Dax & Dow

[dmedin]

Looks like we are having a nice little pullback today, giving a good opportunity to buy back in next week hopefully.

[AndrewS]

Well I will take a close look at how prices react to this week's and month's range. There are some interesting candlesticks and I think strong support is about 5% away for some of these indices.

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by AndrewS

[AndrewS]

 

A partial cure for bias.

[dmedin]

IG has a video up of 'Trader Noble' saying how he's selling the indices. 

Surely it's better to wait and see if there is a pullback/retrace followed by another rally?  Each to their own.  And I'm not an expert

[AndrewS]

pullback/retrace and rally

 

 

[AndrewS]

That was the Nikkei 1 hour upside down and the Dax has been in sync with it the last three weeks.

[Caseynotes]

19 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

That was the Nikkei 1 hour upside down and the Dax has been in sync with it the last three weeks.

is that mt5?

[AndrewS]

MT4 and Microsoft Paint.

[Caseynotes]

53 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

MT4 and Microsoft Paint.

what threw me was misreading Nike for Nikkei and thinking you had a stock chart up 🙄.

Interesting correlation though.

[AndrewS]

Caseynotes, I see what you mean about going down to the 1m charts. Small Bearish engulfing candle on the Dow and Dax on the 1hr candle.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

yes, you will see the signs of reversal down there before the larger scale charts but it's easy to get lost as to where you are in the bigger picture so I will have a H1 chart running as well so I know when and where to look for breakout or reversals on the smaller scale charts.

[Caseynotes]

Dow reaching up towards the daily pivot point having found support at the old weekly chart resistance level 27313 (Red) and now looking to bounce up off the old monthly chart resistance level 27401 (Purple).

Dax arrived at recent resistance after a strong 8am bull candle.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dow up on the US open and following the US non-manu PMI which still points to expansion though down slightly on the expectation, 53.9 v 54.5.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Nice reach down to tag and confirm support at the daily pivot for Dax to start the day.

H1 charts;

[dmedin]

Looks like DJIA is about to do another big ploppy doo-doo

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Looks like DJIA is about to do another big ploppy doo-doo

Looks like schmoks like.

So at the start of the day look at yesterday's daily candle, it can only be either a bull or bear or a pause candle. Assume today's candle will be the same (bull or bear, forget pause), so expect a continuation candle.

Watch the daily pivot throughout the day, he who controls the pivot controls intra-day direction. So if yesterday's daily candle was a bull then so long as today's price action remains above the pivot then expect continuation upward.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dow reaching for R1 and yesterday's high 27770 while Dax trying to retake the pivot.

H1 charts;

[dmedin]

I've lost a **** ton recently, radically changing my tactics before I sink for good.  😺🐮

[Caseynotes]

 

13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

radically changing my tactics before I sink for good.  😺🐮

good, go back to basics. Decide on near term direction, look for a reasonable pullback set up to reverse back and continue with trend and enter with a simple bracket order of a tight stop loss and reasonable target and just keep chipping away.

[dmedin]

@Caseynotes Thank you!

[dmedin]

266k 🥳

[Caseynotes]

yes, not just the nfp figure but all 3 main headline figures;

[dmedin]

But, but, but!  Good figures may mean another rate cut is less likely 😿

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-voters/fed-voters-a-less-hawkish-bunch-in-2020-lowering-bar-for-u-s-rate-cut-idUKKBN1YA1B7

[AndrewS]

Dmedin, for me those Heikin-Ashi candlesticks on the intraday charts obscure the actual wicks and bodies too much. They do tell an interesting story on the daily charts.

[Caseynotes]

7 hours ago, AndrewS said:

Dmedin, for me those Heikin-Ashi candlesticks on the intraday charts obscure the actual wicks and bodies too much. They do tell an interesting story on the daily charts.

yes you do need to be a bit careful on HA charts and also make sure you keep an eye on the actual price line and remember the candle open has been averaged out. Another good alternative is Renko which also smooths price action making it a little easier to follow but unfortunately not available on the IG platform yet.

 

[dmedin]

I don't know anything about Renko yet.  They do look interesting - simpler.  Also remind me of point and figure a bit. 

 

[Caseynotes]

16 hours ago, dmedin said:

I don't know anything about Renko yet.  They do look interesting - simpler.  Also remind me of point and figure a bit. 

 

yes, with Renko you are changing from time based charts to price based and so remove a lot of noise and smooth out  the price action hopefully giving a clearer picture.

[Caseynotes]

Dax just backing after pushing through it's weekly chart resistance level (Red) and up to R1. Dow just forming a short time frame bull flag at 28265 which is it's new all time high.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dow currently breaking out into new highs;

[dmedin]

Zut alors🐮🐴🥳👍  Hope the results at 13:30 are good.  Can stay long for the rest of the year. 

Should have bought in at the start of the rally on boxing day last year.  Would have had an amazing 2019.