ASX Index

[Guest Zero]

It may be obvious but my "range" for the PM has been exploded upwards.  Something got into the SPI about 12:45pm and has feed off itself.  I expected a rally, but I didn't expect it to be this large, meaning the fading back won't bring it to a "range".  I'll have to think of a new description other than range.  Interesting that the PM moves - or mid lunch to close - for the past three days, have been stronger than the AM. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

great call on the rally! For a second, I thought the index was about to fall off a cliff - glad I took the day off...

[Guest Zero]

,

 

That is actually a great strategy at times.  The first rule of the fight club is not to lose money!

I see so many trades as a day-trader that I know I can be selective.  There is always another trade.  I was going to do the same, but since I commented this morning I felt I should trade the comment. 

 

Which I did - AM started as suggested and then as I was leaving home that early rise/high (well, off opening highs by 2pts) paused and faded down to lows.  When I got back I could see a low had been put in (couldn't sell it as the 1-Touch was priced only at 14 - not worth the mouse-click ), expected the bounce, but not the take-off.  I traded the bounce with a small (IG won't fill me with more) ladder into 1pm.  The sell of the highs would have been safe too as recommened (despite the larger than expected bounce) but in hindsight, sitting on that for 2hours v a 30min surge off the lows ??  Both good trades I guess. 

 

Then 12:45pm-ish we just went it alone - surging higher and leading the Dow, Nikkei and China higher.  China again was weaker 12:30pm but that was disregarded by 1pm. Like I said, I thought a range meaning a surge would come back, almost equal up and down, but updated that tweak earlier.  We ranged at the highs into the close, and looked like we were staying up there.  The 4pm XJO value was right on a 20-30 or 10-20 binary level (5170.70, up 20.60) and I had a binary for it to stay in the 20-30, but closed that, sensed I was a touch off, and went the 10-20.  Sorry - couldn't correct my earlier suggestion from the morning in real-time (this re-buy all happened within 30secs of binary lockout).  That looked like a bad idea as the market surged again to the day high-1, then fell so strongly it was, like, why didn't you do that at 3pm like normal....  Anyway - binary ok. 

 

Today a lot of my familar intuitions for the SPI have been both spot on and dodgy.  The AM spot on, the PM ok, but with an added kink (in the size or the time-sequnce) to make them unprofitable if I didn't make adjustments.  So a tough day to end a tough week.  Don't try and understand today's strength - a few possible reasons but doesn't matter really.  Can still be traded. 

 

Still strong buying into the the SPI close, back up to high.  Makes complete sense...(not).  Asia staying strong too.  $AUD up.  Volumes for shares/equities were lower than the weekly average (rough guestimate). SPI volume seems ok. 

 

Tonight will be interesting after last night's whipsaw.  Yet a heads-up - China data on Saturday (? who releases data on a Saturday - relax fellas) - which may stir up things Monday morning.  Next week is a big week anyway - doesn't need any help from China. 

[Guest Zero]

Back again, today should see some selling into rallies.  Weakness, rally, relax, rally, sell off into 1pm.

That should steady into the PM and try to rally a little into close / expiry.

 

China data over the weekend a touch lower than expectations - could be meaningless - depending on if it is bad news, or good news because more stimulus will be expected.  A joke but that's the reality at the moment. 

[Guest Zero]

As expected - though the rallies were lame, 10pts sort of.  Weak start, rallied, fell back, rallied a bit more but no conviction, fell into 1pm as suggested.  Ranged then looked like it was happy, but something changed and it continued selling, more than I expected.  Being kept down despite strong Asian markets.  Ranged at the lows, and then tried to rally into the close as suggested.

I traded that via the range - but had to lower my risk so forfeited some profitable binaries. 

Sold off again into the end of day.  Odd.  Going to be one of those weeks maybe?

[Guest Zero]

Some/any early weakness should rally, fizzle, rally, fade then again try to rally into 1pm.  The PM should eventually relax, keeping steady/lower (ranging) into the close.

[Guest Zero]

Big day, closely algo-controlled in hindsight.  Helped lower by the Nikkei and China, but we haven't looked like moving higher in the past 24hours.

As indicated, the rallies fizzled in the AM, and then an attempt to rally into 1pm was futile as it had somewhere to go lower.  The binaries were all easily priced for IG into 1pm, good job lads - nothing available unless you were in earlier. 

Then that weakness continued, staged a hopeful comeback around 3pm, but then eventually relaxed and stayed lower into the close, ranging at the lows for the expiry.  I traded that.  Binaries were great/priced well/fairly - yet I had a mental stop on a large CFD that, after 24hours, reached a point of no return and cost me months of binaries.  So some serious catchup to do.

Yet it was a good experiment (not intentional) to see how I would forecast the day and then trade when sitting on a loss, and then still trade after a very sizeable realised loss. 

 

It seems the SPI is being held hostage lower, wouldn't read anything into that for global markets (FED rates, or today's BoJ). Volumes were at or above average with selling across banks and miners, Telstra about the only one spared.  Odd. 

 

Still a few big days ahead - potentially. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

That sucks . I closed out of a short CFD when the fake morning rally came through, feeling pretty silly now ... but i think there should be a couple of shorting opportunities in the next couple of days though even if the "easy money" is gone.

[Guest Zero]

Expect some early weakness to rally, but then sell off to probably a low, bounce of there into 1pm.  Then relax again but find a range into the close, off lows into expiry...

[Guest Zero]

Thanks  

 

Good trading to short a few points.  Better than a loss. 

 

Be an interesting 24hours.  Today I would expect a large range, but not sure where from or which direction.  A bit tricky - sort would be the obvious choice.  Have to play it by ear.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Yeah. Im expecting lows as well. Not sure when itll happen but if it reaches either 5120 or touches the 4hr MA then I reckon it'll fall down to 5030. If that breaks then theres even more pain ahead for the bulls.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Cheers - you made a great point the other day with "the first rule of Fight Club" haha.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

On second thoughts it might not need to hit 5120 or the 4hr MA. Seems to be struggling to rally.

[Guest Zero]

Just had a sniff (of 5120) - the strength of the rallies is stronger than I expected, so I'd tone down some of my earlier expectations.  YET the Nikkei is dragging us lower, an interesting battle between the two today - so I'm going to let it brew for a bit.

 

You make some good calls  with the 4hr MA - these markets always make you second guess yourself.  I have the luxury with binaries of waiting-and-seeing for a lot of trades. 

 

 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Haha - I was wrong on both counts, but if you check out the latest chart you can see where the 'real' downtrend line is (see the collapse at around 5128). Will be interesting to see if it holds on overnight. Could be a big move either side from the looks of things, might be forming a (bit of awonky) head and shoulders at 5180 or it could capitulate completely. Hard to tell.

 

Btw - what does everyone use for Volume data? The IG CFD doesn't have it.

[Guest Zero]

Bit late - but today was sort of as expected (with the updated stronger than expected tweak). 

Didn't really sell-off but flummoxed after early surge, then surged/bounced  off those lower levels into 1pm.  Then sold off ranged, and then moved higher to the upper bound of the range.  I was a bit keen in selling that, getting in a bit early and paying the price. 

The expiry was off the range lows. 

Strength into the close continued.  No sense of caution for tonight's FOMC. 

 

 

 - volumes?  Do you mean futures or individual shares?  Both you'll have to get from other external sources.  You can get volume info from the ASX website - they give 15min delayed prices and volume with that.   Here's a link. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/futuresPriceList.do?code=AP&type=FUTURE

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Thanks . I think dailyfx has one as well but Im not sure what the delay is.

[Guest Zero]

Expect a volatile day - early selling will rally, fade, then kick on into 1pm. Then a bit of a snooze should pick up into a positive close. 

[Hopeful]

Your "wonky" H&S may be a play especially if employment data disappoints; looking at sell off to 5120 then if continues maybe 5080 - otherwise continue to the upside!

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Cheers  looks like we might see it come together this afternoon?

[Guest Zero]

There's a good deal of selling going on here - could keep it up into expiry, but there's stuff going on which doesn't "obey" charts or indicators. 

[Guest jamko]

Hi Zero

The most likely explination for the ASX is the recent selling was part of wave 4 down.

Elliot wave principle requires an upward wave 5 to complete before a trend change

The tricky bit here is that the buyers now have their chance to prove a point and the length of the wave will depend on how confident they are in this market. Usually a rise to the previous wave peak at around 5222 on March 12 can be used as a guage for the minimum target range of the wave.

 

Hope this helps

Cheers

jamko

[Hopeful]

Yes should have could have at 5173 - first leg down 5165 then reconsider - seems to be making "awonky" M on the 5 min - but your H&S still hanging in!

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Not sure what to think of the price action leading up to and after closing. I made the mistake of going in too early (it was hairy there for a bit, but I wasnt stopped out or anything so will see how it goes).

[Hopeful]

 I'm done for the day (I think!!) - hope the H&S delivers!

[Guest Zero]

Big day with early selling quickly reversed around 11am with the Nikkei open.  Rallied to an AM high, then faded that, more strongly around 12:45 then "kicked on" (rallied) into 1pm. 

Then that momentum continued into the PM, with a new high later in the afternoon after some sideways action.  Then it hit the "snooze" right into the close - expected a positive expiry ie. a bounce, which we got strongly, but oddly the cash/XJO didn't budge.  Meant my binaries were right but wrong, and cost me again.  That can happen sometimes with Binaries.

 

The Nikkei weakened strongly in the afternoon, and we were selling strongly all PM.  Then covered that I guess once the XJO was closed.  Strong volume all round (SPI and cash).  Dollar strong too with positive jobs data. 

[Guest Zero]



 Hi Jamko,

 

Thanks for your input and an interesting idea.  To be pedantic, I wouldn't call that an explanation unless the majority of market participants follow Elliot Wave Theory to the letter.  But I understand what you mean. 

 

I don't know anything about Elliot Wave - and as a day trader don't use techniques like that or other conventional analysis. 

To me it was more useful to know that there was going to be early selling, a rally, a relaxing into 1pm but off lows, then a selloff into expiry and then a rally into 16:10.  That's how I saw the day, there was at least 150-200 pts today in all of that, with lots of opportunities.  That's what I attempt to trade on a daily basis. 

 

Yet your suggestion sounds quite reasonable.  Do you trade it?  On what time-scale?

Thanks again for your post.  Cheers.

 

[Guest jamko]

Hi Zero

Yes I guess you are right with that  I have only just started with this community so I suppose I am just sounding out how different people approach the market. Elliot wave probably isn't much use to someone trading intraday there is other more workable tactics to employ for that. I usually trade medium to long term and have found EW to be very usefull because it employs a large variety of methods into 1 workable package. Quite handy for confirming price action on the longer term positions. I have taken short term & intraday positions in the past but I must be too lazy for this because I find it takes a little more effort than I would like. With longer term once you are comfortable with the position you have open you can relax a little and see if there are any more coming up in other markets. Depending on the market you can travel anywhere from 100 to 1000 points and just adjust the size of your position to suit your budget. I think maybe I have made this sound easier than it really is. Elliot wave can be very complicated and to be quite honest I don't believe I will ever master it but a good understanding of the basics can go a long way.

 

Cheers

jamko

 

[Guest Zero]

Thanks 

 

I hope it works for you.  Sounds nice to be able to sit back and relax with a position.  I think all trading explanations sound easy until you actually use them with real cash.

 

I'll be watching the 5222 level.  Hopefully you can give us an Elliot analysis for the ASX now and then.  I like the idea of waves...!

Thanks again. 

[Guest jamko]

Thanks Zero

It's still a work in progress but the more I trade with it the more confident I become. It is always difficult when its your own cash at stake. I've been lucky to have a mentor to explain a lot of the trading methods but being old school he hasn't really gotten into EW specifically, that has been my own research. I think the most important thing we have discussed is that it doesn't really matter what style you feel is best for you it's the mental approach to that method that counts.

 

Cheers

jamko