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How to trade the UK election


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On 18/11/2019 at 13:47, dmedin said:

GBP/USD - buy the dips!

EUR/GBP - sell the rallies!

 

:D

 

 

 

Well ...

 

That didn't work out so good.  OTOH, if the pound really falls then it means we are going to get a Marxist government - which I for one am looking forward to.

Edited by dmedin
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His party advocates a clean break from all EU institutions, a harder stance than that envisaged by Johnson, and is hoping to win seats from the opposition Labour Party that will allow it to put pressure on the Conservatives.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-farage/brexit-party-leader-farage-promises-to-continue-campaigning-idUKKBN1XW1FK

 

If England ends up with a Johnson-Farage revolution, that will be great for business and the pound ... no reason for such an enormous slide off the back of a small decline in flash PMI.

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The pound fell against the dollar on Tuesday after several polls suggested that the Conservative party’s general election lead had narrowed.

A Kantar poll released on Tuesday suggested the Tory lead had shrunk from 18 points to just 11, while an ICM poll from late on Monday indicated that the gap between Boris Johnson’s party and Labour had fallen from 10 to 7 points over the previous week.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-falls-as-conservative-party-lead-narrows-143043035.html

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Stormzy said it was important for voters to register by the end of Tuesday to vote.

 

“I will be registering to vote and I will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn,” Stormzy said.

“Boris Johnson is a sinister man with a long record of lying and policies that have absolutely no regard for the people that our government should be committed to helping and empowering.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-stormzy/stormzy-is-better-at-rap-than-politics-uks-gove-says-idUKKBN1Y00PO

😎

The pound is going to sink like a stone in water ...

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Need to be careful what we wish for, a big Conservative majority means people like Jacob Rees-Mogg continue to enrich themselves at the expense of Britain's working people, and the continuing breakdown in the fabric of society 😢

that's right and Chavez's Venezuela is a shining example of what Corbyn might achieve if only voters would give him a chance 🤔

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https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-icm/johnsons-conservatives-maintain-7-point-lead-over-labour-icm-poll-idUKKBN1Y61KA

 

BoJo needs to release a few more maniacs from the prisons and asylums to whip up the public against Labour.

On the other hand, if Labour wins and implements a tolerably Marxist regime we won't need to trade because money won't be so important.  One can dream!

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No wonder he has such bad press ... every single newspaper is against him, and the Conservatives have the support of all the billionaires and millionaires so pretty much enough money to advertise everywhere 24/7.  And they say American politics is bought and paid for 😮

Edited by dmedin
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On 22/11/2019 at 13:58, dmedin said:

 

 

Well ...

 

That didn't work out so good.  OTOH, if the pound really falls then it means we are going to get a Marxist government - which I for one am looking forward to.

Looking forward to another Holodomor and eating our pets then?

The issue with the BS peddled from our anti-semitic nationalistic social-democratic workers' party (hmmm, rings a bell, where have I seen that before) is that aside from the vitriol and hate they spew; nothing they promise is "free". There is no such thing as a free lunch. Someone is paying. Oh wait - we all are.

I recommend Thomas Sowell's Economic Facts and Fallacies as an example of the drag on society imposed by high taxation and high state spending (i.e. crappy Keynesian economics). The state is, has, and always will be in inefficient allocator of resources. Want an example? South Africa is a primary example. Hundreds of billions piled into state owned entities including the post-office, energy supplier, airline, railways, etc. The result? One of the most inefficient and poorly run, highly corrupt countries in the world.
By comparison, looking at the impact of privitising water in the UK, over £300bn has been re-invested into the infrastructure delivering one of the highest quality water supplies in the EU:  https://www.iwapublishing.com/news/impact-privatisation-sustainability-water-resources
Ofwat also indicates that since privitisation, the number of customers at risk of low water pressure has fallen by 99%. That's 99%!!!!!
More reading for you from the people who are better informed than you:
https://www.water.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Water-UK-Frontier-Productivity.pdf
https://www.water.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/191028_Nationalisation_Savings_NERA.pdf

BT's average installation time is 15 days, down from the 6 month average wait time when state owned.


By comparison - how well exactly did BL work out for the motor industry? Oh yes. Destroyed it. No one buys a second-rate half-built troglodyte mobile (wonder they were built at all with everyone on strike) when international competition provides better alternative. Result: British car industry - dead.

The simple fact of the matter is that there is not one example of nationalisation working out well for a population in any country in history. It benefits the few in power and the full impact takes ~7 years to make its way through the economy. Regarding tax cuts; JFK's tax cuts doubled US nominal tax receipts in 9 years ($93bn to $187bn) simply by reducing tax. Not surprising as the research indicates the Laffer curve peaks at 33.1% (so your 40% and 45% brackets are already a drain, before factoring in VAT and other taxes). Think about the amount lost by the moronic narrative peddled of "hUrR duRr riCh ToiRiEs hAtE uS" and the useless class division it causes - none of which is based on fact. Nor are the classes fixed - a study of US multi-millionaires found that of those families who were rich at the beginning of the 20th century, only 4% were still wealthy at the start of the 21st century. So in 100 years, 96% of American multi-millionaires were no longer so. A whole new breed of wealthy had risen up. Wealth is transient, it is created and destroyed, it is not fixed.

It's also surprising, as people will indicate they're struggling to save or pay their way or earn more money to afford a better life - yet it's made impossible by high taxes. Savings can only come from net income. So hiking taxes makes those who save poorer. Ironically it serves to entrench classism as those who are already rich not only have capital mobility, but no longer have to worry about price competition from someone earning enough to compete for scare resources with them any more.

Conversely privitisation has lead to higher living standards, lower poverty rates, and a wealthier population - not only in the UK but in every other state in the world it has been tried.
Anyway, /rant over/.

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For the stock traders out there, we've produced a podcast 'Stocks to watch around the election'. This is only 7 minutes long and runs through different sectors and specific stock that could be positively or negatively impacted around the election on Thursday. Even if you're not a stock trader it's worth a listen. 

You can find these podcasts on Spotify, Apple Podcast and Google Podcast by searching IG Trading the Market.  

 
 
 
Let me know what you think of it! 
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