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MongiIG

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  1. These five FTSE 100 dividend stocks could be some of the best to watch next month. These shares have been selected for their highly defensive natures. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Dividend yield Revenue Debt FTSE Group Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? FTSE 100 2023 Performance Defensive FTSE 100 Stocks Best FTSE 100 Dividend Stocks to Watch FTSE 100 2023 performance 2023 was a volatile year for the FTSE 100, but the UK’s premier index nevertheless ended the year up by 3.8%. This compares with a global average growth of 20% when using the MSCI All Country World Index, the 25% growth experienced by the S&P 500 and the 45% NASDAQ Composite leap driven by the artificial intelligence boom. However, the FTSE is widely regarded as a defensive index, and compares more favourably when dividend payouts are factored in. And for context, 2022 saw the NASDAQ Composite lose more than a third of its value while the FTSE rose by around 1%. Defensive FTSE 100 stocks Further, within the FTSE 100 there are some specific dividend stocks with a highly defensive nature. These companies enjoy an underlying business model whereby revenue and profits will continue to be generated regardless of the wider economic environment. Typically, this is because they provide essential products or services, or enjoy a wide economic moat. In other words, a hallmark of FTSE 100 defensive stocks is that they benefit from inelasticity of demand — such that they can increase prices to match inflation if necessary. This makes them attractive in downturns, but on the other hand, these types of stocks rarely deliver large capital gains. There are several sectors considered as defensive: for example, consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, and tobacco companies. When considering the best dividend stocks, key factors to consider include the dividend yield, the dividend coverage ratio (how many times a company could pay the dividend with current net income), the payout ratio, whether there’s a proven history of payouts, and whether the dividend has grown over time. In particular during this high rate environment, debt is a key factor to watch; previously manageable debt piles are becoming more expensive to maintain and could eat into dividends. These five FTSE 100 dividend stocks are popular defensive choices. But remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns, and popularity does not mean an investment is better. In addition, while these are defensive companies, there are higher returns to be found in cyclical industries. Best FTSE 100 dividend stocks to watch 1. Unilever2. Phoenix Group3. National Grid4. Vodafone5. British American Tobacco Unilever (LON: ULVR) Unilever is a multinational consumer goods company which produces a wide range of products including food, drinks, cleaning agents, beauty and personal care products. Some of its well-known brands include Dove, Ben & Jerry’s, and Hellmann's. Operating in the consumer staples sector, Unilever’s Q3 results saw underlying sales grow by 5.2% year-over-year, while its €billion premium brand portfolio saw underlying sales growth of 7.2%. Regardless of price rises, brand loyalty towards certain food staples appears robust. However, Unilever shares have fallen by nearly 10% over the past year — and the company has responded with an action plan to improve value creation through 2024. The dividend yield may appear underwhelming, but this is often the trade-off for defensive qualities. Dividend Yield: 4% Phoenix Group (LON: PHNX) Phoenix Group has made a strong recovery since mid-October, but nevertheless remains almost 14% down compared to a year ago. This may appear an opportunity, as H1 results saw the FTSE 100 insurer deliver cash generation of £898 million, allowing the company to boost its interim dividend by 5% to 26p per share. Given that Phoenix is now on track to generate £1.3 billion to £1.4 billion of cash generation for the full year, the dividend appears safe — especially with its solvency II ratio of 180% at the top of the 140-180% management target. Insurance is often seen as one of the safest defensive dividend sectors. However, the company’s bonds have likely fallen in value with elevated interest rates, and Phoenix also has a large debt pile to manage. JP Morgan analysts have cut their price target from 655p to just 430p, and downgraded Phoenix to underweight, arguing that ‘the stock has too much debt leverage relative to peers, which creates numerous capital and growth risks in the long term.’ Dividend Yield: 9.8% National Grid (LON: NG) National Grid works within the utilities sector, operating electricity and natural gas transmission across the UK and parts of northeastern United States. It’s hard to think of a more defensive company than the one delivering the country’s energy network. Indeed, the FTSE 100 company has risen by 35% over the past five years and still boasts an index-beating dividend yield. National Grid has invested £7.7 billion in build smart, clean energy infrastructure to boost network reliability — and found £236 million of operating cost efficiencies during 2023 to mitigate the impact of high energy prices. And the company recently updated its five-year financial framework to 2025/26 to increase total cumulative capital investment to £42 billion — balancing dividends with future proofing. Dividend Yield: 5.4% Vodafone (LON: VOD) Vodafone shares have fallen by 56% over the past five years. This may be a cautionary tale — telecoms are widely regarded as defensive and yet the stock has failed to retain its value. On the other hand, new investors might be tempted by the double-digit dividend yield alongside a price-to-earnings ratio of just 2. But it’s worth noting this figure is based on asset sales in its last financial year which included the €8.61 billion generated from the sale of Vantage Towers. And in recent half-year results, net debt increased by €2.9 billion to €36.2 billion, raising questions over the dividend’s sustainability. However, recent German growth could be encouraging for investors because Vodafone relies on the country for a significant chunk of its revenue. For context, 2021 legislation saw housing associations banned from bundling TV services with rental contracts, hurting Vodafone’s prospects. CEO Margherita Della Valle enthused that ‘during the first half of the year, we have delivered improved revenue growth in nearly all of our markets and have returned to growth in Germany in the second quarter.’ Dividend Yield: 11.2% British American Tobacco (LON: BATS) British American Tobacco is one of the world’s largest tobacco companies, boasting a brand portfolio including Lucky Strike, Dunhill, and Pall Mall. It’s also highly defensive given the addictive nature of nicotine — and yet, shares have fallen by almost a third over the past year. The company continues to face regulatory problems; the UK is considering a ban on single use vapes and both the government and the opposition have confirmed support for a phased ban of traditional tobacco products. BATS is also contending with the wider fall in smoking worldwide; recently writing off £25 billion in value due to falling outlook for its brands as cigarette sales struggle in the US. And like Vodafone and Phoenix, the FTSE 100 business also has a large debt pile. Nevertheless, the business is investing heavily in alternative products including vapes, though most profits are still derived from traditional products. In half-year results, overall revenue rose by 4.4% driven by these ‘new categories,’ whose revenue rose by 26.6%. Dividend Yield: 9.9% Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. Asian markets made gains overnight, following on from the rally on Wall Street on Monday that marked a strong start to the week after the lacklustre beginning of the year. Tech stocks led the way, supported by falling yields, after a survey of inflation expectations by the New York Fed showed that fears of rising prices were continuing to abate. In addition, Fed governor Bowman said that she would support eventual rate cuts, shifting away from her more hawkish stance. Oil prices dropped sharply yesterday after Saudi Arabia cut its official selling price for February. All eyes are on the US inflation readings later in the week, which is closely followed by the start of earnings season.
  3. Bitcoin (BTC) Slumps on ETF Rejection Rumor, All Eyes on the SEC Jan 3, 2024 | Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist Bitcoin slumps as report suggests SEC will reject all ETF proposals in January. A bearish report by crypto financial services company Martixport is said to be behind the sharp sell-off in Bitcoin. The report suggested that despite all the recent meetings between ETF applicants and SEC staff, and subsequent amendments, all applications will fall short of SEC requirements and will be denied in January. The report added that these requirements may be fulfilled by Q2 2024.
  4. Boeing share price trades around 8% lower in pre-open on the IG platform. Source: Bloomberg Shares Boeing Alaska Airlines Price Share price Stock Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 08 January 2024 12:09 Boeing stock drops sharply after Alaska Airlines incident Boeing Co (All Sessions)’s attempts to put its best foot forward in 2024 have been dealt a blow by the incident in Alaska, sending the shares lower on the IG platform this morning. Boeing's recent stock drop and setbacks are undoubtedly concerning for the company. The blowout incident with an Alaska Airlines plane has once again raised regulatory scrutiny on Boeing, just as it was seeking approval for new models of its Max jet. This has resulted in a 7.7% drop in Boeing's stock on the IG platform. The timing of these setbacks is critical for Boeing, as it is trying to catch up with its competitor Airbus, which has gained market share following the issues with the Max airliners in previous years. The delays in aircraft production will not only impact Boeing's financial position but also undermine its new strategy. Moreover, the Alaska incident will likely hinder Boeing's efforts to enter the Chinese market, which has already been strained due to trade tensions. This setback will further delay Boeing's return to profitability, with net income expected to remain negative despite a rebound from the poor performance in 2022. Although Boeing's Q3 revenue of $18.1 billion showed a 13% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in commercial airplanes and global services segments, there were challenges in commercial airplane deliveries, which declined by 6% compared to the previous year. The company also lowered its 2023 delivery outlook due to fuselage-related production issues. Boeing's core operating margin improved in Q3, standing at -6.6% compared to -19.2% in the prior-year quarter. However, the adjusted loss per share narrowed from the previous year, indicating some progress in mitigating losses. Boeing share price technical analysis Even before the Alaska Airlines incident, the Boeing share price had dropped by around 7% from its 2 ¾ year December $267.54 high to last week’s $243.0 low. Boeing Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview The steep October-to-January uptrend line had already been breached before the incident happened with the 50% retracement of the advance seen since then and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $221.90 to $221.84 representing possible downside targets. More significant potential support can be found along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $213.77 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $211.11. Boeing Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview Potential resistance can be found at last week’s low at $243.00 which represents the top of this week’s price gap. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. Hi @Raslghoul Here are a few links you can have a look at: The complete guide to trading strategies and styles The complete guide to trading strategies Best forex trading strategies and tips I hope this helps All the best - MongiIG
  6. The US dollar remained steady on Monday morning after being shaken on Friday following the release of non-farm payrolls data. Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 08 January 2024 Friday's figures showed that the US economy created 216,000 jobs in the last month of 2023, more than the 173,000 in November and higher that the 170,000 expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings rose to 4.1% year-over-year. The next test for the dollar will be US consumer price index data on Thursday. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has this overview. (AI Video Summary) US dollar steadies following jobs data release The US dollar had a bit of a bumpy ride after the release of the latest jobs report, but it has since settled down. The report showed that the US economy added 216,000 jobs in December 2023, which was better than expected. The unemployment rate remained steady, and wages actually increased more than economists predicted. This suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change interest rates in the near future. The anticipation for a rate cut in March has also decreased since the report came out. Now, the focus is on the upcoming release of consumer price index (CPI) data, which is expected to show a slight increase in prices. Overall, the US dollar is holding its own against other currencies, showing a small increase for the day. CPI data could impact the US dollar So, what does all of this mean? Essentially, the US economy is still growing and adding jobs, which is a good sign. The Federal Reserve, which is like the country's central bank, is in charge of setting interest rates. The strong jobs report suggests that they won't feel the need to cut rates anytime soon. This has made traders less certain that a rate cut will happen in March. Instead, they are now looking at the CPI data, which tells us about changes in prices. If the CPI data shows prices going up a bit, it could have an impact on the US dollar and how it performs against other currencies. But for now, the US dollar is doing alright and holding its ground. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. As per tradition, the 4Q 2023 earnings parade will kick off with the major US banks, starting with JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America this Friday. Source: Bloomberg Shares Bank United States JPMorgan Chase Price Interest Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 08 January 2024 04:58 US bank stocks: Earnings schedule Source: Refinitiv As per tradition, the 4Q 2023 earnings parade will kick off with the major US banks, starting this Friday (12 January 2024) with JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America (BAC) leading the pack. US bank stocks: Share price performance On a one-year basis, the share price performance for the banks has varied widely. JPM is the clear outperformer with a 26.9% gain over the past year, while BAC lagged the broader industry (+9.3%) with a mere 0.9% gain. Its underperformance may partly be attributed to a slower price recovery from the March 2023 US banking turmoil, given its relatively larger exposure to unrealised losses in its bond portfolio. Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv. Data as of 3 January 2024. For 4Q 2023, expectations are for most major US banks to turn in positive revenue growth from the previous year. Notably, a double-digit growth (11.8%) for JPM is the consensus, with optimism surrounding the revenue and cost synergies brought by the ongoing integration of First Republic Bank into its business. On the other hand, BAC is expected to be the exception with a negative top-line growth (-2.6%) out of the major US banks, while turning in the biggest earnings per share (EPS) decline (-19.9%). Falling bond yields in 4Q 2023 may offer banks stock some breathing space 4Q 2023 has seen a drastic plunge in bond yields on expectations of rate cuts ahead, with the US 10-year Treasury yields easing sharply from its peak of 5.02% to the current 4.05%. Given that the banks are previously forced to pay up for deposits to compete with higher yielding instruments, falling yields may aid to ease some pressures on the banks’ funding costs. The recovery in bond prices in 4Q 2023 may also alleviate the losses on the banks’ securities portfolio, potentially aiding to bring back some confidence for the stability of the banking sector. Impact on net interest income on watch In 3Q 2023, most banks' net interest margins (NIM) largely declined, as banks moved to provide higher deposit costs to limit deposit outflows. Therefore, with the rate narrative pivoting towards lower rates through 2024, eyes will be on the subsequent impact on the banks’ NIM and whether margins can remain supported. Based on the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s data which tracks commercial bank balances, lending activities in the 4Q 2023 may remain weak, amid tighter lending standards and high interest rates. This seems to be a continuation of the prevailing trend throughout 2023, and market participants will be on the lookout for any positive surprises on the lending front from the banks. Validation for soft landing hopes on the lookout With market participants basking in hopes of a soft landing scenario into 2024, the banks’ guidance will be closely watched for validation of a resilient economy. During 3Q 2023, the major banks have provided lower-than-expected allowance for credit losses, with a decline from 2Q 2023. The extent of provisions for credit costs provides a gauge of economic risks that the banks foresee, therefore, market participants will want to see loss provisions moderating further towards ‘normal’ levels (levels preceding the Covid-19 pandemic) to support views of soft landing. The banks have also previously guided that US consumers finances remain healthy while noting some resilience in US economic conditions, which leaves views in place for similar positive guidance ahead. Improved risk environment may support investment banking and wealth management activities Following a disappointing first nine months of 2023 in investment banking activities, expectations are in place that better times are ahead, with resilient economic conditions and a different course of rate outlook into 2024. The improved risk environment seen in 4Q 2023 could be supportive of such views and with early signs of revival in deal-making, market participants will want to see the positive impact being reflected in the banks’ results, although it may come with a few months lag. Nevertheless, any signs that the worst is over on that front will be very much cheered and may help to contribute to the banks’ earnings recovery. Technical analysis – JPMorgan’s share price hovers around record high JPMorgan’s share price has briefly touched a fresh record high last week for the first time in more than two years, hovering around its October 2021 peak at the US$173.00 level. Near-term overbought technical conditions may call for some cooling in its recent rally, but any sell-off could still be a near-term retracement within a broader upward trend at current point in time. Prices continue to trade above its Ichimoku cloud support on the weekly chart, alongside various moving averages (MA) which keep the bullish bias intact. On the downside, the US$166-$168 level may serve as support zone to hold with recent consolidation. Source: IG charts Technical analysis – Bank of America’s share price showing some signs of life Despite underperforming the broader industry for the bulk of 2023, BAC share price has been showing some signs of life lately, having broken above a broad descending wedge pattern in November 2023. Notably, on the weekly chart, its share price has overcome its Ichimoku cloud resistance for the first time since March 2022, while its weekly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) headed above the key zero mark as a sign of building upward momentum. Further upside may leave its 2023 high at the US$37.12 level on watch for a retest, while on the downside, recent consolidation leaves US$32.84 as potential support to hold. Source: IG charts Technical analysis – Goldman Sachs’ share price broken out of descending triangle Goldman Sachs’ share price has broken out of a broad descending triangle last month, moving on to retest the US$388.40 horizontal resistance, which marked its November 2022 peak. Similarly, on the weekly chart, its MACD has also reverted back above the zero level as a reflection of building upward momentum. Overcoming the US$388.40 level of resistance may leave its all-time high at the US$429.80 level on watch next. Source: IG charts This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. Q4 2023 earnings growth expected to slow compared to Q3. Source: Bloomberg Indices Price–earnings ratio Economic growth S&P 500 Revenue Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 27 December 2023 11:07 Earnings growth to slow The current expected earnings growth rate is 2.4%, which is lower than the estimated growth rate of 8.1% on September 30. If 2.4% is the actual growth rate, it will mark the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the US 500 index, but at a lower rate compared to the third quarter. The earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter is currently more pessimistic compared to historical averages. Analysts have lowered their earnings estimates for Q4 2023 by a larger margin than usual, resulting in a decrease in estimated earnings for the quarter. This decline is larger than the 5-year and 10-year averages and represents the largest decrease in quarterly Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate since Q1 2023. Negative guidance above average In terms of guidance, a higher percentage of S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance for Q4 2023 compared to the average. This suggests that more companies are expecting lower earnings for the quarter. The number and percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance are above the 5-year and 10-year averages. Among the sectors, Communication Services, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth, while Energy, Materials, and Health Care sectors are predicted to report a decline in earnings. Analysts have also decreased their revenue estimates for the quarter. The current expected year-over-year revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.1%, which is lower than the expectations on September 30. If 3.1% is the actual revenue growth rate, it will mark the 12th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Longer-term outlook more encouraging Looking ahead, analysts expect earnings growth of 6.2% for Q1 2024, 10.5% for Q2 2024, and 11.5% for the full year 2024. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 19.3, which is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. It is also higher than the forward P/E ratio recorded at the end of the third quarter. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. Friday's post-NFP rebound for US markets failed to translate into a broader rally in Asia overnight, with the Hang Seng slumping once more. Investors have been noticeably reticent about pushing stocks higher after the strong gains of Q4, and this week's inflation data from around the globe, most notably the US, China and Japan, combined with the start of earnings season, means that risk appetite may well remain muted for the time being. While the calendar for the day is sparse, it will be worth watching the Dow this afternoon, to see how Boeing stock fares following the incident with a 737 aircraft over the weekend. Boeing stock has a 4.3% weighting in the Dow.
  10. Thanks for sharing @THT and @phillo Happy Holidays and a great new year!
  11. The first Black Swan Battle between IG’s chief analyst Chris Beauchamp and South African analyst Shaun Murison is about the Dot-Com bubble. IG_BlackSwanBattle 1_V7_MID RES MASTER.mp4 What are your thoughts?
  12. Dear Community Member Wishing you and your family a happy holiday season and a peaceful and prosperous new year. We would like to take this opportunity to thank you for all your commitment and dedication to the community. We are personally proud of your achievements. We wish you the very happiest and most peaceful of holidays and look forward to a New Year 2024 filled with success and joy. Kind regards, IG Community Team
  13. Stock markets hit an air pocket yesterday, dropping sharply after the run of gains made since the end of October. In Asia the Nikkei 225 led the fallers, losing 1.5%, while US yields ticked higher. Markets continue to keep a way eye on the Red Sea, where a US-led force is to begin escorting vessels to protect them from drone and missile attacks. Today's US initial jobless claims figures are the main event of the session, with just PCE price data tomorrow left before Christmas.
  14. With rate-cut views validated by US policymakers at the recent FOMC meeting, the risk rally has found further momentum towards year-end, as the S&P 500 logged its seventh straight week of consecutive gains. Source: Bloomberg Indices S&P 500 Personal consumption expenditures price index United States Inflation Federal Reserve Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 21 December 2023 09:08 S&P 500 logged its seventh straight week of gains, with eyes on its all-time high ahead With rate-cut views validated by US policymakers at the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the risk rally has found further momentum towards year-end, as the S&P 500 logged its seventh straight week of consecutive gains. We may have to go back all the way to 2017 to see a seven-week winning streak from the index. From the macro lens, the trend of easing US inflation and soft landing hopes have kept risk-on sentiments well-anchored, with earlier pushback on rate cuts by Federal Reserve (Fed) members failing to trigger much of a dent. As we head into year-end, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Nasdaq touching its all-time high, all eyes will be on whether the S&P 500 can deliver as well, standing just less than 1.5% away. For now, extreme overbought technical conditions do reveal considerable risks in opening fresh longs at current level, with the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart hovering at its highest level since September 2020. The 4,740 level may stand as immediate resistance to overcome for the index, serving as a strong hurdle on previous three occasions. Having broken out of a falling channel pattern back in mid-November this year, the 4,740 level also marked the eventual price projection of the channel breakout. That said, the broader upward trend remains intact with the series of higher highs and higher lows in place since October 2022, with any retracement likely to be a temporary move. Source: IG charts In terms of market breadth, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving averages (MA) are currently hovering at extreme overbought levels (88% versus previous peaks of 90-92%). Similarly, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 100-day MA are also touching previous peaks of around 80-82%, which may suggest that the risk-reward may be less ideal at current stage. The Fear & Greed Index are also back to ‘extreme greed’ levels for the first time since August 2023, while the VIX has somewhat stabilised at current levels over the past few trading days. Source: TradingView Ahead this week, we will have the last piece of US inflation data for the year – the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price data, which will be closely watched for validation that the US disinflation trend is continuing. In contrast to the Fed's projection of three rate cuts next year, the interest rate market still expects six rate cuts in 2024, with the first cut as early as March 2024. Therefore, a quicker moderation in inflation back to the 2% target will be much-needed to confirm such dovish expectations. The consensus expectation is for November core PCE to ease to 3.3% from previous 3.5%, which will be the lowest rate since May 2021. Likewise, the headline PCE is expected to moderate to 2.8% from previous 3.0%. Sector performance In terms of sector performance last week, market participants clearly leaned towards taking on higher risks post-FOMC as defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, utilities) underperformed. Nevertheless, risk-on sentiments remain broad-based, with ten out of 11 S&P 500 sectors in the green last week, aiding the S&P 500 to deliver its seventh week of gains. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks were all higher for the week, but with more notable performance coming from Nvidia (+7.4%), Meta Platforms (+6.0%),Amazon (+5.6%) and Tesla (+5.2%). The rate-sensitive real estate sector was the top performing sector, continuing its catch-up traction on the Fed’s dovish rhetoric. The sector has been the top performer over the past month as well. On the other hand, the energy sector managed to pull off some gains as oil prices recover from its lowest level since July 2023, but the bulk of 2023 has largely seen the sector consolidate in a range. Year-to-date, the sector remained in the red (-4.3%), alongside the defensive sectors. Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv *Note: The data is from 12th – 18th December 2023. Source: Refinitiv *Note: The data is from 12th – 18th December 2023. Source: Refinitiv *Note: The data is from 12th – 18th December 2023. IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. 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  15. These Artificial Intelligence ETFs could be the five best to watch next month. These ETFs have been selected for their large market valuations. Source: Bloomberg Shares ETF Artificial intelligence Nvidia Robotics Automation Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? 1. ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF2. Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF3. Wisdom Tree Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF4. iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF5. L&G Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF Artificial Intelligence (AI) has arguably been the Exchange Traded Fund theme of choice in 2023. The ‘magnificent seven’ US tech shares have delivered the vast majority of the returns within the S&P 500 this year — driven by AI enthusiasm. Indeed, the popular ‘picks and shovel’ AI stock — Nvidia — has seen its market capitalisation rise by 236% year-to-date to circa $1.2 trillion. Q3 results saw Nvidia’s revenue rise by a whopping 206% year-over-year $18.12 billion, with CEO Jensen Huang nothing that ‘NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off.’ The 2023 AI boom was arguably started by the launch of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT, but artificial intelligence has long been used across sectors including entertainment, social media, art, retail, security, sport analytics, manufacturing, self-driving cars, healthcare, and warehousing alongside dozens of other sectors. For perspective, ChatGPT garnered over 1 million users in just five days — and now boasts over 100 million weekly active users. By contrast, it took Netflix three and a half years to hit the same milestone. As with every technological step forward, there are some risks to consider. To start with, AI development is costly, and is therefore mostly driven by the blue chips. Further, many AI experiments fail, and many investors consider that diversifying their risk through an AI-themed ETF could be an attractive choice. Of course, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. And no investment is risk free. Best AI ETFs to watch ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF The ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF was the first ETF of its kind to hit the market in the US. Launched in 2013, it has 78 holdings and boasts $1.4 billion in assets under management. The fund is focused on businesses driving ‘transformative innovations in robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence.’ With holdings across both developed and emerging economics, the ETF contains companies ranging from fabless manufacturing company Keyence, warehouse robotics expert Symbotic, and robotic surgery specialist Intuitive Surgical. It’s worth noting the higher-than-average expense ratio of 0.95%, though the fund has performed well in 2023. Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF, established back in 2016, aims to ‘invest in companies that potentially stand to benefit from increased adoption and utilization of robotics and artificial intelligence.’ The ETF holds 44 stocks, including semiconductor champion Nvidia, but also Swiss industrial manufacturer ABB and Japanese robotics company Fanuc, alongside Keyence and Intuitive Surgical. These two are also in the ROBO ETF above — which isn’t too surprising when the specialisation of both companies is considered. The ETF is up by 35% over the past year and 70% over the past five years, but also has an elevated expense ratio of 0.68%. For perspective, a typical NASDAQ 100 index tracker might have an expense ratio of as little as 0.14%. Wisdom Tree Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF The WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF tracks the performance of the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index. The fund is run by Irish Life Investment Managers and provides access to a dedicated selection of companies working within the AI space. Top holdings include Upstart, Nvidia, Blackberry, and the promising C3.ai — with the vast majority of the ETF invested in the information technology sector, and heavily concentrated in the US. The fund is ISA, SIPP and UCITS eligible with a middling expense ratio of 0.4%. This could appear good value given the strong performance over the past few years. iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF The iShares Automation and Robotics UCITS ETF is a popular Blackrock offering, which invests in developed and emerging companies generating significant sales from robotics and automation. It tracks the STOXX Global Automation and Robotics Index. The fund is worth more than $3 billion, and is UCITS, SIPP and ISA eligible. Like Wisdom Tree’s offering, it offers a reasonable expense ratio of 0.4%. With 86 holdings, its top 10 investments include Lattice Semiconductor Corp, Sage Group, Nvidia, Advantest, and Bentley Systems. In common with most AI ETFs, the fund performed poorly in 2022 though rebounded sharply in 2023. This recovery may be set to continue given falling inflation and analyst hopes of a soft landing. L&G Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF The L&G Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF is run by a management team which believes that AI is a long-term trend that is ‘radically changing the way we live and work.’ The actively managed ETF picks stocks via a team of AI experts and is UCITS compliant. Significant holdings include the NASDAQ blue chips and ‘magnificent seven’ companies Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon. While the ETF has done very well since its launch in 2019, Legal & General considers its risk profile to be a 7, on a scale where 1 is the lowest and 7 is the highest risk. Further, it has a mildly expensive expense ratio of 0.49%. Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  16. Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla could be the five best AI stocks to watch next month. These stocks are the five largest AI companies listed in the US. Source: Bloomberg Shares Artificial intelligence Nvidia Meta Platforms ChatGPT Tesla, Inc. Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? 1. Microsoft2. Alphabet3. Nvidia4. Meta Platforms5. Tesla Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been the investing theme of 2023. Indeed, almost all of the S&P 500’s gains in 2023 have come from just seven companies — the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ — all of whom are potentially riding the AI wave to some degree. While this may be yet another bubble, Artificial Intelligence is arguably different to similar tech manias. It’s already in use across a wide variety of real-world applications, including in entertainment, social media, art, retail, security, sport analytics, manufacturing, self-driving cars, healthcare, and warehousing alongside dozens of other sectors. Every Netflix recommendation, every supermarket rewards purchase, and every football match is analysed ever more relentlessly in order to provide more and better data. And while consumers have always understood — even peripherally — that AI was taking over more and more of the heavy lifting; the sector’s investment catalyst finally arrived earlier this year. This catalyst is of course ChatGPT, the OpenAI-developed chatbot which garnered over 1 million users in just five days. It took Facebook 10 months, and Netflix three and a half years to hit the same milestone. ChatGPT now boasts over 100 million weekly active users, and investors are now considering whether the innovation could make careers across the spectrum entirely redundant. From an investment perspective, interest rates are relatively high, and quantitative easing appears all but over for the foreseeable future. AI development is exceptionally expensive, and for every ChatGPT breakthrough, there are hundreds of costly failures. Therefore, the best AI stocks to watch could be predominantly the larger blue chips — which also helps to diversify any investment in the event that their AI projects fail. However, it’s also worth noting that some commentators consider the large US stocks are inside an AI bubble that will eventually pop. And remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. While the following are the largest AI-focused companies stateside, Apple and several others are excluded because analysts disagree on whether they qualify as AI companies. Best AI stocks to watch Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Microsoft is the original global computing power, so it makes sense that the US behemoth tops the list of the best AI stocks to watch. The company already had a strong relationship with OpenAI prior to the ChatGPT launch and has invested $13 billion into the company since 2019. This remains a symbiotic relationship — Microsoft is allowing OpenAI access to its cloud centres to increase ChatGPT’s computing power, while native search engine Bing has incorporated the chatbot into its functions in an attempt to steal Google’s overwhelmingly dominant market share. With OpenAI still reportedly planning a $86 billion IPO after the return of CEO Sam Altman, Microsoft could also soon see a direct return on its investment. In Q1 results, revenue rose by 13% to $56.5 billion. CEO Satya Nadella enthused that ‘with copilots, we are making the age of AI real for people and businesses everywhere. We are rapidly infusing AI across every layer of the tech stack and for every role and business process to drive productivity gains for our customers.’ Market Capitalisation: $2.77 trillion Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google parent Alphabet may control 84% of the global search market share — but Yahoo was once king of search too. While Alphabet laid off thousands of employees in 2023, it’s launched its own rival chatbot, Bard. Bard runs on Google’s LaMDA programming, which has been in development since 2021. While there have been accusations of rushing Bard out to compete with ChatGPT, the titan should soon smooth out the issues. It’s worth noting that AI is already used across many of Google’s current functions. And it’s got at least two more AI-focused projects; its coding-focused Generative Language API, and DeepMind which it acquired in 2014. In Q3 results, CEO Sundar Pichai noted the ‘product momentum this quarter, with AI-driven innovations across Search, YouTube, Cloud, our Pixel devices and more.’ Revenue increased by 11% year-over-year to $77 billion. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Nvidia is well-known as one of the world’s most valuable chipmakers, used in electronics ranging from smartphones, to cars, to high-end computing. Nvidia shares have risen by 235% year-to-date to $480, leaving the company with a sky-high price-to-equity ratio of 63 — and yet recent quarterly earnings saw yet another beat. And Nvidia’s most advanced deep learning chips might mean that the NASDAQ company is still undervalued. They’re already in use at clients such as Alphabet and Facebook owner Meta to power both internal and user facing AI applications. As AI becomes ever more mainstream, demand for these chips is surging, and importantly, there is a high economic barrier to entry — Nvidia has a wide economic moat surrounding its market position as the ‘bricks and mortar’ AI choice. Indeed, its chips are so advanced that they are subject to export controls in some instances from the US. Q3 results saw Nvidia’s revenue rise by a whopping 206% year-over-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter to $18.12 billion — with CEO Jensen Huang nothing that ‘NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off.’ Market Capitalisation: $1.24 trillion Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) Meta Platforms, owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, has enjoyed an excellent resurgence in 2023 — rising by 176% year-to-date to come close to its all-time high. This ‘family of apps’ saw monthly active users rise by 7% year-over-year to 3.96 billion people during Q3, representing more than 50% of the world’s population. The tech titan has strongly benefitted from CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s ‘year of efficiency,’ with headcount decreasing by 24% over the past year to 66,185 people on 30 September 2023. For context, Meta has been hit by a wave of headwinds; rising rates, falling advertising spending, TikTok competition, and Apple’s 2021 operating system update — alongside huge spending on the Metaverse which has yet to translate into profits. And for balance, the company still faces lawsuits alleging its products are both addictive and harmful to children. Further, virtual reality remains a niche market despite the heavy spending on the sector. In Q3 results, Meta saw revenue rise by an impressive 23% year-over-year to $34.15 billion, while costs and expenses fell by 7% to $20.4 billion. Market Capitalisation: $886 billion Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Tesla is the original EV trailblazer, and despite the legal and media troubles of CEO Elon Musk, its advancements in artificial intelligence could see the auto company rise once again to the giddy highs of late 2021. Indeed, its share price has already recovered by 133% year-to-date as it eyes possible expansions in India and Europe — though the recent catalyst is the long-awaited Cybertruck launch, which could drive significant further growth through 2024. Fully autonomous driving is the long-term goal, with the company planning to launch a robot taxi service soon. It’s also developing Optimus — a humanoid robot which Musk thinks could become more valuable than Tesla’s auto operations in time. However, economic slowdown in China could cause short-term profitability issues in 2024. Market Capitalisation: $801 billion Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  17. Persimmon, easyJet, Halfords, Baltic Classifieds and Currys could be the five best FTSE 250 shares to watch next month. These shares have been selected for recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares FTSE 100 EasyJet Tax Dividend Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? 1. Persimmon2. easyJet3. Halfords4. Baltic Classifieds5. Currys Heading into the new year, the UK’s macroeconomic environment is perhaps more encouraging than has been the case for most of 2023. CPI inflation has fallen to 4.6% and appears on a downwards trajectory — and while the base rate remains at a relatively elevated 5.25%, many analysts consider that monetary policy will start to ease in 2024. However, UK GDP fell unexpectedly in October — by 0.3% in the month, after a 0.2% growth in September. Meanwhile last month, The Financial Times reported on Insolvency Service data indicating that company insolvencies are at their highest level since 2009. Analysts remain divided on whether the UK will experience a recession in 2024, or scrape through to a relatively soft landing. Indeed, whether equities, commodities or real estate, there appears to be no shortage of fence sitting — making considering the best FTSE 250 shares to watch next month somewhat of a challenge. For perspective, the index is essentially flat for the year, reflecting this ambiguity. The FTSE 250 started out at 19,134 points, rose sharply to 20,615 points in early February, fell to 16,783 points by late October and is now at 19,221 points. However, where’s there’s uncertainty, there’s also often opportunity. But of course, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Top FTSE 250 Shares to watch Persimmon (LON: PSN) Persimmon shares sunk dramatically over the course of 2023 to just 960p as recently as late October — and was ejected from the FTSE 100. But the housebuilder has since recovered sharply to 1,343p as investors digest whether the selloff was perhaps an overreaction. For context, mortgage rates now appear to be cooling, with some fixed deals currently falling below 4%. And while new home completions were 37% lower year-over-year in Q3 2023, Halifax is predicting that UK house prices will fall by just 2-4% in 2024. Of course, Persimmon’s market capitalisation remains at less than 50% of its mid-2021 value, reflecting weaker results and a poor outlook. But housing is well-known as a cyclical industry; and long-term investors with an eye on value may take note. Any significant upside in 2024 could well see the housebuilder readmitted to the FTSE 100. easyJet (LON: EZJ) easyJet shares enjoyed a volatile 2023 — and were worth just 360p in mid-October but have recovered to 499p today. The airline recently reported a record H2 2023 financial performance and now maintains a ‘positive outlook’ for FY 2024. For perspective, the FTSE 250 airline saw FY23 headline profit before tax of £455 million — a £633 million year-on-year improvement — while easyJet holidays jumped by 221%, delivering £122 million in profit before tax. Total revenue rose by 42% to £8.17 billion, driven by pricing power, increased capacity, improved load factors and the aforesaid growth of easyJet holidays. On the other hand, costs rose by 30%, but easyJet remains on track to restart dividends, with 4.5p per share worth £34 million to be paid out in early 2024. And it even expects this payout to ‘increase to 20% of headline PAT on FY24's result’ with the ‘potential to increase level of future returns to be assessed over the coming years.’ With substantial fleet expansion promised, the long-term ambition is to deliver more than £1 billion of profit before tax. Halfords (LON: HFD) Halfords shares sunk late last month after issuing tightened guidance to the lower end of previous expectations. The auto and bicycle retailer now expects FY24 underlying pre-tax profits to come in at between £48 million and £53 million, down from £48 million to £58 million. The FTSE 250 company attributed this fall to weaker demand for discretionary expensive purchases, but also noted that needs based and B2B sales displayed strong growth. And despite the ‘challenging macro environment,’ the retailer still saw revenue in the 26 weeks to 29 September rise by 13.9% to £873.5 million. Further, it remains confident in its mid-term target of £90 million to £110 million underlying pre-tax profit — and is going into the typically higher-demand Christmas period. Baltic Classifieds Baltic Classifieds shares have risen by 60% year-to-date as the Lithuanian company — which specialises in classifieds portals — rebounded after a weak 2022 to 232p. In recent half-year results, the group saw operating profit rise by 36% to £19.4 million and increased annual revenue growth guidance to between 18% and 19%. At the time, CEO Justinas Šimkus enthused that ‘we have seen record numbers of advertisers, as well as an improved competitive position and increased yields across our entire portfolio.’ Peel Hunt has upgraded its price target to 245p, arguing that the business model is now proven and further, that there are significant opportunities for growth through 2024. Accordingly, the interim dividend is up by 25%, and the company has also delivered €7 million in share buybacks. Currys (LON: CURY) Currys shares spent some time in 2023 suffering in the doldrums — but enjoyed a good day after releasing a half-year trading update described by CEO Alex Baldock as ‘a really good self-help job.’ The FTSE 250 company is maintaining profit guidance for the year, but has also advised that group sales have fallen by 4% year-over-year to £4.2 billion in the six months to October. However, there are some silver linings; the Nordic business has seen profit margins recover to similar levels experienced two years ago, and the company has also seen some cash inflow as a result of its decision to sell its Greek and Cypriot divisions for £172 million. Encouragingly, while this cash is earmarked for paying down debt and funding the pension scheme, Currys is also exploring ‘the potential to return any surplus capital to shareholders.’ And it’s also worth noting that the current half of the retailer’s trading year may be more profitable as it contains Black Friday alongside the crucial Christmas trading period. Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  18. Rolls-Royce, Marks & Spencer, 3i Group, Centrica and AB Foods could be the five top stocks to watch in 2024. These are the shares which have seen the largest capital growth on the FTSE 100 over the past year. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Investment FTSE 100 Dividend Centrica Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? 1. Rolls-Royce2. Marks & Spencer3. 3i Group4. Centrica5. AB Foods UK investors tend to turn to the FTSE 100 for the relative safety provided by the dividend stocks — while the index typically pays out circa 4% per annum, there are many popular choices which have been sustainably paying out more than this over many years. While past performance is not an indicator of future returns, but the common trope is that investors in FTSE 100 dividend shares are eschewing the increased capital gains on offer elsewhere — for example, the S&P 500 — in return for reduced risk. However, several FTSE 100 companies have delivered extraordinary returns in 2023, and while there is an element of subjectivity to ‘top stocks’ to watch in 2024, the following five could be on investor radars. Top stocks to watch Rolls-Royce (LON: RR) Up 205% year-to-date to over 300p, CEO Tufan Erginbilgic has seen Rolls-Royce become the star performer of the FTSE 100, with the executive delivering a magnificent turnaround during his first year at the helm. For balance, he came on board at a fortuitous time; soaring post-pandemic travel demand has increased flying hours and therefore demand for civil aviation work. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war has seen defence spending rise sharply. And the rising political importance of energy independence is also a helpful tailwind, given the investment into small modular nuclear reactors. But the growth could be set to continue. With a slew of banking giants, including Citi, UBS and Deutsche Bank upgrading their targets in recent days, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Rolls to BB+. This represents a significant step towards regaining its all-important BBB investment grade status, lost during the pandemic. For context, the FTSE 100 stalwart plans to deliver operating profit of as much as £2.8 billion and free cash flow of up to £3.1 billion by 2027. Share price growth over the past year: 205% Marks & Spencer (LON: MKS) Other than being London-listed, possibly the only factor that connects Rolls-Royce and Marks & Spencer is that a new CEO has come in and delivered a solid turnaround strategy. Stuart Machin’s strategy is clearly delivering results, with the retailer returning to the FTSE 100 earlier this year. In H1 2023 results, revenue increased by 11% year-over-year to £6.13 billion, while net income rose by 25% to £208 million. Meanwhile, the profit margin — usually razor-thin in retail — improved from 3% to 3.4%. Much of this growth can be attributed to its strategic pivot. Underperforming shops were closed down, while those with untapped potential were refreshed — and the retailer invested huge sums into its web presence and online platform, targeting younger consumers. Christmas is generally a good time to be in retail, and further growth next year may be incoming. Share price growth over the past year: 115% 3i Group (LON: III) 3i Group is a popular FTSE 100 investment due to its status as a private equity and venture capital specialist. While Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust also offers some exposure toe privately held companies, 3i is one of the few simple ways for the average retail investor to gain access to this segment of the market. In H1 2023 results, and even despite the difficult macroeconomic environment, the company achieved a £1.67 billion total return, representing a 10% return on opening shareholders’ funds. For context, this compares to a 14% return worth £1.77 billion in the same half in the previous year — but the drop appears encouraging given the current environment. A highlight was portfolio company Action, a discount retailer focused on the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg), which is now the fastest growing non-food discount retailer in Europe. Share price growth over the past year: 76% Centrica (LON: CNA) While Centrica has fallen from its peak in September — partially due to analyst commentary — the company has made significant strides in 2023 that could see it in good stead in 2024. The electricity and gas supplier’s interim results saw adjusted operating profit rise to £2.1 billion compared to £1.3 billion in 2022, generating a £6.5 billion statutory operating profit compared to the £1.1 billion loss of a year prior. Its closing adjusted net cash was a strong £3.1 billion, allowing the company to up the dividend by 33% to 1.33p per share extended the share buyback programme to £450 million. Centrica is delivering its green-focused investment strategy with annualised investment building to between £600m and £800m until 2028, with an aim to deliver average portfolio post-tax unlevered returns of between 7% and 10%+. And it expects to maintain Return on Average Capital Employed (ROCE) of at least 20% through this investment horizon. Share price growth over the past year: 62% AB Foods (LON: ABF) AB Foods — owner of a variety of food brands alongside Primark — saw full-year pre-tax profit for its last financial year rise by 25% to £1.34 billion, driven by a 16% increase in revenue to £17 billion, £9 billion of which was derived from Primark. Accordingly, the FTSE 100 company delivered a full-year dividend of 60p per share, up from 43.7p — and still delivered one of the best capital returns on the index this year. It’s worth noting that AB Foods was facing, in the words of CEO George Weston — ‘very significant economic challenges caused in part by major geopolitical events. Looking back on the year, it is clear to me that the group performed extremely well and is as a result now well positioned for the year ahead.’ The company may be an attractive proposition in 2024 given Primark’s market position amid a cost-of-living crisis, alongside its diversification into multiple retail sectors. Share price growth over the past year: 50% Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  19. Gold, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Rolls-Royce and Coinbase may be the top investments to watch in 2024. These investments have been chosen for their success in 2023 amid recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Investment United States Nvidia Cryptocurrency Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? 1. Gold2. Dow Jones3. Nvidia4. Rolls-Royce5. Coinbase Going into 2024, investors may be hoping for less instability and calmer growth. Whether stocks, bonds or commodities, virtually every asset class has seen significant volatility, driven by geopolitical instability alongside uncertainty over both inflation and the monetary policy sufficient to rein it under control. Fortunately, the consensus seems to be forming that inflation will continue to fall, that interest rates have peaked, and that they will also start to slide downwards in 2024. However, if the past few years have taught UK investors anything, it’s that predictions are based on known criteria. And after Brexit, the Johnson landslide, the covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine War, Silicon Valley Bank, and the Truss mini-budget, it’s fair to say that investors will be on guard for the next ‘black swan.’ But while there may have been volatility, many investments have done very well in 2023, and may continue to do so in 2024. Five are listed below — but always remember that past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Top investments to watch Gold Gold has historically served as the reliable ‘safe haven’ asset and inflationary hedge during times of severe economic stress, and this trend continued reliably in 2023. For perspective, central banks purchased 1,136 tonnes of gold worth $70 billion in 2022, the highest amount since records began in 1950. This marks a notable departure from the trend of selling gold in previous decades, and the buying has continued in 2023. The appeal of gold lies in its characteristic as an asset that is not tied to any specific issuer or government, providing diversification for central banks away from other traditionally safe assets such as the US Dollar or US treasuries — and this is especially pertinent as the US debt ceiling crisis rumbles on. Gold has rocketed above $2,000/oz in 2023 and may continue to climb in 2024. Dow Jones The Dow Jones is well-known as the ‘blue chip’ US index, hosting 30 of the most prominent US stocks including Apple, Walmart and McDonalds. The index hit a record high today, rising above 37,100 points as investors cheered the more dovish tones set out by the Federal Reserve. While inflation scarring may take some time to heal — and with the caveat that even blue chips carry some risk — there’s a reason why Warren Buffett argued in 2021 that ‘I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America.’ For context, the Dow has risen by 54% over the past five years, including the pandemic mini-crash and all the increased geopolitical tensions since. Of course, this flight to quality may reverse should risk appetite return. Nvidia Nvidia shares have been on a dizzying rally this year to a $1.2 trillion valuation. The semiconductor champion is clearly one of the most popular stocks of 2023 — though of course, popularity does not mean it is the best investment available. The rally is a result of AI demand, spurred on by the release of the revolutionary ChatGPT. In Q3 results, Nvidia saw record revenue of $18.12 billion, up by 34% quarter-on-quarter, and by a whopping 206% compared to a year ago. A highlight was data centre revenue, which increased by 279% over the past year to $14.51 billion. Founder and CEO Jensen Huang enthuses that ‘NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off.’ Of course, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 63 and the US government imposed export bans on certain chips to China, there are some risk factors to consider. Rolls-Royce Up 205% year-to-date to over 300p, Rolls-Royce shares have been the star performer of the FTSE 100, after CEO Tufan Erginbilgic delivered a stunning turnaround in his first year in charge. For fairness, he came on board at a fortuitous time; soaring post-pandemic travel demand has increased flying hours, the Russia-Ukraine war has seen defence spending rise, and the rising political importance of energy independence — consider the modular nuclear reactors — are all macroeconomic catalysts for the business that were out of his hands. But the growth could be set to continue. With a slew of banking giants upgrading their targets in recent days, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Rolls to BB+, a step towards regaining its all-important BBB investment grade status, lost during the pandemic. For context, the FTSE 100 stalwart plans to deliver operating profit of as much as £2.8 billion and free cash flow of up to £3.1 billion by 2027. Coinbase Coinbase shares have risen by nearly 350% year-to-date after a disastrous 2022 saw much of the company’s value wiped out. For investors looking for exposure to the cryptocurrency asset class, but without taking ownership directly, the exchange could be attractive. Coinbase is the largest crypto exchange in the US and may be viewed as the ‘picks and shovels’ crypto stock. For context, Bitcoin — inarguably the most well-known cryptoasset — has risen by over 150% year-to-date, and BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — is revising its spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund to enable major banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to participate in the market more easily despite regulatory restrictions preventing them from keeping direct holdings. Naturally, Bitcoin is an unregulated asset that is viewed by many as both volatile and extremely high risk. Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  20. Vodafone, Phoenix Group, British American Tobacco, M and G, and Imperial Brands could be the five best FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch next month. These shares are currently the highest yielding on the index. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares FTSE 100 Dividend Dividend yield Share Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? 1. Vodafone2. Phoenix Group3. British American Tobacco4. M&G5. Imperial Brands The FTSE 100 has experienced somewhat of a volatile 2023 — falling to a recent low of 7,291 points on 27 October before recovering to 7,686 points today, up 1.75% year-to-date, and that excludes the £78.7 billion in dividends expected to be paid out this year. Of course, this volatility reflects wider macroeconomic concerns; while predictions are ten a penny, analysts are seemingly on the fence over whether the UK will enter recession, see a soft landing, or experience growth in 2024. But yesterday, the US Federal Reserve kept rates steady, maintaining the target range of between 5.25% and 5.5% — and policymakers have now forecast three rate cuts in 2024. While the S&P 500 responded positively, it’s worth noting that rate cuts do not always correspond with increased growth. This matters to the FTSE 100, because the UK’s largest companies derive the majority of their revenue from overseas — and the Bank of England has also voted to maintain the current 5.25% base rate. On the fiscal side, some analysts consider a spring election a distinct possibility — Capital Economics consider the Chancellor may have an extra £11 billion for tax cuts as a result of falling rates, but UK GDP fell by 0.3% in October and significant fiscal movement may not be possible after the recent NI cut. This leaves 2024 perhaps as uncertain as 2023, both for the FTSE 100, and for the currently highest yielding stocks on the index. As an example, housebuilder Persimmon was consistently one of the highest-yielding FTSE 100 stocks for several years and has now been demoted to the FTSE 250 in the face of the weaker housing market. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Top FTSE 100 dividend stocks to watch Vodafone (LON: VOD) Vodafone shares have fallen by 58% over the past five years, leaving the FTSE 100 telecoms operator with a double-digit dividend yield alongside a price-to-earnings ratio of just 2. While this may appear to be remarkable value at first glance, it’s worth noting this figure is based on asset sales in its last financial year which included the €8.61 billion generated from the sale of Vantage Towers. In recent half-year results, CEO Margherita Della Valle enthused that ‘during the first half of the year, we have delivered improved revenue growth in nearly all of our markets and have returned to growth in Germany in the second quarter.’ German growth could be particularly encouraging because Vodafone relies on the country for a significant chunk of its revenue — and 2021 legislation saw housing associations banned from bundling TV services with rental contracts, hurting Vodafone’s prospects. However, while the dividend remained unchanged, net debt increased by €2.9 billion to €36.2 billion, raising questions over the dividend’s sustainability. Dividend Yield: 11.9% Phoenix Group (LON: PHNX) This popular FTSE 100 insurance company may be tempting to value investors eyeing its sharp recovery since mid-October. For context, the company paid out 50.8p to investors last year — and the average analyst expectation is that this will increase to 52.6p in 2023. In H1 results, the FTSE 100 business reported cash generation of £898 million, above analyst predictions, allowing the company to boost its interim dividend by 5% to 26p per share. Given that Phoenix Group is now on track to generate £1.3 billion to £1.4 billion of cash generation for the full year, the dividend could now be safe — especially with its solvency II ratio of 180% at the top of the 140-180% management target. However, there are risks. Its bonds are likely falling sharply in value as rates continue to rise, and Phoenix also has a debt pile to manage. JP Morgan analysts have cut their price target from 655p to just 430p, and downgraded Phoenix to underweight, arguing that ‘the stock has too much debt leverage relative to peers, which creates numerous capital and growth risks in the long term.’ Dividend Yield: 10.5% British American Tobacco (LON: BATS) British American Tobacco is one of the world’s largest tobacco companies, boasting a brand portfolio including Lucky Strike, Dunhill, and Pall Mall. It’s also highly defensive given the addictive nature of nicotine. However, the company continues to face regulatory problems; the UK is planning to ban single use vapes and both the government and the opposition have confirmed support for a phased ban of traditional tobacco products. It also faces the wider fall in smoking worldwide, and a large debt pile as rates rise. However, the 29% share price dip year-to-date may be attractive to income investors. The company is investing heavily in alternative products including vapes, though most profits are still derived from traditional products. In half-year results, overall revenue rose by 4.4% driven by these ‘new categories,’ whose revenue rose by 26.6%. However, the company recently wrote off £25 billion in value due to falling outlook for its brands as cigarette sales struggle in the US. Dividend Yield: 10.1% M&G (LON: MNG) M&G is becoming a well-known FTSE 100 dividend share. The company plans to generate operating capital amounting to £2.5 billion by the end of 2024 and has now achieved more than 50% of this three-year target, 18 months in. Moreover, its shareholder Solvency II Coverage ratio remains at the top end of the target range at 199%, with no defaults in the first half of the year. And in half-year results, M&G increased its interim dividend by 5% to 6.5p per share. For context, it saw positive net client inflows of £700 million — remaining positive into a third consecutive year. M&G also saw operating capital generation rise by 17% year-over-year to £505 million, driving adjusted operating profit 31% higher to £390 million. CEO Andrea Rossi enthuses that the results ‘demonstrate the underlying strength of our business model, the resilience of our balance sheet… we have made progress against all three pillars of the strategy that we launched in March.’ Dividend Yield: 9.2% Imperial Brands (LON: IMB) Imperial Brands is the second FTSE 100 tobacco stock — and faces many of the same issues as BATS: regulatory clampdowns and changing consumer habits. However in recent results, BATS saw adjusted operating profit grow in line with its five year plan, including 10 basis points aggregate market share growth in its top-five priority combustible tobacco markets. Further, next generation product net revenue rose by 26% — and increased by a whopping 40% in Europe. Accordingly, the dividend was hiked by 4% alongside a 10% increase in share buybacks, leaving investors with total FY24 returns of £2.4 billion. Dividend Yield: 8.2% Trade and invest in over 17,000 UK, US and global shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading or investing in shares with us, or open an account to get started today. *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, October 2021). This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  21. With 2024 now in the sights of traders and investors, we look ahead to the moments that matter in the new year – from earnings season to elections and from global conflict to IPOs. Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 18 December 2023 12:23 2024 outlook The video talks about what to look out for in 2024 when it comes to trading. It explains that profits for companies have been better than expected this year, and it is predicted that this trend will continue next year, which will help keep stock prices steady. The video also mentions that the Federal Reserve, which is like the boss of the US economy, is planning to lower interest rates a few times in 2024. This, together with the strong US economy, should be good news for companies and their profits. In the UK, there will be a time called the ISA season starting from February where investors will need to consider different types of investments because interest rates will be going up. But even with these rising rates, stock prices are still expected to rise, and it might be a good idea to invest in companies that pay out a portion of their profits as dividends, like the top 100 companies in the FTSE stock market index. The US election Something else to keep an eye on is the US election happening in November 2024. President Donald Trump is running for re-election against Joe Biden, the current president. The video warns that this could cause some changes and instability in the US and global markets. The Ukraine and the Middle East conflicts There have also been conflicts in various parts of the world, including Ukraine and the Middle East. Although these conflicts have not had a big impact on the markets so far, they could cause some problems, especially when it comes to the price of oil. Interest rates have also been a hot topic over the past couple of years. Central banks around the world have been raising rates to control inflation. However, it seems that this trend may be reversing, with the Federal Reserve planning to lower rates in 2024. This is expected to be good news for the global economy and could result in more gains in stock prices. Initial Public Offerings Lastly, the video talks about Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), which are when a company sells its shares to the public for the first time. IPOs have been scarce in recent years, but there are a couple of companies, like Shine and Reddit, that might go public in 2024. This means there could be more opportunities to invest in new companies. Overall, the video gives an overview of important things to watch out for in 2024, like the earnings season, elections, global conflicts, interest rates, and potential IPOs. These factors could have an impact on trading and investing. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  22. 2023 has surprised many with fairly hefty gains for some stock indices, admittedly driven by an elite few big stocks. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 18 December 2023 12:57 There’s been a rise in gold to a new record high, driven in part by a relatively dovish Fed, pushing US 10yr yields down to levels not seen since the summer, but there’s also a rise in the recession risk unless central banks act outside their remit and start cutting rates to avoid a GDP contraction. IGTV caught up with IG’s Chris Beauchamp, Axel Rudolph, Nick Cawley and Richard Snow. After a look back at the year in the rear view mirror the discussion turned to what we should expect to be the main areas of interest in 2024. The discussion included an initial rise in stocks followed by a period of consolidation, the chances of a weaker USD continuing to drive gains in gold, the potential for gains in the crypto space, and how to trade the opportunity without any digital currency exposure. (AI Video Transcript) Global stock indices The year 2023 was full of surprises in the trading world. Global stock indices like the Dow and the DAX reached record highs, thanks to big gains from companies like Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple. However, the dollar didn't perform as well and 10-year Treasury yields hit levels we haven't seen since June. People were expecting the Fed to cut interest rates, but the big question was whether or not we could avoid a recession. It was a rollercoaster ride of a year that caught many off guard. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the DAX Looking ahead to 2024, we're hopeful for a brighter outlook, but we should proceed with caution. There's a chance things could get volatile due to events like geopolitical conflicts and surges in inflation. In 2023, there were some successful trades in equity markets like the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the DAX. Orange futures and sugar also performed well, although there were some unexpected ups and downs. The foreign exchange market had a battle between what people expected and what the Fed was saying about interest rates. Going into 2024, it's predicted that the dollar will continue to weaken, which will be a relief for many markets. People are also keeping an eye on the dollar yen pair, as there could be a change in policy from the Bank of Japan that could cause a downward move in the pair. The FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 hasn't been doing so great because major tech stocks are missing. Institutional flow has been weak and uncertainties about the UK economy and politics have scared some investors away. Cryptocurrencies and gold have shown potential for gains, but they've also been quite volatile. It all depends on things like ETF approvals and how the economy is doing. The oil markets The oil market has been worried about a possible recession and slow demand growth, but stability is expected in 2024 with potential supply cuts and changes. The Chinese economy was a letdown in 2023, with reopening efforts failing and concerns about deflation. We're not sure when things will turn around or if the Chinese government will provide stimulus. Chinese markets Chinese markets like the Hang Seng may see more declines and volatility in the coming months. Overall, it's important to be cautious and aware of the potential risks when looking at market performance and predictions for 2024. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  23. FTSE 100 rallies on softer inflation, DAX 40 and S&P 500 also grind higher still Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as UK inflations surprises to the downside. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 20 December 2023 11:46 FTSE 100 tries to reach its September peak The FTSE 100 is on track for its third straight day of gains and has overcome its 7,702 October high while on its way to its near three-month high at 7,725 as UK inflation comes in much lower than expected in November at 3.9% versus a forecast 4.4% and 4.6% in October. Core inflation dropped to 5.1% versus a forecast 5.6% and a previous reading of 5.7%. Above 7,725 beckons the September peak at 7,747. Potential slips should find support around Friday’s 7,670 high and at Tuesday’s 7,658 high. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 consolidates below last week’s all-time record high The DAX 40, which led the way to its record high at around the 17,000 mark last week, is taking a back seat and consolidates roughly between 16,700 and 16,800 as German GfK consumer confidence, though better than expected, remains at -25.1 and year-on-year PPI comes in worse than expected at -7.9%. The index now trades below the October-to-December uptrend line at 16,844 which, because of inverse polarity, acts as a resistance line. While it caps, this week’s low at 16,626 might be revisited. A fall through it would eye the July peak at 16,532. Resistance is seen around the 11 December high at 16,827 and at Friday’s 16,889 high ahead of last week’s peak at 17,003. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 grinds higher still and nears its all-time record high The S&P’s advance is ongoing with Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic’s comment over the lack of "urgency" to remove the restrictive stance being ignored by the financial markets which instead focused on Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s comments that the US was making good progress on inflation. Now that the November and mid-December 2021 highs at 4,743 to 4,752 have been bettered, the S&P 500 is approaching its all-time record high made in January 2022 at 4,817. Minor support below Monday’s 4,750 high can be spotted at last week’s 4,739 high. Further down lies the 4,694 March 2022 peak at 4,637. While the last few weeks’ lows at 4,544 to 4,537 underpin, the medium-term uptrend stays intact. Source: ProRealTime
  24. Brent crude oil price rise nears resistance while sugar bounces off nine-month low and corn slips Outlook on Brent crude oil, corn and sugar futures ahead of the festive season. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 20 December 2023 11:34 Brent crude oil on track for sixth consecutive day of gains Brent crude oil futures have risen for five straight days as Red Sea shipping concerns unnerve traders and are heading towards the October-to-December downtrend line at 80.62. Further up meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 81.64 which may also act as resistance. Support below the 79.18 early November low is seen around the 14 December high at 77.44. Source:ProRealTime Corn price slips towards three-year low Front month corn futures are slipping back towards their November three-year low at 471 as Brazil pulls ahead of the US as the biggest supplier of the commodity to China. A fall through 471 would engage the June 2019 high at 466.7 and mean that the major support zone which has held since August, has finally given way. Minor resistance above the 13 December low at 480 can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 488.69. Source:ProRealTime Sugar #11 recovers from nine-month low Front month sugar futures prices plummeted from their 12-year high by over 25% over the past few weeks as supply concerns ease, dropping to 20.56, a nine-month low, before trying to regain some lost ground. Short-covering is taking the futures back to Friday’s low at 21.38. While Friday’s high at 22.14 isn’t overcome, though, the steep downtrend remains intact with the psychological 20.00 mark remaining in sight. Source:ProRealTime
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