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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. Hi 

    Good analysis and makes perfect sense, but remember, the market will never make sense. The classic tale of a trend line, needs 3 touches to confirm, but by 5 touches it becomes a trap. Why? Because we think the market is a non living entity but it really is a meme. We all enter the market to take money off some body else without thinking why those other people are in the market - they are trying to take money off you. The reality is that most have better resources and more money than us. The best strategy is not to try to predict but to react and follow.

     

    Below is an update of my chart from yesterday, the breakout panned out, fine - it doesn't matter one way or the other - but as it did break so then look for a place to get aboard short and set a reasonable target, that's it.

     

    


  2. On the daily chart it's easy to see the bulls were in control of the 6100 level and have been since mid March. That would be a great level to get long if price retraced that far again but there was real urgency and they didn't wait and succeeded in getting the bar close above the 6185 weekly support/resistance level.  

    Any short from higher up could only have been seen as a scalp on the retracement back down, possibly to retest  6100 - 6050 but the bulls were always going to step in at some point.

    As per usual, it doesn't pay to try to predict, but try to react. No one can out think the market, if something looks like it should happen it's probably a trap.

     

    

     

     


  3. Yes, that was difficult. Price having failed to get back in range at 3-5 AM continued down, stalled at the 6185 then smashed it. The move back up from 6150 was a strong bull move rather than just a bear profit taking pullback. On the smaller time frames it looked for a while the bears might get continuation off the 1685 but not to be.

     

    Bulls now trying to get a strong opening bar in.

     

    Today

    12:45 ECB rate decision.

    13:30 ECB Presser.

    Tomorrow US NFP. 

     

    


  4. Hi  Looks like FTSE followed GBP down on the surprise Brexit poll yesterday afternoon. Both becoming increasingly volatile as the referendum gets closer. You may well be right on a big move down but be aware of a big weekly PRT support level that stretches back to 2014 at 6180.

     

    


  5. Article by Forex Live editor Adam Button. "A paradigm shift is underway on Deficits". A look at how the world is going to deal with debt, low interest rates and low growth.

    Includes a link to a 30 min video interview with Ray Dalio by Bloomberg with insight into the current climate and future of national debt, QE, investing and portfolios.

    http://news.forexlive.com/!/a-paradigm-shift-is-under-way-on-deficits-20160528

     

    Start you off with a quote from Bill Gross.

     

    

     

     

     


  6. Yes, the bulls failed to bounce off 1615 though they are attempting a re-test. Interesting to note the aspects of the move through 1615 which indicate it is not a stop run.

    a) a very powerful bar down and weak bars back up,

    b) hesitancy at the level on the way back up indicating bear control of 1615,

    c) stop runs are not usually over 20 pip.

     

    If the bulls fail to recapture 1615 then a re-test of the big monthly support level at 1480 is possible, it is historically significant and was the launch level for the recent highs.

     

    

     

     

     

     


  7. Will be interesting to see how news this afternoon affects this pair. I think the bears pulled a major move pushing this below the PRT weekly support now resistance level at 11205 after a 4 day battle 19th to 24th and now trying to beat back a re-test from yesterday afternoon. The 11200 has proved significant for a while now (since Feb) and I think is key to future direction, currently the bears control it.


  8. That is a good looking liquidity block (lasting a week May 12 - 19th) that your support zone is based on and looking further back a very significant level for for quite a few major moves in the past. Silver should be more resilient to news generated whipsaw than gold as it has greater industrial uses. Good one to keep an eye on.


  9.  Sets a new cable conundrum; 'If no June US rate hike and no Brexit, how high can cable go?'

     

    If you consider Brexit polls being the main drag on cable over the last 6 months cable could well try for a re-test of monthly resistance at just above 15800.

    Weekly chart:

     

    

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