Jump to content

News and Trade Ideas (Commodities)


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

WTI rallies on tightening supply while gold and natural gas prices slide

Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas as bank concerns fade.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 March 2023 

Yesterday’s strong rally in WTI losing upside momentum

The over 5% rally in the price of WTI, on the back of a legal dispute which blocked around 4 000 000 barrels a day of oil exports out of Turkey and tightened supply, is taking a breather around the January and February lows at $72.50 to $72.64.

Slips should find support around Thursday’s $71.68 high and at the December $70.25 low whereas resistance sits at the 22 February low at $73.85 and along the November-to-March continuation triangle support line, now resistance line, at $74.48.

28032023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold slips as market sentiment improves

Gold’s slip from late last week’s $2,003 per troy ounce high, made marginally below its one-year high at $2,009, is still pointing towards last week’s low at $1,935 as sentiment improves and bank concerns fade with the Deutsche Bank share price regaining the majority of Friday’s steep over 8% losses.

Better-than-expected German IFO business climate data for March also helped risk-on sentiment which led to flows out of gold and into equities taking place. The business climate indicator for Germany increased to 93.3 in March, its highest level since February 2022, compared to 91.1 in February.

Were last Wednesday’s low at $1,935 to be slipped through, the 13 March high at $1,914 would be next in line. The all-time March 2022 high at $2,070 lies above the key $2,003 to $2,009 resistance zone.

28032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures continue their descent

US natural gas futures are tumbling further towards their $2.105 late February low on forecasts for milder weather and as the EIA recently forecast 2.4% less US natural gas consumption in 2023 compared to 2022.

US natural gas prices dropped by around 75% from their $9.977 August 2022 peak and remain on track to reach the February low at $2.105, below which lies the psychological $2.000 mark.

Resistance comes in along the March downtrend line at $2.290 and at Friday’s $2,363 high. Further resistance sits between the mid-March lows at $2.455 to $2.457.

28032023NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Brent crude oil and NY cocoa rally on tightening supply while gold remains subdued

Outlook on Brent, gold and cocoa as sentiment gradually improves.

BG_cocoa_beans_234234234.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 March 2023

Brent crude oil recovery likely has further to go

The price of Brent crude oil has risen by over 5% this week amid a dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from Turkey and as API data showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined by 6.1 million barrels last week, compared to an expected 180,000 barrel rise.

The Brent crude oil chart remains bullish on the outlook for top crude importer China which, according to a forecast by the China National Petroleum Corp, is expected to raise its oil imports by 6.2% in 2023 to 540 million tonnes.

The February low at $79.04 is now within reach, together with the minor psychological $80 mark. The area between the two levels may well act as short-term resistance, though. Further up meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.29.

Minor support below Thursday’s $77.14 high comes in around the $75.32 December low and further down at Monday’s $73.71 high.

29032023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold gives back some of its recent gains as market sentiment improves

Gold’s slip from late last week’s $2,003 per troy ounce high, made slightly below its one-year high at $2,009, is still pointing towards last week’s low at $1,935 as sentiment gingerly improves.

German GfK consumer confidence came in as expected at -29.5 for April versus a downwardly revised -30.6.

Were Monday’s trough at $1,945 to give way, Wednesday's low at $1,935 would be eyed, a fall through which would target the 3 March high at $1,914.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the precious metal price stays below Monday’s high at $1,978. Above this level sits the key $2,003 to $2,009 resistance zone and much further up the all-time March 2022 high at $2,070.

29032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

NY cocoa futures trade in three-year highs

NY cocoa futures rose to levels last traded in February 2020, hit by tight supplies in top grower Ivory Coast, and have so far come close to the $2,900 per metric ton level, above which sits the February 2020 peak at $2,933.

The price of cocoa has risen by over 30% from its October 2022 low but short-term is starting to lose upside momentum, having nearly seen eight consecutive higher daily closes since mid-March.

The cocoa price may thus soon retrace back to the $2,855 early March high which should act as support. Further support can be spotted at the $2,810 late February high.

29032023CC-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

WTI, gold and NY cotton stall ahead of final US Q4 GDP

Outlook on WTI, gold and cotton as sentiment continues to improve as banking woes fade.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023 

WTI is losing upside momentum at technical resistance

The over 15% rally in the price of WTI from its $64.37 per barrel March low on the back of increased demand expectations from top importer China and a legal dispute which blocked around 4000,000 barrels a day of oil exports from Turkey, is stalling, having been rejected by the continuation triangle support, now resistance, line at $74.42 on Wednesday.

A slip back to the January and February lows at $72.64 to $72.50 thus looks imminent with a slide to the 23 March high at $71.69 looking possible. Further minor support sits at the December trough at $70.25.

Were Wednesday’s high at $74.40 to be exceeded, however, the mid-February low at $75.33 would be eyed, followed by the 3 March low at $75.92 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76.24.

30032023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold finds its equilibrium around the $1,970 per troy ounce mark

Gold’s retracement from late last week’s $2,003 per troy ounce high, made slightly below its one-year high at $2,009, has led to it slipping to this week’s low at $1,945 as bank fears fade.

Were Monday’s low at $1,945 to give way, last week’s low at $1,935 would be in focus, a drop through which would target the 3 March high at $1,914.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the gold price stays below Monday’s high at $1,978. Above this level sits the key $2,003 to $2,009 resistance zone and much further up the all-time March 2022 high at $2,070.

30032023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

NY cotton price surge losing upside momentum

The price of NY front month cotton futures, which has risen by over 9% from last week’s $76.04 per 50,000 pound low amid weather related tightening supply, is losing upside momentum.

Even though it has broken through its May 2022 to March 2023 downtrend line, it is losing upside momentum around the 55-day SMA at $83,24 which acts as resistance.

The advance has stalled as the cotton market this week is waiting for export sales reports on what planting acres might be, which are to be published on Thursday and Friday. A rise and daily chart close above Wednesday’s $83.67 high would engage the $86.26 early March high.

Support can be spotted between the January and mid-February lows at $80.83 to $80.42 as well as along the breached downtrend line, which because of inverse polarity has become a support line, at $80.18.

30032023CT-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Gold and coffee prices steady, while oil prices edge lower

Gold and coffee have managed to hold on to most of their recent gains, while oil is down slightly after a strong run higher from the March lows.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023 

Gold clings on near recent highs

The price continues to see plenty of volatility, but remains near recent highs.

Consolidation has been the pattern over the past two weeks, with no desire yet to move above $2000, but with buyers remaining in control and preventing any significant downside for the time being.

Overall it looks like this will resolve into a fresh move higher towards $2050, and it would need a move back below $1900 to put a more serious dent in the bullish view.

Gold_310323.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI returns to $74

Crude prices continue to surge, with WTI now closing in on the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) again.

The impressive bounce from the March lows shows no sign of stopping yet, though the downtrend of the past seven months is still intact. Any turn lower from below $80 would still constitute a lower high and leave the overall bearish view intact.

This would then suggest a fresh move to $65 is a possibility, as the downtrend reasserts itself.

WTI_310323.pngSource: ProRealTime

Coffee back to February highs

After rallying from the March lows the price looks to be preparing to push above the February highs.

Above 2200, the price will then target the August highs around 2280/2300, having traded in a wide range from 2030 to 2200 since the beginning of the year.

Coffee_310323.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Gold and Brent crude oil find support while copper is being capped

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and copper prices post extended Easter weekend.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 April 2023 

Brent remains sidelined in low volatility range

Brent crude oil continues to be sidelined around the $84.50 mark, having gapped higher in early April, following a surprise OPEC+ production cut of around 1.66 million barrels per day in response to declining prices.

Even though the oil price is on track to regain at least some of Monday’s losses, a rise above last week’s high at $85.94 is needed for the mid-February and March highs at $86.59 to $86.72 to be back in the picture.

Immediate support below Tuesday’s intraday low at $83.99 can be seen along the breached November-to-April downtrend line, which because of inverse polarity now acts as a support line, at $83.05. It sits within the March-to-April $79.91 to $83.45 gap, at least part of which is expected to be filled in the coming days with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $81.90 offering possible support.

11042023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold retracement lower has found support

Gold’s descent from last week’s one-year $2,032 per troy ounce high has found support along the March-to-April uptrend line at $1,990, both on Monday and also earlier this morning, despite equity markets resuming their advances after the Easter break amid risk-on sentiment.

The precious metal is about to revisit its $2,003 to $2,009 resistance area which consists of the late March highs, a rise above which would allow for last week’s high at $2,032 to be revisited. Were it to be exceeded, the March 2022 high and the August 2020 all-time high at $2,070-to-$2,075 would be back in the frame.

Support below Monday’s trough at $1,982 lies at the $1,959 February high.

11042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper recovery stalls along resistance line

The recovery in the price of copper from last week’s $8,666 per ton low on the back of a more positive economic outlook stalled along the March-to-April resistance line at $8,869 on Tuesday morning.

For the next higher 55-day SMA at $8,954 to be reached, a rise and daily chart close above Thursday’s and this morning’s intraday high at $8,874 needs to be seen. While this level caps, Wednesday’s Hammer high on the daily candlestick chart at $8,802 may be revisited.

Further down lies Tuesday’s intraday low at $8,776. Only currently unexpected failure at last week’s $8,666 low would engage the March low at $8,443.

11042023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

WTI, gold and silver prices continue to rise, the latter to levels last seen a year ago

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver ahead of publication of US FOMC minutes and CPI.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023 

WTI nears two-and-a-half-month high

WTI is about to trade in two-and-a-half-month highs after rallying by more than 2% in the previous session on signs of tighter global oil supplies and an industry report that pointed to another decline in US crude inventories at a key storage hub.

WTI is fast approaching last week’s peak at $81.79, above which beckon the January high and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.65 to $82.77 which may act as short-term resistance. Further up sits the December high at $83.30.

An upside bias should be maintained while Tuesday’s low at $79.40 underpins. Incidentally it was made along the breached January-to-April downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity, support line from where Tuesday’s rally began.

Below it minor support can be found at the $79.02 March-to-April gap high point with the gap descending all the way to $75.76.

12042023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold builds on Tuesday’s gains

Gold’s descent from last week’s one-year $2,032 per troy ounce peak found support along the March-to-April uptrend line, now at $1,997, both on Monday and Tuesday, before the price of the precious metal advanced by over a percent to Wednesday’s intraday high to date at $2,021 ahead of the publication of last month’s FOMC minutes and March CPI numbers.

Minor support sits between $2,009 to $2,003, the late March highs, and can also be found around the psychological $2,000 mark with last week’s high at $2,032 remaining in focus. Were it to be bettered, the March 2022 high and the August 2020 all-time high at $2,070-to-$2,075 would be back in the picture.

The medium-term uptrend remains intact while Monday’s low at $1,982 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Below it lies the $1,959 February high.

12042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver trades in one-year highs

The over 25% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce mark is showing no signs of slowing down ahead of Wednesday’s key US inflation data release and looks to be on track for its fifth consecutive week of gains.

The April 2022 peak at $26.22 represents the next upside target, followed by the March 2022 high at $26.95. The advance is being supported by the March-to-April uptrend line at $24.95 and will remain valid while the last reaction low at $24.57, made on Thursday of last week, underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

Together with the $24.63 February peak it offers good support but isn’t expected to be revisited anytime soon as Wednesday’s break out of last week’s congestion range occurred to the upside.

12042023XAGUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Brent crude oil and gold rise as natural gas slides

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and natural gas as Fed remains on track to hike one more time.

bg_oil_pump_366223843.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 April 2023 

Brent crude oil trades in 2 ½ month highs

Brent crude oil’s over 3% advance from Tuesday’s $83.59 low has taken it to a 2 ½ month high around the $87 handle amid tight global supply.

Early April’s surprise OPEC+ production cut of around 1.16 million barrels per day from May until year end, slowing oil shipments from Russia, and halted pipeline flows from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region all led to higher oil prices since the beginning of the month.

The mid-February and March highs at $86.59 to $86.72 have so far been reached with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $88.57 representing the next upside target, followed by the $89.01 January peak.

Support sits at last week’s high at $85.95 and further minor support in the $85.45 to $85.33 region where most of last week’s highs were made.

13042023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold price continues to rise

Gold’s ascent towards its one-year $2,032 per troy ounce early April peak remains on track amid a depreciating US dollar on softer-than-expected US inflation data for the month of March.

Were a rise above the $2,032 level to be seen, the March 2022 peak and the August 2020 all-time high at $2,070-to-$2,075 would be next in line. Support comes in along the March-to-April uptrend line at $2,005 which sits between $2,009 to $2,003, the late March highs.

The medium-term uptrend remains intact while Monday’s low at $1,982 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Below it lies the $1,959 February high.

13042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures resume their descent

US natural gas futures are slipping back towards their $2.105 late February and $2.065 early April lows on forecasts for milder weather and as Malaysia's national oil company Petronas aims to restart a gas pipeline currently under force majeure by the first quarter of 2024.

From a technical perspective US natural gas prices remain on track to reach the psychological $2.000 mark, provided they stay below this week’s high at $2.328 on a daily chart closing basis.

Below this level a resistance line can be spotted at $2.282, along with the late March high at $2.264, both of which may act as minor resistance.

13042023NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Gold enjoys more gains, while oil stalls and corn prices drop back

Gold has continued to rise, and US oil prices have returned to the 200-day SMA. Meanwhile, corn prices are falling once more.

bg_gold_363727164.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 April 2023 

Gold at one-year high

Gold has enjoyed another surge, taking it this time to its highest level in a year.

Bullish momentum shows no sign of slowing, though the price looks overextended at current levels. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is down at $1907, with a reversal to this level wiping out all the gains made since the beginning of March.

Further upside towards the 2022 high at $2070 will leave the price more overextended, though as yet there is no sign of a reversal developing.

Gold_140423.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI stalls at 200-day MA

The price has faltered at the 200-day SMA, having held on commendably well to the gains made since the OPEC+ production cut two weeks ago.

The price continues to hold above the highs from the end of 2022 and the early months of 2023, bolstering a near-term bullish view. The gap higher since the end of March has yet to see any reversal, and for the moment the bullish view prevails. A move above the 200-day would open the way to the $91.80 highs from November.

Alternately, a more bearish view requires a move back below $80, and a filling of the gap higher from the end of March. This might then suggest a renewed move lower was beginning.

WTI_140423.pngSource: ProRealTime

Corn suffers more losses

The reversal from the 50-day SMA has continued, and now the price is on the cusp of being given fresh bearish impetus by a bearish MACD crossover.

Continued losses will target the March lows around 606, as the downtrend gains renewed momentum after the lower high at the beginning of April.

A reversal above the 50-day SMA might suggest another attempt to break above the April high at 654.

Corn_140423.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Gold and copper rise, while oil prices edge back

While WTI is still held back by the 200-day MA, gold and copper prices have made some headway in morning trading.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 April 2023 

Gold holds trendline support

After falling back on Friday the price has stabilised above $2000, leaving the upward move intact.

The price has found itself supported by US dollar weakness, while on the technical side trendline support since mid-March has helped buyers to prevent any sustained move lower.

The next major hurdle is the area around the 2022 highs, from $2050 to $2065. This provided an area of resistance on Friday, as might have been expected after the sharp move higher since the March low, and for now represents a barrier to further progress.

Gold_170423.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI still stuck at 200-day MA

The price continues to push up against the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but without any sign of it breaking higher yet.

Buyers will continue to take comfort from the fact that the price is holding around the $82 highs of December-February, putting a continued move higher into view.

As a result, the bullish view still holds sway, and will until we see a drop back below $80. This might then suggest that the gap higher from March will be closed, and could open the path to more downside.

WTI_170423.pngSource: ProRealTime

High grade copper pushes higher

After dropping back to the March lows, the price has clawed its way higher, and is holding steady in early trading after being knocked back from the highs on Friday.

The recovery above the 100- and 50-day SMAs has been a positive development, and puts the February high at 42,000 and then the January peak at 43,000 back into view as upside targets.

A move below rising trendline support from the March lows would be needed to suggest that the sellers have reasserted control.

Copper_170423.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Brent and gold stabilise while sugar remains bid on strong China data

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and sugar as China sees better-than-expected GDP, industrial output and retail sales data.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 April 2023 

Brent recoups some of Monday’s losses on strong China data

Brent crude oil’s slip from last week’s 2 ½ month $87.19 high on mounting recession fears leading to a possible drop in demand has been countered by strong data out of China showing that its economy grew by more than expected in the first quarter, its industrial output gained the most in five months and retail sales grew by the most in two years.

With the post-pandemic recovery looking to be well on track and demand for oil likely to rise, the price of oil recouped some of its recent losses with the front month Brent crude oil futures contract heading back up towards the $85.00 mark.

As long as Monday’s high at $86.23 isn’t bettered, however, further slips in the price of oil may be seen as investors globally are getting increasingly worried about the outlook for growth and interest rates.

The current April lows at $83.59 to $83.46 may thus be revisited with parts of the March-to-April gap down to $79.92 possibly also being filled. Immediate resistance sits at the early April high at $85.94.

18042023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold oscillates around the $2,000 mark

Gold’s reversal lower from its one-year $2,048 per troy ounce mid-April peak on the back of an appreciating US dollar which recovered from its one-year low on recent better-than-expected US data has taken the precious metal back to its $1,982 10 April low which so far holds.

Were it to be slipped through, however, at least a minor top would likely be formed with the February high at $1,959 representing the next downside target ahead of the $1,950 to $1,935 support zone which consists of the late March and early April lows.

Resistance can be spotted at the $2,003 to $2,009 late March highs ahead of the 5 April high at $2,032.

18042023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Price of sugar nears its eleven year high

The steep ascent in the price of sugar (no. 11 front month futures), due to production bottlenecks in key producer nations and countries like India throttling their exports, leading to strong global demand not being met, has last week taken it to an eleven year high at $24.29 for 112000 pounds of raw cane sugar.

The minor retracement lower since then to $23.25 on Friday was followed by another up leg early this week which targets the $24.00 July 2012 high, above which sits the September 2016 peak at $24.09 ahead of last week’s $24.29 high point.

The $24.00 to $24.29 key resistance zone may well cap the current advance in the near future in which case a fall through Friday’s low at $23.25 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to a top being formed, just as in 2012 and 2016.

18042023SB-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

WTI and silver are topping out short-term while cocoa trades in 6 ½ year highs

Technical outlook on WTI, silver and cocoa prices with the latter approaching the psychological $3,000 per metric ton mark.

BG_silver_23426516511134.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 

WTI continues to slide

WTI continues to slide as Chinese refineries processed a record amount of crude in March and as Russia’s crude oil exports bounced back above three million barrels a day last week, according to Bloomberg.

Iraq is also hoping to resume oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan after being halted last month, all of which puts downward pressure on the price of crude oil.

Last Tuesday’s low at $79.40 may be reached on a fall through the $80 mark with the breached January-to-March resistance line at $79.22, because of inverse polarity, now a support line, offering potential support. Further down sits the $79.02 March-to-April gap high point with the gap descending all the way down to $75.76.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the early April high at $81.79 caps on a daily chart closing basis. Further up meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.35.

19042023CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver price comes off its one-year high

The near 30% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce level in early March has given way to some profit taking with it slipping back below the $25 mark and heading back down towards the $24.63 early February high.

Together with the last reaction low at $24.57 it is likely to offer at least initial support. If slipped through, however, the December high at $24.30 may be reached next.

Immediate resistance can be found at Tuesday’s $25.32 high ahead of last week’s $26.09 one-year high. Further up sits the April 2022 peak at $26.22, followed by the March 2022 high at $26.95.

19042023XAGUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

NY cocoa futures surge to 6 ½ year high

Front month NY cocoa futures continue to surge higher and now trade in 6 ½ year highs whilst fast approaching the $2,992 August 2015 low and psychological $3,000 per metric ton level amid ongoing supply issues in top grower Ivory Coast.

Minor support can be seen at the $2,930 March peak. As long as the March-to-April uptrend line at $2,896 and the last reaction low at Monday’s $2,886 trough hold on a daily chart closing basis, an upside bias remains in place.

The medium-term uptrend will remain valid as long as the late March to April lows at $2,831 underpin on a daily chart closing basis.

19042023CC-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Brent crude oil and gold slide while copper rallies on rising risk-on sentiment

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and copper amid improving sentiment.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 

Brent crude oil remains under pressure

Brent crude oil’s April descent took it to a near one-month low at $77.36 last week as investors grapple with the prospect of further rate hikes, lingering recession fears and uncertain demand from top importer China.

Brent crude oil’s recovery rally from last Friday petered out at $80.49 and whilst it and the one-month downtrend line at $80.16 cap, renewed downside is expected to be witnessed.

Were the January low and the late April low at $77.65 to $77.36 to be slipped through, the December trough at $75.32 would be eyed. Further down lies the $70.09 March low.

While Friday’s high at $80.49 caps, further downside is expected to be seen. Above it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) $81.25.

02052023LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold slips towards the lower end of its sideways trading range

Gold continues to range trade below its one-year $2,048 per troy ounce April peak and does so around the psychological $2,000 mark while being stuck in a sideways trading range between $2,012 and $1,970 since mid-April, the break out of which is likely to determine the ensuing trend.

JPMorgan’s US government-backed takeover of First Republic Bank over the weekend has led to risk-on sentiment which pushed the gold price lower.

A fall and daily chart close below the $1,970 mid-April low would target the February high at $1,959, ahead of the $1,950 to $1,935 support zone, made up of the late March and early April lows.

Immediate resistance above the minor psychological $2,000 mark continues to be seen between the $2,006 to $2,009 mid-to late April highs.

Only a currently unexpected rise and daily chart close above the $2,012 level would engage the 5 April high at $2,032 and probably also the $2,048 peak.

02052023XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper bounces off its March and April lows

The price of copper gapped higher on Monday morning, having previously bounced off its March and April $8,443 to $8,428 per ton lows, as risk-on sentiment rises.

Monday’s minor price gap at $8,650 to $8,639 might nonetheless be filled before further upside takes the industrial metal back towards its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,873.

Only a currently unexpected drop through the $8,428 April trough would engage the 200-day SMA at $8,322. Further down sits the January trough at $8,189.

02052023COPPER-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

WTI drops on recession fears while gold and silver rally on flight to safety

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver ahead of Wednesday’s anticipated Fed 25 basis-point rate hike.

BG_gold_98498465655.jpgSource:Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 May 2023 

WTI drops to five-week low

The slide in the price of crude oil is gaining traction with WTI now trading at levels last seen in late March whilst approaching the December trough at $70.25 and the minor psychological $70 mark ahead of Wednesday’s US Fed rate hike decision.

Failure at the $70 mark would open the way for the March trough at $64.37 to be back in focus.

Good resistance now sits between the January and February lows at $72.50 to $72.64 as well as at the late April low at $73.88. While the accelerated downtrend line at $75.42 isn’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis, further downside pressure is likely to take the price of oil lower still as recessionary fears grow.

USD.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold benefits from safe haven inflows

The gold price has finally broken out of its three-week triangle formation and did so to the upside on safe haven flows as the US regional bank index slid by 6% on contagion fears on Tuesday.

The early April high at $2,032 per troy ounce is thus being eyed, a rise above which would push the April peak at $2,048 back to the fore.

Upside pressure should be maintained while the recent lows seen on the daily chart between $1,978 and $1,970 underpin. Minor support above these levels comes in along the breached triangle resistance line – now because of inverse polarity support line – at $2,006 and around the psychological $2,000 mark.

Gold.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver trades near its one-year highs

The 28% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce mark in early March gave way to some sideways consolidation over the past three weeks with last week’s low at $24.50 offering good support.

While it underpins, another attempt at reaching this years April and current May highs at $25.91 to $26.09 remains at hand. If overcome, the April 2022 high at $26.22 could be reached.

Only a currently unexpected fall through the $24.50 low would make us question our medium-term bullish forecast.

Silver.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Gold holds steady and oil drops, while orange juice pullback slows

Gold prices have edged higher and oil prices are down this morning, while the longer-term trend in orange juice prices is holding up despite the recent pullback.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 15 May 2023 

Gold stabilises above trendline support

The price fell back from highs last week, but the short-term uptrend is intact.

Support from the March lows comes into play around $1992, so a move below here would mark a short-term bearish development. This might open the way to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), plus trendline support from the November lows.

A fresh recovery targets $2050 once again.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

WTI down in early trading

Last week witnessed a fresh turn lower below the 50-day SMA, an indication that the sellers remain in control.

This now puts a move back to the $65 level in view, an area of support in March and back in December 2021.

The failed rally of March and April handed the sellers the upper hand, and continued declines below a falling 50-day SMA maintain the bearish outlook.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Orange juice heads to 100-day MA

The pullback here has returned to the 100-day SMA for the first time since September.

This has taken the price to its lowest level since mid-March, but could yet see the creation of a higher low and a revival of the bullish view.

This might then prompt a move back towards the April highs at 28,000.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

WTI recovers on supply-side disruptions while gold and silver continue to gradually slide

Outlook on WTI, gold and silver ahead of speeches by several US Federal Reserve committee members.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 16 May 2023 

WTI tries to hold onto Monday’s gains

On Monday WTI recovered from its $69.39 one-week low as supply-side disruptions and the resumption of US oil reserve purchases propped up prices.

The large number of wildfires in Canada represent a growing threat of supply disruptions, as does the third seizure in a month of a foreign-flagged tanker in the Persian Gulf by Iran, while the US replenishes its depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries planned for August.

Despite this, WTI has so far not managed to break through its April-to-May downtrend line at $71.92. For a bullish reversal to gain traction, a rise and daily chart close above the next higher $73.82 high, made last week, would need to ensue.

While this hasn’t happened, the risk of further downside pressure manifesting itself on global recession fears and lacklustre growth in top importing country China leading to reduced future demand, remains in play.

A drop through last week’s low at $69.39 could push the March and early May lows at $64.37 to $63.77 back to the fore.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Gold remains under pressure

The price of gold continues to gradually come off its early May multi-year high and is about to retest its breached April triangle resistance line, now because of inverse polarity a support line at $1,998 per troy ounce.

It has acted as support over the past week but if it were to be slid through, the April triangle support line at $1,985 may be revisited.

With this week’s economic calendar looking sparse, traders will look to guidance from a host of Federal Reserve speakers such as Bostic, Kashkari, Barkin and Cook on Tuesday which may provide some volatility, the most important of which will be on Friday when Fed chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.

Meanwhile resistance between $2,022 to $2,032, Monday’s high and the 5 April peak, is expected to cap any minor advance.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Silver drops to six-week low

The price of silver has taken a hit amid a rising US dollar and relatively weak China industrial production growth with the precious metal sliding to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $23.72.

Below it lies the $23.50 zone around which the price of silver oscillated from December to early February with the late January low at $22.76 representing the lowest level of this sideways trading range.

In case of a currently unexpected recovery to above Monday’s $24.21 high being seen, the February high and late April low at $24.50 to $24.63 are expected to offer good resistance.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      22,073
    • Total Posts
      92,914
    • Total Members
      42,474
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    scobes2
    Joined 17/05/23 10:51
  • Posts

    • Markets cheer as US avoids default, but liquidity, sovereign debt downgrade, and rising interest rates loom large.   Source: Bloomberg   Debt United States United States debt ceiling Government debt Market liquidity Default  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 29 May 2023  US averts default, sparks market relief In a collective sigh of relief, regional equity markets and US stock futures are basking in the news of a tentative deal clinched by US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. This critical agreement, designed to raise the debt ceiling, averts a potentially catastrophic default. As the prospect of financial Armageddon loomed, default was never truly on the table. However, the danger that negotiations might overshoot the theoretical X-date was palpable. Such a scenario would've compelled the US Treasury to juggle a medley of special measures, concessions, and preferential payments, in a replay of the mid-'90s, where financial and political destruction was rife. The ball is now in Congress's court, as we anticipate the legislation's passage within the week. Fitch's warning shot: US sovereign debt under scrutiny Last week's announcement by Fitch to put the United States Sovereign Debt on credit watch negative may have been the catalyst to hasten the debt deal. Unfortunately, the terms of the deal that allow the debt ceiling to remain uncapped for two years will do little to ease Fitch's angst and may still result in a costly downgrade. "The failure of the US authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges that will lead to rising budget deficits and a growing debt burden." Another side effect of leaving a deal to the eleventh hour is that the cash balance in Treasury's account used for daily payments has fallen to less than US$50 billion and needs rebuilding. To do this Treasury is expected to issue US$1 trillion of bills over the next two months, draining liquidity from the system. Rate hike on the horizon: Market anticipates tighter monetary policy In isolation, a liquidity drain would be more manageable if not for the hotter-than-expected Core PCE Price Index print on Friday night (4.7% in April vs 4.6% exp). Fuelled also by hawkish overtones from numerous Fed speakers, the rates market is now assigning a 65% chance of a 25bp rate hike for the upcoming June FOMC meeting. The 100bp rate cuts priced into the US rates market by year-end after the banking crisis has narrowed to just 35bp. While the weekend's debt deal has enabled markets to breathe a sigh of relief, the market will likely soon focus on the impact of tighter liquidity, a sovereign debt downgrade, and higher interest rates. S&P 500 technical analysis Holding a high-conviction technical view has been impossible while debt ceiling negotiations played out. Now they are in the rear vision mirror, presuming the S&P 500 can hold above range highs 4210/4185 (closing basis), allow for the S&P 500 to rally initially towards the August 4327.50 high. Aware that a daily close below 4185 would warn the break higher has failed and likely see another round of choppy range trading unfold, with scope back to 4060ish. S&P 500 daily chart   Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis Post the Nvidia earnings report at the end of last week and this morning's debt deal rally, the Nasdaq is officially well and truly into overbought territory. However, as viewed during the dot com bubble in the late '90s and many others since, when animal spirits take hold, rallies can extend a lot further than expected. Dips will likely be shallow and well-met by buyers eager to participate in the current AI euphoria. Nasdaq daily chart   Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical analysis The saying goes that a rising tide lifts all boats. However, the Dow Jones really needs to break above the recent 34,257 high and the 34,342 year-to-date high to re-energise its upside prospects. In this case, we would expect to see a test of the 34,712 high from December 2022 with scope to the 35,492 high from April 2022. Dow Jones daily chart   Source: TradingView ASX 200 technical analysis Like its old economy counterpart in the US, the Dow Jones, the ASX 200 has languished in recent weeks due to a lack of heavyweight IT stocks within the index. That said, the debt ceiling deal has provided a lift for the ASX 200 this morning, with all sectors in positive territory apart from Consumer Discretionary. If the ASX 200 can break above downtrend resistance at 7300, coming from the February 7567 high, it would likely see the ASX 200 extend gains towards 7390/7400 in the short term. ASX 200 daily chart   Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of May 29, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
    • The gold price has succumbed to US dollar strength of late with the Fed in focus and Treasury yields and real yields continue to elevate and might add to dollar demand.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Commodities Gold United States dollar United States Futures contract Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Monday 29 May 2023  The gold price slid to a two-month low to start the week as concerns around the US debt ceiling appear to be subsiding at the same time that US yields are ticking higher. Treasury yields have been steadily climbing throughout the last few weeks across the curve, but the most notable changes have been seen at the short end of the curve. The benchmark 2-year bond made a run above 4.60% on Friday after having dipped to 3.66% earlier this month. The 1-year note also made a 23-year high on Friday when it nudged 5.30%. It touched 4.03% in early March and the higher rate of return reflects the markets’ perception that the Federal Reserve is less likely to be cutting rates this year. Interest rate swaps and futures markets have kicked that concept into 2024. The higher return from US dollar denominated debt seems to have broadly supported the ‘big dollar’. It is making multi-month peaks against many currencies and the commodity complex is generally lower but silver managed to notch up a decent rally on Friday. Although it still finished down for last week and it is steady to start this week near US$ 23.30 an ounce. Undermining the yellow metal is the rise in US real yields. The real yield is the nominal yield less the market-priced inflation rate derived from Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) for the same tenor. The widely watched US 10-year real yield is approaching 1.60%, a level not seen since the regional banking crisis unfolded back in March. When the inflation-adjusted return is rising, investors are left to ponder the outlook for non-interest-bearing commodities such as gold. The US dollar has been on a steady run higher of late and the direction in the DXY (USD) Index might lead the precious metal on its next move. At the same time, gold volatility has been slipping and this may indicate that the market is at ease with the current pricing. GC1 (gold futures), US 10-year real yield, DXY (USD) index, GVZ (gold volatility)   Source: TradingView GC1 (gold front futures contract) technical analysis Gold remains in an ascending trend channel that began in November last year but is currently testing the lower bound of that channel. The early May high of 2085.4 eclipsed the March 2022 peak of 2078.8 but was unable to overcome the all-time high of 2089.2. This failure to break new ground to the upside has created a Triple Top which is an extension of a Double Top formation. This has set up a potential resistance zone in the 20280 – 2090 area but a snap above those levels may indicate evolving bullishness. The next level of resistance could be at the upper ascending trend channel line that is currently near 2160. On the downside, the price is at an interesting juncture with the ascending trend line being questioned. At the same time, there are two prior lows near that trend line as well as the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A clean break below 1930 might see a bearish run unfold but if these levels hold, it may suggest that the overall bull run could continue. In this regard, the price action in the next few sessions might provide clues for medium-term direction. Gold futures daily chart   Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
    • Crude oil is holding above tough support, keeping alive the capitulation view; natural gas has fallen sharply, but the downside could be cushioned and what are the key levels to watch?   Source: Bloomberg   Commodities Petroleum Natural gas Gas OPEC United States    Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 29 May 2023  Crude oil: Boxed in a range Crude oil recouped some of last week’s losses as investors cheered a weekend deal in Washington to raise the government’s debt ceiling, potentially averting a disruptive government default. Oil has managed to hold recover despite Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s comments late last week that OPEC+ wasn’t likely to take further measures to change production levels at its meeting on June 4. This followed Saudi Energy Minister Price Abdulaziz bin Salman warning that speculators should ‘watch out’ for pain – a sign that the group was preparing to cut output. Crude oil monthly chart   Source: TradingView Still, the upside in oil could be capped as the US Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates further at its June meeting and demand concerns given the uneven post-Covid recovery in China. The market is pricing in a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on June 14 Vs a 17% chance a week ago and see no rate cuts until the end of the year. Crude oil daily chart   Source: TradingView On technical charts, crude oil’s hold above 64.00 could be a sign that oil may have capitulated following a multi-month decline. However, there are no signs of a reversal of the downtrend yet. In this regard, oil would need to break above the April high of 83.50 for the downward pressure to fade. Until then, the path of least resistance is sideways to down. Natural gas: Down but not out Natural gas prices dropped sharply on Friday, before recovering slightly on Monday morning in Asia, weighed by milder US weather and a rebound in Canadian natural gas exports to the US. Natural gas daily chart Source: TradingView Reports suggest the weather in the Lower 48 states would switch from cooler than normal From May 26-29 to mostly near normal from May 30 - June 10. Furthermore, earlier this month, wildfires forced Canadian producers to cut natural gas exports to the US. However, last week, exports appear to be recovering to levels seen before the wildfires. Still, the downside in natural gas prices could be limited by declining drilling activity on oversupply conditions and tighter credit conditions. On technical charts, so long as natural gas stays above the February low of 1.97, some more upside can be expected, potentially toward the March high of 3.03. Natural gas monthly chart   Source: TradingView     This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
×
×
  • Create New...