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GBPUSD retrace trade

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Somewhat similar to USDCAD, GBP has made a Channel breakout and current retest of the breakout zone.  Can't declare it as failed yet and we could see another small dip before a rally away, which also probably requires further USD weakness to trigger.  Wonder what EURUSD and DX is doing...?  

GBPUSD-1-hour_030619.thumb.png.87fbfa5ee698714ed769446a483bc868.png

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Slow progress on this one so far but still heading up.  EURGBP is still going up too and until this pair turns we are unlikely to see GBPUSD hammering up but when it does turn then I do expect GBP to go hard in a wave C to about the 13,700-14,000 level.  Unlike EURUSD, which should conform to an A-B-C form retrace the A-B looks to be already done on GBP and a wave C is a much stronger move in general.  The only thing I might expect to see is a strong Pennant or Flag at halfway, that would most likely coincide with EURUSD wave B.

Very similarly to EURUSD I took Longs off the short term channel breakout and failed retest and again on Monday and Thursday last on failed resistance breakout retests.  As this market offers more potential than other options I will be focusing my attention here to exploit the possible 1000+ points on offer in anticipated wave C.

GBPUSD-1-hour_080619.thumb.png.682dc7f1e96e059abfe347bc494de9a1.png 

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After a retrace bearish move GBPUSD is coming up on a couple of key resistance levels.  A break of the top one would result is not that much resistance until about the 13200 level.  Supporting this is the EURGBP breakout to the Bearish side in play as I write.  Long term prognosis remains unchanged.

GBPUSD-1-hour_120619.thumb.png.134dc1c96d29d44f9b213c5605d5e6d6.png

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This pair didn't have the juice to breakout today and like EUR has reversed, likely in a wave C to conclude a retrace move that ought to carry to below the Wave A point (12650).  For my money it will at least make the Fib 62% but the Fib 76/78% is also likely, these lines of support straddle the original channel breakout point.

GBPUSD-1-hour_120619.thumb.png.779e54430f16d77231c781d62b34a92e.png

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My last chart on this timeframe showing the period since brexit.   I still think that yellow line level needs a retest, but that may depend on any Fed action, we'll see

Capture gu.PNG

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Last ditch support for GBP as it hits the Fib 88% (fairly rare) turning point.  Usually the game is up when we get past Fib 78% and it could still be but the late rally on the 1 hour chart gives a bit of hope that this market, aligned to other similar pairs, is turning.  As with EUR I would like to see a short term 1-2 move and rally away to confirm.

GBPUSD-1-hour_150619.thumb.png.f83579443c9884f99fbecd16dbe252f5.png

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On ‎13‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 06:31, elle said:

My last chart on this timeframe showing the period since brexit.   I still think that yellow line level needs a retest, but that may depend on any Fed action, we'll see

Capture gu.PNG

trying to break the "May low"  , then the yellow line below

Capture gu.PNG

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GBPUSD drops down to execute a turn on the Fib 88% to complete an A-B.  If this holds (i.e. a break through the 12,430 support zone does not occur in the near future) we can expect a fast rally wave C.  PMD and a credible EWT A-B-C retrace form supports the rally.  Might see a small 1-2 before a large rally gets going, although I can see a bit more to go in the initial wave 1 yet.  Buy the dips as the Fed reenters the currency wars.

I am Long off the Fib 88% turn and stop protected just below against a deep 1-2 retrace.

GBPUSD-Daily_190619.thumb.png.6e2c800fbee576feea13c7d9f7a8d02e.png

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