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EURUSD Retrace rally then big drop

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well, apparently the consensus is for another year of dollar strength

One thing you can be sure of is that beginning of year forecasts for where the year will end or what will happen during the year will not be accurate...  Still if we take it as an indicator of the near term then that would support my thesis for the next quarter at least...

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5 hours ago, Mercury said:

I have not been comfortable with the price action on EURUSD, well all USD pairs and DX itself, in terms of the case for a USD bear market.  It started well but has recently broken down and now looks like a contender for another leg up (on DX, down on EURUSD).  Long term I still see EURUSD rallying but short to medium term I see some bearishness with 2 scenarios:

  1. A bearish retrace in A-B-C form to retest the first weekly channel line (grey) that was broken back in early Dec 2019.
  2. Another leg down on this slow grinding bear phase to close a gap left from the previous breakout and rally (back in April 2017).

Short term the market ha just posted a hit and rebound back down off the Fib 50%.  The wave B (brown) could manifest a bit higher yet and a breakout of the upper weekly line no.2 and the next horizontal resistance (higher high than 31 Dec 2019) would negate these scenarios and throw the long term rally back into sharp relief.

Net I am tactically Short and waiting to see how price action develops.  I see this playing out across many USD pairs.

EURUSD-Weekly_160120.thumb.png.af245922a003cf21628143a0f4471b2c.pngEURUSD-Daily_160120.thumb.png.7105b8366f1cf3f729585e9cdb2fbec6.pngEURUSD-1-hour_160120.thumb.png.1308400ebd0f8748e039459eec259d86.png

The gap you've highlighted is also something I am keeping an eye on. Although it could go as low as 1.05 which you've also marked out.

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21 hours ago, dmedin said:

Well, apparently the consensus is for another year of dollar strength

Great piece on RealVision today with an economist called David Rosenberg, who has recently started up his own firm (aged 59).  One thing he states, which is a belief I hold, is that economists who wok for large firms cannot go out on a limb as this is a career threat so they hug the consensus.  In other words the consensus is self-fulfilling and therefore will also hug the trend and never spot the major turns.  For that you need something else...

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EURUSD is breaking lower.  We could see a bit of a bearish move to punch through near term support.  If price gets past circa 11,050 then I would expect a test of 11,000.  I think 10,950 is the key test.  If price finds support here the bullish scenario could be on but a firm break and we can expect a test of the lower channel line around the 10,800 mark probably.

I see similar set ups on GBPUSD where there is a gap to be closed just below current price action in the short term.

EURUSD-4-hours_200120.thumb.png.7f66d64b046268e20788a8638ff1d30b.pngGBPUSD-1-hour_200120.thumb.png.61e1765fb1f0e12a30c686fd9079c258.png

 

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2 hours ago, Mercury said:

EURUSD is breaking lower.  We could see a bit of a bearish move to punch through near term support.  If price gets past circa 11,050 then I would expect a test of 11,000.  I think 10,950 is the key test.  If price finds support here the bullish scenario could be on but a firm break and we can expect a test of the lower channel line around the 10,800 mark probably.

I see similar set ups on GBPUSD where there is a gap to be closed just below current price action in the short term.

EURUSD-4-hours_200120.thumb.png.7f66d64b046268e20788a8638ff1d30b.pngGBPUSD-1-hour_200120.thumb.png.61e1765fb1f0e12a30c686fd9079c258.png

 

Mahmoud is seeing the bear as well for EURUSD: 

Looking at the daily chart, we notice on Friday EUR/USD tumbled to a lower trading zone 1.1059 – 1.1108 then closed below the 50-Day average providing two bearish signals.


A close below the low end of the zone could lead more buyers to exit their trades. This paves the way for sellers to take charge and press EURUSD towards 1.0951. Yet, the weekly support levels and area marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched closely, as some traders could exit/join the market nearby these points.

On the other hand, any failure in closing below the low end of the zone may reverse the pair’s course. This could rally EURUSD towards the high end of the zone. Further close above 1.1118 might encourage buyers to repeat last week’s scenario and push towards 1.1175. That said, the weekly resistance level underscored on the chart would be worth monitoring.

image.png

EUR/USD Bearish Signals on the Radar – Euro vs USD Price Forecast

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

@CharlotteIG I don't get all the numbered sections on the white space on that chart ... confused?

You're right, I've just change the content. I was using a clip from further down. It should be amended now. 

 

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EURUSD has validated the H&S pattern and dipped rather consistently, more pips to follow, but first a small retracement lurks for the first day of the week. 

EURUSD 27-31 January

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On ‎27‎/‎09‎/‎2019 at 06:44, elle said:

getting closer , still falling

Capture eu.PNG

 

Capture eu.PNG

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Testing times for EUR/USD...we're at the 110 level again. If it breaks below 10920-35 will be the next stop

image.thumb.png.5817cbeb4b5a9e98b2e0a90da145225e.png

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Agree @Level_Trader but I see circa 10,950 as a key support zone, which if broken should see a test of the 1 Oct 2019 low, which if tested I think it will not hold and then we are into lower low territory.  From a trading perspective I prefer GBPUSD as there are ore points on offer, potentially.

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On 06/02/2020 at 11:20, Mercury said:

which if broken should see a test of the 1 Oct 2019 low,

Relentless selling pressure on EUR/USD.  The 1st October low from last year is fast approaching... 

image.png.f7f1995576c40ba09bc1fd0655224fd5.png

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On ‎21‎/‎08‎/‎2019 at 21:01, elle said:

EURUSD  still on course .................

Capture eu.PNG

ever so slowly ...........................

Capture eu.PNG

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8 hours ago, elle said:

ever so slowly ...........................

Capture eu.PNG

Price just hit the Oct '19 low ( trying to bounce )   - nothing below now to that GAP 

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Hey guys, 

I understand this is more of a TA stream but Jeremy Naylor produced a piece with DailyFX about having exposure to EURUSD with options: 

We have help and example of Options trade set up around possible EUR/USD volatility: 

You can see how to get exposure but with options. 

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On ‎12‎/‎02‎/‎2020 at 17:26, elle said:

Price just hit the Oct '19 low ( trying to bounce )   - nothing below now to that GAP 

getting really interesting

Capture eu.PNG

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I think you're draining the dregs from the bottom of the barrel if you short now, right?

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RSI isn't oversold so is there room for more?

EUR_USD_20200218_12_07.thumb.png.170cdac89d1b7acdd428a358c634e935.png

 

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2 hours ago, dmedin said:

think you're draining the dregs from the bottom of the barrel if you short now, right?

I quite agree.  Even taking a Short on the turn wasn't that compelling, offering only a few 100 points for a high error risk.  For me this is about tracking for a trend change turn.  Given the length of time and low volatility this trend has exhibited I would not be surprised to see it eek out further whipsaw and lateral movement before the turn occurs and if this coincides with a bear phase for GBPUSD, which is my current bias, then EURGBP may yet be the way to go shorter term for FX traders.  However overall I prefer the look of USDCAD for a long term bear market if and when Oil really gets going.

EURUSD-Weekly_180220.thumb.png.9219da499c5504c73b6f930896cf9f97.png

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If we get a bounce off here the next stop is down there 😱

Selection_002.thumb.jpg.0f4b24ae0c1190fc3aad9152272998a4.jpg

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49 minutes ago, dmedin said:

If we get a bounce off here the next stop is down there

Doubt we will see a complete capitulation at this stage, possible of course but there is a lot of support to bust through.  My lead scenario is for a 3-4 retrace about now followed by a final wave 5 to a major turning point, this is in line with my USD DX analysis too.

EURUSD-Daily_200220.thumb.png.2da82b171302c2fbf6870c4b71557069.png

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