MongiIG
-
Posts
9,899 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
41
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Community Tutorials
Store
Posts posted by MongiIG
-
-
-
For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.
Today’s coverage:
Indices: APAC markets up as Asia benefits from drop in oil prices from Saudi, NKY best performer for a second day. Europe expected to open mixed. US tech opens as best performers on 24-hr mkts
Equities: Watching RACE as Italy negotiates a deal to shield supercars from engine ban. Earnings DPH
FX: Watching central bank mtgs this week - AUD Tuesday, CAD Wednesday & EUR Thursday. Meanwhile USD sees small bounce off 1mth lows after Friday’s slump following that poor US jobs data
Commods: Oil 2nd day in a row of losses as demand fears return. Gold retreats from Friday’s 6wk high. Lumber 5wk high
-
KEY TALKING POINTS:
So after all that wait, the August NFP day is finally here. Traders have likely had this date marked in the calendar for several weeks now as the path of asset tapering is largely dependent on a strong jobs market, given that inflation had hit its target a few months ago.
After what looked like a strong start to the year, new payrolls fell well below expectations in April and May as the latest wave of the pandemic was hitting hard, and so analysts were left wondering when the Fed would start to consider reducing its net asset purchases given rising inflation concerns. And just as the summer got underway we got some comments from Fed members confirming that the timeline for tapering would be dependent on the jobs market, and so the NFP became the figure to watch for every month.
The data has been on a solid path since June so far, and that’s why a lot is riding on today’s figure, as a strong reding would likely mean asset tapering would start before year-end, rather than early 2022, allowing for a greater gap in time before interest rate hikes are considered.
But the latest ADP figure has caused some concern about the reading later today despite it having little predictive power over the NFP reading. But it does allow for markets to gauge investor positioning prior to the release, and given yesterday’s selloff in the US Dollar, expectations are pretty bearish going into the announcement, and so a figure above 700K is likely to be USD positive.
USD/JPY: the pair has been playing nicely into the symmetrical pattern I pointed out last week although I do admit I would have liked to see a clearer direction by now. I was hoping for a break above 110.5 to then reverse towards 108.50 by this week, but the pair seems to be taking longer than previously to consolidate the pattern. A stronger Dollar later today may see the rise to 110.50 happen by close of business and, therefore, set up the scene nicely for a reversal early next week, but so far USD/JPY seems to be anchored around the 110.00 mark, which is roughly where it was last time I wrote about it last Thursday.
USD/JPY DAILY CHART
USD/CAD: the pair hasn’t been able to garner much momentum since it came back down to the 1.26 mark after the attempted breakout on the 19th of August and yesterday’s pullback seems slightly overextended going into today’s session. There is a key support close by (127.2% Fib at 1.2496) where the 200-day SMA is converging, followed by the 1.24 mark where the 100-day SMA is converging and so I expect sellers to have a tough time breaking below this area. On the upside, both the RSI and the stochastic are showing plenty of room for a push higher but the pair will need to hold above 1.2660 before further bullish momentum may be considered.
USD/CAD DAILY CHART
EUR/USD: the pair has staged an impressive rebound over the last two weeks and is now back above 1.1875 for the first time since the beginning of August. The aim for buyers will be to break above 1.19 but the bullish run does seem slightly overextended at this point and so I wouldn’t be surprised if that level acts as more of a barrier in the short term. A pullback is likely to bring the pair back towards the 1.18 mark at which point the 50-day SMA is likely to offer some short-term support.
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
Learn more about the stock market basics here or download our free trading guides.
Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst. 3 September 2021. DaliyFX
-
What is the NFP?
The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It represents the number of jobs added, excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees and employees of nonprofit organizations.
NFP releases generally cause large movements in the forex market. The NFP data is normally released on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM ET. This article will explain the role NFPs play in economics and how to apply NFP release data to a forex trading strategy.
-
On 02/09/2021 at 00:18, Jabroni8 said:
Hello,
Does anyone know if it's possible to have a newsfeed in PRT?
Thanks
Hi @Jabroni8,
Only on the IG web platform.
All the best - MongiIG
-
Early Morning Call - 3 September
Volatility remains low as Wall St climbs to more new record highs. NKY climbs 2% as Japan PM resigns. USD 1mth low ahead of US jobs data.
https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/early-morning-call---3-september-210903
This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
-
For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.
Today’s coverage:
Indices: NKY up 2% after Japan PM Suga resigns. HSI & China down on more dire China data. Records for SPX & NDAQ, Europe expected up at the start
FX: USD 1mth low ahead of NFP data. Risk event analysis for next week – AUDNZD around RBA rate decision
Equities: HPE earnings beat for Q3 and positive outlook for FY. SPCE grounded on reports of flight violations
Commods: Lumber jumps on delivery concerns - hurricane Ida, which also boost long for oil
-
Hello,
Your questions are being answered - IG community
.thumb.jpg.e7075b7fe69e932a0fb509c2f6f4414f.jpg)
Thank you all for your contributions and asking questions to the 'Trade against customer' forum. We wanted to let you know we have picked up questions from this forum and we thought it was best for Adam Blemings, IG’s Head of trading, to address them in a webinar.We would love to see you there, please feel free to attend. The webinar is taking place on Monday 6th September 2021 (10am -11am BST). To sign up please use the following link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3244908820136741133All the best,IG community team
-
1
-
-
Early Morning Call - 2 September
As Volatility hits 3-week lows markets awaiting tomorrow's non-farm payrolls. IGTV's Jeremy Naylor looks at the USD after weak ADP. BDEV earnings unimpressive despite a dividend hike.
https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/early-morning-call---2-september-210902
This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
-
-
For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.
Today’s coverage:
Indices: US techs win again sending NDAQ to another record high. Asia market caution as China slows. Europe expected lower
FX: USD near 1mth low after disappointing ADP – focus now on NFP tomorrow. AUD little moved despite record Aussie trade surplus
Equities: AAPL opens app makers payment method. Earnings today: BDEV HPE AVGO
Commods: Oil near Wednesday lows as OPEC+ adds oil, as expected
-
Hope
What does 'hope' mean in trading?
Hope in trading is a feeling of expectation and is often linked to optimism, confidence or experience. While all traders need to have some hope when they open positions, there can be downsides of excessive optimism. For example, a trader might hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
A study by Nofsinger revealed that traders find it difficult to cut losses because they view it as an admission of defeat. Traders hope that the asset will recover so they won't have to face the realisation that it may have been a bad decision to open the position. In fact, our data shows 50% of traders held on to their losing positions for longer and, as the graph below demonstrates, these losses were far greater than their gains.
Average profit and loss in pounds
Hope can also determine how frequently an individual trades and how much they risk. For example, Germain, Rousseau and Van state that 'optimistic traders purchase more or sell smaller quantities, whereas pessimistic traders sell more or purchase smaller quantities than if they were realistic.
How can traders prevent hope from impacting their decisions?
One way you can prevent hope from impacting your decisions is to set out a number of goals – possibly in a trading log or diary – for your time on the markets. By setting goals, you know exactly what you should be hoping for from your trading, which means that you could be less inclined to let losses run out of frustration.
Equally, a set of goals can help to manage expectations, so you could be more inclined to be happy with what you have earned. This could prevent greed getting the better of you and stop you from opening new trades in the hope of earning more.
Things to keep in mind...
-
38 minutes ago, Rayreed said:
Hi, can anyone let me know how long it takes for a deposit to be approved. I sent it on Monday but when it arrived they said it came from a 3rd party even though its from my bank account. I have sent the transfer notification and a bank statement both of which show my name and address but all I have been told is its in a queue waiting to be reviewed. I followed up on the help email but have not had a reply
Hi @Rayreed
Bank deposits Execution Time : 1-3 business day. Please note that on Monday 30th August 2021, it was a Summer Bank Holiday (UK Public holiday).
For more information on deposits, you can open the blog below:
All the best - MongiIG
-
Early Morning Call - 1 September 2021
Markets end August down, but the month market the seventh straight month of gains. Good earnings out of Pernod Ricard. Waiting on US private payrolls - ADP.
https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/early-morning-call---1-september-2021-210901
This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
-
1 minute ago, Nancyantonios said:
Thank you for sharing, it is an eye opener. I also live in the UK and start trading this year.
regards,
Nancy
All the best with your trading.
MongiIG
-
1
-
-
16 hours ago, jandj said:
I’ve just started using the IG platform and am having fun with it, after a week or so of playing with it. I’ve opened two accounts and have just opened ten positions.
I’d thought as a COMPLETE newbie, I’d share my experiences here in “real time”, which will hopefully be amusing/informative for some of you. I welcome comments, but no flames, please!
Background:
I inherited some money a couple of years ago and stuck it all in a savings account. Fed up with the paltry interest rate, I decided to take a proportion of it and invest it in shares.
I set a conservative goal, which is to make 6% return in 12 months through a mixture of 50% investments and active 50% active trading. On the latter, I’m prepared to risk 20%, hope to double (i.e., 5:1).
At the end of the 12 months, I’ll look at my two accounts’ performance and if necessary, revise my goals.
I have ten years’ experience working full-time in hedge fund risk, but very little of their trading strategies is relevant to me – I don’t neither the money nor the experience required to do anything like that.
The main indicators I look at are MA, volatility and volume. Volatility also dictates my stops (so I can ride the troughs). The limits are all set to 5 times the stop.
Here are the rules I set myself before starting:
- Steer clear of low volume stocks.
- No shorting (or equivalent).
- Only trade stocks where I believe I understand the underlying market sector and think that it’s a growing one.
- Try to trade more than one stock in a sector, or trade ETFs.
- Turn every ****-up into a lesson.
- Don’t get all “Rorschach” when looking at charts.
- Listen to everyone and listen to no-one.
- Trade no more than 1 hour a day. Research no less than one hour a day.
- Dampen the natural volatility in my mood fluctuations (less elation, less depression. – almost the definition of hedging)
Day 0: I picked some stocks out of a hat (well, almost: Two of them were tips from Motley Fool, two were "pet" companies I believe in, which have been growing for years, and the rest were tech stocks involved in areas that I believe will have a growing demand in the coming year.
Day 1: A good day, I was .05% up in both accounts! Multiply by 250 days in the fiscal year, (I’m not compounding) that’s 12.5 %! Cool!
Lesson learned: None.
Day2: A bad day, I did the last of my weekly spread bets (which had a big spread), so I’m now a few hundred pounds down. The Dow is down, everything is down.
Lessons I need to learn:
1. Patience. Re-Read what I wrote down when I opened the position – the time frame for exit was months, not days or hours.
2. Don’t watch the weather, study the climate (I live in the UK, where weather-watching is a National trait).
3. Don’t buy at the market.
Hi @jandj
Thank you for sharing this information and your insights are beneficial to help others as well.
All the best - MongiIG
-
-
For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.
Today’s coverage:
Indices: Close out August with another month of gains winning streak continues (despite Wall St weaker on the day) as Europe expected to open higher - MCX another record high
FX: EURGBP 5wk high ahead of EZ/UK data. Watching GBPUSD death cross technical set up. AUDUSD little changed at 3wk high as Aus GDP better than forecast. USDJPY near 3wk high
Equities: Earnings expected today from SMWH JSG EPA
Commods: OPEC+ expected to stick to output despite disrupted supply from hurricane Ida and Biden pressure to supply more to keep pump prices down. Nickel holds Tuesday’s jump
-
Greed
What does 'greed' mean in trading?
Greed in trading is the impulse to act in irrational ways in pursuit of excessive gain. It manifests itself when a trader gets overenthusiastic and trades beyond their means – opening more positions than usual or holding on to positions for too long because they are chasing an even greater gain. In doing so, they might incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit they have already made.
Greed has a lot to do with how often an individual trades, or equally, if a trader thinks that they should be trading more. A study by Graham, Harvey and Huang found that, when measuring a trader's confidence levels, a small gain in their confidence levels resulted in a similar increase in their trading frequency. This tallies with IG's survey, which found that an average of 42% of respondents felt that they should invest or trade more with a lack of knowledge or confidence likely to be holding them back.
However, while traders might feel confident enough in their abilities to trade more, research by Park, Bin Gu, Kumar and Raghunathan has found that those who trade more often might actually achieve lower realised returns.
How can traders prevent greed?
You can prevent greed from affecting your positions by becoming familiar with risk management strategies. Risk management strategies can help you to understand the risks associated with trading with leverage and why you shouldn't overexpose yourself to the markets.
One of the most effective ways to manage risk is to use a risk-to-reward ratio, which compares the potential loss to the potential gain for each trade you open.
An example of a risk-to-reward ratio would be if you placed a £300 trade that had the potential to realise a £600 profit. In this scenario, the risk-to-reward ratio would be 1:2 as you stand to gain twice as much as you stand to lose should your predictions be correct.
Things to keep in mind...
-
On 30/08/2021 at 04:43, Michael053 said:
Most markets would not open well after trading has begun?
Hi @Michael053
The first hour tends to be the most volatile, providing the most opportunity (and potentially the most risk).
All the best - MongiIG
-
Eurozone inflation ahead of ECB next week
Eurozone inflation big and widespread but the ECB is unlikely to be persuaded by the uptick in prices.
https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/eurozone-inflation-ahead-of-ecb-next-week-210831
-
On 29/08/2021 at 01:10, HZia said:
Any news on this? Can I get some sort of data subscription? I am willing to pay some fee.
Hi @HZia
Please reach out to helpdesk.uk@ig.com, the IT team will be able to look into your query and advise if the limit can be increased on historical data.
All the best - MongiIG -
-
Early Morning Call 31 August
Europe expected to open up after more record highs on Wall Street. IGTV's Jeremy Naylor looks at the charts.
https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/early-morning-call-31-august-210831
This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
.jpg.a174699dffcd8c79d2173e52d99b19fc.jpg)
Stock Request: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
Hi @Richard85
When making a stock request please kindly give the following information from the link below
All the best - MongiIG