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Crude Oil (WTI)


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@Caseynotes I do like to look at 0 -50-100 % levels , they work so well on a lot of things. The 50% level can sometimes be identified as a "swap zone" where buyers & sellers battle for control ( can be seen by when price moves strongly in one direction , stops and reverses a bit before resuming the original trend) . Here's a BIG picture of crude oil showing some historic price zones

Capture cl.PNG

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Trump was tweeting about it when he got up today and seemed to give it an extra push though the Venezuelan oil industry has been so run down over the years I wondered if it really mattered to world production. I saw some figures go through a few days back, I'll see if I can find them.

If WTI can clear this resistance 58 is definitely on the cards. 


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strong day for oil at the moment from reuters

"OPEC said on Tuesday it had cut oil production steeply under a global supply deal, although it flagged headwinds confronting its efforts to prevent a glut this year including weaker demand and higher rival output.

In a monthly report, OPEC said its oil output fell almost 800,000 barrels per day in January to 30.81 million bpd. That is still slightly more than the expected 2019 demand for OPEC crude, which the producer group lowered to 30.59 million bpd.

Worried by a drop in oil prices and rising supplies, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia agreed in December to return to supply cuts. OPEC is lowering output by 800,000 bpd from Jan. 1."

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Guest backwardation

I'm about to be short squeezed on WTI.  Fell asleep before API numbers yesterday, after a week of full of bad trading decisions.  My short position will not force close until around $60.0 

Barring any geopolitical tension, do you think we can come back down to $57.2 (where I opened the short).  Or is this about to rise much more?  If I close it now I lose a significant amount of money (for me anyways).  Would you advise I deposit more money to keep the position alive in the hope that it comes back to 57.2 or close to it?  

@Caseynoteswould really appreciate your input. Also @elle if you would be so kind to chime in.

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I guess it's too late to say "never short crude" especially when the US & Iran are making noise !  Price in an upward channel short term  in my opinion.  Some overhead resistance. $60 has been a price @ which a lot of OPEC & others seem to want. 

Capture cr 1hr.PNG

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14 minutes ago, backwardation said:

@Caseynoteswould really appreciate your input. Also @elle if you would be so kind to chime in.

Yes the inventory short fall in the data yesterday cause a lot of surprise and a jump in price.

WTI has just reached an area of previous consolidation in March and May so may well pause here and consider it's options. Oil traders will probably want to look closely at the US GDP figures tomorrow and the G20 over the weekend before making any big bets so the possibility of a turn around remains. Your stop is in a reasonable position at 60 and if price were to overrun it up into clear space you really wouldn't want to remain short anyway.



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