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gold market discussion


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  • 2 weeks later...
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Yes, money coming out of crypto must go somewhere and that's not going to be the US dollar just yet. The other nice thing from the technical stand point is the lack of obstruction above monthly resistance for some distance up the chart which tends to ease passage all else being equal.

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I don't see Bitcoin as a safe-haven as eventually, it will be superseded.  Better computers, better algorithms - it becomes worthless.  It is no better than a fiat currency in my opinion, only perhaps more practical.  

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Au moment, 1:36pm AEST (GMT+10) Gold is up $5.00, Bitcoin $130.00 and Ether $25 : about 3.3%, 1.68% and 5% gains respectively.  

 

No news, rumours of war, and if anything the $AUD the stronger FX mover, 200pips (that I can see).  

 

Store of value v short term war insurance - might be more than one discussion here.  

 

Sharia schmaria - but it isn't backed by debt I guess.... Until it no longer becomes what it started to be.

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The gold charts shows gold retreating from long term resistance on Wednesday and continuing down yesterday but the bars are not special.

 

The bitcoin chart is different, whether the initial move can be credited to the Russia thing, or Muslims, or billionaires or traders short squeezing who knows but the spike was created by price taking out a series of prior highs and was pure price action. Once the short stops just above 7000 were taken out the buyers looked to target the next high at 7200 and then at 7540. The 1 minute chart shows the hesitation at each level before new buyers piled in each time.

 

Be interesting today if we see a bit of FOMO regret and a retest of 7500.

 

edited to add charts, 

 

Spot Gold_20180413_06.28.pngBitcoin (USD)_20180413_06.43.pngBitcoin (USD)_20180413_06.42.png

 

  

 

 

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Guest PandaFace

Dollar basket at its month low nearly so this is giving strength to gold prices. 

Likely to continue though? I don’t know... that would be a strong supporting trend line to break you know.

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China, India and Russia are great gold buyers/hoarders and the creeping escalation of the 'Trump trade war' will likely fuel the gold bounce up off long term trendline support for the near term and that's about as far as anyone can see at the moment. 

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Guest PandaFace

Casey that’s a great article. Very very interesting and a bit of that investigative journalism sort of thing going on. 

The implcations if China are looking to control gold prices is huge, especially if the speculation on them hoarding for the last twenty years is correct...

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Great piece - nothing like a good bit of manipulation in the macro markets. Lets be honest we are kidding ourselves if all the major global players aren't trying to manipulate the markets.

European and western guys just call it 'quantitative easing' though. :D:D

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  • JamesIG changed the title to gold market discussion
  • 4 weeks later...

This is a follow up article to the one posted above (11 July).

No Bottom in Gold until Trade War Ends - David Brady (08/08/2018)

 "I keep getting the same arguments trying to undermine the existence of a Chinese peg for Gold in yuan terms, despite having clearly provided the rationale for why the Chinese would enforce such a peg and the simple math for why it is now almost exclusively driving the Gold price. Yet people continue to question its existence".

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/no-bottom-in-gold-until-trade-war-ends.html

gold1.PNG.585a6c6950d100c70a34c985f50c916b.PNG

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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

This is a follow up article to the one posted above (11 July).

No Bottom in Gold until Trade War Ends - David Brady (08/08/2018)

 "I keep getting the same arguments trying to undermine the existence of a Chinese peg for Gold in yuan terms, despite having clearly provided the rationale for why the Chinese would enforce such a peg and the simple math for why it is now almost exclusively driving the Gold price. Yet people continue to question its existence".

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/no-bottom-in-gold-until-trade-war-ends.html

interesting take really - especially at these1200 levels you can't help but look back at the chart and see the support and a number of good bounces and think we're going to be looking at a reversal. I put in a little in an ETF when we hit 1205 but now I'm not so sure... :(

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