Andrew's Pitchfork Trading Strategy

[dmedin]

6 hours ago, DSchenk said:

Backtesting this is fascinating though . Only small deviations in parameters can lead to a huge difference in the end result. Like changing the entry level by a single point - couple of 100% gain lost.
Maybe that's why 95% lose in trading, the margin of error is astonishing. Half a point entered too late or too early, profits halfed. Half a point exited too early or too late, profits gone. Stop loss set half a point too far or too tight, huge losses.

 

This is a very profound finding.  You might as well have said, 'The only difference between winning and losing is when the price goes in your favour and when it doesn't.'

The circular logic and pathetic fallacy of technical trading is utterly astounding.

Edited October 22, 2019 by dmedin

[nit2wynit]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

Now let me ask you this: did you factor in the amount of time and effort required to earn £11.18?

Because time and effort are the things that never get considered in the risk/reward **** that these snakes in suits drone on about.

So you spend all afternoon charting and gambling with your money, and you come out of it with a twenty quid profit.  But you could have got a job somewhere and earned £20 per hour.  Less risk and more reward.

How fking stupid is that?

Erm................................................................

You're not paying attention, bud.

I literally placed those to show an example.  I did them there and then.............................While typing I brought up the FTSE and placed a trade as if I only had £250.  It dropped as I expected it to.  then I placed another and made another £7 with only £250 margin.

I make money all the time on the Demo.  I play as if it's REAL money with a REAL Stop with REAL Risk.  I'm up £750 in 5 days using 1k.

Chill.  Everything you've learned so far is Wrong!.  You're not playing it right.

Go to the demo.  Make 10 trades using 1:1 PL ratio.  Then come back.



EDIT: But lets keep the negativity to Is SBFF thread.

Edited October 23, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

Oh, use the 1M or 5m to place it.  Give it 5 mins.  You're in you're out.  Your stop will be the same as your Limit.

5-10 Trades at Market Open.  Either UK or US.  Tomorrow after 2.30 I will show you either 5 wins or 5 losses consecutively using 1k Margin.  

Do the same and come back with fresh info.  You, my friend, are not in the right frame of mind to be playing this Game!

[DSchenk]

9 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

Now let me ask you this: did you factor in the amount of time and effort required to earn £11.18?

Because time and effort are the things that never get considered in the risk/reward **** that these snakes in suits drone on about.

So you spend all afternoon charting and gambling with your money, and you come out of it with a twenty quid profit.  But you could have got a job somewhere and earned £20 per hour.  Less risk and more reward.

How fking stupid is that?

That's why I always saying don't focus on the £ values - they don't mean anything.

If @nit2wynit would've said he earned 11 points or 1% or something, then this would be of much more relevance. Because the £11.18 are just a reflection of how much he puts in, in the first place. But the 11 points instead of £11.18 can also be £111.80 or £1180 or £11,800, depending how big his account size is.

Try doing that in a job, where your £ per hour is fixed and not a function of your capital.

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, DSchenk said:

Because the £11.18 are just a reflection of how much he puts in, in the first place. But the 11 points instead of £11.18 can also be £111.80 or £1180 or £11,800, depending how big his account size is.

Exactly.  And that's why only people who are already rich can make any significant sums of money in the short run.

Us 'punters' have only one choice: to put by relatively small amounts, 'buy and hold' and hope for a relatively modest return by the time we retire.

[nit2wynit]

2 hours ago, DSchenk said:

If @nit2wynit would've said he earned 11 points or 1% or something, then this would be of much more relevance. Because the £11.18 are just a reflection of how much he puts in, in the first place. But the 11 points instead of £11.18 can also be £111.80 or £1180 or £11,800, depending how big his account size is.

Try doing that in a job, where your £ per hour is fixed and not a function of your capital.

I didn't think i had to explain that :O

 

[nit2wynit]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

3 hours ago, DSchenk said:

Because the £11.18 are just a reflection of how much he puts in, in the first place. But the 11 points instead of £11.18 can also be £111.80 or £1180 or £11,800, depending how big his account size is.

Exactly.  And that's why only people who are already rich can make any significant sums of money in the short run.

Us 'punters' have only one choice: to put by relatively small amounts, 'buy and hold' and hope for a relatively modest return by the time we retire.

lol....why are you both quoting this?

[DSchenk]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Exactly.  And that's why only people who are already rich can make any significant sums of money in the short run.

You've got the wrong view on things again, I'm afraid.

All you need is capital to trade. It doesn't need to be your own. Put £20k on a credit card, trade it and make £25k out of it and pay the £20k back within the same month. No credit charges and you just made £5k. Do that 4 times and you have your £20k starting capital

If you had a winning strategy, you would find a way to raise that capital quicker than you think. In fact people would start throwing more money at you as you can manage

[DSchenk]

@nit2wynit and myself just playing with small capital right now, because we don't have a winning strategy yet.

As soon as I'm having a winning strategy and what I mean by that is trading the strategy in live environment consistently over 3 months with real capital, although small amounts, I'm scaling the equity in my account up drastically.

[DSchenk]

Anyway, this thread has drifted far off   

Who's in cracking the Andrew Pitchford trading strategy or any other strategy?

[nit2wynit]

5 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

Anyway, this thread has drifted far off   

Who's in cracking the Andrew Pitchford trading strategy or any other strategy?

I'm in lol....and that's how we got sidetracked.

I was basically asking you how long you wanted to be in a trade, and how that trade might oscillate in a given Time Frame that would allow you to Maximise Profit before Retracement or Reversal.

In my own example I've stated I wouldn't be willing to see my profit go up 10 points and watch it come back down 5 points.  So, I'm trying to see where your model breaks down.

[dmedin]

17 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

Put £20k on a credit card, trade it and make £25k out of it and pay the £20k back within the same month. No credit charges and you just made £5k. Do that 4 times and you have your £20k starting capital

Well, I wish you the best of luck and I hope 'Andrew's pitchfork' helps you make lots of money.

[nit2wynit]

Here's an Interesting point with regard to SB and Buying Shares.

I bought $1000 worth of Pinterest @ $24.  At it's peak I was up 50%, so $1500, but couldn't Sell.

If i was Spread Betting with the £1000 Margin and a £100 Stop, at it's peak I'd be up nearly £2,500

Edited October 23, 2019 by nit2wynit

[DSchenk]

11 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I was basically asking you how long you wanted to be in a trade, and how that trade might oscillate in a given Time Frame that would allow you to Maximise Profit before Retracement or Reversal.

So the current model doesn't have a concept of retracements or reversals.

The trade will only be exited in one of 3 events:

- Target Profit LvL hit

- End of day cut-off 21.55

- Hypothetically a stop loss, although backtesting has resulted that any stop loss level would have a negative effect on the overall performance. The chances seems higher that the trend ultimately reverses and then at the end of the day is at a better level than the stop level would've been.

 

Yesterday I trialled working in a model of retracements into the model, but without huge success. Best option I could find for FTSE was, if 15 points in profit, set stop loss at 10 points. The impact of this is:

71% winning trades instead of 62%
1335% gain (over 100,000 5min units) instead of 1025%

 

One thing you can't really work into any trading model is "trader intuitivity". Like you are up 20 points in a trade, but your target is at 25 points. Somewhere else you see a nice trading opportunity, so you rather take the 20 points and enter the next trade, than waiting for the last 5 points til target (if it will ever reach it).

So I guess the model just needs to be a guideline rather than a strict set of rules

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

So I guess the model just needs to be a guideline rather than a strict set of rules

Yes, definitely.  

This is the point I've been trying to make.  Take a look at the last week of the FTSE when you actually Trade.  Use the 1M or the 5M and take note of how much it goes Up or Down before a retracement.  Note how much the retracement is worth.  However, if you're happy in the knowledge that it's gone up 10, come back 7, gone up 10 giving you 13pts then I suppose it works.  For me, I'd take the 1st Ten.  Certain Profit is better than Target Profit in my book.  However, with this said, if it's automated and you've got other things to do I suppose it makes sense to leave it and walk away.  Come back to see you've either Lost a Little or made a Profit.

70% win is great odds, so long as the Losses don't outweigh the Profit of course.  What is the Value of the 30% losses compared to the 70% Wins?

[DSchenk]

The gain to loss ratio would be 1.69.

So starting with a £2k account you would make £54k and lose £32k, finishing up £22k (after a year and a quarter approx)

 

5 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Use the 1M or the 5M and take note of how much it goes Up or Down before a retracement

That's also an interesting idea and thought about this before. Finding out the average length of the run, then the average length of the pullback, and so forth. Not too sure yet, how to codify and test this though.

[nit2wynit]

5 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

That's also an interesting idea and thought about this before. Finding out the average length of the run, then the average length of the pullback, and so forth. Not too sure yet, how to codify and test this though.

I think you'd just need to do this in Trends.  Movements and Patterns repeat or disappear throughout the year.  Personally I'd take it on the Week before and adjust each time to see if it's drifting.

[CharlotteIG]

Anyone new to the feed or new to Pitchfork trading strategy may find the following link useful. It was published by Michael Boutros from DailyFX. Check it out and see what you think. 

Introduction to Pitchfork Analysis & Median Line Trading

 

Let me know if any of you would find a video explaining Pitchfork trading strategy useful and I can speak with our TV team to arrange this. 

[phillo]

On ‎17‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 20:55, elle said:

you seem to set a good set of rules, but I have always found forks a little subjective, even personal. Different people see different ones. Here's mine

 

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, elle said:

 

 

Would you care to add any annotation or explanation to the chart?

[CharlotteIG]

Very happy to announce that we have a live video now on the Pitchforking strategy. We've got Eddie Tofpik, chief strategist at ADMISI as well as Marketing Director of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in the TV studio . We're really excited about this talk and hope you are too. 

If you miss it, it will be available on our 'IG TV on Demand' by 12pm today! 

[CharlotteIG]

26 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

Very happy to announce that we have a live video now on the Pitchforking strategy. We've got Eddie Tofpik, chief strategist at ADMISI as well as Marketing Director of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in the TV studio . We're really excited about this talk and hope you are too. 

If you miss it, it will be available on our 'IG TV on Demand' by 12pm today! 

Correction, it's up now.

Let me know what you think 😁

[dmedin]

7 hours ago, CharlotteIG said:

Correction, it's up now.

Let me know what you think 😁

 

Lost me when the 'Schiff pitchfork' stuff started ...