ASX Index

[Guest Zero]

Another strong day of selling, with the weaker start trying to steady, but the selling too strong, pushing it lower.  The Nikkei again seeming to be the dominant force.  Cont. to fade lower then stabilised, ranged, faded, stabilised, range into 1pm. 

After there was a surge pre-RBA which was sold off to range/stabilise at the day's lows into the close, but on expiry there was a decent ! surge (positive bias suggested).  The surge stronger than expected, but my trade was independent of the strength.  BUT I was foilded by IG closing the marke early!  Hmm...!  A little annoying. 

 

A good volume day too, and again some internal divergence as per 1st April.  Not as extreme however. 

 

The RBA was as expected, the commentary hinting at annoyance (perhaps) that other Central Banks are driving the $AUD higher and this may derail some positive growth momentum to the economy.  The $AUD was a bit crazy around the announcement but ended lower along with equities. 

 

Nikkei was down at least 400 at one point today, USD/JPY weaker too! - seeming to be the driving force for the Asian session.  

[Guest Zero]

Not much of a reaction from overnight for the SPI.  Expect slight weakness to rally, fade down, rally, then drop back but have a small? bounce into 1pm.  Then any weakness should rally, but relax back to close lower with a range into expiry. 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Bit of a rebound whippy day - with some slight weakness rallying strongly early, then falling strongly to a day's low.  Then got a second wind and shot back up to the high - all of this (down up down up) in sync with the Nikkei.  Then there was a bit of a fade that bounced into 1pm.  Was trading the 1-touch up there, but kept getting surges that took out those layers.  I was a bit sus. so closed them out before they expired at zero.

After 1pm, there was a bit of a fiddle which fell back quite strongly - as expected, and with the Nikkei and Dow.  I expected a range which was fine at the close, and after the close, but then in the last mins. there was a surge which busted my suggested range and my binaries.  Second day in a row there's been a massive surge into the day close/expiry, which was uncorrelated and unusual. So a tough day but in hindsight a day that should have been plundered.  Well - it was a bit trickier than that, but I seem to have traded the hard parts and watched the easy moves just sneak by. 

 

The new time is a bit of change too - I have to make adjustments and am finding out what to tweak after they happen.  There are markets opening at different times which have an influence over the SPI - and are often a cause for a move rather than what has been happening.  Something to be aware of for anyone interested. 

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Expect a bit of a fade from the overnight lead to rally, then sell off again but steady into 1pm off the lows/range.

After 1pm I'd look to buy any weakness early, positive bias to some consolidation. 

 

Not sure if Kuroda can help the Yen today, but he may stir things up a bit for everyone. 

[Guest Zero]

Radar on track today nicely - early fade was helped by Nikkei volatility, which then rallied strongly, held up there until about 12:30pm then sold off as suggested into 1pm.  Ranged off lows into the 1pm expiry. 

Then meandered lower, slowed right down and half-heartedly followed the Nikkei lower.  But then the Nikkei rallied, and eventually the Dow, but the SPI had fallen asleep.  Was a buying chance as suggested as it rallied late in the day 3:45pm, then held that into the close, consolidating with a positive bias. 

 

I was a bit annoyed after stalking all of that only to find IG had priced their binaries to the upside and made any suggested buying opportunities overpriced.  I should have traded more of my suggestions today, but after a quick trade in the morning CFD decided to leave those overpriced binaries - always another day.  Ttechnically it wouldn't bother me but the range was tight so no room for error, and IG seemed quite certain and were fortunate the price paused above levels keeping their prices steady - so all of that didn't offer much worth nibbling. 

 

The Yen was sold off heavily again today, and Kuroda excited the market briefly (Nikkei rallied to +115, SPI held back - a sign) but that faded and then some (-70) - same old same old, which hasn't (and won't ?) worked for how many QE's??

 

Low volume today too, so after 1pm there was not much to see here.  Maybe a quiet night to come? 

[Guest Zero]

Think the weak lead will continue over the morning, with a range developing into 1pm (rally off lows, fade back, stabilise ).  After 1pm the range will likely continue (fade then attempt to rally) into close and expiry. 

 

 

[Guest TheSurgeon]

Just went long at 4901. Stop at 4886. Target at around 4950 (but may add trailing stop depending on the price action)

[Guest Zero]

Nice entry - bold too.  You'll have to watch it closely as there are a lot of fake moves going on.  Chance the high has been set for the day.

All the best. 

[Guest Zero]

Today the weak lead hung around until the BOJ or whoever just bought the Nikkei say 10:30 and rammed up all markets.  The SPI rallied off lows as expected yet the high was more than I expected.  Yet it was obvious when it was done and it faded and stablised into 1pm.  I was out-of-action for the rally and high.

The PM faded a rally, a few times, ranging into the close with a positive bias, kept higher by the Yen and Nikkei staying strong.  Yet we had set our highs earlier (as posted earlier) and didn't go nutz like the Nikkei.  Traded the range into the close. 

 

Bit of a cracker to end the week.  Seems like a fiddle, so tonight will be interesting. 

 

Might be a bit quiet on the commentary next week.  Big Sunday (race) planned, so might take it easy come Monday.  Plus a few things to sort out with my trading... 

[Guest Zero]

Well, after 25 pages of ASX thread, it seems it has been recognised by IG.  As I've often stated, I trade what I suggest here.  Now IG have informed (without reason) me they won't take my CFD business but pass me to the market, and they already limit my binary trading - they must be happy for this to be public knowledge (and I have run it past Dan the manager here). 

Why would they do this ?  I will let you draw your own conclusions.  Yet I'm sure they don't do anything to hurt THEIR own profitability.

 

So - I will endeavour to keep making trading suggestions here for anyone to trade, but now tweak them so that are clearer and tradable.  I peronsally will adjust my trading to be more profitable, and more efficient (less brokerage for IG).  So I am not sure what IG are hoping to achieve.  Any ideas would be welcome....

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

The thing that I find offputting is that IG are personally discriminating against me.  I pay the same spread as anyone else, yet get an inferior level of service. 

Purely because I may have been successfully trading over the past few months, as this thread has documented. 

 

Blatant discrimination.

 

The other conclusion one could draw from this is obvious. 

 

 

 

[Mercury]

Hi Zero,

 

I'm not sure what you are saying, was there any reason given for not taking business?  I assume they haven't refused you as a client, just some particular form of trade or is it something else?

[Caseynotes]

Good to see you are back, would miss your run down on the Asian session to start the day if you stopped. Disappointed to hear of a grievance with IG. The world of the broker has always seemed somewhat unclear, I have heard IG reps declare IG only profits from the spread but other times they seem to infer they do 'bundle and hedge', presumably to offset large oneway market consensus and not actually for profit?

The stats for the retail trader are pretty horrific already without your broker not being on your side (90% fail and 70% fail within the first year). It's an old joke that a broker is called that because that's what they make you but I do hope things work out amicably. 

[Guest Zero]

Thanks and I appreciate the support here from fellow traders.  Out of respect for some of the backroom people on the forum I'll tone down my annoyance, but its far from over. 

Trading song for the day - Calm like a bomb, Rage Against the Machine... !

 

Today I expect the overnight strength to weaken a little, get a second wind, which should fade but then rally into 1pm.

Then it should range at the highs, weakening but trying to keep those levels.  Fade strength into close. 

 

The Nikkei and overnight move have the SPI strong into the open.  Interesting IG are above the night session close, exposing themselves to a short.  They used to do this a lot, and more extreme - now they monitor their prices more closely.  Another story for another day...!

[Guest Zero]

Today was an interesting day I guess - as suggested the 1pm morning kept the strength from last night, fade, tried to surge, but faded pre-12pm.  That was a very specific move for those watching - and significant.  I omitted to post that here. 

Then a rally into 1pm. 

After, tried to rally, fading, but the strength held to keep a range at the highs.  The SPI faded into 16:10 but but but - and this happens once a month, maybe twice - the XJO moved more strongly than the SPI and in the opposite direction, which would have complicated binaries.  I was not trading today so probably dodged a bullet - however over the PM and day you could guess that there was good buying (well see it too if you knew what to look for).  Not a lot on offer with binaries due to it being obvious what was going on, and the levels available to trade.

Ranged at the highs into the day close too - very tightly held at those high levels for the 30mins into the day close for the SPI.  Interesting.

 

The Nikkei gave Asia the support all day, up 400 most of the day.  A quick acceleration from it's open and lead (+140).  China was strong too and the Dow (futures) kept about +40.  The $AUD was stronger by about 200pips after the China data yet is now down about the same. 

 

Some tell-tale signs today signifying a well-managed day. 

 

[Guest Zero]

Looking for overnight strength to weaken on open, rally, then sell off into a range for 1pm. 

Then should range into the afternoon, keeping a positive bias (meaning once the range seems clear, it should stay in the upper portion of the range).

 

A strong Nikkei may complicate things, as may the jobs report at 11:30. 

 

Short at the market (ie. now)  into the open. 

[Guest Zero]

Closed shorts just after the open.  Instead of trading a decent sized lot I had to do 8 smaller sized lots to give myself more certainty in getting filled.  Just tedious going through the click wait click wait etc.  Meant I closed them out earlier than I would have liked as I need to allow time for this to happen, and the market doesn't sit around and wait for me to click away. 

 

I am working with this, but my posting here doesn't mean that I approve of the change IG has made to my trading.  Maybe in the long run it will make me a better trader, but that is not their intention at all.

Nevertheless, I will be still active posting because of the decent people on the forum. 

 

Those shorts (too short notice I know for anyone to trade) are almost back to zero, so the quick close out was the better strategy.  Now time for round two. 

[Guest Zero]

Another slow day with brief moments of activity.  The overnight strength weakened on open, rallied a touch then sold off.  Jobs data seemed to drag the SPI higher, which turned into a range 1pm as suggested.  The strength of the Nikkei kept us strong - the Nikkei way too strong for any sensible defence - up 500 at one stage.  The Dow futures stayed mildly negative (-20).

I traded the range as suggested with a 1:2.5 (yep 2.5 not 0.25) risk:reward.  The power of binaries.  Fortunately - again the power of binaries - it expired at 0 (I sold) by 0.1 index points.  So I (almost) feel sorry for IG when that happens.  I've been on the other end of that too so it is just another trade.  I even worked around some very dodgy fills which apparently are being looked at (the volume).  They need more binary traders they say - so don't be shy. 

 

After 1pm, a brief surge just fiddled around (ranged) with the algo's bored out of their brains (not likely) - well they are so transparent because they are boring.  Tight as - with a positive bias.  Hard to trade however as it didn't really align with any binaries.  So I just let it go.  There was a change in some internals to give reason for caution, which actually proved a good move.

 

Selling into the strength today on the SPI. Something to keep in mind. 

 

Again, ranging into the day's close (well 10mins to go but I am calling it early).  Jobs data better than expected, yay for Aus.  $AUD put back in line - funny how that happens.  China a bit lame today too - all the Nikkei.  Really, up over 500. 

[Guest Zero]

An extra from the last 10mins - I wasn't watching but it seems...  seems, can't verify - that there were huge!! (like 4 times avg) orders around in the last few minutes.  Held the range as expected, and that range seemed important.  Not sure - will watch it over the next day or maybe it will be relevant for a week.  Just under 5100 for the SPI.  Strong volume on the ASX too - another piece of the intrigue.  Night.

[Guest Zero]

Friday - always a good day to watch (and learn?).  I'll be looking for some significant markers throughout the day.

 

Expecting some early selling, which should rally back, but then fade, bounce off that into 1pm.  More like a range than a trend I think. 

After 1pm, some weakness should develop, steady, then covering perhaps into expiry. 

Fade rallies today, but not into expiry, seems to be a theme. 

 

Will watch to see how much of yesterday the Nikkei gives back.  Already -0.8%.

 

[Guest Zero]

Today was a day to be schooled if you didn't bring your game - amazing and stupid.  A steamrolller day into the close, and the moves after an early drop were steamroller like.  Regions where it was held in a kung-fu grip but then which didn't matter later in the day.   

Started off as suggested.  Early selling, rallied back, sold off and bounced back to range into 1pm and forming a range for the day up to then.  

At the high it was good to watch the aglo's just hold off any correlation and do whatever they wanted - wouldn't budge with some serious work getting done.  Weakened as thought then steady, covered and but then continued higher (new highs) into expiry/close.  Couldn't catch that train - just a tad too slow (or out of the "office" ie. not home).  Expected the rally, but not as strong, so had to mentally adjust to that.  A good tip not to fade the expiry - it is staying strong (and did remain strong into the close). 

All day there was an anti-time correlation it seemed: we were tracking other markets, then wouldn't, then catch up, then be behind, then about 3pm  the SPI just flicked the buy switch.  The Nikkei dropped back -90 yet we muscled higher.  China was flatish all day despite better than average data (I guess). 

The SPI had it's mind made up since yesterday. 

 

I was quite hamstrung by the stupidity IG have got me under - I won't break the auto-censor (asterisk-algo) in my exterme annoyance.  ! Hmm ! 

 

Yet the day was a bit of a mixed bag, with the usual markers not important - there seems to be one thing that is (important) and it is secret whoever's business.  Plus again, some changing of internals that make the binaries hard

 

Solid volume too, and yesterday was above average, so the buying is backed by volume.  Setting up for next week perhaps. 

 

 After the close of the ASX, further weakness on the Nikkei yet the SPI is staying strong.  That typifies the type of day its been - the buying is not stopping. 

[Guest Zero]

Edited out of the above some personal trading from the day.  Not sure if that is interesting to anyone, and may come across as boasting.  I only post it to make my pre-open suggestions legit.  I'll post any losses too. 

Up to everyone else - I don't care either way.

[Caseynotes]

I must admit I'm not so interested in the amount of result (to coin a phrase) but in what you do, and how you do it? When it comes to binaries I can only think of that old joke,

 

Man speaking to financial advisor:

 

Man; My ex-wife tells me she's now trading binaries and making 10,000 a month. She says I should give it a try, what do you think?

 

FA; So it was a messy break up then.

 

 

[Mercury]

LOL!  I don't know anything about binaries and will stick to the main indices spreadbetting to keep it simple in my simple mind, the analysis of the market is taxing enough, but I do check out your posts Zero to try an glean any interesting directional titbits and to get a view from overnight down under so please keep it up.

 

Regarding posting of trades etc I can go either way.  Boasting is a bad sign for a trader in psychological terms I feel but information on what made a successful trade (identification, entry and exit) is always interesting to me. In particular the reasoning behind the identification.  Predominately I post to indicate (with my red and green circles) where I are seeking to take a trade and later where I may exit.  I don't keep a running commentary of success or failure because I am not trying to gather a following or anything and don't feel I have to prove my analysis that way (I assume people can make up their own minds on that...).

 

My chief objective in making posts here is to get input on my ideas (supportive or not, especially not!).  I am keen for people to tell me why they have a different view and to show that with some supporting analysis or thinking.

 

you can assume that it the market turned at or near the points I indicated I have made a trade there, unless something changed my view on the way there, in this case I will usually have already made a corrective post.

[Mercury]

BTW, Zero, for the avoidance of misunderstanding, I'm not suggesting that you don't post your trades just that you don't need to feel you have to do so to justify your posts.  I'd also love to hear more perspective on the Asian markets if you felt you wanted to.

[Guest Zero]

Ok, thanks Mercury  and thanks Caseynotes 

 

I appreciate the feedback and interest.  I can add some of that info. during my commentary.  I guess it is a personal thing in that for any analysis I read (or give) I'd like to have some skin in the game (or the analyst to). 

 

Caseynotes - is that what people think of binary traders.  Ha. 

 

Despite some European market weakness, the Dow weaker v the Australian hours,  and the Nikkei, Yen and China weaker than their in hours trading - the SPI is holding near it's highs.  That is a continuation of today's strength and is curious.  I'll see what happens overnight in the morning. 

[Caseynotes]

Sorry  I completely forgot to reply re; what do people think about binaries. The truth is (in spite of my joke) that I have no education in and therefore would never offer an opinion on binaries. Which is why I am keen to follow your posts and please reveal more if you felt so inclined.

 

Cheers.

[Guest Zero]

Well, no surprise that Doha flopped.  Obvious reactions already in the futures market/currencies with the Dow down 81 (100 at one stage), the Nikkei down 400 with the Yen, and the $AUD off too.  Carry unwind, commodity/oil related currencies hit, and the ramp from Friday unwound.  That's been the past 3-4months deja-trade. 

 

Today the SPI will obviously take a hit on the open, then rally, fade and range into 1pm.  Then that should move lower and find a range into the close.  We seemed to be using the Doha faux-rally for more than just an oil-price excuse to move higher last week, so it will be interesting to see how we end the day. 

[Guest Zero]

SPI down heavily on the open as expected, but then held that level, rallied in stages/spurts, then faded that into a range at 1pm.  As suggested so I was expecting the rally, the fade, and then traded the range into 1pm.  That way I could let the action develop and be more certain - so the range of 1pm down 10-20 with about 10mins into expiry was priced at 37-47, which I bought.  I had anticipated the high was set for the day, and that helped decide where the range might stay.  It was looking borderline, but on a small surge I doubled up on my position (better price) and then it fell strongly.  That made the trade almost certain, but the XJO rallied more than the SPI but expired -12.60 at 1pm. 

That's one advantage of binaries - you are not trying to think - I will trade a 10pt fade of the market - you are thinking of yes or no conditions come 1pm (or expiry).  Yes or no - will the XJO be down 10-20 or 0-10.  Risk reward for that is about 1:1.1. 

 

After 1pm there was a selling at the highs.  High had been set before lunch, so it was steady just under the 1pm level, selling up there all afternoon.  Then there was a brief sell-off (as suggested - shorted for a few points only as expected a bounce) which rallied back despite ! the Nikkei weakening again (-460 to -550).  We were on our own again, and basically most markets stayed at similar levels - down -95, China -50, Yen -750, $AUD -500.

The SPI then ranged into the close, and tried to keep its strength into expiry, ranging but just falling short of a level on expiry.  I had traded that level and gave back too much by the narrowest of margins.  At 16:00 the range was right on the borderline of the two binary levels so it was a tricky trade. 

Interesting we are back up at our Friday/Friday night levels as if nothing happened with crude, ignoring the fact the Dow is lower, and the Nikkei down strongly. We've been doing that (ignoring correlations) for a few days now.

 

 

[Guest Zero]

After a strong overnight session for the SPI, I expected some weakening on the open to rally, relax back then push a little higher into 1pm.  After 1pm, the positive momentum should continue, any selling should recover/stabilise and then range into the close/expiry. 

 

Nikkei up strongly, Dow futures down due to Netflix and IBM (I presume) so the open will be interesting.  We might discount that, as overnight we rallied quite strongly considering we zero'd any Doha weakness by the close of day (yesterday). 

A bit of background stuff going on too today which probably is the real reason for the strength.