ASX Index

[Guest Zero]

I expect some early strength (from the Friday night lead) to fade, selling kick in, then an attempted rally to also die out, sell off. 

After 1pm any weakness should rally back then range into the close, a tad higher on expiry. 

 

I haven't posted here much as I wasn't trading as heavy and didn't want to post without backing up my suggestions with trades.  But if no one cares, then I'll just post some suggested action for the day regardless. 

 

China back online today too, which may add a bit of extra volatility around lunch time. 

[jbtrader]

Hey Zero,

I really enjoy the read.

 

Keep it up.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Hi JB,

 

Thanks!  Good to hear - hopefully it was useful today ?!  I'll keep it up.

[Guest Zero]

Today my suggestions were remarkably good (I am surprised myself) - I didn't trade them so silly me. 

The opening strength sold off, with rallies faded until about lunch, when the rally held it's ground somewhat.  Faded into expiry, then the buyers stepped in on any weakness and drove it higher nicely.  Ranged into the 16:00 at these higher levels, then went gangbusters for a final 10min burst higher.  The XJO making a large gain despite the SPI, which dudded my hedged position.  I was trying that out today (binaries + CFD), wasting money! rather then trading my earlier post's suggestions.

 

The morning ASX selling was odd today, in that the Dow was up strongly all session along with the Nikkei.  They continued to strengthen (the Nikkei ridiculous up over 7%) and dragged the SPI higher in the PM.  China was strong, fixing their currency higher too which helped the markets. 

 

Expect that strength to at least hold up for the European open. 

[Guest Zero]

With no lead from the US overnight, the SPI will likely weaken on open, with buyers trying to push it higher (NAB results released pre-open).  Yet I expect to not get too far, and it to fall back then range - probably with a positive bias if that. 

After lunch the selling should recover somewhat into a range into close. 

 

[Guest Zero]

Another ridiculous day - seems to be the norm now.  Strong selling into 12pm which recovered into 1pm - well ranged, surged, ranged, surged, (upward bias to range).

In the PM the buying continued as suggested, and it was ranging into the close - but then came 16:00 when it took off - like yesterday.  Most unusual.  Strong - good if you were buying as my bias was, yet any attempt to cap the move would have ended in tears. 

I saw something quite interesting - I was watching a tunnel binary, and the ASX was near but then faded, came back then faded - for about 1hour (my range suggestion).  Yet over that time IG repriced it higher.  In the last 2mins of the day the SPI/ASX revisted the highs and IG weren't adjusting the price of the binary lower - seen it all before, it won't touch...  I had an intuition it was going to crack higher then and there - watching IG suddenly they dropped the price of the binary by 20 with nothing changing (no price on any market) - I knew I'd missed out then - suddenly the SPI started higher, IG priced the binary lower again and then boom, burst higher touching the range 15:59 - before the day close (it went higher anyway so would have still went to 0).  I missed everything. 

BUT - IG must have about a 10sec heads up on these moves somehow.  Maybe some algorithm detecting something somehow....  Hmm.

 

Strong forces pushing the market around - the ASX that is - CBA ex-div. today, NAB ok announcement.  That seemed to be sold off - then in the PM it was as if some news came out as the market rallied 105pts!!  I was long at the low but closed it out for zero. 

The RBA minutes weren't new, but the markets may have made up something from them.  The Nikkei took off to be about 1% higher and the Dow up 90 - possibly dragging the SPI up (yet the Nikkei is a joke). 

Something else today I just noticed, which could explain it but I've never watched it before to know.  Will investigate. 

 

Anyway - big day and a big week still to come. 

[Guest Zero]

The overnight lead was in fact a catch-up, yet the SPI will try and continue higher in the AM, probably two attempts but sellers will sell into that, forcing the market lower.  But by 1pm some buyers will have steadied that off the lows.  The PM will look to buy after some ranging, pushing the market a little higher but then it should consolidate into the close. 

 

More reporting today, notably Woodside.  Might open the ranges/volatility up a bit for the above suggestions. 

[Guest Zero]

Early attempts to buy were pretty lame on the open, as the market tanked strongly in the first hour.  But there was a strong rally off the lows, earlier than I anticipated.  That steadied and then surged again into 1pm.  Continued higher after 1pm as expected, a little too excited it seems as it pulled back then sold off strongly! - consolidating as expected however much lower than I thought.  Bit annoyed with myself for missing that - I was outside for a break.  Then my platform crashed in the last 2mins - good timing.  Logged back in ok, but by then had missed the bus.

 

The moves are again seeminly correlated with the Nikkei mostly.  The poor report from Woodside didn't help (down 7%).  Other positive profit reports didn't seem to please the market either. 

 

Despite the big swings, today was a tidy day from the algo's perspective.  Few little footprints to give themselves away. 

China revalued it's yuan lower today - most since first week in Jan. 

[Guest Zero]

Strong night, strong lead with oil up too.   I expect the SPI to sell off over the AM, then range in the afternoon, off lows.

 

Telstra reports, as does QBE (Insurance) and a few other companies.  Big day possibly.

[jbtrader]

Love your work Zero.

 

Cheers.

[Guest Zero]

Hi JB,

 

Thanks!  Nice to know it's being viewed...

[Guest Zero]

Well, if today's earlier suggestion seem wonky it's because I left out the action into 1pm.  I was rushed this morning - sorry - if anyone was trading my ideas... ??  Which is unlikely but still...

 

Today was a strong day all round.  Good profit results, good lead from crude/Dow, Nikkei staying strong.  All "meaningless" to me - I don't trade fundamentals.  But it fills blogs/newletters. 

Anyway - the SPI (just a detour - I intentionally said SPI this morning and not ASX as the ASX would rally on the open, yet the SPI had already done that work the previous night, so could have moved independently for a while) - rallied a touch after the XJO caught up to it, then sold off as suggested into 12am.  Then (what I left out) the SPI decided it wasn't going any lower (I have a signal that showed this - didn't post in trade of the month sorry) and rallied strongly into 1pm.  Then relaxed from highs, but the buying continued strongly into 4pm and then after into the expiry 4:10pm, though the buying after 4pm was not as strong as Mon / Tues. 

Tough to trade as IG were all over it and pricing things accordingly - so giving nothing away today (binaries that is).   They are normally pretty good to be honest.

 

Jobs data today here back to reality - interesting that the previous two results were almost admitted to be bogus by the Treasury Secretary (I think) - so today's may have been more legit.  $AUD fell after, SPI rallied eventually but there were too many other forces that could explain the strength so it can't be concluded the rally was due to a potential rate cut.  I think everyone everywhere is always spinning that anyway so it goes without saying. 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Flat lead, tricky day to anticipate.  I expect weakness to be bought into 1pm, then the market to consolidate - relax then range, with an upward bias.  Will have to make decisions on the run a bit today.  A much weaker Nikkei will make things "interesting". 

 

Some more results today, notably Medibank Private (large health fund) and Santos (gas oil). 

[Guest Zero]

Well, despite a lot of cross-currents, today evolved as anticipated.  The SPI was a reluctant seller today, with a dead-weight of the Nikkei always in the background (down about 2% on average).  In the last min of the XJO today, the Dow rallied about 30, the Nikkei 100, and the SPI is now surging higher.  The XJO is closed so these moves are not on my radar - but it is messing up some tidying signals I had all day. 

Anyway - as suggested the market was weaker early, ranged at the lows, then bought into 1pm (ie. off lows).  Would relax, then surge quickly within a range - not being dragged down by the Nikkei yet rallying when the Nikkei did. 

Then it consolidated a bit lower, relaxed further then ranged into 16:00, but for the expiry it rallied as the upward bias suggested.  Some good binaries there to end the week - BUT I was out of action today trading as IG had a data feed glitch (Reuters apparently) meaning they couldn't price their binaries.  Serious problem - would have been annoying for them!  So I just sat it out and watched.  The CFD action for me wasn't smooth enough to be bothered (a better day for binaries). 

 

If it is not clear - my suggestions may seem useless, but they are for binary trades.  So to be the "binary whisperer" : me saying "weakness bought into 1pm" - means that it will not rally in the first, say 30mins, but sell off a little yet it won't trend down but find a level - then come 1pm it will be off lows.  So you could sell early highs via binaries, and then wait to see how things panned out - then sell the lows, or buy ladders off the lows into 1pm.  You wouldn't expect a new low into 1pm - that info in itself for a binary could make a good return. 

PM the same - I suggested weakness, then ranging with an upward bias.  You could see there was weakeness and a range by 3:30pm, so for 4pm close you'd try and sell lows or buy binaries (ladders) at the money (knowing they'll expire at 100 as the XJO will tick higher than their strike). 

 

Always trickier than that real-time, but from a two line suggestion it is possible to work some binaries. 

 

Results were poor too for Santos as expected ($2.8billion writedown) and ok for Medibank.  Markets were "broadly" weaker (as the terminology goes) with low volume (less than average say) for  the majors, but higher on the dividend paying stocks. 

 

That last minute rally of the Dow (may be China related) seems a bit silly, so who knows what tonight will bring.  Last night it seemed the latest rally fizzled a bit so tonight will be important.  Maybe a repeat of our market today?

 

(Actually - despite me thinking that closing surge for the SPI was messing up signals - it didn't which is interesting, and it showed another interesting thing too.  I love it when an apparently random, though correlated, move just so happens to conform with a sensible algo-controlled move...! ).

[Guest Zero]

A bit of a mixed day ahead - early strength should relax (sell off), but stabilise into 1pm (off earlier lows).  Weakness after 1pm should be bought into the close, but more-so a range/steady into the end of day.  End of month makes things tricky! 

[Guest Zero]

What a way to start the week.  While my suggestions were good to trade, some of the hourly moves today took me by surprise (which happens a lot).  So at the end of day it seems like a lot went begging, but the whole day seemed a bit weird to me.  The early strength faded into 1pm - the strength seemed overdone on the second rally - and looked like it wasn't coming back.  Yet China crumbled around 12pm - the SPI was holding back the fall, not falling when either the Dow/China or Japan fell, but rallying a few points when they bounced.  1pm was off the early lows, but I didn't expect the rally into 12pm to be so strong - so I left that session untraded. 

Then 1pm the SPI seemed to let go for 5mins, dropping quickly as you'd expect with the rest of Asia, then it seemed to rally again - I left it for an hour only to see it had fallen right back to the early lows - where it should have been you could say, as the Dow, China and the Nikkei were basically unchanged (still down) since 2pm.  Then the SPI ranged at those lows as suggested, and kept off them into the day close/expiry.  But it was a crazy ride - I had traded my suggestion with some binaries, and at one stage it was looking all over, then looking good, then looking like it was an over-correction (for my range binary) - snuck in on expiry.  Between 4pm-4:10pm  the selling on close was as strong as the fake rally at 4pm.  Yet it came back to the price where all the serious business was being done over the PM - then popped higherafter 4:10pm expiry despite nothing else rallying (if anything Nikkei, China falling).  Again "manipulated". 

 

The Nikkei finally capitulated around 4pm, yet China was the standout, down on average 4%.  The Dow also staying weaker.  End of month like I said - the SPI/XJO obviously had stuff to take care of - who knows what.  Amazing "someone" can call the shots like that....

 

Strong volume on the XJO too, for a Monday, confirming the above.  Probably some dividends coming out of the index in the next day or so. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Whats everyone's thoughts on the rest of the trading day? Over 4930 or back into the 4800s?

[Guest Lepacas]

This weeks a200 hangs on RBA rhetoric and GDP numbers and BOT , ranging for a week , daily close all important to break range , shorts around 4900 been my play recently . No different today

 

[Guest Zero]

Hi Lads!  Nice to have some other members involved on the ASX thread. 

 

Today the SPI is showing us its wilder side.  What a crazy morning.  I love the vertical drop around 11:00am (on the SPI).  I was out and couldn't believe it when I got home.  The rebound was just as silly.

 

Anyway -  today is hard to be precise in terms of price levels - the RBA not making it easy and the morning's action giving you an indication that any move could be amped.  I would expect it to close at 16:10 off it's lows.  How low it goes, and then how much higher, is not worth knowing (in my opinion) - wait and see.  I'm trading binaries too, so can trade without those specifics. 

 

At the moment there is a bit of a ruckus going on with Asia - waiting for China data, the Dow futures lower despite nothing else really falling - so add all of that into the mix.  A day of drawdowns, and stopping out for a lot of traders I'd imagine. 

 

Good trading anyway! 

[Guest Zero]

Hi Lepacas ,

 

Interesting post - I'm wondering what BOT is (first thought Bank of Thailand - that seems irrelevant however). 

 

If you're sitting on some shorts (SPI futures/CFD I assume) how are you playing that - how long for or how many points short, or any stops?  Cheers.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Cheers Zero,

 

Yeah - Im glad I got out of my long position early in the morning. No clue whats gonna happen either but hoping that the asx breaks out of the downtrend above 4930/4960.

 

Ive been looking at the monthly charts lately and it looks like we're about to bottom out of the channel that started in 2008. I know a lots changed macroeconomically and commodities-wise since then but I cant see it dropping below 4600.

 

What are people's long term projections/guesses?

 

[Guest Zero]

Just answering my own question  ,  BOT - Balance of Trade?  Thurs.  Thanks.

[Guest Lepacas]

---

Zero wrote:

Just answering my own question

@Lepacas

 ,  BOT - Balance of Trade?  Thurs.  Thanks.

---

 

 

Correct Balance of Trade , I would call that a very neutral RBA ann today , minimal reaction all round ..  http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-04.html    ... stevens says not much of anything ... GDP tommorow should be pivottal imo  . SPX on channel support so no surprise to see green US overnight   , after all that early session volatility turned out a fizzer , pays to bank the decent fast moves quickly , at least partial profits  ...  

[Guest Lepacas]

Aust data for rest of week , times are QLD time  ...    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ccbx0J1VIAARNvy.jpg:large

 

 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Thanks !

[Guest Zero]

After a strong lead, the market will relax from early strength but then steady and move higher into 1pm.  The PM should again relax but then find a range into the end of day/expiry. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Yeah - as of 9:30 its looking well overbought on the 1hr charts. Will be interesting to see what happens with the GDP figures and what the reaction will be

[Guest Lepacas]

GDP stellar number that sent AUD vertical and got the bid pumping on banks ... http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0 US bid up overnight as anticipated but a little higher than expected tbh . SP500 have some overhead resistance at 1990-2000 level so I expect A200 upside to be limited . Highest weekly close for year XJO is 5005 , that remains the benchmark if XJO is too push higher towards daily resistance at 5200 levels , I think the easy money for longs has gone so it gets harder from here , still willing to buy dips .. BOT tomorrow morning , given the week commodity prices in Jan wouldn't expect a beat but looking forwards that like GDP has to be looking better ... AUD reflecting that above 72 , maybe another daily higher high tomorrow XJO , after that I be looking for swing high to short ....

[Guest Zero]

Quite a strong day on the ASX helped by a strong lead overnight obviously.  Yet the GDP numbers didn't do much for the SPI - sent the $AUD off like a rocket!  Yet the SPI meandered until about 12pm, then it moved higher as suggested, when the Nikkei and China got a boost from ???  The surge into 1pm happened early then mucked around until 12:57 (5000 being defended - great to watch while Asia goes off) then got a bit of a move on up but faded into 1pm expiry.  So it was easy for IG to price that safely, and I didn't trade that.  Was so close to shorting the 1pm surge but it happened too late - IG were too keen and could have given away 70pts on a ladder binary (5010 Ladder expired 0).

After 1pm the SPI was playing catch up - 5000 was fiercely defended before 1pm, but after 1pm there was no looking back, with all Asian markets moving higher.  The SPI shot up another 40points or more, the XJO a high of 5047 but then faded into the close as suggested.  The fall was stronger/further than I expected, so I held off trading until near the close.  IG were pricing some ladders nicely due to the strength of the whole day, so a short there for 30 with an 8pt buffer was too good to leave.  The range from 4pm-4:10pm expiry as suggested was right near the 100pt (25pt Ladder) range for the day, and could have been a good risk (about 55-60 buy near close). 

 

A strong day with strong volume for equities.  A bit of divergence suggesting there's some hedging up here.  Dow futures not too extreme, yet the Nikkei up over 4% and China has moved even higher in the last 15mins to also be up over 4%.  No comment.

 

Wishing I traded currencies more with that nice move in the $AUD.  Some more experienced traders are looking at the EUR/AUD. 

[Guest Zero]

Just a note - I mentioned  in the above but edited it out as I misread his earlier post.  Nothing important (thought he mentioned 5050 for the ASX) - China is going higher still - even though it fixed the Yuan a bit lower today (and that's after they said they wanted it stronger...  typical...).