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[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe set to open up after gains around the world on slower rate hike hopes

FX: USD remains at recent lows. AUSUSD near 4mth highs after good retail sales data and evidence that inflation is not falling as expected

Equities: Earnings 7am this morning from SBRY TPT PAGE BDEV.  AAPL choosing to move screen manufacturing in house (mainly from Samsung) 

Commods: Gold and copper continues recent rise climb while oil down on demand concerns 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Sainsbury's, JD Sports Fashion post upbeat trading statements

Sainsbury's reported a 5.2% increase in retail sales excluding fuel, while JD Sports Fashion posted total revenue growth of over 20% during the Christmas period.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Europe equity markets opened higher this morning, following the path of US and Asia-Pacific indices.

In Australia, retail sales jumped in November. The index increased by 1.4% compared to October, after a 0.4% rise the previous month, boosted by increased demand in clothes, electronics and furniture. That was more than twice the median forecast of 0.6%.

Consumption remains robust in Australia, and so does inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) trimmed mean CPI, the core inflation reading by the central bank, picked up to its highest level since 2018 at an annual 5.6%. Economists agree that the continued strength in inflation coupled with the resilience in consumption means the RBA will keep hiking rates.

After having reached a decade-high 3.1%, the market expects the bank to raise its cash rate by another 25-basis points at its next meeting in February.

The Australian dollar rose this morning against all major currencies.

On the equity markets, Sainsbury's reported a 5.2% increase in retail sales excluding fuel, up 5.2%. Like-for-like sales were up 5.9%, and the retailer now expects profits to be towards the upper end of the guidance range of £630 million to £690m.

JD Sports Fashion posted total revenue growth of over 20% during the Christmas period and raised its full-year profit forecast.

There were also reports from Topps Tiles, Barratt Developments and PageGroup.

According to Bloomberg news, Apple plans to start using its own screens by 2024. This follows previous revelations by the news agency that the iPhone maker aims to use an in-house designed chip from 2025.

Amazon announced yesterday it plans to shut three warehouses in Britain. This will impact 1,200 jobs, but the group assured that workers would be given the chance to transfer to other units. Amazon, which operates 30 large warehouses across the United Kingdom, has opened a consultation to close three older British warehouses this year in Hemel Hampstead, Doncaster and Gourock. It plans to open two new warehouses in central and northeast England over the next three years, a move it said will create 2,500 new jobs.

Commodities

Oil prices are down this morning. On top of the demand concerns that have been weighing on oil prices recently, the API surprised the markets with a substantial increase in stocks.

US crude oil stockpiles jumped by 14.9 million barrels last week. At the same time, gasoline inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, and distillate stocks by 1.1 million barrels.

Oil traders now await this afternoon's EIA inventories to see if they confirm the stockpile rise, and tomorrow's US inflation data. The market expects US CPI growth to have cooled in December, to 6.5% year-on-year (YoY), after a 7.1% rise in November. Inflation below expectations could drive the dollar down, which could mechanically boost oil demand as it would make the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

As the US dollar fails to regain momentum, gold remains above $1,880, and both silver and platinum are trading higher this morning.

The copper rally continues, now up for a fifth straight day, and closing in on $9,000 per tonne.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 11 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow remain bid ahead of US inflation data. USD continues to feel the heat as traders believe the Fed can now ease from its recent tightening bias, while gold and copper climb.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 12/1/23: US CPI; Xmas sales from TSCO, MKS, HFD, ASC

The big hitters from the UK retail sector seem, so far, to have delivered some good Christmas sales numbers. Tomorrow there are data from Tesco (TSCO), Halfords (HFD), Asos (ASC) and Marks & Spencer (MKS).

The other big trade on Thursday is going to be the dollar around US consumer price inflation. Will it show further unexpected weakness?

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

How much higher can these markets go? With US Q4 earnings beginning tomorrow and today’s inflation data could this be the last hurrah before reality kicks in? 

Indices: More gains around the world with Europe expected to open marginally higher ahead of critical US data in inflation. FTSE 100 now just 130 points (1.7%) from an all-time record high

FX: USD holding recent lows as traders await 1:30pmUK release of US CPI 

Equities: Earnings from TSCO, ASC, HFD, MKS. LVMH record high as Bernard Arnault positions his family in control

Commods: Big spike in oil despite massive increase in EIA inventories, as China anticipates demand increase. Gold now 8mth high having broken more resistance 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Tesco maintains profit expectations, Halfords cuts profit before tax guidance

More gains for global indices with Europe expected to open marginally higher ahead of critical US inflation data.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 January 2023 

Equity market overview

European equity markets opened in positive territory, after a similar performance in the US and Asia-Pacific region.

In Australia, trade surplus widened in November as imports pulled back from record highs. Surplus on goods and services rose to A$13.2 billion, well above forecasts of A$10.5 billion. Exports slipped 0.4% while imports dropped 1.5%.

In China, consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.8% in December year-on-year (YoY), faster than the 1.6% annual gain recorded the previous month, and matching economists' expectations. Factory gate prices declined for a third straight month.

Producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.7% in December YoY, after declines of 1.3% in September and October. Economists had expected a 0.1% decline.

Economists expect inflation to continue to accelerate in the first quarter (Q1), as China lifted Covid lockdowns last month.

In the US, consumer price index is expected to rise by 6.5% in December YoY, after 7.1% in November. Core CPI is forecast to rise by 5.7% YoY, after 6% the previous month.

Also, at 1.30pm, we await initial jobless claims. The market anticipates 215,000 new claimants for last week.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Tesco kept its full-year (FY) profit guidance after reporting stronger than expected Christmas sales.

Marks & Spencer's total sales rose by 9.7% in the third quarter (Q3) to £3.29 billin. ASOS reported revenue was down 4% in the last four months of 2022, alongside an 8% decrease in UK sales.

Halfords Group revenue grew 38.3% in Q3 and +12.6% LFL versus FY20 reflecting strong sales in motoring and needs-based categories, but overall revenues were impacted by softer than expected cycling and tyre markets.

The labour market remains tight according to the group, and it has been unable to recruit enough skilled technicians which will limit growth of higher margin sales during the important upcoming Q4 MOT peak. As a result, Halfords cut its FY23 underlying profit before tax guidance to £50 million to £60m.

Elsewhere in Europe, LVMH shares rose to an all-time high yesterday, comforting Bernard Arnault's place as the world's richest man. Investors welcomed the reshuffle of top management, where Arnault made sure to tighten his family's grip on the luxury group.

After the recent nomination of his son, Antoine as head of the family' holding company, his daughter Delphine has been appointed to lead Christian Dior.

BoJ

The Japanese jpy yen has been rising since yesterday evening against all major currencies on expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will review the side effects of its monetary easing. According to an article published in Yomiuri newspaper, the BoJ will review the side effects of its monetary easing at its policy meeting next week and may take additional steps to correct distortions in the yield curve.

Commodities

The EIA recorded its largest crude inventory increase since February 2021 last week.

Crude oil stocks rose by 19 million barrels as refiners are slow to restore production after a winter storm that shut operations.

If refinery utilisation rates rose by 4.5pp to 84.1%, they remain behind the 92.2% recorded only three weeks ago.

US gasoline stocks rose by 4.1 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels. The announcement, however, had little impact on oil prices.

Prior to the EIA news, Brent and WTI were rising on expectations of a fast Chinese recovery, as Beijing issued higher fuel export quotas for local refiners.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 12 January

FTSE 100 and DAX steady while S&P 500 moves up ahead of CPI reading. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP await US CPI report. And gold remains bid, WTI rallies and US natural gas stabilises ahead of US CPI report.

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 13/12/23: UK GDP; TW, JPM, WFG, C, BAC earnings

Just one piece of economic data that we’re really watching on Friday is UK monthly GDP for November, which is expected to confirm the UK economy is in recession.

Outside of that it’s all about earnings.

In the UK there’s housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (TW), then, trading all sessions on the IG platform there’s JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), CitiGroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFG).

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

After Thursday’s US inflation data gave another reason to buy risk, today is all about the start to US Q4 earnings with the big banks kicking things off    

Indices: European mkts holding Thursday’s gains. UKX now just 1% from an all-time record high

FX: USD momentum picks up on the short side sending EUR/USD to a break of 107.87 resistance.. now onto 9mth high. Watching GBP ahead of expected contraction in monthly GDP. USDJPY crashes 130.40 support   

Equities: Earnings from TW in UK then US all-sessions stocks JPM C BAC WFC UEEC & DAL all before Wall St opens 

Commods: Gold hits $1900 for 1st time since May 2022. Crude builds on the strong week on expectations that China demand will rise. That Chinese activity also boosting base metals  

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: UK GDP unexpectedly rises in November

In the UK, GDP unexpectedly rose by 0.1% in November compared to October. Economists had expected a 0.2% contraction.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 13 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets continued on the same trend yesterday, with the US and Europe posting small gains.

In Asia, only Japan recorded losses, due to the recent strength of the Japanese yen. China's exports shrank sharply in December as global demand cooled. Imports also fell as the economic downturn weighed on domestic demand. Exports contracted 9.9% year-on-year (YoY) in December, extending a 8.7% loss the previous month. This was the worst drop since February 2020.

Imports fell 7.5% last month compared with a 10.6% decline in November, and a better than forecast 9.8% decline. Despite the downturn of the last few months, total exports rose 7% in 2022, while imports rose only 1.1% last year, down sharply from 30% growth in 2021.

In the UK, GDP unexpectedly rose by 0.1% in November compared to October. Economists had expected a 0.2% contraction. Industrial production fell more than expected by 5.1% in November.

In the US, import and export price data will be released at 1.30pm, and later at 3pm, Michigan consumer sentiment is forecast to rise to 60.5% in January, which would be a nine-month high.

US earnings

US earnings season officially starts today, with reports from four of the largest American banks.

According to data compiled by FactSet, the S&P 500 companies are poised to post the first earnings decline since the third quarter (Q3) of 2020. Revenue growth is expected to slow to 3.8%.

The financial sector is expected to deliver negative earnings growth this quarter. JPMorgan Chase is expected to post earnings of $3.11 per share, down 7% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is forecast to rise by 17% to $34.17 billion. America’s largest bank has to face several headwinds. While interest rates are rising, a slowing economy and a weaker housing market are restricting loan growth.

Besides JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are also scheduled to report quarterly earnings before the market open.

Outside of the banking sector, UnitedHealth is expected to post another solid quarter of earnings. Economists anticipate a 15.4% increase in earnings to $5.18 per share, on revenue of $82.47bn.

And Delta Air Lines is forecast to post earnings of $132 per share, five times more than the 22 cents posted for the last quarter of 2021, as travel demand is rising.

All the US stocks mentioned above are all-session stocks on the IG platform, and trading starts at 9am UK.

Commodities

Oil prices were little changed this morning after two days of solid gains.

Last week, Baker Hughes total rig count fell by seven to 772 last week. The number of oil rigs in operation fell by three to 618.

Gold is well on track to post a fourth straight week of gains. Gold trades above $1.890 for the first time since early May 2022, as the US dollar weakened further yesterday after the release of US CPI data.

Base metals also benefited from the weakness of the dollar. Copper is on track to record a second consecutive week of gains, which has taken it to a seven-month high.

Aluminium also is about to post its best weekly performance since February last year.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 13 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 continue to rally post US inflation data. Outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP post US December CPI release. And gold hits nine-month high, while oil and lumber rebound.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Seemingly no end in sight to the rally in equities, metals and oil and the drop in USD. VIX hits a new 1yr low US equity mkts closed for Martin Luther King day

Indices: Europe expected to open near Friday’s highs. UKX now 30pts away from a record high

FX: USD continues to strike new lower lows. USDJPY closing in on 126.36 May ’22 support. USDCNH new 6mth low 

Equities: Looking ahead to another week of UK Christmas retail reports

Commods: Gold continues its recent rise, having passed $1900 next price target $2000 April ‘22 high. Oil continues to climb on China demand hopes.. similar for base metals 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: JPY rally continues as YCC speculation mounts

USD continues to strike new lower lows, USD/JPY closing in on 126.36 May 2022 support, while USD/CNH is at a new six-month low.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 16 January 2023 

Equity market overview

There is no real direction in equity markets in Europe this morning, after a mixed session in the APAC region overnight.

US equity and bond markets will be closed today to celebrate Martin Luther King Day.

In Japan, producer price index (PPI) rose at a faster-than-expected pace in December - a 10.2% increase year-on-year (YoY) - following a 9.7% increase the previous month, and higher than the median market forecast for a 9.5% gain. This is another confirmation of the recent growing signs of inflationary pressure that could force the central bank to raise interest rates soon.

Currencies

The yen's rally continues this morning, following a strong week of gains. Over the past few days, speculation around potential further policy tweaks has been mounting. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised the markets about a month ago with its decision to widen the band around its 10-year yield target to 0.5% from previous 0.25%.

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan had to step in with a record amount of bond-buying operations after the benchmark 10-year bond yield cap climbed as high as 0.54%.

The US dollar is down this morning, not only against the yen, but also against all major currencies. Cable trades at a one-month high, EUR/USD is back near the nine-month high set at the end of last week, and the Australian dollar rose for a few hours overnight above the psychologically important level of 70 cents against the greenback.

The recent dollar weakness also benefits gold. The precious metal is now trading comfortably above $1,900, having reached $1,929 earlier this morning, a near nine-month high.

UK retail

It's been a surprisingly good Christmas, on the whole, for the UK retail sector according to the reports we've seen thus far.

Some trading statements to be published this week, starting on Tuesday with Ocado. Marks & Spencer said that it was taking 30% of Ocado’s Christmas spending online.

On Wednesday: WHSmith, Currys, Burberry Group, Just Eat Takeaway.com, and Thursday: Deliveroo, Dunelm and Boohoo.

According to the Times, Marks & Spencer plans to open 20 new stores, which would lead to the creation of 3,400 jobs in the UK. The newspaper says the retailer will open eight "full-line" stores and 12 food halls.

Earnings season

US earnings season officially started last Friday with reports from four of the six main US banks.

US earnings publications will resume tomorrow with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and United Airlines.

On Wednesday sees Alcoa reporting, followed on Thursday by Procter & Gamble and Netflix.

Commodities

Oil prices consolidated this morning after the gains recorded during the second half of last week.

Last week, the Baker Hughes total rig count rose by three to 775. The number of oil rigs in operation increased by five to 623.

There is also a pause on the industrial metals market: copper, zinc, and aluminium are trading lower this morning, after last week's strong gains.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 16 January

FTSE 100 and DAX looking strong, while S&P 500 moves back towards 4000. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD quiet on Martin Luther King holiday trading. And gold, WTI rallies stall while US natural gas remains under pressure.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 17/1/23: GS, OCDO earnings; German ZEW

Earnings pick up again on Tuesday. First out of the gate will be the Christmas trading quarter from online grocery and logistics business Ocado (OCDO) - we look at the chart.

In the US all sessions stock Goldman Sachs (GS) heads the bill with its Q4 numbers. On the economic agenda the top trade of the day will be the German ZEW.

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at EUR/GBP with the potential for sterling to move on the latest unemployment numbers.

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: European mkts expected down although UKX intraday hit a new 4½ yr high today. US cash session returns

FX: USDCNH up for second day as Chins GDP hits worst reading in 50 yrs. GBP awaiting UK jobs at 7am. Watching EURUSD around German ZEW. USDCAD around Canada CPI data

Equities: Earnings – OCDO RIO THG HAS CRST GS MS

Commods: Gold down for 1st day in 7. Oil mixed. Base metals easing back into recent gains  

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: China economy grows 3% in 2022, far below estimates

China's economic growth in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly 50 years.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 January 2023

Equity market overview

European equity markets were hesitant at the start of Tuesday’s session, after a mixed session in the APAC region. US indices reopened after an extended weekend.

In Australia, Westpac consumer sentiment rose in January for the second straight month to 84.3, from 80.3 the previous month. If this is the largest increase since April 2021, the index reading of 84.3 still means pessimists greatly outnumber optimists.

China's economic growth in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly 50 years. Fourth quarter (Q4) GDP grew 2.9%, slower than the third quarter's 3.9% pace but exceeding market expectations of a 1.8% gain.

On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in the previous quarter. This means that in 2022, China's economy expanded 3%, missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and a drop from 8.4% growth recorded in 2021. If we exclude the 2.2% expansion in 2020, this is the worst reading since 1976.

Factory output grew 1.3% in December from a year earlier, slowing from a 2.2% rise in November, while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, shrank 1.8% last month, extending November's 5.9% drop. However, both indicators beat expectations.

The UK unemployment rate remains at 3.7% as expected in November. Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies fell by 75,000 to 1.16 million as uncertainty across industries lead to holding back on recruitment.

At 10am, Germany ZEW economic sentiment is expected to rise for a fourth straight month to -15 for the month of January. And later at 1.30pm, Canada consumer price index growth is expected to slow in December to 6.3% year-on-year (YoY), after 6.8% the previous month.

Economic data

Rio TintoRio Tinto's iron ore shipments rose in the fourth quarter of 2022, as it benefited from a continued ramp-up at its Gudai-Darri mine in Western Australia. Q4 iron ore shipments increased by 3.8% to 87.3 million tonnes, bringing full-year shipments to 321.6 Mt, beating consensus estimate of 320.2 million tonnes.

As for the current year, Rio Tinto maintained its full-year (FY) iron ore shipments forecast of 320 Mt to 335 Mt. The miner also warned that China's reopening from Covid-19 restrictions is set to raise near-term risks of labour and supply chain shortages.

Ocado posted record Christmas sales, up 15% over the five days before Christmas. Q4 retail revenue rose by 0.3% to £549.4 million. Orders were up 13% while the average basket value was down 1.3%.

Goldman Sachs is set to report its earnings for the fourth quarter before market open. Because of its dependence on investment banking activity, Goldman Sachs is expected to post significant quarterly revenue and earnings declines. Analysts expect earnings to fall by around 50% to $5.56 per share. Revenue is also forecast to drop 14% to $10.79 billion.

Also expected today are Morgan Stanley and Netflix.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 17 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 take a breather as US markets reopen. EUR/USD edges down, while GBP/USD holds steady and USD/JPY rises. And Brent, gold and aluminium come off their multi-month highs as US markets reopen.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: JPY drops as BoJ keeps Yield Curve Control unchanged

As expected, the BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate at -0.1% at its last meeting by unanimous vote.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region rose overnight.

The Nikkei was a clear outperformer, boosted by a Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision that sent the yen down against all major currencies.

As expected, the BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate at -0.1% at its last meeting by unanimous vote. The shock came from the cap for bond buying, the so-called yield curve control, which was maintained at 0.50%. Over the last few days, there had been growing speculation that the central bank would further tweak its YCC, one month after having raised the cap from 0.25% to 0.50%.

The Bank of Japan also published its quarterly outlook report: the board cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%, for full-year (FY) 2023. The GDP growth forecast was also cut to 1.7% from 1.9%.

Meanwhile, the CPI readings are more or less unchanged, standing around 3% in FY 2022 and 1.6% in the following year.

In the UK, inflation eased to 10.5% in December - remaining close to that 40-year high we saw at the end of 2022 - still far above the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target. A drop in petrol prices at the pump and the falling cost of clothing have been highlighted as the main reason for the small decline.

This is the second month in a row where we have seen a drop although the drop has not been as marked as it has been in some other countries. Still, wages are rising at the fastest rate since records began in 2001, however they are undershooting this level of inflation.

Quite a few market indicators are expected this afternoon in the US: producer price index; retail sales at 1.30pm; industrial production at 2.15; and business inventories at 3pm.

Corporate news

Elsewhere on the corporate front, WH Smith's total group revenue for the 20 weeks to 14 January increased 41% compared to the prior year and had risen 20% versus 2019.

Currys kept its guidance unchanged despite posting a UK and Ireland like-for-like (LfL) revenue down 5%.

Burberry LfL store sales increased 1% impacted by Covid-19-related disruption in mainland China. Excluding mainland China, comparable store sales grew 11%.

In the US, Moderna shares rose in extended hours, after it announced to the market that its experimental messenger RNA vaccine for RSV was 83.7% effective in a late-stage trial in adults aged 60 and older.

RSV, which produces symptoms similar to a cold but can be fatal for young children and older adults, causes about 14,000 deaths annually in adults aged 65 and older. There is currently no vaccine for the virus in adults, and Moderna competes with Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline to get their RSV vaccines to market first. Analysts estimate that the RSV vaccine market could be worth more than $10 billion globally.

United Airlines, another all-session stock on the IG platform, rose in extended hours after the airline company said it forecast at least a fourfold jump in full-year profit for this year.

United Airlines reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter (Q4) earnings. The group posted earnings of $2.46 per share on revenue of $12.40 billion. The market had anticipated $2.11 and $12.23bn respectively.

United Airlines expects an adjusted profit of $10 to $12 per share for 2023, up from $2.52 per share last year, well above analysts' estimates of $6.54 a share.

Commodities

Oil prices continue to react to yesterday's OPEC optimism. The organisation believes that Chinese oil demand will rebound this year due to the relaxation of the country's Covid-19 curbs. OPEC expects Chinese demand to grow by 510,000 barrels per day in 2023.

Last year, the country's oil use posted its first contraction in years. As for 2023 world demand, OPEC forecasts a 2.22 million barrels per day increase, confirming last month's expectations.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 18 January

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY expected to continue dollar weakness theme. And gold sits near highs, while oil prices make headway and natural gas moves sideways.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: equity markets in Europe open lower in the wake of yesterday's US session

Indices' performance in the US was dampened by comments from Fed officials indicating that the central bank will not pause rate hikes anytime soon.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023 

Equity market overview

APAC equity markets were mixed overnight, following a negative session in the US, where indices' performance was dampened by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicating that the central bank will not pause rate hikes anytime soon.

In New Zealand, PM Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down no later than early February, after five-and-a-half years at the helm. A general election will be held on 14 October.

Japan's trade deficit narrowed to ¥1.45 trillion in December, beating market consensus of a ¥1.65 trillion. This was the 17th straight month of a trade shortfall, the longest stretch since 2015. Imports climbed 20.6% while exports grew at a softer 11.5%.

In Australia, the unemployment rate unexpectedly stood at 3.5% in December. Economists expected it to fall to 3.4%. Employment fell by 14,600, the first drop since July, missing forecasts of a rise of 22,500.

Macroeconomic indicators

In the US, a few macroeconomic indicators are set to be published at 1.30pm. Building permits and housing starts for December; January Philly Fed manufacturing index; and initial jobless claims.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Deliveroo said it achieved breakeven in adjusted earnings in the second half (H2) of the year. The group said value of orders increased by 6% during the fourth quarter (Q4).

Online retailer Boohoo said group revenue fell 11% as expected, while its gross margin reached 49.7% in the last four months of 2022.

And Dunelm confirmed its 2023 profit guidance after posting an 18% revenue increase in Q4.

There were also statements from Kier Group, Premier Foods and Sage Group.

In the US, Alcoa shares fell in extended hours yesterday after the aluminium producer posted a larger loss than expected. The group recorded a loss of 70 cents per share, analysts had anticipated a 67 cents loss.

Today, before market open, Procter & Gamble is expected to post a 4.5% decline in earnings, to $1.58 per share. Revenue is also forecast to fall by 1.25% to $20.67 billion.

Tonight, Netflix is forecast to post earnings of 59 cents on revenue of $7,84bn. A slowing economic environment and increased competition from Disney+ and Amazon Prime have constrained subscriber growth. Analysts estimate the company added a relatively modest 4.5 million net paid subscribers last quarter.

Commodities

Oil prices are down in excess of 2% this morning. Yesterday evening, the American Petroleum Institute said crude oil inventories fell by 7.6 million barrels last week.

Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.8mn barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 1.8mn barrels.

Finally, gold is little changed this morning, trading above $1,900.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 19 January

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 weaken. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY slip ahead of plethora of central bank speeches. And gold heads higher, as natural gas and Brent crude show signs of potential energy price weakness.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: GBP falls as UK consumer confidence and retail sales unexpectedly drop

In the UK, British consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months in January. Gfk consumer confidence declined three points to -45, the third lowest reading since records started in 1974.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 20 January 2023 

Indices overview

European indices are poised to post their first weekly losses this year, after having set new highs. There were new multi-month highs for DAX and CAC, and four-and-a-half year high for the FTSE 100.

Indices ended the session higher in the APAC region. In Japan, headline CPI rose 4% in December year-on-year (YoY) after a 3.8% rise in November. Core consumer prices in December rose 4% YoY, double the central bank's 2% target and hitting a fresh 41-year high.

Analysts are divided on whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise rates this year. A Reuters poll published yesterday revealed that more than half of big Japanese firms planned to raise wages this year. But the vast majority of Japanese workers are employed by smaller firms which are less able to afford pay raises.

If the BoJ considers that the pace of wage hikes is insufficient, it could keep its policy on rates unchanged.

In China, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a fifth straight month. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), on which most new and outstanding loans are based, was left at 3.65%. The five-year LPR, the reference rate for mortgages, was held at 4.3%.

In the UK, British consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months in January. Gfk consumer confidence declined three points to -45, the third lowest reading since records started in 1974. Economists forecast a rise to -40 from December's -42.

The survey results highlight rising energy and food prices, economic uncertainty, and the impact these are having on UK households.

UK retail sales unexpectedly fell by 1% in December monht-on-month (MoM), following an upwardly revised 0.5% drop the previous month. Economists expected a 0.5% rise. Year-on-year, retail sales fell for a ninth straight month by 5.8%.

Earnings

Netflix earnings missed expectations by quite a margin. The company posted earnings of 12 cents per share, when analysts expected 59 cents. Revenues were broadly in line at $7.85 billion.

But as ever, the market was a lot more interested in the group's subscribers. Netflix said it added 7.66 million subscribers in the fourth quarter (Q4), beating Wall Street forecasts of 4.57 million. You'll be pleased to know that "Harry & Meghan" played a part in that performance. Netflix shares rose as much as 6.1%.

Besides earnings, Netflix announced that its co-founder Reed Hastings is stepping down as chief executive, handing the reins to co-CEO Ted Sarandos and chief operating officer Greg Peters.

Today, before the US market open, oil services company Schlumberger is due to publish its earnings for the fourth quarter. Analysts expect earnings of 68 cents on revenue of $7.78bn.

Genesis Global Holdco LLC, parent company of crypto lender Genesis Global Capital, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection just a few hours ago.

Commodities

Oil prices bounced back yesterday afternoon, sending WTI back above $80.

Yesterday afternoon, the EIA confirmed the latest crude oil stock rise announced on Tuesday by the API. Crude oil inventories increased by 8.4 million barrels last week.

Gasoline stockpiles also rose, by 3.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels.

Last week, Baker Hughes total rig count rose by three to 775. The number of oil rigs in operations increased by five to 623.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 20 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 likely to post first negative week of 2023. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY expected to retain their trends despite recent risk-off move. And gold, oil and lumber prices make headway.

Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Friday 20 January 2023

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected slightly higher after gains on Wall St on Friday and Asia Pacific overnight

FX: USD basket near 8mh support at 101.10, ahead of crucial US GDP data this week. EURUSD highest since April as ECB rates expected higher, GBPUSD breaks 124.46 resistance  

Equities: RTRS reporting SPOT latest tech Co to lay off staff (unknown numbers as yet). WSJ reports Elliott takes a stake in CRM

Commods: Gold down for 2nd day after edging closer to a bull mkt. Oil holding Friday’s highs above recent resistance. Copper 7mth high  

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: EUR/USD at nine-month high, amid expected 25bp Fed rate increase

Thee market has reportedly priced out almost any chance of a 50-basis points hike by the Fed at its next meeting in early February.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 23 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets in Europe have started the week on the front foot, after a positive session in the APAC region.

On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 ended the session 2.9% higher, its biggest gain since November 30, after US Federal Reserve (Fed) governor, Christopher Waller, said he favoured a 25-basis point (bp) rate increase at the next Fed meeting.

The euro now trades at a nine-month high against the dollar. Yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member, Klaas Knot, said in an interview that the market should expect a 50-basis point hike at the next ECB meeting, adding that more steps would follow in May and June.

Last Monday Bank of France governor, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said that Christine Lagarde's 50 bp guidance was still valid. These hawkish comments contrast with market pricing for a less aggressive Federal Reserve, which explains the recent euro rally against the dollar.

According to Refinitiv, the market has priced out almost any chance of a 50 basis points hike by the Fed at its next meeting in early February. And after peaking by mid-2023, investors are betting on a 50-basis point cut for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is the next central bank to decide on its rates. The market expects the BoC to hike by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, to 4.5%. According to Bloomberg News citing sources, Spotify Technology is planning layoffs as soon as this week to cut costs. The number of jobs being eliminated was not specified.

Last week, Reuters revealed that Alphabet could be the latest tech firm to cut jobs. In a memo seen by the press agency on Friday, the Google parent company plans to eliminate about 12,000, about 6% of its workforce.

On January 18, Microsoft said it would cut about 10,000 jobs, or around 5% of its staff.

On January 5, Amazon.com announced 18,000 job cuts. Last November, Meta Platforms said it would eliminate 11,000 jobs.

Technology firms based in the United States announced 97,000 job cuts in 2022 according to consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which is the most since 2002. Still, according to provisional figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the tech sector employed 4.4 million people in December 2022, nearly half a million more than in February 2020, the month before Covid-19 hit America.

US earnings season

The tech sector will remain in the limelight this week as US earnings season continues, on Tuesday, with Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon, General Electric, followed on Wednesday by Tesla, Boeing, IBM and AT&T.

American Airlines and Visa will report on Thursday, and Chevron and American Express on Friday.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices are little changed this morning.

Last Friday, Baker Hughes total rig count fell by four to 771. The number of oil rigs in operation decreased by 10 to 613.

And the copper rally continues, now back above $9,400.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 23 January

Mixed start to the week for FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP rally on hawkish ECB, USD/JPY stabilises. And gold, Brent crude and natural gas in retracement mode, with their trends expected to resume.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 24/1/23: MSFT, JNJ earnings; German consumer confidence

US tech earnings top the bill this week, starting with Microsoft after the bell. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the chart which trades all-sessions on the IG platform. Also, Johnson & Johnson which releases its Q4 before the bell.

On the economic agenda is Aussie business confidence overnight where AUD/USD comes into play and we watch the DAX on German consumer confidence.

Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 23 January 2023