Jump to content

The Canadian hidden Cypher

Guest CorbCoropFX

Recommended Posts

Guest CorbCoropFX
just now
Hey guys, today I found a possible Cypher in the USDCAD . 
In my opinion, after the price will break the B point resistance would smoothly go into the completion of the Cypher D point at 1.1310 perfectly aligned with a bearish trendline , giving me the clue of possible bearish momentum around that area. a nice set-up on this trade could be to short at the completion of the D point with a stop loss above structure at 1.3182 and taking profits respectively at 1.304 and 1.295. 
Hope you'll find this helpful ;) 
do not hesitate to add info or to share your idea on it.

usdcad Cypher.png

Link to comment

This one I do watch @CorbCoropFX although I am not familiar with the concept of cyphers (at least not in the conext of trading...).  Therefore I cannot comment on your analysis per se 

My analysis points to a long term rally on this pair, in line with my prognosis for a long term rally across the USD board.  In terms of the specific for USDCAD my Monthly chart shows the long term set up from the major market bottom into a rally that is currently in a period of consolidation in the from of a Pennant Triangle.  If I have drawn this right then the Pennant has recently been broken to the upside and is currently retesting.  I am not sure yet whether or not this retest is complete with a rejection into rally phase 2.

Looking at the Daily chart for more clues I see a shorter term Flag formation just above the Monthly Pennant.  This Flag may prove false in that the Monthly Pennant line is likely to be stronger (note the larger time-frame lines do not map accurately onto the smaller ones so I have drawn a fresh one on the Daily (Blue line).

I have a number of other indicators supporting the Monthly Pennant rally trigger, which I wont detail just now and on the daily I see 2 scenarios, one that I think fits yours short term:

  1. Price is rejected by the upper Flag line or associated resistance levels and returns down to retest the Monthly Pennant line, perhaps around the Fib 62% level and creates  stronger PMD in support of a rally away from this support zone and an eventual break out through upper resistance zone into the long term rally.  This turn may occur prior to Stock tops and main USD rally but the upper breakout may will occur coincidental with that.
  2. Price breaks through the upper resistance zone and CAD leads the US rally (i.e. an early signal).  We have already had PMD at the last turn at the Fib 50% so this is an eminently possible scenario.  I probably prefer #1 but let's see

Oil may play a role here as the Canadian economy is influenced by Oil.  The relationship is never 100% all the time but in general when Oil goes up CAD gets a boost, unless the USD favourables out weigh.  As it happens I am forecasting another leg up for Oil before the top out on this market so that would support another leg down for UsDCAD.


Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Other USD pairs are proving a bit tricky to trade at present, being quite choppy and thereby exposing risk to whiplash.  This is common with wave Bs so I retain my assessment and am waiting for a definitive final push up to complete the retrace before a massive bear move (bull on USD).  USDCAD is behaving much more to plan at present, having recently hit the previously identified upper Triangle line and bounced back down.  Might see another attempt to push up [which could align to a final drop leg on EURUSD and GBPUSD before that retrace rally] but the signs are looking decent for a return back to the lower Triangle line and a termination at the Fib 62%, after which I anticipate a strong rally in line with an across the board USD rally.


  • Like 1
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

So looks like the turn was at the Fib 50% and we will not get a return down to the 62%.  It is looking like a confirmed breakout of the Daily Triangle, would like to see some strong rally action to fully confirm but have a small retest and bounce now and a secondary Triangle breakout on the 1 hour chart, offering a low risk stop placement just below.  If we see a rally through the recent high around 13,160 I will start to become more confident.  And just as a reminder I attache my Monthly chart which shows massive potential on this pair when if blows out!

Note this pair can happily run contrary to other USD pairs, especially if Oil is weakening...

Thoughts anyone? @PandaFace @Caseynotes @elle @TrendFollower (nice trend to follow maybe...)


Link to comment

Thanks @TrendFollower, appreciate it is not your thing.  I get where you are coming from on the middle of the trend thing.  For me I want to trade the EW wave 3, longest and strongest move, or the Wave C or a retrace, which is similar.  Other phases are prone to sharp pullbacks and whiplash.

In terms of this set up, if the Flag formation is valid, then we should be in for a long and strong run up.  The only pull back risk is for a retest of the Flag breakout zone, that's the blue line on my daily chart.  On the hourly chart the small Triangle acts as a similar breakout so I can set my stops just below the upper line breakout point, in fact just below the previous lows around 13,125 of thereabouts.  These stops will get taken out on a hard retest or retest of the Daily Flag line but for a very small loss so I would just seek to reenter on a better lower set up.  If this pair does rally away hard then I am in great shape.

Bear in mind that we have already had a break and retest of the Weekly/Monthly Triangle, which is very bullish in my view and that retest move acts as an initial EW 1-2 retrace so the next move up should be a wave 3 (i.e. the middle portion of the trend, but very early in it...)  and will PMD on Weekly and Daily the set up is good, not withstanding the risk of retrace and retest before it really gets going.


Here is the Weekly chart for perspective on that Triangle breakout.


Link to comment

My entry Long from last night didn't work, the 1 hour set up was too weak but losses limited by close stops and we try again.  This time there is a breakout and retest of the Daily Flag line, much stronger.  I have oscillators coming out of over sold on the 1 hour.  The Daily Flag line looks solid at present, however until I see another higher high I cannot rule out a fake breakout scenario, which would result in a return back within the Flag channel and a likely run down to the lower line (62% Fib).  Therefore close stops are again required on this one and/or wait for the higher high to be revealed.  As this pair sometimes goes in the opposite direction to Oil I am seeking a sharp rally before a retrace (inverse of Oil road map).  However if USD weakness proves the more dominate force then the alternative scenario could easily hold true.

Trading strategy:

  1. Given the point on offer in a rally, the low risk and low exposure of a close stop Long at the Flag turn point is ok.  As I am expecting a strong retrace I would not pyramid until that was over.
  2. If the above trade is taken out then I will assume the alternative scenario and stand aside until resolved and look again for a bounce off the lower Flag line.


Link to comment

@TrendFollower, no I am strictly a long term swing trader, wouldn't touch day trading with a barge pole - for me that is trying to beat the computers, no chance for me at least...  The tight stop is because either the market should turn off a retest of the Flag area or push down through into the alternative scenario.  Because I cannot yet be sure I keep a close stop, risking a possible hard retest back onto the flag and eventual rally away, leaving me behind (that's trading - risk management).  I agree your strategy (Win big lose small), which is why my stops are tight.  If a I lose a few quick trades and am successful in getting Long on a big move then I win big and lose small, job done.  I can then look at a Pyramiding strategy (leveraging my first successful trade) as the main trend (rally in this case) progresses, using the same approach.

In this scenario, should you be minded to trade Long, where would you place the stops?  I note you would actually wait to see a more confirmed trend.


Link to comment

BTW, as I was posting the market moved down and now looks like a break back into the Flag and a possible retest of the lower line so perhaps it is a moot point after all.  Still that confirms to me my approach on this one, other than waiting of course but you never know and the upside was very attractive (and will be even more so from the Fib 62% below...


Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Recent price action has caused me to reassess this pair.  I still see a likely bearish move before a strong rally gets underway, and this may coincide with both weakness in the USD generally and a retrace rally in Oil so we have some potential decent correlation there.  On the Daily chart the market has hit some resistance and a turn here would bring up the end of a possible wave B, resulting in a fairly fast bearish move down in wave C.

Trading Strategy:

  • A sort of a confirmed turn with a close stop could be ok, although I thing there are better returns elsewhere so I am no taking this
  • I prefer to watch from the sidelines to see if this pair does indeed move down to a good rally point and then consider going Long for the long term rally move on the USD generally.


Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

USDCAD turning at the Fib 62% retrace after a drop down from a potential Wave B of a large A-B-C.  If correct the next move will be down and long & fast.  This would also correlate perhaps to a rally in Oil and/or a drop in USD.

Short off the turn with close stops just above.


Link to comment

SO that wave B top wan't actually as the market rallied again but an idea that doesn't work out initially may do so at a later stage, the markets have a habit of throwing in another leg before throwing in the towel, hence patience and good stops are vital.

Now it looks like USDCAD may well have made that Wave B I was looking for and this time at the last chance saloon of a double top.  Elsewhere I have commented that we are getting a lot of deep retrace moves these days and this looks like a classic example, if it now carries on down.

The technical set up:

  • This Bearish move would be a counter trend rally so caution is needed but a double tops is a good kick off signal.  On the Daily I have a bounce back off key resistance to from that double top and NMD.  I have an ascending Triangle channel, which if broken will be a good Bearish signal.  A retrace should reach below the Wave A at least to around 12,700 to complete a larger retrace pattern Green 1-2
  • On the hourly we see the right hand of the double top, the NMD is clear.  We have had a retrace to the Fib 62% (1-2 Brown in A-B-C: just short actually so could possibly put in another test of this level) and another smaller 1-2 (light blue) in progress.
  • I will not be fully happy until the lower Blue Triangle is broken but a break of the Pink line will be encouraging
  • With the USD potentially in a small reaction rally period this market is moving contra to USD pairs.  Could be a signal that the current small Oil rally has further to go... 



Link to comment

Just to complete the story on USDCAD, looks like we got a text book Triangle breakout and now with a small retrace on the hourly chart (not shown), which if backed up with a lower low (below 13,160) should signal an extended Bearish move in line with general USD bearishness.


Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 04/06/23 19:52
  • Posts

    • Stock Market Elliott Wave Summary: SP500 - NASDAQ 100 - RUSSELL 2000 - DAX 40 - FTSE 100 - ASX 200 SP 500:  Expect the price above and below 4,300 the top of Minor Group 1 and the 61.8% retracement level from the all-time high. Expect a Classic TradingLevels pattern at 4,300 then further upside... Nasdaq 100: heading slightly higher into Elliott Wave (v) of iii) with next resistance Minor Group 2 14,650 with support at 14,500 and 14,300 for Wave iv) Russell 2000: Support 1830, next target 1850 DAX 40: Elliott Wave (iii) to 16,100 Wave (iv) retesting 16,000. FTSE 100: wave (iii) top 7650 then expect wave (iv) correction 7630. ASX 200: Elliott Wave c of (iv) back towards 7200 - 7210 then upwards towards 7265 – 7300 Video Chapters 00:00 SP 500 (SPX) 10:05 NASDAQ (NDX) 14:08 Russell 2000 (RUT) 18:07 DAX 40 (DAX) 27:25 FTSE 100 (UK100) 30:09 ASX 200 (XJO) 38:10 End Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com   Access Trial    
    • The inclusion of trading volume as a standard indicator in charting software for the past three decades is not without reason—it offers a vital advantage. Volume analysis grants traders valuable insights into the actions of market participants at different price levels. By focusing on volume, traders can react more effectively to price movements rather than attempting to predict the future direction of prices, as is often the case with many other technical indicators. 📍Key points about volume Here are the key points regarding the volume indicator commonly plotted on the X-axis in trading: 🔹Volume Indicator: The volume indicator calculates the total number of shares or contracts traded during a specified time period. It is usually displayed as a histogram or line chart, with time represented on the X-axis. 🔹Liquidity: Volume is a critical metric as it provides insights into the liquidity of a security. Higher volume generally indicates greater market participation and liquidity, making it easier to buy or sell the asset without significantly impacting its price. 🔹Confirmation: Volume can validate the authenticity of price movements. In an uptrend, increasing volume supports the bullish move, indicating strength and conviction among buyers. Conversely, declining volume during an uptrend may signal weakness or lack of interest. The same principles apply to downtrends. 🔹Breakouts and Reversals: Volume analysis is often employed to identify breakouts and potential trend reversals. A significant increase in volume during a breakout suggests a higher probability of a sustained move, while decreasing volume near a support or resistance level might indicate a potential reversal. 🔹Divergence: Volume can unveil discrepancies between price and market sentiment. For instance, if prices are rising while volume is decreasing, it could suggest that the rally is losing momentum and a reversal may be imminent. Similarly, increasing volume during a price decline might indicate selling pressure and the potential for further downside. 🔹Confirmation of Patterns: Volume can serve to confirm or invalidate chart patterns such as triangles, head and shoulders, or double tops/bottoms. Higher volume during pattern formations enhances their reliability, while low volume can cast doubt on the significance of the pattern. 🔹Watch for High Volume: Unusual spikes in volume can indicate significant market events, such as earnings releases, news announcements, or institutional buying/selling. Abnormal volume levels can lead to increased volatility and potentially present trading opportunities. 🔹Relative Volume: Comparing current volume to historical average volume helps assess the significance of current trading activity. Higher volume relative to the average may imply increased interest, while lower volume might suggest a lack of conviction or reduced market participation.
    • I don't know but it looks like a really awesome service Because I have come across all sorts of mixers in my work  
  • Create New...