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WTI and natural gas prices rally while gold slides

The short-term outlook on WTI and natural gas is bullish while that of gold remains bearish.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 19 July 2022 

Gold flirts with the $1,700 mark

Gold continues to evolve in ten-month lows and now trades below the September 2021 low at $1,722 per troy ounce which acts as minor resistance whilst targeting the August 2021 low at $1,684 and also the June 2020 and March 2021 lows at $1,678 to $1,671.

In line with several other commodities, gold is thus trading well below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels as the US dollar has reached multi-decade highs on safe-haven flows.

Minor resistance above Monday’s high at $1,724 can be seen at the 13 July high at $1,745 and also at the $1,752 to $1,754 8 July high and December 2021 low.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas rallies on Nordstream pipeline re-opening fears

Natural gas futures rallied by over 30% from its 5 July three-month low at $5.33 close to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $7.54 amid fears that the planned July maintenance shutdown of the Nordstream 1 pipeline might be extended by Russia after it is meant to re-open on Thursday.

If this were to indeed be the case, a stratospheric rally in the price of natural gas would likely be seen which would take its price to well above the $10 mark.

Resistance on the way up lies between the 20 and 31 May as well as 9 June lows and 16 June high at $7.92 to $8.13. Minor support sits between the 14 June low and 29 June high at $7.02 to $6.95.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI likely to continue its sharp rally

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s sharp rally from its 14 July $88.55 per barrel low accelerated on Monday when it rose by around 5% on a tight global market.

US President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia failed to yield any increase in production, with Saudi ministers re-iterating that OPEC+ would base their policy decisions on market factors ahead of their meeting on 3 August.

The minor psychological $100 mark is about to be hit with the June low at $101.22 being next in line. Further up sits the 8 July high at $103.

Immediate upside pressure should be maintained while the price of oil stays above Friday’s high at $96.37. Below it meanders the 200-day SMA at $93.60 which underpins the price of WTI.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude and lumber lose ground, as gold attempts to stage a fightback

Brent crude and lumber are losing ground after recent gains, with gold the outlier as it continues its rebound from key horizontal support.

BG_LUMBER_361640647.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 25 July 2022 

Gold rebounds from key support zone

Gold has enjoyed some welcome respite, with the precious metal spiking higher from the critical $1676 support level on Thursday.

The ability to remain above $1677 will be key going forward, as a decline through that key support level would result in a fresh two-year low for the precious metal. Notably, the strong end to the week just gone resulted in the first positive weekly candle since early June.

To the upside, a break above the $1745 swing-high would provide greater confidence that we will continue to see gold push higher.

Meanwhile, any downside would need to break back below the crucial $1677 support level to bring a view that the bears are due another protracted period of downside momentum.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_07_25-08h27.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to roll over after deep retracement

Brent crude has been moving back in the direction of the trend following a rebound into the confluence of trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance.

The bearish trend remains in play until we see price rise up through the $106.25 swing-high established on 8 July. Until then, we are looking at a likely bearish continuation coming into play once again here, with price expected to fall back towards the $92.72 lows before too long.

The stochastic oscillator does provide us with one key tool to focus upon, with a move back up through the 20 threshold required to bring about questions to the bearish momentum. Until then, further downside looks likely for crude.

LCO-4-hours-2022_07_25-08h48.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber falls back into key confluence of support

Lumber has been on the back foot over much of this month, with price losing ground since the rally into the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance level.

A break back below this confluence of support around $575.48 would signal a likely continuation of the wider bearish trend.

Meanwhile, with this trendline and Fibonacci support coming into play here, there is also a possibility that the bulls come back into play. As such, the price action taking place around these levels has the ability to determine sentiment and price action for the week ahead.

LB-4-hours-2022_07_25-09h03.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI, natural gas, and gold rally

The short-term outlook on WTI, natural gas, and gold is bullish.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 26 July 2022 

Gold gradually heading back up again

Gold continues to trade around its September 2021 $1,722 per troy ounce low and edges higher on Tuesday, benefitting from recent weakness in the US dollar and US Treasury yield amid mounting recession risks.

For further upside to materialise, a rise and daily chart close above the $1,739 high seen last week would need to be witnessed in which case the 8 July high at $1,752 would be in focus. Much further up lies the May trough at $1,786.

Slips should find support around the mid-July low at $1,698 below which lies key support between the August 2021 low at $1,684, last week’s low at $1,681 and the June 2020 and March 2021 lows at $1,678 to $1,671.

In line with several other commodities gold is still trading well below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels as the US dollar has reached multi-decade highs on safe-haven flows.

26072022_XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas continues its swift ascent as Russia reduces gas flows to Europe

Natural gas futures have so far rallied by over 60% from their 5 July three-month low at $5.33 whilst on their way to the early May high at $9.01 as Russia reduced the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% on Monday.

Above the early May high sit the late May and June highs at $9.43 to $9.53 as well as the minor psychological $10 mark.

Support is seen along the one-month support line at $8.27 and also at the 16 June high at $8.

26072022_NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI nears its two-month downtrend line

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is heading back up towards its two-month downtrend line at $98.65 on near-term supply tightness and as tensions between the West and Russia remain elevated as G7 nations prepare to impose a price cap on Russian oil.

If broken through, last week’s high at $100.90 would be eyed next, together with the June low at $101.22 and the 8 July high at $103.00.

Minor support comes in along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $94 and at Monday’s $92.56 low. Much further down lies the current July trough at $88.55.

26072022_CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent, natural gas and gold remain bid ahead of FOMC rate decision

The short-term outlook on Brent crude oil, natural gas and gold remains bullish ahead of the Fed’s rate decision.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 27 July 2022 

Gold stays sidelined

Gold continues to trade around its September 2021 $1,722 per troy ounce low ahead of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision with a 75-basis point (bps) rise on the cards.

Following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 100bps hike and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 50bps rise, instead of the widely anticipated 25bps, the Fed may also surprise market participants with a 100bps hike.

For further upside in the price of the precious metal to be seen, a rise and daily chart close above last week’s high at $1,739 would need to ensue, in which case the 8 July high at $1,752 would be in focus. Much further up lies the May trough at $1,786.

Slips should find support around the mid-July low at $1,698 below which lies key support between the August 2021 low at $1,684, last week’s low at $1,681 and the June 2020 and March 2021 lows at $1,678 to $1,671.

In line with several other commodities gold is still trading well below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels as the US dollar has reached multi-decade highs on safe-haven flows.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas spike falters below $9.53 June peak

Natural gas futures have so far rallied by over 65% from their 5 July three-month low at $5.33 by spiking to Tuesday’s high at $9.43, perilously close to the late May and June highs at $9.43 to $9.53, before snapping back towards its steep one-month uptrend line at $8.54.

The spike in the price of natural gas came as Russia announced it would reduce the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% from Wednesday onwards.

Above the June peak at $9.53 sits the minor psychological $10 mark. Minor support below the one-month support line at $8.54 can be spotted at the 16 June high at $8.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil range trades around the $100 mark

Brent crude oil continues to be supported by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $96.90 whilst being capped by the June-to-July downtrend line at $103.10 and thus evolves in a tight trading range.

Short-term, the oil price looks bid while it stays above this week’s low and the 200-day SMA at $97.17 to $96.90 but would need to exceed Tuesday’s high at $102.66 to not only retest the downtrend at $103.10 but also reach the more significant $104.42 to $104.92 resistance area which consists of the mid-May and 22 June lows and last week’s high.

Should an intraday bearish reversal take place and a fall through the 200-day SMA at $96.90 occur, the July low at $92.75 would be back in the picture.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude and gold prices on the rise as lumber falls towards key support

Brent crude and gold have enjoyed a strong 24-hour period following the FOMC meeting. However, lumber continues to lose ground as it heads towards a key support level.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 28 July 2022

Gold rallies into key resistance zone

Gold has been on the rise over the course of the past 24-hours, with price pushing into a fresh two-week high thanks to Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s commentary that eased expectations over future rate hikes.

The break through Friday’s high of $1739 signalled a fresh leg higher coming into play. However, that takes us up into the notable $1745 level, which is worthwhile watching as a near-term hurdle.

While this recent push through the $1739 level does point towards a potential move higher here, it is worthwhile noting that we also have trendline resistance up ahead if $1745 is taken out.

It does look likely that we will see further upside from here, but the wider trend coupled with an ascending trendline highlight the possibility that the bears will come back into play before long.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rises into confluence of trendline resistance

Brent crude has been on the front foot over the course of the week thus far, with price rising through the $103 mark once again. Crucially, this has taken price into an interesting confluence of two trendlines, which could hinder upside over the near-term if not broken.

Given the fact that we have seen price struggle to break through the $104 region of late, traders should therefore be aware of the potential for a bearish turn around this confluence of trendlines.

Should price manage to overcome these lines, we would need to see a push through the $104.42 and $106.25 levels to provide greater confidence that the downtrend has come to an end.

Until then, there is a risk that we continue the trend by rolling over around these levels.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber falls back towards critical support level

Lumber has suffered significant losses over the course of the past three weeks, with price falling back towards the key $523.24 support level.

A break below that point would provide a bearish continuation signal for lumber, signalling that the recent upside move was merely another retracement within a wider downtrend.

However, it is worth noting that from a wider perspective, we have seen this market bottom out at $460 in both 2021 and 2020. Thus, while we could see price fall back into the $460 region should price break $523, traders should keep a close eye out for any potential reversal signals around that key long-term support level.

For now, watch for either a break or a reversal pattern around the $523 mark to guide near-term price action.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent rally while natural gas is giving back recent gains

The short-term outlook on gold and Brent crude oil remains bullish while that of natural gas is pointing lower.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 29 July 2022 

Gold rallies towards April-to-July downtrend line

Gold rallies for the third straight session to its highest level in three weeks and is fast approaching its four-month downtrend line at $1,775, as a negative US GDP data pushed the US economy into a technical recession and prompted markets to scale back hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US economy contracted for a second straight quarter, the definition of a technical recession, raising expectations that the Fed may need to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.

Despite the current rally, gold prices are still set to decline for the fourth straight month, having faced constant pressure since mid-March from a rallying dollar and US bond yields.

For further upside in the price of the precious metal to be seen, a rise and daily chart close above the downtrend at $1,775 needs to ensue in which case the May low at $1,786 may be reached next.

Minor support can be found between the 8 and 13 July highs at $1,752 to $1,745.

29072022_XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures come off their July peak

Natural gas futures have rallied by over 65% from their 5 July three-month low at $5.33 by spiking to Tuesday’s high at $9.41, perilously close to the late May and June highs at $9.43 to $9.53, before snapping back and slipping through its steep one-month uptrend line.

The spike in the price of natural gas came as Russia announced it would reduce the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% from Wednesday onwards.

Short-term a further slide towards the late May and early June lows as well as the 16 June high at $8.02 to $7.92 seems to be at hand. Below it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $7.59.

Minor resistance is seen at Wednesday’s $8.35 low.

29072022_NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil attacks downtrend line

Brent crude oil is attempting to overcome its two-month downtrend line at $102.70 and reach the more significant $104.42 to $104.92 resistance area which contains the mid-May and 22 June lows and last week’s high. There it may falter once more.

If not, the 8 July high at $1065.25 would be in focus. Minor support below Monday’s high at $100.78 sits at Wednesday’s low at $98.93.

Further down Monday’s low and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) can be spotted at $97.17 to $97.08.

29072022_LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude and natural gas pull back, while gold looks to continue its recovery

Natural gas and Brent crude ease back after recent gains, while gold hesitates within a recovery phase.

bg_oil_pump_366223737.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 01 August 2022 

Gold continues to climb as bulls come back into the picture

Gold enjoyed an impressive rise over the course of last week, with price building on the rebound seen in the wake of the decline into the $1677 support level.

As price gains ground, we are seeing a move towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and trendline resistance, bringing a key hurdle into play for any bullish momentum this week.

The consolidation seen over much of Friday could ultimately see price punch higher once again, with a push through SMA resistance helping to solidify a bullish outlook for the coming days.

Nonetheless, it is worthwhile noting that those descending lines of resistance highlight the wider bearish trend in play, which could hinder the recovery at some point. A break below the $1711 level would serve to end this current bullish trend.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_08_01-08h40.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude pulls back after rise into SMA resistance

Brent crude enjoyed a fresh push up through resistance on Friday, with price completing an inverse head and shoulders formation.

Quite whether that formation provides the basis for an extended period of upside remains to be seen, with a push through the 200-day SMA resistance level needed to bring about a greater confidence of the follow-through.

Thus far, there has been a pullback, but as long as we do not see a move back below $100.94, there is a good chance the bulls come back into play once more here.

As such, sentiment will be significantly dictated by the move through either $100.94 or $106.25.

LCO-4-hours-2022_08_01-08h49.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas continues its bearish trajectory

Natural gas has spent much of the past week giving back the gains that took us back in towards the June peak of $96.55. That break down through channel support has subsequently taken the stochastic into levels not seen this month.

Given the volatile geopolitical factors driving prices of late, there is a chance this current pullback results in another sharp move higher dependent upon Russia relations with the West. However, for now things appear to be easing as the first grain shipment successfully reaches Turkey from Ukraine.

As such, further downside looks likely for now, with a break up through the $87.35 level required to bring about a more positive outlook once again.

NG-4-hours-2022_08_01-09h01.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and natural gas prices rise while oil drops

The short-term outlook on gold and natural gas remains bullish while that of Brent crude oil is short-term bearish.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 August 2022 

Gold attempting to break through the April-to-July downtrend line

Gold is rallying for its fifth straight session whilst trying to overcome the four-month downtrend line at $1,770 per troy ounce, as a negative US growth domestic product (GDP) data last week pushed the US economy into a technical recession, led the US dollar to slide and prompted markets to scale back hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Last week’s data showed that the US economy contracted for a second straight quarter, the definition of a technical recession, raising expectations that the Fed may need to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.

Despite the current rally, gold prices declined for a fourth straight month in July and by over 15% from their March peak, due to an appreciating dollar and rising US bond yields.

The May low at $1,786 may be reached next but together with the mid-June low at $1,807 is likely to act as resistance.

Minor support is to be seen between the 8 and 13 July highs at $1,752 to $1,745.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures recover from Monday’s low

The sell-ff in natural gas futures from last Tuesday’s high at $9.41, made close to the late May and June highs at $9.43 to $9.53 on the back of Gazprom reducing the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% in late July, seems to have ended at Tuesday’s $7.76 low below which meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $7.59.

Another up leg may be in the making with last Wednesday’s low at $8.35 and the $8.50 region representing possible upside targets for this week.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil slips further on darkening outlook

Brent crude oil has tumbled as weak manufacturing data in Japan, Europe and the US highlighted the darkening global economic outlook.

The ISM manufacturing PMI softened in July, weighed down by declining output and new orders in Japanese and European markets with month-on-month construction spending coming in at a worse than expected -1.1% versus a forecast of 0.3% and a revised June figure of 0.1%.

On the supply side, traders await the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday with the organisation expected to stick to its policy of modest supply increases, keeping global supply tight.

Since last Friday’s $106.36 high the price of Brent slid by around 7%, so far to $98.20, before trading back around the minor psychological $100 mark.

Below $98.20, Monday’s low and the 200-day SMA can be spotted at $97.24 to $97.17. Failure there would leave the door open for the July trough at $92.75 to be revisited.

Minor resistance comes in at the 28 July low at $100.94 and also at the 29 July low at $101.54.

Brent Crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and natural gas start to push higher, as Brent crude breaks support

Gold and natural gas start to push higher, with Brent crude breaking back below key support.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 04 August 2022 

Gold turning upwards after recent pullback

Gold has started to turn upwards once again this morning, with the precious metal seeking to regain ground lost over the course of Tuesday.

An ascending channel points towards the potential for a bullish resurgence here, as the recent recovery phase comes back into play. To the upside, keep a close eye out for the $1787 resistance level, which has been respected twice in May and July.

A break back below trendline and $1711 support would bring about expectations of a bearish break of the critical $1677 support level, signalling a wider selloff for the metal. However, until that occurs, things are looking more positive.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_08_04-08h42.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude tumbles after reaching 200-SMA resistance

Brent crude has been hit hard this week, with yesterday’s meagre 100 000 barrels per day production increase from OPEC failing to derail the bearish move playing out over the course of the week.

While we saw price break trendline resistance, it was the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) that ultimately brought the bears back into play.

Notably, we have now seen the $97.17 support level broken, raising the likeliness of another bearish move towards the $92.74 lows from mid-July.

As such, a bearish outlook is in play for Brent, with a rise up through the $102.05 swing-high required to bring about a more positive outlook for the market.

LCO-4-hours-2022_08_04-08h47.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas punches through resistance

Natural gas managed to break from its recent descending channel formation yesterday, with the price rising sharply up through trendline resistance thanks to a move that at one point saw a 10% gain over the course of just two hours.

The tentative push up through the $8.293 resistance level points towards a potential bullish phase coming back into play here. As such, it makes sense to consider the potential for a bullish resurgence here, with a break back below the recent low of $7.559 required to bring about a fresh bearish view once again.

Until then, watch for another move up through $8.293 to bring about greater confidence of a push higher from here.

NG-4-hours-2022_08_04-09h14.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 3 weeks later...

Gold and Brent maintain bearish momentum, while natural gas pushes back towards resistance

Gold and Brent crude head lower once again, while natural gas pushes up into a key resistance level.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 22 August 2022 

Gold continues to collapse after 61.8% retracement

Gold has been hit hard over the past week, with the precious metal looking to carry on where it left off today as price falls into a fresh three-week low.

The wider bearish trend does dictate that we should be looking for further downside from here, with the weakness seen across wider markets pointing towards a potential period of weakness from here.

As we have seen over the course of this year, risk-off sentiment has largely benefitted the dollar rather than gold, with precious metals instead being hit hard thanks to the environment of rising interest rates.

The recent break back below $1765 and $1754 have brought greater expectations of downside for gold, with price following up that decline with further downside.

From an intraday perspective, a rise through the $1772 level would be required to bring expectations of a more positive period. Until then, this bearish mindset looks set to continue.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_08_22-09h07.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude heads lower following rise into deep retracement

Brent crude managed to rebound into the $97 region last week, with claims of strong US consumption and supply constraints helping lift energy prices.

However, the wider bearish trend remains in place for a reason, with inflationary fears bringing the potential for weaker global demand and Iran supply coming back online if the nuclear deal is struck.

The four-hour chart highlights the bearish trend that could kick in here, with a move back below the $93.81 level bringing greater confidence in this negative move.

Ultimately, the wider bearish trend does provide confidence that the price of crude will head lower from here, with a rise up through the $99.72 level required to bring an end to the two-month downtrend.

LCO-4-hours-2022_08_22-09h26.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas heading back into historical resistance level

Natural gas prices have been on the rise over the course of this year, with the uptrend seeing the energy source reach the lofty heights of $9.655 back in early June. Two months later and we are back at that key resistance level attempting to create a new high.

Last week saw price stumble at this hurdle, but the current turn upwards does signal the potential for a bullish breakout this week. With that in mind, the ability or inability to break through $9.655 will provide the basis for price action this week.

Should we see price break higher, another bout of upside looks likely. To the downside, we would need to see a decline through $8.392 and ultimately $7.544 to signal a top for natural gas.

NG-4-hours-2022_08_22-09h34.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent crude remain at risk, while natural gas breaks multi-year resistance

Gold and Brent crude at risk of further downside, while natural gas pushes up into fresh decade highs.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 23 August 2022 

Gold takes a breather after a week of constant selling pressure

Gold has been hit hard over the course of the past week, with the strengthening dollar and risk-off sentiment serving to damage the price of gold.

The precious metal appears to be taking a breather here but the wider trend points towards a potential move down into the key long-term support zone around $1677 in the end.

Any pause in this decline is likely to be a short-term phenomenon before the price of gold gives way once again.

A rise up through the prior swing high would serve to negate that bearish view for gold (currently $1803).

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_08_23-08h51.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rebounds on OPEC claims

Brent crude prices have seen a relatively volatile period of late with downside pressure associated with the impending recession and Iran deal being negated by claims that OPEC may restrict production in a bid to stabilise the market.

That OPEC claim managed to push prices back up into the recent resistance level of $97.34 which lies just below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. However, the trend of lower highs does still remain in play for now signalling the potential for this market to roll over once more.

To the upside we can see the descending trend line and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance that could ultimately cap this latest move higher.

Thus, the ongoing downtrend signals the potential for further downside, where a push through the latest swing high of $99.72 would be required to negate that bearish outlook.

LCO-4-hours-2022_08_23-09h01.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas holds after break into multi-year high

Natural gas has continued to push higher over the course of this week thus far, with prices moving into the highest level in over a decade yesterday.

The price of natural gas in the US pales in comparison to European levels, but we still expect to see further upside as we move towards the winter.

The break up through that key resistance level does signal the potential for an extended move higher from here. Crucially the fact the price has held and maintained above that key $9.655 level rather than reversing lower does provide greater confidence for the bulls.

As such, bullish positions are preferred here, with a break back below the prior swing low of $88.63 required for a more neutral short-term view to take hold.

NG-4-hours-2022_08_23-09h18.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and wheat prices move higher

Commodity prices are moving up again after some losses earlier in the month, and a weaker dollar is helping these moves to gain some traction.

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 24 August 2022

Gold rebounds for a second day

After the declines of the last week or more the price has stabilised, potentially forming a higher low.

A renewed move higher would target the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1769, and then on towards the highs of mid-August at $1800. This would help to bolster the bullish view, while a move above the mid-August high might help to suggest that a medium-term recovery was now developing.

A fresh move below $1730 reverses this view and puts the sellers back in charge once more. This then targets the $1685 lows from July.

Gold_240822.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI makes further gains

The price continues to build on the trendline break from earlier in the week, and is now testing the 200-day SMA ($95).

The move higher over the week so far has seen the price breakout from trendline resistance and push on to the 200-day SMA at $95. From here the price then targets $98.20 and $100.06, which marked the highs on the way down in July.

It would require a reversal back below $90 to suggest that the sellers have the upper hand once again.

WTI_240822.pngSource: ProRealTime

Wheat heads back to resistance

Prices have rebounded over the week so far, and are now testing key resistance.

Since the middle of July the price has been unable to move on above 830. Having dipped to a new low last week the rebound has carried the price back to the crucial area of resistance.

Further gains would then target the 50-day SMA at 849, and then on to the 200-day SMA at 921.

A reversal would mark a bearish development and potentially signal a move to new lows below 750.

Wheat_240822.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent crude on the rise as natural gas falls into Fibonacci support

Gold and Brent crude start to regain lost ground, while natural gas retraces ahead of a likely turn higher.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 25 August 2022 

Gold on the rise, but wider picture brings risk of another bearish turn

Gold has regained ground over the course of the week. The precious metal has managed to follow up the consolidation seen over the course of Tuesday to push up through $1754 resistance level, thus completing an intraday higher high and higher low.

Much of this upward momentum has been born out of dollar weakness with markets turning upwards at the same time. However, there is a good chance that this current rebound is a short-term phenomenon and part of the bearish wider trend.

As such, while we could see further upside over the near-term, this current move higher is deemed to be a temporary retracement of the sell-off from $1803 before the bears take control once again.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_08_25-08h42.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude breaks resistance, to bring more positive outlook

Brent crude has managed to break out of the trend of lower highs with the move up through $99.72 also ensuring the trendline and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) are taken out.

The fact that we have now seen these key levels broken provides greater confidence for the bulls with price topping the $100 mark once again.

With that in mind, further upside does seem likely for crude, with a decline through $98.40 required to provide the first tentative sign of weakness.

However, we would ultimately require a decline through $91.17 to bring that wider bearish trend back into play here for Brent crude.

LCO-4-hours-2022_08_25-09h05.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas pullback brings potential buying opportunity

Natural gas saw a volatile start to the week, with Monday’s surge being subsequently reversed on Tuesday.

However, with winter demand set to rise, both European and US gas prices could easily continue to push upwards. That wider picture of tight supply and growing demand provides the basis for further upside, with this latest decline into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level ($9.126) bringing a good buying opportunity for bulls.

With the stochastic turning upwards from oversold territory, it is clear that momentum has also started to improve. Thus, bullish positions are favoured, with a decline through the $8.863 level required to negate that view.

NG-4-hours-2022_08_25-09h18.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and coffee holding up ahead of Powell Jackson Hole speech

Commodity prices have held firm in early trading, with investors in cautious mode as they wait for the chairman of the Federal Reserve and his speech at Jackson Hole.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 26 August 2022 

Gold holds firm as markets await Jerome Powell

Prices have rallied from the lows of the week, but some nervousness has crept in as Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech nears.

The price returned to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday, but fell back during the second half of the day. However the bullish view remains intact for the time being, and we could see a push back above $1767 to then open the way to the August high at $1800.

A reversal below $1740 would arguably hand sellers the initiative once again and suggest a drop to $1730, followed up by a possible move back to the $1685 lows from the middle of July.

Gold_260822.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI hovers just under the 200-day SMA

Oil prices were knocked back yesterday but have stabilised in early trading this morning.

Having reached the 200-day SMA on Wednesday the price dropped back on Thursday, but for now a further decline has been halted.

The price breached trendline resistance earlier in the week, and for the moment this bullish breakout remains intact. Further upside heads towards $98.60 and then $100.50.

A reversal below $92 could suggest another turn lower, and then below $90 the price would head back towards the August low. Below this a new lower low would be created.

WTI_260822.pngSource: ProRealTime

Coffee targets previous record high

Prices here have undergone a remarkable surge since the July low, firmly outperforming a host of other assets.

The price now targets the highs from the very end of 2021, at 2382, with a breakout above here putting it at new record highs.

A reversal below the 2288 level might suggest some near-term weakness, or at least some sideways consolidation for the time being.

Coffee_260822.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold, natural gas and oil price rallies stall

Recent bounces in the price of gold and Brent crude oil are losing upside momentum while natural gas prices remain subdued.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 September 2022 

Gold rally runs out of steam along August-to-September downtrend line

Gold is rallying for its third straight session whilst trying to overcome a one-month downtrend line at $1,729 per troy ounce, so far to no avail, as Russia’s state-owned energy giant, Gazprom, suspended gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline indefinitely on Friday, leading to flight-to-safety flows into gold on European recession fears.

Despite the current rally, the gold price remains in a technical downtrend, defined by lower highs and lows, and trades around 4.5% lower than its August peak, having last week dropped to $1,689, close to its $1,681 July low, before rallying.

While the downtrend line caps on a daily chart closing basis, this support area may be revisited. Minor resistance above the downtrend line can be found between the $1,755 early August low and the last reaction high on the daily chart, that is to say at the 25 August high at $1,765.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures hover above Friday’s low

Natural gas futures' slide from their August high at $9.97, made close to the psychological $10 mark, has taken place within a short-term downtrend channel with these now trading back below the late May and June highs at $9.53 to $9.43 despite Gazprom cutting off the flow of gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Friday.

In the short-term the contract seems to be holding above Friday’s $8.63 low and while it continues to do so, a rise back towards the upper downtrend channel line at $9.14 may ensue this week.

A drop and daily chart close below Friday’s $8.63 low would most likely push the early August high and mid-August low at $8.47 to $8.39 to the fore.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil rally loses momentum

Brent crude oil’s bounce off Thursday’s $91.71 low, made within the $92.75 to $91.17 July to August support area, seems to have fizzled out at yesterday’s $96.66 high as traders weigh the impact of the modest 100,000 barrels a day output cut from October by OPEC+ and the potential for further action from the group.

This amounts to roughly 0.1% of global demand and won’t help much in dealing with macroeconomic headwinds.

A rise and daily chart close above $96.66 would likely put the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $99.05 back on the cards. This will remain a possibility while the significant $92.75 to $91.17 support area continues to underpin.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, US natural gas and oil prices slip on stronger US dollar

Gold, US natural gas and Brent crude oil revisit key technical support areas.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 September 2022 

Gold hit by stronger US dollar

The gold price has taken a hit from a stronger US dollar and revisited its early September low at $1,689 per troy ounce before stabilising.

Gold remains within a technical downtrend, defined by lower highs and lower lows, and trades around 5.5% lower than at its August peak, having last week dropped to $1,689, close to its $1,681 July low, which represents key support. Failure there could trigger a swift sell-off to the March 2021 lows at $1,678 to $1,677 and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $1,674.

Minor resistance sits at Monday’s $1,707 low and more significant resistance at Tuesday’s peak at $1,726. While it isn’t bettered on a daily chart closing basis, the downtrend remains intact.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures dropped out of bed

US natural gas futures dropped around 5% on Tuesday, hitting a four-week low as soaring output coupled with lower demand forecasts dragged prices down.

The front month contract slid to $7.85 on Tuesday, close to the 55-day SMA at $7.83, a slip through which would push the August low at $7.54 back to the fore.

The sharp drop in the price of natural gas occurred despite the fact that inventories are 11% lower than their five-year norm.

Resistance now sits between the early August high and mid-August low at $8.40 and $8.47.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil weighs on significant support

Brent crude oil is retesting the significant $92.43 to $91.08 July to August support area despite Monday’s OPEC+ output cut by 100,000 barrels a day from October, amounting to roughly 0.1% of global demand, to counter a potential supply boost from Iran and bolster oil prices which have rapidly dropped on fears of an economic slowdown.

Were a fall through and daily chart close below the $91.08 August low to ensue, as seems probable at the moment judging by the technical outlook, OPEC+ may decide on further output cuts to try and keep the price of Brent crude oil above the $90 mark.

A two-year uptrend line comes in at $87.85 and represents important support, having propped up the oil price since 2020.

While the price remains below Monday’s $96.54 high on a daily chart closing basis it remains in a medium-term downtrend. Above $96.54 meanders the 200-day SMA at $99.12 which acts as a proxy as to whether a market is in an up- or downtrend, depending on whether an asset’s price trades above or below it.

In case of Brent crude oil, the fact that it now trades below the 200-day SMA implies that it is in a downtrend.

Brent chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber make tentative gains after prolonged period of downside

Gold, Brent crude and lumber show tentative signs of a possible upside move following a period where the sellers have been in charge.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 September 2022 

Gold starts to show some signs of strength above key support level

Gold has been on the rise over the past 24-hours, with the decline seen on Tuesday having taken us back into the $1689 support level established back on 1 September.

While it is that recent low which has held up, it should be noted that the most significant support level lies just marginally below at $1677. That level represented the beginning of three periods of recovery over the past two years, with a break below it required to signal a confident continuation of the recent bearish trend.

However, for now we are seeing the bulls attempt to make a charge higher, fuelled to a large extent by the same risk-on attitudes seen in equities of late. To the upside, a break above the $1726 level brings the completion of a double bottom formation, with such a move bringing expectations of further upside.

It should be noted that the wider expectations of equity market weakness and dollar strength should send gold lower before long. However, while the bearish preference still holds, the existence of the wider $1677 support level means it will take a break below that point to bring full confidence in that outlook.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_09_08-08h05.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude attempts to stabilise after yesterday's slump

Brent crude has seen plenty of downside over the course of the past 24-hours, with prices dropping through the $91.17 support level to ultimately break into the $87 region.

This new low helps build confidence of further downside, with short-term rebounds perceived as a retracement before this market rolls over once again.

To the downside, the $86.65 support level brings a key hurdle from a historical perspective, with both the peaks in October 2018 and 2021 coming in around the $86 mark.

With that in mind, it seems likely we will see some sort of upward retracement here, but bearish positions are favoured unless price breaks through the $86.65 support level.

LCO-4-hours-2022_09_08-08h14.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber finds support on critical $460 level

Lumber has been on the back foot over recent months with prices falling down into levels that have not being broken in over two years.

From a historical perspective the $460 threshold has been crucial, with both the October 2020 and August 2021 lows being formed at that level. A break below this mark would provide an undeniably bearish signal with the six month downtrend likely to continue.

Thus far we have respected this level with price making tentative moves towards the upside. As such it makes sense to be bullish and hope for a similar style rebound from here, with a drop through $460 required to bring a fresh two-year low that maintained the bearish trend evidenced over the past six months.

LB-4-hours-2022_09_08-08h34.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and copper prices edge higher

Commodity prices have moved up for another day, with a weaker dollar helping the asset class after a period of volatility.

BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 September 2022 

Gold edges higher

A weakening US dollar has provided scope for gold to move higher, but it has been a choppy progression.

$1725 has marked the limit of gains in the past week, but a move above $1730 would help to open the path to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - currently $1743 - and then on towards the previous lower high at $1766. Any turn lower below this level risks undoing the rebound and putting the price back on course for $1700 and lower.

For the moment, $1690 appears to hold as support, but if this is broken then $1685 is possible support. Having held since 2020, a drop below this is a firm bearish development.

Gold_090922.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI recovers for a second day

Oil has seen a second day of gains after its drop below support on Wednesday. But this limited bounce leaves the bearish view intact.

This week saw the price carve out a lower low in its move down from the June highs, and the continued reversal of the bounce of late August.

Having fallen below the lows of August, the price has now dropped down below $83.80, another possible support level. A failure to move back above this level would add to the bearish view, with the next major area of support potentially to be found at $76.50.

WTI_090922.pngSource: ProRealTime

Copper clocks up more gains

While other commodities have enjoyed limited upside, copper continues its recovery.

The price has now clawed back much of the ground lost in late August and the beginning of September, and has moved back above the 50-day SMA. It now targets the highs of August at 37,000.

It would take a move back below the 50-day SMA to reverse this view, and suggest that a new downward move that could breach the September low is on the cards.

Copper_090922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber on the rise as the dollar loses traction

Gold, Brent crude and lumber on the rise as the dollar loses traction, but can it last?

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 September 2022 

Gold attempting to regain ground after decline towards key support

Gold has been under pressure over much of the past month, with price falling back into the $1689 level at the beginning of September.

That decline saw price approach the key $1677 support level which has underpinned much of the price action over the course of the past two years.

Quite whether we will see that level broken to create a fresh multi-year low remains to be seen, with the recent dollar sell-off helping to drive gold higher towards the end of the past week.

However, this four-hour chart highlights how the bulls are not out of the woods quite yet, with price rising towards the $1736 Fibonacci resistance level.

A push up through the $1747 level would bring about a more optimistic view for this market, where a decline through the latest swing-low of $1704 would be required to bring about a renewed pessimistic outlook.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_09_12-07h35.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude on the rise as risk comes back to the fore

Brent crude has been regaining lost ground over the course of the past two trading days, with Thursday morning marking a low at the historically significant support level of $86.65. That $86-87 region represents the meeting point of both the October 2018 high, and October 2021 high.

From a long-term perspective, the gains seen over the course of early 2022 brought a break from a decade long downtrend, with price punching into a fresh 13-year high. That brings hope for bulls, with the declines seen over the course of the last three months looking like a retracement of the $65.73-131.51 rally.

With price having declined through the 61.8% retracement, the next major Fibonacci support level comes at $81.25 (76.4%). However, it should be noted that the wider uptrend does highlight the potential for a recovery at some point between here and $65.73.

We are yet to see that bullish reversal signal yet, with Friday’s gains looking more like a short-term retracement than a reversal thus far. A break up through the likes of $96.66 and $103.45 would bring that bullish reversal signal, with bearish positions favoured until then.

LCO-Daily-2022_09_12-08h27.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber rallies from key support level

Lumber has been on the rise after engaging with the critical $460 support level. That threshold represents the lows from August 2021 and October 2020, with a break below that low bringing a two-year low.

However, thus far we have respected that support level, with price on the rise after challenging it on three occasions. The longevity of this rebound is questionable through, as we would need to see price break from this recent downtrend to signal a bullish resurgence coming into play.

To the upside, traders should be aware of the key $523 resistance level, 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trendline dating back to March.

While we could see further near-term upside, we would need a break below $634 to truly end this downtrend. As such, keep an eye out for the reaction at $532 to guide short-term price action.

LB-4-hours-2022_09_12-08h36.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Lumber and Brent crude oil prices rally while gold rise pauses

Lumber up 25%, oil remains bid but gold rally stalls.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 September 2022

Brent crude oil continues to bounce off significant support

Brent crude oil’s recovery from its April 2020 to September 2022 uptrend line has taken a short-term breather after its three-day winning streak as traders await US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening plans and the trajectory of global growth.

A weaker US dollar and signs of ongoing supply tightness in physical markets recently helped the price of Brent crude oil rally by around 8% with the 5 September high at $96.66 being targeted in the near-term.

Key resistance comes in between the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) and the four-month downtrend line at $98.71 to $99.75.

Slips should find support between the early August to early September lows at $92.35 to $91.08.

Brent chartSource: ProRealTime

Gold down after hitting a two-week high

The gold price stalled at $1,735 per troy ounce on Monday after reaching a two-week high.

Despite its recent bounce gold remains within a medium-term downtrend, defined by lower highs and lower lows, and still trades around 4.5% lower than at its August peak.

Minor support below the 29 August low at $1,721 comes in between Monday’s low and the breached one-month downtrend line at 1,712 to 1,707.

Only a rise above Monday’s high at $1,735 would engage the 55-day SMA at $1,746.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber rallies by 25% on US rail strike fears

The price of lumber, which declined by over 65% from its March one-year high at $1,340 per thousand-feet boards, gapped higher yesterday and rose by 25% from its $460 early September low as a potential US rail strike threatens to cripple transportation.

US freight railroads and labour unions are trying to resolve a dispute over pay and conditions ahead of a planned walkout on 17 September which could have serious implications on shipments of grains, fertilizer, and energy at a time when the world increasingly turns to the US for food supplies.

Lumber, which makes up the US’s fifth largest top freight after corn, wheat and soybeans and its derivatives, is rapidly heading back up towards its $634 early August high, above which the late May and July highs can be spotted at $714 to $744.

The late August $522 high and lower end of yesterday’s large price gap at $516 may act as support, should an accord between US railroads and unions be reached and the rail strike be called off.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber at risk of another leg lower

Gold, Brent crude and lumber run the risk of a period of weakness going forward, with a break through resistance needed to negate bearish trend.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 15 September 2022 

Gold continues to head lower, hitting seven-week low

Gold has been hit hard over the course of the week thus far, with price tentatively breaking through the $1689 lows established earlier in the month.

Unfortunately for bulls, rising treasury yields and a strengthening dollar do little to benefit the price of gold, with price continuing to lose traction in a week that has been dominated by selling pressure.

To the downside, it is worthwhile noting the crucial support zone of $1677-1681. $1677 is undoubtedly the most important support level in view, with price having bottomed out and rebounded from that threshold on four occasions in the past 18 months. A decline through that point would bring about a fresh two-year low for gold.

For the near-term, any upside move would likely represent a retracement before the bears come back into play once again. Such a rebound would likely be short-term in nature, with a rise through $1707 required to signal a wider retracement of $1735 coming into play.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_09_15-08h46.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude on the front foot, with Fibonacci resistance coming into play

Brent crude enjoyed a relatively positive period despite concerns around recessionary pressures driving demand lower for crude products.

Doubts over the Iranian nuclear deal and considerations around the US ability to continue releasing crude from the SPR do provide some grounds for optimism going forward. However, a break above the $96.66 level would be needed to provide greater confidence from a technical perspective.

As things stand, we are looking at a potential retracement given the rally into 76.4% and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance.

As such, the trend of lower highs does present the high possibility that price turns lower from here, with a rise through the $96.66 level bringing about a fresh bullish signal for Brent crude.

LCO-4-hours-2022_09_15-08h52.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber starts to weaken after 61.8% retracement

Lumber finds itself within a critical zone this week, with price rebounding from the long-term support level of $460 on Monday. That level represents the lowest point in two years, with October 2020 and August 2021 both seeing major bottoms formed at this threshold.

That raises the likeliness of a similar bottom for lumber, with the potential for strikes on the US railroad bringing questions around supply over the near-term.

Meanwhile, from a seasonal perspective, the final quarter of the year has been the three standout months of performance for bulls. Thus, there is the basis for a potential year-end rally, with $460 marking the obvious place for that to start.

However, we would need to see a rise through the $634 swing-high to bring about a more confident bullish outlook for lumber. As things stand, we have seen a 61.8% rebound, with price turning lower since. Quite whether this represents the beginning of another leg lower that brings about a move through $460 remains to be seen.

Ultimately, the break through either $460 or $634 will inform us better on where the price of lumber will head going forward.

LB-Daily-2022_09_15-09h12.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and cotton prices come under selling pressure again

A renewed outbreak of risk aversion has hit commodities, driving gold and cotton lower and causing oil to reverse course again.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 16 September 2022 

Gold sits a new two-year low

Gold prices hit a fresh low yesterday, taking them to their lowest level since April 2021.

Yesterday marked a break below key support around $1685, that had held since June 2021, and the new lower low denotes a fresh strengthening of the downtrend that has now been in place since March.

Further declines now head towards $1644, and from there down to $1612.

Gold_160922.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI on the back foot again

Oil prices also fell yesterday, reversing the tentative gains of earlier in the week.

The $83.80 support level now comes into view, and then below this the price will head towards last week’s lows at $81.10. Below this the next major support level could well be found at $76.50.

If the price can find a short-term low, it may be able to move back towards the $89.20 area that marked the highs for September so far.

WTI_160922.pngSource: ProRealTime

Cotton heads back to 50-day moving average

Prices here have resumed their downward move, and are testing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) once more.

The price dropped sharply from the beginning of September, and a brief bounce mid-month failed to provide much bullish impetus.

A close below the 50-day SMA is a bearish development, and opens the way for a continued reversal towards the July lows.

A more bullish view requires a move back above 10,500, where gains stalled mid-month.

Cotton_160922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil, gold and lumber hold above recent lows ahead of FOMC

Crude oil, gold and lumber stabilise ahead of Fed rate hike decision.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 September 2022

Brent crude oil stabilises above significant support

Brent crude oil’s second September retest of its April 2020 to September 2022 uptrend line ahead of a plethora of major global interest rate decisions this week led to it levelling out above its early September and Monday’s lows at $87.62 to $86.99.

The oil price is expected to remain below last week’s $95.19 high over the next few days, however, as traders await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening plans and the trajectory of global growth.

Key resistance remains to be seen between the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) and the four-month downtrend line at $97.01 to $99.95.

Slips should find initial minor support at Thursday’s $89.51 low and more significant support at its recent September lows at $87.62 to $86.99.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Gold price stabilises after its near 2 ½ year low

The gold price managed to recover from last week’s near 2 ½ year low at $1,655 per troy ounce but is currently being capped by previous support, because of inverse polarity now resistance, between the $1,681 July low and the $1,689 early September low ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision where a 75-basis point (bps) hike is expected to be seen.

Further minor resistance comes in along the minor psychological $1,700 mark and at the late July low at $1,712.

Despite its minor bounce, gold remains within a medium-term downtrend channel, defined by lower highs and lower lows, and trades around 7.5% lower than at its August peak.

Minor support below last week’s trough at $1,655 can be spotted at the late March 2020 high at $1,644.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber tests breached resistance line following averted US rail strike

The price of lumber, which declined by over 65% from its March one-year high at $1,340 per thousand-feet boards, gapped higher and rose by 25% last week but has since given back all of its rapid gains as the first US rail strike in 30-years has been averted thanks to a “tentative agreement” between rail companies and unions.

The front month lumber futures contract sat on its breached March-to-September downtrend line - which now acts as a support line – for the past couple of days but is likely to soon revisit its $460 early September low as it clearly remains in a medium-term downtrend. This is because a series of lower lows and lower highs can be spotted on the daily chart.

Minor resistance can be found at the late August high close to $523.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and copper rise after recent losses

Commodity prices have recovered after yesterday’s losses although today’s Fed decision may prompt renewed volatility.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 September 2022 

Gold edges higher

Gold rose in early trading, but the overall bearish tone remains in place after yesterday’s losses.

The price continues to hold support around $1657, but with the fall below $1685 support it still seems a matter of when, not if, the price drops back once more. This would then bring support at $1630 into view.

A recovery above $1685 would be needed to suggest a short-term low is in place and indicate a rebound is in progress.

Gold_210922.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI pushes to one-week high

Oil prices weakened yesterday but have shown greater strength today, following Russian president Putin’s announcement of referendums in eastern Ukraine and a partial mobilisation of Russian reserves.

After weakening on Tuesday, the price has pushed back to $86.50. Further gains would target $89, which marked the highs in mid-September. Above this the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90.80 comes into view.

A reversal back below $83.80 would be needed to revive the downward move of the past month.

WTI_210922.pngSource: ProRealTime

Cotton prices rise after a run of losses

A three-day slump has stalled for the time being, but the overall bearish view remains in place.

Additional declines target 88.70, and then on down to 82.07, the latter level being the low from early July. Bearish momentum remains strong, as shown by the low stochastic readings of the past two weeks.

As yet there is little sign of a recovery; it would take a move back above 95.00 to suggest that a bounce may be developing.

Cotton_210922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber remain under pressure as recession fears dominate

Gold, Brent crude and lumber all continue to come under pressure, with dollar strength serving to exacerbate an environment dominated by recessionary fears.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 September 2022 

Gold heads sharply lower as Fed plan to raise rates higher, for longer

Gold has seen buying pressure unravel once again overnight, with the gains seen in the lead up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting failing to last.

The past week has seen the price of gold consolidate after the break into a two-year low, but there is a chance that we will soon see that downtrend kick back in with a move through $1654.

The FOMC meeting highlighted a willingness to continue raising rates, with the dot plot serving to highlight how the committee see rates rising to 4.6% next year. This comes to the benefit of the dollar, with the likes of gold taking the back foot once again.

With that in mind, further downside looks likely here, with a break back below $1654 required to kick-start the next downside move for this commodity.

Should that occur, a break up through the $1689 level would be required to bring a more neutral tone.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_09_22-08h03.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude turning lower after latest upside retracement

Brent crude has experienced a relatively choppy September thus far, with a number of factors driving sentiment over that period.

Doubts over the Iran deal and questions over the impact of the US ending its SPR oil releases have helped lift price, but ongoing recessionary fears have also caused weakness as traders consider the impact on demand going forward.

The downtrend seen over the course of the past three months does remain intact for now, with a break through the $95.19 level required to bring a more positive outlook.

Until then, further downside looks likely here.

LCO-4-hours-2022_09_22-08h17.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber tightens in on potential major breakout

Lumber has provided yet another spike in price this week, with the commodity rising 13% between Monday’s low and Tuesday’s high.

Coming from the critical $460 level, we need to watch out for a break to signal the intention of where we go from here. A move through $460 would bring about a fresh two-year low, with the price of lumber forming major bottoms at this level on two previous occasions during that period.

With that in mind, there is also a chance that we see another bottom come to fruition, with a rise through $578 needed to end the trend of lower highs and bring about a wider bullish outlook.

As such, the current descending triangle formation holds until we see price break either $460 or $578 to bring a new bias for this commodity.

LB-4-hours-2022_09_22-08h32.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and natural gas dropping back

A stronger dollar and fears of a recession are hitting commodity prices hard once again.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 September 2022 

Gold faces fresh weakness

The stronger dollar continues to make life difficult for gold, and while stuck in a range for the past week, the overall bearish view is still in place.

Two attempts this week to break back above $1685 have ended in failure, with indecision reigning in the preceding two sessions to today.

However, with the price dropping back in early trading a test of the recent lows at $1655 seems likely. Below this the $1630 level comes into play, last tested as resistance in March 2020.

Gold_230922.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI heads lower after reversal

Similarly, oil prices have headed lower after two sessions in which the price tried and failed to break above $85.

This marks the resumption of the downward move, and would suggest that the September low is about to be tested. Further declines bring $76.50 into view.

It would require a move back above $83.80 and then above $85 to suggest that a low has been formed.

WTI_230922.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas slumps again

The price has suffered a sharp fall and is back to levels last seen in July.

Further declines head towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 6517, while below this the 6050 low from June and then the July low around 5370 become potential downside targets.

Wednesday saw an attempt at a rally above 8000, but this was knocked back, and so any sustainable bounce has to move back above this level to suggest a fresh move back towards 9100.

NG_230922.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber head lower as recessionary fears lift the dollar

Gold, Brent crude and lumber come under pressure, as growth concerns and a strengthening dollar hurt sentiment.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 September 2022 

Gold falls into yet another multi-year low

Gold been hit hard at the hands of the dominant dollar, with the strength of the greenback helping to eradicate any haven demand for this precious metal.

With price having dropped back below the $1677 threshold, we are into levels not seen since the early days of Covid (April 2020).

With price having consolidated over the course of the past week, the decline through $1654 brings about a new phase of this sell-off. This points towards expectations of further downside to come, with another consolidation/retracement phase likely to take shape soon enough.

Both the intraday and long-term trend currently indicate a potential continuation of the ongoing bearish pattern, with bearish positions favoured unless we see otherwise. Thus, short positions remain prudent until we see the $1688 level breached.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_09_26-08h03.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude declines into eight-month low

Brent crude has managed to breach the $87 support level dating back to early September, with price falling into the lowest level since January.

The demand picture certainly remains under the microscope given expectations of widespread recessions, and a cost-of-living crisis that will likely curtail spending habits.

There is still a good chance that we see some support if Iranian talks break down or the US reverses SPR releases and starts to build up supplies once again.

This latest decline has taken price into the lower Bollinger Band, with a descending trendline also accompanying price around current levels.

With that in mind, there is a chance we see price hold up before long, with a decline through this zone needed to signal a potential drive into 76.4% Fibonacci support at $81.25.

To the upside, any near-term strength looks like a potential selling opportunity, with a bearish view holding unless price rises through the $95.19 swing-high.

LCO-Daily-2022_09_26-08h28.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber finally breaks through $460 support

Lumber has been under pressure over the course of the past week, with price finally breaking through the critical $460 support level.

That has brought about a fresh two-year low for this commodity, as concerns around the housing market and economic growth bring questions over demand going forward.

The fact that we have finally cleared out this critical support level means we are likely to see a bearish continuation here, with any near-term gains perceived to be a retracement of the sell-off from $578.

Unless that price is breached, short-term strength is seen as a selling opportunity within a clear long-term downtrend.

LB-Weekly-2022_09_26-08h29.pngSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

Brent crude oil and gold rally on falling US dollar and US natural gas prices

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas as US dollar sees steepest 4-day loss since July 2020 amid weaker than expected US ISM manufacturing data.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022 

Brent crude oil probes resistance on OPEC+ supply cut rumours

Brent crude oil’s recovery from its $82.55 September low is grappling with the breached 2-year uptrend line which, because of inverse polarity, now acts as a resistance line as rumours abound that OPEC+ will cut output by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.

This coupled with a weaker US dollar having witnessed its steepest 4-day loss since July 2020, helped the price of Brent crude oil recover by over 7% from its late September low.

Good resistance sits between the July, August lows and the 21 September high at $91.08 to $92.53. Further up the mid-September high, 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and five-month downtrend line can be spotted at $94.42 to $95.19.

Slips should find support near the early September low at $86.99 with further minor support being found at the 30 September trough at $84.93.

Brent chartSource: ProRealTime

Gold surges to 3-week high

The gold price’s 5% rally off its September 2 ½ year $1,616 per troy ounce low on a rapidly depreciating US dollar has taken it to above its $1,681 to $1,689 resistance zone which entails the July and early September lows.

In doing so it has left its August-to-October downtrend channel and is seen heading towards the 55-day SMA and 12 September high at $1,723 to $1,735. Any short-term retracement is likely to find initial support in the $1,689 to $1,681 zone.

Further down lies Monday’s low at $1,660.

Gold chartSource: Bloomberg

US natural gas futures slip to 2 ½ month low

US natural gas futures dropped around 4% on Monday, hitting a 2 ½ month low as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.9 in September, its lowest growth in factory activity since the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic as companies adjust to potential future lower demand.

On Monday the front month contract slid by over 6% to $6.370 on weak demand, to below the 200-day SMA at $6.623, another daily chart close below which would push the July low at $5.330 back to the fore.

On the way down minor support can be spotted at $5.955, the 12 July low. Resistance above the 200-day SMA comes in between the 27 and 29 September highs at $7.147 to $7.236.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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