THE GREAT BEAR IS UPON US

[Guest jay]

Here it is: my 2 bit on the great question? when will this bull market end?? DOW WILL TOP OUT AROUND 27830, NASDAQ COMP AROUND 8260 before the end of the year . That will be the top for a long long time- 20 years. funds will flow to china and the great transition of economic might will begin its final stages with chinese equity market in a secular bull phase 

[Mercury]

I agree with your overall assessment @jay, would be interested to know how you come to that.  When is another issue, no point in being right if one is too early or too late, of course exactly when to go Short is strictly a matter for individual methodology.

One thing that tends to be a harbinger of recession is retail.  Particularly with this market/economic cycle, which has been consumer debt driven probably like no other in history.  There have been a series of well documented retail collapses over the past year or so and prior to that the tell tale signs of multiple sales events as stock doesn't shift.  Recently there was a report of Burberry taking flack for destroying excess stock rather than sell at low costs to preserve their brand and only today we have had another 2 classics in my view as follows:

New Look set to close up to 100 UK stores in radical revamp

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46107834

I particularly "like" the following quotes 

Executive chairman Alistair McGeorge said retailers continued to face "significant headwinds and uncertainties, including Brexit". Brexit it seems is the cause of all woes...

"Clearly the wider retail environment remains challenging and we are not expecting that to change anytime soon. However, we are on the right track and continue to drive further efficiencies across the business," he said. At least he has the integrity not to blame it all on politics...

 

Primark blames weather for sliding sales

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46107833

LOL!  Apparently it was too cold then too hot...  Sounds like Network rail...  I really see trouble ahead when I read these apparent reasons for bad management.  I can't blame them, they are just gaming the system to keep the over inflated salaries and bonuses rolling in, but these kinds of headlines are warning bells for me of an imminent economic cycle reversal and an associated stock market reversal.

[Mercury]

So the Great Bear is upon us, of this I am personally convinced, but then again I was sure this was the case a few years ago...  It is possible to be right and wrong at the same time.  I saw signs of recession (or at least economic cycle overheating) back in 2015 and they have stayed with us but, in my opinion, central bank actions, rather than saving the economy, have staved off the inevitable for a few more years and ramped the market even further in a vain effort to bring about Gordon Brown's now infamous declaration that under "New Labour" there would be no return to "boom & bust".  So my timing was off last time but those who get caught out by not selling high will suffer greatly so I sold and converted to cash.

For traders is it a gold rush.  The chance to Short the biggest move we are likely to ever see, if it happens...  For investors it is a potential nightmare from which many will have insufficient time to recover as the eventual resumption of growth will be slow and plodding compared to the crash.  In the interests of fair disclosure for bias: I am, and have been for a few years, a perma-bear on stocks; I sold out all of my stock portfolio and moved my funds to money markets (as if I was about to retire) and am only trading now.

I am a techncials trader using a prescribed systems of big picture fundamentals (economics based), long time-frame price charts analysis, financial markets and commercial/industrial sentiment indicators and US based commitments of traders data to assess long term road map scenarios.  I then use short term time-frames to identify higher probability trading set ups with minimum loss potential exposure and if I can get in on a trend I switch to trend following, still using my analytical techniques.  Normally I tend to find several potential scenarios in play and usually at least 1 is contrary to the rest.  In the case of stocks I cannot find any scenario for much more left in the Central Bank Bull.  Interestingly there have been several pronouncements by City/Street analysts that there is still some more left in the Bull.  I find their arguments to be weak and full of bias, it is not in the interests of the big Financial firms to guide investors to the exit doors...  Only a handful of contrarians, taking a huge risk, are doing this.  I think the jobs data is full of poor quality jobs, gig economy, zero hours contracts, call it what you will.  I think traditional measures such as GDP are defunct.  I think the trend on economic data is down, as is corporate profits an definitely corporate turnover.  I think there are many signs of poor corporate actions, that are synonymous with market tops: excessive M&A; Share buybacks; dividend return focus that all drive me to conclude that corporate can't find a credible way to keep growing via organic investment.

 

The following article is from one of the vocal contrarians.  I note that they are not just bearish stocks but also Oil and Copper (industrial commodities) and Bullish USD and Gold (and the VIX).  I am always encouraged to find correlations with my own analysis from reputable sources. 

 

https://app.hedgeye.com/e/7Q9/a6jU3p/huge-selling-opportunity?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekend Reading Edition 1 11102018&utm_content=Weekend Reading Edition 1 11102018+CID_b3d200469bda54e69efff6c7c7980aaa&utm_source=campaignmonitor email&utm_term=MACRO INSIGHT Early Look Huge Selling Opportunity

 

I will let my Monthly S&P chart speak for itself.  I remain focused now on identifying a confirmation of a change in trend.  On this I still have 1 scenario that could result in one more final all time high but the chances of that are diminished with Thursday's rally termination in key resistance zones.  The nature of the price action over the coming week or two should be telling, although one can anticipate a few twists in this tale before the punchline.

 

[Mercury]

In a Bloomberg TV snippet recently Megan Greene, chief economist of Manulife asset management ,was asked about 2 opposing views on the markets: 1 that the market called interest terminal rate at 2% but real rates are above this - i.e. panic; 2 the view of JPM that "you wanna buy US equities  because the curve is consistent with a rally in the S&P over the next 12 months (whatever that means...). 

She said that she thought this market recovery would last "a while longer" and that there was "this" consensus view [among economist] that a recession was coming in 2020.  She went on to suggest that when economist come to a consensus on a prediction of when a recession will happen they are usually wrong and suggested it should be pushed out a little further than 2020.

LOL!  She is an economist so based on her own comment she is almost certain to be wrong...  She works for an asset manager so biased for bull runs to never end and recessions to never happen.  When I see these kinds of pronouncements I get ready to sell...

[Trevbeats]

On 06/11/2018 at 14:46, Mercury said:

I agree with your overall assessment @jay, would be interested to know how you come to that.  When is another issue, no point in being right if one is too early or too late, of course exactly when to go Short is strictly a matter for individual methodology.

One thing that tends to be a harbinger of recession is retail.  Particularly with this market/economic cycle, which has been consumer debt driven probably like no other in history.  There have been a series of well documented retail collapses over the past year or so and prior to that the tell tale signs of multiple sales events as stock doesn't shift.  Recently there was a report of Burberry taking flack for destroying excess stock rather than sell at low costs to preserve their brand and only today we have had another 2 classics in my view as follows:

New Look set to close up to 100 UK stores in radical revamp

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46107834

I particularly "like" the following quotes 

Executive chairman Alistair McGeorge said retailers continued to face "significant headwinds and uncertainties, including Brexit". Brexit it seems is the cause of all woes...

"Clearly the wider retail environment remains challenging and we are not expecting that to change anytime soon. However, we are on the right track and continue to drive further efficiencies across the business," he said. At least he has the integrity not to blame it all on politics...

 

Primark blames weather for sliding sales

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46107833

LOL!  Apparently it was too cold then too hot...  Sounds like Network rail...  I really see trouble ahead when I read these apparent reasons for bad management.  I can't blame them, they are just gaming the system to keep the over inflated salaries and bonuses rolling in, but these kinds of headlines are warning bells for me of an imminent economic cycle reversal and an associated stock market reversal.

Hi sorry to **** in? Are you seeing a down-turn in retail?  and let us not add the brexit to the dish?

[Mercury]

No idea what you are saying @Trevbeats

[Trevbeats]

You mentioned that Primark making lame excuses about the weather, but is the market slowing do you think..? 

[Mercury]

I don't track data on retail other than what gets released on the economic calendar @Trevbeats, perhaps someone else on the Forum who is more data driven can opine on that but from the calendar stuff retail sales have not been rosy and for some time actually.  What I am referring to is more the steady stream of negative news about the retail sector, in particular administrations and store closures of significant players.  Initially commentators were passing this off as a High St vs online dynamic.  There has been, in the UK, a heavy dose of Brexit excuses for corporate under performance (you cannot keep this out of the dish as you say).  And now I am seeing other excuses that seem to me like grasping at straws and should have no place in a serious analysis (I mean the weather?  If people want to buy stuff and the price is right they will do it whatever the weather - and it is not like we are talking blizzard conditions of anything).

The post I made, that you reacted to, was to contrast 2 company's comments on their performance.  Where as 1 did cite the dreaded Brexit they went on to refer to "the wider retail environment remains challenging and we are not expecting that to change anytime soon . However, we are on the right track and continue to drive further efficiencies across the business,"

What this highlights to me is that this retailer thinks the underlying dynamics of retail are bad and will remain so for the foreseeable future.  They are hunkering down and reducing cost to try and survive.  This is recessionary strategy.

The other organisation is still making lame excuses rather than dealing with the real issues.  The lame excuses are as much an indicator of end times to me that the data itself.  People never want to believe the gravy train has hit the buffers.

As to what I think, well I have said it before, I think the end is nigh.  But you will have to assess that for yourself and act accordingly, as we all must do.

[trade247]

reading a very interesting part of the FT which I thought I would share. Possibly behind a pay wall so will add points. May be worth having a watch list "FEAR / DANGER ZONE" Archer style... https://www.ft.com/content/02b493d0-e77c-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3

1. Watch the VIX:  everyone knows this one right? Interestingly something I didn't know is that "The index is structured so that if investors expect S&P 500 fluctuations to average 1 per cent a day for the next month, the Vix level is about 20 — roughly its long-run average."
2. SKEW: based on price of options but the curve skew. Range typically from 100 to 150 where 100 shows stock market gains are roughly normal
3. Yield curve: a well known contender and relates to the yield curve of bonds. "...most of the time the yield curve slopes upwards. But when it “inverts” — when short-term bond yields are actually higher than longer-term ones — it has been typically presaged an economic recession."
4. The dollar: "Dollars are the lubricant that oils the global economic system, and spikes in demand for dollars can be a good sign of financial distress. One way of measuring this is through the “cross-currency basis”. Simplified, the basis is, in effect, the additional cost banks charge for swapping one currency for another in the derivatives market."

5. Financial conditions (https://www.ft.com/content/28d0ff38-d956-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8) are a set of indices which benchmark the broader market. They are typically designed to gain when markets are distressed. Most famous is Goldmans Financial Conditions Index. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/case-for-financial-conditions-index.html

[Mercury]

All interesting @cryptotrader, many thanks for sharing.  I think you have to look at these as corroborating indicators rather than triggers as such, at least for me.  Take the Vix for example, it essentially spikes when there is a panic and not before, although you may see a creeping up as nervousness takes hold.  After a period where the Vix was uncommonly low (around 10) in 2017, there have been 3 spikes in 2018 (Jan,Mar and Oct).  All spiked after the drop was already well under way.  In the case of Jan and Oct (the more significant drops) the VIX spiked up from low bases circa 10 +/- to over 20 (29 and nearly 25) in a matter of days.  What is interesting now perhaps is that it has not yet dropped back down to the lower end.  Perhaps it will do so on any rally in stocks and if it does get back down then I would take that as a preparation for another drop in stocks because it is a contrarian indicator of complacency.

Check out my post on "US Stock Market - S&P500", which is also related to this topic and puts my above comments into perspective.  I am basically laying out a position that the end is already nigh, it is just a matter of whether the top of the market is already in or has one more leg up to go.  I am discounting the notion that there is "still a bit more to go" and economists consensus that 2020 will be when the next recession happens as no one has offered any answer to how far and where it will end, because of course they can't!

 

[Mercury]

Check out this video interview with Paul Tudor-Jones on CNBC.  The middle bit about his new socially responsible EFT is interesting but if you have limited time watch until he gets to that and then skip to about 19 mins where he starts talking about what is happening in macro terms.  Note the dates of similarity between now and in the past he mentions (1987; 1989 in Japan; 1999) and check out what happened in those time periods...

Despite saying he things the stock markets can go higher (this was in the Summer) he is also saying the end game is at hand...

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/12/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-paul-tudor-jones.html

[Mercury]

Another PTJ video from 2 Nov this time, talking about his Just EFT again but at about 7 mins he is asked about a Bear market.  This time he mentions the 99/00 top and the 06/07 top and interest rate rising and monetary policy tightening.  He thinks the old highs will be revisited before we go into a Bear market (one more higher high...)

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/11/02/paul-tudor-jones-not-yet-at-bear-market-tipping-point.html

 

[Mercury]

PTJ talks on Goldman Sachs Talks.  Check out what he says about the next recession

 

Then check out what David Stockman's view is, some eye watering numbers regarding the Fed and the anemic US economic growth (note he is a Perma Bear).  We often talk about the impact of interest rate rises on home owners but what about on hugely geared up corporates, especially if they geared up to buy back shared at the top of the market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GrEpg_48_w

 

[Guest PandaFace]

Commuting so can’t watch right now but will when in. Looking forward to it! I love watching videos from the past, talking about the future (at the time) and then being here now to put it all into perspective now we know what’s happened. 

[Guest PandaFace]

Also - given that the whole bear bull cycle is so know, it’s almost like we’re in a self fulfilling prophecy. Like you said were now just looking at ‘when’ and trying to time it 😬 

there’s got to be a short squeeze at the very least.

[Mercury]

We talk about it a lot in forums @cryptotrader but in the mainstream media and Financial Services corporates they still seem to be pushing the messages that there is still life in the old Bull yet.  This is normal mass psychology in that no one wants to hear bad news, in fact they tend to act quite negatively towards people who express such things.  So I think there are still very few people actually willing to talk openly about the end and even PTJ, who made his reputation on calling the 87 Black Monday crash, is reluctant to say get you tin hats out...  Stockman will but he s a Perma Bear and people have stopped listening.  This is all to the good because if everyone was saying it I would doubt it would happen, yet.  Still you can't eliminate the views of PTJ that there may indeed be a final massive rally to end the Bull so have to watch out for that.  I am about 50/50 on whether we have seen the top or will get a new high before the final turn but I must say I had not really considered the PTJ idea that there could be a large rally, he didn't say to where of course but there is a technical argument for much further than, say 28000 on the Dow.

Hmm...  Well all we can do is watch price action lay down the data and act accordingly.

[Mercury]

MSM news reports are an interesting barometer of the winds of change at markets tops and pre-recession.  When everything is out of control (like in the late 80s) you get outlandish excesses but also massive disconnects and crazy, overly hyped up schemes.  SpaceX; Hyperloop; Virgin Galactic etc etc.

But just look at the news on BBC website today. 2 headlines:

1. Hockney painting sells for $90m
2. University given £1m bailout by regulators

This is an example of the social inequality Paul Tudor-Jones is talking about regarding his JUST fund.  In the corporate world some people have been talking about a real change in corporate governance and I read an article recently about how public markers are defunct, time to take companies private...

It only end with a bang and then we can think about reconstructing with a different, more sustainable, philosophy.  While I can't do much yet about the reconstructing I can profit from the bang, if I know it is coming and keep analysing the market and talking to other who are doing the same to identify when it has keeled over.  There wont be a sign saying this has happened...

[Mercury]

So Paul Tudor-Jones thinks there will (could) be another leg up before "the big one", well no one in his position will call the top but in essence he did in 1987, he just didn't publicise it until after the fact.  I was interested to hear him draw parallels with past tops and drops, he said that when central banks withdrew support last time there was a push up and then a top off.  But have we already had that, he said this in the Summer, but also just as the last drop bottomed out...

His comments spurred me to look again at past drops.  I picked 2007, partly because he mentioned it but also because, unlike 1987, I believe 2007 was about to become the great reset until the central banks stepped in.  Now there is nothing else they can do so I believe that the next drop will give up all the post 2009 gains fueled by central bank profligacy and then pick up where the 2007 Bear left off to finish the job.  The idea is that such a massive reset is needed to change the Financial markets for good, not dissimilar to what PTJ is on about with his JUST ETF.

So how does 2007 look vs today.  Well just have a look at the 2 charts below...

But before anyone gets too excited, the Jan/Feb2018 correction traced out a very similar pattern so nothing here is conclusive.  However if this current phase acts also similarly then we could expect a turn at the Fib62% or 76/78% and then it comes down to whether price then breaks down through support to make a lower low or bounces off to begin a rally phase.  As always, it is all about watching price action to see where it is most likely to head next.

 

[Mercury]

[Guest FogDog]

When considering location of equity (wealth) and production, not always totally aligned to geographic location, which is principally what your piece is talking about, being a shift from USA to China, you have to remember that China's population is huge and grew 5.5million in 2018 but it also emitted 350,000 in net migration.

Population is becoming less significant to production. Resources is more a limiting factor. Higher population densities make the satisfaction of demand cheaper stripping out transportation cost, but they make resources relatively scarcer.

The bigger population of China should not be seen as a force to an equilibrium that aligns with the proposition you put.

A lot I think depends upon how China can improve the position of those who are not overpopulated as the price for a drawdown of those countries resource reserves, or secondly how corrupt those with power in those countries can be found to be putting personal self interest ahead of the interests of all.

And corruption seems to be heading in a bear market at the moment. There have been some big scalps in recent years.

In summary, people are no longer production drivers. Resources are the limiting factor. Technology will tend to be evenly accessible. I'm not saying reverse the trend term in your function. I am saying you might have its coefficient a little high?

[Caseynotes]

Very interesting interview with Stanley F. Druckenmiller discusses the next big downturn, the signals he is watching and what the final trigger will be (what but not when). Reveals how he started shorting too early (July), got a **** nose but still waiting.

Stanley F. Druckenmiller partnered George Soros through the 80's and 90's but rarely gives interviews himself. In this (one and a half hour) interview he talks about the economy, his trading and how he trades and what he is looking for. Down to earth style and easy to follow also talks fundamental and technical analysis. 

Many other topics including the affect on the markets of algos, (interesting side point, the really big bear algos are set to go off on a 2% drop). Very insightful interview throughout.

https://www.realvision.com/stanley-druckenmiller-interview

[Caseynotes]

A look back at yesteryear. >

[Mercury]

Great video interview @Caseynotes, hearing directly from these famous and highly successful guys is always illuminating.  As always their war stories about mistakes and how they handle losing streaks etc is great but I was particularly drawn to the overall assessments of the economic mismanagement of the Central Bankers (and governments) and the fact that he has already gone Bearish.  Drucker seems to be less disposed than PTJ to more life in the old Bull, although he does seem to be holding on to his big tech stocks...  He references a big blow out on Tech stocks, maybe into Christmas and then maybe the Bear.  However today's price action suggests to me that the Nasdaq is now weaker than the Large Caps, which would be another divergence and probably tally with the high already in.  The plot thickens...

[Caseynotes]

Yes @Mercury, I liked the guy, he talked straight and frank on a wide range of topics, not pushing a particular view just summing up as he saw it (and using is own money to bet that way, win and lose). When he got the timing wrong he knew to back away and just wait. He came across as honest and had the C bankers pretty well summed up too, I liked that quick and easy summing up shuffle through Greenspan > dot com bubble > housing bubble > QE driven equities surge which must run out of steam as QE is steadily withdrawn and interest rates rise. I thought it was a good hour well spent watching the interview.

They didn't talk Trump enough though, as in going forward, and the difference his interventions are making, hundreds of billions $ being repatriated every year,  PMI's on huge highs, unemployment for blacks and hispanics lowest in US history, black business start ups at +400% (not bad for a racist Prez, better than Obama ever did). And if China come to recognise that the US can buy elsewhere and make a deal then that could turn everything on it's head.

[Mercury]

Yeah but Druckenmiller is old school @Caseynotes.  His opinion that Trump was fighting too many trade wars, especially with natural allies of America because he is locked into this America first and fair deal for America is the key problem.  I think his analysis is sound (or course I would do because it fits my own...).  If Trump wanted to have a pop at China ok but also Canada, Mexico, the EU etc etc, America is not so strong that it can stand isolated.  Also Trump is seemingly an egomaniac so he may very well think America and the American President is all powerful but it isn't so.  Presidents often get blamed for things like a bad economy but wrongly unless their policies are bad.  They also take credit for good thing they had nothing to do with.  The job of government is to create an environment where private enterprise can flourish, especially in American, but they cannot take credit for Black Americans actually starting businesses surely or business hiring people surely...

[Caseynotes]

Though Druckenmiller thinks the spark will be interest rate rises I think it is more likely to be Trump related @Mercury. His lowering of corporate tax resulted in profit repatriation of US companies rising from $38 Bil to around $380 Bil a year which would give a reasonable boost to any economy, so I laughed to hear that on winning the House the first thing the Dems wanted to do was to get it raised it back up to Obama levels. Not only was the tax cut an affront to their ideology the fact that it actually worked just added insult to injury.

[Mercury]

Maybe @Caseynotes, I don't feel I really know enough about the specifics but one thing your example does highlight is the global problem with corporate taxation, a topic I think we have covered on the forum in the past vis a vis Tech stocks paying little tax in countries other than their home base.  This is as much an ethical issue for the corporate world in the sense that if they focus all their efforts on enriching their management and shareholders to the exclusion of where they sit in society and in the context of the planets eco-system (and I am far from being a tree hugger on this) the issues raised by both Druckenmiller and PTJ will be exacerbated and, I believe, be catastrophic in the end.  Therefore, in that context and not being a socialist at all, I think Trump's ideas are bad for both America and the World because they are too simplistic and are playing to the nationalistic groundswell without any constructive notion of how to actually improve the lives of ordinary Americans.  That said, something has to break the camel's back to initiative the reset crash so things can change.  Might as well be Trump...

[Mercury]

Here is something you may find interesting, if only because it is one of the few articles actually announcing a Bear market and going against Wall St received wisdom of buy the dips as a continuing strategy (because there is "still a bit to go" in the Bull yet...).  It is not the only one but you don't yet see this in MSM.  And you wont until it is well on the way.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2018/10/11/fed-balance-sheet-unwind-is-black-swan-for-u-s-stock-market/#31c8a01547fd

Also check out the next link for a comparison of the Fed fund rate vs the SP500:

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/9/us-market-relative/91/interest-rate-sp500

 

Finally check out the Fed balance sheet vs SP500.  What I notice about this is that since 2016 stocks have forged ahead while the Fed balance sheet remained flat.  That suggests to me that the SP500 ought to be oscillating between about 1800 and 2150 (the consolidation zone from which the current rally emerged).  That is a graphical representation of irrational over-exuberance and I wonder what will happen when the Fed really gets going on balance sheet reduction and fund rate increases because the chart below would suggest a sharp return to that consolidation zone.  But that is only to return to where it ought to be at current balance sheet and fund rate levels so what happens after that if both of these things are moving (down and up respectively)?  Answers on a postcard please...

[Mercury]

Look out below!  Tru Dat!

This is an interesting video from Real Vision in that a Chief Market Strategist is seeing only down side on the SP500 for many of the same reasons I do.  However, unlike me, he thinks after a correction it will then head on back up to continue the Central Bank Bull (my term not his).  If he is right then he will align to my long term prognosis in that the first wave down will result in his correction but then he will see another leg up whereas I project a retrace prior to the big one.  I agree the forthcoming drop will be fast, a few months but the nature of the rally thereafter will be telling.  Will it rocket up like we have seen before or meander in a more retrace like fashion?  Time will tell.

BTW, the video dates back to April 2018, before the October tops.

https://www.realvision.com/look-out-below

[Mercury]

Another interesting video from Real Vision for a few reasons:

1. It illustrates how the Pros get it wrong (the video is from April regarding a Bond yield short, which never happened)
2. It highlights a fundamentals picture of Bonds as a safe haven

https://www.realvision.com/lower-for-longer

 

Prompted me to look at Bonds (the US 10 year in particular), which has been falling in price for a while now as yields rise.  Note that yields rise ahead of the Fed rate not in response to it...  One thing that jumps out at me is that in all the recent stock market crashes (or major corrections depending on your perspective) the US 10 year went into a bearish phase prior to (or closely in sync with in the case of 87) the stock market and then rose again as a safe haven from stock market carnage.  It is not as simple as that of course, you also have to look at what was going on at the time.  If you looked at charts on junk bonds and of course the subprime bonds in 07 you would have seen crashes in line with stocks.  So the safe haven argument is not for bonds generally vs stocks but Government bonds (10 yr US and UK gilts for example).

So what? Well if you look at the bond bearish moves I have circled you may see that they are retrace moves (A-B-C) then look at where we are now, the 10 year yield curve has been in a bearish move, so far in an A-B-C.  What would make the yields drop?  Maybe the guy in the video was right but too early...

Charts courtesy of Macro Trends: https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/10-year-treasury