ASX Index

[Guest Zero]

*****.  Spent today keeping IG in business!  Turning over a heap of binaries but got nowhere. 

All because I misread a binary strike price in my haste early morning and then fumbled along from there.  Two trades were so close it's not funny but no (probaby the equivalent of some grandma buying 3 BHP shares!).  That's how it is with binaries - a tough reminder. 

Yet - my suggestion of early morning were my winning trades (which I did trade) !  I added a few extra contracts to them (1pm and close of day) and it paid off, leaving me square and ready to fight another day. 

 

Today was a totally weird day too by the way.  Early weakness stabilised around lunch despite China weaking then, and dragging the Dow futures with it.  That weakness persisted yet the SPI/ASX held its own on low volume (both remarkable) around the 5340 level (5330 SPI), closing with some buying strength.  Odd too that today a relationship changed between the SPI and ASX.   Also remarkable - the ASX only had a 15pt range - so try making a serious trade with a CFD/Futures with that to play with.  Do-able - yet binaries were the business!  all day. 

 

If I choose to hit the snooze button over the next day or so, I will still post some trade suggestions.  If they are a bit vague and someone is honestly wanting to trade them,  me...

 

Ha - just found out there is an automatic censor on here.  I put a silly phrase at the start and that's what those ***** are.  It is not me swearing or anything, just a word with a meaning (for me / Australia) of expressing surprise-frustration in a positive sense. 

I don't mind IG doing this either. 

 

[Guest Zero]

Expect some mid-morning selling to stabilise into 1pm.  Sell late PM. 

[Guest Zero]

The ASX found some early strength off lows, stabilising into 1pm at the highs.  Had a small buy into 1pm as suggested.  Unusual to set a high the way we did today (on the SPI ie. futures market) making the PM a little less clear for me. 

But the selling crept in after 1pm - actually good to sell all PM, yet I had a few boxes I wanted ticked before selling, so waited for the last hour.  Accumulated small positions (short) across the hour as suggested.  I was selling above the market for safety, meaning if the market was around 5339 I was selling 5345 binaries (selling a ladder binary at 5345 means you DON'T think the condition of the binary, ie for the market to be above 5345, will be true by expiry which was close of day).  You don't get much for your trouble unfortunately, except a higher probability of being correct.  Risk-reward can be a bit daunting, unless you have a +ve conviction where the market is going.  Today the market was unusally flat for the last hour, so the caution wasn't necessary in hindsight (5340 binaries for example would have been closer to 40, a better risk-reward).

 

Despite all of that, my "experimentation" with the opening volatility has mucked me around again, making my job harder all day!  A good trading psychology workout, trading from a deficit - but not really recommended. 

[Guest Zero]

Good overnight lead yet I see the ASX ranging today.  Might be a wide range (like 30pts?).  Off lows into both binary expiries. 

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, a shameful day pour-moi.  Should have known better for option expiry.  Despite having some detail correct (which I can't post - could draw it but explaining it in words every day is too tricky), there was a massive down trend all day on top of this, contrary to my flatter expectations.  I was able to adjust - meaning I held off on my early strategy (sorry couldn't post) - but sat on the bench most of the day.  A few fades into the close.  To add to the "fun" I missed two binaries by 0.1 which for a 109pt day for the SPI or 96 on the ASX, 0.1 is just rubbing it in. 

 

Nothing really was spared today on the ASX, with one of our biggest supermarkets (Woolworths) down almost 10% (profit warning) - normally a boring (ie. safe) low-volatility stock.  The NAB continued to be hammered despite record profits, another big bank the ANZ likewise weaker despite record profits (future growth for both looking capped). 

 

Interesting - a classic move before 1pm was a give-away.  If I see it again I will try and post - the PM is assured if you ever see it.  But that seemed to be the tipping point from a ranging day to a mostly down-trending day. 

 

A day like today should be punished, hopefully another soon. 

[Guest Zero]

Looking for any early selling to steady into 1pm, then stay ranging, off lows into close. 

[Guest Zero]

Bit of a crazy day - as suggested strong early selling stabilised, then off lows quite safely into 1pm.  Then that momentum continued, stronger than I expected and then amped up more by the BOJ (steady) - Dow-USDJPY reaction.

But sold off strongly into the close, still safely off early lows.  I was a bit undecided after the volatility kicked up and my earlier PM intuition sort of doubled in range real-time, making me hold off on trading.  Missed some good highs, but still traded the market to range into the close as suggested, which was ok.... yet something odd happened on the close where the cash stayed steady, contrary to a falling SPI, making that suggestion seem like a dud until cash-close.  Nope. 

 

Hmm - a tiring week (intra-session binaries causing me trouble), some solid trades but lots of good opportunities in hindsight if you were quick/on the riskier side of things.  ASX weakness yesterday and today bucking the global trend.  Good.  End of month too, so next week will be an interesting one (new month).  Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, RBA too (priorities ?!) so traders will be psyched ? 

[Guest Zero]

Looking for some early weakness to steady into 1pm and range into close. 

[Guest Zero]

Hmm, one of those days when you can be correct but lose money.  Markets sold off heavily (more than I expected) until a sharp reversal before 1pm as suggested.  The speed of the reversal made it almost impossible to get a decent binary so I missed that.  Then we ranged into the close, off lows.  All was looking fine until the cash settlement, where the cash suddenly was down 5pts (a lot in binary-speak) but the SPI steady or higher.  I had bought heavily as suggested and took that one on the chin!  Annoying but not much you can do when that happens.  Secret insider business going on. 

The SPI sold off after the cash close, and closed at lows.  The Dow futures were weaker all day. 

 

Westpac (one of our big four banks) announced a record profit but the market sold it off heavily, along with the other banks.  RBA tomorrow and the chatter is that they'll drop rates to weaken our dollar - and they can do this because the "independent" big four banks just so happened to each raise their rates last week.

 

Could be a rough ride tomorrow.  I've got some work to do after today! 

[Guest Zero]

After a strong night, wouldn't be surprised to see some selling which should steady into 1pm.  PM will be tricky! but I expect an upward bias to a range. RBA might be a non-event...

[Guest Zero]

Surprisingly accurate suggestion pre-market open today.  The early selling quickly turned! (too quick to get any decent volume - well for me as I have trading limits...not of my chosing) and then it stabilised into 1pm. 

Then the RBA! - a non-event but kicked up the volatility.  I wasn't at my screen to trade - missed some good buys.  The market then shot higher but steadied and ranged into close with an upward bias.!

 

Odd - IG seemed to manually price their binaries higher at the close, as they kicked up seriously in the last minutes.  Odd!  I didn't buy at those prices, and didn't get in earlier as the range was on the borderline meaning there was a good chance it could have stayed a touch lower (which for a binary is important to know - all or nothing).  I had dialled back my risk a touch as the main game was tidying up yesterday, creatinga more positive pyschology for more trading.  Did that earlier thankfully, trading my 1pm suggestion.

Now into the SPI close we have a surge that I was half expecting earlier - to complete the PM.  The algos are so mindless sometimes. 

 

Didn't notice any Melbourne Cup effect - funny people think it's odd I don't gamble on the cup, considering I do this...Whatever.

 

The speed of some of the moves today, and the extra volatility, made it a tricky day.  There's always another trade/day if it is too much.  Like tomorrow...

 

Closed algo-perfectly at the day high for the SPI with decent buying in the last 4 mins.  The AUD was bid today too after the RBA (hold, yet room to ease mentioned in statement). 

[Guest Zero]

A strong night yet the SPI not too high above yesterday's close.  Expect any strength to fade to 1pm, steady from there into the PM.

[Guest Zero]

I'm surprised I wrote that this morning.  But I left out a detail/punctuation - "Steady into the PM close"  it should have been - with the same pattern of fading strength. 

A funny day - early strength got sold off, until China kicked things up a gear around lunch, the Dow futures following and the SPI forced to as well - rallying strongly into 1pm.  Quick and erratic after a sensible down move for most of the morning. 

Selling continued strongly into the PM, and it ranged then at the lows, with some strength off lows into the close. 

I was travelling along well until I had a technical issue which really messed me up and wiped out any gains for the day (traded my suggestion of fading strength, selling at the AM high, buying at the PM low.  A last 10sec hedge went pear shaped, not helped by IG doing something odd).  Not happy (not at IG by the way! - at my technical issue). 

Now I have to sort that. 

 

I think this has been 3 weeks of me doing this, hopefully someone has made something from my suggestions.  15 trading days approx, AM and PM session, with about 2 totally dud suggestions of the 30.  I might give it a rest - this forum is a bit quiet and I feel I am taking over/talking to myself, which is a bit pointless.  I trade what I suggest anyway - if no one knows it doesn't make any difference to me.  

[Guest Zero]

Well, that didn't last long.

 

I'll keep posting intraday ASX suggestions/action and hopefully it is useful to someone.

 

I post before the day opens to be more objective too.  Makes it a bit harder but anyway.

 

Today I am seeing some weakness to strengthen into lunch but then falter into the day close.   Might be some good sells around 1pm if you can hold on (psychologically) till the end of day.  We did a lot of work yesterday (selling) so the overnight lead is muted a bit. 

[jbtrader]

Hey Zero,

 

Great to have you posting on the index.

Sorry it's taken so long to give my appreciation.

I've never traded binarys so I am reading your posts to learn for now.

As you mentioned you are building up a nice track record of positive calls. Nice work.

Hope my suggestions can help you a bit in some way too. I look longer term and use technical analysis as my main tool.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

[Guest Zero]

Those 1pm sells - about now - might be a bit pre-emptive.  I would hold off - it seems quite a good trade but I wouldn't recommend it and be comfortable.  I'd trade it - but then I can wear the loss if incorrect.  The buying into 1pm was a better suggestion, which I did and cleaned up a total garbage morning (again experimenting with 20mins).

 

Binaries can be fexible with this setup - some cheaper sells under the market - yet I have conflicting signals and would suggest to wait.

[Guest Zero]

Those 1pm sells - about now - might be a bit pre-emptive.  I would hold off - it seems quite a good trade but I wouldn't recommend it and be comfortable.  I'd trade it - but then I can wear the loss if incorrect.  The buying into 1pm was a better suggestion, which I did and cleaned up a total garbage morning (again experimenting with 20mins).

 

Binaries can be fexible with this setup - some cheaper sells under the market - yet I have conflicting signals and would suggest to wait.

 

Sorry - this message is not posting and so is getting a bit redundant!!  Nothing I can do - the forum has taken over. 

[Guest Zero]

Hi JB,

 

Thanks for your comments - I am just glad someone is reading them.  I didn't want to make the whole forum a personal soapbox for the ASX.  I am hoping it is helpful - yet I understand the ASX is probably out of a lot of people's timezone.

 

You have made two great recent calls on gold and the Euro.  I've been watching them - and can see you have a longer term perspective - it might be useful to use binaries in conjuction with CFD's - binaries could hedge your entry, smooth out volatility.  Something I was pondering. 

Thanks again, cheers. 

[Guest Zero]

Oops, now I have a double post.  Anyway - some selling has kicked in, so if you were shorting as suggested you might not be in too much trouble, or be able to close out and re-strategise.  There probably is a better trade left in the day/week. 

 

The early selling was much stronger than I thought, and there's been buying at the lows.  Now it's as if the market is making up it's mind....  XJO around 5193, selling a binary at 5195 42-50 as expected 5190 at 52-60 - some selling now dominating.   Trade looks better now the market has calmed. 

[Guest Zero]

Well, I did warn it would be tough on the nerves to trade the suggestion, and the update to re-consider was an attempt take the stress levels down a touch.

If you got in on the 5195 you would have been safe, a tidy short.  However you would have had to ride out it being in profit to going to about 80 (sell 42 so 0 is a loss), then back to 50 or so - then the last 10mins of blackout time...waiting till zero!

But its all or nothing, so all the market had to do was close below 5195, which it did (5193.00).  The 5190 was a bigger risk, and should/could have been closed (for a small profit) when the market did fall.  

 

That aside, there was some buying opps in the last 30mins that were profitable too.  I took that option, after waiting and watching for the PM to play out a bit more as suggested. 

 

Bit of a busy day anyway early, 1pm and into the close (I wonder if anyone else ie. those in the know - trade binaries).  The 20minute binaries aren't my friend lately and are wasting my day.  I don't post these as it would be irresponsible. 

The NAB went ex-dividend and didn't hold up that well.  More of that tomorrow I believe with WBC (two of our four big banks). 

 

China and Japan were both strong today too bucking the overnight lead.  The strength in China earlier in the week was from an old media release that got re-commented on by an official.  Repeating old news and the market surges, dragging the (global) correlated algo's with it.  That's what we're trading against these days.  Forget TA or FA. 

 

[Guest Zero]

Friday pre-non-farm payrolls.  I expect any strength to sell off AM and then hold steady into 1pm, and then any selling in the PM to recover to hold steady into the close.  Waiting for tonight - not sure how tradeable today will be, but there will be some positioning going on most likely. 

[Guest Zero]

A bit early but the selling has kicked in, and waiting for the buyers to show their hand here.  The high definitely been set - shorted! and wishing IG had more firepower to give me!!  Closed it out and going out for a while. 

[Guest Zero]

The algo's seem to have a non-farm payroll setting, as today was deja-vu. 

Absolutely crazy into and after the cash close - the SPI ramped up about 22pts in 10mins (had done 18pts approx the 3hours earlier) with buying. 

Such strength at the end of the day and week and pre-data release ?  Makes absolute sense...  Unless they were hedging with the VIX or something.  I don't know. 

I just trade it, don't ask questions.

 

My suggestions of today were not too bad in hindsight - add a touch of spikey-ness to what I wrote. 

Early selling fell further than I expected but the buying did kick in where I hinted despite some overshoot - and stayed +ve into the 1pm. 

That went higher than I expected too, with any selling up there (near/at opening highs!) met with buying.  That buying steadily pushed into the close (and then beyond). 

I was having a light day after wasting a good week - but sold early highs as mentioned, missed my buy suggestion into 1pm (caught flat-footed after leaving the trading-floor for a few hours - that is my house, I trade for myself from home!  Just sounds more interesting) - but then bought into the close as suggested.  Wish I was able to buy more contracts...But thems the rules.  

 

BHP got punished (ie.sold off about 2.5%) after some bad news in Brazil - heavy volume too.  That's a big component of the ASX obviously - so we held up well in hindsight (ASX 5215 up 22). 

It was the ANZ, not the WBC as I said incorrectly yesterday, which went ex-div.  WBC must be next week.  This ex-div fiddling makes things a tad tricky as the SPI and ASX cash are re-aligning themselves after these dividends "go out"  of the index (via the share price falling obviously).

 

A good trading day to end the week if you've put in the screen time in the past to observe and were on the job.  Bigger day and more tradeable than I expected - wonder what that means for tonight....!?  Who's buying pre-non-farm?

[Guest Zero]

Monday, normally a in-house day.  Expecting selling to stabilise around 1pm, then ranging in the PM (a touch off lows range).  Bias to the short on close.

[Guest Zero]

A big day on the ASX - strong volume, heavy selling.  That's despite Friday locally and on the US, and despite the rest of Asia and Dow futures being stronger/positive.

 

Who cares why - the selling stabilised late-lunch, a safe buy at 12:35pm into 1pm as hinted, which was off the lows by a good 15pts.  Yet the level of selling was much more than I expected, so the better trade would have been shorts first 20mins of the day. 

The selling continued into mid-PM, then the buying kicked in and a good 30pt rally steadied ranging into the close.  Again more extreme than I expected - yet it did range then into the close with a negative ie. sell bias.  That turned out much better than I thought on expiry, hopefully someone traded my suggestion.  I should have !  Well I did, but I reduced my positioning by too much. 

Some conflicting signals made it a tricky day to trade live, with two large falls doing all the damage quickly, then both ending with strong (smaller) surges (buying) countered by stronger selling into that.  Tough too to look in hindsight and see all the possibilities, as it could have been a cracker of a day.  The negative psychology of missed opps. can be as draining as losses - don't. 

 

The bigger losses were with BHP and ANZ on large volume.  In general strong volume for a Monday, and futures volume also above average. 

[Guest Zero]

Despite the negative US lead (well still an hour to go till close but...) - I am expecting buying to dominate into both expiries (1pm and daily) today.  A bit of a risk but that's the game.

[Guest Zero]

Strong selling early AM steadied (largish range) and then buying dominated into 1pm expiry.  Some good binaries to be had - I was impressed even though I had expected it!  That faded quickly and strongly - to new lows - and then ranged till about 3pm, when some stray bulls stampeded the market home!  Impressive again - made new highs (for a daily 60pt range made in the last 1.5hours that's big).  Again, good binaries to be had, as suggested, if you were buying.

 

While my suggestions may seem so simplistic and vague, I am trying to give the highest probability tips for the day (pre-market opening, so I am unsure of how big the moves will be etc), and least unambiguous.  I sort of expect anyone following them would have enough smarts to put them into the context of the day.  So today's suggestion buy pre-expiry for example - I am assuming you know to wait till about 30mins pre-expiry to see if what I am suggesting is probable, and where you could get in etc, and again in line with the suggestion, not to try and pick a top and fade the rally, or pre-expiry expect new lows into the expiry and short the market.  If I am too vague sorry. 

 

Today is was also an example of the frustrating part of what in hindsight was a great day - getting out of sync with the market and then being half a step behind.  You keep expecting a pull-back for a better entry, then get left behind.  Like surfing you have to match the speed of the wave to catch it (paddling).  A good thing with binaries is that you can wait/risk the next level (for a ladder or range binary) and hope the move will continue - get a similar risk reward than if you got in early (assuming the trend continues - though technically the risk is a bit higher).  The danger is that in doing that you pick a top and it relaxes, never to visit that range again.  The ideal is to buy before the breakout (ideal - but harder).  So while it was a massive day in hindsight, it was harder than it looked.  The surges were volatile too at times, catching me out twice - in 1min pre-expiry (hourly binaries, not 1pm or close of day) the market dropped like 5pts after being stationary.

 

Ha - nice close Mr SPI. 

 

The miners were positive today on the ASX, with the banks copping most of the selling, yet they obviously were off their lows into the close.  All the majors had strong volume, and the SPI again had higher than average (in my opinioin) volume.

Dow futures were positive all day, increasing around lunch and China data (inflation - nothing spectacular).   China has fallen into the SPI close.  Yesterday we led the world lower, interesting to see what tonight will bring.

[Guest Zero]

Looking to buy mid-morning, then steady for the PM.

 

ODD - curious - on the 11/11 (here in Australia) the Dow had a range of 111. 

[Guest Zero]

What a weird day - from my perspective anyway.  Nothing seemed to "make sense" - erratic, surges up and down, selling into the up moves yet still dragged higher, weird ranges, the SPI and XJO out of sync and that was varying at times too.

 

I was a bit early/late with my suggestion - which I know is never accurate as I make those decisions real-time.  I won't put that in in the future - unless I can update it real-time (I was absent for the mid-morning).  There were some buying opps. early morning, 1pm, and about 3pm.  I thought the early buys would hold up a bit, but like I said, strange day and it fell back 1pm.  Yet into the close it was steady and off lows/near highs - with a touch of erratic-ness.  The cash held steady while the futures blew off steam on the cash close.  I had hedged the close as suggested and was fortunate to survive.  I was very surprised.  Closed out some longer-duration (for me that's like 1hour) trades mid PM, as I didn't trust what I was seeing.  There'll be better days ahead.

 

Today in (major) share specific action  WBC (Westpac) went ex-div. and BHP was sold off again (RIO held up). 

Now the market is waiting for China data - might be a big night session for the SPI.  Could account for some of the weirdness today.. 

 

Surprise surprise - the Chinese are so accurate in their forecasting that everything came in basically unch or virtually as expected.... Industrial Production, Retail Sales - so important data.  But no fireworks there. 

[Guest Zero]

Dow is not closed but I expect sellers to eventually take-over in the AM, till 1pm, where/when it might get a bit choppy.  Then ranging higher off lows into the end of day.