GBPUSD retrace trade

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

GBP collapsing - fundamental situation identical to election night.  Why are retail traders even allowed to bet on such heavily manipulated/rigged markets?  Can anyone show me any kind of TA that actually works in forex?

I can see your TA and know exactly how to take advantage of it so I'll call and raise you 20 🙂

[dmedin]

8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I can see your TA and know exactly how to take advantage of it so I'll call and raise you 20 🙂

 

TA revealed that GBP would dramatically reverse more than 100% of its gains when the fundamental situation is completely unchanged?

[dmedin]

Boris 'There will be no extension' Johnson is a lying sack of sh!t, and nobody is stupid enough to believe anything he says, so I can only conclude that the suits in London are doing what they do best - bending others over a barrel and going in dry.

[Mercury]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Boris 'There will be no extension' Johnson is a lying sack of sh!t, and nobody is stupid enough to believe anything he says, so I can only conclude that the suits in London are doing what they do best - bending others over a barrel and going in dry.

BoJo is no more of a liar than McDonnell or any of them.  In reality they tell the electorate what they want to hear to secure the election.  Tony "honest there's weapons of mass destruction in them yonder sand dunes" Blair is the past master.  Often they seem to be lying to themselves as in Gordon Brown's "no return to Tory boom and bust" a double lie in fact, whether to convince the electorate or to bolster their own faith in themselves who knows.

The notion that professional traders are targeting retail traders, which seems to be what you are suggesting, have suggested in the past, is not true.  The pros vie with each other, retail is a tiny infinitesimally small part of the market.  The elephant is completely dispassionate about the ant he squashes inadvertently.

16 minutes ago, dmedin said:

TA revealed that GBP would dramatically reverse more than 100% of its gains when the fundamental situation is completely unchanged?

I'm curious, are you a technical trader or a fundamentals trader (and what do you mean by fundamentals, how do you analyse the fundamentals?) or a data/news trader?  What markets do you focus on?  Do you have a good sense of the ebbs and flows of the markets you trade?  From your posts I cannot tell.

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Mercury said:

The notion that professional traders are targeting retail traders, which seems to be what you are suggesting, have suggested in the past, is not true.

The notion that institutions don't try to **** over little people is just stupid.  Most people couch it in more neutral language, that's all.

Apropos from Reuters:

Quote

Some investors had thought that Johnson would use his majority in Parliament to adopt a more moderate approach towards Brexit negotiations

 

Anyone who thought that is a total **** moron and I don't believe the big institutions (who, alone, move the market) believed it. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Mercury said:

I'm curious, are you a technical trader or a fundamentals trader (and what do you mean by fundamentals, how do you analyse the fundamentals?) or a data/news trader?  What markets do you focus on?  Do you have a good sense of the ebbs and flows of the markets you trade?  From your posts I cannot tell.

 

Not sure what you are curious about here.  Fairly sure you're trying to make a point of some kind, but phrasing it in some kind of neutral language.

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Mercury said:

BoJo is no more of a liar than McDonnell

Again, I'm not stupid enough to believe that either.  The Tories are a nest of pure unadulterated skum.

Edited December 17, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

What kind of trader am I?  

A sh!t one.

 

[Mercury]

14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Not sure what you are curious about here.  Fairly sure you're trying to make a point of some kind, but phrasing it in some kind of neutral language

Hmm, not everyone wants to score points, although many seem to want to do that so your skepticism is understandable.  If you want to discussed it ok otherwise I will leave you to your misery.

[dmedin]

36 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Hmm, not everyone wants to score points, although many seem to want to do that so your skepticism is understandable.  If you want to discussed it ok otherwise I will leave you to your misery.

Happy to be wrong but not to be wrong AND lose money.

100% of the GBP rise was captured by the big boys, retail clients were literally locked out of the market and it was over in minutes. 

So you're telling me the institutions really thought Boris Johnson would stretch out Brexit for years to come and the massive **** selloff is simply the astonished, naieve reaction of good-natured traders?  And not some kind of massive bull trap designed to screw people over?

Edited December 17, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Happy to be wrong but not to be wrong AND lose money.

100% of the GBP rise was captured by the big boys, retail clients were literally locked out of the market and it was over in minutes. 

As I mentioned in this thread (or another one) earlier, you need to use orders to get in if expecting a sudden high volatility move because orders are processed on a first come first served basis and so trying to use a market order puts you at the back of the queue. The computer doesn't know who you are it just processes the orders in sequence. See below I got filled bang on 10pm and so could you have.

 

[Mercury]

Quite a number of IG clients that I am aware off went Long prior to the exit polls on the pull back and cashed around 1.35, which was a zone of resistance, some reversed Short, as did I, seeking a gap close.  Secondary target is a retest of the Flag breakout (12950 - 13000) before the next rally phase.  These are all retail, so not just the big boys.  Thinking about GBPUSD as all about GBP is an error.  It is mostly about USD.  If you look at EURUSD and AUDUSD you will see a very similar pattern from 10PM on Thursday (exit poll). GBPUSD was amplified by the election and the nature of Cable, which tends to be spiky relative to EURUSD for instance, a bit like Silver is to Gold perhaps.

Generally major volatility inducing events such as elections and bug data releases are to be avoided unless you really have a feel for the market, better to wait and see how it pans out of be in early and stop protected. Rather than the so-called big boys seeking to trap retail it is perhaps more about algo impacts, and retail trying to follow and not being nimble enough.  This is generally not my game, although the gap close Short was too tempting to pass up.  I stick to longer term position taking, which obviates the need to worry too much about specific data releases, although clearly an election is a special event.  I remain long term bullish GBPUSD (bearish USD) but we may see some further retrace price action before this gets back on track.

[Mercury]

32 minutes ago, dmedin said:

So you're telling me the institutions really thought Boris Johnson would stretch out Brexit for years to come and the massive **** selloff is simply the astonished, naieve reaction of good-natured traders?

In addition it is a mistake, IMO, to seek to find reasons for market moves of a short term nature.  The MSM constantly seek to feed people a diet of this kind of post hoc rationalisation.  For me it goes into the "who cares" file, but then I am not a day trader, perhaps it is more important for them.  The key market mover is sentiment (greed/fear).  It is often NOT rational.  Sometimes the market reverses because traders believe it will and want to lock in profits.  Professional traders are judged on profit, especially so as we near the end of the year.  This is also what drove the turn in Gold/Silver when many were talking it up, up and away.  This sentiment, human nature if you will, is what EWT seeks to map.  It is inexorable and there are  many ways to spot it, some use support/resistance (or supply/demand) levels or ladders, others use EWT and Fibonacci retraces.  It's all just a means to the same end.

[phillo]

On ‎13‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 09:44, elle said:

 

[Mercury]

Two likely scenarios for this bearish phase to conclude:

1. Retest of the recent flag consolidation
2. Retest of the weekly channel line (or breakout zone)

[phillo]

On ‎13‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 09:43, elle said:

 

 

[Mercury]

Possible turn off the Flag breakout zone support with on an A-B-C retrace and PMD on the 1H chart.

[dmedin]

Will probably just be a shallow retrace to 23% or a test of S1 pivot followed by a resumption of extreme heavy selling for reasons that only God and the City knows.  I'm holding on to my big loss for now.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

The unrelenting selloff continues - markets genuinely shocked that pro-Brexit party that promised to deliver Brexit is planning to deliver Brexit.  Lessons learned, everybody?

 

[Mercury]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

he unrelenting selloff continues - markets genuinely shocked that pro-Brexit party that promised to deliver Brexit is planning to deliver Brexit.  Lessons learned, everybody?

Assuming it has anything at all to do with Brexit or the Tories or whatever.  Looks to me more like a conventional retest of the Flag breakout.  Right now I am looking at this as a small 1-2 retrace off the pinbar reversal (potential).  if this holds then we may see a significant rally, aligned to a broader USD bearish move.  If not stops just below the previous candle low for a low exposure Long.  Let's see..

[phillo]

On ‎19‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 15:27, elle said:

 

 

[Mercury]

On 19/12/2019 at 20:25, Mercury said:

Assuming it has anything at all to do with Brexit or the Tories or whatever.  Looks to me more like a conventional retest of the Flag breakout.

Looks like we did get that Flag retest and bounce, although with a lot less conviction than other USD pairs.  This is consistent with my EURGBP analysis, which favours EUR in the short to medium term.  I am sticking with my assessment of a weaker rally to maybe 13800 area from here, followed by another bearish retrace and them maybe my alternative set up will take precedence and breakout through the long term resistance channel to the upside, surprising the conventional view that the UK and sterling is on its knees, a view I do not share.  However I am more cautions on this pair right now as an alternative scenario with has the market retesting the weekly channel line down around 12500 is still on and also consistent with my EURGBP set up.  My positions on GBP are light and with close stops.

 

[CharlotteIG]

We have a piece on cable from DFX. Who are, on the daily charts looking at the uptrend for cable that could be coming. What are your thoughts on this? We do have some US news out today at 13:30 GMT USD Trade Balance (Nov).

 

 

You can find the full article here.

Please note, these are just ideas from TA not advice. 

[dmedin]

UK GDP weak, BoE rate cut, short GBP and long FTSE 100 😻

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy/uk-annual-economic-growth-slows-to-weakest-since-2012-in-november-idUKKBN1ZC0S9

[CharlotteIG]

Just wanted to keep you in the loop for announcements over the next few days if you trade off the back of news or if you have TA running on Cable. This is all working off GMT time: 

 

[dmedin]

🤔

[dmedin]

Might be a breakout to the upside, especially seeing as how the FTSE 100 is taking a dump this morning.

Edited January 16, 2020 by dmedin

[Mercury]

Aligned to the EURUSD post I see a potential bearish move on GBP, which should retest the prior breakout zone at a minimum and may well retest the previously broken trend line.  Similar to EURUSD the price action is more in keeping with an A-B-C (complex version) retrace rather than a strong rally at present so we may have to wait for this to complete before any potential major rally.  At best, given the uncertainly, I am cautiously MT bearish but remain LT bullish.  

[dmedin]

Retail sales -0.6% compared to est 0.5%

Interest rate cut on the way, short the pound

 

Edited January 17, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

19 hours ago, Mercury said:

remain LT bullish

I hope so too, and this will be the case if large-scale government investment drives up the interest rates.  British business is falling on its ****