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Market data to trade on Friday: Japan CPI; UK retail sales

From the start there’s data that could move the market with consumer price inflation in Japan. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the Nikkei 225.

Outside of this we’re watching sterling in the wake of UK retail sales for an economy that is already in recession, according to Thursday’s budget statement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Little move for Europe at the start after losses yesterday

FX: Watching GBP ahead of retail sales at 7am. USDJPY down as Japan core CPI hits 40yr high – economists say its ‘unsustainable’   

Equities: AMZN starts layoffs as reports suggest another round of job losses will happen next year

Commods:  Oil under pressure on recession fears – Brent below $90. Gold little changed at 2-day lows  

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD/JPY down as Japan CPI reaches 40-year high

Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) for October rose 3.6% versus the previous year, higher than expected and at the fastest pace in 40 years.

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 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

Indices overview

There is little move for Europe at the start after losses yesterday.

The FTSE 100 dropped back but is still supported by its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) following the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt's autumn budget.

The DAX meanwhile remains sidelined amid of hopes that China will soon reopen.

Forex

Watching GBP ahead of retail sales at 07:00 UK.

USD/JPY down as Japan core consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.6% compared to a year ago, hitting a 40-year high, which economists say is ‘unsustainable’.

The Nikkei 225 fell 0.11% while the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.23%. The Hang Seng erased earlier gains to move 0.5% lower, while the Hang Seng Tech index was up 0.2%.

Equities

Amazon ha started laying off staff as reports suggest another round of job losses will happen next year.

The company told staff this week that workers in some divisions, including services and devices, would no longer have jobs. Some staff were given the option to take a voluntary buy-out as a means of further cutting headcount in addition to the layoffs.

This is amid a worsening economy, which the company says has slowed growth and following its headcount increasing during the pandemic.

Commodities

Oil is under pressure on recession fears.

Brent is below $90 while gold is little changed at two-day lows.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 18 November

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow remain sidelined. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD losing momentum after recent rally. And gold moves higher but oil and gas come under selling pressure.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

May be a quite week as earnings ramp down and US out on Thursday for Thxgiving Day

Indices: Small losses in Europe expected at the start today. APAC down  

FX: 3rd day in a row of gains for USD. USDCNH 2wk high as China leaves rates steady  

Equities: TSLA recalls 300k vehicles. Bob Iger returns as DIS CEO. Earnings – 7am CPG BYG VMUK aft mkt close in US - DELL ZOOM.

Commods: Gold & oil down for the 4th day. BTC down at 15,890 as more fallout from FTX hits the digital mkt  

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: Hang Seng drops on Covid concerns, Europe indices open lower

Small losses are expected in Europe at the start today, as indices in the Asia Pacific region are down.

 

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022 

Equity markets overview

Equity markets opened lower this morning, following the path set by Asia-Pacific indices.

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the third straight month. As expected, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) remained at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%.

In Germany, producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in October, by 4.2% yeawr-on-year (YoY). Economists anticipated a 0.9% rise.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Compass this morning posted an 88% increase in adjusted operating profit to £1.59 billion, beating company-compiled analysts' estimates of £1.54bn. Adjusted operating margin came in at 6.2%, also higher than the company-compiled consensus of 6.1%.

The world's largest catering group forecast profit growth to be more than 20% in 2023 and margins to be above 6.5%.

In the US we learned overnight the surprise reappointment of Bob Iger as Disney CEO. He will replace Bob Chapek, who struggled to turn Disney's streaming TV services into a profitable business.

Bob Iger, who retired last year after 15 years as chief executive, has agreed to serve as CEO for two more years. Chair of Disney's board, Susan Arnold, said it her statement, "The Board has concluded that as Disney embarks on an increasingly complex period of industry transformation, Bob Iger is uniquely situated to lead the company through this pivotal period."

Tesla is recalling more than 300,000 vehicles in the US because of potential problems with their rear lights. Meanwhile, analysts say Tesla could undertake its first-ever share buyback within the next year, however this is dependent on the outcome of the pending lawsuit against Musk and Tesla over his near $56bn pay package.

Dell is scheduled to post earnings of $1.61 per share tonight after the US closing bell. That would be around a 30% decline on the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is forecast to decline by about 14% to $24.42bn.

Dell is expected to have benefited from strong growth in servers and networking revenues. But Client Solutions Group revenues are forecast to have suffered from a declining PC demand.

Zoom Video Communications is set to report a drop in earnings for the third quarter (Q3). Analysts expect earnings of 83 cents per share. A year ago, the group posted EPS of $1.11. Revenue is anticipated at $1.09bn, broadly unchanged on last year.

The video conferencing provider became a household name nearly three years ago when the Covid 19-pandemic stranded hundreds of millions of people around the world. But now the pandemic is behind us, Zoom has focussed on its $100,000+ customers as they are a relatively reliable source of steady revenue. Last year their number reached just over 2,500. Estimates for this quarter is 3,347.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 21 November

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 open the week in lacklustre form. EUR/USD slips, USD/JPY rises on US dollar safe haven flows while EUR/GBP drops to 2-week low. And gold and Brent crude lose traction as natural gas grinds higher.

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Look Ahead 22/11/22: UK borrowing; HP earnings

In the first set of data to come out, reflecting the UK’s mini budget in September, the UK’s public sector net borrowing numbers could be of interest. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at GBP/USD.

Then one all-sessions stock to follow will be fiscal fourth quarter (Q4) earnings from HP Inc, coming after the US close on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe mixed after yesterday’s losses – APAC mkts mostly up – Chinese mkts down as zero covid policy strikes again on mass lockdowns in China

FX: Watching GBP ahead of Public Sector Borrowing cover the Kwarteng mini-budget period. Watching EURUSD around EU cons conf later today  

Equities: Earnings today - SVT AO BBY HP. Zoom down 8.25% after Q4 last night    

Commods: Oil little moved after having recovered Monday’s losses. Gold up after 4 day’s of losses. Bitcoin pressure continues as crypto lender Genesis ‘in trouble’?

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: UK public sector net borrowing narrows in October

Public sector net borrowing has narrowed to £13.5 billion in October, lower than expectations, after a revised £17.8bn in September.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 November 2022 

Equity market overview

We've seen a hesitant start to the day on the European equity market, after US indices declined yesterday, and following a mixed session in the Asia-Pacific region. In China, more cities resume mass Covid testing, as the country fights a spike in cases.

After the fiscal statement last week from the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, gave what was generally seen as a budget to restore fiscal credibility, today the UK's public finances are back in the spotlight. Public sector net borrowing has narrowed to £13.5 billion in October, lower than expectations, after a revised £17.8bn in September.

At 3pm we see Eurozone consumer confidence flash. The index is expected to rise to -26 in November from -27.6 the previous month.

Elsewhere, watch out for AO World at the open. The group reported a 17% decline in revenue to £546 million. Adjusted EBITDA fell 11% to £9m.

It its statement, AO World says it is not immune to the challenging and uncertain consumer environment and expects to continue to be impacted by both the cost of living crisis affecting consumer spending, as well as by ongoing supply chain issues.

Zoom Video Communications shares fell more than 8% in extended trading after it lowered its annual revenue forecast. Zoom earned $1.07 per share during the quarter, compared with estimates of 83 cents. Revenue rose 5% to $1.1 billion, on the back of a 20% increase from high-paying enterprise customers, the so-called $100,000+ customers.

Zoom even raised its annual adjusted profit per share to between $3.91 and $3.94, compared with $3.66 to $3.69 forecast earlier, but investors were disappointed by one announcement: online business will decline nearly 8% during the year. Zoom now expects annual revenue to be between $4.37 billion and $4.38 billion, compared with an earlier outlook of $4.39 billion and $4.40 billion.

Dell posted quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.30 per share. The mean expectation of 15 analysts for the quarter was for earnings of $1.61 per share. Revenue fell 13% to $24.72 billion from a year ago; analysts expected $24.42 billion.

Another computer maker is scheduled to report tonight after the US closing bell. Analysts anticipate HP Inc to post earnings of 84 cents per share, down 10% year-on-year (YoY), and a 12% decline of its revenue on an annual basis to $14.74bn.

If PC sales are expected to decline, analysts expect that HP's printer business will be strong enough to keep overall sales flat with the prior quarter.

Best Buy is set to posts its quarterly earnings before market opens. Analysts expect earnings of $1.03, half of that recorded during the same quarter a year ago per share. Revenue is expected to decline by about 13% on an annual basis to $10.32bn.

Best Buy is a technology retailer that finds itself in a very difficult situation is the current economic context of soaring inflation and potential recession. Shares have fallen more than 40% over the past 12 months.

Also in the retail sector, Dollar Tree and Abercrombie & Fitch are set to publish quarterly earnings today.

Could Genesis be the next casualty of the cryptocurrency crisis?

Yesterday a report from Bloomberg News revealed that the cryptocurrency lender, Genesis, was struggling to raise fresh cash for its lending unit and may need to file for bankruptcy if it does not find funding.

Genesis responded shortly after the report, saying its goal is to resolve the current situation consensually without the need for any bankruptcy filing, adding that it continues to have conversations with creditors.

Days after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, this latest announcement was enough to send Bitcoin to a new two-year low.

Commodities

On the commodities market, oil prices seem to have settled after their recent decline.

WTI and Brent broke September support to briefly fall to levels not seen since early January. The market fears demand in China will slow as the number of Covid cases rise.

We've seen a similar situation in the base metals market. Copper, zinc, aluminium, nickel are all showing small gains this morning after declines that started early last week.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 22 November

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq turn lower, but bulls may not be done quite yet. EUR/USD and GBP/USD mixed, while USD/JPY bounce stalls. And gold, Brent crude and natural gas show signs of strength.

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Possibly the last day this week with any meaningful volumes as Thksgvg tomorrow

Indices: Global mkts up, Dax further into bull mkt. European mkts expected to open higher. China still worst performer as Covid lockdowns persist

FX: NZD continues to rise on hawkish comments after RBNZ delivered the biggest NZ rate rise ever – 75bps to 4.25%. Watching USD ahead of Fed minutes

Equities: Earnings – UU BVIC HFD. HP up 3.75% last night on fiscal 4Q and news of 12% workforce cut. Could MNU be sold - more developments overnight

Commods: Gold down, could move on Fed minutes later on today. Oil little moved

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: NZD/USD rises after record RBNZ rate hike

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased its official cash rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%, its biggest interest rate hike to date.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

Equity market overview

In the US, the three main indices ended the session higher, with the Dow Jones coming closer to mid-August resistance.

In APAC, indices ended mostly higher. Singapore STI lost ground after gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 4.1% in the third quarter (Q3) in its final estimate, down from 4.4%, and below expectations of 4.3%. It is also expected that GDP will rise between 0.5% and 2.5% in 2023.

Still in Singapore, consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.1% in October year-on-year (YoY), lower than the 5.3% expected.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased its official cash rate by 75 basis points (bp) to 4.25%, its biggest interest rate hike, which means rates are now at their highest level since January 2009. "The OCR needs to reach a higher level, and sooner than previously indicated, to ensure inflation returns to within its target range over the medium term," the RBNZ said in a statement.

The RBNZ also increased the projected peak for the cash rate to 5.5% in September 2023 where it expects it to remain into 2024. The RBNZ has remained more hawkish than its neighbour Australia, which has slowed its rate increases. At its last two meetings on 5 October and 2 November, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased interest rates by 25 bp, after four consecutive 50bp hikes. This morning's ninth straight hike means the cash rate has now risen 400 basis points since October 2021.

The RBNZ also projects the New Zealand economy will start contracting in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 and continue declining until the first quarter of 2024. RBNZ governor, Adrian Orr, told a press conference that, in order to rid the country of inflation, spending levels need to be reduced, which will translate in a period of negative GDP growth.

The Dollar Basket has been drifting lower recently, and traders don't expect the greenback to find support at tonight's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledged in its statement that it had already raised rates significantly and that, in order to see the effects on inflation, it could slow down the pace of raising rates.

The market now anticipates a 50 bp hike is in December, after four consecutive 75 bp increases.

Elsewhere on the equity market, United Utilities reported a fall in revenue and earnings in the first half (H1), while Halfords and Britvic posted an increase for both top and bottom line.

In the US, HP delivered a mixed quarterly report. Earnings per share (EPS) was in line with expectations at 85 cents. Revenue was broadly in line, down 11% to $14.8 billion, but the PC maker signalled that current challenges are likely to continue into 2023.

HP forecast a lower-than-expected profit for the first quarter, between 70 and 80 cents, lower than the 86 cents forecast by analysts. It also expects softness in both consumer and commercial demand. PC sales have shrunk from the heights hit during the pandemic as households and businesses reduce spending in the face of decades-high inflation.

HP has also decided to part with up to 123% of its workforce. The group employs nearly 50,000 people, and said it expects to reduce headcount between 4,000 and 6,000 by the end of 2025.

Commodities

Yesterday evening, API inventories showed a drop in crude oil stocks of 4.8 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories fell by 400,000 barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.1 million barrels.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 23 November

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq on the rise, as the recovery phase looks to continue. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD turn upwards as dollar strength eases. And gold and oil struggle as natural gas makes headway.

 

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Look Ahead 24/11/22: France confidence; German Ifo; KGF earnings

With the DAX already in bull market and the French CAC 40 close, Thursday’s economic data in both countries will be interesting. Then earnings hit the wires for Kingfisher and Dr Martens. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the charts.

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Likely thin volumes because US markets out for Thanksgiving day, many in the US will be away on a 4-day weekend

Indices: Mixed start in Europe after gains around the world on hopes Fed may now start to ease rate strategy

FX: USD drops after FOMC minutes showing likely smaller rate rises are coming. Watching EURUSD near 4mth high ahead of German Ifo. GBPUSD new 3mth high

Commods: Gold 3rd day in a row of gains. Oil down as Russia price cap discussed by G7

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD slips after Fed minutes

The FOMC released the minutes of the last meeting, held on 1 and 2 November, at which it raised the Federal Funds rate by another 75 basis points to between 3.75 and 4%.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

Equity market overview

APAC equity markets followed the lead of US indices and closed the session higher.

In South Korea, the Bank of Korea (BoK) raised its rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.25%. It also revised its 2023 CPI forecast down to 3.6% from 3.7%, and its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth down to 1.7% versus 2.1% previously.

Macro overview

Yesterday, evening the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of the last meeting, held on the 1st and 2nd of November, at which it raised the Federal Funds rate by another 75 basis points to between 3.75 and 4%.

It told the markets that "a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increases would soon be appropriate". The minutes noted that the smaller hikes would give policymakers a chance to evaluate the impact of the succession of rate hikes.

Last month the Bank of England (BoE) bought £19 billion worth of long-dated and index-linked gilts to stabilise financial markets. Yesterday, the BoE set operational details of its plans to start selling some of these gilts. As previously announced, sales will begin on Tuesday 29 November, and will happen on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays, giving minimum prices that it will accept before each sale.

At 9am this morning, Germany's business climate for the month of November will be released. Economists anticipate a small rise to 85, from 84.3 in October, the first increase in six months.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity markets, Dr. Martens lowered its core earnings margin forecast after posting 5% profit before tax for the first six months of the year.

Kingfisher's third quarter (Q3) like-for-like total sales rose by 0.2%, dragged down by the underperformance of its UK businesses, B&Q and Screwfix.

Commodities

Oil prices are down this morning, after falling more than 3% yesterday.

Yesterday's move was triggered by G7 nations debating a Russian oil price cap. A cap above the current market level, in the range of $65-$70 per barrel. Urals crude delivered to northwest Europe is trading around $62-$63 per barrel. The cap would still make it profitable for Russia to sell its oil and in this way prevent a supply shortage on the global market.

Another factor kept prices lower yesterday: gasoline stocks. EIA inventories yesterday showed a drop in crude oil stocks of 3.7 million barrels, broadly in line with API data from the previous day.

Gasoline inventories surprised traders, with 3.1 million barrel increase. Distillate stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 24 November

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 show no sign of turning lower. EUR/USD rises, USD/JPY slips on Fed minutes, while EUR/GBP tries to stabilise. And gold turns higher as Brent crude and natural gas start to reverse lower.

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

US markets back today, but just for a half day, volumes expected very light

Indices: Mkts drifting in a quiet end to the week

FX: Watching EURUSD, sitting on 200day SMA, around German consumer confidence and GDP data. Tokyo CPI fastest rate of increase in 40yrs – up 3.6% in Nov USDJPY holds recent losses near support  

Equities: Black Friday (or will it be Bleak Friday?) for retailers? Reuters reporting that AAPL could see iPhone production slashed. Is AAPL set to buy Man U?

Commods: Gold at 7-day high holding 3 days of gains. Oil up but on 3rd week of losses

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD/JPY holds recent losses near support as Tokyo CPI surges

Tokyo's core CPI rose at its fastest pace in 40 years, up 3.6% in November compared to November last year.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 25 November 2022 

Equity market overview

There was no real direction overnight for indices in the Asia-Pacific region as US equity markets were closed yesterday for Thanksgiving. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.35% lower, while Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.24%.

In Japan, Tokyo's core CPI rose at its fastest pace in 40 years, up 3.6% in November compared to November last year, higher than the 3.4% recorded in October, and above market estimates of 3.5%.

Tokyo core CPI, which is a leading indicator of nationwide trends, has now exceeded the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target for six consecutive months, which makes it harder for the bank to argue that price rises are temporary.

European indices are hesitant this morning, after recording small gains yesterday. The German economy expanded 0.4% in the third quarter (Q3), according to a final estimate, one notch higher than previously estimated. Also, Gfk consumer confidence has improved for the second straight month to -40.2 in November, from -41.9 the previous month.

British car production rose 7.4% in October from a year earlier. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said 69,524 cars were made in Britain in October, an output mainly driven (excuse the pun) by exports of luxury and specialist models primarily to the European Union.

While the SMMT welcomed this return to growth, it noted that UK car manufacturers are still affected by global chip shortages and supply chain issues. Production is still 48.4% lower than 2019 levels.

Elsewhere on the equity market, British power generator and network operator SSE has reached an agreement to sell a 25% stake in its power transmission network business, SSEN Transmission, to Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board for £1.47 billion.

Production of Apple iPhones at the Foxconn factory could slump by at least 30%, according to Reuters, citing a person close to the matter. Following a week of intensified unrest at the plant, production won't be able to resume at full capacity by the end of the month, as it was previously announced.

Commodities

Last week, the Baker Hughes total rig count rose by three to 782. The number of oil rigs in operation rose by one to 623, which sees the number of active gas rigs up two to 159.

 

 

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