The IMF has cut its forecasts for growth as it says the global economic expansion is losing its momentum, projecting a 3.5% growth rate worldwide for 2019, 0.2 percentage points less than its forecasts in October. This comes just hours after China announced its slowest economic growth in almost three decades.
Meanwhile, over at the World Economic Forum in Davos, there are ongoing talks over an array of current or potential crises, from the US-China trade war to the uncertainty surrounding
Bullishness settles: The ASX200 was sold into the close on a day where the market's bullishness stalled. Nevertheless, the index ended the day in the green, adding 10 points. It's a very headline driven market currently, and the finger is being pointed to news that the US and China are squabbling over intellectual property protections as the cause for the cooler sentiment. US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Day public holiday, so the lack of tradeable information probably hindered
Chinese growth has officially fallen to its slowest in 28 years. Fourth quarter figures have been announced which confirm analysts’ expectations that growth would be 6.4%, averaging 6.6% for the year.
The US shutdown has now entered its 30th day. Trump offered protections for ‘Dreamers’ in an attempt to negotiate but this was quickly rejected by democrats as inadequate. Analysts now believe the shutdown will cause a 0.25% reduction in growth figures for the first quarter of 2019.
J
Trade War Rumors are Generating as Much Reaction as Official Announcements
The trade war remains one of the most far-reaching and economically-threatening themes currently assailing the global markets. After more than a year of escalation whereby the market has acclimated to a steady flow of stories detailing the malaise this conflict has sown, it should come as little surprise that the market has grown somewhat deadened to hints that conditions may grow marginally worse. Yet, in contrast,
The bulls are coming back: Traders received the greenlight to jump into risk assets on Friday. It culminated in a substantial jump across global equities and a certain “risk-on” attitude to trading. The impetus was arguably more technical than fundamental. The boost in sentiment in being attributed mostly the leaked news that Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin was planning to lift US tariffs on China. Whatever the motive, nefarious or simply untrue, that story was quickly denied by the White Hou
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 21 Jan 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Netflix announced subscriber growth of 8.8 million over the past year giving them a total of more than 139 million. Meanwhile, their quarterly revenue was up 27% from the same period in 2017 but the share price is down 3% as they failed to hit analysts’ expectations.
Theresa May has rejected calls of Jeremy Corbyn to rule out a no deal Brexit whilst the FTSE yesterday stayed flat.
American Indices were up yesterday with the Dow gaining 0.67% despite no resolution to the US governme
Mixed trade across the globe: Global equity indices have traded mixed in the last 24 hours. Asian trade was soft, European trade was poor, while US indices look as though they will deliver another day in the green. This may not be such a bad thing: perhaps the differing performance across regional indices is a sign of a more discerning market place. Panic about the global economic landscape has subsided for now, allowing traders to take a more nuanced view of the asset class. There is a degree o
Theresa May's government holds onto power, winning a no-confidence vote in parliament last night by 325 votes to 306. The Prime Minister has now set out to reach a cross-party solution for Brexit, although this will be extremely difficult as the PM was snubbed by the leader of the opposition last night saying that she is in charge of a "zombie government".
Sterling remained steady as the currency traded around the 1.2875 mark against the dollar after, as expected, Mrs May's government won
Bullishness rolls on: The bullish correction in financial markets continues, and global equity markets are rolling on. It’s a matter of contention as to why this rally hasn’t been faded, just in the short term. Stocks were oversold on a technical basis, and the market internals were very over-stretched at the deepest trough of the recent sell-off. An elastic band effect was expected – a brief snap back in to place. Perhaps complacency will bite at some stage, and the rally in risk-assets will pr
May's Brexit deal rejected by 230 votes making may's defeat the biggest in UK history of sitting governments. The no vote saw the GBP rise 0.05% to $1.28.
As a result of the landslide defeat May is to face vote of no confidence, the vote is expected to be held at 19:00 GMT.
Asian Stocks saw a mixed reaction following the Brexit news. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.55% to 20,442.75 and the Topix index followed suit falling by 0.32% to 1,537.77 whilst the Kospi rose 0.43% to 2,106.1.
ASX’s looming recovery: The ASX200 has clawed itself to a level on the cusp of validating the notion that the market has bottomed. It might feel that we ought to already be at that stage, given we sit 7-and-a-half per cent of the markets lows. But turnarounds take time to be confirmed, and now having broken psychological-resistance at 5800, Australian equities are inches away from that point. There are counterarguments to be made, to be fair: the recent rally has come on the back of lower volume
Crude oil bounced higher overnight after a free-fall since Friday. WTI floated past $51.50 a barrel, after gaining 1.29%, as the markets struggle to balance out the OPEC production cuts with concerns over global growth and increased US production.
Gold prices held steady as investors balance out the strong trading session in Asia with expectations of fewer interest rate hikes by the US Fed. The yellow metal lost about 0.2%, trading at $1,291.33 at 6am GMT.
Asian equities gained as
A (shallow) sea of red: There is a lot of red across the board for global equity indices to start the week, but the extent and strength of the downside swings have so far proven quite benign. The theme dominating markets yesterday and overnight was that of slower global growth. It kicked-off more-or-less following the release of some abysmal Chinese trade figures, that added further concern that the Chinese, and therefore global economy is heading for a significant slow-down. The data sparked a
Asian stocks fell as China's export data indicated a shock contraction, declining by 7.6% since July 2016. This points to deepening cracks in the world's second largest economy and increased fears of a significant slowdown in global growth and businesses.
The CSI 300 was down 0.8%, falling from a 3 week high reached on Friday. The Hang Seng slipped 1.4% as both the financial and technology sectors took a hit.
US equities ended Friday with marginal losses, however the S&P 500 m
Ending a Trade War is a Windfall for Growth?
US and Chinese trade officials met this past week to lay the groundwork for another attempt to push for a breakthrough in the superpowers’ ongoing trade war. These are lower level meetings aimed at finding concessions and terms for which Trump and Xi would eventually sign off on. With over $350 billion in goods from both countries saddled with import taxes, the economic toll the engagement is exacting is starting to show through in data. In the
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14 Jan 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Global stocks: Global equities will be forced to prove their mettle this week. Price action suggests that for many equity indices, the market is ambling at a cross-road. The macro-economic challenges moving markets in general haven't been resolved. That remained true during last week's trade, which saw global stocks move higher, in general. The difference this week is there are more numerous and higher impact risk-events that could make or break the stock market's recovery. There will be no shor
Yesterday saw further pessimism from corporate giants as the likes of Jaguar Land Rover, Macy's Inc and BlackRock Inc cut profit forecasts.
Geely Group halves 9.7% stake in Daimler AG.
Virgin Atlantic and Stobart Group to buy Flybe for £2.2million after Flybe profit warning saw shares prices tumble in October 2018. A fall from which it hasn't recovered.
Trump announced intention to bypass Congress by declaring a national emergency in order to fund wall. This comes as gover
Written by Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
Sentiment cooling: Sentiment is cooling and the drivers that have sustained global equity's recovery are subsiding. It's no cause for alarm (yet) by any means. The markets are demonstrating a level of short-term exhaustion after its chaotic December. The same risks remain; traders have just shifted their views. The concerns regarding a slow-down in global growth have abated somewhat, though the issue is still simmering. The outlook for how the Fed will a
Today is considered ‘Super Thursday’ as a number of large UK retailers are set to release their Christmas sales data. This comes after a report from the British Retail Consortium which said that average retail sales saw 0% year on year growth
Jeremy Corbyn is expected to launch an election bid if May loses the Brexit vote, scheduled for Tuesday the 15th. Yesterday saw May suffer another defeat in the house of commons which will mean she will have just 3 days to come up with a plan B if he
Written By Kyle Rodda - IG Australia
The bullish week continues: The pointy end of the week has arrived, and so far, the news flow is lining up well for the bulls. The big release, perhaps for the whole week, was this morning’s FOMC Minutes. Naturally, the information is old, relevant mostly to the December 19 period in which the central bank met. But given the market turmoil experienced since then, along with January’s nascent recovery, this set of Fed minutes has taken on slightly greater
The US government remains in shutdown as Donald Trump addressed the nation yesterday on border security in an attempt to gain support and funding for his wall, claiming that there is a "Humanitarian and National Security crisis" in the US.
A positive session for US equities yesterday amid US-China trade discussions optimism, the S&P increased by 0.97% whilst the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The Dow climbed 250 points, as it registers its first three day positive streak since November last year.
Calmer trade, vigilance remains: The sense of cautious optimism in markets remains. Extreme swings in sentiment have been absent. Calm prevails, albeit within a mindset of greater vigilance. There hasn’t been a face ripping rally, nor a vertigo inducing fall, in global equities this week. The trading activity does feel distinct from that which was experienced in December. Fear and subsequent volatility is unwinding. The VIX continues to edge lower, though at a slower pace now. Several of the pan
Trading in Asia was mixed as investors try to balance macro risks with optimism towards trade talks. The top performers were Japan’s Topix and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 both rose about 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3%.
Gold prices edged lower as the greenback’s descendant spiral seem to have stopped and amidst the possibility of a pause in further rate hikes. The February contracts hit $1291.4 around 1:10am GMT before dropping consistently during the following hours, a
1263
412
174
89
75
69
33
31
27
26
21
13
3
