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Gold Prediction

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This is one of those comical times when people contradict themselves every day.  Josh's 'trade of the week' was short gold, one day later it's long.  Just goes to show how little use technical analysis is when there is no clear trend in the market and when you're trying to spot 'patterns' in extremely short-range charts with arbitrary points of S/R.  He is also 'predicting' that the indices will have a deep retracement, so let's see what's being said this time tomorrow.

Edited by dmedin

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16 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

That's a far better analysis than many of the daily ones we get on IG ...

If you want I can speak with the analysts at IG about doing a mix of longer and shorter time periods for TA rather than just dailies. 

 

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Thanks for the post @love4ever4nature, just to clarify, are you saying Gold will turn back bearish when you say bounce back?  If so can you elaborate on your reasoning and have you any view what happens after that? 

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PS: any reason you put this post in FX and not commodities?  Do you view Gold as more of a currency than a commodity?

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On 22/11/2019 at 13:52, CharlotteIG said:

If you want I can speak with the analysts at IG about doing a mix of longer and shorter time periods for TA rather than just dailies. 

 

Hey, I was wondering why Josh was talking about shorting gold on that week's 'trade of the week' because he was saying at the start that he 'wouldn't necessarily sell at this price' (so why was short gold chosen as trade of the week in the first place then), and the fact that he changed his mind a day later.

I'd rather see the analysts take their time and do some good quality analysis.

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I don't see any compelling reason to go long or short on gold right now based on this chart but it's fascinating how it's not dropping further as the indices rise.  On the COT reports you can see that big speculators are still long on gold.

 

1826154730_SpotGold_20191128_17_21.thumb.png.44baa5e8d3724ed69abb4e1c308483ce.png

 

cotbase-gold-futures-cot-net-positions.thumb.jpg.48806f6c930727a893fd023d55274e6b.jpg

Edited by dmedin
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14 hours ago, dmedin said:

I don't see any compelling reason to go long or short on gold right now based on this chart but it's fascinating how it's not dropping further as the indices rise.  On the COT reports you can see that big speculators are still long on gold.

yes, you can see on the long term chart the large specs have not abandoned their long positions, well not yet anyway.

image.thumb.png.5d127803fbb9a20520cf187b63cc693f.png

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On ‎28‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 18:18, elle said:

no trend atm - needs a big catalyst   -

Capture gold 1.PNG

Capture g2.PNG

Well, I think there is a current catalyst. See if the previous supply zone holds, otherwise a run up to @  1666 imo

Capture gold.PNG

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Gold > 1600 within a week, come on ye beaut 🐴b🐮

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    • Is that a trick question..? I'm trying to have a broad picture.  And to consider (and develop an understanding of) as many influences on prices as I can.
    • And just so you can 'get where I'm coming from' for the last 6 months here is a data set from Asia I posted way back in February (Daily Dashboard thread). Looks pretty similar doesn't it and certainly a million miles from Ferguson's model predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths.
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