FTSE100 - Daily Trades

[dmedin]

Too late now, my bonnie wee bairns.  Wait for 'the inevitable pullback'!

[dmedin]

Who saw this coming, and did the right thing by buying on Wednesday (or Thursday morning) and holding till this very self-same hour?!!!

And - is it going up or down from here?  (or is it just going to 'shake it all around' )

Edited September 27, 2019 by dmedin

[DSchenk]

Haha, nice reversal indeed.

Not holding anything here, just jumping on intra-day moves

[DSchenk]

Morning everyone.

Horrible start in the new week for me. Hope you had a better one.

6 Trades, 1 BE, 5 Losses
Max Loss hit

Trade 1, Long, BE
It all could've started so well. Spike down on market open. I enter long for a VWAP reversal. Trade played perfectly and swinged back. I had 16 Points unrealised profits after 2 mins on the day. Failed to take profits and sat and watched how it all went to thin air. Exit at BE. ****!!!

Trade 2, Short, Loss, Down 4 Points
We're making new lows, so I though we see a rejection at mR1. I enter short, get stopped out right above mR1.

Trade 3, Short, Loss, Down 10 Points
Still looks like a rejection at mR1. So I enter again - and get stopped out again. ****!!!

Trade 4,  Long, Loss, Down 14 Points
I decide to wait and watch a bit. We see a move back up to daily highs, then a pullback. I enter on the pullback, but get stopped out as the pullback extends to a retreat to 9EMA.

Trade 5, Long, Loss, Down 16 Points
Missed the nice bounce off 50EMA with move back up to daily highs. This time I play the 9EMA bounce. Get stopped out. Not my day apparently.

Trade 6, Short, Loss, Down 22 Points, daily max loss hit
One trade left in the daily budget. As we break VWAP I enter short. This time been right about the direction as we can see on the chart in hindsight, but get stopped out anyway. Margin of error 0.5 points. Really not my day.

 

[Mercury]

Fib 62% and NMD at the high still holding sway for me @DSchenk.  Mini double top this morning then drop in a possible EWT1-2 (brown).  I went Short with a tiny risk stop off the previous high.  A lower low will result in me moving stops to BE to guard against a reversal.  If this move holds, while GBP looks like it may go on a rally, then a wave A - B (green) is the likely scenario.  If it reverses and breaks higher we are looking at a rally up to circa 7570+ IMO.

 

[dmedin]

By Jove I think you're right old boy, FTSE 100 does look a lot like it may drop.

[DSchenk]

Nice analysis @Mercury

So far we're looking at a spot landing at the daily pivot and reversal from there up until mR1 (pretty much spot on as well) and bounce straight off there again.
I like Pivots - why do I keep loosing money 

[Mercury]

Lower low and short term support break on the cards?  Bearish set up still holds sway for me, at least for the short term.  Coincidentally Silver looks like it is about to put in a relief rally, Stocks and PMs do seem to be short term correlated at present.

[DSchenk]

Yep, does look bearish today Mercury.

I'm starting the new month and Q4 green, although it has been a tough fight today.

First 3 trades went into the red, then I had to fight my way back and ended the day up 3 Points.
3 Points up are better than 10 Points down, so I'll take that as a win.

9 Trades, 4 Wins, 2 BE, 3 Losses

Trade 1, Long,  Loss, Down 8 Points
Expected a bounce off VWAP; entered long, got stopped out

Trade 2, Long, Loss, Down 14 Points
Expected a bounce off Pivot; entered long, got stopped out

Trade 3, Long, Loss, Down 18 Points (almost daily max loss hit)
Tried again the bounce off pivot. Again got stopped out

Trade 4, Short, Win, Back to down 12 Points
I was accepting the break of pivot and went short. worked out, however got stopped out in profit zone on first candle to make a new high. Could've been more profit in this one

Trade 5, Short, Win, Back to daily BE
Went straight short again, worked out as well. and covered profits on daily BE.

Trade 6, Long, Win, Up 1 Point
Was supposed to be a quick scalp in the heat of the momentum. Secured that point

Trade 7, Short, BE
Stopped out at BE, probably set to BE too early, but didn't want to risk going negative again.

Trade 8, Short, Win, Up 3 Points
Went straight back in short and this time got the 3 points.

Trade 9, Long, BE
Tried one more trade even already well over the 90 mins mark. Rejection at mS1 from the bottom side and then stop out at BE. I'm calling it a day.

 

[DSchenk]

Wasn't able to trade this morning as going to the airport.

And then the FTSE does this...

60 Point move in the first hour alone.

You've got to be kidding me  Someone is planning this - who are you?  

[DSchenk]

Also not going to trade until next Tuesday as out of the country. So catch you all next week again!

[DSchenk]

I'm back in the game!
Straight back in with a 10 points loss over 11 trades.

Will keep my updates a bit shorter now.

Overall short biased today with 9 short positions and 2 long ones.

Lost first 3 trades to hit almost max loss of 20 points on the way up from opening level to Pivot Point.
Then worked myself half way back. Things got a bit better once we saw that rejection at the Pivot Point and was able to catch a few nice moves on the downwards trend.

Turned out at 10.10 am would've been a nice long opportunity, but had already finished trading by then.

Was trialling today trading on a 1 minute chart after losing the first 3 trades. Might be better suited than the 5min chart for my trading style. Will trial again tomorrow.
Is anyone trading the FTSE on 1min or 5min chart and can tell what's more useful?

Also had to top up my account again, cause was running out of margin to trade the FTSE and NASDAQ. This is my 10th account now - maybe also my last...we'll see

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, DSchenk said:

Is anyone trading the FTSE on 1min or 5min chart and can tell what's more useful?

I'd ditch the volume because it's too slow and late for what you're trying to do and instead look to ride the PA rhythm by using something leading like Stoch instead. So still using pivots to look for possible turns but keeping in tune with the overall PA. see pic.

 

[DTT]

Hi

From experience I can give the following suggestions:

• Long Positions are good because the FTSE will never hit zero but has (in theory) unlimited upside.
• Allow for a big margin to absorb volatility. IG allow for 50p trades so if you don't have thousands on your account, consider smaller trade sizes
• Long Positions are good because you can scoop up easy points when the FTSE goes ex-dividend every Wednesday and this will off-set fees charged for positions held overnight.
• Keep an eye on price movement ranges and support/resistance levels as you may get caught behind a major level of resistance.
• Every time you close a position in loss, you reduce your account size which inhibits your ability to trade (see point 2).

Hope this helps?

 

All the best

Edited October 9, 2019 by burfordcraig

[dmedin]

Toss a coin - go long if it's heads, go short if it's tails.

You've got a better chance of winning than if you use 'technical analysis'

[DSchenk]

2 hours ago, burfordcraig said:

Hi

From experience I can give the following suggestions:

Cheers for the feedback @burfordcraig

Dissecting your points.

• Long Positions are good because the FTSE will never hit zero but has (in theory) unlimited upside.

That only works with unlimited margin and unlimited time. As in practice the FTSE can drop 1000 points and your account gets wiped out.
I agree in terms of long term investing though. Over the long term, markets tend to rise rather than fall, because we make progress as a society/human race.

• Allow for a big margin to absorb volatility. IG allow for 50p trades so if you don't have thousands on your account, consider smaller trade sizes

That's the strategy of having a loose stop-loss rather than a tight one, I guess? Not sure what the strategy would be in that case as would it not be better to cut losses quickly and then just re-enter at a later point once we see a reversal?

• Long Positions are good because you can scoop up easy points when the FTSE goes ex-dividend every Wednesday and this will off-set fees charged for positions held overnight.

Never heard of this one. Can you explain?
Does it mean if I take a long position Tuesday night and hold until Wednesday I get some easy points?

• Keep an eye on price movement ranges and support/resistance levels as you may get caught behind a major level of resistance.

agree with that

• Every time you close a position in loss, you reduce your account size which inhibits your ability to trade (see point 2).

Makes sense, although still better to close at a small loss than hold until the account blows up, I guess?

[DSchenk]

No trades today

Must have picked up @nit2wynit's Flu. Going bullish on my health first

[nit2wynit]

32 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

No trades today

Must have picked up @nit2wynit's Flu. Going bullish on my health first

oh good luck with it pal.  wiped me out.  Still recovering.
However, here's some for today.  Each with a 1k account.  From left, £20 Stop, £50 Stop, £19.  The one on the right already failed at -£19.

I'll let the others run and adjust Stop to zero cost.

Edit, Looked like they peaked so got out for +£162 -£19 =+£143

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

Just pulled another 91 going short on Bed Beyond.  Having a bath now. 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by nit2wynit

[DSchenk]

Back in the seat this morning, health is on the rise.

Equity in account is falling steadily though.

No clue how to trade this - might need to look for another strategy cause this doesn't seem to work out for me

[Caseynotes]

31 minutes ago, DSchenk said:

No clue how to trade this - might need to look for another strategy cause this doesn't seem to work out for me

Ftse is normally quite tame but the brexit uncertainty is causing a lot of whipsawing on the market open, might be better to let that period pass before jumping in. Indicators can't keep up as new orders are processed and new volume is just dumped on the market.

[Mercury]

Brexit Schmexit!  After the referendum result was announced the FTSE went on a tear, along with all the other stock indices.  GBP was hit, although that was due and GBPUSD already well in a long term Bear market as a result of poor balance of payments, notably especially with the EU.  Short term fluttering aside the biggest driver for the FTSE100 is the US stock indices as a reflection of the sentiment towards the global economic conditions, which are deteriorating, fact!  My view is that we are at the end of a major bull cycle so trading stocks is especially risky now until the direction is clear (that could yet be another final bull surge to a blow off top BTW).  Just look at a long term chart for any of the major indices and you will see that they have been in consolidation, albeit with new ATHs on US large caps but only on these, which is a notable divergence.  Since Jan 2018 the Dow is up 290 points (yes just a measly 290 points), buy and hold?  I don't think so.  There have been some fantastic medium term tradable swings since then and the best and fasted have been bearish but you need clear triggers to spot the swings.

One thing you could consider @DSchenk is either standing aside until things become clearer or trading another asset type until things become clearer on stocks.  USD has been the asset to be in since Jan 2018, Gold since Aug 2018, Bitcoin since Dec 2018, if you have the stomach for it.  That said, I am clearly coming at this from a longer term perspective, very definitely NOT from a day trading perspective but when I did try day trading stocks I could only make it work when I traded with the main trend (i.e. knew which way that was headed) and avoided consolidation ranges as there is too much whipsaw price action.

[Mercury]

PS: @DSchenk, forgot to say, Gold/Silver - Short; USD - Short; Coffee - Short; Stocks - Flat; Oil - maybe Long but yet to trigger.

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, Mercury said:

My view is that we are at the end of a major bull cycle

That's always your view, has been for years, but the market just keeps ignoring you 😆

[DSchenk]

Cheers for the comms guys.

It's time again for some heavy brainstorming how to crack this nut

Looking at it now, there was this nice 36 point move from 9.00 to 9.20.
Question is how to capture these moves and trade only these moves without losing everything on the ups and downs before and after...

Loo

[Mercury]

Whatever man, there is an old saying, "he who laughs last laughs best".  What I was offering DSchenk was my opinion, no need to laugh at it, you can just disagree, respectfully, or maybe you can't...

FWIW, @DSchenk, back in 2016 I though that might be it, many people did, but it turned out to be a consolidation, which the charts revealed, that's life, still there was a good bear market phase to profit from, which I did.  I have been long biased stocks since the consolidation became apparent but watching for the potential end.  Now, since 2018, we are again in a period of either consolidation or termination.  Time will tell which it is.  If one is not open to both then one is locked into ones bias.  What was it CaseyNotes said recently? "Once founded they hold their 'opinions' like it was a bar of gold".  Buy the dips strategy in the face of such global economic deterioration seems like such a thing to me.  So actually this all goes to prove my point, in consolidation phases, better be careful.

[Mercury]

FWIW @DSchenk, and it may not be worth much as I don't look beyond the 1H charts typically, I see the FTSE100 rallying to break 7250 to join other indices.  The issue you have right now is the FTSE100, bizarrely, seems to have been held up by the very strong GBP but ultimately the FTSE and the Dax and doubtless others, all wait to see what will happen when the US large caps open.  So if you are intent on trading in the morning (European time), as I think you seem to be doing from your past posts, you are likely to hit whipsaw price action as the main moves seem to come from 14.30 (uk time) onwards. 

[Caseynotes]

yes, brexit schmexit, the usual discourtesy towards other's opinions, the gold bar is the one you've been holding since the beginning of 2016 which is how long I've been laughing for.

anyway.

 

 

 

[DSchenk]

@Mercury Yeah, I started trading the NSADAQ from 14.30 recently after my ATR analysis.

There clearly are some solid opportunities in there, but it turned out to be similar difficult to capture on those as with the FTSE so far.

It seems to me I have to fundamentally change some parameter with my entries and stops, but haven't quite figured out what.

I was once thinking about not using a stop at all and just wait for the price to eventually turn around and move towards my entry level again. For example if I was still holding my first position today, I would be in a profit right now, in fact I could've captured almost 20 points.
Obvious problem with this strategy is, that this may work on 99 days and then the one day comes, where you just happen to hit the high/low of a trend and your account blows up

[DSchenk]

Thanks for the analysis @Caseynotes

Should've avoided the 'market open whipsaw' clearly

Not too sure yet about that Stochastic indicator. Why not just use an RSI instead? Seems to look similar to me, but RSI looks simpler with only one line