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Thought I'd open a new forum up, now the general elections done. 

Josh Warner had written a great informative piece about the events over the next year: https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/where-next-for-brexit--200124

  • Brexit timeline
  • What is Brexit?
  • What should investors look out for
  • Formal negotiations begin: March 2020
  • EU summit: June 2020
  • Make or break: 26 November 2020
  • Deal or no deal: 31 December 2020
  • What about the UK’s trade with non-EU countries?

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Let me know what you think. If you want any videos or articles on anything specific to help your trading let me know :) 

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The big fat stupid idiot Boris Johnson is planning on using another kind of 'leverage' to 'force' people to accede to England's demands.  Rule Britannia and all that b0llocks.

Quote

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is mulling to use the threat of high tariffs to raise pressure on the European Union, the United States and other nations to strike trade deals with Britain, The Times newspaper reported on Saturday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-usa/uk-to-use-high-tariff-threat-to-raise-pressure-in-trade-negotiations-the-times-idUKKBN1ZO01Y

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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The big fat stupid idiot Boris Johnson is planning on using another kind of 'leverage' to 'force' people to accede to England's demands.  Rule Britannia and all that b0llocks.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-usa/uk-to-use-high-tariff-threat-to-raise-pressure-in-trade-negotiations-the-times-idUKKBN1ZO01Y

I wouldn't worry too much about it, once the Leftist Totalitarians seize power you'll be living in a pod, eating bugs, drinking cockroach milk and working 16 hour days on your laptop controlling robots in factories and warehouses.

Something to look forward to  🤩   

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7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I wouldn't worry too much about it, once the Leftist Totalitarians seize power you'll be living in a pod, eating bugs, drinking cockroach milk and working 16 hour days on your laptop controlling robots in factories and warehouses.

Something to look forward to  🤩   

 

We'll all be so blazed we won't mind 😎

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I know most of you are up to date with Brexit but there's a great time line as well as Sterling analysis around Brexit by DailyFX Analyst, Nick Cawley. 

  • Brexit Departure is Just the First Step as UK-EU Trade Talks Near.
  • UK-EU Trade Talk Timeline
  • Sterling (GBP) Pushing Higher Post-BOE Meeting
  • GBP/AUD Daily Price Chart (MAY 2019 – Jan 31, 2020)
  • GBP/USD Pushing Higher, Eyes 1.3177
  • GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (May 2019 – January 31, 2020)

 

British Pound Latest: Sterling (GBP) Price Rally as The UK Leaves The EU

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Hope nobody here relies on any medication from the NHS.

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Donald Trump will put the interests of corporate America first and demand that the NHS pays higher prices for US drugs in a free-trade deal with the UK, the outgoing British ambassador to Washington has told the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/31/trump-will-put-us-interests-first-in-trade-talks-says-kim-darroch-ambassador

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“Maybe Boris’s relationship with Donald Trump is so fantastic that Trump will give him all this as a gift,” Darroch said. “But are they going to while we’re saying we are not going to have chlorinated chicken, not going to have your hormone-treated beef, not going to have all your genetically modified crops and we are not going to pay twice as much as we do now for American pharmaceuticals.”

 

So basically our future 'relationship' will be based on how much the mob boss of America likes the prime minister.

Sounds really optimistic and empowering.

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  • 4 weeks later...
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Britain also says that, as an independent coastal nation, it will not trade away its fishing rights. At the same time, it is pushing for “legally binding” obligations on access to the European Union market for its important financial services industry.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/britain-on-collision-course-with-eu-with-trade-talks-mandate-idUKKCN20L1AX

 

Keep your hands off our fish, but keep sending your money to the City :D

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  • 2 months later...

Something that has been spoken about a little less but the impact of Brexit on Sterling

This is a piece by Jeremy Naylor an DailyFX, Justin McQueen about what's coming next and the impact it's having on sterling 

 

Let me know what you think of the piece and where you think sterling is heading 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Provided they don't completely hash it up, Brexit means Sterling will appreciate. Probably. The caveat being if it is not a hard Brexit with it's concomitant  tariffs and hazards. A hard Brexit (which is bad for almost everyone) would lead Sterling to devalue some more, sub $1.20 and Euro1.05. If not lower. With a decent deal that is positive for all parties then Sterling may rise to $1.50+ and Euro 1.30+ . That's my position. 

However, our politicians and political advisors are best it seems at serving themselves and not so interested in serving the greater good (one rule for them,one rule for us, like Demonic Cummings for example). Therefore, what is obviously a good thing (a good deal) may easily be compromised by our political elite (again) as opposed compromising for the benefit of the majority. If one were to compare our economic state with other nations and blocs then Sterling is as knackered as any of the competition. Will only be more knackered if we make a bad deal (no deal) the world knows it and will pan our currency with prejudice if we fail to do so. (Make money while seeing your competitor fail) Double bonus if you are not British. 

The negotiations are of paramount importance and must not be pucked up.

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  • 2 weeks later...

GBP/USD is easing back Thursday after a week of gains as the June 30 deadline for the UK to ask for an extension of its Brexit transition period approaches.

So far, there has been little progress in this week’s UK-EU talks on a post-Brexit trade deal but the UK Prime Minister has pledged not to ask for a talks extension to prevent the UK from concluding the transition period at the year-end without a trade agreement.

A poll has suggested that GBP will weaken if no extension is asked for.

The possibility that the UK will fail to agree a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU is increasingly a worry for GBP/USD bulls as the deadline for an extension approaches.

 

Check out the full article here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/06/04/British-Pound-GBP-Latest-GBPUSD-Increasingly-Nervous-About-Brexit-MSE.html 

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  • 4 months later...

GBP PRICE, BREXIT NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

  • UK public sector borrowing in the first half of the current financial year was more than six times the figure a year earlier due to the economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Official data also showed that public-sector debt rose further above the £2 trillion level and reached its highest as a percentage of GDP since 1960.
  • UK inflation in September rose to 0.5% from 0.2%.
  • Nonetheless, GBP/USD held its ground as “risk-on” assets benefited from rising hopes that a US fiscal stimulus package can be agreed.
  • The FTSE 100 index, though, is falling back.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/21/British-Pound-GBP-Latest-GBPUSD-Shrugs-Off-Dire-UK-Borrowing-Data-MSE.html

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Oh look, trillions of dollars sloshing about seeking alpha and very little of it 'trickling down' to actual human beings.  No wonder there is no inflation.  You'd think somebody planned this all out or something*.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-fca/12-million-people-in-britain-will-struggle-to-pay-bills-watchdog-says-idUKKBN2763C5

 

* For those who'd like to know more about it:

https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/download/pdf/Capital-Volume-I.pdf

Edited by dmedin
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  • 4 weeks later...

I've bought around $100k's worth of GBP/USD. If there is a deal, and I now believe that one is likely, we can expect GBP/USD to surge instantly to 1.40 in my opinion. This would bring that pair back in line with levels last seen 2 years ago. Keen to hear what others think.

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