Jump to content

I loooove hindsight!


dmedin

Recommended Posts

OK but can you learn from it?  It is all well and good seeing where history tells you you should have made a trade but was there a way to get sufficient indicators to actually trade it?  This is where you need a methodology to provide insights into where in the cycle a market is and where the breakouts might occur.  There are several different methods on display on the forum and a wealth of information available to research and practice, isn't this what you need to do?

I am always amazed that the majority of people come into this with no training and no study months put in.  Is there any other field of endeavor where people would expect to succeed without training and practice?  And by the way I include myself in that group as that was exactly what I did at first too.  Cost me a lot to learn the hard way...

Link to comment

@Mercury

Where is the sense and methodology in a market that drops 5 - 6% after a Donald Trump tweet and then recoups 100% of its losses and then some in the space of three days?

The answer is no, I can't really - because whether or not the price will follow the indicators is uncertain.  All I can do is limit the amount that I might lose.

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment

Ah well there is one area we differ @dmedin.  I don't care what Trump, or anyone else tweets not why the market participants chose to send the market down and then back up.  I just care that it follows my road map and triggers my trading set ups, which it did, both ways.  I chose to make sense of the market through the use of technical analysis, which at its heart is about mapping human psychology acting within a crowd.  This is not new, the main elements were developed as much as a hundred years ago and still work today because people have not changed.  They say the market has memory.  That isn't really accurate.  What is really happening is that market participants (humans) are reacting to similar sets of circumstances in similar ways - Fear and Greed; Greed and Fear never-ending.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
7 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@dmedin,

 

The key is to have a trading methodology that can help you to make assumptions, predictions and forecasts based on the signals / indicators you choose to put the odds and probability more in your favour in terms of which direction the trend is going to take and which trades are more likely than not to go in your favour than not. Trading is all about using the data and tools at our disposable to make these accurate assumptions, predictions and forecasts as we are trading in real time basing our trading decisions on future price action and what we think is more likely to happen than not. 

 

 

I have been trying since September last year and have not found a single method that can be consistently profitable on any time frame in any market ...

Probably time to quit and stick to 2% saving accounts.  That's better than losing thousands of pounds :D

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

I was anticipating the spike of the FTSe Yesterday.  Went up in two stages.  I marked where I would have placed at both points.  At the end of the day, I'd have pocketed £200.

So i figured, OK, I was right on those 2, I'll get on board.  Now I figured, it was due a pull back after those 2 ups, but went against my gut to Follow The Trend.

Went down lolololol.  -£23.

So now today, watching Uber and FTSE.  Figured both going down.  put them side by side and figured i'd go with Uber, but marked my short of the FTSE.

Uber went up and cost me £13, and FTSE went south...would have pocekted £85 lololololololol.

I can't win.

Even when I'm right I'm wrong!

Edited by nit2wynit
  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      16,607
    • Total Posts
      79,290
    • Total Members
      65,089
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Pilgrims
    Joined 30/11/21 14:53
  • Posts

    • Market data to trade on Wednesday: AUD/USD; DAX40; WTI With focus on growth and jobs data, Daniela Sabin Hathorn looks at trade setups around AUD/USD, DAX 40, and EUR/USD. Focus will also be on the oil market as the latest crude oil inventories will give traders further insight into the possible effects of the latest Covid-19 variant on the price of US crude. https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/market-data-to-trade-on-wednesday--aud-usd--dax40--wti-211130
    • USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK DXY dipping into trend support dating to June Weekly reversal candle at odds with support How things unfold at support will be determinant US DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: DIP BRINGING TREND SUPPORT INTO PLAY The US Dollar Index (DXY) is weakening a bit after sprinting to its best levels since July 2020. This has the DXY at an interesting spot, with it sitting on a strong slope dating to June. It is also in confluence with a level from last summer, but the focal point is the slope. Last week’s reversal induced a bearish reversal candle that implies momentum could continue lower. With that in mind, testing support following a reversal makes for an interesting test of the DXY’s multi-month uptrend. The general rule of thumb is that support is support until it isn’t, and so for the immediate future as long as support holds then the USD’s outlook is seen as neutral at worst. A hard turn off the line could negate the bearish weekly reversal at some point. However, if we see support break, then further weakness is expected. In the event we see this play out the next significant level to watch is the March 2020 low that was validated in September of last year and this year. The level is right around 94.67. This would make the for deepest retracement since the uptrend began in June and doesn’t necessarily mean the trend is over, but it would be important to see that key level hold if longs are to maintain their appeal. For now, would-be longs may want to use slope support as a line to take an entry from, or wait and see if there is a reversal higher first. This latter approach would perhaps offer up a more appealing set-up with there being a low created on the slope before taking entry. For those currently holding long positions the slope could be used to determine trailing stops. For shorts, the trend is up even if support breaks, but a break of support is seen as likely to usher in more selling. US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) DAILY CHART DXY Chart by TradingView Resources for Forex Traders Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.   Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst, 30th November 2021. DailyFX
    • Great, so the abundance of energy will be used to solve maths problems (mining) to perpetuate a colossal pyramid scheme. I despair, surely all these natural resources and energy could be put to a better use?
×
×
  • Create New...