Caseynotes

All things fraud. Dan Davis interview, former regulatory economist at BoE and author of 'Lying For Money'. http://www.allthingsrisk.co.uk/2018/08/20/ep-89-dan-davies-lying-for-money/ We get into the various topics covered in the book including: The concept of the “optimum level of fraud” in and economy ? this sounds counter-intuitive but because both fraud and economic growth depend on trust, there will always be a level of fraud in an advanced economy; The types and characteristics of fraud; The mechanics of different types of fraud, including lots of examples; Rogue traders; Why frauds have a “snowball effect”; The role of primal, human emotions in fraud Much more 1 hour 10 minutes.

Large speculators are now net short the Euro and all the 'risk on' currencies as USD buying continues though interestingly gold and the Swiss franc are at 'bearish extremes'. Commodities increasingly 'out of favour'. https://www.marketsnow.com/analysis/cot-report-speculators-now-short-the-euro

Dow, Dax and FTSE look well positioned for a push higher today. 1 hour charts;

The Dax and FTSE failed to keep step with the Dow yesterday and remain near the lows of their recent ranges while the Dow looks to break out of the top on it's own, the lack of EU and UK follow on is presumably the result of the Turkey situation and the large exposure of Euro banks. With the Dow being a leading index and that link temporarily broken the short term direction for the Dax and FTSE is not clear. Weekly charts;

Fair point @Medusa123, the new KOs are still under development and many will be waiting for the proposed 'inner stop loss' before taking them up. As things are at the moment they are a 'knock out' option as opposed to a 'knock in' option ( see the link in the thread 'Options Trading' ) and so the guaranteed stop loss is a long distance from the entry level, you can manually close out at any time but without an added adjustable stop means the trade needs to be closely monitored.

After yesterday's London session dive the Dow has regained Tuesday's levels with the Nikkei not far behind so looking for similar progression in the Dax and FTSE in this morning's session.

Lack of enthusiasm to have a real go at the 4 hr (yellow) resistance levels in the indices charts, current picture looks like a retest of the 4 hr support levels most likely this morning. 4 hour charts;

@PandaFace I would have said that until the inner stop loss arrives you'll want to put in a price level alert in at a nominated stop loss position then close manually once the alert has triggered ... but KO's don't seem to have an alert function.

Knowing the EU we should consider the flip side to the rolling 3 month trial is that it also gives ESMA the opportunity to see what loopholes and work arounds the brokers come up with and then close them down with amendments to their regulations.

Looking like they have found support and as with the Nikkei are likely this morning to explore higher for resistance. Daily charts;

New article and video explaining how to use the ATR indicator from Rayner Teo; https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/atr-indicator/

USD well into positive territory with large speculators and the euro is about to go negative joining JPY, GBP, CHF and developed market commodities. And judging recent events EMs not far behind.

All gaped down after the weekend and remain unfilled, are waiting now for the London open to give some direction. Daily charts;

Interesting question Ajg, presumably there is the tax benefits of an options type instrument on a spread betting platform instead of the CFD platform. And having an adjustable stop feature (proposed) on an options intrument. A professional account wouldn't have the negative equity protection.

Big 350 point drop in the Nikkei seems to be pulling all else down though not to the same degree. Nikkei trying to keep in touch with support level 22344 but there is a big gap down if loses it's grip. FTSE resting on solid support while Dax and Dow are still looking.

I think the movable 2nd stop proposed feature will make a big difference to the appeal factor. My demo £1,500 profit has turned, overnight, into a £400 loss.

Interesting stats from the demo re margin requirement, account size and the much too big bet size (£50/point).

So far so good on the £10,000 demo ?

Yeah, was just looking at your pic, what did you click to bring that up? a year seems somewhat excessive. It also says the min size is 1 but it is 0.5 though that is on demo. Forgot to mention the with the Dow at £0.5 min bet size the KO was 270 points.

They all seem to have a min bet size of £0.50 even Dow.

So the expiry on the Dax is 10 days (look at top left of chart next to chart name). And being a fixed stop the deal ticket will be rejected if you choose too large a bet size for your account size (margin already set). The info popup after place a trade requires speed reading though if you click on it it will stay up.

On the new platform under fx on the left hand side bar.

Dow hoping for support off 25500 while Dax looks to have rebounded off the recent trend line. FTSE climbing into stacked resistance levels while Nikkei trying for another leg back up to 22789. 4 hour charts;

HI @Kazeko, I don't trade the Nasdaq but included the post on it a week ago as it made an all time high and many think it is something of a leading indicator for indices. If I were a long-term trader (which I'm not) I wouldn't be trying to pick the highs. The uptrend prevails and with no resistance levels ahead where the bears might ambush price dip buying is the only play until the bears have shown they have taken control. I look at the Dow every morning as it is often a leading indicator for the other global indices then I look at the Dax as that is the one I'm going to trade. If the dow looks bullish I would be looking for similar signs in the dax but more importantly I am looking for price to move from one support/resistance level to the next on an intraday basis. This morning there were mixed signals but if you look at yesterday's dax post price was moving up off clear support and the target was also clear and that was indeed how the day transpired. So I don't really try to make predictions, basically I'm looking for clear direction with a clear target then I'm looking for an opportunity to jump aboard.

The Dow managed to break up into some clear space yesterday and Trump talking up GDP 'may be in the 5's next quarter'. FTSE, Dax and Nikkei still have some resistance overhead. Interesting weekly charts;