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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. Dax races up having cleared resistance at the 100 and 200 MA's. Resistance ahead at the 23.6 Fib level and further ahead at the down trend line. Note the four perfect touches on the bottom of the enlarged pennant (or asymmetric triangle, call it what you like).  Some would have you believe MA's can't act as support and resistance and that you can ignore any bar that doesn't fit your bias, nonsense of coarse.

     

    GER30(£)H10401.pngGER30(£)Daily0401.png


  2. Has consolidated in a tight (for bitcoin) range, not really surprised that the recent surge up was only off the back of a WSJ news report (flighty) but there you go. The volume is back to pre-holiday highs and the new range is well marked. Waiting for a break up to retest the 23.6% Fib (which is also the 61.8% Fib for the move down) or back down to the 50%.

     

    BTCUSDH40301.png

     

     

     

     


  3. The particular point I was trying to make was that unless the time-frames are aligned any trade will always be fighting against the other time-frames which is precisely what you do and why you are needing a "100 tick tolerance due to dax volatility" to make 30 ticks. This is also why you keep changing your 'system', because there is no single system that will work. When market conditions change that needs to be recognised and catered for, that is a most important message and the reason for most of my posts, to highlight changing market conditions. When a chart has converted to trending it really doesn't matter about the 'set up', just get in at a sensible place. 

     

    Continually going long in a downtrend or down channel or even in a range will never work and posting occasional and random results in an attempt to prove otherwise won't cut it. The other point I was trying to make was the essential need to precisely define the risk of a trade, a 100 tick tolerance is neither precise nor defined. It's fine to go long off the bottom of a clearly defined down channel or range because the risk (the stop level) is well defined, you can see it, it's right there, no need for 100 tick tolerance, if price reverses back up off it that's your entry and you are only risking 10 - 20 tick at most and the target is usually just as obvious. But when the 'support level' covers 170 ticks you are really just flipping a coin with a nonsensical risk reward ratio. 


  4. As I said this morning this is an 'important day for the dax'. On the 1 hour chart price has been hammering away at the 100 ema and 4 hour resistance level (confluence) for 7 hours now and so far it's still holding.

     

    Price closed below the 100 ma on the daily chart on the 29/12 and then put in a new low before returning to retest the 100, so now the time frames are out of alignment. For the last couple of days the daily and 1 hour price has been below their 100 ma while the 5 min and 1 min have been for the most part have been above. To get serious movement they need to align, that way all traders no matter their time frame agree on general direction. At the moment they are in conflict and have bought price to a standstill. The daily chart is identical now as it was this morning, it doesn't matter which way it breaks but when it does it should hopefully lead to a few days at least of trending.

     

    Looks like breaking now as I am about to post this, will be interesting to see what the daily close looks like.

     

     


  5. Oh dear, looks like dax is failing at the 100 ema, that's clearly an important level.

     

    The lines on my charts are support and resistance levels, as well I will often include Fibonacci retracement levels if relevant because they can also act as support  and resistance levels.

     

    Here is the code to make it easier for you,

     

    Green dotted - hourly.

    Yellow dotted - 4 hourly.

    Orange line - daily.

    Red line - weekly.

    Dark red line - monthly.

     

    I'm surprised you didn't link any of the many videos I have posted on drawing support and resistance levels over the last near two years.

    As I say 'schoolboy level'.

     

     

     


  6. This will also surprise you but, believe it or not, in the past when posting I would often be subjected to schoolboy level trolling that could get very tiresome. Maybe I'll try again for the new year and see how it goes.

     

    As I posted in elle's https://community.ig.com/t5/FX-and-Cryptocurrency/EUR-USD-idea/m-p/18426#M2344  thread I think this pair will wait for the big data out tomorrow before deciding where to go from here.


  7. Not very grateful for the lesson are you. Then you immediately ask for another. It may surprise you but moving averages ARE indicators, if that's all you need then that's all you need. Very pleased for you that you have finally worked out how to use a volume indicator, which (to answer your last question) is just the thing to tell you if volume is low.


  8. Always a pleasure to teach as I know you struggle so. Below is this mornings 1 minute chart of the dax.

     

    Notice the 8:00 am bar (vertical red line) breaks the 100 ema and then the 200 ema on the next bar, that tells us the price action is turning bearish and we wouldn't wont to be going long would we. Price then raced down confirming our bearish bias before returning to retest the 100 ema at the second vertical red line (9:30) and giving us a great entry for a short.

    Price continued down for 85 odd ticks but notice that large red bear bar looks like an exhaustion bar so mid way back up not a bad place to exit. 

     

    Hope this helps. 

     

     

    xma4.png


  9. Bitcoin gapped on market open and normally the gap would get filled but bitcoin has never behaved normally and so gaps routinely don't get filled for days or weeks after if ever (unfinished auction). Possible retest of the 50% Fib more likely before a retest of the 38.2% level?

     

    1 hour chart.

     

    BTCUSDH10101.png

     

     


  10. Bitcoin likely to gap down on IG market open 9 pm, BitMEX BTCUSD Futures currently around 13200. GDAX spot currently has Bitcoin at 13210.

     

    BTCUSD has been keeping faith with Fib retracement levels from the big move up from 12/11/17 to 17/12/17, particularly 23.6%, 50% and 61.8%.

    50% is at 12620. See 4 hour chart at holiday close bottom of page.

     

    xma3.PNG

     

     

    xma1.PNGxma2.png


  11. ,    who wrote "Don't waste your money and time buying books" in response to my post further down. As if someone who has had a well documented 26 year career working for large financial institutions is really going to be just a "charlatan". If he was a charlatan he would not have lasted 5 minutes at either Citibank or Credit  Suisse or rise in both to hold vice president of department positions. Charlatans do exist but are usually just loud na-sayers on forums (you know the type, everything is rubbish except what I do). 

     

    After 16 years as a trader for some of the largest institutions in both New York and London Greg Michalowski then worked for 10 years on the brokerage side thus giving vast insight into trading from both sides of the fence. He has seen first hand what works and from the brokerage side saw the reasons why many traders fail. Fortunately he has put much of what he has learned into this book as well as detailing the basic concepts that work best.

     

    His book is one of the highest reader rated trading books on Amazon but as oilfxpro, who strangely doesn't seem to have ever posted on oil or Fx in all the time he's been on the forum?, has told us in the past, he only "reads the one star reviews" to judge a book so small surprise he doesn't look at any of them.

     

    Regarding mentors the first difficulty is finding someone who is actually able to help your own development rather than just pass on a system that may work for them but may not work for you. You could end up spending a lot of money for not very much in way of return. I follow many mentors on twitter and was a bit shocked when one said he was not even sure these skills are 'transferable', I was even more shocked when two others agreed with him.

     

     

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