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Dax & Dow


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On 11/10/2019 at 12:22, T19 said:

I am net short and pessimistic on DOW. In my opinion, this rally should be seen as an opportunity to short DOW .

 

Could turn out that way but difficult to know with any degree of certainty how the trade talks will pan out, seems to be real progress this time round. Retail have been increasingly short all week as price has continued to rise.

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Dax on a bit of a round trip taking off to visit R1 then back down to resistance turned support 12817 after a slight miss on the Ger PMIs. Should steady now and wait for Draghi's last ECB rate decision and presser, not likely to drop a bomb for Lagarde who doesn't mind a bit of QE herself. 

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Dax and Dow nudging resistance coming up to the London open, will often check support initially before attempting to push higher.

Weekly charts below and it's been a strong month for Dax as Dow keeps looking for an excuse to break the high.

The big day is Wednesday with the FOMC rate decision and Apple and FB earnings report. 

H1 and weekly charts;

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Dax pushing up to the pivot on the European open, Dow holding just below the pivot. Likely to be fairly lite while waiting for the big drivers (FOMC and Earnings) this evening. If we see a Dow capture of the pivot could see follow up and an attempt at yesterday's high around R1 but a check of support to see how firm the base is seems more likely.

H1 charts;

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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Donald Trump obviously not happy with yesterday's Fed decision as 'trade worries resurface' today ....

It was China expressing doubt that a trade deal would ever be reached with Trump in the White House and that they want all tariffs removed before new talks but that won't happen, US economy is doing well while China's production figure continue down. 

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17 hours ago, dmedin said:

DAX looks like it is going in for a pullback.

Pullback maybe but what is a pullback, it's profit taking with a countertrend attempt to reverse that peters out. Those three candles don't look like that, maybe some profit taking on the first red but the second pushed down hard and then was bought straight back up and the same on the third. The long wicks and small bodies would indicate to me buyer strength rather than seller strength. So it looks more like profit taking and a buyer pause followed by 2 attempts to reverse both of which ran into strong buying.

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Dow tagged it's ATH overnight (= monthly chart resistance level purple) and has since just pulled back slightly, Dax is following. Good news data last week shows the US economy remains strong with mostly good earnings reported as well as emerging markets outlook improving bodes well for Dow, and where the Dow leads others tend to follow.

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