ASX Index

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Interesting leads from the US - up near the 17500 level which is close to the weekly/monthly downtrend that started last year. For some reason I get the feeling that the "smart money" has called the bottom for the ASX (at around 4850) but people couldve said that about the Christmas rally - so I'll wait and see what lows we see next. H&S didn't pan out the way I'd traded but my stop was a bit tight at 5200 so I was out even before the move down to 5150. Hope some of you took a bit of IG's money overnight haha.

[Guest Zero]

Looking for any early dips to be bought, 2 attempts at a high and then a relax, steady into 1pm.  Any rally faded into the close, and then steady expiry. 

[Guest jamko]

Any suggestions on this ASX situation ?

I have used the hourly chart with no clutter to get a better reading on the current price action

 

 

Do we have a truncated wave v at the 5222 double top indicating a trend reversal ?

Or is this wave b of iv completing leaving us with wave c down to complete wave iv ?

Either way the candlestick pattern along with resistance gives us a sell signal.

Problem is that the daily chart seems to be indicating more upward movement possibly early next week

 

Cheers

jamko

[Hopeful]

Have only really dabbled with the EW - my repertoire really quite simple, but appreciating opportunity of sharing your thoughts and analysis on the EW - agreed with your sell signal but solely based on resistance, ma's and pattern recognition - bit range bound at the moment maybe lower from here if a break of 5177 confirmed with first support at 5160? 

 

[Guest jamko]

Hi Hopeful

Could be a while before it gets back down to 5177 but if your looking for a quick short then there may be something in that as well.

I was actually thinking more long term as in a drop to between 5117 & 5100 if it is a wave c of iv

Or down town around 4826 before any serious resistance if the trend has changed.

On the other hand it could break through resistance at 5222 and complete wave v up.

So we have support at 5177 and resistance at 5222 - a clear break of either should give us our signal

 

Cheers

jamko

[Guest Zero]

A capitulation to end the week, which I guess is to be expected.  As suggested, two early rallies faded to a capitulation of sorts, dragged down by the Nikkei.  An odd surge around 12pm fell right back - bit of a blip that could have been lucrative if you were on the spot.  Then steady into 1pm. 

The PM faded the half-baked rallies, and then held steady into the expiry. 

 

Despite the weaker Nikkei, the Chinese market was strong, and the Dow seemed to be more correlated to the Nikkei.  $AUD keeps on moving towards 0.7800 region. 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

  

 

Do you mind telling me lads which ASX index value you are using.  Is it the XJO or XAO - I am doubting it is the SPI (futures). 

Binaries are settled off the XJO, so that is the value I'd personally use if I ever mentioned the ASX or the cash index.  The SPI is the SPI.

 

Today the SPI closed 5163 and was under 5177 for most of the afternoon from about 12:30pm.  The XJO closed 5183.10 with a low of 5168.20. 

 

Seems like you've got a strategy anyway which is a start!  I need a weekend this weekend so won't even consider what may come up next week.  I'll leave it to you . 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Cheers everyone for your input!

 

I might try an experiment and post details of my CFD trades live- entry/proposed exit/stop loss.

 

I (like everyone) hate getting stopped out so I would be interested in what people think of my trade set ups.

[Guest jamko]

Hi Zero

Its the XJO 

I posted the chart at around 11 am when it was at 5193.3 and trying to rise

it fell back to 5177 a half hour later

Looks like Hopeful was on the money with that one cause it broke support again at around 4pm dropping just short of the 5160 target

 

Hope that makes more sense

Cheers

jamko

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Hi jamko

 

Thanks for clarifying that.  I thought so, but was surprised you were talking about that when it was down at the lows. 

For me, 5177 was a non-event today - the trade was shorting the highs earlier, or about the 5199 level.  Waiting for 5177 would have only given you a few pts to try and squeeze a trade out of.  Short term of course. 

 

Anyway - glad we're all talking about the same thing.  Thanks again. 

[Guest Zero]



 

Sounds like a good idea.  I can't do the same very easily as they are short term and wouldn't be useful to anyone.  Perhaps of interest in hindsight but big deal. 

So your contribution would be welcome.  I love a good experiment ! 

[Hopeful]

Hi Jamko

 

I agree with Zero, sounds like a plan; will try and oblige but may need a bit of direction into the execution of the experiment.

BTW I'm intraday on the XJO

 

[Hopeful]

Hi Zero

 

Enjoy your weekend -- it's the XJO 

[Guest Zero]

Shortened week this week and next. 

 

Expect the market to sell on open, rally, sell off again and then rally, steadying into 1pm off highs.  PM should relax, recover and then steady, range. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

So here goes the first live trade update.

 

Just went long at 5193. Stop is set at 5179. Target of circa 5220 (but might add a trailing stop depending on the price action).

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Down straight through the stop. Will have to have analyse the pre-trade thought process on that one.

[Hopeful]

Yes, hate that. BTW what time frame do you trade? My preference is the 5 min with the 60m and 15m as reference. I normally base any decisions on price in relation to the 20ma.

[Guest Zero]

Lower volumes on the SPI and the ASX to start the week, and the aglo's were on the job to the point, meaning seems like Aussie traders have started their Easter holidays early???

 

Not all of us anyway.  Today the market sold early despite the Friday night lead, but without conviction, rallied, but that was just biding time till mid morning when it sold off more strongly.  Then the bounce/steady into 1pm. 

After lunch, there was a small dip down, which recovered, headed higher, but formed a range from that and kept it into the close.

All (AM/PM) as commented.

 

China was doing it's own thing today, up over 3%.  The Nikkei was weaker along with the Dow and $AUD - which seemed to correspond to the SPI's moves, inc. on the close of day where we rallied as the Nikkei turned positive.  I thought I saw somewhere that Japan was on holidays, and the moves on the Nikkei seemed subdued, so maybe. 

 

Today was textbook for some of the things I watch - amazing when it happens.  There's always degrees of uncertainty of course.   

 

[Guest Zero]



 

Keep it up mate.  It is hard - don't think it's easy for anyone. 

Monday's probably not the best day to jump in too early - but I like your courage . 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Haha cheers ...

 

That reminds me of a good quote:

If success was easy, everyone would be doing it. Haha.

 

On a more positive note, I got back my loss (and then some) in the evening - going long at 5163 at 3pm and closing out at 5186 in out of trading. Didnt post that one live as the sign-in to the forum was acting up.

 

No particular strategy for today but I think theres room for a move up in the next day or two so I might try to go long somewhere below the 4hr MA if the opportunity presents itself.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Great work 

 

They are tough trades to make - as there is a lot more (negative) psychology at play, so good trading to make it back. 

That's why I like to have a lot of opportunities for my trading approach.  It allows quicker comebacks.  I guess it could be all relative (ie. the trading approach, size of profits, size of losses, and opportunity).  Yet having an approach with a high opportunity factor (meaning lots of different trades I could make) has a lot of positives in my opinion.

 

There's a bit of buying down here at these lows of the day.  Can't say how that will progress over the next 24hours, possibly a lot of hedging related trading going on at the moment with the holidays coming up and end of month etc.  Yet maybe by Thurs ?

 

The volume today is low and probably worse than yesterday so not a lot of conviction to the moves it seems.   

 

[Guest Zero]

Today was another sell-off then range day, with buying down in the range.  The low's were set before 12pm and were tradeable.   There were a few decent rallies but it pulled back just as strongly in another well-controlled day.  The volume was higher than I commented on an hour ago, a little stronger than yesterday on the SPI, but the big miners below average. 

There's been a lot of work done around 5170 (the SPI 5170) over the past week - a level to watch either way. 

 

Today Japan seemed to play catch-up, China weakened and both didn't really offer much in the way of correlation.  If anything the Nikkei, yet we were well controlled locally. 

 

Glen Stevens is chatting now, with the $AUD up a little. 

 

The interesting and amazing thing about today (why I commented even though I didn't offer a suggestion pre-open) is that the XJO closed at 0.00 - 5166.60, exactly the same as yesterday.  Would have brought any binary trader to tears who had a good risk:reward (about 1:3) for it closing negative, as IG would have classed it as +ve, even though it was 0.00. 

Hard to believe, out of all the shares traded today, we came back to 0.00.  Only 2 more BHP shares by some kid investing his pocket money and it might have been different, costing or making IG/binary traders thousands?  Butterfly effect. 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

There was a good bounce off the channel (easiest to see on the 4hr charts) at 5150 overnight. Depending on how the market opens 5160 could be another "bottom" and a good level to go long at. Alternatively, if it opens strongly it could be a case of watching and waiting for any pullbacks.

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Or not. Haha. Brutal open.

[Guest Zero]

Some early selling to rally, sell off then range off lows into 1pm.  Weakness after that should steady into a range into the close, off lows possibly positive bias. 

[Guest Zero]

Today there was some early weakness from the overnight lead, which steadied, rallied a little, then sold off - pausing till 12pm then selling off further to the day's low, decent bounce off lows ranging into 1pm. 

The afternoon was a bit slow !!  - slowly falling, then rising into the day's close (a narrow range of about 12pts), then falling back a touch, flatish into the expiry though off session lows.  As suggested, but tough to trade with no much to go on for binaries.  Slow markets are easy for IG to price and harder to trade in my opinion. 

 

Anyway - end of a long weekend at 12am tonight for the SPI.  Not in a hurry to fall but not trying to rise either.  China was a negative today, revaluing their Yuan lower (most in 2weeks and despite constantly claiming they don't want it weaker) - we seemed to again be following the Nikkei, though at one point we just wouldn't fall, despite the Nikkei dropping by about 70pts. 

Weaker lead into Europe open.  Gold off $5.00.  Yesterday it was down $12 on the European open, and ended up down about $25 by the US close. 

$AUD a bit weaker today as the $USD strengthened (or Yen weaker). 

 

Time for a mandated 4 day rest from trading the ASX.  Enjoy.       

[Guest Zero]

Monday fiddle day - back to normal trading hours too for me (Sydney off daylight savings). 

I expect a small down/up at the open to sell off a little, rally, sell back down then rally to range into 1pm (fade off higher range-bounds).  The PM should be a range with a positive bias (meaning probably close off the range lows). 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Just went long at 5020. Stop at 4994. Its early days but the daily chart is looking bullish (up until strong resistance at 5200) so I hope to hold this position for a couple of days and exit at around that level.

[Guest Zero]

Bit of a confused day to start the week.  With the time-shift, the XJO opened with the Nikkei, and the Nikkei just dropped big time (well 80pts but it was in about a minute).  That kept a lid on the ASX, pushing us lower after an early rally (on the SPI open) - the down/up sell-off.   

The SPI held strong and then rallied strongly, the Nikkei catching up.  Made a high then faded that and into 1pm as suggested.  Then a bit of a rally faded, rallied, starting to range, but then we sort of just fumbled lower, continuing lower into the close - a much lower range than expected, not really as suggested! sorry - made a personal update about 2pm but even that had to be tweaked again into the close. Come 2mins before the close I traded a range into the close.  The selling was a bit odd as we were in and out of sync with the Dow or Nikkei, on a low volume day.  The Nikkei and Dow rallied into the Nikkei close, yet were lower earlier - we stayed higher then faded lower into our close.  Anti-correlation almost. 

 

Which is why I said fiddle day.  Mondays can be tricky, with things tweaked almost independently of other markets/Friday night.

RBA tomorrow - will be interesting.   

 

[Guest Zero]

Expect a weaker start to attempt to rally (twice) then fade before another rally-range or stabilize-range.  Then similar into the RBA I guess, fading to stabilise then range into the close.  A positive bias to the expiry (v close). 

 

RBA has no reason to change, but the higher $AUD of the past weeks will make the commentary/meeting a bit more interesting.