ASX Index

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Hi Everyone, I'm new to technical analysis and trading generally, just wanted to get people's thoughts is there a reverse head and shoulders forming on the 4hr/daily chart?

[Guest Zero]

Hi TheSurgeon ,

 

I don't trade 4hr daily charts or use TA for it - but had a look and I would say it is more like a channel, ranging at those highs.  It probably has broken higher now anyway, whether a channel or a inv. HS.  Either way you've got to decide what that means (buy - for how long/many points etc.). 

I would say that TA is subjective and you've got to be flexible.  To the point of it being irrelevant could be an argument - but that's for you to decide.  All the best if you are trading the move.  Cheers.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Cheers Zero. Yeah, the more I trade the more I realise it doesnt matter what "you think" before the trade haha. The market's gonna do what its gonna do. And you'll only really know after the move has finished. Yeah- gonna wait and see if there are any long entry points tomorrow... its looking pricey right now but if it gets closer to the 1hr moving average I'd be tempted. Happy trading everyone.

[Guest Zero]

Today I expect any early strength to weaken, and the bounce to be faded into 1pm.  After 1pm, the weakness should rally, range then keep steady (positive bias) into close. 

 

The $AUD is still strong, best two-three days I've seen in ages.  Meaningful or ?

[Guest Zero]

What happened today?  After the gangbusters week today was a no-show.  Range of 26 - boring.  How it could keep it there and Asia also snooze along is telling...

Today panned out as expected - faded surges into the 1pm.  Yet it was hard to trade, as the surges were like 5pts or more, and it was easier for the binaries to be priced to safety (for IG).  The PM also meandered as suggested ranging into the close with a positive bias.  Yet I got burnt on a binary - trading my suggestion by didn't see a China collapse into our 16:10, the SPI moving more than it had the past two hours! (in 1min) to drag the ASX lower on expiry.  Not a good way to end the week. 

 

Can't read much into today's correlations - we just decoupled for most of the day.  The Dow futures stayed flat, Nikkei mostly flat or negative, though it and China rallied into 4:30pm close for the SPI.  The Dow futures didn't. 

 

I AM NOT HAPPY EITHER that IG have started to close their Tunnel and 1-touch binaries 5mins before the close of day.  I will make my displeasure known - it is a bit of a joke really.  They have 17pt spreads and can control the price of the binary - that in itself should be enough, but now they are closing them from trading early.  I mean, what next - 10mins, 15mins before close, then you may as well not have them. 

It gives a negative impression to me about them (if they can't make money FROM CLIENTS, and not from the spread, they'll change the rules to suit themselves so they can).  That's the obvious impression I am given, until I am convinced otherwise.   It is quite a disappointment really, and lowers my confidence in IG and my respect for them.

[Guest Zero]

Today I expect early selling of overnight (Friday night) strength, and of a bounce, yet 1pm should keep off lows.  Then a range-weakening to a lower range into the close.  The expiry I'd expect to be off lows too.    Might be a little rocky around 12pm. 

[Guest Zero]

Another tough day with little room for error.  As suggested, the morning sold off, then sold a bounce (the ranges nothing really - say less than 20).  And into 1pm the market rallied as expected.   IG gave me nothing on a fill so I just closed it out, not worth the effort.  A bit annoying the small volume, lack of fills and closing the 1-Touch early!! 

 

It got a bit rocky around 12:30pm, not 12pm - as China's National Plunge Protection team had to justify their weekend meeting and they jumped from about 12 to 80 in 5 seconds.  Then they kept higher all day around 40 to 50.

The Nikkei couldn't get a go on, and we were mostly coupled to it - though come probably 2:30pm the SPI decided it was staying higher.  Ranged at those higher levels ( a touch higher than expected, meaning a few binaries were duds on the close), then fell and ranged into the close as suggested.  I sold the close (= range into the close). 

An intentional day - when we don't budge like in the afternoon, someone big is doing something.  They were selling there, and buying the futures, unwound that a little on the close, but interesting... 

 

I was thinking - someone else can give a daily wrap up if they want - I'd be curious to see how someone else watches the (whole) day and describes the action.  While I try to be neurtral, knowing exactly what I meant with my suggestions pre-market-open, my comments at the end of day would have a slight bias to my suggestions (as I know what I meant to say).  Of course I'm being honest (the prices are there for anyone to check) - but when I say ....... someone else might have said ...... , and that would be interesting for me to know if I was to describe my anticipated moves more clearly.  That's also why I trade what I comment.   

 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Will be interesting to see if it closes above 5180 (strong down trend resistance) in the next couple of days. There could be some good opportunities on the short side this afternoon or tomorrow but wall street's downtrend resistance only really kicks in at around 17500 so there's plenty of room for a move higher.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

dont mean to be nosey but do you trade full-time for yourself or for a company?

[Guest Zero]

I'd look for two lots selling off highs, moreso into 1pm.  Then weakness should gradually strengthen into the close/expiry. 

[Guest Zero]



 

Hi TheSurgeon - be interesting to watch those levels you mention.  There is a bit of a squeeze with crude oil (and since last night iron ore) which is keeping the SPI strong it seems. 

 

I trade purely for myself with my own ideas - and full-time, day-trading. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Cool - that sounds like it would be awesome.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

A day that should have been punished!  The early rally was half-hearted, the second waiting for perhaps Japan, then sold off strongly.  I was out then so missed it - expected it a little later, or more gradual.  The selling continued into 1pm as suggested - helped along by China capitulating and dragging everything down with it.  By 12:55pm it had put in a low for the 1pm expiry and kept a few points off those lows.  I had missed the move meaning I was second guessing the lows, so decided to not trade the 1pm with binaries (short a CFD for my lunch money). 

 

The weakness continued after lunch - despite and improvement (slight) in the Nikkei and China (and therefore Dow futures) we were still selling.  But around 3pm the lows were set and as suggested it was a gradual recovery into the close.  BUT - the trade was only good if you bought at the lows (which was the tricky part - I had about a 65% confidence-level) as I could see the selling pressure still around and expected that to dominate still on expiry. 

The expiry was pretty amazing.  The small strength of the previous hour continued for a minute or so - then someone just dumped on the market, dropping the SPI 15pts! with continual selling, and dragging the XJO down about 8pts into expiry (more than average for those last 10mins where the binary market and XJO is closed) - but off lows and a 5105 binary level.  I expected the selling so traded the lower range wrt. 4pm.  I didn't want to buy ladders earlier as IG had their binaries priced too highly, maybe for a bounce (or maybe not intentionally - seemed a bit high early on). 

 

Apologies too - sometimes there are tweaks I make to my suggestions on the run, or with tight ranges the suggestion is only good for 1 or 2 binary levels.  Part of the unknowns and what makes it tougher in reality (than a two-line comment early morning). 

 

The Nikkei has continued lower after the SPI closed, and with the weak China lead from today showing no regard for the oil/iron-ore rally from last night, tonight (EU / US)  will be interesting. 

 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Should be an interesting open this morning. Think the bears might have their way but who knows? The support at 5088 has held so far.

[Guest Zero]

I'd expect attempted buying off weakness, may find some action around the mentioned levels by TheSurgeon?.  In the afternoon, a rally off weakness should relax a little into the close. 

 

Edited due to a "sensitive" auto-censor.

[Guest Zero]

Bit of a silly ASX day that comes around now and then - as if globally nothing matters.  The market rallied off weakness as suggested into 1pm - IG giving me dud volume which I am not too happy about.  So just bailed on some profitable binaries - can't take them seriously with the games they seem to play.

 

Then the SPI refused to fall despite the Nikkei weakening, along with the Dow.  China started the weakness, but we pretended we weren't listening.  We just waited till they rallied, then rallied with them.  Surged mid afternoon as suggested, then relaxed into close.  Against my better judgement I traded my comment (I sensed something dodgy was up) - and post-close into the expiry the SPI surged, knocking a bit of skin off (me) but I should have known better.  The strength continued after the XJO closed, then fell back from the days highs - algo perfect in the afternoon.  Makes sense in light of the no-fall mentality of the session. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Wish I'd read your comment before jumping in with a couple of ill timed shorts haha.

 

Will see what sort of levels/patterns form overnight. Still looking for a good opportunity to short the long term down trend but maybe there's more behind last week's move than I first thought?

[Guest Zero]

Sorry to hear  - it was a shonky day for sure.  You support levels were close to the lows for the day, when it did a 180, so that was a good early call.   

Not sure what to expect for the next 24hours - think we're overcooked, but then with the ECB hyping up expectations... ?

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Yeah- with the ECB coming in overnight think I might take the day off, its probably not a smart time to short on a technical set up (even with the 200dma and long term downtrend at around 5180). Think today might be bullish or sticky. What do you reckon ?

[Guest Zero]

Hi @The Surgeon.

 

Today I expect slight selling from overnight to strengthen, but then relax back a bit, off lows into 1pm expiry.  Then a range should develop, with an upside bias. 

 

Wouldn't want to second guess tonight - in my opinion, some of those longer-term technicals may be out-of-context with the new developments tonight. 

[Guest Zero]

Interesting day - some parts seemed controlled, some seemed a bit messy.  The AM meandered as suggested - the ranges were much tighter than I expected, so that sort of mucked up my comment from this morning - in hindsight.  Watching it real-time it was clearer to me.  The weakness rallied from stronger selling about 12pm (though the ranges were similar so technically a range AM) - and faded from the high into 1pm (yet off earlier lows).  I traded that (fading the rally) because IG were pricing their ladder binaries too high (so didn't want to buy off lows).  I'll either buy or sell depending on their bias, so why not keep it neutral.  AND why the low fills - I will keep mentioning this as it seems like it is personal ! and unprofessional. 

 

The PM ranged, though a tad lower than I expected (though seeing the morning action it was expected).  Had a good support level where I bought heavily (sold 1 Touch) - they got taken in 2mins of a spike down (ie. touch to 100 meaning a loss) - out of a whole day 6hours 10mins, 2mins or 0.3points! can cost a lot.  It would have closed at zero too.  The dangers of binaries - I traded it back with some higher risk strategies.

The range into the close was slightly negative, not slightly positive like I expected.  I traded a range anyway so was safe either way (expected neutral).  There was heavy selling into 16:10 with the Dow falling strongly, and the Nikkei.  They recovered and dragged the SPI higher after the cash close, but only by 10pts say. 

 

It seems that were weren't too keen on much today - would half-heartedly rally with other markets, but wanted to stay on the 5150 level and buy there so did our own thing there.  Was almost forbidden to go above the day open which is very interesting, and is why I say controlled but a bit messy. 

 

What that means for tonight - hard to say.  If anything buying in anticipation of a rally for an ECB cut.  Hmm - I will be quite interested to see what actually happens. 

[Guest Zero]

Today after some initial down/up I expect the SPI to rally to a high then fade down into 1pm (would probably look for a sell up there as a better binary risk:reward).  Then a range so to speak (weakness, rally, fading, ending up almost flat ?) - into the close and expiry (may finish up a little v 4pm). 

[Caseynotes]

Good Thread, Zero + TheSurgeon, I don't follow indices though I know I should (and bonds for that matter) I'm presuming your talking spoos, I don't know the IG codes for indices.

But you both seem to be talking sense, which is unusual and interesting.

Keep it live, keep it going...

 

[Guest Zero]

HI Caseynotes ,

 

Thanks - I'm the same - should be trading bonds, especially in this current economic craziness.

 

I trade ASX futures - via a CFD (IG).  APM6 is the code for the upcoming contract.  Don't trade the SPOOs as I am sleeping!

Your contributions/comments are welcome - if not here then elsewhere, you seem to know what you're talking about.

Cheers.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Interesting start to the morning. If we crack 5130 then it could get ***** quickly.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

I wasn't swearing but got censored? Odd. Anyway, you get the idea.

[Caseynotes]

I bowed out today, no trades, whiplash mania eurodollar, no-one knew what it all meant. Zero interest rates - whipsaw then higher euro? what?

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Yeah. I think the higher Euro came after Draghi's comment that he doesn't expect more cuts.

[Caseynotes]

And also implied negative rates OR even worse 'helicopter money'. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Haha - "helicopter money" - it would probably work better than QE has.