Jump to content

NFPs


Guest scorpfx

Recommended Posts

Guest scorpfx

NFPs are expected at 220k on Fri. Expecting it to be a 200k+ read again and with major upward revisions to Aug numbers historically, this could be USD bullish.

Link to comment

Hi ,

 

In July 215,000 jobs were added, down from 223,000 (revised from 231,000) added during June, while employment remained unchanged at 5.3%. 

 

Would you be confident enough in having a guess to the nearest thousand as to what the figure will be this time around?

 

, , or any other members, do you have an opinion this month? The closest guess to the nearest thousand will be the Non-farm payroll Champion of the month, and I'll hand the award out on Friday afternoon!

___________________________________

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

 

 

Link to comment

Well below expectations indeed . 

 

 was slightly closer though with his prediction, and takes the coveted Non farm payroll Champion of the month.

 

Until next time...

Link to comment
  • 2 years later...

I wont give a guess as to the actual figure that is released today. However, I pulled up a few historical charts to look at previous price performance.

 

First, historical performance:

Date

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov 3, 2017

261K

312K

18K

Oct 6, 2017

-33K

82K

169K

Sep 1, 2017

156K

180K

189K

Aug 4, 2017

209K

182K

231K

Jul 7, 2017

222K

175K

152K

 

 

 

 

Note the last three periods, the forecasts have not been met.

 

Looking at the Dow Jones, I have captured below some images of the hourly chart at the point the data is released.

Nov 17

a.png

 

Oct 17

b.png

 

Aug 17

c.png

 

Over the last few months the typical reaction has been a temporary sell-off, followed by resumption of the upward trend. I am keen to follow this month and see how it unravels.

 

You may want to use the hashtag #NFP or #NFPGUESSES on Twitter or social media if you are interested, this figure can create quite a stir in the markets.

Link to comment

Go on, having a guess wont hurt you and there used to be a forum badge for being closest. Though probably the Average Hourly Earnings figure will count more as to whether there will be a rate hike or not from the FOMC data release on Wednesday (13th) unless the NFP figure is devastating.

Link to comment
  • 4 weeks later...

NFP today  1:30 pm, a reasonable sized beat on yesterday's ADP nfp figure may hint at a high figure today and if average earnings is good should strengthen the dollar, which looks cheap, and divert money away from Dow, which looks expensive (all time high yesterday).

 

If this scenario were to play out the knock on affect would likely bring the eurusd down along with ftse and dax.

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,043
    • Total Posts
      95,434
    • Total Members
      43,656
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Turtlebot
    Joined 30/09/23 13:08
  • Posts

    • The crypto market appears to be showing signs of recovery, with significant improvements in the Sharpe Ratios of Bitcoin, BGB, and Ethereum, according to an article published on Friday.  The Sharpe Ratio, a measure used to understand the return of an investment compared to its risk, has seen a notable increase for both cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio has risen from -2.4 to 0.68, while Ethereum and BGB have also experienced a similar uptrend. This change signifies higher returns at lower risk, which is expected to attract more investors to the crypto market. In addition to the improved Sharpe Ratios, increased network activity and trading volume as shown on CEXs like Bitget, Binance, and a few DEXs are suggesting a healthier market state. The current trading prices of Bitcoin, reflect this overall positive market sentiment. As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading at $27,069.73, BGB at $0.454 and Ethereum at $1,677.89. These developments are significant as they indicate reduced risk in the crypto market. The increase in the Sharpe Ratios for Bitcoin, BGB, and Ethereum suggests that these cryptocurrencies are becoming less risky investments, which could potentially lead to an influx of new investors into the market.  Could this rise in Sharpe Ratios coupled with increased network activity and trading volume point towards a recovering and less risky crypto market?
    • Hi, That's great, thank you very much. Very helpful! Many thanks.
    • Texas Instruments Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 29 September 23 TXN Stock Market Analysis: We have been moving lower as expected from the previous forecast. Looking for continuation lower as there is an incomplete bullish sequence. Looking for extension lower in wave {iii}. Downside target stands below wave (W). TXN Elliott Wave Count: Wave {iii} of C. TXN Technical Indicators: Below al averages.   TXN Trading Strategy: Looking for shorts on the way down.   TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!       Texas Instruments Inc., TXN: 4-hour Chart, 29 September 23 Texas Instruments Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TXN Stock Market Analysis: As we are getting an overlapping structure in what could be a wave {iii} there is a high chance we will see an acceleration lower to then see a series of fours and fives.   TXN Elliott Wave count:  Wave (iii) of {iii}. TXN Technical Indicators: 20EMA as resistance. TXN Trading Strategy: Looking for shorts on the way down.
×
×
  • Create New...
us