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Technical overview remains bullish, and retail traders’ short bias rises into heavy sell territory. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve Market trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Technical analysis Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Thursday 08 February 2024 07:46 Sector performance puts tech on top Most sectors finished yesterday's session in the green, with defensives generally at the bottom. On top were tech, consumer discretionary, and communication—the exact trio needed to power the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 higher to a record close, outperforming both Dow 30 and S&P 500. It was a record close for key large-cap equity indices, with added attention on the S&P 500 as it approaches 5,000. Light on data, heavy on Fed member speak There wasn’t too much impactful economic data out of the US: the trade deficit for December was not far off forecasts, consumer credit change for the same month plummeted to just $1.56 billion after the big and unexpected jump for November, potentially signifying a tested consumer in the next phase. Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.7%. But it was heavy on central bank member speak, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Barkin on policy "very supportive of being patient to get where we need to get to," Kugler "pleased with the disinflationary progress thus far" expecting it to continue but any stalling in that progress means holding "the target range steady at its current level for longer," and Kashkari on interest rates expecting only "two or three cuts" and that there are "compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward." Treasury yields finished the session only slightly higher, and so did real terms. Market pricing (CME's FedWatch) still anticipates the first rate cut in May after holding in March. More Fed member speak is on offer today, along with the 30-year auction after yesterday's decent 10-year results. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Its price eventually went beyond its previous 1st Resistance level, stopping out contrarian sell-after-reversals and favoring conformist buy-breakouts, even if the follow-through beyond it didn't reach its previous 2nd Resistance. The higher highs and record close have kept most of its key technical indicators bullish, and its ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) still in trending territory. In all, it remains a bullish technical overview, with added caution for conformist strategies only when buying on dips to key support levels. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq As for retail traders, they have upped their majority short bias to a heavy 67% from 63% yesterday morning, as fresher longs got enticed into closing out while shorts initiated. CoT speculators are an opposite heavy buy 65% according to last Friday’s report. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 7am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft results have highlighted the growing importance of AI integration. Source: Bloomberg Shares Amazon Meta Platforms Microsoft Apple Inc. Artificial intelligence Written by: Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 16:53 Key Takeaways: Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) have surpassed market expectations with their quarterly earnings and outlooks Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has posted its strongest revenue growth since 2022, thanks in part to the impressive performance of its Azure AI services, which continue to attract new customers. Apple Inc. (AAPL) has returned to revenue growth despite challenges in the Chinese market, while Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) faces concerns about the sustainability of its growth and the impact of price cuts on profit margins. Alphabet's enterprise cloud and workspace services have seen substantial adoption, but its ad revenue has not met expectations. The current US reporting season has seen recent earnings releases from some of the biggest names in technology, namely: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta and Microsoft. These companies make up six of the ‘magnificent seven’ tech shares, with the seventh (NVIDIA) still to report. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon results impress Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) have set a high bar with their quarterly earnings and outlooks surpassing market expectations. Meta has seen a substantial uplift in profitability, announcing its maiden dividend, a move that signals confidence in its long-term revenue streams. This comes on the heels of Meta incorporating advanced AI into its algorithms, enhancing ad targeting across its suite of social apps, which has led to increased ad impressions and a higher price per ad. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has also been a standout, posting its strongest revenue growth since 2022. The tech behemoth's success is partially attributed to the impressive performance of its Azure AI services, which continue to attract new customers. The enterprise business segments of these tech giants have been particularly robust, with corporate customers investing in cloud services, software platforms, and devices to enhance their operations. Microsoft and Amazon have benefited from their cloud offerings, with AWS experiencing a 13% growth in revenue and Microsoft's cloud business growing by 20%. Apple and Tesla economic cautions Despite a mixed global economic outlook, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has managed to return to revenue growth, although it has faced challenges in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has been a topic of intense debate, with concerns about the sustainability of its growth in the face of potential declines in electric vehicle demand and the impact of price cuts on profit margins. Alphabet Ad revenue under pressure Alphabet's enterprise cloud and workspace services have seen substantial adoption, although its ad revenue has not met expectations. Nonetheless, Alphabet's commitment to AI innovation remains steadfast, as evidenced by the development of its new AI model, "Gemini." AI integration helping drive revenue Similarly, to Microsoft’s’ success of its Azure AI services, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), through its subsidiaries Google Workspace and Google Cloud, and Amazon with its Amazon Web Services (AWS), have made significant strides by integrating AI-powered services, which have been instrumental in driving revenue. The ongoing AI revolution is reshaping the tech landscape, with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and NVIDIA at the forefront. Their strategic investments in AI have not only enhanced their product offerings but have also led to more efficient operations and new revenue opportunities. However, these companies may face more regulatory challenges regarding their AI and cloud partnerships. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Trading the trend: long USD/JPY USD/JPY is seeing a minor retracement lower which could be used to enter a long trade in the direction of this year’s uptrend. We would thus like to go long USD/JPY with a stop loss below ¥145.90 and an upside target at ¥152.00. Written by: Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 14:28 Previous Arabica coffee trading outcome In this week's "Trading the trend" video, Axel Rudolph reflects on his recent trades and talks about their current positions. He started by betting on the price of Arabica coffee to go up. He entered the trade when the price was around 186 and watched it climb to 194. However, things took a turn and the price went down, causing them to sell at his entry level. Current New York cotton futures trading progress Next, he moves on to his current trade in New York cotton futures. He entered at about 85.70 and are currently making a profit. To protect his gains, he raised the level at which he would sell if the price goes down, so he doesn't lose anything. He has set his sights on a target price of 90, which he sees as a strong resistance level based on previous market behavior. This week's trading opportunity For his trade this week, he plans to jump on the upward trend of the USD/JPY. He sees a temporary drop in the price as an opportunity to buy. He bases his decision on the difference in interest rates between the US and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan has a cautious approach, while the US is more optimistic. He believes the upward trend will continue in the upcoming days and weeks, particularly if the price breaks through recent highs between 148.80 and 18.90. With all of this in mind, he suggests buying USD/JPY at its current price, and setting a level at which he would sell if the price drops further. He also set an upside target at around 152, meaning he expects the price to go up to that level. By carefully managing his trades and considering market trends, he aims to make successful trades and achieve profits. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Overnight, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed following the fresh record levels seen on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 came within a whisker of 5000, though the Nikkei 225 managed a 2% gain. Soft Chinese data ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday kept sentiment in check overall. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, and maintained its stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. European equity futures are indicating a slightly higher open, taking their cue from a positive session on Wall Street. US jobless claims are the main event scheduled for today.

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These five FTSE 100 dividend shares could be some of the best to watch next month. They are currently the highest yielding on the index. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Dividend FTSE 100 Investment Stock market index Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Down 1.4% year-to-date, the FTSE 100 has once again started the year by underperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Of course, the index is famously viewed as a more conservative investment — filled with mature banks, oilers and miners which pay out dividends rather than focus on capital growth. For context, the FTSE 100 rose slightly in 2022 as interest rates rose sharply, while the Nasdaq fell into a bear market. Over the longer term, the US stocks have historically outperformed the UK (though past performance is not an indicator of future returns), but the best FTSE 100 dividend stocks are often included in portfolios for the relatively reliable income. Of course, many FTSE 100 companies deliver high dividend returns — though many are cyclical and the highest returns on offer may not be sustainable. It’s worth noting that popular dividend companies tend to attract significant investment in times of macroeconomic stress, which can become a problem as the economy improves and investors sell shares to seek more lucrative opportunities elsewhere. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England has once again kept the base rate at 5.25% — a rate it has kept since September 2023 — though now expects CPI inflation to fall to 2% by May. While it has signalled that rate cuts may be incoming, the Bank has also warned that it would need to see evidence that inflation was sticking to the target level first. For context, the Bank still expects that inflation will rise back above the target range later this year due to robust pay growth and the fading impact from lower energy prices. Governor Andrew Bailey has specifically noted that ‘we need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates.’ On the fiscal policy front, the government will issue the spring budget on 6 March. While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has tried to make clear the scope for tax cuts is limited — especially after the recent IMF intervention — the political reality is that this may be the last major fiscal policy in place before the General Election. Top FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch These shares are the highest yielding on the index as of 5 February 2024. They may not be the best investments and the dividends and capital itself are not guaranteed. Vodafone Phoenix Group British American Tobacco M&G St James's Place Vodafone Today’s Vodafone quarterly update received a mixed reaction from the markets —total organic revenue grew by 4.7%, a significant improvement on the 1.8% growth of a year ago. The company remains one of the largest telecoms companies in Europe, and the current strategy may be delivering. Global services revenue is up by 8.8% while the B2B division grew by 5% year-over-year. Further, the all-important German sales rose by 0.3% in the quarter. However, the company is actually losing customers in the region, with the revenue growth driven by price increases. The key risk could remain the circa £55 billion debt mountain, which remains multiples of Vodafone’s market capitalisation. However, the company remains confident in previous guidance for future underlying earnings — and with a price to equity ratio of just 2, it may be attractive to value investors. Dividend Yield: 11.2% Phoenix Group Phoenix Group's recent trading update saw the company deliver £1.5 billion of new business long-term cash generation in 2023, achieving its 2025 target much earlier than expected. CEO Andy Briggs remains ‘delighted that Phoenix Group has delivered another year of strong organic growth in 2023, with increased new business net fund flows supporting us… we have achieved our 2025 new business long-term cash target two years early, reflecting the focus and investment we have put into our growth strategy.’ For context, new business net fund inflows rose by circa 80% year-on-year to £7 billion, driven by improved performances at the Standard Life branded Pension & Savings and Retirement Solutions segments. Within pensions and savings, Phoenix’s workplace business saw net fund flows nearly double year-over-year to circa £4.5 billion. According to Briggs, this included ‘the transfer of one of the largest workplace schemes tendered in the UK market in recent years.’ Dividend Yield: 10.3% British American Tobacco British American Tobacco is due to report full-year results this week — but despite the high dividend, the company is once again bracing for poor numbers. Analysts consider that the company will deliver revenue growth of between just 3% and 5% due to difficulties in the US market. For context, the FTSE 100 tobacco company wrote off £25 billion of its US brand portfolio recently after acknowledging they have ‘no long-term future.’ Compounding the weak combustibles growth, the UK recently announced a ban on disposable vapes which could hit BATS’ long-term ambitions in non-combustible categories — though may also drive out cheaper brands, especially if similar bans are introduced elsewhere. Positively, the titan and competitor Philip Morris International have finally agreed an eight-year long resolution to long running patent disputes on their cigarette alternatives technology. Dividend Yield: 9.8% M&G M&G plans to generate operating capital amounting to £2.5 billion by the end of 2024 and had achieved more than 50% of this three-year target, 18 months in. Moreover, its shareholder Solvency II Coverage ratio remains at the top end of the target range at 199%, with no defaults in the first half of the year. In half-year results, M&G increased its interim dividend by 5% to 6.5p per share. For context, it saw positive net client inflows of £700 million — remaining positive into a third consecutive year. M&G also saw operating capital generation rise by 17% year-over-year to £505 million, driving adjusted operating profit 31% higher to £390 million. CEO Andrea Rossi enthused that the results ‘demonstrate the underlying strength of our business model, the resilience of our balance sheet… we have made progress against all three pillars of the strategy that we launched in March.’ Full-year results will be released in March. Dividend Yield: 9% St James’s Place Shares in St James's Place have nearly halved over the past year, with the wealth manager now reporting that it saw only £5.1 billion in net inflows in the 2023 calendar year — compared to £9.8 billion in 2022. However, it remains the largest wealth manager in the UK, with more than 900,000 clients and total funds under management now standing at a record £168.2 billion, up from £148.4 billion at the end of 2022. New CEO Mark FitzPatrick plans to launch an efficiency review into the business within the next few months — partially driven by its October announcement to radically overhaul its fee structure in response to pressure from the Financial Conduct Authority, including scrapping exit fees to clients withdrawing from pension and bond investments early. Dividend Yield: 8.2% This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

BoE's unexpected hawkish stance delays rate cut hopes, pressuring the FTSE amid revised lower unemployment rates and sustained inflation forecasts. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation Unemployment Technical analysis Bias DAX Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Tuesday 06 February 2024 06:08 Last week's Bank of England (BoE) meeting delivered a more hawkish-than-expected outcome, just as the FTSE was building towards another attempt to break higher. While the BoE kept rates on hold at 5.25% as expected and removed its tightening bias, several hawkish elements stood out. Two policymakers voted for another 25bp rate hike. The bank's latest inflation forecasts showed inflation above target during H2 2024 and 2025. The BoE reiterated that "monetary policy will need to remain restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target", dampening hopes of imminent rate cuts. The UK rates market, which did have a first BoE 25bp rate cut priced for June and a total of 100bp of rate cuts priced for 2024, responded by pushing back expectations of a first cut until August and now has only three rate cuts priced for 2024. To make matters worse, revised data overnight showed the UK's unemployment rate was at 3.9% in the three months to November, the lowest level since April last year and significantly below the initial print of 4.2%. Cooling in the labour market is necessary to relieve inflationary pressures, and to enable the BoE to cut rates. UK unemployment chart Source: BoE FTSE technical analysis For the past eight months, the FTSE has been encapsulated below horizontal resistance at 7750ish and above support at 7200. While the FTSE remains above the 200-day moving average at 7556, it remains positioned to set up another test of the horizontal and trendline resistance at 7730/60. If the FTSE can see a sustained break above the aforementioned resistance band, it would warrant moving from a neutral bias to a bullish bias, looking for a test of the April 7936 high, with the scope to the 8047 high. Aware that while the FTSE remains below resistance at 7750ish, more range trading is likely. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView DAX technical analysis In recent updates, we noted that due to the nature of the three-wave nature decline from the early Jan 17,123 high to the mid-Jan 16,464 low, it was likely a correction, and that the DAX should push to new highs in the 17,200/400 area. While the DAX has yet to print a fresh cycle high, we wouldn’t be giving up on it just yet. Neither would we be chasing the market higher, as we remain of the view a 5-10% pullback is not too far away. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView Source: Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 6 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Embark on a captivating journey with us in the next installment of our Sentiment Study series, as we delve into the intriguing worlds of the FTSE 100 and the DAX 40—also known as the Germany 40 in IG's trading realm. Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 01:57 Today, we're peeling back the layers of market sentiment to reveal a fascinating contrast: a prevailing inclination towards bullish positions among IG's clients in one index, juxtaposed with a strategic dance of range-trading in the other. As we navigate through this tale of two indices, we'll uncover the underlying currents that drive investor behavior and market dynamics. Join us as we dissect the reasons behind the steadfast confidence in one market and the cautious maneuvering in another, offering you a richer understanding and sharper insights to refine your trading strategy. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The US dollar eases after strong payroll and ISM services PMI data suggest economic resilience, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. Source: Bloomberg Forex Interest Interest rates Interest rate Economy United States dollar Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 07:57 Economic data and Fed speakers to provides tailwind for the dollar The dollar is slightly softer at the time of writing, but is coming off a massive two-day advance after Friday’s non-farm payroll report revealed a significant beat to the upside. The labour market not only looks robust but appears to be in the ascendancy, after the December figure received a massive revision higher. Further evidence of a resilient economy, despite restrictive monetary policy, appeared via the ISM services PMI readings below. The headline reading beat the forecast of 52 as well as the prior 50.5, continuing the expansion in the services sector for 13 straight months now. Source: DailyFX Some of the more interesting stats appear within the sub-sections of the report like ‘new orders’, ‘prices’ and ‘imports’ which all saw notable improvements. New orders is often used as a proxy for future economic conditions; the increase in prices suggests increased costs of shipping in the Red Sea is being passed down to the consumer. Imports posted the largest month-on-month percentage change of all the categories, and suggests consumption and spending are strong. In addition, a lesser observed report called the Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) revealed that credit providers are less reluctant to extend credit (greater supply) while demand for credit made marginal progress. The report was a main focus around the time of the regional banking instability and has come back onto the radar again after New York Community Bancorp had to cut its dividend – sending other regional bank shares lower with it. Economic strength defies interest rate pressures, influencing Fed decisions and dollar dynamics The above data is not consistent with an economy that ought to be constrained by elevated interest rates – suggesting that the start of rate cuts may need to be pushed back even further. As such, US yields and the dollar have risen in recent sessions.The dollar basket (DXY) is viewed as a benchmark of broader dollar performance and witnessed massive gains on Friday, which continued into Monday. Today however, prices have eased back a tad, ahead of the 104.70 level which has acted as support in September and November 2023. The Fed’s very own Neel Kashkari seemed surprised at the US economy’s strength, suggesting that the current level of interest rates is not having as much of an impact as would typically be the case if the neutral rate hadn’t been shifted higher. The neutral rate is a theoretical rate that is neither restrictive of supportive to the economy and is said to be higher in the post-Covid period. Price action remains above the 200-day simple moving average and could continue with the help of additional Fed speakers who are lined up today to provide their thoughts on monetary policy and interest rates. Further talk about the impressive economic data and the need to move cautiously before deciding to cut rates could add to the recent USD advance. US dollar basket (DXY) daily chart This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Gold prices are in the green after two days of big falls; last week’s news of US labor market strength continues to weigh. However, falls have been more limited than other assets. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities Gold Gold as an investment Federal Reserve Investment IG Analyst Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 05:21 Gold prices have managed some modest gains on Tuesday, after a punishing few sessions, courtesy of the United States’ labor market and the Federal Reserve. Last week’s news of astonishing job creation has seen interest-rate-cut bets taken off for March, although a May move remains very much in play. This will hugely benefit the dollar. The prospect of US borrowing costs remaining higher for longer has taken a clear, obvious toll on gold - in a double whammy for the metal. It suffers once by virtue of being non-yielding; and then again thanks to the fact that so many gold products are priced in US dollars, so more expensive for everyone trying to pay for them with other currencies. It’s notable, however, that gold has suffered rather less from last week’s play than some other assets (such as sterling). The current broad market scene still offers perceived haven assets like the precious metal plenty of support. After all investors are fretting the prospect of a tougher battle against inflation and a broad spectrum of geopolitical risk from Gaza, the Red Sea, Ukraine, the South China Sea and so on. China’s economic underperformance is also simmering away. Given all of that, it’s perhaps not too surprising that prices have remained above the important $2000/ounce level, even as the dollar’s strength has brought that level rather closer to the market.We’re heading into a rather quieter period of scheduled economic data, which will leave gold prices in thrall to general market risk appetite and, in all likelihood, whatever coming individual Fed speakers have for the market. Gold prices technical analysis Prices are once again testing the bottom of their wide, dominant uptrend channel from mid-November, an extension of the gains made since early October’s lows. The tell-tale higher highs and higher lows of a ‘pennant’ formation are also visible on the daily chart. As a continuation pattern this ought perhaps to indicate that prices will begin to rise again once it plays out, as they did before, but there’s obviously no guarantee they will. For now, the uptrend channel offers support at $2030.25 level, with 17 January’s intraday low of 1972.88 lying in wait should that give way. A conclusive break of the uptrend, however, might mean a deeper retracement. Near-term resistance is at 2 February’s top of $2056.96 ahead of trendline resistance at $2063.84. IG’s own sentiment data on gold is mixed, but, with 64% of traders coming to the metal from the bullish side, enough to suggest that the market is looking for modest gains at current levels. Gold price daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Overnight, stocks in Asia were mostly positive following a decline in global yields and additional support efforts from China. However, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite saw early momentum fade, as doubts persisted over the abilities of the authorities to power a sustainable rally. FOMC member Mester said that the Fed could lower interest rates later this year if the economy performs as expected. She also mentioned that any rate cuts would likely be implemented gradually, without providing a specific timeline. The line from the ECB continues to be more hawkish, with German member Schnabel saying that a too-hasty move to cut rates could lead to a revival in inflation. Uber, Disney and PayPal earnings are expected today, while just EIA crude oil inventories are on the calendar for economic data.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) joined in the cautious line from central banks, pushing back against expectations of imminent rate cuts. While policy was left unchanged, the RBA did note that inflation was easing. However, it also lowered its near-term outlook for growth due to a weaker consumer spending forecast. Chinese markets enjoyed a solid session, which saw the Hang Seng gain 3.8%, the Shanghai composite rise 2.7% and the Shenzhen composite gain a remarkable 6.3%. Chinese regulators said that they would guide institutional investors to raise stock investments, and also encourage listed companies to raise their level of share buybacks, moves which follow on from the decision to shore up the market with $17 billion last week. A quieter day on the economic front lies ahead, though earnings from Ford will be of interest.

The Magnificent Seven – Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla – individually soared between around 50% and 240% in 2023. But are they still a buy? Should you cherry pick, or are they looking risky? Written by: Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 14:34 The outlook of the Magnificent Seven in 2024 In 2023, a group of seven influential companies, known as the Magnificent Seven, had a big impact on the market. These companies include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and NVIDIA. Now, after their earnings reports, investors are wondering if these companies are still a good investment. Amazon Let's start with Amazon. Their shares went up after a strong performance in the December quarter. They surpassed revenue expectations, especially in online spending during the important holiday season. Alphabet On the other hand, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, disappointed investors with lower sales than expected in holiday season advertising. They also announced that they would be spending more on AI infrastructure, which raised concerns about costs. Microsoft Microsoft did better than expected in terms of profit and revenue. However, investors started to question whether the money they were putting into AI would pay off in the long run. Despite that, Microsoft's new AI features have been attracting customers to their Azure cloud services. Meta Meanwhile, Facebook reached a record high in its stock price and is now valued at around $1.1 trillion. Their revenue also increased by 25% due to strong advertising and device sales. Apple Apple had some challenges in China as their sales in the country fell short of estimates. This disappointment caused a decline in Apple's stock price. They also faced tough competition in China as they released their Vision Pro. Tesla Lastly, Tesla had a major setback. Their shares dropped to the lowest point in eight months, leading to a loss of about $80 billion in market value. This drop came after Elon Musk warned of slower growth in 2024. In conclusion Given these circumstances, investors might choose to take their profits and diversify their investments. However, some argue that these companies have become safe bets because of their large size, making them less likely to fail. Ultimately, the decision to buy, hold, or sell stocks from these companies depends on each individual's perspective and investment strategy. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

While oil prices have been steadier, BP is expected to report a weaker performance at its upcoming quarterly results. Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities BP Price Petroleum Investment Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 13:05 BP earnings – what to expect? BP's underlying adjusted net income for the fourth quarter (Q4) is expected to decrease to $3 billion, according to consensus estimates. The company′s adjusted cashflow is projected to be around $6 billion. The key drivers of performance in the Q4 include relatively stable oil and gas prices, as well as softer global refining margins. Gas trading may continue to be weak due to low volatility in the market. In terms of financial decisions, BP is likely to maintain buybacks at $1.5 billion in the Q1. The dividend could see a small increase after a 10% raise in the first half of 2023, bringing it to 7.27 cents. BP's balance sheet is expected to show net debt in the range of $22 billion, with a leverage ratio of 20% based on IAS-17 accounting standards. High upstream production to aid performance The company's resilience is particularly noteworthy, as recent operations suggest that BP is poised to achieve its highest upstream production in the Q4, with over 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This robust production level is a testament to BP's robust operational capabilities and strategic positioning in the face of a broadly stable commodity-price environment. While full inventories and a flat market structure have indicated a potential for underwhelming gas-trading gains, it's important for traders to consider the broader context. Low volatility, although presenting challenges in trading, can also offer a stable ground for strategic decision-making and long-term investments. However, the potential unknown swing factor in this equation is oil trading, which could significantly impact BP's financial performance depending on market movements and company trading strategies. On the downstream front, BP is confronted with a sharply lower refining margin and availability, which contrasts with the previous quarter where these factors provided a substantial offset for earnings weaknesses. This shift underscores the importance of diversification within a company's portfolio—a lesson for traders who similarly seek to balance their investments to mitigate risks. New CEO on the cards As for leadership, the market is anticipating the conclusion of BP's CEO search. The likelihood of interim CEO Murray Auchincloss being appointed as the permanent CEO represents continuity and stability for the company. Auchincloss, already familiar with BP's operations and strategy, is expected to maintain the current course rather than introducing radical changes. For traders, the potential appointment of Auchincloss should be seen as a signal of steady leadership, which could translate into continued resilience and reliability in BP's performance. This is an essential factor to consider when evaluating BP's stock for one's portfolio. Analyst ratings for BP Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for BP with 6 strong buy, 10 buy, 6 hold and 1 sell – and a mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 602.71 pence for the share, roughly 33% higher than the current price (as of 5 February 2024). Source: Refinitiv Technical outlook on the BP share price BP’s share price, which recovered from its January 15-month low at 441.05 pence low, only managed to rise to last week’s high at 471.90p before resuming its descent towards the key long-term 455.00p to 441.05p support zone. BP Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView The decline in the BP share price from its October 2023 peak at 562.3p remains firmly entrenched and will continue to do so as long as no bullish reversal takes it above its early January high at 481.40p. BP Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView A drop through the 441.05p January low would open the way for the February 2022 high and the September 2022 low at 421.10p to 419.15p to be reached. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Stronger US dollar sinks gold, WTI and silver prices Friday’s impressive US jobs report gave the dollar a big lift, while putting fresh pressure on commodity prices. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 12:43 Gold goes into reverse Friday’s strong payroll report bolstered the dollar and hit gold, though it managed to hold its ground above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). However, it is a different story this morning. The price has fallen sharply in early trading and is now back below the 50-day SMA. It is testing previously-broken trendline resistance from the late December high. If this holds, then buyers will need to push the price on above $2060 to signal a renewed bullish outlook. Conversely, further declines below the mid-January low at $2000 will open the way to the 100-day SMA, and then to the early December low around $1975. Source: ProRealTime WTI pullback reaches trendline support Friday’s sharp losses built on the existing weakness in oil prices, and took WTI back below the 50-day SMA. This has reversed almost all of the bounce seen since mid-January, and fresh losses appear to beckon. This then takes the price on towards $70.45, an area of support during the first half of January. Below this lies the lows of December around $68.40. Buyers will need a recovery above $74 to suggest that a low has formed for now. One hope for a recovery remains in the form of potential trendline support from the December low. Source: ProRealTime Silver price slump intensifies Silver prices suffered a reverse on Friday, and have taken further losses this morning, like gold. Having rallied from their mid-January low, the price hit resistance around $23.25 as they did earlier in January. A turn lower has taken the price back below trendline resistance from early December, and now a move to the $22 low of January. Notably, this was also the low from mid-November, before the price began its sharp ascent into the December high. A close below these lows could see further losses towards October’s bottom around $20.80. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 side-lined while S&P 500 trades in record highs Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 as major company earnings by the ‘magnificent seven’ are out of the way. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 12:30 FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined The FTSE 100 is stuck in its 7,690 to 7,600 sideways trading range, the break out of which may well determine the next minor trend. A fall through last week’s 7,600 low would lead to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,592 being eyed, below which meanders the 200-day SMA at 7,550. Minor resistance can be found at last Tuesday’s 7,641 low above which lies last week’s high at 7,690. A rise above 7,690 and the 11 January high at 7,694 would likely target the mid-October high at 7,702. Further up the July and September highs can be seen at 7,723 to 7,747. As long as last week’s low at 7,600 underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 dips but tries to regain lost ground The DAX 40 index dipped to its January-to-February uptrend line at 16,856 in overnight trading before recovering some lost ground and heading back up to its Monday 16,943 high. Above it beckon the mid-December and early February record highs at 17,003 to 17,020. Above 17,020 lies the 17,100 mark which may be reached next. This high will be eyed provided no bearish reversal to below last Thursday’s low at 16,782 is seen. Support above that low sits at Friday’s 16,889 low. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 trades in new record highs The S&P 500 continues to steam ahead and is fast approaching its psychological 5,000 mark around which it is expected to at least short-term lose upside momentum. Slips should find support around last Monday and Tuesday’s 4,931 high ahead of Friday’s 4,905 low. Slightly further down sits solid support between Tuesday’s 4,899 low and the 4,903 late January high. Source: ProRealTime

Friday's blowout non-farm payrolls reading has seen the chances of a March rate cut by the Fed diminish yet further. The payroll report blew past expectations, restating the strength of the US economy. An interview with Powell, broadcast last night, revealed that the Fed chief still expected 75bps of cuts this year, but reiterated that the committee was in no rush to cut rates would wait for more data before making a move. Stocks in Asia were muted - while the Nikkei 225 rose, Chinese markets were under pressure once again, as was the ASX 200. The dollar continues to revive, though US indices show little sign of heading substantially lower; indeed, the S&P 500 came within touching distance of 5000 on Friday. After the heavyweight data and earnings of last week, things cool down slightly, though today's US ISM report will be worth watching to see if it confirms the strong outlook for US jobs.

Technical overview remains bullish, and in sentiment CoT speculators upping their heavy buy bias. Source: Bloomberg Shares Federal Reserve Market trend Unemployment Big Tech Technical analysis Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 07:39 Strong headline labor data Plenty to digest last Friday out of the US: (1) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for the month of January showed growth of 353K, smashing the roughly 180K estimates with higher revisions for the two months that preceded it; (2) the unemployment rate held at 3.7% instead of rising, but household survey divergence again as it showed a drop of 31K, and the U6 was a notch higher at 7.2%; (3) the labor force participation rate held at 62.5%; (4) the employment-population ratio was a notch higher at 60.2%; and (5) wage growth month-on-month (m/m) was a much hotter 0.6%, taking it higher year-on-year (y/y) to 4.5%, but came with weakness in overall hours worked. UoM's figures generally improved, and the reaction to Big Tech’s earnings was net positive There were also revised figures out of UoM (University of Michigan), with consumer sentiment improving to 79 and, more importantly, their inflation expectations holding for the 12-month at 2.9%, even if a notch higher for the five-year to the same level. And more from Big Tech in terms of earnings last Thursday: (1) Apple’s figures beat but sales in China were disappointing, and potentially weaker iPhone sales this quarter resulted in its share price declining; (2) Amazon saw decent gains after its earnings and revenue beat, which came with strong guidance for the current quarter; and (3) Meta was the clear outperformer, with its share price closing over 20% higher after managing to beat estimates, announcing a $50bn share buyback program, and its first-ever dividend payment. Key stock indices enjoyed another positive weekly finish, while over in the bond market, we saw mixed performance for Treasury yields that finished lower on the further end (even after Friday’s jump) while the more policy-sensitive closed higher, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) with far more clarity on a hold this March. Week ahead: Services PMIs, auctions, Fed member speak, and more earnings As for the week ahead, it’s a relatively quiet one when looking at the data, and where it’ll be busier for some early on. We’ll get services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) later today out of the US from both S&P Global and ISM (Institute for Supply Management), both expected to remain in expansionary territory. There’s also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) loan officer survey for the fourth quarter of last year to see how bank lending and conditions have been faring. A few auctions over the next three days with the 3-year tomorrow, 10-year on Wednesday, and 30-year on Thursday, and Fed member speak on all three days, earlier its chairman Powell in an interview on reducing “interest rates carefully” with a strong economy. We’ve got the weekly items like inventory data, mortgage applications, and claims, but that aside and on the earnings front in the US, there are a few notable ones including McDonald’s today, Eli Lilly and Uber tomorrow, Disney on Wednesday, ConocoPhillips on Thursday, and PepsiCo on Friday. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Its previous weekly 1st resistance level might have initially held, favoring contrarian sell-after-reversals, but the moves after going past it and stopping them out give conformist buy-breakouts the eventual win. The higher close keeps key technical indicators green, and so too does its overview as bullish in both weekly and daily time frames. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow IG clients remain in extreme sell territory and have raised that bias to start the week off at 81%. Although is lower than the more extreme levels seen prior, there will likely be further caution on shorts getting in until a more pronounced pullback in price is witnessed. CoT speculators are an opposite majority buy and have raised their heavy long bias again, this time to 73% (longs 6,790 lots, shorts 21), momentum likely raising it while shorts generally holding. Source: IG Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of this week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients

With thousands of ETFs to explore, here are five of the best to watch from around the world. These ETFs are chosen for their significant popularity among investors and constant media coverage. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities ETF Investment S&P 500 Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? Top Global ETFs to watch How to trade or invest in top global ETFs with us Investing using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) is an increasingly common strategy, for a variety of reasons. ETFs allow you to buy into a ‘basket of securities’ based on a specific sector or investing approach, without having to buy the assets individually. This approach gives investors increased exposure to a diversified range of investments in a single trade, with the ability to manage risk by trading futures just like an individual stock. Further, ETFs boast the trading liquidity of equity unlike the rigidity of a mutual fund. Other than the convenience, passive ETFs usually offer low expense ratios and lower broker commissions than buying the constituent assets individually. Naturally, ETFs can contain all sorts of investments, including stocks, commodities, and bonds — sourced from all over the world. With inflation falling amid analyst hopes that interest rates will start to tumble in H2 2024, investors are nevertheless seeking the diversification on offer in some of the best global ETFs to protect their portfolios in case of a hard landing. It’s worth noting that an ETF will only ever perform as well as its underlying constituents. We do offer an ETF screener that can help to inform your investing decisions — but these five could be some of the best global ETFs to watch as a starting point. Top global ETFs to watch The following five ETFs have been chosen for their widespread popularity among investors. They are not necessarily the top performing ETFs but are often found in portfolios. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF Invesco Physical Gold ETC Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF The Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF is arguably the most ‘global’ ETF on the market today, as well as being one of the most popular ETFs in the world. It aims to track the performance of the FTSE All-World index, made up of large and mid-sized companies across both developed and emerging markets. This index provides exposure to almost 4,000 companies from across 50 countries at a low annual fee, and arguably offers possibly the most diversified portfolio of stocks possible. On the other hand, it does have a geographical bias, with 60% of companies in the ETF based in the US. And because of the relative size of the US tech giants, the FTSE All-World’s biggest sector is usually technology — which can be volatile. And over the longer term the index is usually beaten by the S&P 500. But the perceived safety of diversification can be attractive — investors get exposure to some emerging markets, the capital gains of the AI-fuelled US tech bubble, and a modicum of protection from single country downturns. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF There are many S&P 500 tracker ETFs on offer, but the iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF is one of the most popular among UK investors. This passive ETF attempts to, as closely as possible, follow the performance of the S&P 500 index, which tracks the performance of the largest 500 companies listed in the United States bymarket capitalisation. This includes market titans such as Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, and IBM — but also smaller mid-sized companies that could grow into the blue chips of tomorrow. The ETF has an expense ratio of just 0.03%, and the S&500 has delivered average annual returns of 10.15% since 1957. This makes the tracker an exceptionally popular ETF for SIPP holders looking to benefit from long-term capital gains growth — and though past performance is no guarantee of future success, S&P 500 index investing is often considered to be a lower-risk investing strategy. Indeed, legendary investor Warren Buffett has often argued the index is the only investment the average person needs for retirement savings — though others disagree. It’s worth noting that that this particular ETF has lower liquidity than others on the market with higher expense fees, so is better suited to long-term investors. Invesco Physical Gold ETC The Invesco Physical Gold ETC seeks to replicate the performance of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd PM Fix Price/USD, with the fund backed one-to-one with gold bullion held by JP Morgan Chase in London bank vaults. Gold remains at circa $2,000/oz levels, as the traditional real asset inflation-hedge, which preserves purchasing power and acts as a protective asset in times of severe market stress, once again performs admirably in this inflationary environment. For context, central banks bought a record 1,136 tons of the precious metal in 2022 and continued to buy record amounts in 2023. And with the US dollar likely to fall in value should rates start to come down, gold could on to another record high in 2024. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF tracks the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index — which, as the name suggests, tracks the performance of equities issued by companies in emerging markets. This includes China, Brazil, Taiwan, and South Africa. Vanguard notes that the index has ‘high potential for growth, but also high risk; share value may swing up and down more than that of stock funds that invest in developed countries.’ Its top three holdings include the market leading Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, alongside Chinese platform stock Tencent, and e-commerce titan Alibaba. The ETF does have a low expense fee at 0.08%, but can be regarded as much higher risk than others on this list. iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF The iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF focuses on some of the best London-listed companies — those which boast the highest dividend yields. Instead of investing in all the companies on the FTSE 100 or FTSE 250 (a common approach), it instead offers diversified exposure to the top 50 UK companies within the FTSE 350 with the highest dividend yield (excluding investment trusts). HSBC, Rio Tinto, and Legal & General are its top holdings, alongside other miners, banks, and several defensive stocks with a reliable history of dividend pay-outs. Of course, there are risks — dividends are not guaranteed and cyclical companies like Rio Tinto or Persimmon can see their dividend yields fall in poor years. How to invest and trade in the best global ETFs with us You can choose to either invest in an ETF, or to trade it. When you invest, you own the underlying shares in the ETF outright and are entitled to any dividends that are paid; you also make a profit if the ETF price appreciates. With us, you can buy ETFs using a share dealing account. Learn about the difference between trading and investing. Trading an ETF enables you to speculate on the future share price’s movement of an ETF – whether you believe it will fall (in which case you’d go short) or rise (in which case you’d go long). You would not own the underlying ETF and won’t receive any dividends, but you can use leverage. Leverage enables you to open a larger position with a small deposit (called a margin), which can help you stretch your capital a little further. However, total profits and losses could easily exceed your margin amount, as they are calculated on total position size, so you’re advised to trade carefully. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

A blowout US jobs report continues to keep rate cut bets in check, with robust labour conditions validating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent discussion to keep rates high for slightly longer. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Federal Reserve United States United States dollar China Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 04:50 Market Recap A blowout US jobs report last Friday continues to keep rate cut bets in check, with robust labour conditions validating Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s recent discussion to keep rates high for slightly longer. The US job market has shown renewed signs of acceleration, with a recent gain of 353,000 jobs in January almost double the 180,000 consensus, while earlier numbers were revised higher as well. Along with a 0.6% month-on-month gain in hourly wages (versus 0.3% consensus), this will likely call for more patience in the unwinding of tight Fed policies and as the Fed Chair said, policymakers will likely wait beyond March. The paring of dovish bets saw US Treasury yields higher, with the two-year yields up 16 basis point (bp) while the 10-year yields rose 14 bp, providing the catalyst for the US dollar to push to a near one-month high. That failed to dent the mood for equities however. Sentiments continued to bask in optimism around big tech earnings last Friday, but may have to take its cue from Fed’s policy outlook eventually once earnings are behind us. The US dollar has seen some resilience lately, reclaiming its 200-day moving average (MA) last week while its relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart defended the key 50 level to keep the near-term upward bias intact. A further move above the 103.80 level of resistance may set its sight to retest the 105.30 level next. On the downside, the 200-day MA will serve as immediate support to hold for buyers. Source: IG charts Ahead this week, attention will be on the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) out tomorrow, where a slight bounce to 52.5 from previous 50.4 is expected, which should further validate more wait-and-see from US policymakers in terms of rate cut timeline. In addition, the earnings season will see notable releases from McDonalds, Caterpillar, Alibaba, Walt Disney. Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a mixed open, with Nikkei +0.43%, ASX -0.93% and KOSPI -1.60% at the time of writing. Chinese equities continue to struggle, with China regulators’ pledge to stabilise markets over the weekend failing to impress. A lack of details over how they plan to “guide more medium- and long-term funds into the market” may drive some reservations, although the tone suggests that authorities are keeping a closer look at the lacklustre market performance thus far. Today’s economic calendar saw more of the same out of China’s Caixin PMI, in which subdued growth conditions are presented. Its composite PMI edged slightly lower to 52.5 from previous 52.6, while the services component underperformed (52.7 versus 53.0 consensus). The data shows some signs of stabilisation for now, but whether this will lead to a firmer recovery ahead remains to be seen. The China A50 index continues to trade within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, which keeps the overall downward trend intact. But at least for now, higher lows on its daily RSI could point to abating downside momentum and drive some attempt to stabilise in the near term. The 11,200 level remains a crucial immediate resistance to overcome, where the upper channel trendline stands alongside the lower edge of its daily Ichimoku cloud. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Near-term head-and-shoulder formation keeps AUD/USD bulls in check Renewed strength in the US dollar on a blowout US job report, alongside a quicker moderation in Australia’s inflation seen last week, has kept the AUD/USD under pressure lately. The pair has reverted to its two-month low, with a breakdown of a near-term head-and-shoulder formation keeping the bias to the downside. To add to the caution, its 100-day and 200-day MAs have given way for now, along with a move back below its Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. Its daily RSI has also failed to reclaim its 50 level after a retest last week. Ahead, the 0.652 level may serve as immediate resistance to overcome, where its 200-day MA coincides with the head-and-shoulder neckline. On the downside, the 0.635 level may be on watch. Source: IG charts Friday: DJIA +0.35%; S&P 500 +1.07%; Nasdaq +1.74%, DAX +0.35%, FTSE -0.09% IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. 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US stocks reach new highs post-FOMC, fueled by tech earnings and a robust January jobs report. Ahead: economic insights and Fed speeches amid February's market challenges. Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 05:29 After a brief FOMC-inspired volatility episode mid-week, regular service resumed as US stock markets finished last week at fresh record highs, following strong earnings reports from Mega Tech (Meta +20.32%) and a robust jobs report. For the week, the Dow Jones added 545 points (+1.43%), the S&P 500 added 1.38% and the Nasdaq gained 1.27%. Non-farm payrolls on Friday night surprised to the upside as the US economy added 353k jobs in January, smashing expectations for a gain of 180k. The number was accompanied by cumulative upward revisions over the prior two months of 126k, as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, slightly below the 3.8% forecast. The US rates market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a rate cut in March, down from a near 80% probability in early January. The US economic calendar is much lighter this week, following a blockbuster couple of weeks. ISM services PMI will be of interest, as well as updated thoughts from Fed speakers, including Bostic, Bowman, and Barkin. US Q4 earnings season continues this week with reports scheduled from companies including McDonalds, Caterpillar, Alibaba, Walt Disney, Uber, Paypal and PepsiCo. As we push deeper into February, it is worth remembering that February is traditionally one of the more challenging months of the year for US equity markets. The slippery slope usually starts in mid-February and extends into the first week of March. S&P 500 Seasonality Index Equityclock.com What is expected from the ISM Services PMI (Tuesday, February 6th at 2 am) Last week, the ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations, increasing by two points to 49.1, the highest level since 2022. The increase was driven by new orders and production, which entered expansionary territory, and supported the idea of a turn higher in manufacturing after fifteen months in contractionary territory. This week, attention turns to the ISM service PMI (Tuesday, February 6th at 2 am). It is expected to print at 51.7, rebounding from 50.4 in December, representing continued expansion in the services sector. ISM Service PMI chart Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis After a strong rally for the S&P 500 into the end of 2023, we started the new year in a more cautious/neutral frame of mind. We remain of the view that the S&P 500 is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the October 2023 low, and note again, the bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart. Bearish RSI divergence occurs when prices make new highs; but the RSI fails to make a new high. Furthermore, the S&P 500 cash is closing in on the psychologically important 5000 resistance level, which is being reinforced by trendline resistance at 5020, drawn from the December 1st 4100 high, viewed on the chart below. As such, we remain patient, waiting for a pullback to develop in the coming weeks in the order of 5-8%. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis After a strong rally for the Nasdaq into the end of 2023, we started the new year in a more cautious/neutral frame of mind. We remain of the view that the Nasdaq is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the October 2023 low. However, a break/ daily close below uptrend support at 17,100, coming from the October lows, is needed to suggest that the Nasdaq has topped and that a deeper retracement towards support at 16,200/16,000 is underway. Until then, allow for the Nasdaq to extend its rally towards 18,000. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar drops for a fifth week due to soft inflation data and a hawkish Fed, with the RBA Board meeting in focus for future policy clues. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Inflation Australian dollar Federal Open Market Committee Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 06:55 Last week we saw the AUD/USD lock in a fifth consecutive week of falls to finish at .6512 (-0.94%), as the pullback from late December .6871 high deepened. The trigger to last week's sell-off was Wednesday's cooler-than-expected Q4 inflation data in Australia. However, telling blows also came for a more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting with the Fed chair all but ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in March, reinforced by a robust non-farm payrolls report on Friday evening. This week's critical local economic event for the AUD/USD is tomorrow's RBA board meeting, previewed below. What is expected from the RBA board meeting (Tuesday, February 6th at 2.30 pm) At its board meeting in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate on hold at 4.35%, as widely expected. The RBA retained a tightening bias, using the same wording used in the November statement, watered-down from previous months. "Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." A run of cooler data since the December meeting (including last week's retail sales and Q4 inflation data) confirms the RBA's thirteen rate hikes between May 2022 and 23rd November are having the desired effect, and will see the RBA keep rates on hold tomorrow at 4.35%. While it's too early for the RBA to perform a dovish pivot, it will likely replace its tightening bias with more balanced forward guidance. We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 rate cuts in August before a second cut in November, which will see the cash rate end the year at 3.85%. RBA official cash rate chart AUD/USD technical analysis Recently, we have been looking for the AUD/USD to turn the corner and move higher based on the idea that the pullback from the December .6871 high is part of a correction, rather than a reversal lower. However, today's break below a strong layer of horizontal support at .6520/00, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October to December rally at .6500c, has cast some doubt over this interpretation. If the AUD/USD does see a sustained break of .6520/00 after tomorrow's RBA board meeting, it would warn that a deeper decline is unfolding towards 6400c, with the scope to weekly trendline support at .6300c. However, if the AUD/USD can regain altitude above .6520/00 over the next 24 hours, we will maintain the view that the decline from the December .6871 high has been a correction, and not part of a reversal lower. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Thanks for sharing @CGE_Trading US Dollar Jumps After NFPs Smash Estimates, Gold Slumps Feb 2, 2024 3:56 PM +02:00 | Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist The latest US NFP release showed the US jobs market in rude health with 353k new jobs created in January compared to forecasts of 180k. Last month’s headline figure was also revised higher to 333k from 216k. The closely watched unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The US dollar was on the backfoot going into the Jobs Report as recent demand for US Treasuries sent their yields tumbling. Renewed US regional banking fears – shares in New York Community Bancorp slumped by around 40% on Wednesday – drove haven demand, leaving the greenback vulnerable to the downside. NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP DAILY PRICE The US dollar index jumped around 50 ticks after the release hit the screens, reversing all of today’s earlier losses. The greenback remains rangebound, for now, but may soon test the 103.83/85 double highs seen over the last couple of weeks. US rate cut expectations pared post-release with less than a 20% chance now seen of a cut in March – from 35% before the release – while May expectations are now 77% compared to a high 80s earlier. US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY CHART Gold’s recent grind higher was quickly reversed after the 13:30 release. Gold tagged $2,065/oz. yesterday, before paring gains. Gold currently trades at $2,033/oz. and is sitting on a prior level of horizontal support and both the 20- and 5-day simple moving averages. A break below here bring $2,009/oz. back into play. GOLD DAILY PRICE CHART What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?

Analyzing key movements and levels in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD post-FOMC, offering a snapshot of crucial technical patterns. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Friday 02 February 2024 05:44 USD/CAD technical analysis USD/CAD showed strength after the FOMC decision, but pivoted to the downside on Thursday, nudging lower towards cluster support resting at 1.3390. It is imperative for the bulls to fiercely safeguard this region; any failure to do so could potentially trigger a retracement towards the 1.3300 handle. Conversely, if the pair regains its poise, its first challenge lies in surpassing the 50-day simple moving average. Beyond this point, the focus shifts to trendline resistance and the 200-day simple moving average, situated in the proximity of 1.3480. USD/CAD daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis A shift towards a risk-off sentiment weighed on AUD/USD during Thursday's trading session, though the pair managed to maintain its position above technical support at 0.6525. For market conditions to be conducive to a bullish reversal, this floor must hold; any breach could trigger a move towards 0.6460. On the flip side, if the mood brightens and the Aussie mounts a comeback, resistance awaits at 0.6600 and then 0.6625. If history is any guide, prices could be rejected from this region on a retest; however, a successful breakout could lead to a move towards 0.6645, followed by 0.6695. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView NZD/USD technical analysis After a subdued performance after the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, NZD/USD rebounded on Thursday, making strides toward trendline resistance at 0.6155. While this technical ceiling is expected to act as a staunch barrier to further advances, a breakout could bring a key Fib level at 0.6180 into play. In contrast, should sellers reemerge and trigger a market retracement, cluster support spanning from 0.6085 to 0.6050 will be the first line of defense against a bearish assault. The bears may struggle to push prices below this region, but if they succeed, a move towards 0.6000 could ensue. NZD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report could sway gold prices, with weak job data potentially boosting and strong data dampening them. This article explores gold's short-term technical outlook. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities Gold United States Gold as an investment Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Friday 02 February 2024 06:17 The Federal Reserve concluded earlier this week its first meeting of 2024, voting to maintain its policy settings unchanged. The FOMC also abandoned its tightening bias, but indicated it will not rush to cut borrowing costs. Chairman Powell went a step further by acknowledging that officials may not yet be confident enough to remove restriction at their next gathering. Although the possibility of a rate cut in March has diminished, the situation could change again if incoming information shows that activity is starting to roll over. In the grand scheme of things, a weaker economy could prompt policymakers to reconsider their stance; after all, data dependency has been the guiding principle for the central bank recently. Given the present state of events, the January US employment report will assume greater importance and carry added weight. That said, Wall Street projections suggest US employers added 180,000 workers last month, though a softer outcome should come as no surprise following a subdued ADP reading and rising jobless claims for the period in question. Upcoming us jobs report Source: DailyFX If nonfarm payrolls figures prove lackluster and fall well short of expectations, a March rate cut might be back on the table. Under these circumstances, we could observe a sharp retracement in US treasury yields and the US dollar. This scenario is likely to foster a constructive environment for gold in the near term. On the other hand, if NFP numbers beat consensus estimates by a wide margin, there’s potential for further reduction of dovish wagers on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. In this scenario, bond yields and the greenback could accelerate to the upside, weighing on the precious metals complex. In this context, bullion could find itself in a precarious position in February. Gold price technical analysis Gold climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,050 barrier and coming within a hair's breadth of breaking $2,065, a key ceiling. With the bulls reasserting control, this resistance could soon be overcome. If that scenario plays out, a rally toward $2,085 is possible. On further strength, the focus will turn to $2,150. Conversely, if buying interest fades and XAU/USD pivots lower, it's vital for traders to watch the $2,050 level for bearish activity. If this area fails to offer support, a drop toward the 50-day simple moving average may unfold, followed by a possible retest of $2,005. Below this floor, all eyes will be on $1,990. Gold price daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.