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How to trade the UK election


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1 hour ago, ChrisRobUK said:

So hiking taxes makes those who save poorer

 

Not really a place for in-depth discussion, but a few points.

1) The proposal is to increase taxes on the wealthy.  The average wage in the UK is £30,000.  Quite far from wealthy

2) If you are talking about punishing savers, look at all the FREE MONEY the financial services sector has been given by the government, keeping interest rates low

3) 500,000 American families go bankrupt every year because of healthcare-related costs.  That's what happens when you privatize services that are not, and should not be treated as, commodities

4) The private sector isn't really all that efficient.  A lot of office jobs are, shall we say, inefficient.  But the management consultants and the politicians themselves who play the revolving door game are very well rewarded for their BS

5) Yes, there are a lot of academics who wrote free market polemics in the 20th century.  Typically because they themselves were rich or because they were paid to do so.  Had it not been for government investment, we wouldn't have the internet - but at least we'd have a battery of nasty, superficial books on the glories of free markets ('if only the markets were freer and less regulated, everybody would be better off' - said absolutely nobody after 2008).

I would recommend books of greater substance and thought to you but I don't know if you would appreciate that.

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40 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

 @dmedin thank you for your opinions. Did you have a quick listen on the podcast? Would love to hear your thoughts. 

Also @Mercury, let me know what you think. 

If you want any other analysis on FX or other markets leading up to the election let me know so I can speak with our analysts. 

I will listen this evening when I get home :)

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Agreed it's not the place for the debate, but you went there, so...

It doesn't matter where the mean wage is - it will still reduce the ability of those who want social mobility to achieve it, will still result in the state accruing more resource and power to itself to only mis-allocate it elsewhere. But then again I don't expect anyone who buys into the left's thinking to have the capability of understanding it. As the misattributed quote noted about our cousins across the pond, "The American Republic will endure until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

Your (and Labour's) definition of wealthy is intangible. Who is wealthy? Who qualifies as wealthy and at what scale? On a global scale you're in the wealthiest 0.5% of the population. In London a person on £50k is lower-middle-class.

You also fail to realise that the increase in earnings year-on-year is under a Tory led coalition. Not labour.

Interest rates are a function of supply and demand - of course pumping hundreds of billions into a system will oversupply and therefore reduce the cost of money (interest). Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of fiscal policy can explain that. The question really is; how did we get here? Could it be the GFC whose roots for the impact to Britain were laid under the new-labour of Blair et al? Yes. Further, an analysis of subsectors will highlight to you that it is tech who is responsible for the huge increase in market values. Most other sectors are ticking along without much fanfair.

I'm glad you opened up the box of privitised healthcare - The Netherlands and Australia are two prime examples to be brought to your attention. They function fundamentally as private-run entities. Patients pay a nominal fee to use their services and are required to take out health care insurance to plug the gap. The government only pays for those who are unable to - resulting in a far lower gross and per capita cost. The net effect? Both those systems far outperform the NHS. Is it any wonder then that most employment offers in the UK provide for some form of private medical care instead as a perk? I know the Brits like to get all touchy-feely over the NHS and start clutching pearls, but I guarantee you right now that if you reduced their tax burden by the equivalent amount, privitised the entire thing, and required them to purchase health care insurance or gap cover insurance instead, then there would be a vast increase in the quality within a few years. The one area I do agree with you - no one seems to be able to change. Everyone is so stuck in their ways about their precious NHS they are functionally unable to think.

The private sector is nevertheless more efficient that the public sector (in every capacity). I would also hazard to add that it is government regulation that is responsible for much of the drag on private sectors. How many D&I, health and safety, etc etc. staff do you need on your payroll to satisfy the looters in office? It's like rent controls. Every time on is instituted - rents go up. Who suffers? Renters. Who doesn't suffer? The moronic politicians.

Most economists who espoused free-market economics were not rich themselves, excepting perhaps in intellect - something sorely lacking from the Keynesian set. A prime example is what happened in Chile when the free-market guys were allowed to take the reigns, a country who is now the wealthiest on the continent and has the highest living standards in all of Latin America. Right up until recent times when protests were sparked due to the increase in transportation costs - ironically one of the few state set measures, by a government panel of 'experts'. Not to mention looking at the stunning collapses where ever socialism has been faithfully implemented.

The irony on your literary jibe evidently escapes you.

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It’s nearly time!

The General election is taking place tomorrow. If you're looking to trade over the election check out all general election articles we've written to help you with trade ideas, keep you informed and protecting yourself during volatility. These pieces include specific stocks that maybe affected as well as the FTSE and sterling pairs.

General election articles

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Jeremy Naylor will be doing two live shows about the election results - on Friday 13th at 6am and 7:30am (GMT). You can find them on the platform live or in the IGTV on Demand tab shortly after.  :) 

Check out our podcast, that I advertised earlier in this forum, on 'Stocks to watch around the general election'.

As always, the content is not advisory it's just for trade ideas. Let the community know what you're thinking of watching/ trading. 🐮🐻

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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I am wondering if it will be worth staying up all night, not to listen to people on TV droning on and on but to see if there's any volatility to trade on ... or if I should just get a proper night's sleep lol.

Imagine if it comes out closer to 7am, but we will all have to be awake at 4am just in case 🕓

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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I am wondering if it will be worth staying up all night, not to listen to people on TV droning on and on but to see if there's any volatility to trade on ... or if I should just get a proper night's sleep lol.

I stayed up for the referendum vote and kept a rough commentary going here on the forum. It was an absolute wild roller coaster from the disclosure of the first exit polls right through and remain/leave changed lead so many times through the night as the votes were counted. Never seen such wild swings on any chart before or since, you could smell the blood in the water and feel the agony the next day.

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@Mercury posted this in ‘What is the USD doing?’. Nice to see someone look at the impact outside the UK markets that we’ve been analysing.

On 10/12/2019 at 13:07, Mercury said:

Looking at a period of USD strength to complete a retrace.  As noted elsewhere I expect GBP and EUR to rotate lower for a while, the former until the election, the latter until support is hit, which may occur around the same time as the UK election as probably clarity on Brexit would lift the Euro as well as GBP.

My call is for a Tory majority, better than May had but not off the charts.  I have spoken to many Labour voters who are conflicted and the Ashworth thing bears out what I was hearing about how the Northern areas are feeling (see link below if you haven't already seen it - priceless, almost as good as Corbyn's Andrew Neil interview).  In London many remainers I have spoken to are likely to prefer to get on with Brexit rather than let the Marxist/IRA sympathiser into No. 10, which Ashworth also seems to agree with them on..., and a lot also do not want another referendum for democratic sanctity reasons (i.e. they are accepting the defeat).  It does rather seem that whenever BoJo makes a Gaff (and I can't believe he is the best the Brits have to offer) the Labour moderates find a way to give the Tories a leg up...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50726592

A Tory majority puts Brexit to bed, other than the exact trading and political relationship with the EU, which is not nothing but at least the toy throwing will be over.  The spending plans light a fire under GBP because interests rates will have to go up.  This takes up to, say, 1.38 at which point we consolidate and then we see if a breakout is staged or a reversal kicks in, which will have more to do with USD and global economics at that point than the UK.

DX-1-hour_101219.thumb.png.b90aa8bb825201f9310342f58491191c.png

 

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There seem to be three possible scenarios, in descending order of likelihood (based on polling over the last few weeks):

  • Conservative large majority: GBP neutral/small positive as this is already priced in with the move from the 1.20/22 lows
  • Conservative small majority: GBP small negative
  • Hung parliament: GBP large negative

My gut feeling is that the polls will be proved wrong again (as far as predicted seats go) and we will either have a small Con majority or a hung parliament. My money is therefore on a small short GBPUSD position as my election night "gamble".

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Seen a fairly substantial drop today so far, might just be a build-up for a long opportunity tonight.

GBP_USD_20191212_13_51.thumb.png.7e3b9bdbe7be11207098d71ac7d559fd.png

Don't forget that hedge funds were conducting their own private polling on the day of the Brexit referendum, no doubt they are doing the same today:

From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

Quote

Behind the scenes, a small group of people had a secret—and billions of dollars were at stake. Hedge funds aiming to win big from trades that day had hired YouGov and at least five other polling companies, including Farage's favorite pollster. Their services, on the day and in the days leading up to the vote, varied, but pollsters sold hedge funds critical, advance information, including data that would have been illegal for them to give the public.

So maybe this move is in response to private polling?

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Oh great, the party of BoJo the clown, Dominic 'psychopath' Raab, Jacob 'what an utter plonker' Rees-Mogg and Priti 'bring back hanging' Patel is going to get a big thumping victory.  Take us out of Europe, bring back empire and workhouses and make Britain great again.  Hurrah :D 

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