gold market discussion

[Caseynotes]

'Gold has had it's best year (so far) since 2010'. Interesting article on gold and comparisons with bitcoin.

 

Weekly chart (note long-term increasing volume.

 

https://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/economy/boring-bullion-vs-crazy-crypto/

 

[Caseynotes]

Gold had a big down day yesterday tagging support at 1260, currently not finding many buyers here. A break of 1260 could signal a big move down.

As   points out below, millennials definitely prefer bitcoin. 

 

[Caseynotes]

Gold stalls at prior support turned resistance. Anticipation of the passing of Trumps tax reform bill rumoured early next week, if fails could shake a number of markets.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Gold has had a good run lately but is closing in on a big resistance level, without major event risk most likely to consolidate soon. 

[Caseynotes]

The monthly chart shows gold is well poised for a breakout after the last two strong months.

 

Edited to include daily chart.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Yes, money coming out of crypto must go somewhere and that's not going to be the US dollar just yet. The other nice thing from the technical stand point is the lack of obstruction above monthly resistance for some distance up the chart which tends to ease passage all else being equal.

[Caseynotes]

Interesting gold chart posted on twitter this morning by Gold Report.

 

[Caseynotes]

The monthly chart has the look of just needing one decent sized geo/politcal event to really get it going.

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting geopolitical risk chart from Saxo, The 12 month average continues to rise.

 

[Caseynotes]

Remember gold has been waiting for an excuse to jump up above 1369 for 3 months now. World War III just might do it.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

But can bitcoin survive an electromagnetic pulse  ah?  Gold can :smileywink:

[Guest Zero]

I don't see Bitcoin as a safe-haven as eventually, it will be superseded.  Better computers, better algorithms - it becomes worthless.  It is no better than a fiat currency in my opinion, only perhaps more practical.  

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin spiked on no news in a 1 hour bar (12 midday) spike, Nic Dukes called it right (as was posted in the bitcoin thread), it was a concerted short squeeze and nothing to do with geopolitical events.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currencies-bitcoin/bitcoin-price-jumps-to-two-week-high-leads-broad-crypto-surge-idUSKBN1HJ1YL

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

The spike today lasted just 30 minutes, it was intensive buying by people who had been waiting to pounce for over 3 weeks, the ruling you refer to was released on Tuesday, it was not the cause of the brief sudden spike today.   

[Guest Zero]

Au moment, 1:36pm AEST (GMT+10) Gold is up $5.00, Bitcoin $130.00 and Ether $25 : about 3.3%, 1.68% and 5% gains respectively.  

 

No news, rumours of war, and if anything the $AUD the stronger FX mover, 200pips (that I can see).  

 

Store of value v short term war insurance - might be more than one discussion here.  

 

Sharia schmaria - but it isn't backed by debt I guess.... Until it no longer becomes what it started to be.

[Caseynotes]

The gold charts shows gold retreating from long term resistance on Wednesday and continuing down yesterday but the bars are not special.

 

The bitcoin chart is different, whether the initial move can be credited to the Russia thing, or Muslims, or billionaires or traders short squeezing who knows but the spike was created by price taking out a series of prior highs and was pure price action. Once the short stops just above 7000 were taken out the buyers looked to target the next high at 7200 and then at 7540. The 1 minute chart shows the hesitation at each level before new buyers piled in each time.

 

Be interesting today if we see a bit of FOMO regret and a retest of 7500.

 

edited to add charts, 

 

 

  

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting info graphic on current and future uses of gold.

 

https://www.gold.org/about-gold/facts-about-gold/properties-of-gold

 

 

[JamesIG]

---

 wrote:

Interesting info graphic on current and future uses of gold.

 

https://www.gold.org/about-gold/facts-about-gold/properties-of-gold

 

 

---

Thats cool! 

[Caseynotes]

Gold coming on to a crucial support level (as mentioned in another thread by @TrendFollower), converging onto horizontal and trendline support at around 1236 with a MACD crossover on the monthly chart.

Monthly and Daily Chart.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Good bounce up off trendline and prior low support on the weekly candle. Weekly chart.

[Guest PandaFace]

Dollar basket at its month low nearly so this is giving strength to gold prices. 

Likely to continue though? I don’t know... that would be a strong supporting trend line to break you know.

[Caseynotes]

That last weekly candle really stood out which was why I posted it yesterday evening and there seems to be strong  continuation for the bounce today. The start of the trendline dates back to the end of 2015 and it's looking pretty solid.

[Caseynotes]

Chris B makes long gold the 'IG trade of the week'. See link and vid.

 

[Caseynotes]

China, India and Russia are great gold buyers/hoarders and the creeping escalation of the 'Trump trade war' will likely fuel the gold bounce up off long term trendline support for the near term and that's about as far as anyone can see at the moment. 

[Caseynotes]

Have you noticed the lack of safe haven drive in the gold market lately, could this be the reason?

Very interesting article from yesterday by Sprott Money.

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/has-the-pboc-taken-control-of-the-gold-market.html

[Guest PandaFace]

Casey that’s a great article. Very very interesting and a bit of that investigative journalism sort of thing going on. 

The implcations if China are looking to control gold prices is huge, especially if the speculation on them hoarding for the last twenty years is correct...

[Caseynotes]

It's all a bit chilling isn't, a well put together piece drawing together lots of strands from different aspects and sources. Those charts are a bit of an eye opener.

[247trader]

Great piece - nothing like a good bit of manipulation in the macro markets. Lets be honest we are kidding ourselves if all the major global players aren't trying to manipulate the markets.

European and western guys just call it 'quantitative easing' though.

[Caseynotes]

This is a follow up article to the one posted above (11 July).

No Bottom in Gold until Trade War Ends - David Brady (08/08/2018)

 "I keep getting the same arguments trying to undermine the existence of a Chinese peg for Gold in yuan terms, despite having clearly provided the rationale for why the Chinese would enforce such a peg and the simple math for why it is now almost exclusively driving the Gold price. Yet people continue to question its existence".

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/no-bottom-in-gold-until-trade-war-ends.html

[247trader]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

This is a follow up article to the one posted above (11 July).

No Bottom in Gold until Trade War Ends - David Brady (08/08/2018)

 "I keep getting the same arguments trying to undermine the existence of a Chinese peg for Gold in yuan terms, despite having clearly provided the rationale for why the Chinese would enforce such a peg and the simple math for why it is now almost exclusively driving the Gold price. Yet people continue to question its existence".

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/no-bottom-in-gold-until-trade-war-ends.html

interesting take really - especially at these1200 levels you can't help but look back at the chart and see the support and a number of good bounces and think we're going to be looking at a reversal. I put in a little in an ETF when we hit 1205 but now I'm not so sure...