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Gold and natural gas trends remain in play, as Brent crude builds potential bearish reversal

Gold bulls and natural gas bears remain in charge as the recently reliable trends continue to play out. Meanwhile, Brent crude remains within discovery mode as we await a bearish reversal confirmation signal.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 January 2023 

Gold easing back within bullish phase

Gold managed to push sharply higher yesterday, with price moving into a fresh nine-month high after respecting trendline support once again.

That line has held up price over the course of the past week, although we are ultimately looking at a market that has proven remarkably resilient and consistent since the beginning of November.

While we are seeing price turn lower today, there is a good chance that this represents another short-term pullback before the bulls come back into play.

With that in mind, bullish positions are favoured unless price breaks below the recent swing-low of $1920.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_01_26-08h19.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns lower from resistance zone, but questions remain

Brent crude has been reversing lower since Monday’s rise into a fresh seven-week high.

Notably, that recent period of strength took us into the confluence of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and descending trendline. The fact that we have seen price turning lower from that wider resistance zone does highlight the potential for a bearish reversal from here. However, a move through the $84.02 level would be required to bring greater confidence of a bearish reversal playing out from here.

Keep an eye out for the $85.16-85.89 Fibonacci support zone as an area that needs to break for the time being.

LCO-4-hours-2023_01_26-08h30.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas declines continue as price hits 21-month low

Natural gas has continued its declines, with price falling back into levels not seen since April 2021. For the consumer, this is great news, and for traders there will be an appreciation of just how consistent this sell-off has been.

The four-hour chart below highlights the fact that this latest leg lower has taken price well away from the recent channel. That raises the likeliness of an upturn to provide another retracement phase before long.

However, when that rebound does come, it would be viewed as a likely retracement before price turns lower again. A move up through $3.322 would be required to negate the ongoing bearish outlook.

NG-4-hours-2023_01_26-08h47.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold prices decline, while WTI drifts sideways and lumber consolidates around three-month high

 

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023 

Gold goes into reverse

The price suffered a reverse on Thursday that wiped out Wednesday’s strong push higher.

However, the price continued to find buyers in the zone above $1920, indicating further reservoirs of bullish momentum could yet appear to provide a new push to the upside. The $1980 zone continues to be the near-term target in any fresh move higher.

If sellers can get the price below $1920 then it may be enough to trigger a substantial decline that sees the price reverse some of January’s gains.

However, it would likely take a move right back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and below to suggest this bounce has moved into a bearish phase.

Gold_270123.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI hovers beneath 100-day MA

Another push higher on Thursday faltered at the 100-day SMA, leaving the price poised below resistance.

Despite some strong attempts lately to clear the 100-day SMA, the price has been unable to hold above it. A reversal back below $79 might signal that the sellers are in control once again. This might then open the way to the January lows, around $72.80, while further declines target the December low just above $70.

Buyers will need the price to clear the zone around $82.30, since this has been a key battleground since October. This would then open the way to a move to the October and November highs around $92.

WTI_271022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber hits three-month high

The surge from the January low has continued, with a huge price rebound that nonetheless leaves the downtrend intact.

Sellers will be watching for a reversal back below 46,000 that might precipitate a fresh move to the downside, targeting the January low.

Continued gains above 50,000 would perhaps indicate a neutral short-term view that results in a push towards the 200-day SMA, without necessarily confirming that a new uptrend has begun.

Lumber_270122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent crude consolidate, as natural gas drops into 21-month low

Gold and Brent crude struggle to maintain recent gains, while natural gas collapses into a fresh 21-month low.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023 

Gold consolidates as stocks head lower

Gold has struggled to maintain its upward trajectory of late, with the precious metal losing some of its shine thanks to a similar sideways trajectory for the US dollar.

A resurgence in the dollar could bring about a turn lower for the price of gold, meaning that there is also a likely positive correlation between equities and precious metals for the time being.

Nonetheless, from a purely technical standpoint, the recent consolidation phase continues to point towards another move higher as long as price does not break back down through the most recent swing-low of $1911.

Should that occur, it would make sense to expect a potential move lower for gold.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_01_30-08h14.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude turning lower from resistance zone

Brent crude has been struggling to maintain its upward trajectory over the past week, with price starting to weaken from a key resistance zone.

The descending trendline and 100-simple moving average (SMA) have converged to bring a key area that could see the wider downtrend kick in once again.

The stochastic oscillator provides another potential signal that the bears could come back into play once again here, with the break through the 80 threshold highlighting a reversal in momentum.

Looking back at previous occasions that we have seen this signal, we have seen periods of weakness following each of the past five signals (as shown by vertical dotted lines).

For a bearish confirmation signal, watch for a break below the $83.97 swing-low.

LCO-Daily-2023_01_30-08h26.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas continues its declines, as price hits 21-month low

Natural gas has been hit hard over the course of the past five months, with price falling back from almost $10 to the sub-$3 mark we see today.

As we look to emerge from a largely mild European winter, the healthy stockpiles largely bring the conversation of a potential squeeze in prices to an end. Whether that issue resurfaces with regards to next winter remains to be seen, but sentiment has clearly taken a hit of late.

Nonetheless, there will likely be a point where the price of natural gas is deemed to have gone too far, with current prices trading back within a crucial historical zone that has previously held price for an extended period.

While there is a chance that that the bulls come back in at some point, the downtrend still remains in play as highlighted on the four-hour chart.

A rise up through $3.322 would signal a potential bullish reversal coming into play. Until then, the bearish trend remains the dominant force that should continue to send prices lower.

NG-4-hours-2023_01_30-08h53.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium prices drop ahead of central bank meetings

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium in view of this week’s Fed, ECB and BoE meetings.

bg_oil_gettyimages_865943750.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023

Brent crude oil slips to 55-day SMA

Brent crude oil last week again failed at its key $87.99 to $89.35 resistance zone, made up of the mid-October low and December high, as traders await rate decisions by the likes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and their impact on the demand for oil.

With the January support line having been slipped through this week, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83.99 and at the 19 January low at $83.98 are being revisited. Failure at these levels on a daily chart closing basis, would indicate that at least a short-term top is being formed with the 21 November low at $82.32 and the November trough at $80.81 being in focus.

While the $83.98 level underpins on a daily chart closing basis, however, another attempt to break through the mid-October low to January highs at $87.99 to $89.35 may unfold.

Having said that, only a rise and daily chart close above the $89.35 early December high would indicate that a technical bottom has been formed with the October and November highs as well as the 200-day SMA at $96.91 to $99.60 then representing upside targets.

31012023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold retraces lower from its nine-month high at $1,949

Last week’s rise in the price of gold to a new nine-month high at $1,942 per troy ounce has been followed by a steady retracement lower towards the November-to-January uptrend line at $1,908 as traders await a plethora of interest rate decisions by the likes of the Fed, ECB and BoE.

Support below the uptrend line can be spotted at the $1,897 mid-January trough. Were it to be slipped through, a deeper correction lower may be witnessed with the June 2022 high at $1,877 being eyed. Immediate resistance is to be found at the $1,929 mid-January high and also at Monday’s $1,934 high.

Only a currently unexpected advance above the recent high at $1,949 would put the $1,959 January 2021 peak and then the April 2022 peak at $1,998 as well as the psychological $2,000 mark back on the map.

These levels remain in focus as long as the 18 January low at $1,897 and the March 2022 lows at $1,896 to $1,891 aren’t being slipped through.

31012023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Aluminium has been rejected by its seven-month high

Aluminium’s near 20% January rally on expectations that China’s swift reopening will lead to higher demand for the metal has taken it to a seven-month high at $2,678 per metric ton. This level could not, however, be overcome last week with the metal falling back to its $2,555 mid-January low this week, a slip through which would confirm a minor top being formed.

A drop through the $2,555 low would engage 200-day SMA at $2,493. Minor resistance can now be spotted at the $2,576 December high and also at last Friday’s $2,607 low.

31012023XALUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold jittery ahead of FOMC, as Brent crude and natural gas look at risk of further downside

Gold starts to show signs of jitters ahead of the FOMC, as natural gas and Brent crude look set for potential weakness ahead.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 February 2023 

Gold jitters evident ahead of FOMC

Gold has seen a pick up in volatility this week, with the precious metal managing to spike higher after a decline that took price back down towards the $1896 support zone yesterday.

The wider trend remains undeniably bullish, with the trend of higher lows providing a framework that brings expectations of further gains. Nonetheless, with the FOMC bringing greater uncertainty for the dollar, it is worthwhile expecting to see volatility today.

From a technical perspective, a break back down through the $1896 level would be required to bring an end to this intraday uptrend. Until then, further upside looks likely.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_01-08h50.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude showing signs of weakness from trendline resistance

Brent crude has started to show signs of weakness after a period of strength that brought price back up into a wider descending trendline last week.

The wider trend therefore threatens to kick-in once again from this region. Crucially, we have subsequently seen price turn lower to break the $84.02 swing-low.

With that in mind, there is a good chance that the current move higher could be a retracement before crude heads lower. Keep an eye out for the Fibonacci resistance zone up ahead as a potential area where the bears come back into play ($86.77-87.63).

A move up through the $89.01 level would be required to bring an end to this current bearish outlook.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_01-09h01.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas downtrend continues despite attempt to regain ground

Natural gas has been hit hard over the course of the past two months, with price losing 60% over the course of December and January.

That clear downtrend brings expectations of another leg lower despite the gains we save seen yesterday. The ability to maintain the pattern of lower highs does bring a need to reverse lower before the $2.907 mark.

With that in mind, further downside looks likely from here, with a push up through that recent swing-high required to signal a more protracted period of upside.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_01-09h13.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold boosted by weak dollar, as natural gas and Brent crude prices head lower

A FOMC-driven dollar decline has helped gold, but natural gas and Brent crude look set for further downside.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 02 February 2023 

Gold uptrend continues after FOMC boost

Gold has managed to surge into a fresh nine-month high after Jerome Powell helped drive the US dollar lower once again.

That dollar slide saw gold push through the $1949 resistance level, following on from a recent deep pullback that provided us with yet another higher low.

With that in mind, the trend continues to roll onwards, with the latest low of $1901 now providing us with the level to break if the bears are to gain any foothold.

Until then, further upside looks likely.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_02-08h04.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rolls over as wider downtrend kicks in

Brent crude looks set for another bearish phase, with the recent rally into trendline resistance finally seeing the wider downtrend kicking in once again.

The move through $84.02 and subsequent rebound looks to have provided a bearish head and shoulders formation here. Ultimately, we have now moved from creating fresh highs, to a situation where Brent trades in a series of lower highs and lows.

For now, there is a good chance that we tick higher to retrace the latest move lower, but any rebound would be deemed a selling opportunity as long as we do not break through the $86.18 swing-high.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_02-08h14.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas falls into yet another low within downtrend

Natural gas has been hit hard over the course of the past six weeks, with price moving in a highly consistent and predictable manner.This is the perfect trading environment given the reliable formation of lower highs and lower lows seen over that period.

Once again, we have seen price fall into a fresh long-term low today (22-month), with further downside expected as a result. As such, short positions remain favoured unless we see price break back up through the $27.89 resistance level.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_02-08h36.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and coffee prices drop back

Commodity prices received a knock as the dollar strengthened, pushing gold and coffee back from multi-month highs while oil’s decline continued.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 February 2023 

Gold drops back from $1950

Gold’s exuberance was checked on Thursday, with the price reversing from the nine-month high.

Perhaps this now points towards a move lower in the short-term that may result in a higher low. For this the price will need to breach $1900, which provided support on Tuesday and earlier in January.

A first destination for this would be the $1870 area, followed up by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Gold_030223.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI slump pushes lower

The price continued to decline on Thursday, falling to a three-week low.

It continues to look like a lower high was made in the second half of January around $82 and the 100-day SMA. A continued decline, backed up by a falling daily MACD, suggests a move back to the January low at $73.40 and then on to the December low just above $70 is now possible.

A reversal back above $79 would be needed to suggest another attempt to clear the 100-day SMA and then the $82 level is developing.

WTI_030223.pngSource: ProRealTime

Coffee weakens after big run higher

Coffee’s huge rally off the January lows suffered a severe check this week, though the price is holding above the 200-day SMA for now.

This may be the lower high that sellers have been looking for, if they think that the post-December 2021 downtrend is still intact, a view supported by the declining 200-day SMA. A similar bounce in July and August then reversed course, which might provide a hope of a new decline.

Additional gains would target 2160, and then to 2300+, the August 2022 peak.

Coffee_030223.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude, and natural gas head lower, as payrolls strengthen the dollar

US payrolls volatility brings gold and Brent crude declines, with natural gas similarly looking set for further downside.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 February 2023 

Gold collapse signals potential bearish reversal

Gold ended last week with a sharp bout of volatility, as price collapsed by almost $100 in 36-hours.

A week dominated by central banks ended with a bang as the non-farm payrolls figure jumped to a six-month high of 517k. The potential monetary policy implications for this strength brought significant dollar gains, with gold reversing sharply lower as a result. The decline through $1896 and $1868 brought an end to the recent bullish trend of higher lows, with further downside looking likely as a result.

Near-term, we are seeing some tentative gains, but that looks to be another pause before the bears drive the price of gold lower once again. Greater confidence of that next leg lower comes with a break below the $1861 low established on Friday.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_06-08h08.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude takes a breather after recent collapse

Brent crude finally gave way last week, with trendline resistance and the wider bearish trend providing the environment for prices to head lower once again.

Thankfully that bearish turn came to fruition, with the selling pressure really ramping up on Friday.

Much like gold we are seeing some tentative gains this morning. However, this is viewed as a retracement phase before the bears come back into play once again.

As such, short positions are favoured unless we see price rise up through the recent swing-high of $84.16.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_06-08h08.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas downtrend remains as prices hit two-year low

Natural gas has been one of the most consistent losers over the course of the past two months, with last week seeing prices fall back down into the lowest level since January 2021.

The four-hour chart highlights how reliable this downturn has been, with price looking likely to turn lower once again after an initial gap higher this morning.

A push up through the $2.608 and $2.789 levels would bring about a more positive outlook for this market. However, until that happens, it looks likely that we will see further downside for natural gas.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_06-08h22.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI rallies while gold holds and aluminium slips

Outlook on WTI crude oil, gold and aluminium amid Turkish earthquake woes.

bg_oil_gettyimages_865943750.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 February 2023 

WTI crude oil recovers on supply concerns

WTI crude oil is seen bouncing off Monday’s low at $72.50 per barrel for a second day in a row on supply concerns following the temporary precautionary shut down until the end of the week of the Turkish Ceyhan oil terminal, which can export up to a million barrels of crude per day, after a major earthquake befell the region and on optimism regarding China’s demand.

Over the weekend International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director, Fatih Birol, said that China’s economic recovery could be stronger than expected which should boost demand for oil by the world’s largest importer.

It should also be noted that the European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products came into effect on Sunday. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.59 is now in focus, together with the mid-January low and 3 February high at $78.16 to $78.45 which may offer resistance. If overcome, however, a rise back towards the upper end of the December-to-February sideways trading band around the $83.00 mark may once again ensue.

Good support can now be spotted between the January and current February lows at $72.64 to $72.50, with further support sitting at the $70.25 December trough.

07022023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold hovers above its one-month low at $1,862

Last Thursday’s rise in the price of gold to a new nine-month high at $1,959 per troy ounce was swiftly followed by a bearish engulfing day on the candlestick chart on Friday amid much stronger than expected US employment data which pointed to more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and pushed the implied fed funds and bank rates up by about 10 basis points.

The gold price on Friday thus dropped to a one-month low at $1,862, above which it has been hovering in very low volatility since. This level is likely to soon give way, though with the 55-day SMA at $1,843 then being eyed. Further down sits the $1,833 to $1,825 support area which contains the mid-to-late December highs and the early January low.

Resistance lies at the $1,897 to $1,900 mid-to-late January lows.

07022023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Aluminium trades at near one-month low

Aluminium’s 5% slide from last week’s high on the back of a stronger US dollar has taken the metal to a near one-month low, close to the 55- and 200-day SMAs at $2,478 to $2,476 per metric ton which may offer support this week.

Good resistance can be spotted between the mid- and late January lows at $2,555 and more significant resistance between the January and last week’s highs at $2,648 to $2,678.

07022023XALUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price and oil price rally, as lumber price drops back

Gold and oil have managed to push higher, recovering some of last week’s losses. Meanwhile, lumber has fallen again.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 February 2023 

Gold pushes higher

After the steep losses of Thursday and Friday, the price has attempted to edge higher.

A higher low could be in the process of forming, though if the price breaches $1861 this view would be cancelled out. This would then bring the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) into view, and may well result in additional losses down towards $1800.

A weaker US dollar might provide hope of a bounce that could set up a move back towards $1950.

Gold_080223.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI moves back above 50-day MA

US crude oil has clawed back Friday’s losses, rebounding from the lows of the week.

Having held the $72.80 area that was also support in early January, a move back towards the 100-day SMA could be in the offing. Above this, the January highs around $82 act as possible resistance.

Having prompted a reversal that, for the moment, cancels out a bearish view, buyers will want to see a move above $84 if they are to lay the foundations of a move towards the 200-day SMA.

A drop back below $72 is needed to revive the bearish view which seemed so strong on Friday, and would then open the way to $70 and lower.

WTI_080223.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber losses accelerate

After another day of losses, a lower high for lumber could be in place.

A reversal from below the 200-day SMA would seem to bolster the bearish case, especially since the price failed to break above 54,000. This had acted as resistance back in October as well. Further declines target the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, before moving to the January low around 36,400.

Buyers will need to see a move above 54,000 and the 200-day SMA to suggest that a more bullish view prevails.

Lumber_080223.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold on the rise, as Brent crude and natural gas show signs of impending weakness

Ongoing trends look likely to continue, with gold grinding higher as Brent crude and natural gas show signs of potential impending weakness.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023 

Gold grinds higher after collapse into trendline support

Gold ended last week with a bang as price collapsed into a fresh four-week low.

However, despite growing calls for a reversal across a number of asset classes, this week has seen equity markets and the dollar turn back in the direction of their prevailing trend.

Given the close correlation between the dollar and gold, this signals the potential for another move higher for precious metals if money does not flow into the dollar.

For gold, the current grind higher looks likely to continue, with a break back below the recent low of $1861 required to create a fresh bearish outlook.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_09-07h46.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rebound takes price back up towards descending trendline

Brent crude has spent much of the week regaining lost ground following a bearish turn that saw $10 sliced off the price in the space of a fortnight.

The wider trend does remain bearish, with the descending trendline and Fibonacci resistance levels bringing the potential for another bearish turn before long.

With price currently at the 61.8% retracement ($85.20), there is a good chance we see the bears come into play before long. Watch for a move through 80 on the stochastic to signal a bearish turn from a momentum perspective.

To the upside, we would need to see a push up through the $89.01 resistance level to bring confidence of a more protracted bullish rebound.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_09-08h01.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas turns lower from Fibonacci resistance

Natural gas has turned lower once again after a rebound in the early part of the week.

This is a market that has been a consistent performer for the bears, with the relatively balmy European winter ensuring that storage levels remain well topped up throughout the drawdown period of the year.

While we did see a push into the 76.4% Fibonacci level on Tuesday, price has been reversing lower in line with the wider bearish trend.

With a very consistent bearish trend still in play, we would need to see a push up through the $2.789 swing-high to bring about a more positive outlook. Until then, further downside looks likely.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_09-08h14.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold consolidates as Brent crude and natural gas rally into Fibonacci resistance

Gold and natural gas consolidate as we await the next move. Meanwhile, Brent crude has rallied into a confluence of Fibonacci and trendline resistance.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 February 2023 

Gold consolidates below trendline resistance

Gold has been consolidating since Thursday's decline through trendline support, with price falling into a one-month low.

With price having found resistance at the descending trendline, there is a chance of another leg lower before long. However, it is worthwhile noting the existence of the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $1857, which appears to be holding strong thus far.

With that in mind, a break up through the $1890 swing-high would be required to bring about a fresh bullish signal for gold.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_13-07h42.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rises into Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has been on the rise over the course of the past week, with price pushing up into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at $86.65.

The confluence of trendline resistance and the 76.4% Fibonacci level brings a key potential turning point for Brent crude. A break back below the $82.93 swing-low support level would be required to bring expectations of a bearish reversal from here.

With that in mind, traders should watch for whether we break up through this resistance zone or back down through the $82.93 level to bring a fresh directional bias.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_13-07h46.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas downtrend holds but declines appear to be slowing

Natural gas has been a consistent underperformer over the course of 2023 thus far, with the market providing a reliable multi-month downtrend.

The recent 76.4% Fibonacci retracement gave way to a decline that failed to break into a new low. With price back up into a new 76.4% retracement, there is a good chance we turn lower once again here.

To the upside, a break through the $2.683-2.789 resistance zone would negate the downtrend and point towards a potential period of upside to come.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_13-07h55.pngSource: ProRealTime
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All eyes are riveted on US inflation data with regards to WTI, gold and copper

Outlook on WTI crude oil, gold and copper ahead of all-important US inflation data.

BG_copper_9002798.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 February 2023 

WTI crude oil nears key resistance

The advance in WTI crude oil is beginning to lose upside momentum as traders wait to see what the January US inflation reading, out at 13:30 GMT today, will bring to the table.

The price of oil has been oscillating since mid-November between roughly $83 per barrel and $70 per barrel with it having swiftly recovered from its early February low at $72.50 but so far not having reached its key resistance area at $81.33 to $83.30. It consists of the mid-October low and December-to-January highs and may well cap once more.

Should a continued advance take the price of WTI to above its $83.30 early December high on a daily chart closing basis, though, a major bottom will have been formed with not only the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $89.92 but also the October and November highs at $92.70 to $92.95 being in sight.

Slips should find minor support along the 55-day SMA at $77.77 and, below it, at last Thursday’s low at $76.70. If fallen through, the January and February lows at $72.64 to $72.50 might be back in the picture.

14022023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold remains under pressure

The speed of the decline in the price of gold from its nine-month high at $1,959 per troy ounce is slowing down but nonetheless it has now reached the 55-day SMA at $1,853 which may offer short-term support ahead of today’s widely anticipated US inflation data for January.

Should it surprise to the upside, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to remain hawkish which should lead to a stronger US dollar and thus a weaker gold price which may then slide to its early January low at $1,826. Together with the early December high at $1,811 it may offer good support, though.

A resumption of the November-to-February uptrend would only become feasible if a rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at $1,890 were to be seen.

14022023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper recovers from early February low

Copper is seen bouncing off its early February low at $8,809 per ton as traders await January US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday which is expected to come in at 0.5% month-on-month (0.4% for core inflation) and 6.2% year-on-year versus 6.5% in the previous month.

A rise above last week’s high at $9,064 is needed, for a bullish reversal to be seen, however. If so, a gradual advance towards the $9,951 January high may ensue.

A slip through last week’s low at $8,809 would put the 55-day SMA and the November-to-February uptrend line at $8,731 to $8,706 back on the map.

14022023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Stronger dollar drives gold, oil and platinum lower

Commodity prices have fallen back in early trading, with gold prices under particular pressure.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 February 2023 

Gold hits six-week low

After an attempt at gains last week, the price has now taken a fresh tumble, falling to a six-week low.

The price has now dropped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), marking a dramatic change from the sharp upward move of December. Additional declines now target the $1810/$1820 area that marked out resistance on the way up. This is then followed up by $1800 itself, tested last August.

Buyers will be on the lookout for a reversal, but for a bullish view to prevail we need to see a recovery above $1850.

Gold_150223.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI reverses course

The latest bounce here seems to have run its course, and now attention focuses on whether the stronger dollar can drive the price lower.

After bouncing off the 50-day SMA yesterday, the price has now reversed course and is heading lower. A close below the 50-day would likely provide the signal that the sellers are in charge once again, and that a decline towards the February low at $73 is a possibility. Below this the $70 low from December comes into view.

Buyers will be hoping that this weakness is a temporary reaction to the gains from the February low, and that a revival above $80 and then above the 100-day SMA can provide fresh bullish momentum.

WTI_150223.pngSource: ProRealTime

Platinum drops below 200-day MA

The reversal here has taken the price below the 200-day SMA, wiping out all the gains from the beginning of November.

Additional declines would now target the October lows at 870, where the price to found short-term support, while below this the 830 area from July and September is the next level to watch.

So far there is little sign of a bounce, and for a reversal to take hold we would need to see a recovery back above the 200-day SMA.

Platinum_150223.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and natural gas at risk of another turn lower

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas look at risk of further downside, although key levels provide hurdles that need to be overcome to better define sentiment.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023 

Gold likely to fall further despite retracement

Gold has started to regain lost ground today, coming off the back of the latest decline and subsequent five-week low yesterday.

The precious metal has been under pressure thanks to slowing US inflation declines and improved economic data, with recent payrolls and retail sales data serving to highlight the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces little grounds for a turnaround from their hawkish policy stance.

With an intraday downtrend in place, there is a good chance we see the pair turn lower once again before long, with a bearish outlook holding unless price rises up through the recent swing-high of $1872.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_16-07h48.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rising back towards key resistance zone

Brent crude has been on the back foot for much of the week thus far, with price losing ground after rising into the confluence of trendline resistance and the 76.4% Fibonacci level.

From a wider perspective, there is a downtrend that could kick in here, as highlighted by the declining trendline. However, we are not out of the woods yet, with the intraday pattern of higher highs and lows maintained unless price falls back below the $82.93 level.

Instead, we have seen price reverse upwards from the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $83.83. As such, the directional bias will be better established upon a break through either $$82.94 (bearish) or $89.01 (bullish).

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_16-08h20.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas downtrend slows as price moves sideways

Natural gas has started trading in a rangebound manner throughout February thus far, bringing an end to the constant selling pressure that has been dominating over recent months.

Whether this is a bottom or simply a pause within the trend remains to be seen. However, the exit from this rangebound phase will be key. As such, it is worthwhile expecting further consolidation until we see price move through either $2.789 or $2.362.

A move through either of those will provide us with greater confidence on where this market moves from here.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_16-08h36.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and lumber prices under pressure again

A resurgent dollar has driven commodities lower, with gold having given back all the gains made since the beginning of the year.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 February 2023 

Gold slump wipes out 2023 gains

A retracement continues here, eating into the gains made since January.

For the moment, the price may yet create a higher low, and restore the uptrend. But with the price below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and no sign of a bounce, the sellers are in control. Additional declines target the 200-day SMA, but before that the $1810 zone may come into play as support.

A more bullish view requires a recovery above the 50-day SMA to suggest that a bounce may be in play once again.

Gold_170223.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI slips below 50-day MA

Despite rallies off the lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, the price slipped lower on Thursday, with a potential lower high forming.

A fresh leg lower targets the January and February lows at $72, while below this the $70 level comes into view. This would mark a resumption of the downtrend that has been in play since October last year.

Gains above $80 have been impossible to sustain this week, so a move above here and then above the 100-day SMA is needed to provide a more neutral view.

WTI_170223.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber pushes down towards January’s lows

Late January’s bounce has been dramatically reversed, leaving the downtrend intact.

A rally to the 200-day SMA has been replaced with a significant decline throughout February, trouncing bulls who hoped for a recovery. January’s lows are in sight once again, as the downtrend reasserts itself.

A revival above 45,000 might suggest that another attempt to move above the 200-day SMA is in progress.

Lumber_170223.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI and gold resume their descents as copper rallies post US President Day

Outlook on WTI crude oil, gold and copper ahead of Wednesday’s Fed minutes.

bg_oil_gettyimages_865943750.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 February 2023 

WTI crude oil drift lower continues

WTI crude oil has resumed its descent on Tuesday morning, having recovered slightly in low volume trading on Monday when US markets were shut for President’s Day.

Last week’s low at $75.33 remains in focus amid heightened geopolitical tensions due to North Korea firing a long-range ballistic missile on Saturday and as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes earlier today showed that the central bank remains hawkish, worrying investors that other central banks will remain on their tightening paths as well.

A drop through $75.33 would eye the late November low at $73.67 below which the January and February lows at $72.64 to $72.50 might be back in the picture, together with the $70.25 December low.

Immediate resistance can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.63 and further up at the 19 January low at $78.45.

21022023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold remains under pressure

The speed of the decline in the price of gold from its nine-month high at $1,959 per troy ounce is slowing down but nonetheless it last week reached the early to mid-December highs at $1,824 to $1,810 which acted as interim support.

This support zone remains in sight, though, with a fall through it eyeing the November peak at $1,786 and the 200-day SMA at $1,776 which may offer support.

Minor resistance sits at Monday’s $1,847 high and can be seen along the 55-day SMA at $1,857 as well as at the 3 February low at $1,862.

While no bullish reversal takes the price of the precious metal above its mid-February high at $1,870, the February downtrend remains firmly entrenched.

21022023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper recovers from mid-February low

Copper is seen bouncing off its mid-February low at $8,787 per ton as traders expect China’s re-opening to lead to more demand for the industrial metal with the 19 January low at $9,166 representing the first upside target ahead of the 23 and 27 January highs at $9,395 to $9,439 and then the January peak at $9,951.

Minor support is seen at the recent daily highs at $9,064 to $9,055 ahead of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes with more significant support coming in at the $8,809 to $8,787 early and mid-February lows.

While these underpin on a daily chart closing basis, the medium-term uptrend in copper remains intact.

21022023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Stronger dollar weighs on gold, oil and lumber prices

A rising dollar is hitting commodity prices, with gold, oil and lumber all dropping back in early trading.

BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 February 2023 

Gold suffers more losses

Hopes of a rebound were dashed on Tuesday, as the price shed ground, though it has yet to drop below Friday’s lows.

Additional declines from here will eat into the December 2022 gains, but so long as the price remains above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) then there is some hope for a revival in the uptrend.

Buyers will be hoping for a bounce above $1845 that can yet cement a possible higher low.

Gold_220223.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI downtrend comes back into play

The price reversed course on Tuesday, and seems poised to head lower.

Further declines would bring the 2023 low around $73 into view, while below this the $70 low from early December is the next target. This would mark a significant revival in the downtrend.

Buyers have been unable to wrest back control, and it would need a move above $80 to suggest that a more neutral view prevails.

WTI_220223.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber pushes lower

Lumber’s decline shows no sign of stopping, and with the dollar reviving and a risk off mood returning a move back to the January low could be in prospect.

Selling pressure has driven the price further below the 50-day SMA, and puts a move back to the January lows in play. Further weakness should see this low broken, and the bearish view receive further reinforcement.

After the near-straight line move for February so far, some consolidation would not be unexpected, but the bearish outlook continues to hold sway unless we see a move above 50,000.

Lumber_220223.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold attempting to recover as Brent crude and natural gas look likely head lower

Gold has started to regain some ground after falling into a key support level. Meanwhile, Brent crude and natural gas look primed for further downside to come.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 February 2023 

Gold falls into key support level

Gold has been losing ground over the course of February thus far, with the precious metal coming under pressure as risk sentiment sours to the benefit of the US dollar.

Yesterday’s FOMC minutes signalled a willingness to push rates higher yet, with some favouring a 50-basis point hike in the face of heightened recession risks. That decision to prioritise inflation over growth does highlight the importance of bringing prices down.

The declines we are seeing this morning bring price back down int the $1825 support level, which comes from the early-January low. The ability to break through this support level would be notable, with a decline through $1825-1819 signalling the next leg lower.

A bearish outlook holds unless price rebounds through the latest swing-high of $1872.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_23-08h05.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to build on head and shoulders reversal

Brent crude has been hit hard over the course of the past week, with price falling back into a fresh two-week low yesterday.

That decline comes off the back of a rally into trendline and Fibonacci resistance, with a head and shoulders formation subsequently completing to confirm the bearish reversal. We continue to build on the bearish phase, with further downside looking likely as a result.

A potential trendline lies below, although the $79.03 level represents the key level to break in a bid to extend this selloff.

A push up through the $84.06 level would be required to signal an end to this current bearish intraday pattern.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_23-08h17.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas rebound looks unlikely to last

Natural gas enjoyed a rare period of strength yesterday, with price gaining an impressive 14% from its low.

However, it is worthwhile noting that this is more a function of the fact that prices have declined to such a degree. This downtrend cannot carry on like this forever, with another two months on this trajectory taking us down to zero. Thus, traders should be on the lookout for a bullish reversal signal to come at some point.

However, we are yet to see that, with yesterday’s rally taking price into the prior swing-low of $2.362.

A rise through the $2.674 level would be required to bring about a bullish signal. Until then, another bearish turn looks likely.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_23-08h26.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold unable to move higher, but oil and sugar post recoveries

Gold prices remain under pressure, but both oil and sugar prices have been able to push higher.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 February 2023 

Gold continues to struggle

The price remains under pressure, with a firm low yet to form. However, the bounce from the October low may yet persist.

Bulls will want to see a recovery back above $1850, ideally accompanied by a bullish crossover in the MACD, in order to suggest that a higher low has formed. This would likely require a softer US dollar, this having driven the weakness in gold over the past month.

By contrast, sellers will hope that the price can record more losses, though for the moment a bearish view requires a move back below $1775 at the least.

Gold_240223.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI avoids further losses

After Wednesday’s drop further declines seemed likely, but a recovery on Thursday has put that view on ice for the time being.

In the short-term, a move above $77 would signal the break of the downward move from mid-February and put yet another test of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) into view. Above this the late January highs at $82 remain a possible barrier to upside progress. A weakening US dollar would provide the fundamental backdrop to such a move.

Alternately, sellers will want to see a move back below $74 in order to suggest the $72.70 support zone from January and February. Below this the next target is the December low around $70.60.

WTI_240223.pngSource: ProRealTime

Sugar on the up once more

After the drop from the January high, the uptrend appears to be back in play.

Sharp gains on Thursday look like they will prompt a bullish MACD crossover, pointing towards a move back to the January high. For the moment any more bearish view has been put back into limbo, and would need a reversal back below 1960 at the least to revive it.

Sugar_240223.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold declines as Brent crude and natural gas attempt to fight back

Gold looks set to continue its pullback, while Brent crude and natural gas have staged impressive rebounds that take price up towards key resistance levels.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 February 2023 

Gold continues its February decline

Gold has suffered heavy losses over the course of February thus far, with the deteriorating risk sentiment seen throughout markets bringing strength for the dollar to the detriment of gold.

The dollar resurgence that has been taking shape does spell trouble for precious metals, and thus traders should be aware of this inverse correlation.

For now, price looks to be trying to take a breather, but the bearish trend established over the course of this month does raise expectations that any near-term rebound is a selling opportunity. That view holds unless price rises through the $1846 swing-high.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_02_27-08h04.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rallies back into Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has seen plenty of volatility of late, with last week bringing sharp declines across Monday to Wednesday, while price recovered towards the end of the week.

That rebound has taken price back into the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $83.17. With price having been rolling over since the head and shoulders sell-off from trendline resistance, there is a good chance we see price reverse lower once again here.

With that in mind, a bearish outlook holds for Brent crude, with a rise through $84.06 required to negate that outlook.

LCO-4-hours-2023_02_27-08h33.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas recovery takes price up towards key resistance

Natural gas has enjoyed a rare period of upside, with price managing to recover an impressive 25% over the final three days of last week alone.

However, that is much to do with quite how much we have seen prices decline, with gas having collapsed from $10 to almost $2 in six-months. That decline cannot continue forever, but we are awaiting a signal to tell us quite when the recovery play has started.

Crucially we are seeing price push towards the key $2.69 resistance level up ahead, with a rise through the $2.69-2.79 zone signalling an end to the long-standing intraday downtrend.

As such, the ability or inability to break through that zone will be key in determining the outlook from here.

NG-4-hours-2023_02_27-08h43.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI on track for fourth monthly decline, gold and copper their first this year

Outlook on WTI crude oil, gold and copper as US dollar strengthens amid hawkish Fed.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 February 2023 

WTI on track for fourth monthly decline

WTI crude oil prices are likely to drop for a fourth consecutive month as surging US stockpiles and the prospect of further monetary tightening on the back of strong economic data outweigh demand expectations from China, the world’s largest importer, and production cuts from Russia.

While Monday’s high at $76.85 per barrel isn’t overcome, a downside bias is expected to remain in play with last week’s low at $73.85 remaining in sight. Below it and the late November low at $73.67 the December-to-February uptrend line at $73.34, together with the January and February lows at $72.64 to $72.50, should offer support ahead of the $70.25 December low.

Minor resistance above Monday’s $76.85 high can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.86 and further up at the 19 January low at $78.45.

28022023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold remains under pressure as greenback continues to strengthen

Gold continues to slide as the US dollar advances and as the inverse correlation between the two keeps rising with the psychological $1,800 mark about to be reached due to expectations of further monetary tightening being seen by the Fed.

The next lower November peak at $1,786 may soon also be in focus ahead of the 200-day SMA at $1,776 which may offer support. For now the precious metal remains within its early to mid-December highs at $1,824 to $1,810 which acts as a support zone but may soon give way.

Minor resistance above the mid-February low at $1,819 sits at $1,846 to $1,847, the 20 and 22 February highs, and can also be seen along the 55-day SMA at $1,860 as well as at the 3 February low at $1,862.

While no bullish reversal takes the price of the precious metal above these levels, the downtrend remains firmly in place.

28022023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper approaches $8,593 to $8,629 support area

As the US dollar strengthens on the back of a hawkish Fed, the price of copper declines and is fast approaching its November and December highs at $8,629 to $8,593 per ton, having last week slipped through and closed below its November-to-February uptrend line at $8,880.

Together with the 55-day SMA at $8,853, the breached uptrend line at $8,880 is likely to now act as a resistance line ahead of minor psychological resistance around the $9,000 mark. Further minor resistance can be spotted at the 8 February high at $9,064.

From a medium-term perspective, provided that last week’s high at $9,212 isn’t bettered, a slide back towards the 200-day SMA and the January low at $8,301 to $8,189 may be on the cards.

28022023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil prices rally, while lumber pushes towards 50-day MA

Gold, oil and lumber prices have all pushed higher over the past two days, with further gains seen this morning.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 March 2023 

Gold rallies for a third day

A second day of gains has seen the price rally to a three-session high, providing the foundation for a possible higher low.

A move above $1840 would likely suggest that the higher low is in place, setting up a revival of the move higher and targeting the February high at $1890.

Sellers will want to see a drop back below $1805 to indicate that the potential higher low has been negated for the time being.

Gold_010323.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI heads higher

A reversal on Tuesday saw the price head back towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), though it was unable to hold all the gains.

The downtrend remains intact, though the price has essentially been in a range since the start of the year. A break above $81 or below $72 is needed to suggest a more definite trend has emerged.

Further gains above the 50-day SMA bring the February highs around $80.50 into view.

WTI_010323.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber tests the 50-day SMA

Three days of gains have helped the commodity claw back some losses, but have done little to shift the broader view.

For the moment the reaction has carried the price to a two-week high, testing the 100-day SMA. Further gains might yet see another attempt to break above the 200-day SMA.

Alternately, a reversal back below 40,000 signals that another move to the downside is in play, and could target the December and January lows at 36,220.

Lumber_010323.pngSource: ProRealTime

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Gold, Brent crude and natural gas at risk after latest rebound

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas gain ground, but wider bearish trends continue to threaten any recovery.

BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 02 March 2023 

Gold rolling over after latest rebound

Gold has managed to claw back some of its recent losses, with price having gained $40 from the Tuesday low.

Ultimately this is being driven by wider risk sentiment, and the declines we are seeing for equities this morning come to the benefit of the dollar and detriment of gold.

With a pattern of lower highs remaining in play, it makes sense to expect further downside from here.

A rise up through the $1847 swing-high would be needed to temper those bearish expectations.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2023_03_02-07h54.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rallies into confluence of resistance

Brent crude has been on the rise of late, with strong PMI figures out of China yesterday highlighting a potential recovery in demand from the world’s second largest economy.

However, this rally has taken price back into a confluence of notable resistance level between the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), descending trendline, and wider 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As such, there is a good chance we see price turn lower once again here, with a break back down through the $82.57 swing-low bringing increased confidence of a bearish reversal.

To the upside, a move through trendline resistance would raise questions over whether this wider bearish trend will finally reverse.

LCO-4-hours-2023_03_02-08h00.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas recovery takes price up through key resistance levels

Natural gas has been one of the big losers over the course of recent months, with the collapse seeing price lose 74% in the three months into last week’s low.

However, we are finally seeing signs of potential strength with bulls driving price back up through the $2.690 and $2.789 resistance levels. That brings an end to the pattern of lower highs which has been reliably playing out throughout this selloff.

With that in mind, a more positive outlook takes hold here. As such, further upside looks likely, with a move back below $2.587 required to signal a pullback coming into play.

NG-4-hours-2023_03_02-08h16.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and natural gas on the front foot amid SVB volatility

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas show signs of a bullish shift, with the dollar easing back despite recent SVB concerns.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 March 2023 

Gold rebounds into resistance after volatile week

Gold has gapped higher as we kick off a new week, with the dollar coming under pressure despite the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.

Markets clearly remain optimistic that the fallout will be minimal, as risk attitudes appear relatively stable thus far. The ability for markets to remain optimistic is key here, with any spike in the dollar likely to drive the value of gold lower.

For now, the ability or inability to break through $1890 will provide a signal on whether we are due a protracted move higher or the recent bearish trajectory is set to continue.

XAUUSD-Daily-2023_03_13-08h24.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude turning higher after decline into key support

Brent crude has finally started to turn higher after a pullback towards the notable $80.30 support level on Friday.

The recent trend of higher lows does remain intact, with a breakout from this $80.30-86.73 zone required to provide greater clarity over the direction of the next significant move.

Until that happens, further consolidation looks likely, with another move towards the top end of that range likely in the coming days.

LCO-Daily-2023_03_13-08h27.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas retraces into Fibonacci support

Natural gas has been retreating since topping the $3.000 mark earlier in the month.

However, the rise through the $2.690 looks to have potentially provided a signal of a bottom here, bringing expectations of a potential resurgence off the back of the current pullback.

Whether or not we see that resurgence come into play remains to be seen, with the recent pullback currently respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.

As such, watch out for a potential resurgence around this area, with a break back below the prior low of $2.104 required to signal a bearish continuation for natural gas.

NG-Daily-2023_03_13-08h56.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil, gold and copper stall ahead of US CPI data release

Outlook on Brent crude crude oil, gold and copper ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI data.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 March 2023 

Brent crude oil drops to early January lows on risk-off sentiment

Brent crude oil’s decline accelerated to the downside on Monday on global risk-off sentiment as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank raised concerns about a broader financial crisis.

The oil price dipped to a ten-week low at $78.08 per barrel despite a weaker US dollar before heaving itself back towards the $80 region at the end of Monday’s session.

While Tuesday’s intraday high at $80.65 isn’t overcome, immediate downside pressure should remain in play with the February low at $79.04 representing the first downside target, followed by Monday’s through at $78.08. Were it to give way, the December-to-January lows at $75.65 to $75.32 would be targeted next.

Minor resistance above $80.65 comes in at the 17 February low at $81.62 and also at the 3 March low at $82.28. While the next higher Friday high at $83.05 isn’t overcome, downside pressure should retain the upper hand.

14032023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Strong gold rally may lose upside momentum

Gold’s three-day over 5% advance on global risk-off sentiment and flight-to-safety flows out of equities and into the precious metal is likely to pause, at least in the short-term, ahead of Tuesday’s widely awaited Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data release.

Were further upside to be witnessed, the mid-January high at $1,929 per troy ounce would be in focus, followed by the February peak at $1,959 and then probably also the major psychological $2,000 mark.

Minor support can be found at the 9 February high at $1,890 and more significant support at Friday-to-Monday’s price gap and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,871 to $1,870.

14032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper price bounces off key support amid global risk-off sentiment

Monday’s intraday slide in the price of copper on the back of global risk-off sentiment has taken it back to the technically important November-to-December highs at $8,629 to $8,593 per ton which make up a significant support area by slipping to $8,638 before rallying strongly on the back of a weaker US dollar.

A rise above Monday’s potentially bullish Hammer formation on the daily candlestick chart at $8,949 would skew the odds towards renewed upside being seen in which case a rise above the 55-day SMA at $8,950 would engage the January-to-March downtrend line at $9,010.

Support can be spotted between the early to mid-February lows at $8,817 to $8,787 with further minor support being seen at the 8 March low at $8,714.

14032023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and lumber rally, but oil drops back

Commodity prices have seen mixed fortunes this week, with gold and lumber rising but oil seeing sharp losses.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 March 2023 

Gold rally stalls

Three days of gains have seen the price recoup almost all its February losses.

The price continues to surge, and further gains will target the $1950 highs from the beginning of February. Above this the April 2022 high at $2000 is the next target.

A more bearish view would require a reversal back below $1874, which might then suggest a move back towards $1815.

Gold_150323.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI heads towards 2022 low

Over the past week the downtrend has reasserted itself, and now a test of the December low seems likely.

Since last week the price has dropped back below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and then on below the 50-day SMA. From there the next target below $70 would be the March 2021 highs at $67.75.

The price has broken below the support one around $73.50, so a rally above here might be needed to suggest that a low is in.

WTI_150323.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber moves back to 100-day MA

A revival here comes on the back of February’s huge losses, with a possible higher low pointing towards at least a short-term recovery.

Further upside above the 100-day SMA would then put the price on course to test the 200-day SMA, and then to the 54,000 highs from the end of January.

A reversal below 40,000 provides the potential for a test of last week’s lows and then onwards towards 36,540.

Lumber_150323.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil recover, but cotton prices drop

Commodities have seen a volatile week, but gold continues to make gains while oil is recouping lost ground.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 March 2023 

Gold heading to January highs

The price has continued to rally, with the $1950 highs from January still the next big target.

A dip below $1900 on Wednesday found buyers, and so long as the price remains above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) the bullish view will remain intact. Beyond $1950 the $2000 level comes back into view, a psychologically-important level.

Sellers would need to see a reversal below $1870 to set up another push towards $1810 and the lows from late February and early March.

Gold_170323.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI rallies on Russia-Saudi Arabia talks

For a second day the price has tested $66, and has continued to hold it.

After the sharp declines of the last two weeks the drop has stalled, with $66 coming into view as support. This is firmly in the zone of support that held back in November and December 2021. Below this the $62.25 level comes into view as the next potential target.

Any short-term rebound would target $71 from December, but a bigger recovery needs a move back above the $74 support zone.

WTI_170323.pngSource: ProRealTime

Cotton threatens to head lower

The modest recovery since November appears to have run its course. The price seems poised to head lower, with the October low at 7074 the main target.

It would require a move back above 8300 to suggest that buyers appear to have the upper hand once again.

Cotton_170323.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and natural gas post Fed rate hike

Outlook on Brent, gold and natural gas following Wednesday’s widely expected 25-basis point Fed rate hike.

bg%20oil%20brent%20wti%20crude%202394823Source: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 March 2023 

Brent crude oil recovery likely has further to go

Brent crude oil has risen for three consecutive days despite losing upside momentum on Wednesday afternoon when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report for the week ending 17 March showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly expanded by 1.1 million barrels to the highest level since May 2021.

The Brent crude oil chart remains bullish on the outlook for top crude importer China which according to a recent report is expected to drive a two million barrel rise in daily global oil demand this year and as Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country has decided to keep its output at a reduced level through June.

Were Wednesday’s high at $76.85 to be exceeded, the January trough at $77.65 would be next in line, followed by the February low at $79.04, both of which are likely to act as resistance, at least in the short-term.

Minor support comes in around the $75.00 mark and at Monday’s $73.71 high.

23032023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold rallies on a weaker US dollar

Gold’s short-term retracement lower from last week’s one-year high at $2,009 per troy ounce to Wednesday’s $1,935 low was followed by another up leg as the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its rates by a widely expected 25-basis points, taking the fed funds to 4.75% to 5.00% and pushing the greenback lower whilst lifting the price of the precious metal.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement to lawmakers that the US government was not considering a “blanket insurance” for bank deposits provoked a bearish reversal in US equity markets which gave the gold price a further boost with it so far having risen to $1,983.

Further up lurks the psychological $2,000 mark and Monday’s high at $2,009, a rise above which would eye the all-time high at $2,070 reached in March 2022.

Minor support remains to be seen at the $1,959 February peak and further support at Wednesday’s $1,935 low, an unexpected fall through which, for today at least, would target the 13 March high at $1,914.

23032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures continue to slide

US natural gas futures are slipping further towards their $2.105 late February low on forecasts for milder weather and as the EIA expects 2.4% less US natural gas consumption in 2023 than in 2022.

US natural gas prices dropped by around 75% from their $9.977 August 2022 peak but are currently trying to find support around the 2021 low at $2.264, having earlier this week dipped to $2.216. If slipped through, the February low at $2.105 will be back in focus below which lies the psychological $2.000 mark.

Resistance can be spotted around the $2.362 early February low and between the mid-March lows at $2.455 to $2.457.

23032023NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and wheat holding up but oil starts to fall back

While gold prices are holding near $2000 and wheat has moved higher in early trading, oil prices have come under pressure again.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 March 2023 

Gold holds near $2000

The price finds itself knocking on the door of $2000 again, having recovered from mid-week losses.

The sharp move higher is firmly intact, and with the recovery from the lows of Tuesday the uptrend has been given new impetus. This then puts the $2050 highs back in view, with the bullish view in place unless we see a drop below $1920.

After the big gains from the beginning of March, the sellers would have a tough job reversing the bullish outlook.

Gold_240323.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI in retreat again

The short-term bounce has run into some selling around $70 for a second day.

After the big move down in March the price was able to bounce from the $65 support zone, but already upside momentum is waning. Continued gains would target the $72 support zone that held in January and February.

Meanwhile, a move back down puts $65 into view as support again, and then below this the $62 level from August 2021.

WTI_240323.pngSource: ProRealTime

Wheat aims to recover in early trading

Prices have dropped here again over the past week, and now the July 2021 lows at 636 are in play once more.

After short-term gains, the price has reversed course once again, continuing the steady downtrend from the February highs and creating a lower high at 715.

While the price has edged up this morning off the lows, a move above 700 and a break of trendline resistance would be needed to open a more bullish view.

Wheat_240323.pngSource: ProRealTime
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