Are the markets really random?

[Davor]

Out of my long-term experience (in short-term FX) markets are not only random but much worse. If you think your statistical chances are 50/50 think twice. One will rarely have more than two winners in a row but will regularly have 5, 10 or even 15+ losses in a row. Go figure.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Davor

[THT]

17 hours ago, Davor said:

Out of my long-term experience (in short-term FX) markets are not only random but much worse. If you think your statistical chances are 50/50 think twice. One will rarely have more than two winners in a row but will regularly have 5, 10 or even 15+ losses in a row. Go figure.

That all depends on your method of trading/Investing - the markets allow you to seriously slant the odds in your favour, not the markets, the distribution of losers and winners is of course ad-hoc, but as long as the expectancy is on a traders side, they will win and you get all of those figures by analysing hundreds of trades

That being said, 95% of the methods out there don't actually work which doesn't help the statistical side

The fractal nature of TIME gives the impression of randomness, but the markets aren't random - I've done enough research over the past 20 years to have proven that to myself

All I show on here are tiny little snippets, there'll be 1 person in 100,000 that will get it and the light bulb moment, the rest 99,999 will assume their own belief system and wonder why they are continually losing

THT

[THT]

There's only so many times you can show a method............

The GANN BOX when properly drawn = PLANETARY GEOMETRIC ACTION = The HARMONICS of that BOX WILL 100% guaranteed, work at some point in the WEEKS or MONTHS that follow - This is 100% GUARANTEED, a CERTAINTY

Do NOT look for EXACTNESS - It rarely happens and you will be too focused on that, that you will miss perfectly good (and profitable) trades - use the Gann box as a guide and IF something happens off an angle, act on it with a plan

Remember the chart below is a WEEKLY chart, Notice how the bottom angle supporting the market inside the box, then when price moved out of the box, it did it again! - You'd extend the angles DOWNWARDS too as they can be resistance, but if it blasts straight through, then the angle (planetary angle) ain't "active!

When WD GANN traded, he bought AGAINST the angle with a big stop underneath  - I've found over the years that having an order sat dead on the line, rarely fills, because price hits the angle and then moves fast off it, so although technically you can buy the exact low often, you never get filled, so you have to come up with some sort of strategy to get in as close to the touch point as possible

I haven't even worked out the planets causing this - All I did was drew the box, noticed the fits and GUESSTIMATED a bottom in OCT'22 based off the expected OCT'22 SP500 low - 1 reason for this (not the main reason) is that OCTOBER is a "hot" month for the stockmarket turns historically, another reason is years of the DECADE with a 2 or 3 in them, are often LOW points (see there's LOTS of things happening in the markets, that you may not be aware of)

If all you ever got was a few of these turns a year, you'd be rich and massively beat the market - works on ANY market, ANY time-frame and ANY one can do it

Here's another separate market on a MONTHLY time-frame

This ALL becomes much easier to accept and understand if you accept that a planet or planets control price action and as EACH market has varying planets that control them, then it is fair to say that the vibratory effects of those planets within big plunges or rises, will reverberate into the future to some effect - and that IS exactly what happens

In the chart above, its not perfect, but you can see the effect

If you can't bring yourself to believe that planets control things, then just think (and this is how WD Gann marketed it to the masses) of it as a mathematical grid/box system, which is exactly what it is (created by the planets!) 

You should be questioning the turns NOT touched by these angles - the answer to that is its far too complex for me to start to explain, but other "things" are in play - its not all about the Gann box, the Gann box gives you excellent trades after the box has formed, as shown throughout this thread

If you want to know the "How & Why" of the markets, then you HAVE no choice but to explore the planetary side of things and I'm afraid that this does verge on the the old Astrology area - I'm not a great Astrology person and all I personally do is use planetary positions and maths based calculations - no "this means that" as that is starting to guess things and we don't trade on guesses, you don't have to, people can easily get by just having a great trading method and system.

Have a Wonderful Christmas and New Year 

From the THT household

[THT]

This is what the SP500 has been working to...............................................

Markets don't seem that random to me!

Notice the "Square out" - If you have read Gann, this is EXACTLY what he meant by squaring a LOW - The PLANET has caused the reversal by hitting its original STARTING point

I realise that the above can be a bit testing for people to stomach - but I'm not the one being chewed up and spat out by market movement/action! If you are being killed by the markets, then its BECUASE you are operating against/opposite to the order and flow that the market works to

If you've read Gann without looking at planets, it just won't that much sense and it will be hit and miss - once you combine planets and gann, it ALL starts to make sense

Its also not as simple as just replicating the above, as this will not work properly going forward (There's other ways to draw planetary trendlines too and at some point they will be more active than the above - so you can't solely rely on the above all the time!) 

Then using some of the methods I showed in previous charts in this thread...........................

I copied some of those trendlines and moved to significant highs/lows and you can SEE the result

WD Gann used to say things like "You need to watch for a change of trend 45,90,180,240,270 & 360 days, weeks, months"

SATURN moves about 1 degree per MONTH, 12 per year etc until it completes a full 360 degrees in approx 30 years - not too taxing - So now we need to think is anything big due in 2024?

In this next chart, all I've done is look FORWARD from the BIG & MAJOR turning points for180 months (780 weeks) - some of these cycles I've continued the repeating time cycle which would then account for 360 degrees or a full cycle of SATURN - I highly doubt even the most hardened sceptic could deny there's a lot of hits!

So from the 2009 LOW we have a 180 month (15 year 180 degs) 780 week Saturn cycle landing in 2024 - which could or could not be significant - Also to be absolutely precise you would calculate the EXACT 180 degs from Saturn's position on March 6th 2009 - This is a straight-forward GANN cycle and as its a 180 deg cycle, Gann would expect it to be a HIGH

If you run a 45 MONTH from the 2020 low = TODAY

As you can tell, LOTS of things are hitting the markets at various times, from the PAST - most people won't look back more than a few months! and expect to be in the 5% that win in the markets, then blame everyone but themselves when it all goes Pete Tong

Have a great Christmas and New Year

THT

 

 

[phillo]

[MongiIG]

Thanks for sharing @THT and @phillo

 

 

 

 

Happy Holidays and a great new year!

[THT]

The markets as we can see are purely MATHEMATICAL and structured - This is why when you apply maths based tools such as trendlines, pitchforks, etc you often get "hits"

The key is translating points on those lines to tradable trade opportunities, which requires some skill on your behalf

Here's the SP500 Index, in LOG scale, with a simple Gann Angles from the 82 low to the 00 high, then a simple COPY of the main 1 x 1 (pink) gann angle from notable LOWS and you can easily see why WD Gann said "All major turning points are related to one another mathematically" 

ALL you need to know are WHEN in TIME the big turns turn, then FOLLOW the TREND

Hope you have a great 2024

THT

[DanielBrewton]

On 13/07/2023 at 14:17, THT said:

Listen trading is hard - 95% of people who try fail and would be best just buying and holding, but all those 95% lot, think that they are in the 5% bit!

Couldn't agree more. When someone tries and tells me his sad story of his losing streak. I usually counter it with "What If you had done exactly opposite of what you actually did?" 

The thing is its hard to keep cool temperament when things are getting slapped left and right.

[Smokehead]

Greetings  ,

I reckon they are random . 100 % . Over a period of time its possible to draw all sorts of various lines ( Gann and Fibs come to mind ) and trend lines . Then try to reach some conclusion based on past data ( bit like driving a car forward while looking at rear view mirror ) is tricky . 

kind regards,

Anil.

[THT]

On 21/01/2024 at 14:44, Smokehead said:

Greetings  ,

I reckon they are random . 100 % . Over a period of time its possible to draw all sorts of various lines ( Gann and Fibs come to mind ) and trend lines . Then try to reach some conclusion based on past data ( bit like driving a car forward while looking at rear view mirror ) is tricky . 

kind regards,

Anil.

Hi Anil,

I get the trendlines thing as it can be argued, I've said it myself over time, but not when you use properly scaled Gann angles, the number of times the 1 x 1 catches key turns is staggering - the problem is most charting platforms, can't and don't scale correctly - as Gann said, you can trade off the 1 x 1 when its properly scaled and make a killing

The real key to this is the TIME aspect - repeating cycles just keep on hitting over and over

If the markets were random, then we'd have much more wild swings, without the ever expanding patterns being created

I created this thread, not as a question, but as a rhetorical question, having spent the past 14 years researching the markets - I only post to get that 1 in 100,000 person to think aha and do some research, the other 99,999 won't bother and dismiss out of hand without a flicker of research and what I post is not everything I know or have on my charts, its what I choose to show

Take this Gann angle for example, that was on my chart from 2010 - lucky hits?

 

This excerpt is a page from Bayers book written in the 1900's and the markets still follow the pattern to this day!

 

Looks familiar.................

If you look at this thread or my Time Cycle thread, find the RED composite Index line chart of the DJIA that in itself proves the markets can't be random, I don't show the next 100 years, but you can guesstimate the pattern and whatnot

THT

[THT]

If you had this on your charts back in 2018 to 2020 & 2021 - you KNEW  what to look out for

Create the ORIGINAL Gann angle based on PLANETS trend lines, then apply other Gann angle calcs and move around the chart

Obviously this is not the complete picture - Just an explanation to you for what the markets are really doing - you might think they are random and chaotic, but we can see they are anything but

PS - an EXACT hit = that planet/pairing are what CAUSED the reversal, if it ain't an EXACT hit, it means something else (another planet/pairing) CAUSED the reversal

Posting once per month now

THT

[TheGuru12]

Hello everyone,

I've been away for a bit, but I recently came across a mention of Gann Angles and wanted to share some insights. The concept is intriguing: if the angle surpasses 45 degrees, it indicates a sustained rally in one direction or the other, especially when considering the negative 45-degree angles. I've been experimenting with the IG Index API to explore this idea further. From what I've observed, the angles tend to lean sharply upwards following a significant downtrend, and the reverse is true for uptrends. While my approach isn't identical to Gann's original method, I'm essentially applying its foundational principles to my analysis.

 

[TheGuru12]

1 minute ago, TheGuru12 said:

Hello everyone,

I've been away for a bit, but I recently came across a mention of Gann Angles and wanted to share some insights. The concept is intriguing: if the angle surpasses 45 degrees, it indicates a sustained rally in one direction or the other, especially when considering the negative 45-degree angles. I've been experimenting with the IG Index API to explore this idea further. From what I've observed, the angles tend to lean sharply upwards following a significant downtrend, and the reverse is true for uptrends. While my approach isn't identical to Gann's original method, I'm essentially applying its foundational principles to my analysis.

 

Code for the above here.

https://github.com/tg12/2024-trading-automation-scripts/blob/main/angle_variation.py

[THT]

The recent correction Is the 15 Year cycle from the 2009 LOW - told you about that back in FEBRUARY - big long term cycles don't work out to the day, they have a period of grace either side of the perfect date, which is what has happened

I've not published this anywhere else - I've mentioned it, but people won't work it out

Blue line is the WEEKLY SP500 Index

RED line is the composite Index - past, present and FUTURE

So far since 2009 HIGHLY ACCURATE, not 100%, but very close (just missed the covid crash) 

We have these SP500 cycles, a big planetary cycle due in Oct 2025, the "Beast" cycle due in 2026 and the WAR cycle which is valid now through to 2028 too

This is the BIGGEST and LONGEST DOWN cycle in the cycle sequence since 2009 - It isn't going to be pretty, but it shouldn't be too bad either, remember you CAN and DO have rallies in the DOWN cycle parts  - the RED line is a Composite summation of all the cycles seen at the bottom of the chart - Price "should" within reason follow that red line (NOT price levels, just presumed price DIRECTION)

The next few years will sort out the men from the boys

Remember the ULTRA big overall cycle is UP from 2016 to 2034 - so there is not going to be any massive doomsday disaster bear market, but it won't be a walk in the park either

Lets see if the SP500 follows the cycle path or not

[THT]

How many of you caught this off my previous posts?  I'm willing to bet no one

Retracement down to both the 70.7% (SQUARE) retracement level AND the 75% level Extended Gann Box angle with the Indicators oversold! Come on it ain't hard

Then you drop to a lower time-frame for entry! - You do NOT blindly buy the angle or the ret level, let the retail crowd buy those - you drop down to an Intra-day time-frame etc

PS - This is what GANN was doing over 100 years ago - this is NOT new

Edited April 23 by THT

[mf2]

Which software is this?