Caseynotes

Yes very much a data driven day today @TrendFollower. The ADP US jobs data came in really high but just after the US open the US manu PMI came in at a big miss 54.1 verse the 57.7 expected and though still a positive number the market didn't like it. The jobs data is a lagging indicator while the PMI is a leading indicator so the PMI miss took priority and the 3 pm bar gapped down on the news driven initially by the algos. Price seems to have stabilised since the initial reaction. 1 hour Dow chart;

Big beat on the ADP US employment change. + 271k verses + 180k expected (previous 157k). Bodes well for tomorrows NFP which is also expected at around 180k (previous 155k).

On the daily chart the 'Trade of the Week' Dow short looks perfectly reasonable but that hourly chart looks very indecisive in comparison. TotW; Dow Short: Entry 22914. SL 23535. Was called mid day yesterday so the retest of resistance later in the day would have caused a bit of concern but Apple saved the day 😊. Price now back around the entry level at the mo but I would prefer to see the prior low at 22812 taken out first (yellow dash on 1 hour chart is a 4 hour chart support level so not shown on daily chart) . Anyone taken this?

The Apple news late yesterday (big drop in expected revenue due to China slowdown) causing a bit of a fire storm across the markets with usdjpy most affected seems to be contained within the indices now. Clear short term targets for Dow, Dax and Ftse once the mornings direction is decided. ADP NFP today 1:15 pm may give a hint to tomorrow's NFP figure, also US manu PMI at 3:00 pm expected to be 57.7.

@Kodiak, that is an interesting chart and bitcoin does seem to be in tune with Awesome (think colour of bars rather than above/below zero) and with the divergence as well . Not supposing a massive retracement but quite possible that there is room to the upside. Is interesting to see the degree to which all cryptos are big long with IG clients atm. You need to click on each one to find the approx number of clients long. Not always a contrarian indicator. @cryptotrader mentioned a possible crypto rally just recent in another thread.

Review of the COT data of the Dow last updated 21/12/18 shows large speculators retaining net longs in similar respect to the COT chart of the 14/12/18 posted above in this thread. In the chart below comparing the Feb decline verses this recent decline it's interesting there was no real washout this time round and was much more controlled suggesting less panic and more a case of managing potential high risk over the holiday break. Next COT snapshot will be after close on Friday which is also a NFP day.

Dax and Ftse remain in step after the morning session which saw a strong 8 AM 1 hour push down which was immediately countered. Dax blocked from upward continuation by prior support turned resistance at 10559. Much will depend on the US open at 2:30 PM. 1 hour charts;

Hi Neil, not sure if you should be too worried about the latency, many people are using a VPN and the ping is still only in milliseconds.

All 4 looking very similar in set up and waiting for a sign as to direction for the day. Overnight repeat of poor China manu prod figures looks to have caused an initial drop but Dow and Dax holding up on the European open and so now waiting for the London open. Dow poised on the old support level 23110 which failed to act as resistance during the holiday period rally. Daily charts.

That's not necessarily the case, often just the opposite in fact for a number of reasons. Firstly, right at the start Cred credits those he has learnt from and acknowledges that their contributions have aided his own development, it follows that some people just want to give something back. Successful traders are not made or born but make themselves but even so cannot do it in isolation, everyone has had some help along the way. The best traders are employed by institutions and sit at a desk alongside other traders swapping info and ideas all day long. New traders at a institution's trading desk will get a mentor whether they want one or not. Also there is a benefit to setting principles and concepts down on paper which helps to order it in your own mind and helps to make sense of it all. So in affect the work is for your own benefit firstly and once completed in a precise and condensed form is easily distributed if one wishes but that is secondary. The scientific community takes a concept and alters it in some way to make it better with the expectation someone else will come along and improve it further still. Some of the concepts in Cred's study I first saw a decade ago in forum posts by ICT that have evolved and been improved by the other guys along the way. So in many respects Cred's study is a continuation rather than an isolated effort. Ultimately though it may just be yet another study on trading and technical analysis but of the many hundreds I have browsed this one is well put together, obviously aimed at the beginner to intermediate level it's very informative and well worth the time taken to review it. As he states himself it would be unwise to try to incorporate all of it into one trading style but I doubt anyone can say they got nothing from it. It is also important to note that Cred is happily giving this away for free. The concepts are rational and reasonable, I don't recall anything I completely rejected and it's very clear and concise but of course remains very much take it or leave it.

Lol @TrendFollower, no I don't know him personally but have known of him long enough to know he is actually a successful trader. If you look through the work you will appreciate it is well reasoned and rational. In fact I know of most of the traders he gives a 'shout out' to that have lead to his development and success and so recognise many of the concepts within the study and have seen how those concepts have developed over many years with help from Michael Huddleston (I am ICT) through Tom Dante (Trader Dante) and Will Hunting (wmd4x) and finally onto CryptoCred. Trader Dante I have followed since 2012 and posted many links to his work on this forum for years because I know it to be genuine good advice from an experienced trader. Actually earlier this year, for a laugh, he and Brian Watts entered the CME wheat traders competition (neither have ever traded wheat before) and Dante won it hands down. If you are demanding to see CryptoCred's audited accounts like Oilfxpro use to do then no but I have enough experience to recognise the good from the bad and wouldn't have bothered posting it if it was anything other than genuine sound advice and real and tested concepts that every trader should be aware of.

Breaking from the holiday to post this link to CryptoCred's recently published free online complete trading and TA study guide. 50 page pdf doc with links to Cred's 5-6 hours of TA training videos. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UJBLRa9Sh0PZ0vL_wI9uDVbIRxVUdazE/view Happy Hols.

Oh dear @Mercury, what patronising hypocritical nonsense, you are always the first to jump in and stamp on everyone's posts, always have done, and with the hint you are actually doing them a favour and educating the poor sole. But in fact your knowledge of technical analysis is actually very confined, just layered on extremely thick. This doesn't make it more valid than anyone else's or even lead to views that carry more weight than someone who doesn't use TA at all. Twice in this thread you have accused people of just arguing for the need to be right but it is always with you, doesn't that tell you anything.

Price continuation is a question of momentum, price like everything else will continue on until acted upon by a new force, there may be forces slowing the momentum in which case price will stop and the chart will go sideways but it takes something bigger to reverse it and that will be new news. The chart of commercials and large speculators is always inverse because commercials supply the contracts for the large speculators, they are both smart money. Large speculators are registered players most of whom will work for institutions (commercials).

Correction to last post re; FOMC rate rises '7 in the last 8 meetings - not months'.

Oil did indeed continue down into the 45s and held up at the blue line (45656) from my post on Tuesday, there is no real reason either technical or fundamental why there should be a bounce from here. The question is will the slide continue to the next level down at 42061. @PandaFace, the COT data shows the continued slow steady unwinding of net longs by large speculators since the start of the year but I would expect that to level off in the near future.

Dow remains in touch with the range bottom having slipped though yesterday so not a clear break. Interesting reading in this Reuters article that the Fed remains unconcerned with the daily 'noise' and still sees a strong economy so not needing direct intervention as yet though recognises the schedule of rate rises may need to change, having had 7 in the last 8 months. There is no real feel of panic and difficult to see any real reason for one, the market has adjusted after some big players were caught offside following the Feds latest rate rise so difficult to see continuing downside until there is new news. The Fed (and all big movers for that matter) are not glued to and ruled by the charts, technical analysis is only a tool that at any one time may or may not have an influence. There remains (as the Fed clearly thinks) the real possibility of a rally back up once the pain of the last rate hike has been digested. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-policy/signs-of-trouble-so-far-just-noise-to-a-fed-that-sees-growth-continuing-idUSKCN1OJ2IT

Yes quite right @TrendFollower, it's a contrarian indicator, you do the opposite.

Indeed @TrendFollower, Alan Hull has a web site where he explains how it is calculated, very clever. https://alanhull.com/hull-moving-average With regards to contrarian trading DailyFX use their (IG) Client Sentiment strategy https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment?ref=SubNav, their data is from IG retail clients where 80% are wrong at any one time but of course that's retail clients not large speculators. I appreciate this is not what @Mercury is doing but rather using percentage change but it is not hard to find times in the COT graphs where the retail traders have been completely wrong footed trying to front run the large speculators.

Looking to go against large speculators has never really worked out for retail traders @Mercury as the graph shows, they tend to come off the poorer. We have all seen the cause of this consolidation period as being the deliberate attempt at the restructuring of the trade relationship between China and the US at the same time when the Fed decided to start systematic rate rises, both these acts are discretionary and subject to change. Interestingly the central banks are going off the idea of forward guidance allowing more scope for a more flexible approach. As shown above the chart matches the timeline for US tariff wave implementation rather than any other story line and will probably continue to do so, that's what price action is 'screaming'. It doesn't really matter what name is given to the general movement, you could say we had a bull from end of 2016, bear run Jan to April this year, then a bull run to October, then a bear run etc... Any run can turn on a sixpence as we have seen countless times. You are correct that many people wear their bias like a straight jacket even when the evidence proves them wrong for months into years at a time, certainly an over reliance on the technical at the exclusion of the fundamental can cause major blind spots. Fortunately I don't really need one as I'm only interested in a session at a time and happily follow the Hull moving average up or down which ever way it happens to be going.

As the latest COT report several posts above shows - large speculators are still very much net long so not a bear market as yet. As for a which way from here, given the Feds acknowledgement of market difficulties and signalling an easing off of the systematic rate rises in future it's just as easy to see this as the bottom of a consolidation range and longer term buying opportunity, time will tell.

So there it is, the Fed are not too worried so carry on. Dow is left resting on 23110 and Dax same on 10584. Nikkei has taken the plunge diving below 20791 (weekly support) so lets see if the others follow. 10 min vid from John Kicklighter discussing the FOMC decision plus upcoming BoE and BoJ rate decisions.

Similar profile for all 4 indices on the 4 hour chart while waiting for the fed rate decision today. Will they or wont they? Given the continuation of the China trade dispute a slow down of the systematic rate rises would seem appropriate but at the same time Powell won't want to be seen to be bowing to Trump. Though having said that the Fed where quite happy to bow to the Obama administration for 8 long years and reject any rate rise at all while the administration presided over the slowest recovery in history while doubling the national debt.

Missed this hourly bar retest of broken support now resistance.

@TrendFollower, yes good points, there is a difference between the technical and the trading aspect, price is really just looking for levels where contracts can be exchanged, if not it moves on. All you are looking for is a move and then a simple methodology to trigger a trade that over a number of trades has proved itself to be reliable and profitable. Adding multiple levels of TA risks skewering probability because you are stacking multiple layers of probability onto the problem. WTI has managed to get itself back in the box on this weekly chart but still seems to be looking for support and if not finding it at the current recent low 4947 may well look below to the 45s or even the 42s. But the bulk of the run would appear to be over and we are likely to see oil oscillating about the 50 for the foreseeable future imo.