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WTI rallies on tightening supply while gold and natural gas prices slide

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas as bank concerns fade.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 March 2023 

Yesterday’s strong rally in WTI losing upside momentum

The over 5% rally in the price of WTI, on the back of a legal dispute which blocked around 4 000 000 barrels a day of oil exports out of Turkey and tightened supply, is taking a breather around the January and February lows at $72.50 to $72.64.

Slips should find support around Thursday’s $71.68 high and at the December $70.25 low whereas resistance sits at the 22 February low at $73.85 and along the November-to-March continuation triangle support line, now resistance line, at $74.48.

28032023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold slips as market sentiment improves

Gold’s slip from late last week’s $2,003 per troy ounce high, made marginally below its one-year high at $2,009, is still pointing towards last week’s low at $1,935 as sentiment improves and bank concerns fade with the Deutsche Bank share price regaining the majority of Friday’s steep over 8% losses.

Better-than-expected German IFO business climate data for March also helped risk-on sentiment which led to flows out of gold and into equities taking place. The business climate indicator for Germany increased to 93.3 in March, its highest level since February 2022, compared to 91.1 in February.

Were last Wednesday’s low at $1,935 to be slipped through, the 13 March high at $1,914 would be next in line. The all-time March 2022 high at $2,070 lies above the key $2,003 to $2,009 resistance zone.

28032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures continue their descent

US natural gas futures are tumbling further towards their $2.105 late February low on forecasts for milder weather and as the EIA recently forecast 2.4% less US natural gas consumption in 2023 compared to 2022.

US natural gas prices dropped by around 75% from their $9.977 August 2022 peak and remain on track to reach the February low at $2.105, below which lies the psychological $2.000 mark.

Resistance comes in along the March downtrend line at $2.290 and at Friday’s $2,363 high. Further resistance sits between the mid-March lows at $2.455 to $2.457.

28032023NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil and NY cocoa rally on tightening supply while gold remains subdued

Outlook on Brent, gold and cocoa as sentiment gradually improves.

BG_cocoa_beans_234234234.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 March 2023

Brent crude oil recovery likely has further to go

The price of Brent crude oil has risen by over 5% this week amid a dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from Turkey and as API data showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined by 6.1 million barrels last week, compared to an expected 180,000 barrel rise.

The Brent crude oil chart remains bullish on the outlook for top crude importer China which, according to a forecast by the China National Petroleum Corp, is expected to raise its oil imports by 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes.

The February low at $79.04 is now within reach, together with the minor psychological $80 mark. The area between the two levels may well act as short-term resistance, though. Further up meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.29.

Minor support below Thursday’s $77.14 high comes in around the $75.32 December low and further down at Monday’s $73.71 high.

29032023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold gives back some of its recent gains as market sentiment improves

Gold’s slip from late last week’s $2,003 per troy ounce high, made slightly below its one-year high at $2,009, is still pointing towards last week’s low at $1,935 as sentiment gingerly improves.

German GfK consumer confidence came in as expected at -29.5 for April versus a downwardly revised -30.6.

Were Monday’s trough at $1,945 to give way, Wednesday's low at $1,935 would be eyed, a fall through which would target the 3 March high at $1,914.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the precious metal price stays below Monday’s high at $1,978. Above this level sits the key $2,003 to $2,009 resistance zone and much further up the all-time March 2022 high at $2,070.

29032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

NY cocoa futures trade in three-year highs

NY cocoa futures rose to levels last traded in February 2020, hit by tight supplies in top grower Ivory Coast, and have so far come close to the $2,900 per metric ton level, above which sits the February 2020 peak at $2,933.

The price of cocoa has risen by over 30% from its October 2022 low but short-term is starting to lose upside momentum, having nearly seen eight consecutive higher daily closes since mid-March.

The cocoa price may thus soon retrace back to the $2,855 early March high which should act as support. Further support can be spotted at the $2,810 late February high.

29032023CC-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI, gold and NY cotton stall ahead of final US Q4 GDP

Outlook on WTI, gold and cotton as sentiment continues to improve as banking woes fade.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023 

WTI is losing upside momentum at technical resistance

The over 15% rally in the price of WTI from its $64.37 per barrel March low on the back of increased demand expectations from top importer China and a legal dispute which blocked around 4000,000 barrels a day of oil exports from Turkey, is stalling, having been rejected by the continuation triangle support, now resistance, line at $74.42 on Wednesday.

A slip back to the January and February lows at $72.64 to $72.50 thus looks imminent with a slide to the 23 March high at $71.69 looking possible. Further minor support sits at the December trough at $70.25.

Were Wednesday’s high at $74.40 to be exceeded, however, the mid-February low at $75.33 would be eyed, followed by the 3 March low at $75.92 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76.24.

30032023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold finds its equilibrium around the $1,970 per troy ounce mark

Gold’s retracement from late last week’s $2,003 per troy ounce high, made slightly below its one-year high at $2,009, has led to it slipping to this week’s low at $1,945 as bank fears fade.

Were Monday’s low at $1,945 to give way, last week’s low at $1,935 would be in focus, a drop through which would target the 3 March high at $1,914.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the gold price stays below Monday’s high at $1,978. Above this level sits the key $2,003 to $2,009 resistance zone and much further up the all-time March 2022 high at $2,070.

30032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

NY cotton price surge losing upside momentum

The price of NY front month cotton futures, which has risen by over 9% from last week’s $76.04 per 50,000 pound low amid weather related tightening supply, is losing upside momentum.

Even though it has broken through its May 2022 to March 2023 downtrend line, it is losing upside momentum around the 55-day SMA at $83,24 which acts as resistance.

The advance has stalled as the cotton market this week is waiting for export sales reports on what planting acres might be, which are to be published on Thursday and Friday. A rise and daily chart close above Wednesday’s $83.67 high would engage the $86.26 early March high.

Support can be spotted between the January and mid-February lows at $80.83 to $80.42 as well as along the breached downtrend line, which because of inverse polarity has become a support line, at $80.18.

30032023CT-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and coffee prices steady, while oil prices edge lower

Gold and coffee have managed to hold on to most of their recent gains, while oil is down slightly after a strong run higher from the March lows.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023 

Gold clings on near recent highs

The price continues to see plenty of volatility, but remains near recent highs.

Consolidation has been the pattern over the past two weeks, with no desire yet to move above $2000, but with buyers remaining in control and preventing any significant downside for the time being.

Overall it looks like this will resolve into a fresh move higher towards $2050, and it would need a move back below $1900 to put a more serious dent in the bullish view.

Gold_310323.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI returns to $74

Crude prices continue to surge, with WTI now closing in on the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) again.

The impressive bounce from the March lows shows no sign of stopping yet, though the downtrend of the past seven months is still intact. Any turn lower from below $80 would still constitute a lower high and leave the overall bearish view intact.

This would then suggest a fresh move to $65 is a possibility, as the downtrend reasserts itself.

WTI_310323.pngSource: ProRealTime

Coffee back to February highs

After rallying from the March lows the price looks to be preparing to push above the February highs.

Above 2200, the price will then target the August highs around 2280/2300, having traded in a wide range from 2030 to 2200 since the beginning of the year.

Coffee_310323.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold and Brent crude oil find support while copper is being capped

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and copper prices post extended Easter weekend.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 April 2023 

Brent remains sidelined in low volatility range

Brent crude oil continues to be sidelined around the $84.50 mark, having gapped higher in early April, following a surprise OPEC+ production cut of around 1.66 million barrels per day in response to declining prices.

Even though the oil price is on track to regain at least some of Monday’s losses, a rise above last week’s high at $85.94 is needed for the mid-February and March highs at $86.59 to $86.72 to be back in the picture.

Immediate support below Tuesday’s intraday low at $83.99 can be seen along the breached November-to-April downtrend line, which because of inverse polarity now acts as a support line, at $83.05. It sits within the March-to-April $79.91 to $83.45 gap, at least part of which is expected to be filled in the coming days with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $81.90 offering possible support.

11042023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold retracement lower has found support

Gold’s descent from last week’s one-year $2,032 per troy ounce high has found support along the March-to-April uptrend line at $1,990, both on Monday and also earlier this morning, despite equity markets resuming their advances after the Easter break amid risk-on sentiment.

The precious metal is about to revisit its $2,003 to $2,009 resistance area which consists of the late March highs, a rise above which would allow for last week’s high at $2,032 to be revisited. Were it to be exceeded, the March 2022 high and the August 2020 all-time high at $2,070-to-$2,075 would be back in the frame.

Support below Monday’s trough at $1,982 lies at the $1,959 February high.

11042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper recovery stalls along resistance line

The recovery in the price of copper from last week’s $8,666 per ton low on the back of a more positive economic outlook stalled along the March-to-April resistance line at $8,869 on Tuesday morning.

For the next higher 55-day SMA at $8,954 to be reached, a rise and daily chart close above Thursday’s and this morning’s intraday high at $8,874 needs to be seen. While this level caps, Wednesday’s Hammer high on the daily candlestick chart at $8,802 may be revisited.

Further down lies Tuesday’s intraday low at $8,776. Only currently unexpected failure at last week’s $8,666 low would engage the March low at $8,443.

11042023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI, gold and silver prices continue to rise, the latter to levels last seen a year ago

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver ahead of publication of US FOMC minutes and CPI.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023 

WTI nears two-and-a-half-month high

WTI is about to trade in two-and-a-half-month highs after rallying by more than 2% in the previous session on signs of tighter global oil supplies and an industry report that pointed to another decline in US crude inventories at a key storage hub.

WTI is fast approaching last week’s peak at $81.79, above which beckon the January high and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.65 to $82.77 which may act as short-term resistance. Further up sits the December high at $83.30.

An upside bias should be maintained while Tuesday’s low at $79.40 underpins. Incidentally it was made along the breached January-to-April downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity, support line from where Tuesday’s rally began.

Below it minor support can be found at the $79.02 March-to-April gap high point with the gap descending all the way to $75.76.

12042023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold builds on Tuesday’s gains

Gold’s descent from last week’s one-year $2,032 per troy ounce peak found support along the March-to-April uptrend line, now at $1,997, both on Monday and Tuesday, before the price of the precious metal advanced by over a percent to Wednesday’s intraday high to date at $2,021 ahead of the publication of last month’s FOMC minutes and March CPI numbers.

Minor support sits between $2,009 to $2,003, the late March highs, and can also be found around the psychological $2,000 mark with last week’s high at $2,032 remaining in focus. Were it to be bettered, the March 2022 high and the August 2020 all-time high at $2,070-to-$2,075 would be back in the picture.

The medium-term uptrend remains intact while Monday’s low at $1,982 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Below it lies the $1,959 February high.

12042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver trades in one-year highs

The over 25% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce mark is showing no signs of slowing down ahead of Wednesday’s key US inflation data release and looks to be on track for its fifth consecutive week of gains.

The April 2022 peak at $26.22 represents the next upside target, followed by the March 2022 high at $26.95. The advance is being supported by the March-to-April uptrend line at $24.95 and will remain valid while the last reaction low at $24.57, made on Thursday of last week, underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

Together with the $24.63 February peak it offers good support but isn’t expected to be revisited anytime soon as Wednesday’s break out of last week’s congestion range occurred to the upside.

12042023XAGUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil and gold rise as natural gas slides

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and natural gas as Fed remains on track to hike one more time.

bg_oil_pump_366223843.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 April 2023 

Brent crude oil trades in 2 ½ month highs

Brent crude oil’s over 3% advance from Tuesday’s $83.59 low has taken it to a 2 ½ month high around the $87 handle amid tight global supply.

Early April’s surprise OPEC+ production cut of around 1.16 million barrels per day from May until year end, slowing oil shipments from Russia, and halted pipeline flows from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region all led to higher oil prices since the beginning of the month.

The mid-February and March highs at $86.59 to $86.72 have so far been reached with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $88.57 representing the next upside target, followed by the $89.01 January peak.

Support sits at last week’s high at $85.95 and further minor support in the $85.45 to $85.33 region where most of last week’s highs were made.

13042023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold price continues to rise

Gold’s ascent towards its one-year $2,032 per troy ounce early April peak remains on track amid a depreciating US dollar on softer-than-expected US inflation data for the month of March.

Were a rise above the $2,032 level to be seen, the March 2022 peak and the August 2020 all-time high at $2,070-to-$2,075 would be next in line. Support comes in along the March-to-April uptrend line at $2,005 which sits between $2,009 to $2,003, the late March highs.

The medium-term uptrend remains intact while Monday’s low at $1,982 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Below it lies the $1,959 February high.

13042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures resume their descent

US natural gas futures are slipping back towards their $2.105 late February and $2.065 early April lows on forecasts for milder weather and as Malaysia's national oil company Petronas aims to restart a gas pipeline currently under force majeure by the first quarter of 2024.

From a technical perspective US natural gas prices remain on track to reach the psychological $2.000 mark, provided they stay below this week’s high at $2.328 on a daily chart closing basis.

Below this level a resistance line can be spotted at $2.282, along with the late March high at $2.264, both of which may act as minor resistance.

13042023NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold enjoys more gains, while oil stalls and corn prices drop back

Gold has continued to rise, and US oil prices have returned to the 200-day SMA. Meanwhile, corn prices are falling once more.

bg_gold_363727164.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 April 2023 

Gold at one-year high

Gold has enjoyed another surge, taking it this time to its highest level in a year.

Bullish momentum shows no sign of slowing, though the price looks overextended at current levels. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is down at $1907, with a reversal to this level wiping out all the gains made since the beginning of March.

Further upside towards the 2022 high at $2070 will leave the price more overextended, though as yet there is no sign of a reversal developing.

Gold_140423.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI stalls at 200-day MA

The price has faltered at the 200-day SMA, having held on commendably well to the gains made since the OPEC+ production cut two weeks ago.

The price continues to hold above the highs from the end of 2022 and the early months of 2023, bolstering a near-term bullish view. The gap higher since the end of March has yet to see any reversal, and for the moment the bullish view prevails. A move above the 200-day would open the way to the $91.80 highs from November.

Alternately, a more bearish view requires a move back below $80, and a filling of the gap higher from the end of March. This might then suggest a renewed move lower was beginning.

WTI_140423.pngSource: ProRealTime

Corn suffers more losses

The reversal from the 50-day SMA has continued, and now the price is on the cusp of being given fresh bearish impetus by a bearish MACD crossover.

Continued losses will target the March lows around 606, as the downtrend gains renewed momentum after the lower high at the beginning of April.

A reversal above the 50-day SMA might suggest another attempt to break above the April high at 654.

Corn_140423.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and copper rise, while oil prices edge back

While WTI is still held back by the 200-day MA, gold and copper prices have made some headway in morning trading.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 April 2023 

Gold holds trendline support

After falling back on Friday the price has stabilised above $2000, leaving the upward move intact.

The price has found itself supported by US dollar weakness, while on the technical side trendline support since mid-March has helped buyers to prevent any sustained move lower.

The next major hurdle is the area around the 2022 highs, from $2050 to $2065. This provided an area of resistance on Friday, as might have been expected after the sharp move higher since the March low, and for now represents a barrier to further progress.

Gold_170423.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI still stuck at 200-day MA

The price continues to push up against the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but without any sign of it breaking higher yet.

Buyers will continue to take comfort from the fact that the price is holding around the $82 highs of December-February, putting a continued move higher into view.

As a result, the bullish view still holds sway, and will until we see a drop back below $80. This might then suggest that the gap higher from March will be closed, and could open the path to more downside.

WTI_170423.pngSource: ProRealTime

High grade copper pushes higher

After dropping back to the March lows, the price has clawed its way higher, and is holding steady in early trading after being knocked back from the highs on Friday.

The recovery above the 100- and 50-day SMAs has been a positive development, and puts the February high at 42,000 and then the January peak at 43,000 back into view as upside targets.

A move below rising trendline support from the March lows would be needed to suggest that the sellers have reasserted control.

Copper_170423.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent and gold stabilise while sugar remains bid on strong China data

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and sugar as China sees better-than-expected GDP, industrial output and retail sales data.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 April 2023 

Brent recoups some of Monday’s losses on strong China data

Brent crude oil’s slip from last week’s 2 ½ month $87.19 high on mounting recession fears leading to a possible drop in demand has been countered by strong data out of China showing that its economy grew by more than expected in the first quarter, its industrial output gained the most in five months and retail sales grew by the most in two years.

With the post-pandemic recovery looking to be well on track and demand for oil likely to rise, the price of oil recouped some of its recent losses with the front month Brent crude oil futures contract heading back up towards the $85.00 mark.

As long as Monday’s high at $86.23 isn’t bettered, however, further slips in the price of oil may be seen as investors globally are getting increasingly worried about the outlook for growth and interest rates.

The current April lows at $83.59 to $83.46 may thus be revisited with parts of the March-to-April gap down to $79.92 possibly also being filled. Immediate resistance sits at the early April high at $85.94.

18042023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold oscillates around the $2,000 mark

Gold’s reversal lower from its one-year $2,048 per troy ounce mid-April peak on the back of an appreciating US dollar which recovered from its one-year low on recent better-than-expected US data has taken the precious metal back to its $1,982 10 April low which so far holds.

Were it to be slipped through, however, at least a minor top would likely be formed with the February high at $1,959 representing the next downside target ahead of the $1,950 to $1,935 support zone which consists of the late March and early April lows.

Resistance can be spotted at the $2,003 to $2,009 late March highs ahead of the 5 April high at $2,032.

18042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Price of sugar nears its eleven year high

The steep ascent in the price of sugar (no. 11 front month futures), due to production bottlenecks in key producer nations and countries like India throttling their exports, leading to strong global demand not being met, has last week taken it to an eleven year high at $24.29 for 112000 pounds of raw cane sugar.

The minor retracement lower since then to $23.25 on Friday was followed by another up leg early this week which targets the $24.00 July 2012 high, above which sits the September 2016 peak at $24.09 ahead of last week’s $24.29 high point.

The $24.00 to $24.29 key resistance zone may well cap the current advance in the near future in which case a fall through Friday’s low at $23.25 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to a top being formed, just as in 2012 and 2016.

18042023SB-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI and silver are topping out short-term while cocoa trades in 6 ½ year highs

Technical outlook on WTI, silver and cocoa prices with the latter approaching the psychological $3,000 per metric ton mark.

BG_silver_23426516511134.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 

WTI continues to slide

WTI continues to slide as Chinese refineries processed a record amount of crude in March and as Russia’s crude oil exports bounced back above three million barrels a day last week, according to Bloomberg.

Iraq is also hoping to resume oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan after being halted last month, all of which puts downward pressure on the price of crude oil.

Last Tuesday’s low at $79.40 may be reached on a fall through the $80 mark with the breached January-to-March resistance line at $79.22, because of inverse polarity, now a support line, offering potential support. Further down sits the $79.02 March-to-April gap high point with the gap descending all the way down to $75.76.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the early April high at $81.79 caps on a daily chart closing basis. Further up meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.35.

19042023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver price comes off its one-year high

The near 30% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce level in early March has given way to some profit taking with it slipping back below the $25 mark and heading back down towards the $24.63 early February high.

Together with the last reaction low at $24.57 it is likely to offer at least initial support. If slipped through, however, the December high at $24.30 may be reached next.

Immediate resistance can be found at Tuesday’s $25.32 high ahead of last week’s $26.09 one-year high. Further up sits the April 2022 peak at $26.22, followed by the March 2022 high at $26.95.

19042023XAGUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

NY cocoa futures surge to 6 ½ year high

Front month NY cocoa futures continue to surge higher and now trade in 6 ½ year highs whilst fast approaching the $2,992 August 2015 low and psychological $3,000 per metric ton level amid ongoing supply issues in top grower Ivory Coast.

Minor support can be seen at the $2,930 March peak. As long as the March-to-April uptrend line at $2,896 and the last reaction low at Monday’s $2,886 trough hold on a daily chart closing basis, an upside bias remains in place.

The medium-term uptrend will remain valid as long as the late March to April lows at $2,831 underpin on a daily chart closing basis.

19042023CC-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

Brent crude oil and gold slide while copper rallies on rising risk-on sentiment

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and copper amid improving sentiment.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 

Brent crude oil remains under pressure

Brent crude oil’s April descent took it to a near one-month low at $77.36 last week as investors grapple with the prospect of further rate hikes, lingering recession fears and uncertain demand from top importer China.

Brent crude oil’s recovery rally from last Friday petered out at $80.49 and whilst it and the one-month downtrend line at $80.16 cap, renewed downside is expected to be witnessed.

Were the January low and the late April low at $77.65 to $77.36 to be slipped through, the December trough at $75.32 would be eyed. Further down lies the $70.09 March low.

While Friday’s high at $80.49 caps, further downside is expected to be seen. Above it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) $81.25.

02052023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold slips towards the lower end of its sideways trading range

Gold continues to range trade below its one-year $2,048 per troy ounce April peak and does so around the psychological $2,000 mark while being stuck in a sideways trading range between $2,012 and $1,970 since mid-April, the break out of which is likely to determine the ensuing trend.

JPMorgan’s US government-backed takeover of First Republic Bank over the weekend has led to risk-on sentiment which pushed the gold price lower.

A fall and daily chart close below the $1,970 mid-April low would target the February high at $1,959, ahead of the $1,950 to $1,935 support zone, made up of the late March and early April lows.

Immediate resistance above the minor psychological $2,000 mark continues to be seen between the $2,006 to $2,009 mid-to late April highs.

Only a currently unexpected rise and daily chart close above the $2,012 level would engage the 5 April high at $2,032 and probably also the $2,048 peak.

02052023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper bounces off its March and April lows

The price of copper gapped higher on Monday morning, having previously bounced off its March and April $8,443 to $8,428 per ton lows, as risk-on sentiment rises.

Monday’s minor price gap at $8,650 to $8,639 might nonetheless be filled before further upside takes the industrial metal back towards its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,873.

Only a currently unexpected drop through the $8,428 April trough would engage the 200-day SMA at $8,322. Further down sits the January trough at $8,189.

02052023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI drops on recession fears while gold and silver rally on flight to safety

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver ahead of Wednesday’s anticipated Fed 25 basis-point rate hike.

BG_gold_98498465655.jpgSource:Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 May 2023 

WTI drops to five-week low

The slide in the price of crude oil is gaining traction with WTI now trading at levels last seen in late March whilst approaching the December trough at $70.25 and the minor psychological $70 mark ahead of Wednesday’s US Fed rate hike decision.

Failure at the $70 mark would open the way for the March trough at $64.37 to be back in focus.

Good resistance now sits between the January and February lows at $72.50 to $72.64 as well as at the late April low at $73.88. While the accelerated downtrend line at $75.42 isn’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis, further downside pressure is likely to take the price of oil lower still as recessionary fears grow.

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Gold benefits from safe haven inflows

The gold price has finally broken out of its three-week triangle formation and did so to the upside on safe haven flows as the US regional bank index slid by 6% on contagion fears on Tuesday.

The early April high at $2,032 per troy ounce is thus being eyed, a rise above which would push the April peak at $2,048 back to the fore.

Upside pressure should be maintained while the recent lows seen on the daily chart between $1,978 and $1,970 underpin. Minor support above these levels comes in along the breached triangle resistance line – now because of inverse polarity support line – at $2,006 and around the psychological $2,000 mark.

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Silver trades near its one-year highs

The 28% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce mark in early March gave way to some sideways consolidation over the past three weeks with last week’s low at $24.50 offering good support.

While it underpins, another attempt at reaching this years April and current May highs at $25.91 to $26.09 remains at hand. If overcome, the April 2022 high at $26.22 could be reached.

Only a currently unexpected fall through the $24.50 low would make us question our medium-term bullish forecast.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold holds steady and oil drops, while orange juice pullback slows

Gold prices have edged higher and oil prices are down this morning, while the longer-term trend in orange juice prices is holding up despite the recent pullback.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 15 May 2023 

Gold stabilises above trendline support

The price fell back from highs last week, but the short-term uptrend is intact.

Support from the March lows comes into play around $1992, so a move below here would mark a short-term bearish development. This might open the way to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), plus trendline support from the November lows.

A fresh recovery targets $2050 once again.

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WTI down in early trading

Last week witnessed a fresh turn lower below the 50-day SMA, an indication that the sellers remain in control.

This now puts a move back to the $65 level in view, an area of support in March and back in December 2021.

The failed rally of March and April handed the sellers the upper hand, and continued declines below a falling 50-day SMA maintain the bearish outlook.

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Orange juice heads to 100-day MA

The pullback here has returned to the 100-day SMA for the first time since September.

This has taken the price to its lowest level since mid-March, but could yet see the creation of a higher low and a revival of the bullish view.

This might then prompt a move back towards the April highs at 28,000.

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WTI recovers on supply-side disruptions while gold and silver continue to gradually slide

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver ahead of speeches by several US Federal Reserve committee members.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 16 May 2023 

WTI tries to hold onto Monday’s gains

On Monday WTI recovered from its $69.39 one-week low as supply-side disruptions and the resumption of US oil reserve purchases propped up prices.

The large number of wildfires in Canada represent a growing threat of supply disruptions, as does the third seizure in a month of a foreign-flagged tanker in the Persian Gulf by Iran, while the US replenishes its depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries planned for August.

Despite this, WTI has so far not managed to break through its April-to-May downtrend line at $71.92. For a bullish reversal to gain traction, a rise and daily chart close above the next higher $73.82 high, made last week, would need to ensue.

While this hasn’t happened, the risk of further downside pressure manifesting itself on global recession fears and lacklustre growth in top importing country China leading to reduced future demand, remains in play.

A drop through last week’s low at $69.39 could push the March and early May lows at $64.37 to $63.77 back to the fore.

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Gold remains under pressure

The price of gold continues to gradually come off its early May multi-year high and is about to retest its breached April triangle resistance line, now because of inverse polarity a support line at $1,998 per troy ounce.

It has acted as support over the past week but if it were to be slid through, the April triangle support line at $1,985 may be revisited.

With this week’s economic calendar looking sparse, traders will look to guidance from a host of Federal Reserve speakers such as Bostic, Kashkari, Barkin and Cook on Tuesday which may provide some volatility, the most important of which will be on Friday when Fed chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.

Meanwhile resistance between $2,022 to $2,032, Monday’s high and the 5 April peak, is expected to cap any minor advance.

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Silver drops to six-week low

The price of silver has taken a hit amid a rising US dollar and relatively weak China industrial production growth with the precious metal sliding to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.72.

Below it lies the $23.50 zone around which the price of silver oscillated from December to early February with the late January low at $22.76 representing the lowest level of this sideways trading range.

In case of a currently unexpected recovery to above Monday’s $24.21 high being seen, the February high and late April low at $24.50 to $24.63 are expected to offer good resistance.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Brent crude oil, orange juice stabilise while copper advances as US debt ceiling bill gets signed

Outlook on Brent crude oil, orange juice and copper as US House of Representatives approves bill to raise debt ceiling.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 June 2023 

Brent crude oil prices finds interim support

The price of Brent crude oil, having dropped by over 6% over the past two days on possible weaker Chinese demand, a surprise build in US crude inventories and as Russia doesn’t adhere to its OPEC+ agreed output cuts, is stabilising.

Better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI from the private Caixin survey led to buying on Thursday and so far has taken the oil price back towards the $73.37 mid-May low which may act as initial resistance. Above it lies further minor resistance at the 17 May $74.02 low and also at the 22 May $74.47 low.

On Wednesday Brent crude oil stabilised marginally above its $71.40 early May low, along the March-to-May support line at $72.20 on a daily chart closing basis. Earlier this morning it also acted as support.

Only a currently unexpected drop through the $71.51 to $71.40 support zone would lead to the March trough at $70.09 being hit.

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Copper recovery off its six-month low is gaining traction

The price of copper is in the process of breaking through its two-month downtrend line at $8,130 per ton as the US House of Representatives approved a bill to raise the debt ceiling.

It will now be sent to the Senate, which is expected to rubber stamp the bill before President Joe Biden can sign it into law ahead of June 5, when the US would be in default.

If the copper price were to close on the daily chart above Tuesday’s $8,185 high, the last reaction high, it could extend its recent gains to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,373.

This technical view will remain valid as long as the last reaction low, that is Wednesday’s low at $8,038, underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

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Orange juice price flirts with uptrend line

Front month orange juice futures have come off last week’s all-time record high at $2.8721 and are likely to retest their one-month uptrend line at $2.7030 as Brazil may increase its supply.

If slid through, the 8 May high at $2.5348 would be eyed with further potential support sitting at last week’s $2.6663 to $2.6430 price gap. Resistance remains to be seen around the $2.8038 April high.

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WTI recoups recent losses while gold, silver on track for first weekly advance

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver as US debt ceiling bill is signed off and US dollar plummets.

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 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023 

WTI recoups some of this week’s losses ahead of OPEC+ meeting

WTI, which dropped by over 7% this week amid US debt ceiling negotiations and as data out of China showed a mixed picture, is regaining some of its lost ground as a US default has been averted and as OPEC+ meets this weekend.

Despite WTI rallying back to last Thursday’s low at $71.02, it is expected to end the week in negative territory.

Potential upside targets for next week can be seen along the April-to-June downtrend line at $72.68 and at the mid-May high at $73.30.

Minor support comes in at Wednesday’s $69.73 high and more significant support at the late May $67.12 low.

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Gold recovery off six-month uptrend line has further to run

The price of gold is on track for its first weekly positive close in a month and is trying to reach the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and April support line, now because of inverse polarity resistance line, at $1,991 to $1,994 per troy ounce.

As risk-on sentiment is back in play due to the US debt ceiling bill having been passed by both US Houses, the gold price may soon lose upside momentum. If so, the mid-April low at $1,970 is likely to be revisited. Below it lies the mid-May low at $1,952.

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Silver set for first weekly advance in a month

The silver price is set to see its first weekly advance, following three consecutive weeks of lower prices, in bouncing off its two-month low at $22.68 per troy ounce.

The Caixin manufacturing index out on Thursday pointed to expansion in the Chinese manufacturing sector, opposite to official figures released on Wednesday, and helped the price of silver to rise.

The 19 May high at $24.01 is now within reach, a rise above which would eye the 55-day SMA at $24.30. Further up the late April low can be spotted at $24.50.

Minor support can be found at the 18 May trough at $23.33.

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Gold prices fall back and oil prices rally, while live cattle prices sit at a record high

Gold has dropped back at the start of the week, while oil prices have been given a lift by a fresh OPEC production cut. Meanwhile, live cattle prices have made further headway.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 05 June 2023 

Gold renews Friday’s declines

While stocks rallied on Friday following the jobs report, gold prices went sharply into reverse. This has continued this morning, with the price nearing the 100-day SMA once again. Last week saw the price hold above the 100-day SMA and above the $1930 support zone. A move below $1930 would mark an interesting development, putting the price below the 100-day SMA for the first time since November. This might then open the way to the 200-day SMA, and then down towards $1800. A revival needs to clear short-term resistance around $1985, and then on above the 50-day SMA ($1991), to suggest that the uptrend has been revived.

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WTI rallies following production cut

Oil prices rallied on Thursday and Friday in expectation of an OPEC production cut. The organisation duly delivered, and prices gapped higher over the weekend. Further gains target the late May high around $74.50, and then on to the 50- and 100-day SMAs. The last production cut prompted a rally to the 200-day SMA before it faltered. Buyers will be hoping that the price can sustain the forward momentum and move on to clear the 200-day SMA this time. Conversely, sellers will be watching for a turn lower, ideally below the 100-day SMA, that will leave the bearish view intact.

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Live Cattle at record highs

Prices here rallied on Friday to a new record high. A remarkable rally has seen the price rise by almost a third over the last year. Clearly, bullish momentum is still very strong, but the price now looks overextended from the 50-day SMA. Some short-term consolidation may well occur, but it is notable that weakness in March and May both stabilised above the 100-day SMA. Trendline support from the March lows will need to be breached if sellers are to gain traction in the short-term.

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WTI and gold trade in low volatility while wheat slips back

Outlook on WTI, gold and Chicago wheat a day after an Ukranian dam has been blown up.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 June 2023 

WTI range trades following OPEC+ meeting

WTI, which last week rallied by over 8% as Saudi Arabia announced voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day in July over the weekend, is seen slipping once more on demand concerns. If Wednesday’s low at $70.23 were to give way, the mid-May low at $69.39 would be eyed. More significant support rests at the late May $67.12 low. The mid-May high at $73.30 and April-to-June downtrend line at $73.34 are expected to cap any potential short-term rally this week.

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Gold trades in low volatility with a bearish bias

On Monday the gold price bounced off its November-to-May uptrend line, now at $1,942 per troy ounce, as the US dollar rally stalled. With the greenback appreciating once more, the precious metal is slipping back towards its seven-month uptrend line at $1,942, below which lie Monday’s trough at $1,939 and last week’s low at $1,933. While the $1,939 to $1,933 support zone holds, a recovery towards last week’s high at $1,983 may ensue but if it were to give way, the minor psychological $1,900 mark could be back in the frame. For the bulls to be back in control, the two-month downtrend line at $1,970 would need to be overcome, however.

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Chicago Wheat spike turned out to be short-lived

On Tuesday the price of wheat initially rallied for a fifth consecutive day on supply worries as the southern Ukrainian Kakhovka dam had been blown up which led to widespread flooding. A day later, Chicago wheat is practically trading at similar levels to before the catastrophe took place with it now looking vulnerable to the downside with the mid-May low and late May high at $6.31 to $6.29 per 5,000 bushels being eyed. Further down the major psychological $6.00 region should offer strong support, if reached at all that is. For bullish momentum to gain traction, not only Tuesday’s high at $6.56 but also the May peak at $6.71 would need to be exceeded.

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Brent crude oil, silver and copper capped by resistance in low volatile trading

Outlook on Brent crude oil, silver and copper as investors mull over economic and monetary backdrop.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 June 2023 

Brent crude oil capped by downtrend line

Brent crude oil continues to trade in low volatility whilst remaining capped by its April-to-June downtrend line at $77.48 per barrel as traders mull over the outlook for energy demand amid top importer China’s lacklustre growth. While the next higher $77.51 to $78.52 resistance area, the early May to early June highs, caps, a return towards the middle of the recent sideways trading range looks probable. Minor support below Wednesday’s low at $75.47 sits at Tuesday’s $74.68 trough, a fall through which would push the $73.37 mid-May low back to the fore.

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Silver continues to range trade in low volatility

The silver price remains below its two-month downtrend line at $23.96, having yesterday revisited but failed to overcome last week’s high at $24.02 on a daily chart closing basis as the US dollar briefly depreciated. While the $24.02 to $24.05 resistance zone caps, a retest of Monday’s low at $23.25 may still ensue, a fall through which would target the March-to-June uptrend line at $23.14. If it were to be slipped through, the May low at $22.68 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.23 would be back in sight. A rise and daily chart close above $24.05 would put the late April low at $24.50 on the map.

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Copper price remains capped by technical resistance

For the past four days, the price of copper has been capped by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,381 per ton as investors grapple with the global economic outlook in an environment of ongoing monetary tightening. While no rise and daily chart close above Wednesday’s high at $8,417 is made on a daily chart closing basis, a slip back towards Monday’s low at $8,169 may unfold. Below it lies more significant support at the $8,089 mid-May low.

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Gold price edges up, while oil and cotton prices fall

Gold is still struggling to make headway, while oil and cotton have pushed lower in early trading.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 June 2023 

Gold still building a base

While the price continues to hold above $1940 and the 100-day SMA, it has not shown the strength needed to break higher. Recent gains have faltered around $1980, so a move above this level and above the 50-day SMA would be needed to provide further bullish emphasis. Beyond this lies the $2060 highs from early May. Bears will need to see a drop back below $1940 to provide an indication that a fresh move to the downside is underway.

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WTI on the back foot again

A run of weaker Chinese data and a downgrade to price forecasts has hit oil prices, which have begun the week on a downbeat note. Having given back all the post-OPEC bounce (one that was less impressive and even shorter-lived than the one before), the price now looks to target the late May low around $67.50, and then down towards $64. The bearish move is firmly in place, and it would need a move back above $74 to suggest that the buyers have reasserted control.

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Cotton struggles to hold 50-day MA

Cotton prices have seen their rebound from the late May low come to a halt. The price has now slipped back below the 100-day SMA, and now it is battling to hold the 50-day SMA. Further declines test trendline support from October, a line that has acted as support several times since late March. A recovery above $83.50 would suggest another attempt to test trendline resistance from the November high.

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Brent crude oil and silver stabilise while copper attacks resistance

Outlook on Brent crude oil, silver and copper as investors mull over economic and monetary backdrop.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 June 2023 

Brent crude oil drops towards May lows

The price of Brent crude oil fell by over 7.5% from its 5 June high over potential US recession concerns, lacklustre Chinese demand and rising Russian supply which outweighs Saudi Arabia’s planned output cuts. The March-to-June support line at $71.78 has been retested but has so far held with even a minor recovery rally being seen on Tuesday. Below Monday’s $71.58 low lie the early and late May lows at $71.51 to $71.40, a fall through which would target the March low at $70.09. Resistance can now be found between the mid-May low and last Thursday’s low at $73.37 to $73.56.

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Silver range trades in low volatility

The silver price remains below its two-month downtrend line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $24.40 to $24.42 ahead of today’s key US inflation data release. These levels lie marginally below the $24.50 to $24.52 resistance area which consists of the late April low and current June high. Minor support can be spotted at the early June high at $24.02 and also at Monday’s $23.88 low.

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Copper drives into technical resistance

For the past week or so, the price of copper has been capped by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,385 per ton as investors grapple with the global economic outlook in an environment of ongoing monetary tightening. On Tuesday the 200-day SMA is being retested, though, above which last week’s high can be seen at $8,450. If exceeded, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,557 could be back in the picture. While last Thursday’s low at $8,247 underpins, further upside remains in store.

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WTI, gold bounce off support while natural gas continues to rise

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas ahead of Wednesday’s Fed’s rate decision.

bg_drill_tubes_480292.JPGSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 14 June 2023 

WTI bounces off support ahead of FOMC meeting

WTI, which fell by over 9% from last week’s high, found support marginally above its late May $67.12 low on hopes for stronger demand from top importer China after its central bank lowered a short-term lending rate. Lower-than-expected US headline inflation also helped prop up the oil price as it supported bets for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes. A rise above Tuesday’s $69.95 high could lead to the April-to-June downtrend line at $72.34 being reached. Only a currently unexpected fall and slip through the $67.54 to $67.12 key support zone would void the short-term bullish outlook and put the May trough at $63.77 on the map.

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Gold continues to range trade in low volatility with a bearish bias

On Tuesday the gold price revisited last week’s high at $1,973 per troy ounce before selling off again towards the lower end of its sideways trading range as US inflation came in softer than expected. The precious metal is currently trying to remain above its May-to-June support line at $1,940. As long as it stays above it and last week’s low at $1,939, further range trading is on the cards. If, however, $1,939 were to be slipped through, the May low at $1,933 would be in focus, together with the psychological $1,900 mark. Only a rise above $1,973 would push the early June high at $1,983 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,988 to the fore.

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Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are heading back up again on concerns Europe will need to ship more gas to replenish its stocks. The front month natural gas futures price is approaching last week’s high at $2.415, a rise above which could lead to the April peak at $2.572 being reached over the coming weeks. Short-term upside pressure is expected to be maintained while Monday’s low at $2.247 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

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WTI stalls, gold slips on stronger greenback while wheat prices surge

Outlook on WTI, gold and wheat ahead Jerome Powell’s US senate banking committee testimony.

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 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 June 2023 

WTI hugs April-to-June downtrend line

WTI’s recovery from its current June low at $67.54 low has been struggling around the April-to-June downtrend line at $71.06 for the past four days as traders re-assess the global economy’s growth prospects and future oil demand. Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s speech to the US banking committee today and Thursday might give investors further clues as to future US monetary policy. For WTI to resume its ascent, Tuesday’s high at $72.36 will need to be overcome in which case the 10 May high and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $73.82 to $73.77 will be in focus. Further up sits key resistance at the $73.89 to $74.70 May and June peaks. Upside pressure should be maintained while Tuesday’s low at $69.78 underpins. Were it to give way, the mid-May low at $69.39 would be back in the picture.

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Gold slips on stronger US dollar

Gold is once again being pushed down by a recovering US dollar and approaches last week’s $1,925 per troy-ounce three-month low. If slipped through, the late January low at $1,901 would be targeted. Below it lie the 9 February high and 15 March low at $1,891 to $1,886. Downside pressure should be maintained while the price of the precious metal stays below its May-to-June downtrend line at $1,957. Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal and rise above last Friday’s high at $1,968 would void the now short-term bearish technical view.

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Chicago Wheat spikes to major resistance

Chicago Wheat’s rally to a two-month high occurred in line with corn and soybean futures surging on worries about Midwestern dryness. All three commodities saw a flurry of buying last week as traders positioned themselves ahead of the three-day Juneteenth weekend. Since then, the wheat price continues to rally but at a slower pace as it hits key resistance between $7.18 to $7.30. It consists of the December and January lows and March and April highs and is likely to thwart the recent up surge. If not, the 200-day single moving average (SMA) at $7.53 would be next in line. Potential slips may find support around the minor psychological $7.00 mark.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold and oil under pressure, while sugar prices look to rebound

Gold and oil have struggled to hold their initial gains this morning, while sugar prices are up after rebounding from a three-month low on Friday.

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 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 03 July 2023 

Gold gives up morning gains

The price continues to fall, though it rebounded from a three-month low on Friday. An initial recovery targets trendline resistance around $1935, while a fresh decline back below $1900 would open the path to the 200-day SMA (currently $1861). The bearish case continues to hold sway while the price remains below $1930, while a recovery might result in an eventual test of the 50-day SMA. For now, the price is still in a longer-term uptrend from the lows of October last year, and it will need a move back below $1850 to really dent that view.

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Brent struggles higher

The price remains relatively unchanged this morning, after the rally last week that took the price back to the declining 50-day SMA. This has capped gains since mid-May, while on the downside losses have been halted around $71.60. This marks the continuation of a zone of support from mid-March. Since then the price has been stuck between these two areas, unable to move higher or lower over the medium term. A failure to break the 50-day SMA could see the price head lower once again. A break below $70 opens the way to $67.50, and then on to $64.75.

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Sugar stabilises after steep falls

The price came plummeting back to earth last week, after a huge rally in the first five months of the year. The substantial reversal took the price back to 2200, but it has rallied in early trading this morning. The potential for a higher low is now building, and a move above the 100-day SMA might help to reinforce a short-term bullish move. This might then target 2450 and then on to 2600. A fresh drop below 2200 brings the 200-day SMA into view.

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WTI slips on demand woes and orange juice on supply hopes while silver recovers

Outlook on WTI, silver and orange juice as US factory activity shrinks and OPEC+ cuts its output further still.

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 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 

WTI slips back as investors mull outlook

WTI’s recent advance ran out of steam close to its May-to-July downtrend line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $71.88 to $71.96 despite Saudi Arabia announcing that it would prolong its 1 million barrel per day (bpd) voluntary output cut until the end of August. Worries about slowing US factory activity trumped additional Russian oil export reductions by 500,000 bpd next month which brings the total amount of output cuts by OPEC+ members to 5.16 million bpd as the group of major oil producers tries to shore up prices.

Little trading volume is expected to go through the oil markets on Tuesday as the US is celebrating its 4 July holiday. A slip through Monday’s low at $69.77 could lead to the mid-June low at $68.15 being revisited. Immediate resistance sits at Thursday’s high at $70.65, followed by Friday’s high at $71.10 and then Monday’s peak at $71.82.

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Silver price back above the 200-day simple moving average

The price of silver continues to oscillate around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.62, as it has done over the past week, inversely mimicking US dollar moves. Last week’s high at $23.10 is currently in sight, a rise above which would engage the early to mid-June lows at $23.22 to $23.25. Further up lies the May-to-June downtrend line at $23.48. Slips should find support along the 200-day SMA at $22.62.

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Orange juice falls through uptrend line

Front month orange juice futures gapped lower and now trade below their January-to-June uptrend line at $2.5455 as supply of oranges seems to be picking up again. The early June low at $2.4909 is now within reach, a fall through which would have medium-term negative implications and target the May trough at $2.3807. Resistance can be spotted at this week’s $2.5232 to $2.5388 gap on the daily chart and along the breached 2023 uptrend line at $2.5455. The medium-term downtrend remains in play while last week’s high at $2.6572 isn’t overcome. Below it, the June resistance line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) can be spotted at $2.6070 to $2.6253.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil and natural gas prices rise while wheat prices drop like a stone

Outlook on Brent crude oil, Chicago wheat and natural gas amid weakening manufacturing activity in major economies.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 

Brent crude oil prices continue to rise

Brent crude oil is still grappling with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $75.97 per barrel for the third day in a row as Saudi Arabia earlier this week announced that its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day would last a month longer, until the end of August. Weakening manufacturing activity in major economies is putting pressure on the oil price, though, as did this morning’s Caixin China services PMI which fell to a five-month low.

Only a rise above Monday’s $76.56 high could lead to the late June high and the May-to-July resistance line at $77.20 to $77.24 being retested. If overcome, the May and June highs at $78.17 to $78.52 may be reached as well. Minor support can be found around the late June high at $75.07. The short-term uptrend will remain in play while last week’s low at $72.28 underpins.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Chicago Wheat prices fall off a cliff

Chicago Wheat’s rally to a four-month high at $7.70 in June on worries about Midwestern dryness and political instability in Russia has been followed by just as steep a decline. The reason for this slide is improving weather in the US. The wheat price is now trading back below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $6.53 and nears the $6.34 mid-June low, a fall through which looks imminent.

Further downside targets are the $6.31 late May high, the $6.20 early June low and the psychological $6.00 region. Resistance above the $6.56 early June high can be spotted at the $6.71 May peak.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices consolidate around the $2.75 mark

Natural gas price rises are running out of steam. The recent decline from the $2.930 MMBtu near four-month late June high has so far taken it to last week’s low at $2.617 as Norway hopes to soon ramp up production. Since last week natural gas has been trading in a low volatility sideways trading range above its one-month tentative uptrend line at $2.686. Immediate resistance sits between the May and last Friday’s highs at $2.786 to $2.824 and support below the support line at Tuesday’s $2.661 low. Below it lies last week’s low at $2.617.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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WTI and silver rise but gold slips post hawkish Fed minutes and appreciating dollar

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver as Fed minutes point to further US rate hikes.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 06 July 2023 

WTI nears late June peak at $72.70

WTI is breaking through its May-to-July downtrend line and has also risen above its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $71.68, helped by Saudi Arabia’s extension of its voluntary one million barrel per day (bpd) output cut until the end of August. Together with additional Russian oil export reductions by 500,000 bpd next month it brings the total amount of output cuts by OPEC+ members to 5.16 million bpd as the group of major oil producers tries to prop up prices. The late June high at $72.70 is back in the frame, a rise above which should engage the early May and June highs at $73.82 to $73.89. Minor support sits at the 30 June high at $71.10 and at Wednesday’s $70.44 low.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Gold slips post hawkish Fed minutes

The gold price is once again slipping on the back of hawkish Fed minutes and an appreciating US dollar. The precious metal short-term topped out at Wednesday’s $1,935 per troy ounce high and is seen slipping back towards the 23 June low at $1,911. If fallen through, the June trough at $1,894 may be revisited. Minor resistance for this week can be spotted between the 3 July high and the May-to-July resistance line at $1,931.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Silver nears May-to-July downtrend line

Silver’s recent advance is taking it ever closer to the May-to-July downtrend line at $23.35 per troy ounce, a rise above which would target the mid-June low at $23.60. Above which the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) can be spotted at $23.90. The current upside bias should remain in play while Wednesday’s low and the 55-day simple moving average at $22.77 to $22.66 hold on a daily chart closing basis.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil hold steady but natural gas edges lower

Gold and oil have both managed to make some headway this morning, but natural gas prices have fallen back.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 07 July 2023 

Gold stabilises in early trading

The price continued to decline on Thursday after Wednesday’s retreat from trendline resistance. A daily close below $1900 opens the way to the 200-day SMA as an initial target, while below this the March lows at $1807 come into view. Continued price action below $1930 maintains the bearish view. A move above $1940 would be needed to suggest that a short-term low is in place.

Gold_070723.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent holds on to gains

The price moved to a two-week high on Thursday, having recovered from a brief drop below the 50-day SMA. The overall sideways trading seen since late May remains in place, so a move above $78.50 would be needed to open the way to a breakout to the upside. A reversal below $78 leaves the current trading range intact.

Brent_070723.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural Gas falls back towards trendline support

After reaching a high a week ago the price has fallen back, but the short-term bounce from the May lows is still in place. Additional declines towards 2550 will test trendline support, while a move below 2470 would mark a resumption of the downward move. Having created a higher high at 2930 last week, the short-term bullish view would be maintained with a recovery and a move above this recent high.

Gas_070723.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI, gold and natural gas remain bid ahead of U.S. inflation publication

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI for June.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 

WTI trades in 2 ½ month highs

WTI’s steady advance on the back of tighter supply after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced additional production cuts for August has taken it to a 2 ½ month high, close to the $75 mark. Above it beckons the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.13. Minor support below the $74.70 May peak can be seen between the mid-May and early June highs at $73.82 to $73.89. Further minor support sits at the late June high at $72.70.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Gold gradually rises ahead of key U.S. inflation reading

The gold price has been slowly rising from its $1,903 per troy ounce early July low and has so far reached a 2-week high at $1,941 ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print for June. Resistance can be found between the $1,970 mid-April low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,962. Support sits at the mid-June low at $1,925 and at the 23 June low at $1,911.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas prices rise on two consecutive days

Natural gas price rises seem to be running out of steam around Tuesday’s high at $2.73 MMBtu, marginally below the $2.7836 May peak and the early July high at $2.789. While this resistance area caps, the decline seen from the June peak at $2.930 remains intact. A fall through the late June low at $2.617 would put last week’s low at $2.534 back on the cards.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

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    • KOSPI Composite Day Chart Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis by Trading Lounge Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Gray Wave 2 Position: Orange Wave 3 Next Higher Degrees Direction: Gray Wave 3 Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 2551.59 The KOSPI Composite day chart analysis employs Elliott Wave Theory to provide a detailed examination of market movements. The primary function of the current movement is a counter trend, indicating a move against the primary trend. Mode and Structure: The current mode is corrective, indicating a retracement or consolidation. The structure analyzed is Gray Wave 2, a corrective wave within the larger Elliott Wave framework. Current Position: The market is currently within Orange Wave 3, the third wave of a higher-degree sequence in the orange wave category. According to Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 3 often shows strong, impulsive characteristics. Next Higher Degrees: The direction for the next higher degrees is towards Gray Wave 3. After completing the corrective phase of Gray Wave 2, the market is expected to transition into Gray Wave 3, which is anticipated to be an impulsive wave, resuming the primary trend direction. Details: Following Gray Wave 1, the market is now in the corrective phase of Gray Wave 2 of 3. This phase is crucial as it sets up the market for the next significant move, Gray Wave 3 of 3. Gray Wave 2 is a preparatory phase leading to the next impulsive phase. Wave Cancel Invalid Level: The critical wave cancel invalid level is set at 2551.59. If the market falls below this threshold, the current wave analysis would be invalidated, requiring a reevaluation of the wave count. Summary: The KOSPI Composite day chart indicates that the market is in a corrective phase, identified as Gray Wave 2 within Orange Wave 3. The next expected move is a transition into Gray Wave 3, which is anticipated to resume the primary trend. The wave cancel invalid level is set at 2551.59, serving as a key point for validating or invalidating the current wave structure.   KOSPI Composite Weekly Chart Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis by Trading Lounge Function: Trend Mode: Impulsive Structure: Orange Wave 3 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Next Lower Degrees Direction: Orange Wave 4 Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 2551.59 The KOSPI Composite weekly chart analysis utilizes Elliott Wave Theory to understand market behavior. The function of the current movement is identified as a trend, indicating alignment with the primary direction of the established trend. Mode and Structure: The current mode is impulsive, suggesting strong, directional market moves. The structure under analysis is Orange Wave 3, a significant and typically powerful wave within the broader Elliott Wave sequence. Current Position: The market is currently within Navy Blue Wave 3, a major phase in the market cycle characterized by substantial moves and increased trading activity. Next Lower Degrees: The direction for the next lower degrees is towards Orange Wave 4. After completing the impulsive phase of Orange Wave 3, the market is expected to enter a corrective phase, identified as Orange Wave 4, which will likely retrace some gains made during Orange Wave 3. Details: Orange Wave 2 appears to be completed, setting the stage for the current phase, Orange Wave 3 of 3. This phase is crucial as it represents a strong, impulsive move within the broader trend, often marked by significant price movements and increased volatility. Wave Cancel Invalid Level: The critical wave cancel invalid level is set at 2551.59. If the market falls below this threshold, the current wave analysis would be invalidated, necessitating a reevaluation of the wave count. Summary: The KOSPI Composite weekly chart analysis indicates that the market is in an impulsive phase, identified as Orange Wave 3 within Navy Blue Wave 3. The next expected move is a transition into Orange Wave 4, which will be a corrective phase. The wave cancel invalid level is set at 2551.59, serving as a key point for validating or invalidating the current wave structure.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart Euro/ U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) Day Chart EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Orange Wave 2 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Next Higher Degrees Direction: Orange Wave 3 Details: Orange wave 1 appears completed, and orange wave 2 is currently in play. Wave cancel invalid level: 1.06657. The EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis on the day chart provides insights into market behavior using Elliott Wave Theory. The primary function of the current market movement is identified as a counter trend, indicating that the market is moving against the primary trend direction. The mode of this movement is corrective, suggesting the market is experiencing a retracement or consolidation phase rather than a strong directional trend. The specific structure under analysis is orange wave 2, a corrective wave within the broader Elliott Wave framework. The current position of the market is within navy blue wave 3. This analysis focuses on the third wave of a higher-degree sequence within the navy blue wave category. Wave 3 in Elliott Wave Theory is typically significant, often exhibiting strong and impulsive characteristics. For the next higher degrees, the direction is towards orange wave 3. Following the completion of the current corrective phase of orange wave 2, the market is expected to transition into orange wave 3. Orange wave 3 is anticipated to be an impulsive wave, resuming the primary trend direction. The analysis notes that orange wave 1 appears completed. Orange wave 1 represents the initial impulsive move in the sequence. Currently, the market is in the corrective phase of orange wave 2. This phase is critical for setting up the subsequent major move, which will be orange wave 3. An essential aspect of this analysis is the wave cancellation invalid level, identified as 1.06657. This level serves as a threshold; if the market moves below this point, the current wave analysis would be invalidated, necessitating a reevaluation of the wave count. In summary, the EURUSD day chart analysis indicates the market is in a corrective phase, identified as orange wave 2 within navy blue wave 3. The next anticipated move is a transition into orange wave 3, expected to resume the primary trend. The wave cancel invalid level is set at 1.06657, serving as a critical point for validating or invalidating the current wave structure.   EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4-Hour Chart Euro/ U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) 4-Hour Chart EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Orange Wave 2 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Next Higher Degrees Direction: Orange Wave 3 Details: Orange wave 1 appears completed, and orange wave 2 is currently in play. Wave cancel invalid level: 1.06657. The EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis on the 4-hour chart provides insights into the market using Elliott Wave Theory. The primary function identified is counter trend, indicating that the market is currently moving against the primary trend. The mode of this movement is corrective, suggesting the market is undergoing a retracement or consolidation phase rather than a strong directional move. The specific structure in focus is orange wave 2, a corrective wave within the Elliott Wave framework. The market position is identified as navy blue wave 3. This means the analysis is examining the third wave of a higher-degree sequence within the navy blue wave category. Wave 3 is typically significant in Elliott Wave Theory, often associated with strong and impulsive movements. The direction for the next higher degrees is orange wave 3. Once the current corrective phase of orange wave 2 is complete, the market is expected to transition into orange wave 3. Orange wave 3 is anticipated to be an impulsive wave, resuming the primary trend direction. The analysis details that orange wave 1 appears completed. Orange wave 1 represents the initial impulsive move in the sequence. Now, the market is in the corrective phase of orange wave 2. This phase is essential for setting up the next major move, which will be orange wave 3. A critical aspect of this analysis is the wave cancellation invalid level, identified as 1.06657. This level acts as a threshold; if the market moves below this point, the current wave analysis would be invalidated, suggesting a reevaluation of the wave count is necessary. In summary, the EURUSD 4-hour chart analysis indicates that the market is in a corrective phase, identified as orange wave 2 within navy blue wave 3. The next anticipated move is a transition into orange wave 3, which is expected to resume the primary trend. The wave cancel invalid level is set at 1.06657, serving as a crucial point for validating or invalidating the current wave structure.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • COCHLEAR LIMITED - COH Elliott Wave Technical Analysis (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with COCHLEAR LIMITED - COH. We observe that COH has concluded wave ((4)) - navy as a Triangle, and wave ((5)) - navy is poised to advance. ASX: COCHLEAR LIMITED - COH Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Primary degree, navy) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((5)) - navy Details: Wave ((4)) - navy seems to have ended at the low of 318.39 as a Triangle, and wave ((5)) - navy is unfolding to move higher, targeting around 386.63 - 400.00 or beyond. The invalidation point is 318.39.   ASX: COCHLEAR LIMITED - COH Elliott Wave Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Primary degree, navy) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((5)) - navy Details: Wave ((4)) - navy has just concluded at the low of 318.39 as a Triangle, and wave ((5)) - navy is likely to push higher, provided the price remains above 318.39. The target is 400.00 or beyond. The invalidation point is 318.39.   Conclusion Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: COCHLEAR LIMITED - COH aim to provide readers with insights into current market trends and strategies to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional market trend analysis. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
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