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JamesIG

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Blog Entries posted by JamesIG

  1. JamesIG
    Please be aware that due to year end market factors we are seeing significant moves in the funding rates for most FX pairs. This has been observed across the market, although some pairs are looking to be worse affected than others (most notably if you are short US dollars). These factors include financial institutions balancing their books before the end of the year, putting a strain on certain currencies.
    You can see overnight funding charges on FX pairs by using the link to the right. This is currently only available in desktop/web trading platform for leverage accounts.
    What does this mean for you
    Funding rates for FX pairs can be extremely volatile, resulting in your daily funding adjustments being much higher than normal. To the best of our knowledge this will affect JPY crosses held past 10pm on the 26th December, CAD crosses and USDTRY positions held past 10pm on the 28th December, and most other pairs including gold and silver held past 10pm on the 27th December. 
    As an example, for a normal 2-day roll charge on EURUSD you would receive 1.7pts for a short position and pay 1.79pts for a long position (+/- IG’s admin charge). Current rates are indicating receiving/paying 6 times these amounts should you hold your positions through year end snapshot dates, but these rates can change. 
    All things being equal, the FX tradeable price should adjust to reflect these rates but this is out of our control. 
    Where can I see expected overnight funding rates on FX positions?
    The funding rates shown on the platform are indicative and subject to change. 'Swap Bid' / 'Swap Offer' rates as shown below can be toggled on/off and show the expected rate for that day. I.e, to view what the expected rates you'll pay or receive on a currency pair at 10pm (GMT) would require you to check the specific currency row at any point on that same day (prior to 10pm). You can read more about that here.

  2. JamesIG
    Exploring base metal markets
    Join us on Thursday 6th December at 1pm for the final #IGCommodityChat, when we will be talking to economist Daniel Lacalle and mining analyst John Meyer about base metal markets. Put your questions to the experts as part of the live Q&A by using #IGCommodityChat using the comments section below. 
     
    Submit your questions now
    There will be a live Q&A during the session, so you can put forward any topics you want answered. Post your questions to the #IGCommodityChat using the comments section below, and check out one of the latest #IGChats we recently posted on oil and gold to get a flavour of what to expect. The show will be broadcast live from within the dealing platform as well as via a special YouTube link and on various social channels. 
    How political unrest impacts base metal supply What the effect of the US-China trade war has been on base metal prices How global growth (or a lack thereof) is impacting global demand The base metal mining stocks to watch
  3. JamesIG
    Continuing our #IGCommodityChat and following our previous chat on gold, join us on Thursday the 29 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of the oil market with industry advisor Malcolm Graham-Wood and Spencer Welch, director of oil markets at IHS Markit.
    Submit your questions now or during the live show
    Use the comments section at the bottom of the blog (even if you're not an IG client or not logged in) and we'll put them to the panel. If there are any questions which we don't get to in the live show our senior sales traders will look to get you an answer and continue the discussion. We'll also look to answer questions posted here.
    UPDATE at 13.01: minor technical issues will cause a delay with the start of the stream. I will update when we're live. 
    UPDATE at 13.07: This is now live on the platform only. We'll push to Community afterwards. 
    UPDATE at 14.10: The live show is now accessible above.
    With so much uncertainty surrounding the future of the oil market, we’ll be taking a look at how the industry changes might influence the price of oil. You can watch the live stream at 1pm (UK time) via the trading platform.
  4. JamesIG
    What is the future of gold? 
    After the recent success of the #IGCryptoChat and #IGForexChat we'd love you to join us on Thursday 22 November at 1pm (UK time) to discuss the future of gold on our first in a three part series on commodities for our #IGCommodityChat. 
    We’re sitting down with professional investor Simon Popple and Ross Normal, CEO of Sharps Pixley, to discuss what the future might be for gold markets, and giving you the chance to ask him questions as part of a live Q&A.
    Gold discussion topics
    The discussion will cover a wide range of topics that relate to gold, including:
    Could companies halt operations if the cost of gold falls too low? How does a lack of new deposit discoveries impact the price of gold? Where is the demand for gold coming from? Why does the price of gold respond to market volatility? What is the relationship between gold and the US dollar? What are the gold stocks to watch at the moment?
  5. JamesIG
    We are hosting our third live IG Forex Chat on Thursday 1 November at 6.30pm (UK time), where we will be exploring what the year ahead could hold for emerging market (EM) currencies. You can watch the discussion live in the IGTV player within the web trading platform, or using the YouTube link below. The whole purpose of these talks is to give you direct access to our panel and provide a platform for you to ask any question you wish about the subject in hand. Submit your questions below now!
    With emerging market currencies having been exceptionally volatile in 2018, we take a look at what the next 12 months could hold for related forex markets. Our discussion will cover a broad range of topics, including:
    The emerging market currencies to watch over the next 12 months How the dollar’s valuation will affect EM currencies The effects of changing commodity prices How the value of the US dollar, Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble will change
      Who are the experts?
    Paul Bratby is a self-employed trader who specialises in Elliott wave analysis. As well as trading via his personal account, he runs My Trading Buddy (MTB) and Wave5trade (W5T), which provide a wealth of trading tools and information about the forex markets.
    Raj Dhall is a market analyst, whose content has appeared on TradingView, FX Daily, the Society of Technical Analysts, London South East, Interactive Investor and Zero Hedge. His writing focuses on the influence of macroeconomic and political events on the markets.
  6. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 29 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.     

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
     
    Special dividends this week
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. 
    Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount AS51 IAG AU 31/10/2018 Special Div 7.8571 IBEX ITX SM 31/10/2018 Special Div 21 SX5E ITX SM 31/10/2018 Special Div 21 RTY COLB US 06/11/2018 Special Div 14 RTY HFWA US 06/11/2018 Special Div 10 How do dividend adjustments work? 
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. JamesIG
    This week sees Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU come to the forefront once more. IG's own Sara Walker will be joined by Nick Cawley from Daily FX and Simon French, Chief Economist to UK merchant bank Panmure Gordon, to discuss how the meetings outcome could affect the FX market. 
    The second #IGForexChat
    You can join us on Thursday 18 October at 6.30pm (BST) live on IGTV to get involved with the conversation. Submit your questions directly to the panel by adding your questions below, or by replying live in real time using the #IGForexChat hashtag on a number of social media platforms. 
    Topics to cover can be defined by you and other IG clients, so make sure you get your questions in now. 
    Overview of how the pound (EURGBP/GBPUSD) has been affected together with other indicators such as FTSE 100 What the possible outcomes of the next Brexit talks look like? Is Brexit also affecting other currencies such as the Euro/Dollar? Trading tips depending on final deals The speakers
    Simon French: Chief Economist at the UK merchant bank, Panmure Gordon & Company. He is a Top-5 ranked economist in the City’s Extel rankings and has a monthly column for The Times newspaper. Prior to joining Panmure Gordon he was a Senior Civil Servant, latterly at the Cabinet Office as Chief of Staff to the UK Government’s Chief Operating Officer. 
    He holds an Undergraduate and Postgraduate degree in Economics & Finance from Durham University and is a member of the Government Economic Service and the Society of Professional Economists.
    Nick Cawley: more than 30 years of experience covering a wide range of financial markets and instruments. After nearly two decades of trading and broking a variety of fixed-income products, Nick turned his hand to reporting and analysing macro and micro events in the fixed income and foreign exchange sectors.
    Submit your questions now
    Get involved with the #IGForexChat and put your questions to Simon and Nick. Submit your questions below. 
  8. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 8 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special dividends 
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying individual instrument, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close.
    Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    UKX
    BDEV LN
    11/10/2018
    Special Div
    17.3

    How do dividend adjustments work? As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. JamesIG
    IG is hosting the first #IGForexChat on Thursday 4th October at 6.30pm
    You can watch the live broadcast using the video player below (with the broadcast starting just before the above time), or from within the dealing platform. We want to hear your questions so we can put them to the panel, opening up a two way channel between you and a group of experts which you may not usually have access to. The first two guests will be Raj Dhall at tradingview.com and Samuel Morton at lovethepips and forexcfdsignals.com. You can read more about the #IGForexChat here, or simply submit your questions below!
     
  10. JamesIG
    Submit your questions now! In October we will be hosting a number of live chats and discussion dedicated to the world of currency trading and the foreign exchange market. Each #IGForexChat will focus on a unique topic, relevant to the macroeconomic landscape today.
    These topics will include; the ongoing US - Sino trade war, Trump's protectionist tariffs, and the renminbi; the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and any ongoing EU negotiations; and finally the recent sell side pressure affecting emerging market currencies and their local economies. 
    Submit your #IGFXChat questions now... Each #IGForexChat discussion will be hosted by our own IGTV presenters along with an elite group of influencers, analysts, traders, and market commentators. We will broadcast LIVE within the IG dealing platform, on IG Community, and via our broader social media platforms such as Facebook and YouTube. 
    Our first #IGForexChat will focus on...
    What effect will the trade war have on forex markets?
     
    Possible effects of Trump’s policies Possible effects of Chinese, EU, G7 reactions, etc Chinese renminbi – how will its valuation develop, will China continue to exert control over its value, etc? Key pairs to watch over next 12 months The most important part of the #IGForexChat will be you! We want to hear your questions so we can put them to the panel, opening up a two way channel between you and a group of experts which you may not usually access. The first two guests will be Raj Dhall at tradingview.com and Samuel Morton at lovethepips and forexcfdsignals.com.
    Submit your questions now!Throughout the live broadcast you can use the #IGForexChat hashtag to submit your questions via any form of social media, but you can also submit any question you may have right now, simply by commenting on this post. If you're an IG client (both live and demo) make sure that you are logged into Community before you post. 
    We've done this type of broadcast before with our #IGCryptoChat discussions we had back in March 2018. You can check out an example of what we have instore for you below.
    Submit your #IGFXChat questions now... If you're a 'guest' to this page and don't have an account with IG, you can still leave a comment below (however it will need to be approved by a moderator).
  11. JamesIG
    Yesterday the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the 3rd time this year. Asian stocks post negative sessions following the Fed announcement being led by the technology and energy sectors. Major currency pairs hold steady whilst the USD basket, despite initial volatility, traded largely flat. Minor gains have been made this morning putting the dollar about a quarter of a percent up. Oil continues to climb as investors continue to be cautiously optimistic that the Iranian sanction void can’t be easily filled. Upbeat comments by Mario Draghi on rising pay and inflation expectations helps boost the euro. Gold continues to trade in a tight range. This is a perfect time for traders to start following the precious metal as volatile movements are likely to follow as traders jump on a break out. German CPI data for September and US GDP Q2 / August Trade Balance figures are the ones to look out for today. Asian overnight: The US Federal Reserve increased the benchmark lending rate by 0.25% last night (as was expected). The central bank has suggested that another rate hike in 2018 may be on the cards, as the US economy shows signs of further strength. A bearish session overnight has seen losses across the board, with Japanese stocks suffering the most. Yesterday’s expected rate rise came alongside a rise in expectations for a December hike, sparking dollar strength. With all the talk of the ‘neutral rate’, it is clear we are not quite there yet. We also saw the RBNZ rate decision, where the New Zealand central bank decided to retain the current rate of 1.75%.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet European session drives the focus straight back onto the US, with core durable goods, trade balance, and the Final GDP figure all released at once. We also have a series of appearances from central bankers, with Draghi, Powell, and Poloz all appearing throughout the afternoon and evening.
    South Africa: US Index Futures and Asian markets are trading flat to marginally lower this morning suggestive of a similar start for our local bourse (The Jse AllShare Index). The rand remains firm at around R14.15/$. Tencent Holdings is down 1.9% in Asia suggestive of a weaker start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is 0.1% lower in Australia, suggestive of a flat to slightly lower start for local resource counters. 
    Commodity prices are trading slightly firmer after marginal losses yesterday. When it comes to spot gold the percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Aug 09 when it traded near 1211.76. Paul Robinson of DFX noted that “If the monthly high (1212) or low (1187) [of golds range bound movement] aren’t broken by the close on Friday, this month’s range will rank as the smallest in over 22 years. That almost certainly won’t last another month.” 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone business confidence (September): forecast to drop to 1.15 from 1.22. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
    1pm – German CPI (September, preliminary): forecast to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, final reading), durable goods order (August), Personal consumption expenditure prices (Q2, final): GDP to rise 4.2% QoQ, durable goods orders to rise 1.7% from -1.7% MoM, and increase 0.5% from 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. PCE prices to rise 2.6% QoQ from 2.5%, and core PCE prices to increase by 2% from 2.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US pending home sales (August): forecast to fall 1.9% YoY from a 2.3% drop in July. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Saga reported a 4% fall in first-half profits, to £107 million, although it said its retail broking policy count was back to levels seen in the first half of 2017. Expenses fell to £120 million from £126 million a year earlier.  TUI said that trading was in line with expectations despite the hot summer, and it maintained its guidance for underlying earnings to rise 10% this year. Trading for the future season was in line with forecasts at this early stage.  Entertainment One said it remains on track to hit forecasts after its family and brands segment performed well in the first half.   Adcorp Holdings released a trading statement, guiding that Total basic earnings per share of between 82 cents and 100 cents is expected, which compares to a total basic loss per share of 120.7 cents in the prior years comparative period (ending 30 August 2017). Wood Upgraded to Hold at Jefferies
    RWE Upgraded to Buy at DZ Bank
    Investec upgrade Anglo Platinum with a target price of 48000c
    BMW Downgraded to Hold at SocGen
    DEFAMA Downgraded to Accumulate at SRC Research
    Investec downgrade Pick n Pay to sell with a target price of 6900c
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  12. JamesIG
    Asian stocks are broadly higher ahead of the Fed rate decision later today, whilst the NZ dollar is buoyed by higher business confidence.  Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani came to a head at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday with the US President vowing more sanctions against Tehran, whilst President Rouhani suggested that Trump suffers from a "weakness of intellect." Trump is really trying to bring the price of oil into play before the midterms as high oil prices could hit the Republican vote. Oil pulls back after Trump's comments on OPEC whilst bonds and currencies are broadly steady. When it comes to trade wars it may be worth keeping an eye on the USDCNY pair. BCA research and the head of economic research at UBS both speculate that the Chinese renminbi could weaken to 7Rmb against the dollar before the end of the year. According to an internal document reported by reuters, EU negotiators are ready to offer Theresa May a free-trade area in Brexit, however they are adamant that there must be a customs border that will trade less than frictionless. The Argentinian peso, an EM currency which has seen news inches this quarter, slide as much as 5% as the central bank chief quits just three months into the job. Globally IPO’s have slide by nearly 1/5th this year amid geopolitical tensions, whilst money brought into via the process has increased by 10% according to accountancy firm EY. Asian overnight: Asian markets enjoyed a largely positive session, as trade concerns faded despite Trump’s UN speech which heralded an America first approach rather than rampant globalisation. The New Zealand dollar came into favour overnight, gaining ground in the wake of a strong business confidence figure. This despite a deterioration in their trade balance figure, with imports rising and exports shrinking.
    UK, US and Europe: Today sees all eyes turn to the Fed, with the FOMC due to announce their latest monetary policy decision. The simultaneous release of the latest FOMC economic projections should ensure volatility for the dollar and US stocks markets. Apart from the Fed, the European session sees little of note, with new home sales and crude inventories the other numbers to watch out of the US.
    Record breaking divergence between the US equity market and the rest of the world could see a significant movement of money out of Wall Street and into other markets in Europe and Asia. The S&P has gained 9% this year alone and has created the biggest difference between its continued all time highs and the rest of the world putting it at its most extreme levels since 1970. US consumer confidence is at a 17 year high whilst manufacturing activity reached a 14 year high. According to BoA ML analysts, investors have built up a significant level of US equity exposure over the last three years. A mass exodus could see significant movements. This could potentially provides an interesting trade opportunity if the flow into Asia and European markets tips as investors, traders and speculators search for greater returns - the players to keep an eye on however are the institutional investors and money managers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    3pm – US new home sales (August): expected to rise 2.2% MoM. Market to watch: US crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/c 21 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 480,000 barrels from a 2 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    7pm – FOMC decision (7.30pm press conference): the central bank is expected to raise rates to 2.25% from 2%, but this is all but a foregone conclusion, so the market impact will be in their projections for future rate rises, their assessment of the US economy and the impact (if any) from the US-China trade conflict. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSP said that it expected like-for-like sales in its financial year to grow by 2-3%. Growth in Q4 was similar to Q3, driven by increased passenger numbers.   PZ Cussons expects overall results for the quarter to the end of August were in line with forecasts, as growth in Europe and Asia offset a poorer performance in Nigeria.  AA said that higher callouts due to bad weather and potholes hit pre-tax profit for the first half, which fell to £23 million from £64 million a year earlier.   Boohoo reported a 50% rise in first half revenue, to £395 million, with international revenues now 40% of the total. Sales growth for the full year is now expected to be 38-43%, from a previous guidance of 35-40%.  Bouygues upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Next upgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Randgold upgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Scandic raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Deutsche Boerse downgraded to sell at Bankhaus Lampe
    Grammer downgraded to sell at Quirin Privatbank AG
    Kier downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Telenet downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  13. JamesIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange.
    Special dividends 
    You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying individual instrument, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close.
    Index   Bloomberg Code Effective Date Dividend Amount AS51   QUB AU 18/09/2018 28.571 TOP40   OMU SJ 19/09/2018 100 AS51     SPK AU 20/09/2018 19.375 XIN9I   601857 CH 21/09/2018 2.22 HIS   27 HK 21/09/2018 50 AEX   RAND NA 24/09/2018 69 How do dividend adjustments work?
    As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is affected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. JamesIG
    Asian equities diverge, as Chinese shares fall and Japanese shares climb. The Euro jumped on Monday after Mario Draghi of the ECB signalled that policymakers are on track to reduce stimulus measures. He stated that the bank was confident it could maintain inflation targets over the next few years. In the EM space, India's Nifty Fifty stock market is seeing a sell off after reports that a major lender is struggling to service $12.6bn of debt. The index is down 7% since highs seen in the latter half of last month. Instagram founders quit the Facebook acquired business less than 6 months after WhatsApp founders do the same. Oil prices are remaining at their 4 year high despite some inevitable profit taking. As Reuters reports "US sanctions against Iran and unwillingness by OPEC to raise output supported the market." In the crypto space more than 75 of the worlds largest banks are joining the Interbank Information Network to see if blockchain technology can speed up payments and remittance processes.  US Consumer Confidence is the macro data to look out for later today. Asian overnight: The Japanese and Chinese markets have reopened following yesterday’s bank holidays with a disconnect between the two. The breakdown in talks between the US and China understandably continues to weigh on Chinese stocks, with the ASX 200 also in the red. Meanwhile, both Japanese indices have been gaining ground amid a strengthened USDJPY. Crude prices hit a four-year high following the decision from OPEC to not raise production over the weekend. Metal prices are trading flat today.
    UK, US and Europe: A quiet calendar ahead sees the US consumer confidence figure provide the one notable event of the day. With the Chinese trade talks continuing to sour, the expectations of a weaker reading are not surprising. Global markets are trading mixed this morning as they wait for their next directional catalysts, which are likely to be updates on the Brexit and Trade war narratives later this week.
    As gold prices continue to echo the swings seen in the USD, the market is generally looking towards Wednesdays FOMC monetary policy announcement before a direction is confirmed. Whilst from a technical perspective gold seems confined to a fairly tight range, it is pushing towards the falling 1220 target. 
    South Africa: The rand is trading slightly firmer this morning. The JSE Allshare index is expected to open flat to marginally firmer this morning. BHP Billiton is up 0.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): expected to fall to 131.3 from 133.4. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Next has seen a 0.5% rise in first half profit, to £311.1 million, while sales were up 3.8% to £1.99 billion. Full-price sales rose 4.5%, ahead of the expected 2.2%.  Imperial Brands said that it remains on track to hit full-year revenue and earnings guidance, thanks to a stronger second half due to an improved tobacco price mix and increasing next generation product revenue.  McCarthy & Stone will focus on cost-cutting, looking to save £40 million a year by FY 2021. It will produce around 2100 new homes a year, while looking to improve margins.  Alfa Laval upgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    Boliden raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Curasan upgraded to buy at Montega
    Epiroc upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    Investec upgrade Anglo Platinum with a target price of 48000c
    Auto Trader cut to equal-weight at Barclays
    Sky downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    BHP downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    J D Wetherspoon downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt
    Investec downgrade Pick n Pay to sell with a target price of 6900c
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  15. JamesIG
    Global equity markets are shining with the Japanese Nikkei hitting an 8-month high, Chinese shares on course to make their biggest weekly gains in 2 years, and a strong earnings outlook expected to continue. US stock market also looks to continue it's march to record highs are strong fund inflows support the market. Figures released on Thursday by EPFR Global quoted a $14.5bn inflow. The Hong Kong dollar (pegged to that of the USD) strengthened early Friday ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting next week, and an expected rise in interest rates. Brent crude has its eyes on $80 a barrel and is currently trading at its highest level in 4 years, all despite efforts of Trump's Tweets for OPEC to "get prices down now". Crypto exchanges have hit back at a damning NY Attorney General report. Assets in the sector have rallied over the last session with bitcoin up around 5% in the last 4 days, and ether pushing a 17% gain in the same time period.  Join our #IGFXChat and put your currency
    questions to our expert panel now! Asian overnight: Asian markets are back on a positive footing, with the Chinese indices leading the gains amid widespread upside. This week has largely seen the markets take an optimistic outlook to US-China trade talks, and the gains seen overnight are an extension of that. On the data front, Japan was the centre of market focus, with national core CPI rising to 0.9% (from 0.8%), while the flash manufacturing PMI rose less than expected to 52.9 (from 52.5). Oil prices were mixed after falling in the previous session as President Donald Trump urged OPEC to lower crude prices ahead of its meeting in Algeria this weekend.  For many industrial buyers and energy companies out there it seems they are cautious and possibly expectant of higher prices in the future.
    UK, US and Europe: New data out recently has shown that the US has become the EU's largest supplier of soyabeans, with nearly 1.5 million tonnes supplied in the last quarter. This shows an increase of nearly 130% compared to the same period last year. This is seen as important by both Brussels and Trump, as it featured prominently in the President's plan for improving US-EU relations. Looking forward this could signal a success for both sides, as continued efforts to "reduce barriers and increase trade in services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, [and] medical products".
    Europe is ending the week in busy fashion, with a raft of eurozone PMIs released throughout the morning. Manufacturing and services PMI readings from the likes of France, Germany, and the eurozone should keep the euro in focus. In the US session, we also see those same PMI readings released later in the day. Also keep an eye out for the Canadian retail sales and CPI numbers. Finally, given the current events surrounding oil, Trump and OPEC it's going to be increasingly important to stay up to date with figures out on the black gold. Baker Hughes should keep you in your chairs at 6pm BST today.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMI (September, flash): French services PMI to rise to 56.1 from 55.4, and mfg fall to 53.4 from 53.5. German services PMI to rise to 55.1 from 55 and mfg to fall to 55.4 from 55.9. Eurozone services PMI to hold at 54.4 and mfg to fall to 54.4 from 54.6. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    1.30pm – Canada CPI (August), retail sales (July): CPI to be 2.8% YoY from 3% and 0.2% Mom from 0.5%. Core CPI to be 1.5% YoY from 1.6%. Retail sales to rise 0.4% MoM from -0.2%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
    2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (September, flash): mfg to fall to 53.8 from 54.7, and services to fall to 53.6 from 54.8. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Smiths Group said pre-tax profit for the year was down 28% to £435 million, while revenue fell 2% to £3.21 billion. Operating margin fell 110 basis points to 16.9%.  SIG reported a 28% drop in operating profit, to £26.9 million, while revenue was down 4% to £1.38 billion. Poor weather in the UK hit performance, but the trading environment was better in mainland Europe and Ireland.  EDF upgraded to neutral at Exane
    Enel upgraded to outperform at Exane
    Maersk upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Endesa downgraded to neutral at Exane
    Suedzucker downgraded to sell at Bankhaus Lampe
    Verbund downgraded to underperform at Exane
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  16. JamesIG
    Stocks pull back in the Asian overnight market after a tepid close of Wall Street last night. Bellwether metals copper and zinc, along with other industrial metals, continue their rally as investors and traders focus on increasing demand rather than US-Sino relations. Rio Tinto announced a $3.2bn share buyback scheme, and whilst the Anglo-Australian miner saw 3.2% gain the ASX didn’t follow suit and ended down slightly. Potential swings on the UK Rio listing on the open. In EM currencies, the SA Rand rallied on Wednesday after consumer price growth slowed according to inflation data. This comes ahead of the rate decision today - one to keep an eye on amid potential volatility. A solid reading on New Zealand’s economic growth GDP figure pushed the NZ dollar higher. US dollar index was down around 0.1%, with the euro trading at around 1.168 USD whilst 10 year treasuries are up around 10 basis points in the last week. US crude inventories saw a three and a half year low yesterday whilst gasoline saw a pullback. Both energies were up on the news and have seen consolidation since. This could be one to watch today for any profit taking or movement on the back of trade talk news. The president of the Financial Action Task Force, the global anti money laundering body, has said he’s optimistic about agreeing a set of standards for AML procedures applied to crypto and virtual currencies. Retail Sales in the UK, US initial jobless claims, and the EU press conference are the macro data areas to look out for today.
    Asian overnight: A much less decisive and convincing session overnight has seen Asian markets largely exhibiting moderate gains in a day that has seen them oscillate around the market open level. The one loser on the session came from Australia, with the ASX 200 falling after a report from the RBA said that in an all-out trade war, the AUD could significantly strengthen. The NZD was one of the strongest currencies of the session, following an improved GDP number of 1% for Q2.
    UK, US and Europe: Theresa May stated yesterday that she will not accept Brexit offers that treat Northern Ireland as a separate customs territory, after the EU proposed to keep the region within its customs union and single market. Further to the Financial Action Task Force statement on cryptocurrencies discussed above, the UK's Treasury Committee has announced that the country could soon implement regulatory reforms for Cryptocurrencies, to address poor security, extreme volatility and excessive anonymity. The proposed aim is to make the UK a legitimate home for crypto trading and become a major trading centre.
    Looking ahead, the UK is back in focus with the release of the latest retail sales number. Volatility over Brexit has been influencing the pound and thus traders should also watch out for any further comments from the UK or EU. In the afternoon, keep an eye out for the US Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales. Meanwhile, the eurozone comes back into play, with consumer confidence and an appearance from Bundesbank President Weidmann later in the day.
    South Africa: Global markets are giving ambiguous signals today for the JSE as US Index futures and Asian markets show a mix off marginal gains and losses this morning. There is little in the way of new news to guide markets today although South African traders and speculators will keep a watchful eye on the Reserve banks monetary policy meeting this afternoon.
    Lending rates are expected to remain unchanged, although there remains a possibility of a marginal rate hike. The rand remains firm leading into the news event. Tencent Holdings is up 0.25% in Asia suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.14% higher in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK retail sales (August): sales to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, from 0.7% and 3.5% respectively. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 September), Philadelphia Fed index: claims to rise to 208K from 204K, while the Philly Fed index rises to 15 from 11.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (September): confidence index to rise to -0.7 from -1.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    3pm – US existing home sales (August): forecast to rise 0.6% MoM from a -0.7% fall. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Rio Tinto has announced details of its $3.2 billion share buyback, combining an off-market tender of $1.9 billion and additional on-market purchases.  Stobart said that passenger numbers at its London Southend airport rose 37% for the first half.   Kier Group reported a 9% rise in underlying pre-tax profit for the full year, to £137 million.   Diageo said that the new financial year had begun well and that performance remained in line with expectations. Heightened exchange rate volatility is expected to hit operating profit for the year by around £45 million.   Aveva upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    Weir upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Bayer upgraded to buy at Citi
    Proximus upgraded to buy at Citi
    Essity downgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Nokian Renkaat downgraded to sell at Carnegie
    Telenet downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Telefonica Deutschland downgraded to sell at Bankhaus Lampe
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  17. JamesIG
    IG Product Update July 2018
    We recently made a post on Community showcasing a number of ways you can leave feedback and suggest improvements regarding our products and services. I wanted to follow up with our first ever ‘Product Update’ post so you can see some of the recent improvements we have made on the back of our continued two way communication which has helped IG become the global leader. 
     
    The recent updates include,
    Partially close positions via charts Market name watermarks for all charts New ether/bitcoin (ETH/BTC) crypto pair (and vote on which NEW crypto asset you are most interested in) Changes to weekend overnight funding An improved way to get in contact with Trading Services  
    Partially close positions via charts
    This brand new feature is now available on charts for both the web trading platform and on mobile. When ‘1-click dealing’ is not enabled you will be able to confirm whether or not you want to close the whole position, or to partially close via a pop up dialogue box. To use this functionality click 'close' (1) on the chart, change the 'Sell' value (for example in this screenshot you can change 4 to 2 to only close half the position), followed by 'Submit'. The window will show the ‘Closing P&L’ as well as the ‘Margin Returned’. 

     
    Market name watermarks for all charts
    To add clarity and ease of use it is now possible to display the name of the market in the background of the charts. This feature is disabled by default but can be activated from the “customise appearance” menu which is brought up by right clicking on the chart, ticking the “show watermark” checkbox, and clicking 'Apply'. Once activated every charts will start showing the market name. The watermark will also be displayed on the image produced using the “export chart” option.
    This should be an incredibly useful feature for those who have a number of charts open at the same time, as well as those who share their chart set ups online, with friends, and on IG Community.

     
    New ether/bitcoin cryptocurrency pair
    The ETH/BTC pair has been a tradable cryptocurrency asset on the IG platform for a couple of months and is calculated by taking the mid-price of ether and dividing it by the mid-price of bitcoin. We then adjust the decimal (in much the same way as we do for our FX pairs) to make the number easier to trade on the IG platform. A single point is anything to the left of the decimal.
    For example;
    Ether price:   440 USD
    Bitcoin price:   6150 USD
    ETH/BTC:   440 / 6150 = 0.07154
    IG platform price:   715.4
    One point means:   A price move from 715.4 up to 716.4 (or down to 714.4) would be one point.
     
    This is a great addition to our cryptocurrency offering as it gives a new way to gain exposure to the sometimes volatile market conditions of virtual currencies. Unlike trading other highly correlated cryptos, the ETHBTC pair gives a different trading opportunity which trend followers, technical analyst, and fundamental traders alike may enjoy. 
    We are also looking to our IG Community members and other IG clients to see which new crypto asset they are interested in (which IG doesn't currently offer). You can check out this poll to vote on which new crypto asset you are most interested in. Feel free to add comments and questions to the post if you would like to chat further. 

     
    Changes to weekend overnight funding
    We have also changed overnight funding on cryptocurrency positions held over the weekend. Previously, we were charging three nights funding on Wednesday to account for the weekend (in the same way as the majority of conventional FX pairs are calculated on a T+2 basis), but seeing as we offer these markets on Saturday and Sunday it is more appropriate to charge on a daily basis.
    We will also begin charging overnight funding for weekend index positions held through 10pm (UK time) Saturday and Sunday. The charges will be calculated in exactly the same way as our weekday indices. It’s also worth noting that anyone with AUD denominated contracts will be charged based on their positions at 10pm (UK time).
     
    An improved way to get in contact with Trading Services
    If you have ever had a query relating to your IG account, your trade activity, or the financial markets then it’s likely you’ve spoken to one of our Trading Services representatives. Over the last couple of years we have also rolled out IG Academy, a Help and Support Centre, and a new IG Community to better answer your questions.
    Recently we have rolled out a brand new ‘Contact Us’ page on IG.com. This page contains a web browser contact form which will automatically allocated your contact query to the correct department, increasing the speed of a resolution and reply.  
     
    I hope you find the above updates useful.
    You can find out how to submit feedback to IG here if you want to continue to help shape the future of IG.
    Any questions, just ask. 
     

  18. JamesIG
    The rebound in Chinese stock markets has extended and US bond yields are steady after the market digested the trade tariff news. MSCI Asia-Pacific index up 0.95%, whilst the Japanese Nikkei rises 1.3% A reclassification of the S&P 500 will see tech behemoth such as Facebook and Alphabet move from 'information tech' stocks into 'communication services' along with about a fifth of the index. Oil prices are seen to consolidate after rally. Cryptocurrency markets are holding steady, and with higher lows being made across the board this could signal a trend reversal for many technical traders. UK inflation data is in focus today, likely to be closely watched as investors economic optimism hits a near seven year low. Asian overnight: Asian markets continue to defy expectations, with gains throughout the region flying in the face of an intensified trade breakdown between the US and China. In a retaliation to the US decision to implement tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, China has now responded with further duties on $60bn of US imports. Chinese authorities have however said that they would not intervene in the currency market and have not yet removed themselves from upcoming bilateral talks on trade with the US. Despite both sides announcing new tariffs yesterday, the level of those levies are somewhat lower than expected, sparking a relief rally.
    In Japan the BoJ decided to maintain a steady monetary policy, with the bank stating that they will maintain extremely low rates for an extended period of time.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session will focus on the UK inflation data, with CPI expected to reverse last month’s gain, with a tick lower to 2.4%. A similar move is expected with core CPI, where a shift down to 1.8% would help continue the downward spiral of 2018. CPI, which stands for Consumer Price Index, is a key measure of inflation for the UK and is used by the Bank of England in making interest rate decisions. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical British household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Sterling to purchase this same set of basic consumer items
    The afternoon brings building permits and housing starts from the US, while an appearance from Mario Draghi and the crude inventories means that we should have a sufficient amount of data to shift the needle.
    South Africa: The Jse Allshare index is expected to post  gains this morning following its international counterparts. The rand is holding on to short term gains while commodity prices tick higher on the back of a weaker dollar. Tencent Holdings is trading 2% higher in Asia suggestive of a positive start major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 2.89% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK CPI (August): CPI to rise 2.7% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.3% MoM from 0%. Core CPI to be 2.1% YoY from 1.9%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (August): permits to fall 0.8% MoM and starts to rise 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 14 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 1.2 million barrels, from a 5.3 million barrels drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: WTI, Brent
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Stagecoach said that it has made a good start to its financial year, with forecasts unchanged despite a mixed performance, as revenue weakened in North America but UK rail revenue rose.   Kingfisher said that underlying pre-tax profit fell 14.8% to £375 million for the first half, while first-half gross margin fell 40 basis points. The firm said it remained on track to hit strategic milestones  NEX will pay $50 million to settle claims in the US relating to interest rate benchmark manipulation.   BAT upgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    CNP Assurances upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Commerzbank upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Concentric upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Castellum downgraded to sell at DNB Markets
    Coloplast downgraded to hold at ABG
    Credit Agricole cut to neutral at Mediobanca
    Fabege downgraded to sell at DNB Markets
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  19. JamesIG
    Trump to impose an additional 10% tariff duty on China rising to 25% next year if no deal is reached. China's yuan down on the back of trade war talks, whilst a stimulus package helps support the equity market. Gold's typical 'safe haven' status isn't re enforced this time around, with flow seen into the USD over the precious metal. Nickel, aluminium and bellwether metal copper hit on the LME by the $200bn tariff. Oil drops on the same news. Mining shares also hit as a result and its likely we’ll see some FTSE and European shares gap down on the open.. In the EM space political uncertainty is driving down coffee prices, whilst the Indian rupee drops to near record lows despite PMs best efforts. Elon Musk's SpaceX has named a Japanese billionaire as its first tourist they’ll fly around the moon.  Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has invested $1bn in a Tesla rival, Lucid motors.
    Asian overnight: Asian markets performed remarkably well overnight, with the Hang Seng and ASX 200 providing the two sour notes on an otherwise resilient session. Chinese markets rose despite Trump implementing 10% tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods which will will start on September 24. The decision comes in spite of China's warning that they would not engage in scheduled trade talks if the US implemented these tariffs. This would rise to 25% next year if no deal is reached, and the US has further warned that if China retaliates, it would pursue tariffs on another $267bn worth of imports from China. 
    To an extent this largely writes off any hopes of a resolution in the near-term and instead heightens the risk of Chinese retaliation. However it seems today’s news was largely baked into the price, thus muting the effect. While US markets were weaker overnight, US Index futures are trading marginally firmer this morning and Chinese equity markets significantly firmer today. Elsewhere, the RBA minutes pointed towards a bank which has no inclination to raise rates anytime soon.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, there are precious few notable economic releases of note, thus shifting the focus back onto the Chinese trade concerns alongside Brexit.
    South Africa:  Commodity prices are under some pressure this morning while the rand has managed to claw back some further strength against the greenback. BHP Billiton is trading 0.4% lower in Australia suggestive of a weaker start for local diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.2% in Asia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Spire Healthcare said that pre-tax profit fell 7.9% for the first half, to £8.2 million, while revenue was down 1.1% to £475.6 million. Full-year guidance was also cut, to £120-£125 million.   Ocado reported an 11.5% rise in retail revenue for Q3 to £349 million, while average orders per week rose 11.4% to 283,000.  Centrica upgraded to buy at Goldman
    Fresnillo upgraded to top pick at RBC
    Merlin upgraded to buy at SocGen
    Polymetal upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Investec maintain buy on Barloworld with a target price of 14400c
    Investec upgrades Distell to buy with a target price of 15000c
    CYBG downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    NCC downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Vifor Pharma cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Moody's has placed MTN on review for downgrade 
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  20. JamesIG
    Whilst the Tokyo markets are on holiday, most other Asian equity markets slip on reports that Washington are continuing their tariff roll outs with a focus once more on Chinese imports. Thin liquidity due to the closed Japanese market didn't help, however moves in currencies seem minor. Dollar steady against a basket of major currencies, whilst gold nudges up. Oil prices have generally eased as the trade war row potentially distorts the demand outlook. The cryptocurrency market is seeing mixed signals as the total market cap holds a strong position over the weekend. Tim Draper, Silicon Valley venture capitalist, has predicted an $80 trillion market cap in the next 15 years, whilst others point to stronger arguments in favor of an ETF market.  Asian overnight: A largely bearish start to the week has seen Chinese and Hong Kong stocks trading sharply lower, with the Australian ASX 200 pushing back in the opposite direction in the absence of Japanese markets whom are on a national holiday. Weather related crises throughout the world have been wreaking havoc on a number of countries, and the landfall of Typhoon Mangkhut on Hong Kong and Chinese land has dented confidence in the region. Damage to the Macau area meant that we saw a sharp decline in casino stocks. Meanwhile, news that China could actually reject the latest trade talk proposals given the likely imposition of tariffs on another $200bn of goods, risk sentiment as a whole isn’t great in the region.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, we have a day with precious few hugely notable releases, with the eurozone final CPI grabbing the headlines in the morning. For the afternoon, look out for the US empire state manufacturing survey, as we start the week off in a somewhat slow fashion.
    South Africa: Weaker US Index Futures and Asian equity markets this morning are suggestive of a slightly softer start for the JSE All Share Index. The rand along with its emerging market currency peers has softened against the dollar, while metal prices are also trading lower this morning. BHP Billiton is 0.66% lower in Australia suggestive of a weaker start today for locally listed diversified miners. Tencent Holdings is down 2.55% in Asia, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone inflation (August): forecast to rise 0.2% MoM from -0.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US NY Empire State mfg index (September): index to fall to 23.6 from 25.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Prudential said that it expects its demerged UK investments business, M&G Prudential, to hold around £3.5 billion of subordinated debt.  Sirius Minerals has signed a take-or-pay supply agreement with Brazilian firm Cibrafertil, for the supply and resale of potash into Brazil and other countries.  Dairy Crest expects first half profits and revenue to be ahead of last year, due to a strong performance from its Clover and Cathedral City brands.   Boohoo has appointed Primark’s chief operating officer John Lyttle as its new CEO.  Immofinanz Upgraded to Hold at Baader Helvea
    Concentric Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Prysmian Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman
    Hays Downgraded to Hold at HSBC
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  21. JamesIG
    Mark Carney will stay on as the BoE (Bank of England) governor until the end of January 2020 to help the UK through any Brexit turbulence. Unilever laid out plans for it's December listing as a new Dutch entity, initiated originally due to Brexit risks. China is set to request the World Trade Organization (WTO) to hit the US with good duties. Dollar slips. Oil prices have risen following a report that the US crude inventories are set to decline. Whilst top oil producer Russia warns of a fragile global oil market, sanctions on Iran are expected to tighten supply. Asian overnight: Trade war concerns continue to loom over Asian markets, with the Hang Seng providing the one outlier within a wider bearish story for overnight indices. Chinese stocks suffered in particular, as the two sides refuse to back down amid claims of further impending sanctions. Oil prices managed to push higher, as Hurricane Florence continues to bear down upon the East coast. Meanwhile, in Australia we saw a further deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey, sending AUDUSD lower yet again. Global markets are looking a little healthier this morning with US Index Futures extending overnight gains in US equity markets.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, crude inventories will ensure that WTI and Brent remain at the forefront of the investor mindset. However, apart from the US PPI inflation figure, we are looking at a relatively quiet day for the European and US session calendars. Keep an eye out for an appearance from Fed member Brainard later in the day. 
    South Africa: The Jse Allshare Index is in turn expected to trade slightly firmer on open. The dollar has recouped some of yesterday's losses which see's precious metal prices trading slightly lower this morning. The trade war narrative continues to weigh on base metal prices which were under significant pressure yesterday, although they are posting a marginal recovery this morning. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.45% higher in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.61% lower in Australia this morning suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.30pm – US PPI (August): producer prices to rise 0.2% MoM from 0%, and core PPI to rise 0.2% from 0.1%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 September): stockpiles expected to fall by 3.4 million barrels from a 4.3 million drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSE has issued a profit warning, saying that adjusted operating profit for the first half will be down 50% compared to a year earlier, due to warmer weather and higher prices that have hit demand.  Sports Direct said it continued to trade in line with expectations, with underlying EBITDA to rise between 5% and 15%, excluding the acquisition of House of Fraser.  Clover Industries FY18 results showed normalised headline earnings earnings per share to have increased by 224.7%. LSE Upgraded to Buy at AlphaValue
    Taylor Wimpey Upgraded to Overweight at Barclays
    Anglo American Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Gestamp Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Moody's has placed MTN on review for downgrade 
    Telefonica Downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan
    Crest Nicholson Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays
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    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  22. JamesIG
    GBP rallies on Brexit talks and a hope for a deal before the year is out. Whilst there seems to be a break in tariff hostilities, it seen by most as only temporary. A softer yen helped support Japan's Nikkei. Asian overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were the two weak spots in a mixed overnight session, with strong gains for Japanese and Australian markets. The expected imposition of a whole raft of new US tariffs on Chinese goods has brought about further pressure on businesses within the region, with Trump seeking to target the vast majority of Chinese imports into the US. Much of the sentiment has been bearish of late, as the gains in Japan and Australia are largely a break from the norm, as talk of fresh US tax reforms help improve the short-term outlook.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the UK remains in focus following a day of data yesterday. This morning sees the UK jobs report released, with markets keeping a particularly close eye on the average earnings figure given the impact on inflation expectations. While we see precious few notable releases from the US today, the eurozone also comes into focus alongside the UK, with German ZEW economic sentiment, and eurozone employment change worth watching out for.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK employment data: claimant count to fall by 6200 in August, from a rise of 6200 a month earlier. Unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% for July from 4%, while July average earnings to rise 2.5%, from a June rise of 2.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    10am – German ZEW index (September): index to rise to -10.4 from -13.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Ashtead said that it expected full-year results to be ahead of forecasts, as underlying earnings for the quarter to 31 July rose 20% to £503.7 million. A weaker pound has driven this improved performance.  Anglo American reported a fall in De Beers diamond sales, which fell to $505 million in the seventh cycle of 2018 compared to $533 million for the sixth cycle of 2017.  Koenig & Bauer Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Kion Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Ubisoft Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    J D Wetherspoon Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
    Galp Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Heineken Downgraded to Sell at Berenberg
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    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  23. JamesIG
    Asian stocks have slumped to a 14 month low on the back of China worries. USD edges higher as trade tensions keep markets on edge, whilst oil rises as new production in US drilling stalls. Slightly higher dollar causes gold to fall, along with rate hike views and trade war worries. Asian overnight: Fresh tariff concerns hit Asian markets overnight, with Apple suppliers particularly hard hit thanks to the US president’s tweets regarding the tech giant moving production to the US. Chinese stocks were lower, while Australia was broadly flat and Japan managed a small rise. Equities rebounded in the US after a better jobs report, with strength in wages particularly encouraging for US consumer spending.
    UK, US and Europe: UK trade data is the main event of the morning, while a busier week for retailers kicks off with numbers from Associated British Foods. Expect plenty of focus on Sweden after an indecisive election result there, with the incumbent centre-left government likely to spend the next two weeks trying to form a coalition. 
    South Africa: Global markets are trading mixed this morning with US Index Futures trading marginally higher, while most Asian markets (excluding Japan) are trading lower this morning. The Jse Allshare Index is expected to trade flat to marginally lower om open. The dollar continues to trade firmer and in turn we see commodity prices under marginal pressure this morning. Tencent Holdings is down 0.76% in Asia suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is down 0.32% in Australia suggestive of a softer start for locally listed resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK trade balance (July), GDP (July):trade deficit forecast to widen to £2.3 billion from £1.8 billion. GDP to rise 0.1% MoM. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    AVI Ltd FY18 results showed headline earnings to have increased by 7% from the prior year. Afrox Ltd Interim results showed diluted core headline earnings per share to have increased by 11.5% from the previous year's interim period. Associated British Foods said that its full-year outlook was unchanged, as Primark profits offset lower sugar prices. Sales were down 2% like-for-like at Primark for the year to 15 September.  RPC Group has said that it is in discussions regarding a sale of the company with Apollo and Bain Capital. Aurubis Upgraded to Neutral at Goldman
    Rio Tinto Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Norsk Hydro Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Nornickel GDRs Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Danske Bank Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Scor Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies
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    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  24. JamesIG
    The Asia equity market ex-Japan are looking at their lowest levels since July last year. Tech sector as a whole was hit by a drop in chip stocks yesterday as well as a knock to social media. Investors are cautious that new U.S. tariffs on China could come into play at any time. Yen and Swiss franc are looking to be bid up for those looking at safe harbours. Non-farm payrolls are out later today. Asian overnight: Yet again trade concerns weighed on Asian markets, with the Hang Seng posting its worst week since February. Tech stocks remain under pressure in both the US and China, with the momentum trade in the Nasdaq seeing a stark turnaround. A rise in US gasoline reserves hit oil prices and helped drive energy stocks lower.
    UK, US and Europe: Yesterday’s ADP numbers were weaker than forecast, so there will be some nervousness among dollar bulls ahead of NFPs this afternoon, while before this we have eurozone GDP figures. Trade war concerns remain front and centre, as the US and China ramp up the tensions.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    10am – eurozone GDP (Q2): expected to be 0.4% QoQ and 2.2% YoY, from 0.4% and 2.5% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (August): NFPs expected to come in at 187K from 157K, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings to be 0.3% MoM, in line with last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    1.30pm – Canada employment data (August): 15,900 jobs forecast to have been created, from 54,100 a month earlier. Market to watch: CAD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Playtech said that it has sold its 10% stake in Plus500 for £176 million. The proceeds will be used or general corporate purposes and to reduce net debt.  AstraZeneca said that the FDA had granted a breakthrough therapy label for its asthma treatment.  Aixtron upgraded to hold at Baader Helvea
    BioMerieux upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Equinor upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Idorsia upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Burberry cut to neutral at Goldman
    MorphoSys downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Safran downgraded to hold at SocGen
    Shire downgraded to hold at Berenberg
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    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.  
  25. JamesIG
    The Asian market index futures boards are seeing a sea of red on the back of continued EM anxieties. Dollar seeing pressure as European peers are bid up. Tesla stock slips as investor worries deepen, whilst the Tesla bond hits a record low. Uber on track for an IPO in 2019, however there are no plans to sell it's tech unit according to CEO. Goldman have dropped bitcoin trading plans for now according to reports. Crypto space crashes.  Gold seeing an increase in physical demand, whilst also helped by dollar weakness. Asian overnight: Emerging market concerns continued to weigh on markets overnight, while the bruising handed out to US tech stocks also bore down on bullish sentiment. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Australia all fell, but there was one bright spot as the CSI 300 rose 0.4%. Keep an eye on UK utilities as Ofgem proposes an energy price cap that is the biggest intervention in the UK energy market since privatisation in the 1980s.
    UK, US and Europe: US ADP numbers (delayed by a day due to the Labor Day holiday) and the ISM non-manufacturing number will be the main events today, ahead of non-farm payrolls tomorrow. Emerging market jitters will be watched closely, as will the ongoing strength in the US dollar.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.15pm – US ADP report (August): 187K jobs expected to have been created, from 219K a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (August): forecast to rise to 56 from 55.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    4pm – US EIA crude inventories: forecast to rise to -0.88M from -2.6M. Markets to watch: WTI and Brent
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Dixons Carphone reported flat like-for-like revenues in Q1, hit by difficulties in mobile phones, although consumer electronics were boosted by World Cup demand. Full-year pre-tax profit guidance was maintained at £300 million.   McCarthy & Stone has reduced its full-year operating profit forecast, due to weaker consumer spending and economic uncertainty. The firm now expects full year operating profit of £65-73 million, from the previous estimate of £65-80 million.  Melrose said that it suffered an operating loss of £256 million for the first half, down from a profit of £58 million. Trading for the second half so far remains in line with expectations.  BNP Paribas Upgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    KAZ Minerals Upgraded to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Enel Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    Scor Downgraded to Hold at SocGen
    Bodycote Downgraded to Hold at Liberum
    IMI Downgraded to Sell at Liberum
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    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
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