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'Satoshi' selling $8bn of BTC


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It's the tweets that I find the most illuminating rather than the article, the talk, the guy himself (I mean who cares right?).  The tweets are indicative of a a kind of cultism seemingly common among devotes of the high priest Bitcoin and the many other lesser priests and priestesses.  Rain down fire and brimstone on all ye who decry the great crypto revolution.  In fact the tweeter described crypto as a "insurgent or subversive movement", not exactly the kind of talk you'd expect from something seeking to be a credible replacement for my grans cash.  Claiming the FT are trolls is laughable, regardless of your opinion of MSM.  It all smacks of a deep-seated sense of insecurity that is consistent among the frat house of crypto devotees, all dreaming of becoming true billionaires (in USD notably...).  This is consistent with the first internet bubble, which took over 10 years to mature before it all fell apart.  Then another almost 20 years of the current tech bubble (will it end the same way...?).  Most of the people who were dreaming of becoming internet millionaires (billionaires weren't yet really a thing then, that's inflation for you - and the widening gulf between super rich and everyone else) wound up with nothing.  The few who did sold out before the end.  I am betting it will be the same again because human nature is always human nature and while history may not actually repeat, the human behaviours do.

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"Stablecoins"!  Interesting that.  It is often the case that the early adopters get killed and a new paradigm emerges from the wreckage.  This happened in the first internet bubble when the self appointed disruptors declared they would end big business by making everything free on the internet, while becoming millionaires.  They were not able to answer the obvious contradiction and most of them lost everything as big business took over.  The likes of Google and Amazon are now big business.  They run their operations as a normal listed company must.  They obey the rules (except for paying taxes, which will be addressed in due course as governments catch up).  They are mainstream now, that is the price of success and the payoff of course.  The obvious flaw in the crypto devotees argument is the constant citing of crypto valuation possibilities in USD (i.e. FIAT currency).  Yes in order to actually make money on this they have to sell and convert to the very thing they are claiming to be replacing.  In order to ascribe value to their crypto holding they have to refer to USD, because that is how it works.

The point I have been making consistently on this topic, that seems to drive the crypto devotees mental, is that I believe the crypto story will end the same way as the internet bubble.  The technology is very interesting, no question.  Governments and accountancy institutions (including my own) are studying it with a view to leveraging in into the mainstream (principally to address lack of visibility/accountability in accounting and to bring in paperless currency, FIAT currency - Stablecoin?).  To this end government will legislate private crypto out of existence and mainstream tech players will step in o pick up the pieces (enter Facebook...  I wonder when Google and Amazon will kick in...).  The providers of technology will do well as they will start to work for the governments of the world (probably via these big tech giants); it has already started.  The current crop of cryptos, as the article suggests, will become valueless.

Doubtless there is still a trading ride for those brave enough to take it on and I see upside in the crypto mania to come before the end.  For me the end of crypto will be a signal for the end of the wider bull frenzy but are we there yet?  Maybe but probably not yet.  I could see Bitcoin regaining its past highs, maybe making some ATH above or perhaps a double top before the players cash again and pull the rug out from under the frenzy buyers (again!).  That is a purely technical analysis perspective; obviously my fundamentals perspective is the exact opposite (hence I call this a mania, and the hype is exactly the same as that I experienced in 2000 - buyer beware!)

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23 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

Bubbles and mania's should be embraced by investors and traders. They present a fantastic opportunity to maximise profit potential. 

 

 

Only to an extent.

Most people should only be actively investing (including SB/CFD) a small proportion of their savings.  Otherwise extreme highs and lows are very bad.

If they are so bad that the economy crashes, you will have social issues that damage your quality of life even if you are a Mr Moneybags.

We should always hope for a society that is plentiful for all and stable.

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