which last week rose to $617 on reports that a shipping vessel was struck by a missile upon entering the port of Odessa in Ukraine, slid back to Monday’s $589 low before heaving themselves back above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $592. Further range trading between the two-month high at $620, made in October, and the late October $575 low thus remains on the cards. Above the $575 level potential support can be seen along the September-to-November uptrend line at $584.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI muted but gold, silver rally on slipping US dollar

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver as US inflation comes in softer-than-expected.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 November 2023 10:58

WTI unchanged despite positive China data

WTI continues to trade around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78.04 per barrel despite China retail sales beating forecasts and the country’s industrial output rising the most in six months. Potential slips may find support around the $77.60 late August low and the $77.11 high seen last Thursday whereas resistance above the one-month tentative downtrend line at $79.04 sits at Tuesday’s $79.66 high. A rise above this level would engage the 3 November low at $79.96 and the minor psychological $80.00 mark. Further up sits the $81.21 early October low which may well cap, if reached at all. A fall through last Wednesday’s $76.46 low would put the May high at $74.70 back on the cards.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold price gets a boost from weaker greenback

The gold price is seen recovering from its $1,932 per troy ounce Monday low as the US dollar is retreating in the face of softer US inflation. The precious metal is on track for its third day of gains and has so far managed to overcome the September high at $1,953 whilst gunning for the psychological $2,000 mark. Minor support can be found between the September highs at $1,953 to $1,947. More significant support can be seen along the October-to-November support line at $1,941, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,936 and the current November low at $1,932.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver price rises by over 4% in a couple of days

The price of spot silver has surged as US inflation came in weaker-than-expected and as the US dollar slid with the August-to-November downtrend line at $23.20 per troy ounce having been breached and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.26 being tested. Further up beckon the late September and October highs at $23.70 to $23.77. Support below Wednesday’s $23.04 low can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.77.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and silver prices fall back while Brent crude oil price moves higher

Early trading has seen a reversal of some of last week’s moves in commodity prices, though in a limited fashion so far.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 12:23

Gold sheds some ground

The price has fallen back below Friday’s opening levels, trimming some of the gains made last week. However, having established a higher low last week the buyers remain in charge overall. A move back below the lows of Wednesday and Thursday at $1956 would dent this view, and suggest a possible retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A reversal back above $1990 puts the price on course to challenge the late October highs at $2010, and then onwards to the May highs around $2060.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent recovers from last week’s low

The past week saw plenty of volatility in oil prices, as the drop from the October highs continued and the price fell below the 200-day SMA. The buyers mounted another impressive response on Friday, causing a rebound from the $77.60 low, but now we need to see a follow-through back above the 200-day SMA, and then above the 14 November high. This might then suggest a renewed leg higher has begun. A failure to hold above the 200-day SMA leaves the bearish view in place and could see a fresh test of the lows of last week.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver’s bounce stalls

Last week’s rally ran out of steam at $24 on Thursday and Friday, and we have seen some additional weakness this morning which has put the price back below the highs of September and October around $23.60. A drop back below the 200-day SMA and $23 would bolster the bearish view, and open the way to the 50-day SMA and then the lows of November around $22. A reversal back above $24 would be needed to suggest that the buyers are back in charge.

[MongiIG]

WTI stalls, Chicago wheat slides while orange juice trades in record highs

Outlook on light crude oil, Chicago wheat and orange juice as US dollar continues to slide.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 11:22

WTI grapples with resistance

WTI continues to trade around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.97 per barrel, having risen by over 6% from last week’s low ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting at which additional output cuts are on the table. A rise above the 200-day SMA, tentative October-to-November downtrend line and Monday’s high at $77.97 to $78.45 has the mid-November high at $79.66 in its sights ahead of the early October low at $81.21. Potential slips may find support around the $74.92 early November low. While remaining above it, upside pressure is expected to dominate.

Source: ProRealTime

Chicago Wheat prices drop to one-month low

Chicago Wheat prices continue to come off their early November $617 high and now trade in one-month lows whilst slipping towards the 12 October low at $563. Further down lies the late September trough at $552. Potential resistance above the $575 late October low comes in along the breached September-to-November uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $589.90 to $589.92.

Source: ProRealTime

Orange juice futures trade in new record highs

Front month orange juice futures have risen for six straight days. They are now trading above their previous all-time high at 416.34 as shifting weather patterns and the spread of citrus greening, a bacterial disease transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid insect, detrimentally affects top producers Florida, Brazil and Mexico. A resistance line going back to February at 428.60 represents the next technical upside target for the front month futures contract. Minor support comes in at Monday’s 409.88 low, ahead of the psychological 400.00 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil stalls ahead of OPEC+ but gold and silver remain bid.

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver ahead of Thanksgiving.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 11:21

Brent crude oil volatility falls away

Brent crude oil’s swift 7.5% bounce back from last week’s low is beginning to lose upside momentum as volatility seems to be on the wane ahead of Wednesday’s US EIA crude oil inventories and this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. The oil price is now trading back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.14 per barrel and has the October low and mid-November high at $83.12 to $83.79 in its sights. If overcome, the early November low at $84.53 will be in focus, as well as the $85.89 late October low. Support below the 200-day SMA can be seen at the $81.68 late August low ahead of the psychological $80 mark and the 8 November low at $79.18.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold price approaches its October peak

Gold’s advance from its $1,932 per troy ounce low as the US dollar is depreciating amid lower US Treasury yields is approaching its October peak at $2,009. Once bettered, the August 2020, March 2022 and May 2023 peaks at $2,070 to $2,082 will be back in the frame. Potential slips may find support around the mid-November high at $1,993 ahead of the June and July peaks at $1,987 to $1,983.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver price attacks its recent high at $24.14

The price of spot silver remains on an upward trajectory with last week’s $24.14 per troy ounce high and the May-to-November downtrend line at $24.20 being eyed. If overcome, the June peak at $24.52 should be back in play. Support can be found between the late September and October highs at $23.77 to $23.70. Further potential support can be spotted along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.31 and Monday’s low at $23.25. While it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the short-term uptrend will stay intact.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, gold and silver muted amid low volume trading

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver as Thanksgiving holiday leads to drop in volatility amid low volume trading.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 November 2023 12:57

Brent crude oil volatility drops further still

Brent crude oil’s volatility is on the wane following a dispute among OPEC+ members over output quotas and the postponement of this weekend’s meeting to the 30 November clouded the supply outlook. The oil price remains below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.10 per barrel but may still reach the October low and mid-November high at $83.12 to $83.79 over the coming days. If bettered, the early November low at $84.53 could be in sight, as well as the $85.89 late October low. Support is seen around the psychological $80 mark and the 8 November low at $79.18.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold price trades around the $2,000 mark

Gold’s advance from its $1,932 per troy ounce low has come close to its October peak at $2,009 without so far being able to overcome it. Once that is the case, the August 2020, March 2022 and May 2023 peaks at $2,070 to $2,082 would likely be in focus. Potential slips may find support around the mid-November high at $1,993 ahead of the June and July peaks at $1,987 to $1,983.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver price consolidates below its recent high at $24.14

The price of spot silver stalls below last week’s $24.14 per troy ounce high and the May-to-November downtrend line at $24.18. If exceeded, the June peak at $24.52 could be back in the picture. Support can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.31 and Monday’s low at $23.25. While it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the short-term uptrend will stay intact.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold price rises while oil and natural gas prices fall back

Gold has begun the week with a move above $2000, but oil and natural gas have come under pressure once more.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 11:36

Gold clambers above $2000

The price has moved above $2000 in early trading today, and has moved (briefly) above the highs from the first half of October. This has continued the rally from the higher low established in early November, and now appears to open the way to the highs of May at $2060. Sellers will need a reversal back below $1960 to indicate another attempt to test the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is underway.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI falls at start of the week

After repeatedly attempting to move back above the 200-day SMA over the past three weeks, the price is once again on a lower trajectory. The November lows around $72.60 are the next target. A close below this would also put the price below the highs of May and June that marked resistance before crude’s summer rally. Additional downside then beckon towards the June lows at $67.40. Buyers will need a move back above the 200-day SMA to establish a short-term low. This might then see the price target $81 once more.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas falls below 100-day moving average

Natural gas’ decline from the highs of late October continues, putting severe pressure on the uptrend of the last few months. The price has opened below the 100-day SMA for the first time since early June, and currently sits at its lowest level since early October. More declines would target the 200-day SMA, while a move above 3130 would be needed to put the price back above trendline resistance from the late October high.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil rises ahead of OPEC+ meeting but gold, silver stall

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver amid a depreciating US dollar and global falling yields.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 November 2023 11:41

Brent crude oil price rises to two-week high ahead of OPEC+ meeting

The front month Brent crude oil futures contract has risen to a two-week high, between the October low and mid-November high at 83.12 to 83.79, ahead of today’s postponed OPEC+ meeting at which further output cuts may be on the table. A rise above this resistance area would confirm a medium-term bottoming formation and would put the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 86.60 on the map. Potential slips may find support along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 82.08 and around the 81.68 late August low.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold consolidates around the $2,050 level

Gold’s advance from its $1,932 per troy ounce low on a weaker US dollar and rapidly falling US Treasury yields has so far taken it to $2,052. Once bettered, the August 2020, March 2022 and May 2023 highs at $2,070 to $2,082 will be in focus. This resistance zone is expected to cap, at least for a few days. Good support remains to be seen between the October and last week’s highs at $2,009 to $2,007.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver trades near its three-month high

Spot silver reached its July peak at $25.26 before being capped by it on Wednesday. A rise above this level would take the precious metal to levels last traded in May and lead to the April and May highs at $26.09 to $26.13 being in focus. Minor support can be seen around the $25.01 late August high with more significant support coming in between the late April low and early June high at $24.52 to $24.50.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold price and natural gas price consolidate, but WTI comes under fresh pressure

It is a mixed start to the month for commodity prices; gold and natural gas are relatively quiet, while oil prices have fallen after an OPEC production cut failed to meet expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 01 December 2023 12:22

Gold price rally stalls

The price seems to have topped out for now, though a short-term bearish view would likely need a close back below $2000 to suggest another test of rising support. On the upside, the $2060 level remains as the key area to watch in the short-term, along with the $2075/$2080 area that has marked gold’s highs since 2020.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI falls after OPEC news

OPEC’s production cuts were not enough, it seems to deliver a sustained bounce in oil prices. Instead, Thursday saw the price push briefly above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), before dropping back again. This now means we wait to see if recent support around $72 could be tested, with a move below this creating a lower low.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas holds above 200-day MA

Here the price has managed to stabilise around the 200-day SMA, and a close back above 2900 might suggest a test of recent trendline resistance. If the price can claw its way back above 3000, buyers might emerge once again. Alternately, 2640 and 2540 become the next short-term targets to the downside.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold price hits new peak, and silver price makes headway, but Brent crude oil falls again

Precious metals are on the up once more following Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, but the fallout from the OPEC meeting continues to weigh on oil prices.

Source:Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 December 2023 13:08

Gold surges to new peak

Gold prices shot to a new record high overnight, continuing the surge from Friday’s session. Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday left markets continuing to expect that no more Fed rate hikes are on their way. This sent gold flying and pushed the dollar lower. The move puts the price firmly above the highs seen in 2022 and 2023, but the price does look overextended in the short-term. Some consolidation around current levels, or even a short-term drop back towards $2050 might not be entirely surprising.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent falls further

OPEC’s decision to go for voluntary cuts to production last week failed to support oil prices, and now the next move appears to be a test of the November low. The past month has seen the price try and fail to hold above the 200-day SMA, and now the November low around $77.30 comes into view. Below this would see the price head back in the direction of the late Spring/early Summer lows around $72. Buyers will need a close back above $80 to suggest another attempt to challenge the 200-day SMA could develop.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver hits six-month plus high

Silver’s move on Friday was not quite as exuberant as gold’s, but it still managed to hit its highest level in over six months. The rally of the past three weeks has barely halted. From a higher low in early November, when the price lagged behind its more expensive cousin, silver then surged through the 50- and 200-day SMAs. It has now cleared the August and July highs, and now the May peak around $26.20 comes into view. A move back below $25 would be needed to signal that some short-term consolidation had begun.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, silver rally on falling US dollar while US natural gas hits six-month low

Outlook on gold, silver and US natural gas amid a weakening US dollar.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 14 December 2023 12:27

Gold shoots back up to $2,039 on dovish Fed

Spot gold rallied from this week’s low at $1,974 per troy ounce to $2,039 where the breached October-to-December uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, acts as short-term resistance, together with the 7 December high at $2,040. If overcome, the $2,050 zone would be next in line, ahead of the 2020, 2022 and May 2023 highs at $2,070 to $2,082. The December 5 low at $2,010, together with the late October high and the 21 November high at $2,009 to $2,007 should offer support.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver swiftly reverses its descent

Spot silver’s decline from its current December peak at $25.77 per troy ounce, a near seven-month high, has been followed by a rapid drop to Wednesday’s $22.51 low. From there another swift rally is currently taking place on the back of a dovish Fed and falling US dollar. Now that the 22 September and 20 October highs at $23.70 to $23.77 have been overcome, the August peak at $25.01 is back in sight. Support below $23.77 to $23.70 is seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.55.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures prices try to hold above six-month low

US natural gas futures descent from their ten-month high at 3.665 in late October has taken these to a six-month low at 2.211 on Wednesday before recovering slightly amid a weakening US dollar. Good resistance can be spotted between the downtrend channel resistance line and this week’s price gap at 2.438 to 2.508. Were this week’s low at 2.211 to give way, the April-to-June lows at 2.158 to 2.063 would be in focus.

Source: ProRealTime