News and Trade Ideas (Commodities)

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and coffee prices make gains

A weaker dollar and a broad risk-on move have helped lift commodity prices in general, although volumes are muted with a US holiday today.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Forex Commodities Gold Price Coffee United States

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 May 2022 

Gold returns to last week’s high

A weakening US dollar has given gold the space to move higher in early trading, as markets begin to make some revisions to their view on Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening over the course of the year.

While steady rises in interest rates are still expected, the latest set of Fed minutes suggested that policymakers are in no rush to ratchet up the tempo of rises, and may indeed be concerned already about the potential slowing of the US economy. As a result the dollar has weakened, and gold has managed to edge higher.

The first hurdle would be the move above last week’s highs at $1870. Should this go, then $1883 and $1907 come into view.

A reversal below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1840 hands the sellers the upper hand and targets the May lows at $1787 once more.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent prices make headway

While an immediate surge here seems off the cards now that a European ban on Russian oil imports becomes less likely, thanks to opposition from the likes of Hungary and others, the weaker dollar has provided a lift for oil prices.

After rallying last week, the price has been able to push on above the early May highs around $114, and seems to have the mid-March peak in sight.

From current levels, $120.50, the mid-March high, comes into view, while beyond this a continued bullish move would begin to target the early March surge high at $131.50.

Rising trendline support from early May has helped underpin price gains over the last two weeks, so a reversal below $114 would be needed to break this. From there $105 and then $101 come into view.

Source: ProRealTime

Coffee Arabica breaks higher

Coffee prices enjoyed a strong end to the week, joining in the general market rally and abetted by the weaker US dollar.

Coffee prices remain on the lookout for a dryer period of weather that will provide an additional upward lift, after a steady decline from the February highs.

The price has made a second attempt to break above trendline resistance from the February highs, and this time it may succeed. It has returned to the highs from mid-May around $2.28, with a further move higher targeting the April high at $2.37.

A reversal back below $2.20 would be needed to suggest that another move to the $2.10 support zone is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI at 3-month highs, natural gas and gold prices sidelined

Outlook on WTI is bullish as it heads towards $120, while natural gas and gold consolidate.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities WTI Gold Natural gas Market trend Relative strength index

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 May 2022 

Gold range trades above its 200-day SMA

The gold price continues to trade sideways above last week’s low and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,841 whilst staying below last week’s high at $1,869, following the publication of less hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week.

With market players coming back after prolonged weekends in both catholic Europe and the USA, volatility in the price of gold is likely to rise again, ahead of the UK’s four-day Queen’s Jubilee weekend which begins on Thursday.

Above last week’s high at $1,869 lies the April low at $1,873. Further up, the mid- and late March highs can be spotted at $1,891 to $1,895 and are expected to act as resistance ahead of the early May high and 55-day SMA at $1,900 to $1,909.

Minor support below the 200-day SMA at $1,841 can be spotted at the 17 May high at $1,836.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI trades in three-month highs as EU bans most Russian oil imports

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been rising every day for the past week and is now trading in three-month highs after European Union (EU) negotiators reached an agreement to ban 90% of Russian crude by the end of the year.

Demand for oil from China is also expected to pick up as large cities like Beijing and Shanghai are about to remove most of their stringent Covid-19 restrictions after a two-month long lockdown.

WTI is now trading at its highest level since 9 March and is gunning for the minor psychological $120 mark, above which the March peak can be seen at $126.74.

Slips should find support around the mid-May high at $113.30.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural Gas futures may soon decline as upside has become overextended

With the price of natural gas having risen by roughly 150% since the end of last year and the front month futures contract having hit a high of $9.43 last week amid ongoing fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region and heightened geo-political tensions, the psychological $10 mark seems to be within reach.

It should be noted, though, that several technical warning signs can be seen on the daily natural gas futures chart, namely a rising wedge formation and negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).

A rising wedge is formed when new highs are being compressed. This pattern is generally speaking a bearish chart formation as it indicates a possible trend reversal during an uptrend when the price slips through the lower uptrend line. This currently comes in at $8.56.

Furthermore, the latest price high at $9.43 has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily RSI which has made a lower high, thus diverging from the price. More often than not such a pattern leads to at least a short-term consolidation being seen and sometimes to a complete trend reversal.

Both of the above reasons mean that a fall through and daily chart close below the last reaction low – a low on a daily candle which is lower than that of the candle to its left and to its right – at Friday’s $8.29 low would likely trigger a bearish reversal and slide back towards the 55-day SMA at $7.00.

Strong resistance remains to be seen between the early and late May highs at $9.01 to $9.43.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Natural gas, gold prices dip while Brent tries to regain yesterday’s losses

The outlook on natural gas and gold has become short-term bearish while that of Brent crude oil remains bullish despite yesterday’s setback.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Petroleum Gold Brent Crude OPEC Federal Open Market Committee

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 June 2022 

Gold slips below its 200-day SMA

The gold price continues to oscillate around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,841 but is now trading below it for the first time in a week.

Following the publication of less hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week the price of gold came off its $1,869 late May high with the 18 May low at $1,807 being targeted while no rise back above the 200-day SMA is seen.

Resistance below last week’s high at $1,869 comes in at this week’s high at $1,864 and above it at the April low at $1,873. Further up, the mid- and late March highs can be spotted at $1,891 to $1,895.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil rejected by its March peak

The price of Brent crude oil saw a sharp reversal close to its $120.48 March peak on reports that some producers were considering suspending Russia’s participation in a production deal of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+), which could pave the way for more oil to be pumped.

On the back of this news the price of Brent crude oil, which briefly traded at $120.62, a level last seen on 9 March, came all the way back down to $115.01 yesterday before rallying again today in anticipation of Shanghai’s re-opening after a two-month lockdown.

The oil price initially rallied on Tuesday after European Union (EU) leaders agreed in principle to cut around two-thirds of Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

If the late March and yesterday’s highs at $120.48 to $120.62 were to be exceeded, the March peak at $131.51 would be back in focus.

Good support can now be found at previous strong resistance, namely between the mid-April to mid-May highs at $114.30 to $113.59.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures give technical sell signal

Natural gas futures are coming off last week’s high at $9.43 despite Russia’s Gazprom cutting gas supplies to Dutch trader GasTerra yesterday and announcing it would also stop gas flows to Denmark’s Orsted and to Shell Energy for its contract on gas supplies to Germany today, after they refused to pay for their gas in Russian roubles.

The natural gas contract has also triggered a technical sell signal by dropping out of its rising wedge formation, slipping through its one-month support line and closing below last Friday’s low at $8.29.

A rising wedge is formed when new highs are being compressed. Generally speaking, this pattern is a bearish chart formation as it indicates a possible trend reversal during an uptrend when the price slips through the lower uptrend line. A bearish trend reversal has now been triggered with a slide back towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $7.06 at hand.

On the way down minor support can be spotted at the 20 May low at $7.92 and then at the late April high at $7.51.

Minor resistance comes in along the breached one-month support line at $8.69 as well as at Monday’s $8.90 high and stronger resistance between the early and late May highs at $9.01 to $9.43.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil head down while corn prices stabilise

Gold and oil prices are down despite the gains towards the end of last week, while corn has held its ground.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 June 2022 

Gold weakens in early trading

Gold saw its gains from last week ebb away on Friday, as the dollar strengthened following the solid non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

The commodity had made headway over the week, rallying back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but gains have stalled below $1870.

Above $1875 the price would head towards the 50-day SMA (currently $1890), and then on towards $1907.

A broader move to the downside requires the price to drop back below $1830, which would then bring the May low at $1787 into view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI boosted by Saudi price increase

Oil prices continue their steady climb, pushed along by the sharp rise in prices by Saudi Arabia.

As yet there appears to be no sustained decline in demand expectations, and with lockdowns in China being eased we can expect a recovery in economic activity there.

The price now targets the March high at $126.74, having cleared the high from the second half of March at $114.83. Rising trendline support from the May low at $98.45 provides a firm bullish outlook. It would require a move back below $110 to suggest that a fresh move to the downside is underway.

Source: ProRealTime

Corn prices stabilise

Prices for this commodity have retreated since the April high, but expectations of further tight supply have seen support begin to emerge just above the $7.00 level.

A rebound from current levels, bolstered by fears about reduced levels of exports from Russia and Ukraine, would target trendline resistance from the late April high. From here $7.77 and $8.17 come into view.

A deeper retracement below $7.03 would potentially signal a reversal towards the 200-day SMA at $6.39.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent prices consolidate while natural gas futures soar

The outlook on natural gas, gold and Brent crude oil remains bullish despite the latter short-term consolidating.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Petroleum Natural gas Futures contract Brent Crude Gold

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 June 2022 

Gold trades back around the 200-day SMA

The gold price is once more oscillating around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,842, having come off last week’s high at $1,874 amid a stronger US dollar, firmer US treasury yields and a sluggish performance of Asia-Pacific indices.

Further sideways trading around the 200-day SMA is expected to take place this week with last week’s low at $1,829 perhaps being retested. If slipped through, the 18 May low at $1,807 would be targeted, below which the May trough can be spotted at $1,787.

Minor resistance remains to be seen between the late May highs at $1,864 to $1,869 and last week’s high at $1,874.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil consolidates below last week’s $120.99 high

The price of Brent crude oil is taking a breather below last week’s $120.99 three-month high as a commitment by OPEC+ to boost output has been followed by its main member, Saudi Arabia, raising its official selling prices for July for its customers in Asia and Europe.

As China emerges from its two-month lockdown, demand for oil is expected to increase, pushing the price even higher. An advance above the current June high at $120.99 would put the $125 area into play. Above it lie the minor psychological $130 mark and the March peak at $131.51.

Strong support remains to be seen between the mid-April to May highs and last week’s low at $114.30 to $112.20.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures trade at multi-decade highs

Natural gas futures have so far briefly risen above their $9.43 May high to levels last seen in August 2008 amid solid global demand for energy which continues to push natural gas prices higher.

Recent data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that working gas in storage is 15.1% lower compared to the five-year average as US crude oil inventories are also 15% below their five-year average for this time of the year, indicating that energy supply remains tight.

Despite this morning’s foray into multi-year highs the natural gas futures contract continues to show a rising wedge formation which may eventually lead to a trend reversal. This occurs when new highs are compressed and is a bearish chart formation as it indicates a possible trend reversal during an uptrend when the price slips through the lower uptrend line.

At present the uptrend line seems to be far away, though, at $8.47. Minor resistance comes in along a one-month resistance line at $9.70 as well as at the psychological $10 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI, natural gas trade near highs while lumber price drops to 8-month lows

The outlook on WTI and natural gas remains bullish while that of lumber is bearish.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities WTI Natural gas Price Gas United States

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 June 2022 

WTI trades close to 3-month highs

WTI has been trying to push through last week’s $118.98 high for the past three days, as the relaxation of China's Covid curbs and the summer driving season in the US are expected to increase demand, but so far to no avail.

Provided that no slip through yesterday’s low at $115.72 is seen, immediate upside pressure should be maintained with the minor psychological $120 mark being in focus once a rise above the current June high at $118.98 has occurred.

Next up are the $125 area and the March peak at $126.74. Good support below yesterday’s low at $115.72 remains to be seen along the uptrend channel support line and 17 May high at $113.31.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures remain close to multi-year highs

Natural gas futures yesterday briefly rose to $9.53, above their $9.43 May high, and to levels last seen in August 2008 amid solid global demand for energy which continues to push natural gas prices higher.

Recent data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that working gas in storage is 15.1% lower compared to the five-year average as US crude oil inventories are also 15% below their five-year average for this time of the year, indicating that energy supply remains tight.

Despite yesterday’s foray into multi-year highs, the natural gas futures contract continues to display a rising wedge formation which may eventually lead to a trend reversal. It occurs when new highs are compressed and is a bearish chart formation as it points to a possible trend reversal during an uptrend but only when the price slips through the lower uptrend line.

At present the uptrend line seems to be far away, though, at $8.56. Minor resistance comes in along a one-month resistance line at $9.74 as well as at the psychological $10 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber prices trade at 8-month lows

The price of lumber continues its descent amid soaring inflation and US mortgage rate rises which negatively impact the demand for the commodity.

US data from May showed that 54% of US home builders say that higher mortgage rates are having a detrimental effect on their business. The sharp drop by nearly 55% from its March one-year high at $1,340 per thousand-feet boards in the price of lumber has so far taken it close to its November low at $592 as production has been ramped up in some areas of the US. Together with the mid-September low at $571 it may offer interim support.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained as long as the price of lumber remains below its last reaction high, that is to say a candle which has a higher high than that to its left and right as was the case yesterday at its $647 high.

Slightly further up the 4-month downtrend line can be spotted at $693.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold moves sideways, as oil rebounds, while corn prices pause for breath

Gold is still struggling to move out of its current range. Meanwhile oil prices are looking to make further gains, while corn has stalled after a mid-week rebound.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 June 2022 

Gold still stuck in a range

While Tuesday saw a bounce off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1842, the move higher has stalled around $1850, and the two-week range is still largely intact.

Gains have been contained around $1867, while moves to the downside have run into support at $1839 or $1830, with no sign that this range is about to be broken in either direction.

On the downside, $1807 and then $1787 become the levels to watch in the event of a drop. Meanwhile, a bounce back above $1870 would then move on to challenge $1907.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI targets March highs

Oil prices have had another good week, rallying yesterday to their highest level since early March. The current uptrend seems set to continue, with the March high at $126.74 now in sight once again.

Gains have been underpinned by trendline support from the early May low at $97.10, and by high stochastic readings that denote the strength of the upward move.

At present there is little sign of a reversal, with a drop below $115 needed to break both trendline resistance and also put the price below horizontal support around this level.

Source: ProRealTime

Corn rebound slows

Three days of gains have helped corn to recover some of the losses of the past five weeks, but further resistance lies ahead. Trendline resistance from the April high will be the next challenge, and may well come into play around the 7.50 mark.

In addition, the 50-day SMA (7.67) is another level to watch on the upside; a break above here would help to restore a more bullish view and open the way to the April high.

Alternately, the price may test trendline support around 7.20 again, with the late May low around 7.03 in view next.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent prices slightly lower while lumber drops to nine-month lows

Gold outlook points to further range trading while Brent crude oil pauses its ascent and lumber drops to nine-month lows.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Brent Crude Price Gold United States Lumber

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 10 June 2022 

Gold continues to oscillate around 200-day SMA

The gold price remains between a rock and a hard place whilst range trading around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,842 and remaining below its $1,874 early June high but above its $1,829 early June low amid a stronger US dollar, firmer US treasury yields and weaker global equity indices.

Further sideways trading around the 200-day SMA is likely to ensue with last week’s low at $1,829 perhaps being revisited. If slipped through, the 18 May low at $1,807 would be targeted, below which the May trough can be spotted at $1,787.

Minor resistance remains to be seen between this week’s and the late May highs at $1,859 to $1,869 and minor support at Tuesday and Thursday’s lows at $1.841 to $1,838.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent comes off its recent highs for second day

The price of Brent crude oil is taking a breather below this week’s $123.52 three-month high as China is looking to reimpose lockdowns in half of Shanghai’s districts, signalling the return of concerns about possible supply bottlenecks and economic growth.

Brent prices have so far revisited their May peak at $120.62, a slip through which would engage the late March high at $120.48 as well as the minor psychological $120 mark. Further down this week’s low can be found at $117.89. While $117.89 underpins, the uptrend remains intact, however.

An advance above the current June high at $123.52 would push the $125 zone to the fore. Above it lie the minor psychological $130 mark and the March peak at $131.51.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber prices trade at nine-month lows

The price of lumber continues to slide amid soaring inflation and US mortgage rate rises which negatively affect US home builders and the demand for the commodity.

The sharp drop in the price of lumber by nearly 57% from its March one-year high at $1,340 per thousand-feet boards has so far taken it through its November low at $592, close to its mid-September low at $571, as production has been ramped up in some areas of the US.

Should lumber prices not find support around the $571 level, the July and August 2021 lows at $505 to $497 would be eyed next.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the price remains below its last reaction high, that is to say a candle which has a higher high than that to its left and right as was the case at Monday’s $647 high.

Slightly further up the four-month downtrend line can be spotted at $669.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and cotton weaker in early trading

The dollar is higher this morning, with commodities under pressure across the board.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 June 2022 

Gold reverses some of Friday’s bounce

Friday’s outburst of risk-off sentiment sent gold rallying back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1842, having started to move below it earlier in the day.

This now puts the commodity back around the $1866 highs that have marked the limit of upward progress since mid-May.

While the price is under pressure this morning, it would require a move back below the 200-day SMA to suggest that the sellers remain in control, and then support at $1830 comes into view, followed by $1787.

Alternately, a recovery targets $1875, and then on to $1907, the high from late April.

Source: ProRealTime

Stronger dollar hits WTI

A strengthening dollar has managed to take some of the shine off WTI at the end of last week, with additional losses in early trading this morning.

This now puts horizontal support at $114.83 into view, with trendline support from early May coming into play just below this level. Additional downside would bring $110.70 and $107.68 into view as possible support.

If the price bounces from support, then last week’s high around $121 is the first target, and then to the March highs at $124.70.

Source: ProRealTime

Cotton struggles in early trading

Cotton’s strong rally is definitely looking weaker, as the price falters in early trading after Friday’s failed attempt to move back above post-December 2021 trendline support.

Short-term support from the beginning of June is now likely to be tested, with horizontal support at $1.2288 and then $1.2136 coming into view as well.

For the moment the bullish view might just be hanging on, but a recovery above $1.30 would help, though this would bring trendline resistance from the May high into view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil recover, while orange juice comes under pressure

Gold has been able to recover today, while oil prices are attempting to shrug off the weakness from earlier in the week. Meanwhile, orange juice prices are struggling.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 June 2022 

Gold rebounds and recovers 200-day SMA

Gold has managed to bounce from its lows of the week, having dropped to a four-week low on Tuesday. Yesterday’s bounce saw the price move back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1843, helping to reverse the looming bearish view.

Continued gains target $1854, $1863 and then $1875, the last marking the peak of progress over the past month.

Sellers will want to see a reversal that takes the price back to, and then below, the week’s low at $1805. Below this the May low at $1787 comes into view.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent bounces from $114

The losing run of the past week may well have come to an end here, as the price recovered in Thursday’s trading.

The commodity bounced from $114, and if we see some additional gains that put it back above $120 then a fresh attempt to move above $123.50 may develop.

From there the price would once again target the March peak at $131.51.

At present the bullish view is still only tentative, and a drop back to and then below $114 would put the sellers in charge once again.

Source: ProRealTime

Orange juice slips below 50-day SMA

Orange juice prices have declined all week, and have now slipped below the 50-day SMA for the first time since March.

The price broke below trendline support on Tuesday, and gains to the upside have been contained by trendline resistance from the June high. Additional downside now targets the 16,358 support level that helped prevent further downside in April and May.

A recovery above 17,670 would help to suggest that a bounce back towards the June highs is now in play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and cotton prices keep falling

Commodity prices are under pressure again, with oil and cotton continuing their falls from last week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 June 2022 

Gold stalls below 200-day SMA

Gold prices have lost some of their momentum after the bounce last Wednesday and have fallen back below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) once again.

Nonetheless, the bullish view may yet prevail if the price can avoid additional losses below $1830. Further declines below this level would target last week’s low at $1805, and then on down towards $1787.

In the short-term, bulls will want to see a move back above $1854, which will then open a path towards $1863 and $1876, with a move above the last of these helping to break resistance of the past few weeks.

Source: ProRealTime

No end to the selling in WTI

After Friday’s sharp fall, the price has continued to drop, as concerns about global growth outweigh the expectation of recovering demand and tight supply due to the Ukraine conflict.

The price has fallen below the 50-day SMA for the first time in a month, and it now heads towards $1.0320, the low from 19 May. The price held above trendline support from early April during Friday’s session, and is likely to test it once again today.

A rebound from support puts $110.70 and then $114.80 into play, and then on towards the June peak at $121.43.

Source: ProRealTime

Cotton continues to fall

The commodity has had another tough week, slumping from $1.30 after a brief recovery in early June.

The surge in prices has acted as a break on demand, as well as prompting an increase in future expected supply. As a result the price has declined for two consecutive months for the first time since early 2020.

In terms of downside targets, the price now heads towards the 200-day SMA (currently $1.1856), and then on to the early March lows around $1.1569.

As yet there seems to be little sign of a rebound. This would require a rally back above $1.2380, which would then target the top end of the current descending channel towards $1.2550.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and corn weaken, as oil makes a recovery

Gold and corn prices have been falling, weakening once again after a failure to move higher. Brent has bounced from the 50-day moving average, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 June 2022 

Gold heads lower

After holding steady yesterday it looks like a fresh move lower could be developing here.

The price is dropping back once again from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1843 and now could see a bigger move back towards $1805 and then $1787.

For now it looks like the buyers are unable to regain control over the price, but a rebound above $1850 could reverse this view, putting a move back to $1875 into view.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent bounces from 50-day MA

Oil prices took a hit over the past week and more thanks to concerns about weakening demand, but after falling to the 50-day SMA on Friday the price has stabilised.

A continued rebound from the current level, forming a higher low, helps to maintain the uptrend, and puts the highs of early June at $123 back into view.

A reversal below $110 would be needed to put a dent in the current bounce, and could prompt additional losses towards the $100 level.

Source: ProRealTime

Corn falters below trendline support

The move higher in corn prices from the low of early June looks to be under pressure.

After rallying on Friday the price hit trendline resistance yesterday at 760 – this failure to break higher has prompted a sharp reversal, and the price has fallen below trendline support from the June lows.

This now puts the 705 level into view, which acted as support in late May and also back in late March. Below this the 660 level comes into view.

A rally back above 750 would be needed to reverse the looming bearish move.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, WTI and aluminium prices slip on recession fears

Gold, WTI and aluminium outlook remains bearish ahead of Fed chair’s testimony to Congress.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Forex Commodities WTI Gold Recession Price

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 June 2022 

Gold is seen gradually declining

The gold price, which last week briefly dropped by around 3% before recovering, continues its descent but at a slower pace, ahead of the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s appearance before the US Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

This will be closely followed by market players. While the price of the precious metal remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,844 per troy ounce, the mid-June low at $1,806 will stay in sight.

Minor resistance above the 200-day SMA can be spotted at the 16 June high at $1,857. While the next higher current June highs at $1,874 to $1,877 cap, the last few months’ downtrend remains in place.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI drops on recession fears

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has dropped by over 13% from its $121.43 early June high as recession fears grow following last week’s aggressive rate hikes by several major central banks around the globe.

Mounting concerns that rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation may cause a slowdown in demand have pushed WTI down to its two-month support line at $103.75, around which the price of oil currently trades.

If slid through on a daily chart closing basis, the psychological $100 mark, and the May low at $97.28 may be reached within days.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while Tuesday’s high, the last reaction high (with a higher high than that seen the day before and after), at $110.82 isn’t overcome.

Minor resistance below this level can be seen at the 17 June low at $106.37 and also along the 55-day SMA at $108.07.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium trades near one-year lows as fears of global recession bite

Aluminium’s swift decline due to worries of a potential global recession decreasing demand for the metal has taken its price close to Monday’s low at $2,481 with the July 2021 lows at $2,432 to $2,421 representing the next downside targets.

These levels will remain in view while aluminium stays below Tuesday’s high at $2,558 on a daily chart closing basis.

Further resistance can be found at the December 2021 low at $2,582 and more significant resistance at the $2,649 16 June high.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and natural gas move cautiously higher, while oil price struggle

It is a quiet morning in commodity markets, but gold and natural gas have edged higher, while oil prices are trying to stabilise after yesterday’s sharp fall.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 June 2022 

Gold pushes up in early trading

An indecisive session yesterday saw the price stuck fast, unable to make much progress higher or lower. However, the buyers may view it as a win since they halted the three days of losses for the commodity, and held support at $1830.

Some small gains this morning have seen it rally off support, and now a test of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) looms.

A recovery above $1854 would cancel out the bearish view, and suggest another attempt to break above the June highs at $1875 is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI under pressure after fall

After yesterday’s heavy falls the price has managed to stabilise above $104 for the time being, rallying off the overnight lows. Recession fears drove the price sharply lower, with investors fretting about the outlook for global growth.

Further gains in the short-term would head towards the 50-day SMA (currently $109.15), and then additional gains head towards $110.70 and $114.83.

Fresh declines target yesterday’s low at $101.30, and then on towards $97.30 and $95.11.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas edges higher

The price returned to the support level around 64.60 that held in April and May, although for now the bounce is fairly weak.

Additional gains target trendline resistance from the June high, towards 72.05. A break above here is needed to provide a more firmly bullish view.

A move below the support zone and then below 63.80 will open the way to the 54.40 peak from February.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, WTI and aluminium prices continue to slide

Gold, WTI and aluminium outlook remains bearish ahead of the weekend.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities WTI Gold Price Aluminium United States

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 June 2022 

Gold continues to glide lower

The gold price continues its orderly descent after the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s appearance before the US Congress on Wednesday and Thursday in which he mentioned the possibility of a recession in the US and that his commitment to bringing down price increases is “unconditional.”

While the price of the precious metal remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,844 per troy ounce, which capped it throughout this week, the mid-June low at $1,806 will remain in sight. Minor resistance above this week’s high at $1,848 can be found at the 16 June high at $1,857.

While the next higher current June highs at $1,874 to $1,877 cap, the last few months’ downtrend remains in place.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI about to enter its second negative week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has dropped by around 15% from its $121.43 early June high as demand worries have had a negative impact on its price.

Mounting concerns that rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation may cause a slowdown in demand have pushed WTI down to its two-month support line at $104.43, around which the price of oil currently trades.

If this week’s low at $101.22 were to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, the psychological $100 mark, and the May low at $97.28 may be next in line.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while Tuesday’s high, the last reaction high (with a higher high than that seen the day before and after), at $110.82 isn’t overcome.

Minor resistance below this level can be seen at the 17 June low at $106.37 and also along the 55-day SMA at $108.33.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium trades in near one-year lows on demand woes

Aluminium’s swift descent due to worries of a potential global recession decreasing demand for the metal has taken it close to the July 2021 low at $2,421 which has been one of our downside targets for several weeks now.

Failure at $2,421 would put the June 2021 low at $2,355 on the cards. The immediate downtrend will remain intact while the price of aluminium stays below Tuesday’s high at $2,558 on a daily chart closing basis since it is the last reaction high on the daily chart.

Further resistance can be found at the December 2021 low at $2,582 and more significant resistance at the $2,649 16 June high. Immediate resistance sits at Monday’s $2,481 low.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Oil price rallies for third day while gold and aluminium stabilise

WTI outlook is bullish short-term while gold and aluminium views are neutralised.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Petroleum WTI Gold Price of oil Aluminium

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 June 2022 

Gold remains sidelined

The Spot Gold price continues to range trade below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,844 per troy ounce, which capped it throughout this and last week, with the mid-June low at $1,806 remaining in sight as US treasury yields remain at elevated levels.

Further down the May trough can be spotted at $1,787. Minor resistance above the April-to-June downtrend line and 200-day SMA at $1,844 comes in at last week’s high at $1,848 with further resistance sitting at the 16 June high at $1,857.

While the next higher current June highs at $1,874 to $1,877 cap, the last few months’ downtrend remains in place.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI is seen rallying once more

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s around 15% slide from its $121.43 early June high probably ended at last week’s $101.22 low with it now having left its downtrend channel to the upside on supply concerns.

The price of oil is rising for the third session in a row, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are reportedly very close to their near-term capacity limits while the G7 has vowed to impose new sanctions which aim to cap the price of Russian oil. Added to that are worries that political unrest in Ecuador and Libya might curtail oil supply from these nations.

The early May high at $110.48 is currently being probed with the mid-May high at $113.30 being next in line and then the mid-June peak at $116.53.

Minor support below the 55-day SMA at $108.86 sits at the 17 June low at $106.36.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium stages minor recovery rally off its near one-year low

Aluminium’s swift descent due to worries of a potential global recession decreasing demand for the metal has taken it close to the July 2021 low at $2,421 by dropping to $2,423 last week before trying to stage a minor recovery rally.

The immediate downtrend will remain intact while the price of aluminium stays below last Tuesday’s high at $2,558 on a daily chart closing basis, though, since it represents the last reaction high on the daily chart.

Further resistance can be found at the December 2021 low at $2,582 and more significant resistance along the three-month downtrend line at $2,596 as well as at the $2,649 16 June high.

Failure at $2,421 would put the June 2021 low at $2,355 on the cards.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Oil and natural gas prices probe resistance while gold continues to drift lower

The outlook on oil and natural gas remains bullish while the price of gold slips.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Gold Natural gas Petroleum Futures contract Price of oil

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 June 2022 

Gold continues to glide lower

The price of Spot Gold continues to come off its its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,845 per troy ounce, which capped it throughout this and last week, with the mid-June low at $1,806 remaining in sight as US treasury yields surge once more.

Further down the May trough can be spotted at $1,787. Minor resistance above the April-to-June downtrend line and 200-day SMA at $1,841 to $1,845 comes in at last week’s high at $1,848 with further resistance sitting at the 16 June high at $1,857.

While the next higher current June highs at $1,874 to $1,877 cap, the last few months’ downtrend remains in place.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil revisits its mid-May high

Brent crude oil’s rally from last week’s low at $104.92 has taken it back to the mid-May high at $114.30, around which it currently struggles, as investors balance concerns over a potential demand slowdown with signs of ongoing supply tightness.

If the $114.30 level were to be overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the late March and late May highs at $120.48 to $120.62 may be reached next.

Slips may find support along the 55-day SMA at $111.75 and at the 20 June low at $109.76.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas futures stage a minor recovery rally

Natural gas futures have been rising over the past three sessions as they are recovering from their $6.07 three-month current June low amid renewed supply worries.

The 14 June low and 21 June high at $6.95 to $7.01 represent an immediate upside target which may cap the current advance, though. Further up the 27 April high at $7.51 may also offer minor resistance.

Slips may find support around the $6.48 10 May low ahead of the current June low at $6.07.

If it were to be slipped through, the 200-day SMA at $5.64 would be next in line, below which the November 2021 and January 2022 highs can be found at $5.51 to $5.43.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil under pressure as platinum fights to hold support

Gold and oil prices have fallen once again, while platinum is fighting to hold support after its declines earlier in the week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 June 2022 

Gold edges down again

The price has steadily declined over the past few days, as the dollar has strengthened once again. Hopes of a rebound have certainly been dashed.

Additional declines target the 14 June low at $1805, and then on towards the May low at $1787. Intraday rallies have been firmly sold over the past week, with the price unable to hold on to the highs of each session. This provides overhead resistance to any sustained bounce.

A rally above $1830 would be needed to break trendline resistance and provide a more short-term bullish view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI heads lower

The rally of the past week looks to have run its course, unless buyers can step in soon and reverse the budding bearish view.

After surging at the end of last week and into this week, it looks like the price could be on the cusp of a lower high. It rallied in the early part of yesterday’s session but then fell back from the high at $112.89 and continued to reverse, falling below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) once again.

Further losses today have resulted in a bearish stochastic crossover on the daily chart, opening the way to the 100-day SMA (currently $105.53) sand then down to the 22 June low at $101.21.

A bounce back above the $110.70 level would be needed to reverse this view, and then open the way to another test of Wednesday’s high.

Source: ProRealTime

Platinum hovers in key support zone

The commodity has once again dipped into a key support level that has held since September, which may set the stage for a bounce.

However, the price will also have to contend with trendline resistance from the March high, should a sustained bounce develop. This halted gains in June, and may provide an impediment to further gains if a multi-session rally can develop.

Short-term resistance from the 21 June high also needs to be broken, which would point towards a move above $930.

The sustained bearish case now requires a move below $900 to open the way to more losses, breaking below the support zone of the past nine months.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Natural gas sees worst monthly drop in over three years while oil and gold also slide

The outlook on natural gas, Brent crude oil and gold remains bearish in the short-term.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Natural gas Petroleum Gold Liquefied natural gas Brent Crude

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 01 July 2022 

Gold drops for third consecutive week

The price of Spot Gold continues to come off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,845 per troy ounce with the May trough at $1,787 remaining in sight.

The price of the precious metal is on track for its third consecutive lower weekly close, having fallen every single day this week. Below $1,787 lies the January low at $1,854.

Minor resistance can be spotted at the April-to-July downtrend line and at Wednesday’s high at $1,833 and further resistance along the 200-day SMA at $1,845. While remaining below it, the price of gold is considered to be bearish.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil heads for third straight weekly decline

Brent crude oil formed a minor top at $116.16 earlier this week before tumbling back towards its March-to-July uptrend line at $105.90 on concerns that a potential recession will decrease demand.

The recent slide in the price of oil has come as OPEC+ on Thursday agreed to stick to its output strategy, increasing production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August at a time when Saudi Arabia and the UAE are apparently already very close to near-term capacity.

Below the four-month uptrend line at $105.90 sits the June low at $104.92 which represents another potential downside target.

Potential bounces should encounter minor resistance between the 20 June low at $109.76 and the 55-day SMA at $111.69.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas posts worst month in three years on oversupply worries

Natural gas futures plunged by around 15% on Thursday to a three-month low at $5.37 as the shutdown of the Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas allowed utilities to stockpile more fuel than expected.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Thursday that inventory for the week ending June 24 rose by 82 billion cubic feet, sparking fears of an oversupplied market which led to natural gas futures posting their worst month in more than three years.

Thursday’s intraday low was made marginally below a key support area which consists of the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at $5.51 to $5.43 and which may be revisited today but is likely to hold with yesterday’s low at $5.37.

If not, the early March high at $51.89 would be back in the frame. Resistance sits at the 24 June low at $6.06.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil prices higher, but wheat drops rapidly

Gold and oil prices have continued the recoveries seen on Friday, but wheat prices have resumed their sharp falls from the end of last week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 July 2022 

Gold steady after Friday rebound

After slumping to a six-week low in the first half of the session, gold recovered to end the day with small gains, and finished the week above $1800.

This remarkable recovery seems to offer the bulls a chance to seize control after the losses of late June. It must be said that the slump and bounce still leaves the downtrend since mid-June intact. We would need to see a move above $1825, the high from 30 June, to break the sequence of lower highs.

Continued losses target Friday’s low at $1786. A bounce above the $1825 level puts the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) back in view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI continues Friday’s recovery

Oil prices stabilised on Friday after dropping below the 50-day SMA mid-week, and have pushed cautiously higher in early trading today.

The price stabilised above $104, providing a short-term level of support, and in early trading today the 100-day SMA at $105.82 has provided support. A continued move higher would look towards the 50-day SMA at $109.77, and then to last week’s closing high of $110.70.

A reversal below $104 brings $102 into view, and then down to the 10/11 May support zone around $98.

Source: ProRealTime

Wheat drops sharply again

The losses here continue, as the price drops back below the November 2021 peak and hits its lowest level in over four months.

The next level to watch is the $8.25 area, the peak from December 2021 and January 2022. The breach of the 200-day SMA ($9.10) on Friday marked a firm bearish development, and leaves the sellers firmly in control.

As yet there is little sign of a bounce developing, and even if it does develop it would still encounter trendline resistance from the May high.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent pauses ascent as gold and natural gas prices little changed

The outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and natural gas is little changed as US markets return following Independence Day.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Natural gas Brent Crude Gas International Energy Agency Gold

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 July 2022 

Gold little changed

Gold traded in a tiny range yesterday as the US benefitted from a prolonged weekend due to Independence Day.

The precious metal is little changed today, having formed a Hammer formation on the daily candlestick chart last Friday. Such a pattern is usually followed by a bullish reversal.

A rise above yesterday’s high at $1,814 would engage the April-to-July downtrend line at $1,829 and also the 29 June high at $1,833.

Slips may find support around the minor psychological $1,800 mark today. Below it more significant support can be made out between the May and current July lows at $1,787 to $1,785.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude pauses advance on supply woes

Brent crude oil reached its one-month resistance line at $113.55, and briefly rose to $113.88 on the back of a strike by Norwegian offshore workers. The strike begins on Tuesday and is expected to cut around 130,000 barrels of the country’s daily production, before coming off again on concerns a recession will eventually lower energy demand.

While last week’s high at $116.16 isn’t bettered, sideways trading between this level and the June low at $104.92 remains to be seen.

Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $111.85 can be found at the $112.22 20 June low and more important support at last Friday’s $107.76 low.

Above $116.16 sits the 17 June high at $119.31.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas slips back towards its 200-day SMA

Natural gas futures plunged by around 15% last week to a three-month low at $5.37.

This followed a report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday that inventory for the week ending June 24 rose by 82 billion cubic feet, sparking fears of an oversupplied market which led to natural gas futures posting their worst month in more than three years.

Since then the price of natural gas managed to heave itself back above the 200-day SMA at $5.65, around which it has held over the past three trading days. This is as Norwegian offshore workers begin to strike on Tuesday, reducing supplies, and as the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest quarterly market report said it expects gas usage to slip 0.5% this year as reduced economic activity in Asia and a sharp fall in European gas demand overshadows more buoyant markets in the US.

Key support remains to be seen between the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at $5.51 to $5.43 and last week’s low at $5.37. If giving way, the early March high at $5.19 would be in the frame.

Resistance sits at the 24 June low at $6.06.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and natural gas prices look fragile after Tuesday’s sharp sell-offs

The outlook on gold, oil and natural gas remains fragile after Tuesday’s US dollar-induced sharp falls.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities WTI Commodity market Gold Natural gas Petroleum

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 06 July 2022 

Gold targets December low after US dollar-induced sell-off

On Tuesday gold dropped out of its last couple of months’ trading range by slipping through the May and early July lows at $1,787 to $1,785 to a seven-month low on recession fears and US dollar flight-to-safety strength with investors selling commodities across the board, even gold.

The October and December 2021 lows at $1,754 to $1,746 are thus in focus, a slide through which would engage the September low at $1,722.

Minor resistance, which previously acted as support, can now be seen at $1,785 to $1,787 with further minor resistance being spotted at the $1,806 mid-June low.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI remains fragile after Tuesday’s 9% drop

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s around 9% slide from its $109.65 Tuesday high took it close to its $95.12 late April low as recession fears and thus lower demand provoked the sharp sell-off to below the minor psychological $100 per barrel mark.

The fall through and daily chart close below the three-month uptrend line and June low put the late April low at $95.12 on the map, a drop below which would eye the mid-March and April key support zone as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $92.69 to $92.45.

Since previous support creates resistance, because of inverse polarity, this can now be found between the June low and breached uptrend line at $101.22 to $102.90 as well as at the $103.39 1 July low.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas recovers to its 200-day SMA after slide

Natural gas futures plunged by another 5% on Tuesday, following last Thursday’s sharp 15% fall to marginally below last week’s $5.37 low, as concerns about a potential recession rattled commodity markets and pushed these down to $5.33 before recovering later in the day on bargain hunting.

The 200-day SMA at $5.65, around which it held on Monday, is currently acting as resistance with further resistance coming in at the past three days’ highs at $5.86 to $5.94 as well as at the 24 June low at $6.06.

Key support remains to be seen between the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at $5.51 to $5.43 and last as well as this week’s lows at $5.37 to $5.33.

If slipped through, the early March high at $5.19 would be next in line.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and cotton prices tiptoe higher after heavy losses

It has been a torrid time for commodity prices, which have endured sharp falls in recent sessions.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 07 July 2022 

Gold hits ten-month low

The price has dropped to its lowest level since September 2021, after a dramatic slump that has seen it lose 4% in around 48 hours.

Additional declines would target the September 2021 low at $1721, and below this the 2021 low and key support at $1685 comes into play. The bearish view is cemented by the ‘death cross’ of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA, which has not occurred in almost a year.

It will be hard to build a bullish view from here, but a recovery above $1750 might at least point towards a rebound in the direction of $1787, previously support but now resistance.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI heads back to 200-day moving average

It has been over six months since WTI was this close to the 200-day SMA.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the $94 support zone that was so important back in March continues to hold, with the nearness of the still-rising 200-day SMA providing an additional reason for bulls to hope for a bounce.

A close below the 200-day and below the $94 support zone would be a bearish development, and potentially open the way to $83.80 in the medium term.

Source: ProRealTime

Cotton prices steady after big falls

Cotton prices have endured a fresh slump this week, returning to a support level last seen in September 2021. This matches with what we are seeing across a host of commodities, as the great inflation of 2022 suddenly gives way to price declines.

Additional falls target the May 2021 low at 81.60 cents, and then down to the March/April 2021 low at 78.35 cents.

Given how sharply oversold the price is, some kind of rebound is to be expected, but the price encountered heavy selling last week at 99 cents, so this needs to be breached if even a short-term bounce is to develop.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and copper prices stabilise ahead of US unemployment data

The short-term outlook on gold, oil and copper is cautiously bullish after a week of sharp declines.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities WTI Gold Petroleum Copper Recession

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 08 July 2022 

Gold expected to find support around the $1,722 September 2021 low

On Tuesday gold dropped out of its last couple of months’ trading range by slipping through the May and early July lows at $1,787 to $1,785 to a 10-month low made close to the September 2021 low at $1,722 around which it is expected to find support, at least in the short-term.

In line with several other commodities gold is now trading below the pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels as the US dollar continues to surge to multi-decade highs on safe-haven flows.

A drop and daily chart close below the $1,722 low would engage the August 2021 low at $1,684.

Minor resistance can now be found at the $1,754 December 2021 trough.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI finds interim support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s sharp drop from Tuesday’s $109.65 high took it close to its $92.92 to $92.45 support area from which it continues to bounce.

It consists of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), March and April lows.

Despite its bounce, oil is set for a weekly loss on growth concerns and that a global recession is expected to hurt energy demand. Since previous support creates resistance, due to inverse polarity, this can now be found between the June low and breached uptrend line at $101.22 to $103.15 as well as at the $103.39 1 July low.

A fall through and daily chart close below the $92.45 March low would mean that the price of WTI has left its March-to-July wide trading range and would probably push it lower towards the October 2021 high at $85.06.

Source: ProRealTime

High grade copper declines for fifth straight week

Heightened fears of a global recession and Covid-related uncertainties in top consumer China have led to the fifth straight week of losses in the price of copper which is seen by many as a gauge for the state of the economy.

Having said that, a swift recovery rally occurred on Thursday following reports that China would boost its infrastructure funding to support its economic recovery following the pandemic slump.

The copper front month futures contract has thus recovered off this week’s low at $3.2755 per pound and is currently testing its upper downtrend channel resistance line which is expected to soon be breached since a bullish Doji Hammer formation has been formed on Wednesday’s daily candlestick chart.

Provided that this week’s low at $3.2755 holds, the late June high at $3.8494 will be in focus. However, to get there, the 24 June low at $3.6414 will need to be exceeded. In the short-term it may act as minor resistance.

With regards to the bigger technical picture, if a drop and daily chart close below this week’s low were to be seen, the April 2019 high at $2.9971 would be targeted.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and lumber edge down in early trading

Commodity prices have come under pressure in early trading, reversing some of the gains made on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 11 July 2022 

Gold under pressure at start of a new week

Gold steadied itself last Friday after the sharp falls of earlier in the week, but while it tried to creep higher early this morning those small gains are being given back.

The price now looks set to head below its lows from the previous week, with a drop below $1728 opening the way to $1725 and then $1685, this last being the key support from March, April and August 2021.

A cautiously bullish view would require a move back above $1775.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent wobbles in early trading

The price had managed to bounce from the lows of last week, but has begun to weaken as the new week gets underway.

A slump back below $101 would suggest another test of $97.52, last week’s lows, and then on to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) which is currently $95.82.

Fears about weakening demand currently appear to have the upper hand, as recession concerns mount, but a recovery above $104, supported by forecasts of stronger demand, would help to reverse the bullish view.

However, this would then bring trendline resistance from the June high into play, towards $110.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber stalls after June rally

After the savage losses of the past three months the price has made firm headway since the June low. But it would still be too early to suggest that a bullish turn is at hand.

Sellers will be watching for a reversal below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as a sign of a more negative development, which might then open the way towards $6, and then to the June low at $5.23.

A recovery above $7.44 would mark further upside to come, potentially bringing the $8.07 level into view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, silver and oil prices drop on recession fears

The short-term outlook on gold, silver and oil is bearish as China is forced to re-introduce lockdowns due to new Covid-19 outbreaks and as global recession fears mount.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Forex Commodities WTI Gold Silver Petroleum

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 12 July 2022 

Gold slips to the $1,722 September 2021 low

Gold trades in ten-month lows and is fast approaching the September 2021 low at $1,722 per troy ounce around which it is expected to find support, at least in the short-term.

In line with several other commodities, gold is now trading well below the Russian invasion of Ukraine levels as the US dollar continues to surge to multi-decade highs on safe haven flows.

A drop and daily chart close below the $1,722 low would engage the August 2021 low at $1,684 and also the June 2020 and March 2021 lows at $1,678 to $1,671.

Minor resistance can now be found at the $1,753 to $1,754 last reaction high on the daily chart last Friday and the December 2021 trough.

Source: ProRealTime

Silver weighs on major support at its February 2020 pre-pandemic high

The price of silver is in the process of falling for its seventh consecutive week with the February 2020 pre-pandemic high at $18.95 per troy ounce being revisited as the US dollar trades in multi-decade highs on safe haven flows. It represents key support.

If it were to give way, the next downside target for silver would be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 to 2021 bull market and the June 2020 high at $18.48 to $18.39.

The 1 July low, together with the last reaction high on the daily chart – where a candle’s highest point is above that to its left and to its right – offer immediate resistance at $19.38 to $19.48 ahead of the minor psychological $20 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI consolidates below resistance

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil’s sharp drop from its 5 July $109.65 per barrel high took it to last week’s low at $93.33, close to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $93.18 and the March and April lows at $92.69 to $92.45, before recovering to last week’s high at $103.00.

It was the previous support line which became a resistance line and stalled the rise. Since then, oil has slipped again on fresh Covid-19 curbs in China and mounting worries of a global economic slowdown weighing on the commodity.

Yesterday’s low at $98.65 may be retested, below which major support remains to be seen at $93.18 to $92.45.

Minor resistance sits at the June low at $101.22, at last week’s $103.00 high. Further resistance comes along the breached uptrend line and 1 July low at $103.39 to $103.45.

A fall through and daily chart close below the $92.45 March low would mean that the price of WTI has left its March-to-July wide trading range and would probably push it lower towards the October 2021 high at $85.06.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold awaits US CPI figures, as oil and wheat struggle to move higher

Ahead of US inflation data, gold prices have steadied, while both oil and wheat are trying to make a move higher.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 13 July 2022 

Gold calm ahead of US CPI

Unsurprisingly, gold has been unable to make much headway ahead of what is expected to be another strong CPI reading in the US. The dollar continues to be the driver here, with no sign of the greenback’s new strength abating yet.

The price continues to sit right on the September 2021 low around $1723, but a move below here opens the way to the March and August 2021 low at $1685.

Last week’s small bounce found resistance at $1750, so this needs to be recovered if a short-term bullish view is to develop.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI returns to 200-day SMA

The downward move in oil prices continued yesterday, as the price of WTI dropped back below $100 once again, and returned to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in months.

Concerns that a global recession will do to demand what high prices have yet to achieve prompted the falls, with the stronger dollar adding to the push.

The price has recovered from below the 200-day SMA in early trading for now, but the clear bearish pressure points towards additional declines. The next big support area could be around $83.80, a level not seen since January.

A recovery above $100 would then target trendline resistance from the June highs, potentially towards $103.

Source: ProRealTime

Wheat edges up

After two days of losses that reversed the bounce of last week, wheat prices have begun to stabilise this morning. It looks like the supply situation is more plentiful than many expected, which has brought the rising trend to an end.

Additional declines below last week’s low at $7.88 would mark a clear bearish development, opening the way down towards the January lows at $7.48.

Buyers will want to see a recovery above $9 and the 200-day SMA ($9.14) that will suggest that at least a short-term low is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude, and lumber prices head lower as dollar strength dents sentiment

Gold, Brent crude, and lumber lose ground as the dollar puts downward pressure on commodities.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Forex Commodities Price Lumber Gold Market sentiment

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 14 July 2022 

Gold on the back foot this morning

Gold has seen a fresh bout of selling over the course of this morning, with the precious metal weakening in the wake of yesterday’s US consumer price index (CPI) reading.

While gold initially rose in the wake of the 9.1% inflation reading, we have seen US dollar strength once again come to dominate here. With that in mind, further short-term weakness looks likely to drive price back down towards the critical $1676 support level.

From a wider perspective, that $1676 threshold is going to be key in determining how long this sell-off lasts. Until then, it is a case of watching for the continued creation of lower highs to confirm that this short-term downtrend continues.

As such, a push back up through the recent $1752 level would be required to signal a potential upwards move towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Source: ProRealTime

Brent falls back into key support

Brent crude has been hit hard of late, with price falling into the lowest level in almost four months yesterday.

The trend seen over the course of the past month is one of lower highs and lower lows, signalling the expectation that we see further downside to come.

With the $97.41-95.59 support zone currently being challenged, the ability to pass through those levels will be key in continuing this trend.

To the upside, it is worthwhile noting that each previous retracement was roughly 50-61.8% in size, highlighting the potential for a move towards $102 if we do see another retracement from here.

However, any such upside move would be deemed a precursor to further weakness unless we see price break up through the $106.25 swing-high to bring about a more bullish outlook.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber looking more constructive as bullish pattern takes shape

Lumber has been showing signs of a resurgence of late, with price attempting to recover after a three-month decline from March to June.

What is evident over the course of the past two years is that lumber has provided us with great trending periods to trade within. On the four-hour chart, we can see how price has broken up through the $714.10 level to bring a more positive view.

Thus far, this week has brought downside for lumber as it pulls back from the 200-SMA indicator. However, that looks like a retracement, with price respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci level thus far.

With the stochastic falling back towards oversold territory, it looks likely that we will see the bulls come back into play soon enough. As such, bullish positions are favoured for lumber, with a decline through the $609.68 level required to negate that view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Natural gas rallies, but gold and oil prices remain under pressure

The stronger dollar continues to hobble gold and oil, but expectations of a supply crunch in Europe have driven gains for natural gas.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 15 July 2022 

Gold heads towards new lows for the year

The dollar found renewed strength yesterday off the back of the CPI reading earlier in the week, prompting fresh losses for commodity prices. Expectations remain high for another 75 bps or even 100 bps rate rise for the US at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The price dropped below the $1722 level yesterday, and has continued to fall in early trading this morning. Further declines target $1685 and then $1666. The former of these two has been big support since March and April 2021.

As was the case earlier in the week, a move above $1750 might suggest that a short-term low is in place.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI battling to hold 200-day SMA

US crude prices dipped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday for the first time this year. A stronger dollar continues to put pressure on commodity prices, and the current rout has put the uptrend in oil prices under strain.

Renewed falls below the 200-day SMA target $83.80 and then $76.47, should the price be able to drop below the 200-day SMA once more.

On the flipside, buyers will be relieved that the 200-day is holding for now, and perhaps a move back to $100 can develop from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas rebounds from June low

The recovery in natural gas has been driven by the temporary shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for annual maintenance, but also by the fear that Moscow will use the maintenance as an excuse to keep Europe cut off from Russian gas supplies.

The price has moved from below the 200-day SMA back to the 100-day. The question now is whether the price can sustain this momentum and move on towards the 50-day SMA (currently 7484). At present it still risks creating a lower high, given the scale of the drop back from the June high.

Sellers will be looking for a reversal back to the 200-day SMA that restores the bearish outlook and sets the price up for additional declines.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude, and copper prices at risk of bearish turn after recent resurgence

Gold, Brent crude, and high grade copper regain lost ground, but bearish trends point towards a potential move lower coming back into play.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 18 July 2022 

Gold trading within reach of critical support level

Gold is trying to find some stability this morning, coming off the back of yet another week of significant declines for the precious metal.

Down below, we need to be aware of the existence of the $1676 support level, below which we are looking at a more dramatic period of downside for gold. As long as price remains above that level, there is a real potential for a rebound to ensure price remains within the range seen over the past two years.

The four-hour chart highlights how we are seeing price move higher this morning, although the intraday downtrend remains in play for now.

To the upside, we do need to watch out for whether price can push up through the $1745 swing-high. As long as we remain below that level, there is a risk price rolls over to continue this bearish pattern.

However, we would be looking through a more bullish lens if we do finally manage to break out of this trend of lower highs by climbing through the $1745 level.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude on the rise, but bearish trend looks likely to challenge the bulls

Brent crude has enjoyed a positive end to the week just gone, with price climbing back above the $100 mark.

This flies in the face of the bearish trend that has been dominating over the course of the past month. However, that bearish intraday trend does still remain intact for now, with the pattern of lower highs and lower lows in place unless price breaks up through the $106.25 swing-high established on Friday 8 July.

The gains seen coming into this morning thus provides a potential shorting opportunity given the trend in play. The 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level ($101.08) is currently being taken out, with the 76.4% ($103.05) worth watching as a potential area for the bears to come back into play.

A decline back out of overbought on the stochastic would provide another sell signal. That bearish view holds unless we see price overcome the $106.25 swing-high.

Source: ProRealTime

High grade copper rallies into confluence of resistance

If copper is a bellweather for global economic health, the outlook has clearly taken a turn for the worse over the course of the past six weeks.

Since the beginning of June, we have seen price collapse by 28%, despite the gains seen since Friday. That rebound brings price back into a confluence of horizontal and trendline resistance.

With that in mind, the gains we are seeing should soon be challenged around the $3.3154 level. With the stochastic pushing up into overbought territory for just the third time in the past six weeks, there is a chance we are seeing a good selling opportunity come into play once again.

As such, watch out for a reversal back down through the 80 threshold as a sell signal for copper. A break up through $3.5803 would point towards a bullish reversal coming into play.

Source: ProRealTime