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NFPs are expected at 220k on Fri. Expecting it to be a 200k+ read again and with major upward revisions to Aug numbers historically, this could be USD bullish.

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Hi ,

 

In July 215,000 jobs were added, down from 223,000 (revised from 231,000) added during June, while employment remained unchanged at 5.3%. 

 

Would you be confident enough in having a guess to the nearest thousand as to what the figure will be this time around?

 

, , or any other members, do you have an opinion this month? The closest guess to the nearest thousand will be the Non-farm payroll Champion of the month, and I'll hand the award out on Friday afternoon!

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Well below expectations.  Although overall jobless figure down to 5.1%.

 

I cant see a September rate rise now.  More likely December.

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Well below expectations indeed . 

 

 was slightly closer though with his prediction, and takes the coveted Non farm payroll Champion of the month.

 

Until next time...

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Was a difficult one to call. Thought it would be worse than expected but the scale of how much was finger in the air time though. Still, an award is an award, :)

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I wont give a guess as to the actual figure that is released today. However, I pulled up a few historical charts to look at previous price performance.

 

First, historical performance:

Date

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov 3, 2017

261K

312K

18K

Oct 6, 2017

-33K

82K

169K

Sep 1, 2017

156K

180K

189K

Aug 4, 2017

209K

182K

231K

Jul 7, 2017

222K

175K

152K

 

 

 

 

Note the last three periods, the forecasts have not been met.

 

Looking at the Dow Jones, I have captured below some images of the hourly chart at the point the data is released.

Nov 17

a.png

 

Oct 17

b.png

 

Aug 17

c.png

 

Over the last few months the typical reaction has been a temporary sell-off, followed by resumption of the upward trend. I am keen to follow this month and see how it unravels.

 

You may want to use the hashtag #NFP or #NFPGUESSES on Twitter or social media if you are interested, this figure can create quite a stir in the markets.

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Go on, having a guess wont hurt you and there used to be a forum badge for being closest. Though probably the Average Hourly Earnings figure will count more as to whether there will be a rate hike or not from the FOMC data release on Wednesday (13th) unless the NFP figure is devastating.

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What I would say is that any weakness in the market could provide an opportunity for getting a position on the EOY rally. Good luck all!

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NFP today  1:30 pm, a reasonable sized beat on yesterday's ADP nfp figure may hint at a high figure today and if average earnings is good should strengthen the dollar, which looks cheap, and divert money away from Dow, which looks expensive (all time high yesterday).

 

If this scenario were to play out the knock on affect would likely bring the eurusd down along with ftse and dax.

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List of Bank's NFP guesses, er, forecasts based on exhaustive research and analysis.

 

nfp1.PNG

 

 

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