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[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 13/12/22: UK jobs; US CPI; German ZEW

Tuesday is again dominated by economic news. Overnight there’s both consumer and business confidence in Australia, but this data is likely to be overshadowed by activity later in the day.

Ahead of the Fed, the BoE, and the ECB rates meetings, we have US consumer price inflation, UK jobs and German ZEW.

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: looking for a stronger start to Europe after Wall St rose late last night and gains followed through to Asia

FX: AUDUSD holds rising support after cool bus and cons confidence. Watching USD ahead of US CPI   

Equities: ORCL up 3.8% all-sessions after fiscal Q2. TSLA technical support level very close, a break of which would take the stk to 2yr lows  

Commods: Oil up for second day. Gold slightly higher. Goldman and Bank of America see copper soaring to record highs of $11,000 in 1yr

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: US dollar little changed ahead of CPI data

In the US, consumer price index is forecast to rise by 7.3% in November year-on-year, after a 7.7% increase the previous month.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 December 2022 

Equity market overview

Equity markets mostly rose in Asia, after a positive session yesterday in the US.

Indices in Europe showed small gains at the beginning of today’s session.

Central banks

Trading is subdued on the currency market, ahead of the central bank decisions expected this week.

Today the US Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day meeting. The market anticipates the Fed will announce a 50 basis point (bp) hike tomorrow, which would take the target rate to 4.25%-4.5%.

The Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) are also expected to raise their interest rates by half a percentage point, to 3.5% and 2% respectively.

In Australia, Westpac consumer confidence increased to 80 in December, rising for the first time since September. The index remains close to the 2.5-year low of 78 recorded last month, and in contraction territory (below 100) for the 10th straight month.

NAB business confidence fell to -4 on November, the first time it went below 0 since December 2021.

As expected, the UK unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in October, from 3.6% the previous month. November's claimant count rose by 30,500. Economists expected 3,500.

Later this morning, Germany ZEW economic sentiment is forecast to rise to -26.4 in December, after -36.7 the previous month.

In the US, consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to rise by 7.3% in November year-on-year (YoY), after a 7.7% increase the previous month. Core CPI is expected to increase by 6.5%, unchanged compared to the previous month.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Pepco Group, the owner of discount retailer Poundland, reported a 14.3% rise in its annual core earnings. Revenue rose 17.4% to €4.82 billion, with like-for-like sales up 5.2%.

Gold Fields' Chris Griffith is stepping down as CEO and from the company's Board of Directors. The decision is effective from 31 December 2022.

Oracle Corp posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the second quarter (Q2). The group posted earnings of $1.21 per share. Total revenue rose 18.5% to $12.28 billion compared with expectations of $11.95bn.

Oracle benefited from strong demand for its cloud software services and the acquisition of electronic medical records firm Cerner. Acquired earlier this year for over $28 billion, Cerner contributed $1.5 billion to revenue in Q2.

For the third quarter, Oracle forecast revenue to rise between 21% and 23% in constant currency, while analysts expect growth of about 17.4%.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 13 December

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 at risk ahead of US CPI release while FX markets are quiet. And Brent crude oil, US natural gas and gold rise ahead of US inflation data.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 14/12/22: UK inflation; US rates

The first of the big central bank decisions comes on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the Federal Funds by 50bps to take it to between 4.25 and 4.50%.

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the S&P 500. For UK inflation it’s the FTSE 250 mid-cap index.

We’re also watching the large Tankan index in Japan.

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected to open slightly lower

FX: USD new 7mth low after Fed went 50bps & said more to come. Watching GBP EUR CHF around BoE ECB & SNB rate decisions… all expected to go 50bps. USDCNH up as China economy suffers further with retail sales down

Equities: CURY H1 ADBE. Musk sells $3.58bln worth of TSLA shares 

Commods: Gold down back below $1800. Oil down after 4 days of gains 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: focus turns to BoE, ECB after Fed rate decision

USD at new 7-month low after Fed raised rates by 50bps and said there's more to come. Watching GBP, EUR, and CHF around BoE, ECB and SNB rate decisions, with all expected to go 50bps.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 15 December 2022 

Equity markets

US equity markets ended the session lower, following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision on Wednesday. APAC indices followed suit, and Europe opens Thursday’s session lower.

Central Banks

The Fed raised the benchmark federal funds rate by half a percentage point and signalled its intention to keep squeezing the US economy next year, as central banks on both sides of the Atlantic enter a new phase in the battle against inflation.

At its final gathering of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25- to 4.5%, ending a months-long string of 0.75 percentage point rate rises. The pivot to smaller rate rises is likely to be followed internationally, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) both poised to increase borrowing costs by half a percentage point on Thursday.

The BoE will announce its rate decision at noon today. The market is broadly pricing in a 50 basis point hike to take the main Bank Rate to 3.5%, a slowdown from November's 75 basis point increase, which was its largest in 33 years.

One factor in favour of a slowdown in the speed at which rates were raised last time around, was inflation. Having hit a 41-year high in October, the annual rise in the UK consumer price index slowed to 10.7% in November, undershooting forecasts.

The ECB is set for a 50 basis point rate hike on hopes that inflation has peaked. Of interest will be the degree of Quantitative Tightening or QT. It could see the ECB shrink its gigantic bond portfolio on its balance sheet. This is after years of government debt purchases and monetary stimulus. Another hot topic for the ECB's Governing Council, which concludes its meeting on Thursday with a press conference, will be inflation and possible peak inflation.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also makes a rate announcement today in an hour's time. As with its other recent meetings, it's expected to go for a 50 basis point hike. It comes in the context of a stabilisation of inflation at 3%.

Economists say that a further rate increase could occur in March 2023, after which rates are likely to remain unchanged. FX analysts say a further nominal CHF appreciation in the first half (H1) of 2023.

Macroeconomic indicators

Besides central banks, the markets have a long series of macroeconomic indicators to digest.

In Japan, trade deficit rose sharply to over ¥2 trillion November, more than double the deficit recorded in November 2021. This was the 16th straight month of the deficit as imports climbed 30.3% year-on-year (YoY) and exports grew at a softer 20%.

In Australia, the unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November, matching market estimates. Employment increased by 64,000 to a fresh record peak of 13.77 million, beating market forecasts of a rise of 19,000. Full-time employment rose 34,200 while part-time employment gained 29,800.

In China, industrial production rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier, but missed expectations for a 3.6% gain, and slowed significantly from the 5.0% increase recorded the previous month.

Retail sales fell more than anticipated in November, by 5.9%. Economists had expected the index to shrink 3.7%. In October, retail sales fell by 0.5%. Fixed asset investment expanded 5.3% in the first 11 months of the year, versus expectations for a 5.6% rise and growth of 5.8% in January-October.

In the US, it will be a quite heavy day in terms of macroeconomic indicators, starting with retail sales for the month of November at 1.30pm. Economists expect the index to fall 0.1% compared to October. Also at 1.30pm, initial jobless claims and NY Empire State manufacturing Index for December.

A bit later, industrial production is forecast to rise by 0.1% in November month-on-month (MoM), and business inventories should show a 0.4% rise in October MoM.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 15 December

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 struggle in wake of the Fed's decision. EUR/USD rallies post Fed rate hike but EUR/GBP and USD/JPY muted. And gold, Brent crude, and lumber are on the back foot once again.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 16/12/22: UK retail sales; consumer confidence

In the wake of the Bank of England raising rates by half a point, as expected, traders will now be looking ahead for a trade around sterling.

Then we see the release of GFK consumer confidence and retail sales. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at GBP/USD.

 

 

 

 

[OfentseIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

**THIS IS THE LAST EARLY MORNING CALL NOTE OF 2022 – IT WILL RESTART ON TUESDAY 3RD JANUARY**

FROM MONDAY 19TH TO FRIDAY 30TH DECEMBER THE EARLY MORNING CALL AND CHARTING THE MKTS MERGE TO ONE BROADCAST AT 9:30AM UK

Indices: Down across the board as central banks keep up the rate pressure, Europe expected to open down

FX: USD holds Thursday’s gains. We’ll be looking at a risk even for next week – long EURGBP around German confidence data 

Equities: NFLX shares tumble 9% after company conceded its budget ad driven service has not been good. NVAX down 27% as UK govt cuts covid vax demand 

Commods: Oil down for a second day. Gold holding Thursday’s losses 

 

[MongiIG]

EMC/Charting: Yen climbs on flexible BoJ policy?

Ahead of the BoJ rate decision on Tuesday reports suggest a more flexible approach to monetary policy will be made. Tesla stock climbs after reports of a new factory in Mexico. Markets looking fragile.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead 19/12/22: Japan rates & Nike earnings

Nike fiscal Q2 after the bell could be interesting. All-session supports trading after the bell in NKY stock. Also watch USD/JPY on a BoJ rate decision.

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Indices strike new lower lows

As traders take markets down across the board, the Nikkei 225 is the worst performer after the yen rose to a 4-month high. While the Bank of Japan kept rate on hold, it expanded its yield control.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: JPY hits 4mth high sending gold up

The strength of the Japanese yen has seen more USD weakness which, in turn, has sparked a renewed move up in gold, closing at a 6mth high on Tuesday.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead 21/12/22: UK and US GDP

With the final readings for 3rd quarter GDP in both the UK and US it is unlikely to be a day dominated by massive surprise and trading potential.

However, with the recent short USD trade GBP may win out on the day if there is an upside surprise to the UK data.

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: another attempt at a Santa rally

The markets take another tilt at a rally going into Christmas. Headwinds remain though with corporate earnings as Micron trades down, all sessions on the IG platform, after a disappointing Q2.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead 22/12/22: BoJ minutes, US PCE & oil rig count

Going into the last trading day before the long Christmas weekend we look at the chances of a move on the Nikkei 225 around the release of the Bank of Japan minutes of its last meeting.

US PCE data may see a further drop in the USD if there’s a further easing of inflation. And finally with the Baker Hughes rig count we look at oil.

 

 

 

 

 

[OfentseIG]

Week ahead 23/12/22: Japan data dominates

With a foreshortened week, between Christmas and New Year, markets will be back in force on Tuesday 27th with the London market back on Wednesday.

 

[OfentseIG]

Happy new year with the first IGTV EMC for 2023: For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Mixed start to European trade. Dax & CAC both seeing gains on Monday most all other markets open today

FX: USD at 7mth low ahead of Fed minutes. USDJPY at 7mth lows. USDCNH 5mth lows despite more soft China data 

Equities: TSLA 4Q deliveries undershoot – 405,278, ests 420,700 – watching 1st 2023 pre-market trade at 9amUK 

Commods: Gold closed out 2022 at its highest since June. Natural Gas 11mth lows. Oil 1mth high 

 

[OfentseIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected to open up. APAC mkts rise apart from NKY as JPY holds gains. US tech socks continue to be the whipping boy

FX: USD reverses some of the recent weakness

Equities: US techs hit hard AAPL now mkt cap below $2tln TSLA near to 17mth lows

Commods: Oil worst day in 3mths. Upward trend in gold continues 

 

[OfentseIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe to open down after recent gains - mkts await US jobs data (ADP today NFP tomorrow). HSI 6mth high - as recent rally continues Asia up across the board despite lower Caixin Servs PMI

FX: USD little changed near recent lows in the wake of the Fed minutes last night showing rates up for some time to come 

Equities: earnings from GRG & NXT in UK then STZ & CAG in the US. AMZN to shed more jobs that originally expected

Commods: Oil consolidates at recent lows. Gold consolidates at recent highs. Aluminium 2mth low

 

[OfentseIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Gains expected across the European open. Losses across much of Asia apart from NKY up as yen weakens for a 4th day

FX: Watching USD ahead of NFP data. EURUSD near 1mth low. BoF gov says ECB rates may peak in the summer. USDJPY up for 4th day as BoJ shies away from more yield adjustment  

Equities: Crypto bank SI shares crashed 42% yesterday as FTX crisis deepens in crypto space COIN down a further 11%. BBY possible bankruptcy

Commods: Gold finding 1833 support and lifting a small degree today. Oil up for 2nd day

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Risk assets regain poise as VIX hits 10mth low – mkts beginning to price in China recovery later in the year??

Indices: Europe to open marginally higher. FTSE100 4½ yr high, Dax 9mth high CAC40 10mth high. Gains for Wall St & Asia (Japan off today for Respect the Aged)  

FX: USD death cross on DXY with dollar close to 9mth lows – this week US CPI. EZ jobs report at 10am. GBPUSD 3wk high. USDCNH 5mth low  

Equities: GS preparing the axe for 3000 jobs 6% of workforce. US banks start Q4 reporting on Friday 

Commods: Gold 7mth high - China’s gold reserves climb for a second month. Oil up marginally for 3rd day. Copper breaks to 6mth high  

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: equity markets rally after NFPs, China further reopening while USD tumbles

The FTSE 100 is at over four-year highs while the DAX and CAC nine- and 10-month highs respectively. Wall Street and Asia also saw gains.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 09 January 2023

Equity market overview

Equity markets started the week in positive territory in the APAC region, following the lead of US markets, and were boosted by the further reopening of China borders.

We also learned over the weekend that Jack Ma has given up control of Ant Group. Shares of listed Chinese companies that count Ant Group as a major shareholder rose. Alibaba was up 7%. The Japan Stock Exchange was closed.

Indices in Europe also rise at the open this morning, as the FTSE 100 climbs to a four-and-a-half year highs.

In Germany, industrial production rose by 0.2% in November month-on-month (MoM), after a 0.1% decline the previous month. and better than the 0.1% anticipated by economists.

Later this morning, the eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.5% for the month of November.

The US created more jobs than anticipated. Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed 223,000 jobs were created in December, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, from 3.6% the previous month. As a result the dollar fell to a one-week low against the euro, and to two-and-a-half week lows against the British pound.

Later this week, consumer price index (CPI) will be the next test for the greenback. The market expects US CPI growth to have cooled in December, to 6.5% year-on-year (YoY), after a 7.1% rise in November. The expected fall is partly driven by a drop in energy prices. In December gasoline prices fell by 13%.

But cooling down is expected to be broader based. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy components, is forecast at 5.7% in December YoY, after 6% the previous month.

Corporate overview

On the corporate agenda in the UK it's all about how consumer-facing businesses have been faring over Christmas.

Both Greggs and, to a greater degree, Next plc last week produced surprisingly good numbers.

This week we have a broad selection of trading opportunities across the retail sector. On Wednesday, Sainsbury's and Topps Tiles will report on their trading during the last few weeks of 2022, followed on Thursday by Tesco, ASOS, Halfords and Marks & Spencer.

In the US, earnings season will officially start on Friday with quarterly reports from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.

Outside the banking sector, the market also awaits reports from UnitedHealth and Delta Air Lines.

Goldman Sachs is meanwhile set to start cutting around 3,200 jobs - about 6.5% of its workforce - from Wednesday, according to Bloomberg citing two sources familiar with the matter. Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 9 January

FTSE 100 and DAX looking strong while S&P 500 lags behind. EUR/USD, USD/JPY resume their trends post US unemployment data while EUR/GBP falters. And Brent crude oil, US natural gas recover amid ongoing gold rally.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 10/1/23: UK retail sales; France industrial production

Overnight, traders will be thinking about the UK retail sector as the retail sales monitor is released. It’s widely anticipated that there will be signs of expansion, but will it be enough to lift the FTSE 250 mid-cap index?

Also watching the CAC 40 around the release of French industrial production. The only corporate news on the list is recent bankruptcy candidate, Bed Bath & Beyond.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected to open lower after 2½ yr highs for UKX and near 1yr highs for Dax & CAC. Wall St closed down apart from NDAQ. Asia all down apart from NKY

FX: Mkts gearing up for Thursday’s US CPI. DXY drops below support pushing EURUSD to 7mth highs. GBPUSD holding gains after uptick in BRC retail sales data.   

Equities: AAPL drops BCOM chips to use inhouse design. Awaiting earnings from BBY

Commods: Gold holds recent gains. Copper 6mth high. Oil little moved 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: UK retail sales data beats expectations, but remains below inflation

The BRC retail sales monitor increased by 6.5% in December YoY, following a 4.1% rise the previous month.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets marked a pause in the Asia-Pacific region overnight, following a mixed session in the US.

Japan’s Nikkei rose as it reopened after a holiday yesterday while indices in Hong Kong and Australia showed losses. In Japan, Tokyo's core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide trends, rose at a faster-than-expected 4% in December year-on-year (YoY), exceeding the central bank's 2% target for a seventh straight month.

European indices are trading lower this morning, after hitting new highs earlier this week. The FTSE 100 rose to 7,726 towards the end of Monday’s session, a level not seen since early August 2018.

The BRC retail sales monitor increased by 6.5% in December YoY, following a 4.1% rise the previous month. This was an acceleration of the growth that still lags inflation which stood at 10.7% in November, representing a sizeable fall in real-terms expenditure. A separate survey from Barclays revealed that spending on its credit and debit cards rose 4.4% in December YoY, a long way behind consumer price inflation.

In France, industrial production rose more than expected, by 2% in December month-on-month (MoM), after a 2.5% drop the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.8% increase.

In the US this afternoon, wholesale inventories are forecast to rise by 1% in November MoM, after a 0.5% increase in October. Dollar weakness continues ahead of US consumer inflation data to be released on Thursday. The dollar index fell below 103 for the first time since mid-June last year.

EUR/USD climbed to a new seven-month high, the Australian dollar climbed to a five-month high against the greenback. Dollar weakness also provides support to gold, which briefly traded above $1,880 yesterday, a level not reached since 9 May 2022.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity markets, AO World raised its profit guidance for the year to March 2023. The group now expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of £30 million to £40m. Revenue continues to be in line with the board’s expectations.

In the US, Bed Bath & Beyond is scheduled to report before the market open. Analysts anticipate a loss of $2.38 per share on revenue of $1.33 billion.

Last week, the group said it was considering strategic alternatives, including a debt restructuring, raising new debt or equity, selling assets and "obtaining relief under the US bankruptcy code".

According to Bloomberg news, Apple plans to use an in-house designed chip from 2025, and therefore will drop a Broadcom chip it has been using. According to the report, Apple also swapped out Qualcomm for homegrown modems.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 10 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 rallies slow down on hawkish Fed comments. Dollar weakness weighs on USD/JPY but lifts EUR/USD and GBP/USD. And gold, copper stall at multi-month highs while WTI slips on hawkish Fed comments.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 11/1/23: Sainsbury’s earnings; Australia retail sales

The UK retail sector is back in focus with a trading statement from J Sainsbury. The stock has been on a rip recently but can it last or has all the upside already been seen?

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor also looks at AUD/USD around Australian retail sales.